Larry Ness' LEGEND Play-CFB (1st of '07 / 6-1 last two years in CFB regular season!)
Larry's LEGEND plays were previously available to only his personal clients. Recently, he's released them on the net. How rare are they? Larry's had over 400 MLB plays in '07, with just one LEGEND play (a win with the Reds on 8/24!). Over the L/2 CFB regular seasons, he's had just seven LEGEND plays, going 6-1 (86% ATS)! Don't miss his 1st of CFB '07!
My LEGEND Play is on Nevada at 4:05 ET. UNLV/Nevada is a bitter rivalry and it's always meant more to the school which hails from "The Biggest Little City in the World!" These schools have met every year since 1989, with Nevada beating its rival from the south 10 of 11 times through 1999. UNLV then ripped off five straight wins but Nevada's won and covered each of the last two years. UNLV is off a HUGE win last week, beating Utah 27-0, its first win over the Utes as a conference foe in eight games and its first win over Utah overall, since 1979. UNLV also played Wisconsin tough two weeks ago, losing just 20-13, as almost four TD underdogs. However, the Badgers are overrated and let's remember that while Utah did beat UCLA 44-6 (benefiting from five TOs), the Utes have averaged just 269.7 YPG in losing to Ore St, Air Force and UNLV. Meanwhile, Nevada has beaten only Nicholls St but QB Graziano has averaged 286.5 YPG (7-3 ratio) in the two games since his 8-of-24 109-yard effort at Nebraska. RB Lippincott has run for 267 yards (6.4 YPC) after finishing with minus-five yards vs the 'Huskers. Head coach Chris Ault returned to Reno in '04 and since then has led this team to a 16-3 SU mark at home. The Wolf Pack are a perfect 11-0 ATS as home favorites and he knows how much this game means to his school. Let's not forget that UNLV's win at Utah St 23-16 (Utah St is 0-4 TY!) on Aug 30, ended a 15-game road losing streak for the Rebels, in which they were 2-10-1 ATS as road dogs. Nevada was off last week and that should give them "fresher legs," which is a big advantage playing at this altitude. LEGEND Play on Nevada.
Ron Raymond’s Week 14 CFL Picks
Toronto 51.5 vs. Edmonton -5
Pick: Toronto +5.5 (5* BEST BET)
Ron’s Comment: Michael Bishop has brought some life to the Argos since coming back from his wrist injury and the Argonauts have won 3 of their last 4 games since Labor Day. In order to start a winning streak, you need to start with a win and the boatmen did that last weekend with a nice win over Eastern Division leaders Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Eskimos are just too radical to support in this spot, as you never know which Eskimos team will show up. Plus, in their last 10 home games vs. Eastern division Opponents, the Eskimos are 2-8 ATS. Toronto is 8-3 SU and ATS in Edmonton since 1996. Play Toronto +5.5
ATSDatabase Tip: When ANY CFL Team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Road Underdog -After a division game - Coming off a game scored 31 points or more - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Allowed scored 24 points or less against. The Road Underdog is 8-4 ATS in this situation since ’96.
Forecast: Toronto 28 Edmonton 24
Montreal 52.0 vs. Saskatchewan -6
Pick: Saskatchewan -6.0
Ron’s Comment: The CFL is a quarterback league and when your number one pivot is sidelined with a rotary cuff, chances are you will struggle. The Alouettes are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and without AC and Watkins and Cahoon, the Als are finding out their depth chart is not as deep as other clubs. However, Calvillo is expected to be back this weekend, but they will be facing a desperate Roughriders team who just lost a heartbreaker last weekend vs. the Lions and are currently riding a 3 game losing streak. In fact, from a point spread point of view, they haven’t covered a spread since August 10th in a 24-13 road win vs. the Argos as a -5.5 point road chalk. Montreal is very lucky to be a .500 ball club right now and with 2 straight back to back loses to Edmonton, you can see tension are high in Alouettes camp these days and we all know what happens when you start pointing fingers. Play on Saskatchewan -6.
ATSDatabase Tip: When ANY CFL Team played as a Home team -During the month of September -With 6 day off - Coming off a game scored 34 points or less - Coming off back to back SU loss; The Home Team is 20-5 ATS in this role.
Forecast: Saskatchewan 34 Montreal 17
Hamilton 50.5 vs. Winnipeg -10
Pick: UNDER 50.05
Ron’s Comment: When the line first came out, I thought Hamilton as a +10 point road underdog was a good value play, but that was with Casey Printers starting, not Ritchie Williams. Plus, with Jesse Lumsden in the backfield, he can get you some decent yardage which can result in some points, either a field goal or touchdowns. Plus, Nick Setta is probably the best place kicker in the CFL and that’s money when you’re betting underdogs. As for the Blue Bombers, they are coming off a 31-23 lost to Toronto, but failed on their comeback, after being down 21-1 at the half. To be honest, this is a tough game to call, because you have two different types of offenses with Printers and Williams at the helm. However, the strongest part about the Tiger Cats is their defense, so let’s play on their strength of keeping this a low scoring game.
ATSDatabase Tip: When WINNIPEG team played as Home team as a Favorite - Coming off a 2 Road stand; The UNDER is 12-3-0 for the Blue Bombers in this spot.
Forecast: Winnipeg 24 Hamilton 14
Calgary 54.5 vs. B.C.Lions -10.5
Pick: UNDER 54.5
Ron’s Comment: The Stampeders are coming off a double jeopardy here, as they lost to the last place team Hamilton Tiger Cats last weekend and lost their starting QB Henri Burris to injury in the dying seconds of the game in which he was marching his team for a score. Now, when you look at the B.C.Lions, they are coming off an emotional division last minute win last weekend vs. Saskatchewan, in which tempers were at a all time high for both teams. The line opened at -7.0 and the Burris injury news raised this line to -10.5. The Lions are in a classic letdown spot here vs. the Stampeders, but it’s hard to put your faith and money onto a QB like former Oregon Ducks standout Akili Smith, when he’s got no CFL experience and he’s heading into the Lions den this weekend. I would recommend you don’t touch the side on this game, as the Lions could be flat and the Stamps could have allot of 2 and outs. Play the UNDER.
ATSDatabase Tip: When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a Home team -After a division game - Coming off a 1 game over; The UNDER is 14-3-0 for the Lions in this spot since 1996.
Forecast: B.C.Lions 31 Calgary 7
Ron’s CFL Record:
5* CFL BEST BET Record: 5-7-1 ATS
1* CFL Record: 24-19 ATS
Straight up Forecast: 31-16-1 SU
SCOTT SPREITZER SCOTT'S CFB EARLY VALUE SHOCKER! 2-0, 100% IN 2007!
(139) Penn St vs (140) Illinois
Game Starts at September 29 2007 09:00 EST
Take (140) Illinois
I'm taking the points with the home underdog Illini. As I stated in my Iowa-Wisconsin analysis on Proline, the Big-10 is way down, unathletic for the most part, and stagnant in their play-calling. The only programs that have taken it into the 21st century are Ohio State, Purdue, and believe it or not, Ron Zook's Illinois! The Illini can trade points with anyone. Just ask Missouri and Syracuse. But they can also play defense, especially against slow, plodding offenses like Penn State's. Just ask Indiana. The Nittany Lion offense has no speed, was very fortunate to face FIU, Notre Dame, and Buffalo, and got exposed by Michigan, who gave up a ton of yardage to the imagintive offenses of Appalachian State & Oregon. The Illini also have legitimate revenge on their mind. In last season's 26-12 loss at Happy Valley, Illinois actually out-gained PSU, 358-184, including 209-96 at the half! The Illini blew a 9-3, third quarter lead thanks to a pair of INTs deep in Penn State territory, a safety, a turnover at their own 34 that led to a TD, and a fumble returned for a TD by PSU. But you could see what Zook was building. Now, the Illini have arrived. While they aren't ready to knock off the Buckeyes, they are ready to compete with and beat the rest of the conference. Penn State finds out just how improved the Illini are on Saturday. My early value release is a play on ILLINOIS plus points.
Northcoast 29 12 (6-5 LW)
Monday
Early Bird POW
Virginia Tech -16.5
Tuesday
Underdog POW
Colorado St. +11
Power Plays
4* Purdue
Wednesday
Economy Club (#2 rated play)
LSU -40
Last Week
Monday
Early Bird POW
Kansas -29.5 Won 55-3
Tuesday
Underdog POW
NC ST Loss 20-42
Power Plays
4* Wyoming Loss 34-33
Wednesday
Economy club (#2 rated play)
Oregon won 55-21
Thursday
Totals POW
San Diego undr 43.5 Loss 31-24
Big 10 POW
Iowa Won 13-17
Friday
Big 12 POW
Oklahoma St.Won 49-45
Saturday
College POW
Arkansas Loss 29-42
TV POD
Washington Loss 31-44
Sunday
Pro POW
Green Bay Won 31-24
4 o'clock play
Browns Won 24-26
ace-ace / allan eastman +21.75 units ytd ncaa fb
4 Rutgers-16 1/2
3 Okl-22.5
Gator Report
Gator's NCAA Game of the Week Report
Each week in this section Gator will provide his College Games of the Week which will include his Conference, Steamroller and Underdog PLUS Bonus Selections during the season.
SEC GOW (1-1 -0.1)(Saturday): pass
Big 12 GOW (0-0)(Saturday): Texas -14.5
Big 10 GOW (1-0 +1.00)(Saturday): pass
Steamroller GOW (1-2 -1.2)(Saturday): pass
Underdog GOW (0-0)(Saturday): Georgia Tech +3
Gator's NFL "Tech" Game of the Week
Each week Gator releases his Top "Technical" Game of the Week, in football, basketball and baseball.
NFL Technical Game of the Week Selection (1-2 -1.20):
Game: St. Louis Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Technical Set: When NFC East hosts teams from the NFC West these games have gone over the posted total at a rate of 10 out of the last 11 games. Play Over NFL Road teams against the total after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game, 48-21 Over last 5 years. Also Game Four road teams who have lost each of their first three games have gone over the total in 12 of their last 14. Game Four home teams who come in off a win by 21 or more points have gone over in 14 of their last 17 games in that situation. St Louis is 21-8 Over versus teams averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt since 1992. Dallas is 16-3 Over in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1992 and 8-1 Over in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. One final note this series has gone Over the total in nine of the last twelve and five of the last six played in Dallas.
Selection: St Louis / Dallas OVER 46
Gator's Super System Selections
Each week during the football, basketball and baseball season's we will post our Top Rated System Selections along with the qualifying system.
NCAA System GOW (1-2 -1.20):
Game: California vs. Oregon
System: Play ON a home team with less than 13 days rest off a conference SU win scoring 43+ points vs. an opponent off a home contest scoring 43+ points (not as a favorite of 40+ points). 27-0 ATS since 1996
Selection: OREGON DUCKS -6
Gator's 70% Situational Report
NCAA (Saturday):
Game: Maryland vs. Rutgers
Play Against NCAA road underdogs after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points.
37-10 ATS the last 5 years. PLAY: Rutgers -16.5
__________________________________________________ _____________
Game: UL-Lafayette vs. Central Florida
Play Against NCAA road underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points off a home loss against a conference rival versus an opponent off a win by 21+ points over a conference rival. 23-3 ATS last 10 years PLAY: Central Florida -21.5
__________________________________________________ _____________
NFL (Monday Night Football):
Game: New England vs. Cincinnati
Play Over NFL teams off a win by 21 points or more over a division rival, in the first month of the season. 38-14 Over since 1983. PLAY: OVER 52.5
Early NCAAF Chicks
7 units - 111 Indiana Over 44
7 units - 115 Temple +6
7 units - 146 Texas -14.5
4 units - 135 Auburn +18
3 units - 144 Nebraska -21
3 units - 146 Texas Over 55.5
NCAAF Chicks following = -19.80 units (7-13)
NCAAF Chicks Fade = +13.60 units (13-7)
Burns ABC TV GOY - Georgia Tech
Burns Non-Conference Main Event - Florida State
Burns ESPN Game of the Month - Tulane
BIG AL's PAC-10 GAME OF THE YEAR; 100% ON #1 PLAYS -- Saturday
At 3:30 pm, our Pac-10 Game of the Year is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over California, as Oregon falls into 20-0, 93-53, 22-3, and 75-27 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 93-53 ATS angle. Here, we want to play on any home favorite of less than 28 points that's off a road game in which it scored 50 or more points. Last week, Oregon went into Palo Alto, and steamrolled Stanford 55-31, so the Ducks fall squarely into our 93-53 ATS System. Oregon already went into Ann Arbor and drilled a VERY GOOD Michigan team 39-7 (compiling 634 yards), and now plays with revenge against another very good team in Jeff Tedford's Bears. But Cal has struggled on the road of late. Last year, the Bears went 2-3 SU and ATS, and they're just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 road games, including a narrow 34-28 win over Colorado State three weeks ago. In that game, CSU rolled up 451 yards of offense, so that bodes well for the Ducks here. Oregon received some bad news on Monday when it was revealed that its wide receiver Brian Paysinger would miss the rest of the season following surgery to repair his injured leg, but Cameron Colvin was an adequate replacement last Saturday, as he caught eight passes. Take Oregon.
Doc's college....confirmed
4* south flr....fri game
4* ill +3
4* ill under 46
4* ind +11
4* miss st. +13.5
4* miss st under 42
4* central flr -21.5
5* mich -16.5
6* mich st +7.5
BOB
Rotation #119 Buffalo (+15) 2-Star at +15 or more.
Rotation #160 Toledo (+1 1/2) 3-Stars at +1 or more, 2-Stars at pick or -1.
Rotation #161 Kent State (-2 1/2) 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or less.
Rotation #170 Houston (-11) 3-Stars at -13 or less, 2-Stars at -13 1/2 or -14.
Rotation #178 Rutgers (-16 1/2) 4-Stars at -17 or less, 3-Stars from -17 1/2 to -20, 2- Stars up to -21.
Rotation #186 New Mexico (+5 1/2) 2-Stars at +5 or more.
Rotation #197 Florida International (+11) 2-Stars at +10 or more.
Rotation #200 Kentucky (-22) 3-Stars at -23 or less, 2-Stars from -23 1/2 to -25 points.
Strong Opinions
Rotation #104 South Florida (+7) Strong Opinion at +7 or more.
Rotation #167 Pittsburgh (+6) Strong Opinion at +6 or more.
Rotation #172 Tulsa (-21) Strong Opinion at -21 or less.
Spylock
1 Lsu
1 Mich St
1 Alabama
1 Ariz St
3 Airforce
Ben Burns' 3-Game EXEC. Report (Incl. PAC 10 GOM!)
Site regulars know that Ben Burns' Executive Reports have been MONEY IN THE BANK the past few years. Ben LOVES today's card and is stepping out with a TRIO OF ABSOLUTE GEMS. This COMMANDING CARD includes Ben's #1 PAC 10 GAME OF THE MONTH. Ben has cashed his L3 Exec. Reports & today's card has S-W-E-E-P written all over it.
San Diego
Stanford - PAC 10 Game of Month
New Mexico
Scott Spreitzer's 2nd CFB Conference GAME OF THE YEAR! *5-0, 100%
I'm laying the points with Oregon State. The Bruins caught a bad break in last week's loss to Washington when "backup" QB Patrick Cowan tore a knee ligament. He'll be out for at least three to four weeks which means Ben Olson will be under center in all likelihood at the start of this game. Cowan is the better QB for this offense and Olson is also not without injury. The Bruin signal-caller has suffered a couple of head injuries. If he can't go the entire game, the onus of the UCLA offense will lie squarely on the shoulders of RSFR McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who has yet to throw a collegiate pass. But I don't mind if Olson goes the distance because I just don't think he has the ability to lead UCLA on the road. Olson has connected on just 50.5-percent of his passes going 49-of 97 with a weak 5-4 TD-to-INT ratio. He'll be facing a Beaver defense that picked up four more sacks last week, now with 14 on the season. The bottom line for OSU is to hang onto the ball. Last week the offense kept putting the defense in bad spots after jumping out to a 19-0 lead at Arizona State. But the offense has just three turnovers in two home games, much better than the way they've fared on the road. And, the OSU passing game, more specifically QB Sean Canfield is getting just what the doctor ordered. He's facing a Bruin defense that's been shredded for 722 passing yards the last two weeks. More importantly for Canfield, UCLA has allowed a 12-to-3, TD-to-INT ratio this season. The Bruins have allowed 109 points in four games, including 75 in their last two. Last Saturday, they needed a kickoff return for a TD and an INT return for a TD to pull away from Washington, just one week removed from being on the wrong side of a slaughter at the hands of one-dimensional Utah. UCLA is 2-0 in conference play, but I believe they'll get exposed in this one. The Beavers are a strong 24-13 ATS in their last 37 home conference affairs. Oregon State is my Pac-10 GOY.
MALINSKY:
6* Rutgers
5* Baylor
4* Miss. St.
4* Wisc.
4* Tulsa
4* Fla. Int.