SATURDAY GAMEDAY NEWS AND NOTES

NCAAF Today

Navy won last six games vs Army by average score of 40-12, covering five of six; Middies are going for their 6th straight Commander-in-Chief trophy, which is very big deal for them. Navy won six of its last eight games, shutting out Northern Illinois in DeKalb last week: they're +14 in turnovers this season, 1-1 as a favorite. Army covered six of its last eight games, but lost last three, by 9-7-27 points.

Home side won last four Pitt-UConn games, with Panthers losing last two visits here, 29-17/46-45ot; Pitt beat West Virginia in their big rivalry game last week, Panthers' second loss in row; they won four of five road games, are 2-1 as a dog this season. UConn lost four of its last six games; they've scored 13 or less points in all four losses, and are 2-2 as favorite in 2008. Big East home favorites are 7-9 against spread.

West Virginia is wearing all-white uniforms to honor senior QB White in his final home game; Mountaineers lost to South Florida last two years, 24-19/21-13, both as favorites. WVa lost two of last three games, with a loss to rival Pitt last week; they're 4-1 at home this season (2-3 as home favorite). USF lost three of last four games, losing last two away games at Louisville (24-20), Cincinnati (24-10). Four of West Virginia's last five games went over the total.

Washington is winless, their coach has been fired, but now at least they know who the new coach is (USC OC Sarkisian); Huskies lost four of last five vs Cal, losing last two visits here, 54-7/31-24ot. Golden Bears lost two of last three games, but they're 6-0 as home favorite, winning in Berkeley by 7-35-10-21-10-21 points. U-Dub is 0-9 vs spread in its last nine games. Pac-10 home favorites are 16-8 against the spread.

USC won four of last five vs crosstown rival UCLA. losing 13-9 in last visit here two years ago; Trojans, who lost offensive coordinator to the Washington job Thursday, won last eight games by a combined score of 314-54 since losing at Oregon State in September. Bruins lost three of last four games, are 4-5 vs spread as underdog this year, failing to cover last three tries. Pac-10 home dogs are 9-7. Neuheisel's first rivalry game, this game always has big recruiting ramifications.

Arizona State scored four defensive TDs in 34-9 win over UCLA last week, thought to tie national record; they've won three games in row, are still alive for bowl bid even though they lost six in row earlier in season. ASU won four of last five series games, with dogs covering four of five games. Arizona is 0-4 if it scores less than 30 points; they lost last two games, at oregon, and at home to Oregon State, as they blew an 8-point lead in game's final minutes.

Cincinnati won Big East, is headed to BCS Bowl (probably Orange Bowl vs BC) so may be distracted on trip to Paradise to face host squad that is staying home for Christmas Eve bowl game. Hawai'i won last meeting 20-19 five years ago, with brawl at end of game, but different coaches on both sides now. Big East favorites are 8-13 vs spread in non-conference games, 3-6 road. WAC underdogs are 8-17 vs spread, 2-5 at home.

Winner of Troy-Arkansas State game is going to New Orleans Bowl on December 21 as Sun Belt champ; ASU won three of last four in series, winning last visit here 33-26 (+8). Troy is 5-2 in last seven games, with one of losses at LSU, when they led 31-3 with 17:00 left- they're 4-2-1 as a favorite this year. Three of ASU's five losses are by five points or less- they're 1-2 as underdog. Sun Belt home favorites are 9-7 vs spread.

Florida International had tough 57-51 OT loss in a rivalry game at FAU last week, their fourth loss in last five games; they split last two games vs Western Kentucky, 14-35/38-35, with both played here. Panthers are 2-1 as faorite this season. Hilltoppers haven't played in three weeks, are 2-5-1 vs spread as underdog, losing away games by 18-34-38-14-10 pts.

Tulsa scored 94 points in winning last two games that followed 2-game losing streak; Hurricanes are 8-3 vs spread as favorite this year, 5-0 at home where they average 61 ppg. East Carolina won first three games and five of last six, but lost three in row in between, giving up 35.3 ppg. Pirates are 2-1 as underdog; three of their four losses are by 15+ points. C-USA favorites are 20-27 against spread in conference games this year.

Boston College beat Virginia Tech in last two regular season meetings, by 14-10/28-23 scores, but lost 30-16 to Hokies in LY's ACC title game, as Tech held them scoreless in second half of Ryan's last college game. BC won, covered last four games despite losing QB Crane (collarbone); they are 4-1 away from home, losing only to North Carolina. Tech won three of last four games despite erratic QB play- they lost last three on road.

Florida won, covered last seven lined games, with 42-14 win vs Vandy closest game they've played since home loss to Ole Miss. Gators have 13 INTs in last five games (+11 TO ratio in those five games). Alabama won at Georgia, on neutral field vs Clemson when underdog this season, scoring 75 points in those two games, but three of last five teams they've played already fired their coach. SEC favorites are 20-25 vs spread.

Oklahoma has been killing people, scoring 62.8 ppg in last four games; Sooners are 8-2 vs spread as favorite this year. Missouri lost 56-31 at Texas the only time they were underdog this season; they lost 38-17 to Oklahoma in this game LY (+3), in game that was 17-all at half. Big 12 favorites are 22-29 vs spread this season. Game is at Arrowhead, where Mizzou lost to Kansas on very sloppy track last week. Will the field be any better this week?

SEC Championship Game
By Brian Edwards

We won’t risk irritating legends like Billy Cannon, Joe Namath, Fran Tarkenton, Archie Manning, Bo Jackson and Herschel Walker by implying that this is the most anticipated game in SEC football history. No, we won’t go there.

But we will go here: Since the SEC Championship Game was formed in 1992, this is undoubtedly The Big One. Bigger than the first one at Legion Field in Birmingham, where Antonio Langham intercepted a Shane Matthews pass and returned it for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to lift Alabama to a 28-21 win that led to the school’s last national title.

This game is bigger than in 1994 when Florida shook off the Choke at Doak to beat an undefeated ‘Bama squad 24-23 at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. It’s bigger than the ’96 contest when the Gators beat the Crimson Tide 45-30 on the way to their first national championship.

How could this UF-‘Bama matchup be bigger than those aforementioned games that led to national titles for both schools? Because this is the first time that either winner will advance to the BCS Championship Game, while the loser misses out on the same opportunity. In essence, this is a Final Four matchup with a March Madness feel to it.

In ’92, UF was trying to spoil the Tide’s national-title hopes, but the Gators had no aspirations of that sort. In ’94, Florida did indeed ruin Alabama’s national-title quest with its thrilling comeback win orchestrated by Steve Spurrier’s brilliant play-calling on the game-winning drive.

In ’96, the Tide was trying to play the spoiler role, but UF’s victory propelled them to a rematch with FSU that went the Gators’ way. In ’99, when neither team was in the national-title hunt, Alabama spanked Florida by a 34-7 count in a brutal shellacking.

Those games were pivotal for both of these storied programs, but none matched what’s at stake Saturday afternoon at 4:00 p.m. Eastern in downtown Atlanta. And there’s also this factoid: The loser will go to the Sugar Bowl and have to face an unbeaten Utah squad in a nothing-to-gain contest (think Boise St. vs. Oklahoma from two years ago).

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Florida (11-1 straight up, 8-2 against the spread) as an 8 ½-point favorite with a total of 50. As of early Friday afternoon, most spots had the Gators at 10 with the total in the 51-52 range. Bettors can back the Tide to win outright for an attractive plus-280 payout (risk $100 to win $280).

“We opened Florida as a nine-point favorite,” said Eddie Franks, Head Oddsmaker at Brobury Sports. “With a lot of early action on the Gators, we quickly moved it to 9 1/2.”

Urban Meyer’s team has won eight in a row by 28 points or more, winning by an average of 39.6 points per game. The Gators have scored 38 points or more in eight straight games, averaging 51.7 PPG during that stretch. They have covered the spread in every lined game since their lone loss of the year, a 31-30 home defeat against Ole Miss on Sep. 27.

“You can't argue the superiority of the Gators’ offense," Franks added. "UF's 46.3 points per game dwarfs Alabama's 32.1, and that stat is even more impressive when you consider the Gators had a tougher strength of schedule (although both teams had very weak non-conference games and the SEC teams behind them are not as competitive as in years past). It seems Urban Meyer has finally built a team stacked with the speed, power, and cunning that were trademarks of Gator football during the Steve Spurrier Era.”

Alabama (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) hasn’t collected the style points that UF has garnered in recent weeks, but it’s not as if the Tide hasn’t been hooking up its backers. They have taken the cash in five consecutive games, including last week’s 36-0 win over Auburn as 14 ½-point favorites.

The win snapped a six-game losing streak for ‘Bama in the Iron Bowl. Glen Coffee led the way with 20 carries for 144 yards and one touchdown, while Mark Ingram added 64 rushing yards and a pair of scores.

Alabama’s strength on offense is its line that might be the nation’s best. Junior OT Andre Smith is a given All-American and senior center Antoine Caldwell is one of the SEC’s best. The Tide has a powerful trio of running backs that can run between the tackles and take it to the house.

Coffee has rushed for 1,235 yards and nine touchdowns for the season, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Ingram has 11 rushing TDs and averages 5.4 YPC. Roy Upchurch also has four rushing TDs and a 6.0 YPC average.

Senior QB John Parker Wilson doesn’t have flashy numbers – a 9/5 touchdown-interception ratio – but he has done everything Nick Saban has asked of him. Because Alabama has been ahead from the get-go in nearly every game with the exception of its road win at LSU, Wilson hasn’t needed to take many shots down the field.

However, Alabama’s passing game has big-play capability. Most notably, the Tide has one of the best wide receivers in the country in freshman Julio Jones, who has 46 receptions for 723 yards and four TDs.

Florida’s offense gets most of the notoriety, but the Gators have one of the nation’s premier defenses as well. UF is second in the SEC in scoring defense, allowing just 12.2 PPG. This unit is led by All-American middle linebacker Brandon Spikes, who has 80 tackles, two sacks and four interceptions.

Spikes had a pick in last week’s 45-15 win at FSU as the Gators easily covered the spread as 16 ½-point favorites. Tim Tebow threw for 185 yards and three TDs without an interception. Last year’s Heisman winner also rushed for 80 yards and one TD.

For the season, Tebow has an incredible 25/2 TD-INT ratio. He also has 507 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. UF’s offense goes through Tebow, but he has weapons galore at his disposal.

The Gators have four players – Jeff Demps, Percy Harvin, Chris Rainey and Brandon James – who are capable of going the distance on any given touch. Harvin has scored a touchdown in 14 consecutive games. He has nine rushing TDs and averages 8.8 YPC. Harvin also has a team-high 35 receptions for 595 yards and seven TDs.

However, Harvin sprained his ankle against the Seminoles and hasn’t practiced all week. UF is hoping he can play and the guess here is that he will. How effective he will be is the burning question.

If Harvin can’t go, it’s a loss for the Gators but not one they can’t overcome. James can fill in some and WR Louis Murphy can also move into the slot.

UF will be facing the best defense it has seen all year. ‘Bama leads the SEC in scoring defense, giving up just 11.5 PPG. The Tide has held nine of its 12 opponents to 14 points or less.

But can they contain a UF offense that's looked unstoppable over the last two months? I posed that question to VI handicapper James Manos on Thursday's edition of the Power Hours.

"There's a reason Florida is such a big favorite," Manos said. "If you have quality power ratings, they tell you Florida is 9-10 points better than Alabama. I think the Gators roll in this game. They are going to dominate with their speed in the Georgia Dome."

The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for Alabama, 6-1 in its last seven games. On the flip side, the ‘over’ is 8-3 overall for Florida and has hit in each of its last six games.

CBS will provide television coverage at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--In SEC Championship history, the richest underdogs to win outright were seven-point ‘dogs. That has happened twice. Most recently, LSU beat Tennessee 31-20 as a seven-point underdog in 2001. In ’99, ‘Bama was a seven-point ‘dog when it thumped UF by a 34-7 count.

--UF's Dempsey has six rushing TDs and averages an eye-opening 9.6 YPC. Rainey has four rushing TDs and averages 8.0 YPC.

--Alabama owns a 6-0-1 spread record in the last seven meetings against Florida. These schools haven't met since 2006 when the Gators collected a 28-13 win as 16 1/2-point home favorites.

--This is the first matchup between Saban and Meyer, both of whom are considered among the top handful of coaches in the country. Something tells me it will be the first of many.

--The Big 12 title game started in 1996 with Texas beating Nebraska 37-27 as a 20 ½-point underdog, clearing the way for Florida to go to the Sugar Bowl for a rematch with FSU that the Gators won 52-20 for their first national championship. Since then, two other double-digit underdogs have won the Big 12 Championship Game outright, so Texas fans should go into Saturday with some hope that Missouri can pull a shocker.

--The other two double-digit ‘dogs to win the Big 12 were Texas A&M in 1998, when the Aggies beat Kansas State 36-33 as 17-point ‘dogs. Also, Kansas St. destroyed Oklahoma 35-7 in 2003 as a 14-point underdog, denying the Sooners a shot at a national championship.

--The last time Mizzou was a double-digit underdog was when it covered the number in a 41-31 loss at Oklahoma as a 13-point ‘dog in 2007.

vegasinsider.com

Big XII Championship
By Judd Hall

Oklahoma is not only playing for its third straight conference championship and sixth title in nine seasons. They’re also gunning for a shot to win the national championship this Saturday. All that stands in the Sooners’ way are the Tigers at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri in the Big XII title game on ABC at 8:30 p.m. EST.

The Sooners have received a lot of flack for how they made the league title game via the BCS standings, but you can’t say they didn’t play their way into this spot. Oklahoma has won its last six games by a combined score of 357-184. The past two wins coming against then No. 2 Texas Tech (65-21) on Nov. 22 and No. 11 Oklahoma State (61-41) just last Saturday.

Those big wins have helped prompt Las Vegas Sports Consultants to install Oklahoma as a 14 ½-point favorite with the total of 77. Eddie Franks, head oddsmaker at Brobury Sports, notes how the public is already making its voice heard. “Everyone and their mothers truly believe that Oklahoma is going to win and that makes it difficult to set a line.” “The line originally put the Sooners as 15 ½-point favorites, but after a lot of early action we've already moved the line to 17,” Franks concluded.

It’s hard not to figure out why the public is so gung ho about OU winning this matchup. Sam Bradford has become one of the nation’s elite quarterbacks this season by ranking fourth in total offense (344.8 yards per game). And he has completed 64 percent of his passes for an average of 338 YPG with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 23:1 in his last six starts.

Bradford also has two NFL quality receivers to throw the ball to for OU in wide out Juaquin Iglesias and tight end Jermaine Gresham. These upperclassmen have combined for 1,773 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns.

The Sooners are just as capable to beat you on the ground with a tag team of Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray. Brown averages 82.3 YPG rushing this season with 17 touchdowns, while Murray is gaining 83.5 YPG with 14 scores of his own.

While Oklahoma will want to throw the ball on the Tigers’ secondary, which is the worst in the Big XII as evidenced by them giving up 277.1 YPG through the air. The only problem with that is the temperature is slated to be around 26 degrees on Saturday night in Kansas City. What that means is the ball will be like an oblong stone for the Sooners’ receiving corps.

Instead of throwing, OU will look to grinding out long drives of at least 10 plays or more. So expect Brown and Murray to get a lot of carries in this matchup. This should be fairly effective against a Mizzou defense that is talented, but it isn’t terribly deep.

Missouri played its way into the Big XII title game for the second year in a row thanks to its top shelf signal caller, Chase Daniel. The senior from Texas had a great November, connecting on 71.6 percent of his passes for 301.3 passing YPG and 11 touchdowns. Unfortunately, Daniel also threw seven picks due to some questionable decision making. Also, he’s not had a great career against the Sooners, losing all three challenges with just one touchdown to six interceptions.

Mizzou also has a pair of gifted receivers in Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman. Maclin leads the team with 1,175 receiving yards and 11 scores, while Coffman is a quality TE with 872 yards and another nine touchdowns. Coffman has been injured recently with a case of turf toe, but has said he will be on the field for this game.

The Tigers don’t have to rely exclusively on the passing game as they’ve got a very capable rushing attack led by Derrick Washington. The sophomore from Peculiar, Missouri has rushed for 963 yards this season on just 152 carries, scoring 17 touchdowns along the way.

While the running offense for Missouri is strong, it will have a big challenge against the Sooners’ front line. Oklahoma is 18th in the nation against the run by surrendering just 109.8 YPG on the ground. And OU has recovered 14 fumbles this season, which ranks them 11th amongst all Football Bowl Subdivision programs.

Oklahoma has dominated this series recently, posting a 9-1 straight up record while going 5-4-1 against the spread in the last 10 meetings with Mizzou.

Bob Stoops has gone 20-4 SU, but 10-14 ATS when his teams are favored by a double-digit margin on the road in conference play since coming to Norman in 1999. That stat may prove meaningless since they are 4-0 SU and ATS this season.

Gary Pinkel hasn’t been successful in the standings when it comes to his Tigers being double-digit ‘dogs on the road in Big XII play, going 0-7 SU since 2001. Yet they know how to make bettors happy with a 4-2-1 record ATS in that spot.

This is the first time in the Big XII’s has seen the same participants for the championship game return from the previous season. As far as teams meeting up again in this title game, that’s happened four times. And the loser of the first meeting was able to exact some revenge in their second go round with a 3-1 mark SU and ATS.

The Sooners know that they will make the BCS title game in Miami, Florida with a win over Mizzou. But there has been two occasions that a team from the Big XII had a wrench thrown in their championship aspirations. In 1998 Kansas State was a 17-point favorite against the Aggies, but fell in double overtime, 36-33, and let Florida State play for the national title.

The Wildcats took their shot at being the spoiler later on as 15-point ‘dogs against Oklahoma in 2003. K-State soundly destroyed the Sooners in that matchup 35-7. Yet OU was still able to get into the BCS title game thanks to the computers and lose to LSU…yielding the first split national title (AP trophy went to the Trojans) of the Bowl Championship Series era.

vegasinsider.com

West Coast Tip Sheet
By Brad Young

The college football regular season ends Saturday, and there are some quality matchups on the West Coast although most of the attention will be on the SEC and Big XII title games. Saturday’s results will go a long way in determining the pairing for the upcoming bowl season.

Washington is playing out the string, and is still searching for its first victory of the year. Tyrone Willingham will be coaching his last game with the Huskies after being let go after his dismal campaign in Seattle. California is slated for the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, and will finish in fourth place in the Pac-10 with a victory.

Southern Cal is going to wear its home red uniforms for its road game against UCLA, reviving a tradition where both teams wore home uniforms until 1982. The Trojans will be docked a timeout, but UCLA head coach Rick Neuheisel said he will burn a timeout at the beginning of the game. USC appears headed to another Rose Bowl appearance on New Year’s Day to take on Big Ten champ Penn State. Should the Trojans lose to the Bruins, then Oregon State appears headed to Pasadena.

The winner of the ‘Duel in the Desert’ between rivals Arizona and Arizona State will play in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Wildcats are hoping for revenge after needing a victory over the Sun Devils the past two years to become bowl eligible. Arizona State won both games, but now needs a victory in this spot to reach six wins and advance to the postseason.

Hawaii home games are the most bet college games on the board, with gamblers trying to recover from earlier losses. The Warriors and Cincinnati Bearcats are already bowl eligible, with no recent history between these two programs.

Now let’s take a closer look at these four matchups.

**Washington at California**

-The Las Vegas Hilton installed California as a decided 35-point home ‘chalk’ over Washington, with the total set at 51. FOX Sports Net will provide coverage of Saturday’s contest beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET.

-Washington (0-11 straight up, 1-10 against the spread) hasn’t played since November 22 when the team lost the Apple Cup to rival Washington State in double overtime as a 10-point road favorite, 16-13. The combined 29 points never seriously threatened the 47-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the third consecutive contest with a total posted.

-The Huskies entered halftime leading 10-0, and finished the contest with advantages in first downs (20-15), rushing yards (224-171) and time of possession (35:26-24:34). Quarterback Ronnie Fouch was 11-of-16 passing for 99 yards with an interception, while Willie Griffin had 26 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown.

-California (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) snapped a two-game SU losing skid by dismantling Stanford in The Big Game as an eight-point home ‘chalk,’ 37-16. The combined 53 points eclipsed the 50-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 4-1 the past five games with a total attached.

-The Golden Bears broke open a close contest by outscoring the Cardinal in the third quarter, 20-0. Cal finished the game with advantages in rushing yards (287-123) and turnovers forced (4-1). Signal caller Kevin Riley completed 7-of-11 passes for 101 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Running back Jahvid Best paced the ground game with 19 carries for 201 yards and two scores.

-Washington hasn’t won a game since last year with its victory over Cal as a seven-point home underdog, 37-23. There was no total on that contest.

-Washington offensive lineman Jordan White-Frisbee (foot), wide receiver Jordan Polk (concussion), running back David Freeman (ankle), offensive lineman Ben Ossai (concussion) and defensive back Matt Mosley (knee) are ‘questionable’ against the Golden Bears.

-Cal strong safety Brett Johnson (shoulder) is ‘questionable’ versus the Huskies, while offensive lineman Mike Tepper (pectoral) is expected to miss this matchup.

-Saturday’s forecast for Berkeley, California calls for partly cloudy skies with a 10 percent chance of precipitation. The projected high calls for 64 degrees, with a low of 45.

**Southern Cal at UCLA**

-The Las Vegas Hilton opened Southern Cal as a 33-point road favorite over UCLA, with the total set at 47. ABC Sports starts its coverage of this contest at 4:30 p.m. ET.

-Southern Cal (10-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) continued its winning ways by throttling Notre Dame last weekend as a 33-point home ‘chalk,’ 38-3. The Trojans had failed to cover their previous two outings before beating the Fighting Irish.

-USC dominated Notre Dame across the board, with advantages in first downs (22-4), rushing yards (175-50), passing yards (274-41) and time of possession (34:01-25:59). Quarterback Mark Sanchez was 22-of-31 passing for 267 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, while Joe McKnight ran four times for 63 yards with a score.

-UCLA (4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS) dropped to 1-3 SU and ATS its last four games after getting roughed up by Arizona State November 28 as a 10-point road underdog, 34-9. The combined 43 points failed to topple the 44 ½-point closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to cash the third consecutive contest.

-The Bruins led in most statistical categories and limited the Sun Devils to just 122 yards of total offense, but they were unable to overcome four turnovers that resulted in 28 points for ASU. Quarterback Kevin Craft was 24-of-39 passing for 204 yards with three interceptions, while running back Derrick Coleman had three carries for 43 yards.

-USC is 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS the previous four meetings with UCLA after winning last season as a 19-point home favorite, 24-7. The combined 31 points failed to topple the 46-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 3-1 the last four games in this series.

-USC fullback Stanley Havili (ankle) is ‘questionable’ versus the Bruins, while offensive lineman Nick Howell (ankle) is expected to miss this matchup.

-UCLA offensive lineman Nick Ekbatani (knee) is ‘probable’ against the Trojans.

-Saturday’s forecast for Pasadena, California calls for partly cloudy skies, with a high of 76 degrees and a low of 49.

**Arizona State at Arizona**

-The Las Vegas Hilton lists Arizona as a 10 ½-point home ‘chalk’ over Arizona State, with the total set at 51. ESPN will provide coverage of ‘The Duel in the Desert’ beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET.

-Arizona State (5-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) is riding a three-game SU winning streak after beating UCLA Nov. 28 as a 10-point home favorite, 34-9. The Sun Devils also improved to 3-1 ATS the previous four outings.

-Signal caller Rudy Carpenter completed 13-of-26 passing for 101 yards with an interception, while running back Keegan Herring had 13 carries for 32 yards. Wideout Chris McGaha caught four passes for 51 yards, but the entire offense generated just 122 yards of total offense. Carpenter endured three sacks for a -24 yards.

-Arizona (6-5 SU and ATS) enters this matchup by dropping its last two games SU and previous three outings ATS after falling to Oregon State Nov. 22 as a three-point home ‘chalk,’ 19-17. The combined 36 points never seriously threatened the 56-point closing total.

-The Wildcats appeared poised for the victory, but allowed the Beavers to march down the field late in the game before they kicked the winning field goal as time expired. Quarterback Willie Tuitama was 16-of-22 passing for 158 yards with a touchdown, while freshman running back Keola Antolin had 25 carries for 114 yards and a score.

-Arizona State is 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS the previous four meetings with Arizona after winning last season as a seven-point home favorite, 20-17. The combined 37 points never seriously threatened the 57-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the third consecutive contest in this series.

-Arizona State defensive tackle David Smith (stinger) is ‘questionable’ against the Wildcats, while defensive lineman Jonathan English (knee) is expected to miss this matchup.

-Arizona is reporting no players as ‘probable,’ ‘questionable’ or ‘doubtful’ versus the Sun Devils.

-Saturday’s forecast for Tucson, Arizona calls for mostly cloudy skies, with a high of 74 degrees and a low of 52.

**Cincinnati at Hawaii**

-The Las Vegas Hilton opened Cincinnati as a seven-point road favorite over Hawaii, with the total listed at 50 ½. ESPN2 will start its coverage of this contest at 11:30 p.m. ET.

-Cincinnati (10-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) cruised past Syracuse last weekend as a 21-point home ‘chalk,’ 30-10. The Bearcats had covered four games in a row before failing versus the Orange. There was no total on that contest.

-Cincinnati dominated Syracuse in first downs (25-8), passing yards (272-59) and time of possession (34:53-25:07). Quarterback Tony Pike was 28-of-44 passing for 272 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, while running back John Goebel had 10 carries for 67 yards and a score.

-Hawaii (7-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) recorded its third SU victory in a row after upending Washington State last weekend as a 27 ½-point home favorite, 24-10. The Warriors had covered back-to-back outings before failing to do so versus the Cougars.

-Hawaii finished the contest with advantages in first downs (20-14), passing yards (315-76), turnovers (2-1) and time of possession (33:48-26:12). Signal caller Greg Alexander was 19-of-34 passing for 315 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, while rushing 14 times for 43 yards.

-The Bearcats and Warriors have not played each other the previous few seasons.

-Cincinnati defensive end Lamonte Nelms (possible suspension) is ‘questionable’ versus the Warriors, while defensive back Mike Mikens (knee) is ‘out.’

-Hawaii defensive back Ryan Mouton (ankle) is ‘questionable’ against the Bearcats.

-Saturday’s forecast for Honolulu, Hawaii calls for partly cloudy skies, with a high of 81 degrees and a low of 71.

vegasinsider.com

ACC Championship Game
By Judd Hall

It seemed like a war of attrition when it came to figuring out who would wind up playing for the Atlantic Coast Conference championship this season. Eight teams had a legitimate chance of making the trip to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida this weekend at one time or another during the year. And when all of the dust settled during that late jockeying for the divisional titles, we wound up with a rematch of last year’s championship game between Boston College and Virginia Tech.

The Eagles weren’t expected to have a chance at winning the league title this year after losing most of their offensive weapons, most notably quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Kevin Challenger. But they still found a way to win four straight games to claim their second straight ACC Atlantic Division title.

To win its first trip to a BCS bowl game though, Boston College must do it with Dominique Davis under center thanks to Chris Crane going down with a broken collarbone.

While this is a tall task to ask of any true freshman QB, Davis has answered the call admirably. The Lakeland, Florida native helped BC clinch its second straight divisional championship by completing 50 percent of his passes for 134 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 28-21 win against Maryland last Saturday.

Davis also gives BC head coach Jeff Jagodzinski a new wrinkle since he is a much better open field runner than Crane. That mobility will help out this weekend with running back Josh Haden seems to be out of the lineup with an injured shoulder. That shouldn’t be as big a loss as Montel Harris leads the Eagles with 798 yards and five scores during his freshman campaign.

The Eagles will have their work cut out for them against Virginia Tech’s defense. Frank Beamer’s Hokies are the sixth best defensive team in the country, giving up 274.5 yards per game this season. And they’re allowing only 99.8 rushing YPG in their last four matches.

With a run defense as stout as the Hokies possess, you know that they want Davis to beat them with his arm. Virginia Tech’s secondary has been clamped down on receivers recently, giving up 97 passing yards in its last two matches and an average of 115.3 YPG in the past four tilts.

While its defense is ready for action, Tech’s offense could be in a world of hurt on its own. The uncertainty at the QB position with Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor has lasted for much of the year. All signs point to Taylor starting under center, but he hasn’t has had little success against the Eagles during his career. In last year’s ACC title game, Taylor had 86 total yards. And he threw for 90 yards and one pick in his start against Boston College on Oct. 18.

Boston College’s defense will once again pose a problem for Taylor, freshman Darren Evans and company this Saturday. The Eagles possess the seventh best rush defense in the country with 87.3 YPG this year. And they’ve surrendered just 44 rushing YPG in their last three fixtures.

The Eagles can also rendering your aerial attack useless with a secondary that is No. 35 in the nation by giving up 189.3 passing YPG. And they are as opportunistic as they come to snaring errant passes with 25 interceptions, the most of any program in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

This is the first time in ACC title game history that we’re getting a rematch of the previous season. Last year, the Eagles won as three-point road ‘dogs against Va Tech, 14-10. Yet the Hokies claimed the Orange Bowl bid as five-point favorites, 30-16 last December in Jacksonville.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants believes this game is too close to call by making it a pick em situation with a total of 39 ½. Some betting shops have listed the Eagles as slight one-point favorites.

Boston College being a road “chalk” might not be such a good thing for bettors as they are 3-1 straight up, but 1-3 against the spread since Jagodzinski has been in charge.

The Hokies, on the other hand, are 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS when installed as road underdogs over the last two seasons.

Even though the ACC title game is in its fourth year of existence, we still have a trend brewing. That’s because the favorites are just 1-2 SU and ATS in the last three contests.

You can watch this match on ABC at 1:00 p.m. EST.

vegasinsider.com

College football top 25 cheat sheet: Week 15
By MATT SEVERANCE

Alabama vs. Florida (-9.5)

Why Crimson Tide cover: Nick Saban will play the lack-of-respect card with his top-ranked team being such a big underdog. Even if Florida WR Percy Harvin plays, he’ll be limited and that’s a huge weapon the Tide won’t have to deal with. The Tide’s No. 3 overall defense is the best Florida has seen this year. Alabama has beaten three top-15 teams on the road or at a neutral site this year. The Tide are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings.

Why Gators cover: They are rolling like no other team outside of Oklahoma. UF has scored an average of 53.7 points while winning each of its last seven games by at least four touchdowns. Tim Tebow has 17 passing and 10 rushing touchdowns in his last seven games. Florida’s defense is overshadowed by the offense; the defense ranks in the top 10 in total and scoring defense.

Total (51.5): The over is 5-0 in UF’s past five neutral-site games.

Missouri vs. Oklahoma (-16.5)

Why Tigers cover: Chase Daniel and Co. will be looking for a little payback after getting dominated by OU last year. Oklahoma lost another starting linebacker to injury in Auston Box. Sooners QB Sam Bradford has torn ligaments on his left hand, which shouldn’t affect throws but could be a factor in snaps. The Sooners have allowed at least 21 points in seven straight games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

Why Sooners cover: They had no trouble with Mizzou last year and this year’s OU team appears much better with the Tigers looking shakier. Bradford leads the country in TD passes, and Missouri’s pass defense is fourth from the bottom in Division I-A. OU has scored an unthinkable 58 or more points in five straight games. Star defensive end Auston English is likely to return from injury this week. The Sooners have covered in every game but the loss to Texas this year.

Total (78.5): These two teams have combined for nearly 1,200 points this year, and neither team can stop the pass.

Southern Cal at UCLA (+32)

Why Trojans cover: The Bruins are near the bottom in scoring, while USC is having a historic defensive season. The Trojans have allowed only 10 touchdowns this year and an NCAA-low 7.8 points per game. No team anywhere has given up fewer points per game in the last 13 seasons. Pete Carroll is 6-1 vs. UCLA and many of his players remember the upset to the Bruins in 2006.

Why Bruins cover: They have played spoiler in this series after knocking off No. 2 USC in 2006. Rick Neuheisel has made it a point to tell his players not to fear the crosstown Trojans and this spread is the biggest in the history of this rivalry. USC is just 2-5 in its past seven December games and Pete Carroll’s teams sometimes have a hiccup against unranked foes they should clobber (see UCLA in ’06, Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State this year).

Total (47.5): The under is 9-1-1 in UCLA’s past 11 Pac-10 games.

Cincinnati at Hawaii (+7)

Why Bearcats cover: Coach Brian Kelly is guaranteeing his team won’t have a letdown and is pushing for the club to win a school record 11th game. Cincinnati has taken off lately under QB Tony Pike and has won nine of 10 games. Hawaii is 0-5 ATS in its past five non-conference games and was routed by two non-conference ranked teams this season. No doubt the Bearcats will be fired up knowing that Kelly says he is staying put.

Why Warriors cover: The travel and time difference certainly could take a toll on the Bearcats. Cincinnati is already guaranteed a BCS bowl berth so the players’ motivation in the sunny climate could be an issue. Hawaii has just one loss at home, while both of Cincinnati’s losses this year were away from the Queen City. QB Greg Alexander has found his rhythm after leading Hawaii to four wins in five games and throwing 10 touchdown passes to just one interception over that span.

Total (50.5): The under is 7-1 in Hawaii’s past eight non-conference games.

Boston College vs. Virginia Tech (pick’em)

Why Eagles cover: They have already handled the Hokies once this year, winning 28-23 despite turning the ball over five times. BC held Tech to a season-low 240 total yards in the loss. BC’s rush defense is seventh in the country and it gave Tech fits in the first meeting. BC is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings.

Why Hokies cover: They lost to Boston College last regular season but then turned the tables in the 2007 ACC title game. The Hokies allowed 28 points in the first meeting, but that was when BC had starting QB Chris Crane healthy. Eagles redshirt freshman Dominique Davis makes his second career start this week against the nation’s No. 6 defense.

Total (39): The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.

Pittsburgh at Connecticut (-2.5)

Why Panthers cover: They won the Backyard Brawl against WVU even though RB LeSean McCoy netted a career-high in rushing yards. UConn, meanwhile, has just two wins in its past six games. Pitt has the third-ranked rush defense in the Big East and it can stack the line against UConn RB Donald Brown because the Huskies aren’t much of a passing threat with only four TD passes this year against 12 picks. The Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

Why Huskies cover: QB Tyler Lorenzen should be more in synch with the offense in his third game back from a broken foot. The Huskies are 6-1 this year when he starts. UConn is 7-2 ATS in its past nine home games. Pitt QB Bill Stull has struggled the past two games, looking very bad against West Virginia last week.

Total (46.5): The over is 4-0 in UConn’s past four games.

BIG-12 Championship Preview

The fourth-ranked Oklahoma Sooners battle the 19th-ranked Missouri Tigers for the BIG 12 crown at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Saturday night. Oklahoma finished the 2008 regular season 11-1 (9-2 ATS) scoring 53.3 points per game on 556.7 total yards split between 354.2 passing, 201.4 rushing yards per contest. Defensively, Oklahoma is giving up 24.8 PPG behind a strong run stop unit (109.8 RYG) however the pass defense allowing 12.2 yards per completion and 249.7 yards per game suggests the secondary can be burned. Missouri the Big 12 North representative in this championship brings to the contest a 9-3 (5-6 ATS) mark on a solid 509.4 total yards which generates 45.0 PPG. On the other side of the ball Tigers give up 24.7 PPG doing a commendable job stopping the run (119.7 RYG) but like Sooners the pass defense allowing 277.7 PYG is suspect. Sooners have dominated this series of late winning six straight (3-3 ATS) including last seasons 41-31 regular season victory and a 38-17 win in the Big 12 title game. Sooners have been pegged 16.5 point favorites despite QB Sam Bradford (4080 yds 46 TD's) playing hurt. Trends of interest: Sooners 14-6 ATS laying double digits, 2-5 ATS on neutral field - Tigers 8-9 ATS taking DD, 5-2 ATS on neutral grounds.

CFB Streaks & Notes

SEC Championship Game

Conference supremacy along with a likely spot in the BCS title game is at stake when top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0, 8-0 SEC, 9-3 ATS) take on second-ranked Florida Gators (11-1, 7-1 SEC, 9-2 ATS).

A classic matchup featuring Alabama's staunch defense allowing 11.5 PPG on 248.5 total yards (174.9 PYG, 73.6 RYG) and Florida's prolific offense racking up 46.3 PPG on 449.4 total yards spearheaded by Tim Tebow's 2299 passing (25 TD), 507 rushing yards (12 TD). It's well to note that since Gators lone defeat back in September coach Urban Meyer has the troops firing on all cylinders defeating opponents by a 39.6 margin of victory (414-97).

Tough passing up 9.5 points with undefeated 'Bama' however hidden behind Gators highly recognized offense is it's own solid defense allowing a puny 12.3 PPG on 275.7 total yards. Gators looking invincible of late and sporting an 11-2 ATS mark it's last thirteen vs conference foes should take care of business.

Note: These two have not met in a league title since '99 whne Tide pasted Gators 34-7 as 7-point underdog. Last regular season meeting ('2006) Gators snagged a 28-13 victory as 15-point betting favorites

Handicapping Conference Championship Games
by Lenny Del Genio

Conference Title Games are an unusual animal. Created solely for the conference’s own financial gain, only a select amount of leagues play one. The SEC was the first to do so in 1991 and the Big 12 and MAC followed soon after. In 2005, the ACC and Conference USA both expanded, necessitating the creation of their own title game. The irony of these Conference Championships is that they have often cost the league more money than they could ever gain by playing the game. National title contenders that have to go through a Conference Championship Game are at a huge disadvantage when compared to teams from the Big Ten and Pac 10. It’s another big game on the schedule and since it comes at the end of the season, we’ve seen several teams in years past play their way right out of a possible BCS berth by coming up short in their league’s title game.

From a sports betting perspective, Conference Championship Games are very difficult to handicap. The tendency is to go with the favorite, who is often undefeated or is already thinking BCS. However, faced with an underdog that has one shot to make millions for their school, these favorites often come up short.

Last year, favorites swept the board in the Conference Title Games. It is interesting to note that for the second consecutive year the #1 ranked team in the country will enter its conference championship game as a prohibitive underdog. Last year, then top-ranked Missouri was just +3, but was blown out by Oklahoma, 38-17. This year, top-ranked Alabama is a TEN-point dog vs. red-hot Florida.

Here are some trends and history to consider for the respective Conference Championship Game.

ACC

The ACC created its Championship Game when Miami, Boston College, and Virginia Tech all came over from the Big East. Interestingly, the idea was to create the potential for a second Miami-Florida State matchup, but the Hurricanes have been a total bust since coming over and so has the ACC.

The underdog not only cashed in the first two title games, and won outright as well. In 2005, Florida State stunned Virginia Tech, 27-22, as 14-point dogs. In 2006, a 10-2 Wake Forest squad was given no respect by the oddsmakers and “upset” Georgia Tech, 9-6 (+1).

Last year, a favorite won and covered for the first time ever in the ACC Championship as Virginia Tech (-4) downed Boston College 30-16 in a big revenge game. You probably remember the Hokies famous Thursday Night meltdown at home against the Eagles during last year’s regular season. If you don’t, Tech led BC 10-0 with just two minutes to go in the game before allowing Eagles QB Matt Ryan to throw a pair of touchdowns that stunned the Blacksburg faithful.

It will be a rematch in the 2008 Title Game with Virginia Tech once again playing with revenge for a regular season loss (BC won at home, 28-23, back on 10/18). However, this year it is the Eagles that enter as the hot team. They have won and covered four straight, just like the Hokies did entering last year’s Title Game, with the only difference that BC’s four wins have not all come by double-digits.

Big 12

The Big 12 Title Game was created when the old Big Eight merged with four refugee schools from the now defunct Southwest Conference – Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas, and Texas A&M. Prior to last year, only six teams had ever qualified – three from each division. From the North, Colorado (4), Nebraska (4), and Kansas State (3) were the previous representatives. From the South, only Oklahoma (5), Texas (3) and Texas A&M (2) had made it. Missouri made its first ever appearance last year, but as mentioned above, they lost. The South is now on a 5-1 SU/ATS run, with Oklahoma having won four times.

In the last four Championship Games, the South has outscored the North, 171-30! The only team from the North to win over the last six seasons was Kansas State, who screwed up the BCS in 2003 by upsetting top-ranked Oklahoma. Can Mizzou do the same this year? The North Division winner has not been favored since 1999, when #2 Nebraska beat #12 Texas, 22-6. Overall, the South is 8-4 ATS vs. the North. The favorite is also 8-4 ATS all-time.

The 2007 Title Game was the most anticipated in history. The 2008 edition is once again Oklahoma vs. Missouri, but is expected to be a one-sided affair with Oklahoma a monster 17-point choice. Might not be enough. The Sooners come in with the nation’s top offense and have scored 61 or more points in four straight games. A possible BCS Title game berth hangs in the balance.

Conference USA

No one really pays attention to this game. All the winner gets is a trip to the Liberty Bowl, which is played in Memphis, one of the coldest weather Bowl sites.

With no national spotlight and little pressure, the favorite is a perfect 3 for 3 SU and ATS in the C-USA Title Game. In ’05, Tulsa beat up Central Florida, 44-27, as two-point chalk. In 2006, Houston took care of Southern Miss, 34-20, as five-point favorites. Last year, UCF got revenge on Tulsa with a 44-25 beatdown (were seven-point favorites).

Tulsa makes its 3rd appearance this year, taking on first time participant East Carolina. The Pirates started the season hot with outright dog wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia to work its way into the national rankings. They have since lost 8 of 10 ATS. After a mid-season three-game SU losing skid, they won five of their final six games. Tulsa was also once unbeaten and in the Top 20, but lost two of its final four. The Golden Hurricane rank second in FBS in scoring average and this game will be played on their home field, where they are scoring at over a 60 point per game clip this season. They are currently favored by 12 points at the betting window. These teams did not meet during the regular season and last played in 2006 (Tulsa won 31-10)

SEC

The SEC Title Game is the oldest and most well-known Conference Championship, due to the fact that a berth in the National Title Game is usually at stake and that it is (usually) the best league in the country.

Overall, the Eastern Division winner has won 10 of the all-time 16 meetings. However, most of that damage was done during a six-game win streak from ’93-’98. Since then, the West has a 5-4 edge after LSU beat Tennessee last year en route to a National Championship.

No one performs better in the big game than Florida, who is 6-2 SU all-time. The East had covered three straight Title Games before last year (was a push), but is just 8-7 ATS overall. The underdog is 9-6 ATS, and four of those are outright wins.

This year we have one of the most anticipated SEC Title Games in history with #1 Alabama taking on #4 Florida. Winner goes on to play for the National Championship. The big story is the pointspread as despite being unbeaten and ranked #1 in the nation, Alabama is a 10-point underdog! The Crimson Tide will be making its fifth-all time SEC Title Game appearance and first since 1999, having played in the first three. Ironically, all four previous appearances have come vs. the Gators. The two teams have split both SU and ATS.

College News & Notes

SEC Title Game: Alabama vs Florida, Georgia Dome- significan speed and quickness edge to Florida skill players (check Harvin status)…Tebow and gator offense steamrolling opponents by 4 TD margins!…’Bama O-Line very physical…Tide secondary excellent overall…very big number for Conference Championship game with opponents combined record of 23-1

BIG 12 Title Game: Missouri vs Oklahoma, Arrowhead Stadium- Tigers last in BIG 12 pass defense…allowed 42 pts. to Illinois, 56 to Teaxs, 40 to Kansas…Oklahoma offensive prowess nearly unmatched…Bradford has accounted for 51 total TD’s…Stoops and Sooners 2 TD favorites here in ‘03, lost to K-State 35-7

ACC Title Game: Boston College vs Virginia Tech, Raymond James Stadium- BC has 8 non-offensive TD’s this season…fourth meeting in last 14 months…both teams allow 19 ppg…BC 7-4 ATS, Hokies 4-7…V Tech only 5 aerial scores all season

Conf USA Title Game: East Carolina @ Tulsa- Golden Hurricane #1 in total offense, #2 scoring offense…QB David Johnson 42 TD, 13 INT…Pirates 19-7 as underdog since 2005 , incl 13-3 as road dog…

Pittsburgh @ Connecticut- QB’s Stull and Lorenzen have combined for 9 TD’s and 14 INT’s…RB’s Donald Brown (UConn) and LeSean McCoy will play in NFL…Huskies 16-6 ATS last 22 as host

Where the action is: College football line moves

Looks like with such a small slate of games, that oddsmakers were afforded the opportunity to dissect each game a little more closely. As a result, there was little line movement in this weekend’s games.

Of all the games on the board, I like Alabama the most. When they were +10.5, I bought half a point to +11 (-120). The Crimson Tide have beaten everyone in front of them, while the Gators lost to Mississippi at home. That combined with Percy Harvin not being 100 percent, is good enough for me to take the double digit points on a neutral field.

Game: Alabama vs. Florida (Game being played in Atlanta, Georgia)

Weather conditions: Dome

Where the line opened: Florida -10.5

Where it stands now: Florida -10

Where the wise action is: On Monday, sharps played Alabama +10.5. Also, got some sharp money on over 50.5 points.

Over/under movement: 50.5 to 52.

Injury Report: Florida WR Percy Harvin is questionable (ankle). Harvin leads the Gators in receptions (35) , receiving yards (595), receiving TD's (7). He also is Florida's second leading rusher (538 yds), and has nine rushing TD's

People are siding with the heavily favored Gators, with Florida getting 61 percent of the side bets. People think there will be points a plenty, as 82 percent of our players are on the over.

Game: Boston College vs. Virginia Tech (Game being played in Tampa, Florida)

Weather conditions: 72°F Mostly Cloudy; Chance Precip: 10%; Wind: From WSW 9 mph

Where the line opened: Pick 'em

Where it stands now: Boston College -1

Where the wise action is: Thursday got sharps who played BC pick 'em. Also got some sharp money under 39.5.

Over/under movement: 39.5 to 28.5

Injury Report: BC QB Chris Crane (collarbone) is out. Domonique Davis, in his first start of season, was 12-for-24 for 134 yards, two TDs and no INT's. (28-21 win against Maryland)

Little surprised that such a big amount of our players (76 percent) are on BC. Thought we would get pretty even action on this game. I know that Boston College has won five of six, but so has Virginia Tech. People expecting a low scoring game, as 64 percent of them are on the under.

Game: Missouri vs. Oklahoma (Game being played in Kansas City, Missouri)

Weather conditions: 37°F Partly Cloudy; Feels Like: 32°F; Chance Precip: 0%, Wind: From NNW 7 mph

Where the line opened: Oklahoma -15.5

Where it stands now: OU -17

Where the wise action is: On Monday, got wise OU action at -15.5 and -16.

Over/under movement: 79.5 to 78.5

Injury Report: Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin (hip) and TE Chase Coffman (toe) are probable. Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford (thumb) is also probable.

People betting OU like they already know the score, with the Sooners getting 86 percent of the action. For the total, 72 percent of our players are on the over.

Game: East Carolina at Tulsa (Game being played at Tulsa, Oklahoma)

Weather conditions: Partly 45°F Partly Cloudy; Feels Like: 41°F; Wind: From WNW 8 mph

Where the line opened: Tulsa -13

Where it stands now: Tulsa -12

Where the wise action is: Small amount on East Carolina +13

Over/under movement: Remains at 65.5

Injury Report: East Carolina banged up on the defensive line as DE Marcus Hands and DT Khalif Mitchell are both doubtful.

With Tulsa getting some home cookin', it looks like the betting public (60 percent at the moment) favors the Golden Hurricane. Two out of every three bets are on the over.

What bettors need to know: Big 12 Championship Game
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ

Game: Missouri Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Line Moves

Oklahoma opened as a 15.5 point favorite and was bet up 16.5 before moving to 17.

The total opened at 78.5 and has moved up to 79.5.

History

Oklahoma has owned the series winning 18 of 19, including two last season. Bob Stoops is 6-0 all-time against Mizzou. Gary Pinkel is 0-5 against the Sooners.

Saturday marks a rematch of last year’s Big 12 Championship game. Oklahoma came in as a field goal favorite and won easily 38-17.

Oklahoma will be going for its third straight league championship and its sixth this decade. Stoops is 5-1 in league championship games.

ATS

Oklahoma is 11-1 ATS and has gone over the total in ten of eleven.

Missouri is 5-6 ATS, 6-5 to the over.

Best offense ever?

Oklahoma’s offense may well be the best of the modern era. On Saturday, the Sooners could become the first team in NCAA history to score 60-plus points in five consecutive games. If they do, they will become the third team in history to top 700 points on the season and the first since Minnesota in 1904.

Either way, their 53.3 point per game average is the most since those 1904 Gophers averaged 55.8 ppg.

Worst pass defense ever?

Okay, so maybe the Missouri pass defense isn’t the worst ever. But it’s the worst in the Big 12 and the 116th in the nation. Kansas torched the Tiger defense all day long last week.

As if the beleaguered unit doesn’t face a big enough challenge against the Sooners, they will be playing without their best CB Castine Bridges. He's lost for the season due to injury in the Kansas loss.

Heisman chase

Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford is trying to make an impression on Heisman voters before ballots are due next week. Bradford is nearly flawless, particularly in the recent stretch of games. His TD-INT ratio since the Texas loss is 23-1. His overall ratio on the season is 46-6.

The sophomore standout did suffer ligament damage to his non-throwing thumb in last week’s game. It remains to be seen whether Bradford will be forced to work exclusively from the shotgun as he did for the remainder of the Oklahoma State game after suffering the injury.

Daniel needs to bring A-game

Missouri QB Chase Daniel came into the season as a Heisman frontrunner, but has struggled with interceptions. Daniel has thrown 13 picks on the season including two or more in three of his last four games.

Daniel will have to resist the temptation to force the ball into tight coverage against an opportunistic Sooner defense.

Oklahoma D not great, but good enough

Much has been made of the Oklahoma defense playing below the usual Bob Stoops standard. However, while the Sooners do give up yardage, they have a knack for forcing turnovers at key moments. This has been more than enough to win with the offense putting up points at a record pace.

Special teams advantage for Tigers

If there is one area where Missouri holds the advantage it’s on special teams. Dynamic returner Jeremy Maclin will have a chance to do serious damage against a Sooner coverage unit that has struggled mightily.

Missouri kicker Jeff Wolfert also holds an edge over his Oklahoma counterpart Jimmy Stevens

Arrowhead surface

Missouri may be able to garner some semblance of an advantage from the game being played at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium. Not only should Missouri have more fans in attendance, but it should also hold the advantage of having played on the same field just last week.

Chase Daniel told ESPN’s Chris Fowler that the Arrowhead grass surface was chewed up so badly that familiarity with the situation may give the Tigers an additional advantage Saturday.

With the Mizzou defense unlikely to slow down the Sooner attack, Daniel has to hope that the Arrowhead surface will have some effect in that regard.

What bettors need to know: SEC Championship Game
By MATT SEVERANCE

Game: Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

The line: The spread opened at 10 at most books with early money on Alabama dropping it, but it is back up to 10 with most sportsbooks. The total has risen about a half point to a point at the majority of books. Florida is 10-1 against the spread this season while the Crimson Tide are 9-3 ATS.

All-time series: The Tide lead 21-13, but these teams haven’t met since a 28-13 Florida win at home in 2006. This is the sixth time these teams have met in the SEC title game (UF has won three). It’s the 39th No. 1 vs. No. 2 game since the inception of the AP Poll in 1939 and the first in a conference title game. It's the sixth time overall that a one-vs-two game has matched conference foes, but the first time involving SEC teams. Overall, No. 1 is 23-14-1 in those games.

What’s at stake at the Georgia Dome: Alabama is guaranteed a spot in the BCS National Championship Game with a win. If Florida wins, it is expected to jump Texas (assuming Oklahoma wins the Big 12) and get a spot in the title game.

Gators banged up: The key injury in this game is Florida star receiver Percy Harvin, who is expected to be a game-time decision after suffering a sprained right ankle in last week’s win over Florida State.

Harvin has gotten “better and better” all week, according to Coach Urban Meyer, but hasn’t practiced. Harvin will try running on grass Friday afternoon, but a decision won’t be made until it is seen how his ankle responded to that and to another quick workout before game time. Meyer isn’t losing sleep over keeping Alabama guessing, although the Tide are planning as if Harvin will go. Meyer said his staff is creating two game plans - one with Harvin and one without.

Harvin reportedly is spending 10 hours a day aggressively rehabilitating his ankle. He also is in a walking boot all week. The junior has at least one touchdown in 14 consecutive games (the top active streak in the nation), leads the Gators in receiving (35 receptions for 595 yards) and is second behind Chris Rainey in rushing (61 carries for 538 yards). He plays receiver, running back and even quarterback. So, at worst, he could make a great decoy.

Incidentally, Harvin was in question for the 2006 SEC title game after sustaining a neck injury against FSU the week before and was carried off the field on a backboard. That week Harvin didn’t practice, but went out and won game MVP as UF crushed Arkansas.

There are other Gator injuries that could have an impact: Gators defensive tackle Brandon Antwine suffered a torn ACL last week and joins fellow D-lineman Matt Patchan on the sideline Saturday. And Rainey limped off the field Thursday with a groin injury that has been bothering him all year, but Meyer said it wouldn’t affect Rainey Saturday.

Tide offense vs. Gator defense: Alabama is old school, trying to control the clock with its running game. There's no spread offenses in Tuscaloosa. The Tide average 201.5 yards per game on the ground behind Glen Coffee (102.9 yards per game, nine touchdowns) and Mark Ingram (56.7, 11 TDs). They hold the ball for nearly 33 minutes per game, ranking in the Top 10 in the country.

When the Tide do pass, John Parker Wilson often looks to freshman WR Julio Jones. Wilson has nine touchdowns to only five interceptions and is averaging just 160 yards per game through the air.

The Gators rank 12th nationally against the run and 17th against the pass. No doubt stopping the run is Priority No. 1. Florida also makes big plays on defense, forcing 32 turnovers and ranking No. 1 in the country in turnover margin.

Gator offense vs. Tide defense: Believe it or not, it’s Florida, not Alabama, that leads the SEC in rushing. The Gators are the only team in Division I-A with four 500-yard rushers this season (Rainey 654, Harvin 538, Jeff Demps 529, Tim Tebow 507).

Led by mammoth run-stopper Terrence Cody, Alabama has the nation’s No. 3 overall defense (248.5 yards per game) and is No. 2 against the run (73.5 ypg). Look for UF’s Pouncey twins to double-team Cody often.

Tebow has led the UF offense to an incredible roll. The Gators have scored an average of 53.7 points per game while winning each of their last seven games by at least four touchdowns. Tebow has 17 passing and 10 rushing touchdowns in that span.

A few numbers: No team in the SEC has more first downs this season than the Gators. But no team in the SEC has given up fewer first downs than Alabama. Florida converts on 48.9 percent of its third downs, while Alabama stops opponents 75 percent of the time.

Since that home loss to Ole Miss, UF has won eight consecutive games by at least 28 points. But Bama has the experience of playing in close games this year, winning three by six points or fewer. Florida had one game this year decided by single digits and UF lost that one.

If special teams are the difference Saturday, watch out for Alabama return star Javier Arenas. He set school records this season for career punt return yardage (1,166 yards) and single-game punt returns yards (173). He has returned five punts for touchdowns in his career, including two this year against Tulane and Mississippi State.

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

(2) Florida (11-1, 10-1 ATS) vs. (1) Alabama (12-0, 9-3 ATS) (at Atlanta)

The much-anticipated SEC Championship game also serves as a national-championship elimination match, as second-ranked Florida meets top-ranked and unbeaten Alabama at the Georgia Dome.

Since suffering a stunning 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 27, the Gators have ripped off eight straight wins (7-0 ATS in lined games), scoring at least 38 points in all eight contests, including 42 or more seven times. Last week, they routed Florida State 45-15, easily covering as a 15½-point road favorite. Florida had 502 total yards (317 rushing) and gave up 242 (102 rushing), but electrifying RB/WR Percy Harvin went out in the first half with an ankle injury. Harvin (595 receiving yards, 538 rushing yards, 16 total TDs) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game.

In just the second season of the Nick Saban era, Alabama cruised to its first SEC West championship since 1999 and capped its first perfect regular season since 1994 with last Saturday’s 36-0 rout of archrival Auburn as a 14½-point home favorite. In snapping a six-game losing skid to Auburn, the Crimson Tide had significant advantages in total offense (412-170), rushing yards (234-57), first downs (21-8) and time of possession (35:37-24:23), and they won the turnover battle 3-0.

Not including a non-lined 70-19 rout of Division II The Citadel, Florida has outscored its seven other opponents 344-78 during its current winning streak. The Gators have also outgained eight of their last nine foes by at least 118 yards, and all 11 of their victories this year have come by at least 23 points.

Alabama won nine of its 12 games by double digits, allowing 21 points or fewer 11 times and holding seven foes to 10 points or less. The Tide also produced at least 20 points in all but one game, scoring 24 or more 10 times, including in each of their last six contests.

These schools last met in 2006, with Florida winning 28-13 but coming up just short as a 16½-point favorite, making Alabama 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, all as an underdog. That includes the Tide’s 34-7 rout of the Gators as a seven-point underdog in the 1999 SEC Championship game.

Alabama ranks third in the nation in scoring defense (11.5 ppg), third in total defense (248.5 ypg), tied for second in rushing defense (73.6 ypg) and first in rushing TDs allowed (3). Offensively, the Crimson Tide put up 32.1 points and 370.8 yards per game (201.5 rushing ypg). Senior QB John Parker Wilson has completed 58.6 percent of his passes for 1,909 yards with nine TDs and five INTs.

Florida averages 46.3 ppg, which rates third in the nation, and 449.4 total yards per game, including 237.1 rushing ypg (10th in the nation). The reigning Heisman Trophy winner has passed for 2,299 yards with 25 TDs and two INTs, and he’s also rushed for 507 yards and 12 scores. Defensively, Urban Meyer’s squad gives up just 12.3 ppg (4th) and 275.7 total ypg (7th), and they’ve allowed just 10 TD passes while notching 23 interceptions, the second highest total in the nation.

In addition to their 10-1 ATS run this year, the Gators are on pointspread streaks of 19-7 overall, 6-0 in SEC play and 14-3 against winning teams. Also, Florida is 5-0 SU and ATS away from home. Meanwhile, Alabama is on pointspread streaks of 5-0 overall (4-0 against the SEC) and 4-1 against winning teams, and the Tide are also 5-0 SU and ATS away from Tuscaloosa, including two outright upsets as an underdog.

Florida is riding over streaks of 19-7 overall (6-0 last six), 5-0 at a neutral site and 16-5 against winning teams. Conversely, the under is 6-1 in Alabama’s last seven overall (5-1 in SEC play).

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

(19) Missouri (9-3, 5-6 ATS) vs. (4) Oklahoma (11-1, 9-2 ATS) (at Kansas City, Mo.)

Oklahoma meets Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game for the second straight year, with the Sooners likely punching a ticket to the BCS Championship game if they can secure another win over the Tigers, this time at Arrowhead Stadium.

Oklahoma has gotten back into the national championship picture with six straight wins (5-1 ATS) since a 45-35 upset loss to Texas on Oct. 11. During their winning streak, the Sooners have averaged 59.5 ppg, including scoring 61 or more in each of their last four contests. Last week at No. 11 Oklahoma State, Oklahoma rolled to a 61-41 victory as a nine-point favorite, breaking open a 21-13 halftime lead by scoring 40 second-half points. The Sooners had a 557-452 advantage in total offense, with QB Sam Bradford going 30-for-44 for 370 yards, four TDs and no picks.

The Sooners earned the right to play in this game despite finishing in a three-way tie with Texas and Texas Tech atop the Big 12 South standings. Those three teams went 1-1 against each other, and the division champ was decided by the BCS standings, with Oklahoma narrowly edging Texas.

Missouri clinched the Big 12 North title two weeks ago, then went out and suffered a tough 40-37 last-second loss to Kansas as a 16-point favorite at Arrowhead Stadium. The Tigers fell behind 19-7 late in the second quarter, but rallied back and took a 37-33 lead with 1:50 to go, but allowed the Jayhawks to march down the field and complete a 26-yard game-winning TD pass on fourth down with just 27 seconds to play. Missouri, which had 478 total yards, had a four-game winning streak halted in the loss and fell to 2-5 ATS in its last seven.

The Sooners beat the Tigers twice last year, winning 41-31 at home but failing to cover as a 13½-point favorite, then rolling 38-17 as a three-point chalk in the Big 12 Championship game at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Oklahoma has won the last six meetings in this rivalry since 1999, going just 3-3 ATS. The underdog has cashed in six of the last eight meetings, including four of the last five.

Oklahoma, which has scored at least 35 points in every game this season, leads the nation in scoring offense (53.3 ppg) and ranks third in both total offense (556.7 ypg) and passing offense (354.3 ypg). The Sooners also rush for 202.4 ypg (4.7 per carry). Bradford has been phenomenal all year, completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 4,080 yards (third in the nation) with an NCAA-best 46 TDs and just six INTs.

The Tigers have scored more than 30 points in 11 of their 12 games, and they put up 45 points and 509.4 total yards per game, including 165.2 ypg on the ground (5.5 yards per carry). Senior QB Chase Daniel completes an NCAA-best 75.4 percent of his throws for 3,880 yards with 34 TDs and 13 INTs, but 12 of those picks have come in the last seven games.

Both teams are virtually even defensively, with Missouri allowing 24.7 points and 397.3 yards per game (119.7 rushing ypg) and Oklahoma surrendering 24.8 points and 359.5 yards per outing (109.8 rushing ypg). However, the Sooners have allowed 24 or more in six of their last seven contests, while the Tigers have held seven of 12 foes to 24 points or fewer.

Mizzou is in pointspread slumps of 2-5 overall (all in Big 12 play), 2-5 in December and 2-5 on grass, but the Tigers are on positive ATS streaks of 7-2 at neutral sties, 7-2 after a non-cover and 4-1 after a SU loss. Oklahoma is on ATS runs of 5-1 on grass, 4-0 in December, 4-0 against winning teams and 19-7 after a spread-cover.

For Oklahoma, the over is on runs of 11-1 overall, 8-0 in Big 12 play and 4-0 on grass, and the Tigers have topped the total in their last two games. However, the Sooners have stayed under in eight straight games in December, and the under is 3-1 in the last four series meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

(18) Boston College (9-3, 7-4 ATS) vs. Virginia Tech (8-4, 4-7 ATS) (at Tampa, Fla.)

Virginia Tech and Boston College clash for the second time in six weeks and for the second straight year in the ACC Championship Game, this time at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

The Eagles trailed Virginia Tech 10-0 early in the first quarter back on Oct. 18 at Boston College, but scored 21 unanswered points en route to a 28-23 victory as a three-point home favorite. Boston College finished with a 300-240 edge in total offense and a 22-14 advantage in first downs, but the Eagles committed five turnovers, including two interceptions that were returned for Va-Tech’s only two touchdowns.

Going back to their days in the Big East, Virginia Tech has won six of the last 10 meetings, but Boston College is 8-2 ATS during this stretch, and the Eagles were underdogs in the first nine of those games before being a home favorite in October. Going back to 2006, B.C. is 3-1 SU and ATS against the Hokies, but the loss came in last year’s ACC Championship Game in Jacksonville (30-16 as a five-point underdog). Finally, the SU winner has covered in each of the last six battles in this rivalry.

Following the win over the Hokies in October, Boston College lost consecutive games at North Carolina and at home to Clemson before closing the regular season on a 4-0 SU and ATS streak. The Eagles wrapped up the ACC’s Atlantic Division title with Saturday’s 28-21 over Maryland, barely cashing as a 6½-point home favorite. B.C. rushed for 175 yards and held the Terps to minus-4 net yards on the ground.

Virginia Tech split its final six games, but won the last two over Duke (14-3 on Nov. 22) and Virginia (17-14 last week) to clinch its second straight Coastal Division title and earn a chance to defend its ACC championship. However, the Hokies failed to cover in both wins, including as a seven-point favorite against Virginia, dropping to 2-5 ATS in its last seven games. Last Saturday, Va-Tech outscored the Cavaliers 10-0 in the second half and finished with a 392-249 total yardage edge.

Both teams finished tied for first in their respective divisions at 5-3, but the Eagles (4-4 ATS in the ACC) won the tiebreaker over Florida State and Virginia Tech (3-5 ATS in the ACC) held the tiebreaker over Georgia Tech.

The Eagles rate the edge on offense, averaging 26.7 points and 319.8 total yards per game (151.7 rushing ypg), while Virginia Tech nets 21.6 points and 301.7 yards per contest (169.8 rushing ypg). Defensively, both squads rank in the Top 16 nationally in points and yards allowed, with Boston College giving up 17.6 points and 276.6 yards per game (87.3 rushing ypg) and the Hokies yielding 17.9 points and 274.6 total yards per outing (112.2 rushing ypg).

Boston College first-string QB Chris Crane suffered a season-ending injury on Nov. 15 against Florida State, leaving the offense in the hands of redshirt freshman Domonique Davis, who has thrown for 288 yards with three TDs and no INTs on the season. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has switched between versatile sophomore Tyrod Taylor and senior drop-back passer Sean Glennon at quarterback, with the duo combining for 1,555 passing yards and just five TDs against 10 INTs.

In addition to cashing in its last four games, Boston College is 4-1 ATS in its last five against winning teams, but 1-6 ATS in its last seven after a spread-cover. As for the Hokies, they’re on ATS slides of 2-5 overall and 3-7 when playing on grass, but they’re 26-11 ATS in their last 37 conference games and 17-4 SU and ATS in their last 21 ACC contests on the highway (but 1-3 this year).

These teams had stayed under the total in four straight meetings before this year’s contest easily topped the 40-point total. Also, the over is 7-2 in Boston College’s last nine overall (6-1 in league play), but otherwise the under is on streaks of 12-5 for the Eagles on grass, 4-0 for Virginia Tech overall (all in conference) and 7-2 for Va-Tech after a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

East Carolina (8-4, 4-8 ATS) at Tulsa (10-2, 7-4 ATS)

Tulsa returns to the Conference USA title game for the third time in the last four years, this time battling East Carolina on its home field at Chapman Stadium.

The Golden Hurricane wrapped up the West Division title with last week’s 38-35 victory at Marshall, coming up way short as a 16-point favorite despite outgaining the Thundering Herd 516-437. Tulsa finished tied with Rice in the West Division at 7-1 (4-3 ATS), but won the tiebreaker based on a 63-28 rout of the Owls back on Oct. 4.

East Carolina closed the conference season on a 5-1 run, including last Friday’s 53-21 rout of UTEP, covering as a 6½-point home favorite to halt an 0-4 ATS slump. The Pirates finished 6-2 in Conference USA action (2-6 ATS), winning the East Division by two games over Memphis and Southern Miss.

This marks East Carolina’s first appearance in the Conference USA championship game. Meanwhile, Tulsa beat Central Florida 44-27 for the 2005 conference title, but last year when the same teams met, the Golden Hurricane got rolled by a near identical score, falling 44-25 as a 7½-point underdog.

These schools have faced off twice in Conference USA action, with Tulsa winning both games easily, 45-13 as a 9½-point home favorite in 2005 and 31-10 as a three-point road chalk in 2006. Going back to 1985, the Hurricane are 4-2 SU and ATS against East Carolina, with the favorite cashing in each of the last three meetings.

Tulsa fields one of the nation’s most prolific offenses, averaging 49.3 points, 578.9 total yards, 259.1 rushing yards and 319.8 passing yards per game, figures that rank second, first, seventh and sixth in the nation. At home, the Hurricane put up 60.5 points and 607.2 total yards per game. Senior QB David Johnson has been outstanding, completing 66.1 percent of his passes for 3,671 yards with 42 TDs and 13 INTs.

East Carolina hadn’t scored more than 30 points all year before last week’s 53-point effort at UTEP, and the Pirates have been limited to 20 or less five times in their last seven games. For the season, Skip Holtz’s team is putting up 23.5 points and 332 total yards per game, with QB Patrick Pickney (64.4 percent, 2,257 yards, 11 TDs, 7 INTs) having an up-and-down senior season.

The Golden Hurricane have struggled defensively, giving up 29.2 points and 401.8 yards per game (270.2 passing ypg), with five of the last seven opponents scoring at least 30 points against Tulsa. Meanwhile, East Carolina’s D surrenders just 20.5 points and 330 yards per outing, holding its last six foes to an average of 15.2 ppg.

East Carolina was one of the hottest spread-covering teams coming into this season, but the Pirates are now stuck in ATS slumps of 2-8 overall, 0-6 on the highway, 1-4 in C-USA play and 2-5 on artificial turf, but they’re still 19-7 ATS as an underdog since Holtz arrived in 2005. Meanwhile, Tulsa is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against winning teams, but the Hurricane have cashed in seven straight home games.

The under is 5-1 in East Carolina’s last six games overall (all in conference play), but otherwise the over is on runs of 4-1 for the Pirates in December, 4-1 for the Pirates against winning teams and 7-1-2 for Tulsa on artificial turf.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA

(5) USC (10-1, 6-4-1 ATS) at UCLA (4-7, 6-5 ATS)

USC heads up the road to Pasadena for its annual showdown with UCLA, needing a victory over the lowly Bruins to win the Pac-10 Championship and earn a Rose Bowl berth for the fifth time in six years and keep their slim BCS Championship Game hopes alive.

The Trojans crushed Notre Dame 38-3 last week for their eighth consecutive victory, seven of them by two touchdowns or more. USC barely covered as a 32-point home favorite, but is still just 4-3-1 ATS during its winning steak. QB Mark Sanchez went 22-for-31 for 267 yards, two TDs and two INTs as USC produced 449 yards of total offense, but it was the top-ranked Trojans defense that stole the show again, limiting the Irish to 91 total yards and just three first downs, the first of which came on the final play of the third quarter.

UCLA jumped out to a 3-0 lead at Arizona last week, but its offense completely fell apart from there, committing four turnovers, all of which were returned for touchdowns in a 34-9 loss as a 10-point road underdog. The Bruins actually had big edges of 303-121 in total offense (88-20 in rushing) and 17-10 in first downs, but couldn’t overcome the offensive miscues. UCLA has followed up a 4-0 ATS run by going 1-3 ATS in its last four.

USC had little trouble with the Bruins last year, winning 24-7, but failing to cover as a 19½-point home favorite despite a 437-168 advantage in total offense. The Trojans have won eight of the last nine meetings in this battle for Southern California bragging rights, but UCLA is 3-1 ATS the last four years, including a 13-9 upset as a 10½-point home underdog in the most recent battle at the Rose Bowl in 2006. Finally, the host has cashed in four of the last five series meetings.

The Trojans continue to lead the nation in scoring defense (7.8 ppg allowed), total defense (210.5 ypg), passing defense (124 ypg) and passing TDs allowed (3), and Pete Carroll’s D also is fifth nationally in rushing yards allowed (86.5 per game). Today, that stop unit goes up against a Bruins’ offense that is one of the worst in the nation, averaging just 18.6 points and 295 total yards per game (86.3 rushing ypg). Also, UCLA’s 20 interceptions thrown are tied for the fourth most in the country, while USC has picked off 16 passes.

USC enjoys a significant edge at quarterback, with Sanchez completing 65.4 percent of his passes for 2,525 yards with 28 TDs and nine INTs, while UCLA’s Kevin Craft connects on just 56.8 percent of his throws for 2,251 yards with more than twice as many INTs (19) as TDs (7).

The Trojans have not covered the spread in consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2, going 0-4 ATS in their last four after a spread-cover, and they’re also in ATS ruts of 2-5 in December 5-11 as a double-digit favorite and 5-11 in Pac-10 roadies. Meanwhile, UCLA actually enjoys a slew of positive pointspread streaks, including 20-7 at home, 15-6 in Pac-10 play, 18-8 on grass, 14-5 after an ATS setback, 19-7 after a SU defeat, 14-4 against winning teams and 4-1 in December.

For USC, the under is on stretches of 21-8-1 overall, 21-6-1 in Pac-10 play, 21-6-1 on grass and 7-1-1 against losing teams. UCLA also is on “under” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 8-2 at the Rose Bowl, 9-1-1 in conference play, 20-8 on grass, 4-0 after a SU loss and 7-3 in December. Lastly, the under is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-0 at UCLA).

ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA and UNDER