CFB Streaks & Notes!!
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Michigan at Ohio State
Wolverines sank to an all-time low last week losing 21-14 to Northwestern marking an eight defeat for the season and fifth consecutive at the Big House. Wolverines can’t do much to change its miserable season but a win over bitter rival O-State would salvaged some pride. That's a huge 'BUT' the 'Black And Blue have lost 6-of-7 meetings (2-5 ATS) including three straight (1-2 ATS) in Buckeye's back yard. O-State pegged 20.5 favorites enter 5-1 (4-2 ATS) in LH games but are 1-6 ATS overall it's last seven laying 15 or more points, 0-6 ATS their last 6 at home and 0-4 ATS last four hosting a conference foe.
Boise State Broncos at Nevada Wolf Pack
Broncos put up a perfect 10-0 (5-3-1 ATS) mark on the line when they visit Wolf Pack (6-4, 5-4 ATS) on Saturday. Still chasing a Bowl Championship Series berth along with it's 6th WAC title Boise State shouldn't be denied. Broncos have defeated Wolf Pack eight straight times winning by an average 33.9 PPG but a close call last year (69-67) has sportsbooks opening Broncos just 6 point road favorites this time around. Should have Bronco backers thinking $$$$ - The Horse is 9-3 at the betting window as favorites of 6 or less, 8-3 ATS last eleven vs WAC. Then again, the hungry Wolf has been a cash stuffing 10-5 ATS in it's own den, 12-6 ATS L18 getting 3.5 to 10 points, 7-2 ATS L9 playing a team with a winning record.
Washington at Washington St.
Nothing but pride at stake in this Rotten Apple Cup Rivalry. Since their last meeting Cougars are on a 1-10 skid (2-9 ATS), Huskies an eleven game slide losing the loot in all but two (2-9 ATS). Rivalry wise it's well to note the road team has cashed 7-10 including the last four.
Stanford at California November
Pointspread-wise this Bay Area Rivalry is dead even the past twelve years. On a more recent note Stanford won years meeting 20-13 as 14-point home dogs marking just their 2nd cover since '01 (2-5 ATS). Stanford enters 2-6 ATS last eight on the highway, Cal brings a perfect 6-0 ATS home win streak to the game
Where the action is: Saturday's key line moves
By MICHAEL PERRY
Game: Indiana at Purdue
It’s the battle to avoid Big Ten basement. Maybe that’s one reason sharps like
Indiana here: they actually have something to play for.
Weather conditions: 31°F Mostly Cloudy, Feels like 24°F, Chance Precipitation 10 percent, Wind: From SSW 8 mph
Where the line opened: Purdue -13
Where it stands now: Purdue -10.5
Where the wise action is: Indiana (mostly at +13 and little bit at +12)
Over/under movement: 49.5 to 51.5
Fifty-seven percent of our players are on Purdue and 78 percent are on over (mostly at 51 and 51 .5)
Game: Washington at Washington State
Both teams winless in Pac-10 play and I guess sharps think Washington State will give a better performance in an effort to avoid the Pac-10 cellar.
Weather conditions: 41°F, feels like 35°F. Chance of precipitation – 10 percent. Wind: from W 9 mph
Where the line opened: Washington -8 .5
Where it stands now: Washington -7
Where the wise action is: Washington St (+8 .5 and +8)
Over/under movement: 49 to 48 .5
Injury Report: Wash St QB Kevin Lupina is probable (concussion)
Seventy percent of our players are on the favorite. Bettors have little faith in either of these team's offenses because they’re backing the under at a 62-percent rate
Game: Army at Rutgers
Rutgers looks to become bowl eligible with a win at home against the Black Knights. An impressive showing against Army would help their cause to advance to a bowl game.
Weather conditions: 32°F, feels like 22°F. Chance precipitation zero percent. Wind: from NW 15 mph
Where the line opened: Rutgers -17
Where line stands now: Rutgers -19
Where the wise action is: Rutgers (pretty much all at -17)
Over/under movement: 43 .5 to 44
Scarlet Knights are getting 79 percent of the side action. Betting public also like the OVER (72 percent).
Game: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Should be a heck of game in the Queen City. After all, the winner emerges as the top dog in the Big East.
Weather conditions: 32°F, feels like 29°F. Chance precipitation 10 percent. Wind: From S 3 mph
Where the line opened: Cincy -4
Where it stands now: Cincy -6
Where the wise action is: Cincy (mostly at -4)
Over/under movement: Unchanged at 43 .5
Injury Report: Cincy QB Tony Pike is probable (sternum)
People are on the favorite on side (63 percent) mostly at -5 .5 and -6. But Pittsburgh is the popular choice (72 percent) for moneyline bets. Pretty much dead split on total.
Game: UNLV at San Diego St
Looks like this is an injury play for sharps. UNLV QB Omar Clayton is doubtful due to a knee injury.
Weather conditions: 63°F, perfect conditions
Where the line opened: UNLV -13
Where it stands now: UNLV -10 .5
Where the wise action is: San Diego St (mainly at +13 and +12 .5)
Over/under movement: 58 .5 to 58
Injury Report: In addition to Clayton, UNLV WR Phillip Payne (leads team with seven TDs) is questionable with concussion.
Sixty-two percent of our players are on the underdog Aztecs.
Game: UL Lafayette at Troy
Winner seizes control of the Sun Belt top spot and will likely be the only team from the conference to go BOWLing.
Weather conditions: 35°F, feels like 33°F. Chance precipitation zero percent. Wind: From E 3 mph.
Where the line opened: Troy -7 .5
Where it stands now: Troy -10
Where the wise action is: Troy (mostly at -8 and -8 .5)
Over/under movement: Unchanged at 65
After their strong showing against LSU last week, little surprise that the people are backing Troy at a 78-percent rate. Pretty much split on total.
Game: Michigan at Ohio St
Biggest pointspread in the history of this storied rivalry.
Weather conditions: 30°F, feels like: 22°F. Chance precipitation zero percent. Wind: From W 9 mph.
Where the line opened: Ohio St -19
Where it stands now: Ohio St -20 .5
Where the wise action is: Ohio St (brunt of sharp action at -19 and -19 .5)
Over/under movement: Remains at 44 .5
Injury Report: Michigan QB Steven Threet doubtful due to head injury. Michigan RB Brandon Minor is probable (shoulder).
People are backing the Buckeyes, but the gap is closing a bit. On Thursday, the Buckeyes were getting 65 percent of the side action. That number is now 60 percent. Our players are playing the over at a 69 percent rate.
College football Top 25 cheat sheet: Week 13
By MATT SEVERANCE
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners (-7)
Why Red Raiders cover: Texas Tech beat Oklahoma with a weaker team in Lubbock last year. Michael Crabtree had 12 catches for 154 yards in that game and has scored in 13 straight contests this season. Oklahoma is 1-4 in its past five home games versus teams with winning road records.
Why Sooners cover: If possible, they are even hotter than TTU. Oklahoma is averaging 57 points and 590 yards during a four-game winning streak. The Red Raiders are just 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings. Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach has never won in Norman.
Total (77): Both teams put up 60-plus points in their last game and are in the top three in scoring in the country.
BYU Cougars at Utah Utes (-7)
Why Cougars cover: They've won two in a row in this series. Ten of the last 11 meetings were decided by seven points or less. BYU’s offense, behind quarterback Max Hall, is the best Utah has seen this year. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings.
Why Utes cover: Their defense has allowed an average of just 11.4 points over the past five games. A BCS bowl rests on a victory in the Holy War. BYU is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games.
Total (53.5): The over is 9-2 in Utah’s 11 games.
Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions (-14)
Why Spartans cover: They've had two weeks to prepare. Spartans QB Brian Hoyer inexplicably is much better on the road. He's completed 52.8 percent of his passes for an average of 258.3 yards with eight touchdowns and one pick in four away games. PSU’s scoring is down to just 23 ppg in the past three games.
Why Nittany Lions cover: This could be Joe Paterno’s final home game, motivating his players to send the legendary coach off in style. The Nittany Lions have the No. 10 rush defense in the league and held Michigan State’s Javon Ringer to 48 yards last year. PSU is 4-1 ATS in the past five at home versus Sparty.
Total (48): The over is 9-2-1 in the past 12 meetings.
Boise State Broncos at Nevada Wolf Pack (+6)
Why Broncos cover: A win gets them the WAC title and keeps their BCS hopes alive. Running back Ian Johnson has rushed for 436 yards and six touchdowns in three games against Nevada. Boise State is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.
Why Wolf Pack cover: They are a rushing juggernaut, averaging a Division I-A best 325.0 yards on the ground. Nevada has scored at least 31 points in the past seven games. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has totaled 897 yards and nine touchdowns in his last three games.
Total (63): These two combined for a record 136 points during a quadruple-overtime tilt.
Michigan Wolverines at Ohio State Buckeyes (-20.5)
Why Wolverines cover: Pride. This is the largest spread in the history of this rivalry and UM can keep its hated rivals from a potential BCS bowl. Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in its past six home games. Only one Michigan coach ever has lost his first game against Ohio State.
Why Buckeyes cover: Michigan has lost six of seven, going 1-6 ATS in that stretch, and has one of the worst offenses in the country. Ohio State is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. Beanie Wells is rolling and has had big games against Michigan.
Total (44.5): The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
Air Force Falcons at TCU Horned Frogs (-19.5)
Why Falcons cover: They're unbeaten on the road this year. Air Force will test TCU’s defense with the No. 4 rush attack in the country. The Falcons beat TCU 20-17 last year and are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 conference games.
Why Horned Frogs cover: One-dimensional Air Force is a good rushing team, but TCU has no peer on run defense. It is allowing a nation-best 39.5 rushing yards per game and only two opponents have cracked the century mark. That unit also ranks third in scoring defense.
Total (45): The under is 9-2 in TCU’s past 11 games.
Mississippi Rebels at LSU Tigers (-3.5)
Why Rebels cover: Their past three games in Baton Rouge have been decided by just seven points. Ole Miss is a terror this year versus ranked teams, beating Florida and losing close games to Wake Forest and Alabama. The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in their past six in Baton Rouge.
Why Tigers cover: Is it me or is LSU always at home? This will be its fifth game in a row in Baton Rouge, but the Tigers have yet to cover during this stretch. LSU has won six in a row against Mississippi. The Tigers just had the biggest comeback in school history last week and may carry over that momentum.
Total (54.5): The over is 13-3 in LSU’s past 16 games.
Pittsburgh Panthers at Cincinnati Bearcats (-6)
Why Panthers cover: Cincy just can’t solve them. The Bearcats are 0-7 all-time against Pitt and UC has lost the three Big East meetings by an average of over 14 points. The Panthers had a week off to prepare and just ripped Louisville, who hung close with UC last week.
Why Bearcats cover: Yes, Pitt has owned them and is the only Big East team that UC has never beaten. But Cincinnati also snapped winless streaks against West Virginia and Louisville the past two weeks. Starting QB Tony Pike is expected to play after leaving the Louisville game with an injury.
Total (48.5): The under is 6-1 ATS in Cincy’s past seven home games.
Oregon State Beavers at Arizona Wildcats (-2.5)
Why Beavers cover: They have won eight of nine (8-1 ATS in that stretch) in this series and have the Rose Bowl carrot as motivation. Oregon State has covered in 14 of its past 17 games. The Beavers are averaging 39 points and 211 rushing yards in the past five games.
Why Wildcats cover: The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the past seven games in this series. Arizona is 7-0 ATS in its past seven home games. Other than a close loss to USC in Tucson, Arizona has scored more than 40 points in every home game this year.
Total (57): The under is 7-2-1 in the past 10 meetings.
Florida State Seminoles at Maryland Terrapins (+1)
Why Seminoles cover: They have beaten Maryland 16 of 18 all-time. Florida State leads the ACC in total offense and total defense. The Terps are 0-3 in night games this season. All the suspended FSU receivers from last week are expected back.
Why Terrapins cover: While FSU has owned this series, Maryland has won the past two at home. The Noles could be thin in the defensive backfield as strong safety Darius McClure is injured and safety Myron Rolle may not arrive in time from his Rhodes Scholarship interview. Maryland is 6-0 at home.
Total (46): The under is 7-1 in Maryland’s past eight ACC games
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats (+3)
Why Illini cover: They must win to become bowl eligible. Illini QB Juice Williams leads the Big Ten in passing yards (269.2) and total offense (326). Northwestern can’t run the ball since Tyrell Sutton got injured. The team’s RBs have totaled only 92 yards in the past three games.
Why Wildcats cover: They are 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. Northwestern has won four of the past five meetings. Illinois has lost three of four games this year and Williams leads the Big Ten in picks with 15. Northwestern is fifth in the nation for most improved scoring defense, allowing 20.2 points per game after surrendering 31 points per game in 2007.
Total (50.5): The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.
Boston College Eagles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-2)
Why Eagles cover: They're fifth in the nation in total defense, allowing 277.5 yards per game, and 14th in scoring defense, giving up an average of 16.9 points per game. They lead the country with 21 interceptions. If they win, they control their own destiny for the ACC Atlantic Division title. Wake is 1-4 ATS in its past five games.
Why Demon Deacons cover: Boston College has never won in Winston-Salem. Wake is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The Deacons have forced 29 turnovers this season. Star kicker Sam Swank may return this week.
Total (41.5): The under is 8-3 in BC’s past 11 road games.