Navy (7-4, 5-5 ATS) vs. Army (3-8, 6-4 ATS) (at Philadelphia)
Navy shoots for its seventh straight victory over Army and sixth Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy in a row when the Midshipmen take on the Black Knights in this annual rivalry game in Philadelphia.
Navy, which has already qualified for a bowl, is gunning for its eighth win this season, and the Middies have gotten stronger as the season has gone on, winning six of their last eight (5-3 ATS). Most recently, they went on the road and blanked Northern Illinois 16-0 on Nov. 25, cashing as three-point ‘dogs.
Coach Ken Niumatalolo is uncertain who will start at QB for the Middies, either Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada or sophomore Ricky Dobbs. Dobbs got his first career start in the win over Northern Illinois and rushed for 122 yards and a TD. Navy leads the country with 292 yards rushing yards per game, but the Army defense hasn’t allowed more than 184 yards rushing to any team this season.
Army’s losing streak reached three with a 30-3 loss at Rutgers on Nov. 22 as 18-point underdogs. Despite that non-cover, the Black Knights have gotten the cash in six of their last eight games, and their rushing attack is ninth in the country at 254.2 yards per game.
Fullback Collin Mooney has run for 1,285 yards this season and needs 54 more yards to break the Army record for rushing yards in a season. The problem for the Black Knights has been holding onto the football, as they’ve fumbled 34 times this season, losing 23 of them, five more than any other team in the country.
The Middies are on a 5-1 ATS roll during their six-game winning streak against Army, and they’ve outscored the Black Nights 240-71 in this run. Last year, Navy rolled to 38-3 victory as 14-point favorites, outrushing Army 287-217 and forcing three fumbles, two of which the Middies recovered.
Navy is on several positive ATS streaks, including 9-3 at neutral sites, 7-1 in December, 12-5 after a week off and 45-21-1 against teams with a losing record. Army is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a straight-up loss, but otherwise the Knights are on ATS slides of 1-5 in December and 4-17 after a bye week.
The Middies are on “over” runs of 9-3 in neutral-site games, 6-2 in December and 7-1 coming off a spread-cover. On the flip side, Army has stayed under the total in six straight after a bye week and five of its last seven after a straight-up loss. Finally, the last two Army-Navy clashes were “unders.”
ATS ADVANTAGE: NAVY
(23) Pittsburgh (8-3, 5-5 ATS) at Connecticut (7-4, 4-6 ATS)
The Panthers wrap up their Big East season in East Hartford, Conn., against the Huskies in what is essentially a meaningless contest for two teams headed to bowl games.
Pitt eliminated West Virginia from Big East title contention – and helped Cincinnati win the league crown – with last week’s 19-15 win over the Mountaineers as a three-point home ‘dog. The Panthers are looking for their first nine-win season in 26 years, and they’ll need another big game from star RB LeSean McCoy, who rushed for 183 yards and two scores against West Virginia. McCoy has rushed for 140 yards or more six times this season and he’s got 35 TDs in two seasons in Pittsburgh. But it’s the Panthers defense that has played better of late, allowing 15 points or less in two of the last three games (2-1 ATS).
UConn has lost two of its last three, including a 17-13 setback at South Florida on Nov. 23, coming up just short as a three-point ‘dog. QB Tyler Lorenzen returned to the lineup after being sidelined him for four games with a broken foot, and he threw for 119 yards and a TD but suffered his first loss in seven starts this season. RB Donald Brown has been doing the damage for the Huskies lately, rushing for 727 yards and five TDs in their last six games.
Lorenzen threw for 174 yards and the defense forced six turnovers in UConn’s 34-14 win last year, with the Huskies easily cashing as 7½-point favorites. UConn has taken three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (SU and ATS), including a thrilling 46-45 double-overtime home victory in 2005 as a seven-point underdog.
Pitt is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a bye week, but the Panthers are on positive pointspread streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-2 on the road, 7-2 as an underdog and 5-1 against teams with a winning record. UConn is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 against teams with a winning record, but the Huskies are riding ATS runs of 7-2 at home, 9-4 in conference play, 11-5 on grass, 4-0 after a week off and 14-3 following an ATS setback.
The Panthers have topped the total in four of their last five on the road and 10 of their last 14 on grass. The Huskies have gone over the number in each of their last four home games, and the over has been the play in the last two meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
South Florida (7-4, 3-7 ATS) at West Virginia (7-4, 4-6 ATS)
A week after getting knocked out of contention for the Big East crown, West Virginia tries to regroup for the regular-season finale against South Florida in Morgantown, W.V.
The Bulls snapped a three-game losing streak on Nov. 23 with a 17-13 win over UConn as a three-point home favorite, despite being held to 247 total yards. QB Matt Grothe plays his final regular-season game for South Florida, and this year he’s thrown for 2,486 yards, 15 TDs and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 458 yards and three additional scores.
West Virginia lost all hope for a Big East title when it fell 19-15 at Pitt a week ago as a three-point favorite. The Mountaineers drove the ball inside the Pitt 30-yard-line inside the final 30 seconds but failed to get the ball in the end zone. All-everything QB Patrick White threw for 143 yards and rushed for 93 against the Panthers.
White this season has 1,369 passing yards, 879 rushing yards, 17 passing TDs, seven rushing TDs and six interceptions. He’s the school’s No. 2 all-time rusher with 4,385 yards, and he’s the NCAA’s all-time leader among QBs in rushing yardage.
South Florida has pulled off back-to-back upsets against the Mountaineers the last two seasons, winning 24-19 in Morgantown in 2006 as a 21-point ‘dog, then scoring a 21-13 home win last year as a seven-point pup. The Bulls gave up 437 yards a season ago, but took advantage of six turnovers, including one interception by White, who was knocked out of the contest in the second quarter.
The Bulls have had trouble getting the cash lately, going 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall, 1-4 ATS in their last five on the highway, 1-4 ATS in their last five December contests and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a winning record. The Mountaineers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a non-cover, but they are in mired in pointspread slumps of 3-7 on turf and 2-5 in Big East contests.
For South Florida, the over is 9-3 in its last 12 after a straight-up win and 5-2 in its last seven after a spread-cover. West Virginia has topped the total in 15 of its last 22 home games, four of its last five overall and five of its last seven in December. Conversely, in this budding rivalry, the under has been the play in each of the last three seasons.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA
Arizona State (5-6, 4-5 ATS) at Arizona (6-5 SU and ATS)
Even after suffering their longest losing streak since 1929, the Sun Devils can become bowl eligible with a win against in-state rival Arizona today in Tucson.
Arizona State was riding high in mid-September, ranked in the Top 25 and waiting on preseason No. 1 Georgia to arrive in Tempe. But an upset loss to UNLV the week before the Georgia contest sent the Sun Devils into what would become a six-game tailspin (2-4 ATS). But since a 27-25 loss at Oregon State on Nov. 1, ASU has won three in a row, outscoring the opposition 104-28. That includes last week’s 34-9 rout of UCLA as a 9½-point home favorite, with the Sun Devils’ defense equaling an NCAA record with four turnovers returned for touchdowns.
Senior QB Rudy Carpenter will try to become the first Arizona State quarterback in the 82-year history of this rivalry to go a perfect 4-0 against Arizona. In the previous three wins, Carpenter has gone 55-for-99 for 707 yards, five TDs and one interception.
Arizona has already qualified for a postseason game, despite losing three of its last four both SU and ATS. The Wildcats haven’t been on the gridiron since Nov. 22 when they blew a 17-16 lead in the final minute against Oregon State and lost 19-17 as 3½-point favorites. Mike Stoops’ squad relies on its rushing attack, with Nic Grigsby closing in on a 1,000-yard season and Keola Antolin rushing for 10 TDs.
Arizona State has won three straight (1-2 ATS) and eight of 10 (6-4 ATS) in this heated rivalry, including last year’s 20-17 home victory, coming up short as a seven-point favorite. The visitor is on a 10-3 ATS roll in this series, the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 (4-0 the last four years) and the Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tucson.
The Sun Devils are on ATS slides of 4-10 overall, 3-8 on grass, 2-7 against teams with a winning record, 0-4 in December contests and 0-4 after a spread-cover. Arizona is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 matchups against a team with a losing record, but the Wildcats are on positive spread streaks of 7-1 at home, 5-1 after a bye week, 9-3 on grass and 5-2 after a non-cover.
For ASU, the under is on stretches of 8-1 on the road, 7-3 in December, 5-1 on grass, 5-2 after a bye week and 11-5 after a straight-up win. Arizona has stayed under the total in 25 of its last 40 home games and 17 of its last 24 on grass. Lastly, the under is 6-1 in the last seven clashes between these two rivals (3-1 in Tucson).
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA STATE and UNDER
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