SATURDAY FOOTBALL NEWS AND NOTES

What bettors need to know: Emerald Bowl
By VICTOR RYAN

Miami vs. California (-8, 50)

Against The Spread

Miami is 5-6 ATS, which includes three straight losses vs. the line to close the season.
Cal is 9-3 ATS, including a perfect 7-0 record vs. the line at home (this game is being played just across the San Francisco bay from Berkeley). The over is 8-2-1 in Cal’s last 11 non-conference games.

Line Moves

Cal opened as a 5.5-point favorite and the line has since moved to Cal -7.5. The total has been holding at 49.5 or 50. The over is a combined 14-9 with these two teams.

The Situation

Miami took a step forward this season under second-year coach Randy Shannon after going 5-7 and failing to reach a bowl game in 2007. But the ‘Canes did struggle down the stretch. They controlled their own conference destiny entering the season’s final two weeks and responded with back-to-back losses, including as a 2-point favorite at North Carolina State to close the regular season. Meanwhile, Cal lost all Pac-10 hope with November losses to Southern Cal and Oregon State. Cal did beat two teams currently ranked in the top-25 (Oregon and Michigan State) and appear to be a solid favorite in this one.

Key Matchup

It figures to be between Cal star running back Jahvid Best and a Miami defense that struggled mightily down the stretch. The ‘Canes gave up a combined 691 rushing yards in two losses to close the season. Best, meanwhile, ran for 1394 yards in the regular season and topped the nation at eight yards per carry. He also set a school record with 311 yards rushing against Washington. If the ‘Canes can’t control Best they could be in for a long night.

Head to Head

Cal and Miami haven’t played since a 52-24 Hurricanes win in 1990. The Bears have only beaten Miami once in three all-time meetings, 9-7, on the road in 1964.

Bowl History

The ‘Canes had been to nine straight bowl games before having that streak snapped with a 5-7 campaign last year. Cal is making its sixth straight bowl appearance. The Bears have won their last three bowl games, including vs. Air Force 42-36 in the Armed Forces Bowl last year.

What bettors need to know: Champs Sports Bowl
By MILLER GROUP

Wisconsin vs. Florida State, December 27th, 4:30 pm et on ESPN

Line movement

The Seminoles have held fairly steady at –5 while the total has been bet down slightly to 52 from 53.

Key injuries

The biggest blow the Badgers suffered all season was the loss of tight end Travis Beckum. He had gotten off to a slow start before breaking his leg back on October 25, but there’s no questioning his importance to this offense after hauling in 75 catches and six touchdowns a year ago.

Florida State lost cornerback Darius McClure for the season in mid-November but is expected to have wide receiver Preston Parker back from an ankle injury.

We’re going streaking

This will be the Seminoles 27th consecutive Bowl appearance, the longest streak in the nation thanks to Michigan’s no-show here in 2008.

The Badgers second home

Wisconsin is going bowling in the state of Florida for the fifth consecutive year. It’s probably not the destination they were hoping for after being ranked as high as ninth in the nation earlier in the season. They were expected to contend for the Big Ten title thanks to a boatload of returning talent.

Tough Hill to climb

If the Badgers are going to win this game, it will be on the back, or should I say, legs of running back P.J. Hill. The QB situation has been a mess all season long with Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer both struggling, throwing 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions combined. Hill was the bright spot, running for over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Ponder this

The Seminoles offense finally shook off the cobwebs and turned in a strong season, thanks in large part to dual-threat QB Christian Ponder. The sophomore threw for 12 touchdowns and ran for four more, helping put up at least 28 points in eight games. The Noles had done so just eight times in the previous two seasons combined.

What bettors need to know: Meineke Car Care Bowl
By ALEX SMART

West Virginia vs. North Carolina (pick ‘em, 45)

Line movement

Oddsmakers opened the Meineke Car Care Bowl at a pick ‘em, with the total coming in at 44. The total has since risen to 45, while the line has held steady at a pick ‘em at most sportsbooks.

Head-to-head

This is the second meeting between these teams since 1997. North Carolina beat the Mountaineers in ’97, 20-13, narrowly covering the 6.5-point spread.

On top of Bowl Mountain

West Virginia has won its last three bowl appearances, including last season’s 48-28 upset victory over the Oklahoma Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl. The Mountaineers are 2-1 ATS during that stretch, but the non-BCS bowl games have been a nightmare for them. WVU bettors have dropped four straight ATS, with the average defeat coming by 14.5 points.

Tar Heel rising

North Carolina will be looking for its first bowl victory since 2001 when it takes on the Mountaineers. In their only other bowl appearance since ’01, the Tar Heels lost 37-24 as 2.5-point favorites against Boston College.

Yates back on track

Before he suffered an injury, Carolina QB Tyler Yates was the key to the offense. He averaged 207.7 yards per game through the air and threw six touchdowns against just one interception. The offense averaged 32 points per game in that stretch.

Since coming back from injury, things haven’t been nearly as good. The Tar Heels have only scored 38 points in his two games back and Yates has gone just 25-of-41 for 306 yards with three touchdowns and two picks.

Running off course

With an offense featuring QB Pat White and RB Noel Devine, the Mountaineers were slated to be one of the most explosive offenses in the NCAA. They did have the 12th best rushing attack in the nation at 217.4 yards per game, but as a whole, the offense only ranked 65th in yards per game (353.1) and 75th in points per game (24.0).

White and Devine combined to tote the rock 362 times for 2,154 yards, but only scored a total of 10 touchdowns. White rushed for 14 scores last season by himself and 18 in his junior season.

White hot bowls

No one has been able to stop the WVU signal caller in a bowl game since he stepped on the Morgantown campus. White has racked up an average of 266.3 yards per game and six touchdowns without throwing an interception in three bowl games. The Mountaineers averaged 41.3 points in those games.

Champs Sports Bowl
By Judd Hall

The Seminoles and Badgers expected to have seasons this year that would put them back at the top of the college football rankings. Instead, they find one another at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida for a date in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Wisconsin felt like it was building up to something big this year after playing well in a 21-17 defeat to the Volunteers in last season’s Outback Bowl. After all, they would be returning 15 starters from a squad that went 9-4 in 2007.

Bret Bielema’s strategy is no secret in that he wants to run the ball with a stud like redshirt junior P.J. Hill in the backfield and a starting offensive line that averages 316.2 pounds per man along with three seniors. Statistically, that gameplan has worked out for Wisky as they rank 14th in the nation with 212.0 yards per game on the ground. The Badgers even found a capable rusher in waiting this season with redshirt freshman John Clay, who ran for 845 yards and nine touchdowns on 144 carries.

Unfortunately for the Badgers, they couldn’t run it every play…No, Wisconsin had to mix in a few pass plays with senior transfer Allan Evridge from Kansas State. Evridge proved he couldn’t make the plays when they counted by getting picked off late in matches against the Wolverines and Buckeyes where Wisky could have either put the game away or went back out ahead. Dustin Sherer eventually took over under center and managed to do well enough by completing 54.3 percent of his passes for 1,257 yards with just as many touchdowns as he had interceptions (five).

What that inconsistency in the passing game created did was help bring what was once expected to be a team poised to maybe make the Rose Bowl, fall to 7-5 in 2008. As mediocre as that record is, VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Scott Rickenbach still buys into them to a point. “I do think the Badgers are better than you would think based on the 7-5 record they have this season.” Rickenbach concludes, “However, I do not think that they match up very well with Florida State…especially against the run”

Rickenbach makes a valid point as the Seminoles are one of the best defensive programs in the country. Florida State’s d-unit has allowed 291.8 YPG this season, which ranks them 14th national in total defense. And the ‘Noles have the 33rd ranked rush defense, surrendering 126.8 YPG on the ground. While you might think that is a lot of yardage, consider the fact that FSU is 2nd in the nation with an average of 8.6 tackles for loss per game in 2008.

While Florida State is more than capable to snuff out the opposition, its offense doesn’t exactly strike fear. Bobby Bowden’s Seminoles are averaging 368.7 YPG on the attack this year…good enough to be 55th in the country. While the running (182.8) and passing (185.8) games are about equal, the ‘Noles rely more on the ground game to help move them along. So for FSU to make things happen, they’ll need a solid effort out of Antone Smith. The senior from Pahokee, Florida leads the program with 753 yards and 14 touchdowns on 161 carries this season.

If Smith can’t make any headway via the ground game, then Christian Ponder will be put to task. Ponder may have thrown more interceptions (13) than he had touchdowns (12), but he still was named the team’s offensive MVP this year. Partly because of the promise he showed in games like he had against the Terrapins on Nov. 22 in which he completed 19 of 24 passes for 143 and a score. But this sophomore has shown to wilt under pressure as evidenced by his nailing just five of 14 passes for 60 yards and two picks in a monsoon against the Gators in Tallahassee to close out the regular season.

The ‘Noles will have some work cut out for them this Saturday against a Badgers’ defensive unit that is 32nd in the nation by giving up 322.3 YPG. While those numbers look good, they never played up to the level of the better squads in the Big Ten this season. In the last four defeats Wisconsin had this year (Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa and Michigan State), they gave up an average of 347.8 YPG and 32.8 points per game as well.

Most betting shops have listed the Seminoles as five-point favorites with a total that is holding steady at 52. Bettors can take Wisconsin to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

Normally you’d look at history between teams to get an idea of how to bet. Well, that’s not happening here as this is the first meeting between Florida State and the Badgers.

As far as favorites go in the history of the Champs Sports Bowl itself, they’ve gone 10-7 straight up and 8-9 against the spread since the game was known as the Blockbuster Bowl in 1990. While the “chalk” might look like a good play here, keep in mind that they have posted an 0-3 mark in their last games ATS.

The Seminoles are good when tabbed as favorite as noted by an 11-5 SU record. Yet, the gamblers are flipping a coin when it comes to them covering the number by going 8-8 ATS.

Wisconsin hasn’t fared well against non-conference opponents when installed as an underdog with a SU record of 3-4. Yet they’ve cashed in nicely as we can see by them going 5-2 ATS since 2000.

You can catch this game on ESPN at 4:30 p.m. EST.

vegasinsider.com

Meineke Car Care Bowl
By Brad Young

West Virginia and North Carolina will be entering a bit of unchartered territory when the two schools collide in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. The Mountaineers have played in five consecutive New Year’s Day bowl games until this year, while the Tar Heels haven’t reached a bowl game since 2004.

Both schools appeared headed to bigger contests and a possible Orange Bowl matchup before faltering down the stretch. West Virginia (8-4 straight up, 4-7 against the spread) was poised to take the Big East title before splitting its last four games, while North Carolina (8-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) suffered tough setbacks to Maryland and North Carolina State.

“West Virginia is just 3-10 ATS its last 13 games versus Atlantic Coast Conference opponents,” said VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco. “However the Mountaineers finished the regular season with the nation’s best red-zone defense, allowing scores on only 27-of-42 possessions opponents brought inside the 20-yard line.”

Caesars Palace installed West Virginia as a 1 ½-point ‘chalk’ over North Carolina, with the total set at 44 ½. The Tar Heels opened as a 1 ½-point favorite, while the total was listed at 46. ESPN will provide coverage of the Meineke Car Care Bowl beginning Saturday, December 27th at 1:00 p.m. ET from Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium.

West Virginia has alternated SU wins and losses its last five games after upending South Florida December 6 as a seven-point home ‘chalk,’ 13-7. The combined 20 points never seriously threatened the 47-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second straight contest.

Most of the key game stats were pretty equal except that the Mountaineers won the turnover battle (3-1). Quarterback Pat White completed 14-of-23 passes for 141 yards with a touchdown, while rushing 15 times for 40 yards.

North Carolina snapped a two-game losing skid by upending Duke November 29 as an eight-point road favorite, 28-20. The combined 48 points toppled the 43½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the second consecutive contest.

“North Carolina is No. 43 among 119 major college teams in red-zone offense with 34 scores on 40 possessions,” noted Franco. “The Tar Heels have scored 22 touchdowns and kicked 12 field goals.”

Quarterback T.J. Yates was 15-of-19 passing for 190 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Running back Shaun Draughn accounted for 29 carries for 110 yards and a score, while catching four passes for 28 yards and a touchdown.

West Virginia and North Carolina have not played each other in recent years.

“Something has to give in this matchup, West Virginia clearly has the advantage on defense and North Carolina has the offensive edge,” stated Franco. “I think this one plays out to a low-scoring affair.”

North Carolina wide receiver Brooks Foster (knee) is ‘probable’ against the Mountaineers, while tight end Zack Pianalto (leg) is ‘questionable.’

West Virginia center Mike Dent (neck) and linebacker Anthony Leonard (foot) are ‘questionable’ versus the Tar Heels.

Saturday’s forecast for Charlotte, North Carolina calls for partly cloudy skies and a 10 percent chance of precipitation, with a high of 54 degrees and a low of 44.

vegasinsider.com.

2008 Meineke Car Care Bowl Preview
by Robert Ferringo

West Virginia vs. North Carolina
Conference Matchup: Big East vs. ACC
Date: 1 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 27
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
Odds: 'Pick 'Em'; Total 46.5

A mild air of disappointment and missed opportunities hangs over the Meineke Car Care Bowl like the mid-winter clouds in the gray Carolina sky.

Roughly 12 months ago West Virginia was one game away from potentially playing for a national championship and North Carolina was 4-8 and wondering when they would manage to finally turn their program around. Now the two teams will square off on Saturday, Dec. 27 in Charlotte in a game that each team seems to have had to settle for.

West Virginia got off to a slow start in the Bill Stewart Era, taking an early beating at East Carolina and losing another three games by a combined 13 points. Their offense was ranked just 84th in the nation after Week 3 and Stewarts offense struggled to get going throughout most of the season. But the Mountaineers never mailed it in and won seven of their last nine games to salvage their season. Their defense improved to No. 34 in the country and their offense managed to do just enough to get the job done, scoring over 30 points in three of their last six games.

North Carolina has been somewhat of a surprise throughout this season. They won five of their first six games and were 8-2 in mid-November with a strong shot at a trip to the ACC Championship Game. However, they dropped two of their last three games and had to watch as teams that they beat throughout the year scored better bowl games. And while it's nice that they are playing their bowl game just a bus ride away there's a certain disappointment with not being able to hit some exotic locale to put a cap on the year.

So both teams are settling for the Meineke Bowl, which feels a bit like a used car for these clubs. But one team will win and one team will cash here and it's a tricky pick to figure out who and how that will all shake out.

North Carolina earned two blowout wins over Big East teams this year, rocking Rutgers, 44-12, and creaming Connecticut, 38-12. West Virginia split its two major nonconference games, dumping a tight one at Colorado but avalanching Auburn in Morgantown.

West Virginia has a decided experience edge. Their seniors are undefeated in bowl games, including upset wins on Georgia's home turf in 2006 and a blowout over Oklahoma last January. You know that Pat White wants to close out his career in style and that one of the nation's top offensive lines, with four senior starters, is going to come to play. Also, their defense actually finished in the Top 10 in points allowed (15.9) and may be good enough to hold down the young Tar Heels attack.

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However, the Mountaineers are just 3-10 ATS against the ACC and their bowl success came under the regime of Rich Rodriquez. North Carolina is clearly the more athletic team and should come out with more energy and enthusiasm because it is the first bowl game in the Butch Davis Era. Carolina's defense definitely has enough speed to keep up with the WVU spread and playing just a few miles from campus can't hurt either.

This game is going to be one of the few sellouts on the docket for this bowl season and should be an emotionally charged tilt for regional bragging rights. And no matter how the teams feel heading into this game - and both have reasons to be motivated and to be disappointed - once the pads start bashing this one is going to be less about "feelings" and more about dexterity and determination.

Docsports.com

2008 Emerald Bowl Preview
by T.O. Whenham

Miami (7-5) vs. Cal (8-4)
Conference Matchup: ACC vs. Pac-10
Date: Saturday, Dec. 28, 8:00 p.m.
Location: AT&T Park, San Francisco
Spread: Cal -7.5, total 50

You may as well just call this one a home game for Cal. The Bears have a 20-minute bus ride to get to the game, while the Hurricanes have to cross the country. Miami was 4-2 ATS on the road, though this is by far their longest trip. Cal was a perfect 7-0 straight up and ATS when they had their home crowd cheering for them as they will in this one.

The Emerald Bowl is one of the stranger bowl games since it's played in a baseball stadium. The new St. Petersburg Bowl at Tropicana Field is the only other bowl game played in a baseball-only stadium. The field causes some odd circumstances for the game - most notably, both teams share the same sideline. This is the seventh version of the Emerald Bowl, and the first for both of these teams.

Line Movement

The line opened at 6.5 and blew right through the key number of seven quickly. Public action has been heavily tilted towards the Bears, with more than 70 percent of bets on them. The line could keep moving up until kickoff. Both teams went over in the majority of their games, yet the total is dropping. It opened at 51.5, but can be found as low as 49.5.

Will Marve be there?

The status of redshirt freshman Robert Marve, Miami's starting QB, is up in the air. Reports are flying that his grades aren't good, and that they may keep him out of this game. He says that they are fine, but his status won't be known for certain for a while. On top of that, rumors of a transfer to another school, perhaps Florida, are running rampant. Even if Marve does play he might not be at his best through the distractions. It would be easy for bettors to overcompensate for the situation, though. This team is not centered around strong QB play, and Marve essentially platoons with Jacory Harris, so he won't make or break the team's fortunes. Marve is no Sam Bradford, either - he has nine TDs and 13 picks.

That's Your MVP? Really?

Miami has had a solid year, but they aren't the football factory that they were earlier in the decade. Need proof? At their recent awards banquet, the MVP award was given to Matt Bosher. He's the kicker. You can imagine how devoid of standout stars a team has to be in order for the kicker, the least respected position in sports, to get the nod.

Setting the right tone

Miami is not in a good place, having lost their last two. Cal's confidence will be running much higher - they have won their last two games by a combined 85-23. That stat needs a bit of a qualification, though - both games were at home, and their opponents - struggling Stanford and pathetic Washington - were outmatched. Of more concern, Washington is the only one of Cal's last four opponents that the Bears have outgained. Miami has been outgained in their last three as well, so neither team is a clear favorite to set the offensive tone.

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History

The teams have only played twice before, and Miami won both games in blowout fashion. Don't get too excited, though - the last game was in 1990, so a few things have changed since they saw each other. Cal is in their sixth consecutive bowl after a long bowl drought. They have won four of those five bowls during the stretch, including the last three. Miami is back in a bowl after ending a nine-year streak last year. They won seven of those nine bowls, though they were thoroughly humiliated in the Peach Bowl in 2005.

Trends of Note

Cal is 4-0 ATS the last four times they have been the favorites. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following a blowout win of more than 20 points. They are on a hot betting streak, with five covers in their last six.

Miami has not bounced back well. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. They have covered eight of their last 11 when an underdog of between a field goal and 10 points.

Several trends point to an over. The Hurricanes have gone over in four of their last five after an ATS loss. Cal has gone over in their last four in neutral sites, in their last five bowl games, in eight of their last 11 non conference games, and in four of their last five as favorites.

Docsports.com

2008 Champs Sports Bowl Preview
by Matt Severance

Wisconsin (7-5) vs. Florida State (8-4)
Conference matchup: Big Ten vs. ACC
When: Dec. 27, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Location: Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando
Spread: FSU -5.5, total at 52

Line movement: There has been some fluctuation here, with the point spread moving about a half-point in either direction of five at most books. The late money has been toward FSU. The total has fallen between a half-point and a point since its opening.

Bowl history: This will be Wisconsin's first non-January bowl game since the 2003 Music City Bowl and first bowl game against a school from outside the SEC since 2002. The Badgers are 10-9 all-time in bowls, including losing the Outback Bowl to Tennessee last season. The Noles used to be major bowl regulars but haven't played in one of the big four since the end of the 2005 season (Orange Bowl loss to Penn State), with FSU's last two bowl stops being the Emerald in 2006 (win over UCLA) and Music City last year (loss to Kentucky). Florida State is 21-14-2 all-time in bowls and is making its 27th straight trip to one, the longest streak in the country.

How they got here: Frankly, the Badgers are a bit lucky to be here. They were 3-0 and ranked No. 9 in the country after winning at Fresno State but then lost their first four Big Ten games, including a choke job at Michigan. Wisconsin did win its final three games to get bowl-eligible, but the finale was a 36-35 overtime win over I-AA Cal Poly where the Badgers trailed by eight points with four minutes left. FSU's high point was a 30-20 win over Virginia Tech on Oct. 25 that got the Noles to 6-1 and in control of the ACC Atlantic. But Florida State alternated losses and wins, going 2-3, in the final five games, including being routed by Florida in the regular-season finale (that means FSU is due to win here, I guess).

Key trends: Oddsmakers tend to slight Wisconsin in bowls, as the Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their past four bowls as an underdog of 3.5-10 points. FSU is 6-0-1 in its past seven neutral-site games. The under is 4-1 in UW's past five bowl games, but the over is 4-0 in FSU's past four postseason games.

Key injuries: FSU's best all-around offensive threat, WR Preston Parker, is questionable for Saturday's game. Against Florida, Parker suffered an ankle injury and hasn't participated in a full practice since before the Gators game. Actually, Parker has had a very disappointing season, which started with him being suspended for the first two games. He has caught just 40 passes for 372 yards and two touchdowns this season. Still, he can present matchup problems as sort of a Percy Harvin-lite.

Wisconsin for sure won't have a key contributor as linebacker Jonathan Casillas underwent surgery last week for a lingering knee issue. Casillas is a three-year starter who twice earned honorable mention All-Big Ten honors. He ranks third on the team in tackles (62) with six tackles for loss and an interception.

Sackmaster: Watch out for FSU defensive end Everette Brown, who could single-handedly disrupt the Wisconsin passing game the rare times the Badgers throw. Brown ranks No. 3 nationally with 1.04 sacks per game. He has 12 ½ of the Seminoles' 36 sacks and 20 ½ of the team's 104 tackles for loss. He also had three or more sacks in three games.

UW has surrendered 26 sacks in 12 games (2.2 per game). In the six games since junior Dustin Sherer took over as the starting QB, opponents have recorded 17 sacks (2.8 per game).

Overview: Both teams are inconsistent throwing the ball (let's call that a wash), so the better running team should prevail. The Badgers led the Big Ten in averaging 212 rushing yards per game. Junior P.J. Hill is Wisconsin's main man, with team highs of 1,024 yards and 13 touchdowns as UW ranked 14th in the nation in rushing. The Badgers also have freshman John Clay, the heir apparent to Hill who had 845 yards on the ground and nine TDs.

FSU rushed for 2,194 yards this season, its most in six years, led by Antone Smith, who had 753 yards and 14 touchdowns. But that ground game slowed down in the second half of the season, averaging 149.7 yards in the final six games after averaging 216.0 rushing yards per game in its first six. Smith had only 121 total yards in the final three games as he dealt with an ankle injury.

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In stopping the run, Florida State ranks 34th, holding opponents to 126.8 yards per game, and Wisconsin ranks 43rd at 133.3 yards.

This is the first-ever meeting between the schools, and obviously Florida State will have a sizable crowd advantage. Wisconsin is too one-dimensional with its running game, and the fast FSU defense allows fewer than 300 yards per game. The Noles will stack the box and make Wisconsin QB Dustin Sherer beat them. He won't.

Docsports.com

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL

West Virginia (8-4, 4-7 ATS) vs. North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) (at Charlotte, N.C.)

Two teams that stumbled down the stretch and cost themselves a chance at a BCS bowl game square off today in Charlotte, N.C., when West Virginia travels to meet the Tar Heels in their back yard.

West Virginia is in its school-best seventh straight bowl game but was near the top of the Big East all season before splitting their final four games (1-3 ATS), losing two to Cincinnati (26-23 in overtime) and Pitt (19-15) by a combined seven points. The two losses dropped the Mountaineers, who won the 2007 Big East title and whipped Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, into a tie with Pittsburgh and Rutgers for second place in the conference.

North Carolina rebounded from a 4-8 mark in 2007 to finish in a tie with Miami for third in the ACC’s Coastal Division. The Tar Heels opened with a 7-2 mark (5-3 ATS in lined games), including wins over Top-25 opponents Connecticut, Boston College and Georgia Tech. However, their conference championship hopes went out the window with consecutive upset losses to Maryland (17-15 as a three-point road favorite) and instate rival N.C. State (41-10 as an 11-point home chalk). The Heels did rebound to defeat Duke 28-20 as a 7 ½-point road favorite in their regular-season finale Nov. 29.

Despite last year’s stunning 48-28 upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl as an eight-point underdog, West Virginia is just 2-4 ATS in its last six bowl games. The Tar Heels haven’t won a bowl game since beating Auburn 16-10 as 2½-point favorites in the 2001 Peach Bowl. These two schools haven’t met since the Gator Bowl on New Year’s Day 1997, when North Carolina scored a 20-13 win, barely cashing as a 6½-point chalk.

The game marks the end of the college career for Mountaineers’ QB Pat White, who is the NCAA’s all-time leader in career rushing yards for QBs with 4,425, including four 200-yard games. This year, White finished with 919 yards and eight TDs on the ground and threw for 1,510 yards, 18 TDs and just six INTs.

North Carolina’s offense is guided by junior QB T.J. Yates, who completed 60 percent of his throws in six games and was 15-for-19 for 190 yards and a season-high three TDs in the season-finale against Duke. Yates played in the three of the team’s final four games after missing five contests with an injury.

The Mountaineers put up 24 points a game and average 353.1 yards per contest, including 217.4 rushing ypg, while the Tar Heels average 27.5 points and 317.3 yards per outing. On defense, West Virginia allows just 15.9 points and 325.5 yards per contest, while North Carolina gives up per-game averages of 20.3 points and 358.8 yards.

West Virginia is on ATS slides of 3-10 against ACC squads, 1-4 in December games and 2-6 following a straight-up win. Meanwhile, North Carolina is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven against the Big East, but the Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 as a ‘dog.

For the Mountaineers, the over is 4-0 in their last four bowl games and 5-1 in their last six against ACC competition, but the under is 6-2 in their last eight non-conference games and 11-5 in their last 16 after a straight-up win. The Tar Heels are on “over” runs of 5-2 in non-conference action, 7-2 against teams from the Big East and 4-0 as a ‘dog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

Wisconsin (7-5, 5-6 ATS) vs. Florida State (8-4, 5-4-1 ATS) (at Orlando, Fla.)

Wisconsin won three straight to end the season and earn a date with Bobby Bowden and Florida State, which is playing in its 27th straight bowl game, the longest such streak in college football.

The Badgers started out 3-0 and reached No. 9 in the polls before losing four straight (0-4 ATS) and five of their next six (2-4 ATS). Wisconsin finished with a blowout win at Indiana and two narrow home victories over Minnesota and Cal Poly San Luis Obispo to gain some momentum coming into this one. Junior running back P.J. Hill (1,024 yards, 13 TDs) is the workhorse for this team, leading to Badgers to the 14th best rushing attack in the nation at 212 yards per game.

Florida State alternated SU wins and losses in its final six games (3-2-1 ATS), but got drubbed by Florida 45-14 in the regular-season finale, coming up well short as a 16-point ‘dog. The ‘Noles rushing game deserted them in the second half of the season, averaging just 149.7 ypg in the final six after putting up 216 ypg on the ground in their first six outings.

Both teams can put up points, with Wisconsin averaging 28.7 per contest while Florida State nets 32.7. Defensively, the Seminoles hold the advantage, allowing 20.8 ppg and just 291.2 total ypg, while the Badgers yield averages of 25.2 points and 322.5 yards.

This is Wisconsin’s fifth consecutive bowl game in the state of Florida, having lost last year’s Outback Bowl to Tennessee 21-17 as a 2½-point underdog. The Badgers are 1-1 SU and ATS in bowl games under third-year coach Brett Bielema, and they’re 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) against the ACC going back to 1995. Additionally, Wisconsin is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 non-conference affairs, but is otherwise in ATS slumps of 3-8 away from home dating to last season and 3-6 as an underdog.

Bowden has guided Florida State to a 20-10-1 SU and 18-10-1 ATS record in the postseason, going 3-0-1 ATS the last four years. That includes a 35-28 loss to Kentucky as a seven-point pup in the Music City Bowl in Nashville last New Year’s Eve. The Seminoles are 8-2-1 SU (3-1-1 in bowl games) versus current Big Ten teams, and they’re also on positive ATS runs of 6-0-1 in neutral-site games, 5-0-1 after a non-cover and 5-0-1 after a straight-up loss.

Wisconsin is on “under” streaks of 10-4 in non-conference action, 4-1 in bowl games and 4-1 as a ‘dog. Meanwhile, Florida State is on “over” stretches of 4-0 in bowl action, 6-1 in neutral-site games and 14-5 following a straight-up loss.

This is the first-ever meeting between these schools.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE

EMERALD BOWL

Miami (Fla.) (7-5, 4-7 ATS) vs. California (8-4, 9-3 ATS) (at San Francisco)

The Golden Bears make the short drive across the bay for a school-record sixth straight bowl game, taking on Miami, Fla., which is making its 10th consecutive postseason appearance.

Cal ended the season with blowout wins over rival Stanford (37-16 as a nine-point home favorite Nov. 22) and winless Washington (48-7 as a 35-point home chalk Dec. 6). Sophomore RB Jahvid Best racked up 201 yards and three TDs against the Cardinal and then topped that with a school-record 311 rushing yards and four TDs against the hapless Huskies. Best’s eight yards per carry leads the nation and his 1,394 yards put him eighth in the country.

Miami carried a five-game winning streak (3-2 ATS) into a critical road contest at Georgia Tech on Nov. 20, but it got crushed 41-23 as a three-point road underdog to end its hopes of an ACC Coastal Division title. The following week, the Hurricanes went to N.C. State and fell 38-28 as a two-point road chalk. After holding the opposition to 17 points or less in four of five games, the ‘Canes defense allowed 79 to Georgia Tech and N.C. State, along with a combined 691 rushing yards, including a whopping 472 to the Yellow Jackets.

These schools have met just three times previously, most recently in 1990, when Miami crushed Cal 52-24 and cashed as a 21-point favorite in Berkeley.

The Golden Bears have the edge on offense, averaging 33.3 points and 379.2 yards per contest while the Hurricanes put up 27.9 points and 327.2 yards per outing. The matchup is more even defensively, where Miami surrenders 24.2 points and 312.9 yards, while California allows 20.2 points and 315.3 yards. However, the Bears held seven of their last nine opponents to 20 points or less.

The Hurricanes are 8-2 SU in their last 10 bowl games, including last year’s tough 21-20 victory over Nevada in the MPC Computer Bowl in Boise, failing to cover as a 3½-point chalk. Meanwhile, Cal is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in the postseason the last five years under coach Jeff Tedford, and last season the Bears rallied from a third-quarter deficit to defeat Air Force 42-36 in the Armed Forces Bowl, hanging on to cash as a 4½-point favorite.

Miami is on ATS slides of 11-26-1 overall, 1-5 in December games and 1-4 after a non-cover. Conversely, the Golden Bears are on positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 as a favorite and 4-1 after a straight-up win.

Miami has stayed under the total in six of its last eight bowl games and 21 of 27 non-conference outings. Meanwhile, Cal is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 5-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite, 8-2-1 in non-conference games and 5-0 in bowl action.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CALIFORNIA

Gametimepicks.com

Saturday's Research
By Indiancowboy

Meineke Car Bowl

West Virginia vs. North Carolina (Bank of America Stadium), Charlotte, North Carolina.

There are so many great bowl matchups coming up this week and this is simply one of them. Besides this one, I am really looking forward to the NC State vs. Rutgers matchup, my Tide facing off against the undefeated Utes and of course, the National Championship that is to come. West Virginia had some sort of a saving grace by defeating South Florida in their last game 13-7 at home. They have missed their last two covers including losing to Pittsburgh on the road 15-19. After getting pounded by their rival in NC State by a score of 10-41 at home, UNC came back to defeat Duke 28-20 and actually managed to cover the closing line of -7.5. In many ways, this is a home game for North Carolina but WVU is getting the love as the line has moved to -2 in favor of the Mountaineers. WVU currently has the 66th rated offense, 110th in the nation in passing but of course, they are known for their rush attack which is 13th in the country but only averaged 24 points per game which puts the 77th in the nation. WVU defense is ranked 34th in the nation overall but 9th in the nation in points allowed at 15.9 per game. These two teams met before back in 1997 with UNC winning 20-13. I would lean on UNC except for the fact that although UNC defeated another Big East foe in Uconn, WVU beat this team on the road as well and WVU defeated Louisville on the road and nearly defeated Pittsburgh on the road. UNC is nothing to shy about as well as they defeated BC and Georgia Tech by 21 at home. UNC is ranked 95th in the nation in offense, while being in and around the mid 80's both on passing and rushing offense - but top 50 in points scored at 27.5 ppg. UNC's defense is ranked 62nd overall and 30th in points allowed at 20.3 per game. Lean on WVU a bit but this can obviously swing both ways.

Champs Sports Bowl

Wisconsin vs. FSU (Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, Florida).

Over 70% are riding high on the Seminoles at home here facing the Badgers. The sad thing is that the Badgers were actually a top 25 team to start the year and ended the season with 5 losses. Florida State did a bit better with an 8-4 year but to be honest should have defeated Georgia Tech on the road as I was at the game and when the ball coughed out at the Goal Line in that defensive stand by Tech it was unbelievable. Wisconsin barely even got past Cal-Poly needing overtime to win 35-34 in what could have been a massive embarrassment for the program as a whole. This team did close out the year 4-1 to even be bowl eligible to their credit after going through a stretch where they had lost 4 in a row. FSU has defeated the likes of Clemson, Va Tech and even Miami on the road despite the fact they tried to lose that game it seemed. I can't favor any team that has the backing of 70% but FSU has looked sharp of late and comes off a 15-45 dubbing from arch rival Florida so they are looking to bounce-back here. FSU is ranked 57th on offense (88th pass, 33rd in rush) and 14th in the nation in total defense (8th pass and 29th in rush defense). Do note however, the line is strikingly high at 52 and it has actually risen from an opening line of 48.

Emerald Bowl

Miami of Florida vs. California (AT&T Park, San Francisco, California).

Give Coach Shannahan a lot of credit.Yes, he could start quarterback Robert Marve but is not. Want to know why? How about the fact that Marve did not make grades and to Shannahan's credit he is going to sit him out while starting Harris. If only more coaches would stand up for the betterment of their players as a person as a whole it would be better. Yes, winning is important. But, as Al Pacino noted on Any Given Sunday to Jaime Foxx, "There are more important things in life than winning". However, winning is extremely, extremely, important with covering the spread even more important. Harris to his credit has thrown for 9 touchdown and 4 interceptions but he is a bit of a tail off from Marve who to his credit has more distance and accuracy. Miami lost a tough 28-38 game to NC State as their reward they have to travel cross country to play in essentially a home game for Cal in San Francisco. Miami did beat Va Tech at home, Virginia on the road, hammered Duke on the road by 18 and even defeated Wake at home. Cal comes off big wins against Washington and Stanford, and although this team has not played well on the road, they have played well at home defeating Oregon and Oregon State and were actually one of the best cover teams in the nation at 9-3 ATS. Miami has an offense ranked 88th overall (76th rush and 79th pass) and a defense ranked 23rd overall (12th pass and 67th rush). Cal was 46th in the nation in total yards (80th in pass and 31st in rushing) and 25th in defense (42nd in pass and 25th in rush). They were the 22nd best team in the nation in points scored as well as 28th in points allowed.

Independence Bowl

Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech. (Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana).

Not a ad deal here for La Tech as they get to play here in their home state while Northern Illinois has to travel down south. The Huskies come off getting blanked by Navy at home by a score of 0-16, but prior to that had defeated Kent State 42-14 as that was a must win game to go Bowling as they couldn't rely on the Navy game for the make or break - and good thing they didn't as they lost. This team was 1-4 ATS over their last 5. La Tech lost a tight game in 31-35 against Nevada to close out the year, but did defeat Fresno State 38-35 at home which was probably one of their biggest wins on the season they can write home about as they were one of the fewest teams if not the only team that Fresno State lost to on the road outside of Boise State and they won that game outright despite being dogged by around 4-5 points. Although NI is just 84th in offense overall, they are the 19th rated defense in the league includin 5th in pass defense and 16th overall. La Tech is ranked as the 67th in total yards (102nd in passing, 24th in rushing) while their defense is ranked 80th overall (117th pass defense and 11th in rush defense).