Saturday NCAAF News and Notes

Inside the Steam - Week of Sept 30th
By Stan Sharp

Wisconsin @ Minnesota

Line opened Minnesota (Pick) and is now (-3)

Interesting that for the second week in a row Minnesota is involved in a major move. Stan's take is that Vegas and the Wise Guys just don't see eye to eye on this team. Last Week Minnesota took a lot of money as Northwestern went from -2 to Pick late and even -1 in a few spots. This week looks like the sharps are getting their money in early. Stan has found that in the long run the Wise Guys will be on the right side when they disagree that much with Vegas. Stan suggests you respect the Steam here and give Minnesota some early consideration.

Kansas St vs Iowa St

Line opened Iowa St (-1) and is now (-3)

This game took a huge move right away as it went from -1 to -3 on Iowa St. Two things to point out is the fact that this game is not being played at Iowa St but rather at Kansas City. Even with a site that favors the road team this game was bet hard for the Iowa St side. Stan's take is that the Wise Guys wanted to get in front of the public money which should come in on Iowa St off of back to back blowouts. Don't be surprised if you see the public push this line over 3 that the wise guys will come back in late in the week betting the dog and trying to get the middle with the magic number of 3. Sometime Steam isn't always Steam but a Smoke Screen for a later move.

LSU @ Georgia

Line opened Georgia (-1) and is now (-3)

Here's another game in which Stan feels that the Wise Guys are setting up a move for later in the week. They jumped all over Georgia at -1 and drove it to -3 knowing the public will want Georgia at home in a pick the winner situation. The public isn't impressed with LSU even though they are highly ranked. Stan looks for the money to continue to come in on Georgia as the public piggy backs the early move. However as the week nears Saturday Stan expects LSU to take the late money as the Wise Guys buy back with the Dog especially if it moves thru that key number of 3. Too many times people see moves and jump all over them thinking it's big steam when in reality the public is just helping the wise guys out by playing follow the leader which creates the buy back situation at a better price decreasing their risk by getting either a better price on the vig (taking +3 at even money) or having the number go to the magic 3.5. Stan's take away here is never blindly follow line moves thinking they are Steam. Understand fully what the move is really all about.

Games to Watch - Week 5
By Chris David

Saturday - LSU at Georgia (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)

Is fourth-ranked LSU (4-0 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) as good as its ranking? After watching the Tigers struggle in a 30-26 road win over Mississippi State last weekend, a lot of people are questioning Les Miles' club. LSU will have a chance to answer the critics over the next two weeks when it meets Georgia on the road this Saturday before hosting top-ranked Florida in Baton Rouge the following week. If the Tigers want to stay unbeaten, they better hope the 12th ranked offense (310 YPG) in the SEC steps up, especially the running game and third-down conversions as well. Georgia (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) almost got caught looking ahead last Saturday to this matchup and barely got past Arizona State, 20-17. QB Joe Cox wasn't sharp (17-of-31, 2 INTs) in the victory but he does have nine touchdowns on the season and has the ability to rack up crazy numbers with WR A.J. Green (25 catches, 428 yards, 4 TDs). VI Handicapper Brian Edwards pointed out, "Huge revenge game for LSU, which had a 52-spot hung on it by Georgia in Baton Rouge last year. Les Miles has only faced the Bulldogs twice, but came up short in each outing, by double digits too." Georgia is 9-1 in its last 10 games against the SEC West and the school is 20-5 versus since Mark Richt took over the head coaching duties. The Bulldogs have been made short favorites for this matchup, which isn't a good thing for LSU. Miles is 0-3 both SU and ATS as a road underdog in SEC play during his tenure at LSU.

Saturday - Oklahoma at Miami, Fl. (ABC-Regional, 8:00 p.m.)

Randy Shannon and the Hurricanes had a chance to put the Hurricanes back on the national map last week but the team was blasted 31-7 at Virginia Tech. Miami (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) mustered up just 209 yards of total offense and the often-hyped QB Jacory Harris (9-of-25, 150 yards) was horrendous. Even though the game was played in rain, Virginia Tech was able to grind out 272 yards on the ground and QB Tyrod Taylor made plays with his feet and arm when had too. Was Miami given too much credit for wins over FSU and G-Tech? It seems that way and the oddsmakers agree. Oklahoma (2-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) makes a trip to South Florida and Bob Stoops team has been listed as a seven-point 'chalk' even though QB Sam Bradford's status is uncertain. The Heisman Trophy winner was hurt in the opening loss to BYU (14-13), yet the Sooners have rallied without him, especially the defense. Since giving up 14 to the Cougars in Week 1, the unit hasn't allowed a single point. The Sooners have recorded 12 sacks and forced nine turnovers so far. If Bradford doesn't go, Landry Jones (9 TDs) has proven to be capable albeit against Idaho State and Tulsa. These two schools met in 2007 from Norman and Bradford (5 TDs) helped Oklahoma route Miami 51-13. Shannon only owns a 14-14 record at Miami, yet he's never been a home underdog. Total players might want to note that Miami has seen the 'over' go 3-0 in their last three games versus Big 12 opponents. One hope for Miami is Land Shark Stadium, which is where Oklahoma has lost two straight postseason affairs to Florida (24-14) and USC (55-19).

Saturday - USC at California (ABC-Regional, 8:00 p.m.)

Most folks expected Southern California (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) and California (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) to be undefeated at this point but both the Trojans and Golden Bears were both handed tough setbacks. USC lost to Washington 16-13 on Sat. 19 and Cal was embarrassed 42-3 at Oregon last Saturday. Despite its win at Ohio State (18-15) in Week 2, Southern California has been going through the motions and the offense is averaging 19.3 PPG in its last three games. The Trojans attack took a hit earlier this week when RB Stafon Johnson (neck) was lost for the season. QB Matt Barkley (675 yards, 3 TDs) and RB Joe McKnight (354 yards, 4 TDs) will be counted on heavily this week by coach Pete Carroll. What's amazing about USC is the defense lost eight starters and its still ranked sixth in total defense (227 YPG) and fifth in scoring (10 PPG). California could make those numbers go up but it better improve off the pathetic effort against Oregon. After taking a 3-0 lead a fumbled kickoff return, the team was outscored 42-0. RB Jahvid Best was held in check with 55 yards on the ground and QB Kevin Riley (12-of-31) couldn't hit a target all day. Is Cal that good or just another school that's a product of the preseason poll-hype? The Trojans opened as six-point road favorites but the number has been dropping. USC has won five straight and Carroll is 7-1 in his eight appearances against Cal. The lone loss came in 2003, when the Bears defeated the Trojans 34-31 in Berkeley. The 'under' has cashed in five straight and the total is hovering between 47 and 48.

Other Games to Watch

Saturday - South Florida at Syracuse (Gameplan, 12:00 p.m.)

South Florida caught Florida State in a letdown spot last week and pulled off a 17-7 upset in Tallahassee. And, the Bulls pulled it off with redshirt freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels, who took over for the injured Matt Grothe (knee). This Saturday, USF and its great defense (6.8 PPG) head to Syracuse for what looks like another possible letdown spot. The school isn't the best team in the Big East, but they are improved behind QB Greg Paulus. The offense has put up 35 points in back-to-back games, which hasn't been done since 2004. USF has won and covered four straight against the Syracuse, all by double digits too. However, the line (USF -6.5) seems like a trap.

Saturday - UCLA at Stanford (Gameplan, 3:30 p.m.)

We know we're only four weeks into the season but Rick Neuheisel and his Bruins are the only unbeaten team in the Pac 10. The real season for UCLA begins this week when they head to Palo Alto for a conference clash against Stanford (3-1). Jim Harbaugh and the Cardinal are already 2-0 in conference play and could easily be undefeated if it wasn't for a second-half collapse to Wake Forest (24-17) in Week 2. Lots of revenge here for Stanford with UCLA, who has captured five straight (4-1 ATS), including a 23-20 comeback win last year in Los Angeles.

Saturday - Arkansas at Texas A&M (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

Braggin' rights for the Big 12 and SEC are on the line when the Razorbacks and Aggies square off in College Station. Texas A&M has quietly opened up with a 3-0 record and we bet you didn't know that it leads the country in total offense (574 YPG). Arkansas has the ability to put some numbers on the scoreboard as well behind QB Ryan Mallett and RB Michael Smith. The oddsmakers put the total at 66, which could be hit early if the attacks start click on all cylinders.

Saturday - Auburn at Tennessee (ESPN, 7:45 p.m.)

If Lane Kiffin wants to get some respect and earn his first SEC win, then he's got a great shot Saturday when Tennessee hosts a red-hot Auburn (4-0) squad. The Volunteers' defense (237 YPG) is ranked eighth nationally but the Tigers' offense (526 YPG) is on a roll behind new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The Vols will have to pick their poison against either RB Ben Tate (412 yards) or QB Chris Todd (11 TDs). Auburn has won four in a row in this series, but the Vols have covered the last two.

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Primetime Showdowns
By Judd Hall

There may be a little bit of the luster taken off of ABC’s primetime showdowns this Saturday after some embarrassing defeats last weekend. Despite the losses, we’re going to be treated to a tilt with Pac-10 title implications. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes go out to prove that they’re on the way back to respectability by hosting Oklahoma.

Oklahoma at Miami – 8:00 p.m. EDT

The Sooners were supposed to be firmly ensconced in the national title picture by the time this game rolled around. Those plans were derailed immediately with a loss to BYU in the season opener, where Sam Bradford injured his right shoulder.

Oklahoma (2-1 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) has made due without its Heisman Trophy winner under center. Landry Jones has given fans a taste of the future and it looks bright as he’s connected on 60.5 percent of his passes for 673 yards and nine touchdowns.

Jones helped guide the Sooners to an impressive 45-0 victory over Tulsa as 18-point home favorites last weekend. He kept the offense moving all game long by converting 11 of their 17 third downs.

While the offense did a stellar job, Oklahoma’s defense came through with a fantastic effort against the Golden Hurricane. Tulsa had five “three-and-outs” last Saturday and only two trips to the red zone. The Sooners’ stopping unit clamped down on those drives with an interception and a fumble on a sack.

Miami (2-1 SU, ATS) had become the darlings of ESPN after surviving a late drive in Tallahassee and having its way at home against the Yellow Jackets. Those two wins helped push the Hurricanes into the Top 10 last week.

The biggest star for the media during this surge has been quarterback Jacory Harris. The sophomore signal caller completed 65 percent of his passes for 656 yards and five scores.

The ‘Canes fell back to Earth last Saturday by losing 31-7 in a monsoon against Virginia Tech as 2 ½-point road favorites. Harris connected on just nine of his 25 attempts for 150 yards and a pick. Miami couldn’t rely on it running game in bad weather as they gained just 59 yards on the ground. And the Hurricanes converted just one of their 11 third downs in Blacksburg.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants installed the Sooners as seven-point road favorites with the total coming in at 49. That line has since moved to 7 ½ with the same total.

Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED, mentioned that the line would go from 7 ½ to nine if Bradford was confirmed as the starter. Not hard to figure that logic since he threw five touchdown passes the last time he saw the Hurricanes in 2007.

Something that has surprised me about the Hurricanes in this spot is that they have never been home pups since Randy Shannon took over as head coach in 2007.

Miami has done well against Big XII squads recently with a 3-1 SU and ATS record in its last four games. The Hurricanes’ lone defeat came in Norman as 11-point road underdogs in 2007, 51-13.

The Sooners will be looking to exorcise some demons of their own as they’ve lost their last two games at Landshark Stadium – both national championship games. However, Oklahoma has won and covered in its last two games against ACC clubs.

Southern California at California – 8:00 p.m. EDT

A lot of folks thought these two teams would be undefeated by the time they faced one another this year. Yet surprising losses by both teams have turned what could have been a possible battle between national title contenders into a game where the loser is no longer relevant for the Pac-10 crown.

One of the things that we’ve seen from the Trojans this season is that their offense isn’t what it has been in the past. Last year, USC averaged 37.5 points per game to finish second in Pac-10 scoring. Through the first four games of 2009, the Trojans have scored 28.5 PPG.

So why is Southern California (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) struggling like they are on offense? Best spot to look is the man who is under center. Matt Barkley has looked good for a true freshman running the offense with a 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Yet he’s been nursing a shoulder injury since the win over Ohio State. And, truth be told, he’s being charged with managing the game, not winning them. It kind of makes you understand why Pete Carroll had a hissy fit when Mark Sanchez declared for the NFL Draft.

The Golden Bears looked like they might finally have a chance at crashing the BCS party this season. Yet California (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) went belly up last weekend as a six-point road “chalk” against the Ducks, 42-3.

Cal had no rhythm on offense against the Ducks, picking up 207 total yards. Jahvid Best had 412 yards and scored eight touchdowns in his first three games of the season. Last week against Oregon, Best gained 55 yards on 16 carries.

The betting shops have sided with the Trojans by making them 4 ½-point road favorites with 47 ½.

The Bears haven’t had much luck against USC since beating them in overtime 34-31 during the 2003 campaign. Since that win, the Trojans have won five straight contests, covering in three of them.

While you’d like to take Southern Cal to cover the spread, you have to know that they are 13-3 SU and 4-12 ATS in its last 16 October games.

California hasn’t helped bettors out too much when tabbed as a home pup in Pac-10 recently, as evidenced by a 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS record.

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Public Enemies - Week 5
By Kevin Rogers

The flavor of the week changes every seven days in college football, as the buzz surrounding Miami and Washington has faded after both teams lost decisively on the road. This week we'll break down a new batch of teams that are destined to fall or who will automatically bounce back following a loss (or so we think).

South Florida (-6½) at Syracuse (Noon EST)

The Bulls pulled off one of the biggest wins in school history by knocking off Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium last Saturday, 17-7. Freshman QB B.J. Daniels, a Tallahassee native, threw two touchdown passes in the victory, the first meeting between the schools, as well as Daniels' first career start.

The Orange has won two straight, granted the last victory was against FCS school Maine. The Greg Paulus experiment is going well for Syracuse, with the former Duke guard completing 68.4% of his passes through the first four games.

USF has dominated Syracuse in each of the four lifetime meetings, winning by an average of 26.7 points/game. All four times the Bulls have been favored, including three times by double-digits.

VI capper Joe Nelson says the page has turned for the Orange program, "Syracuse has displayed a solid defense this season and the schedule has been challenging with three Big Ten teams in non-conference play. The offense gained some confidence last week with a win over Maine, as this could be a serious upset opportunity while the public will likely be happy to lay the points going against one of the worst major conference programs of the last few years."

Penn State (-7) at Illinois (3:30 PM EST)

The Nittany Lions slipped up in the rain at home to Iowa last Saturday, 21-10. Penn State committed four turnovers, while not scoring a point the final three quarters. Joe Paterno's team hits the road for the first time this season, battling an Illinois squad who was shut out at Ohio State last week. The Illini was held to 170 yards in the loss, while QB Juice Williams threw two interceptions.

Nelson isn't high on what the Nittany Lions have accomplished so far, "Penn State had an inflated national ranking but has proven nothing with three weak non-conference wins and now a loss at home to Iowa. It was tough conditions for the Lions last week but this is a fairly inexperienced team going on the road for the first time favored against a desperate Illinois team that has pretty good talent and depth."

This is the first of two straight home games for Ron Zook's club, hosting Michigan State next week. The Illini hung around with the Nittany Lions last season in Happy Valley, despite a final score of 38-24. The game was tied at 14 after one quarter, while Illinois trailed by seven heading into the final quarter.

Georgia Tech (-6) at Mississippi State (7:30 PM EST)

The Bulldogs don't look like a bottom-feeder in the SEC anymore, after nearly pulling off a huge home upset against LSU last week. Unfortunately, Mississippi State couldn't convert from the goal-line in the final minute of a 30-26 loss. The Bulldogs are 1-2 in conference play, now starting a stretch of three games against opponents outside of the SEC.

The Yellow Jackets rebounded from the poor showing against Miami to beat up North Carolina, 24-7. The running game bounced back with 317 yards on the ground, while holding UNC to 154 yards of total offense.

Mississippi State held LSU's running game in check, as the Tigers rushed for just 30 yards on 31 carries. In fact, the Bulldogs have allowed just 63 yards rushing combined the last two weeks, if you include the 15-3 victory at Vanderbilt.

Nelson says that the Rambling Wreck is at their best with right amount of preparation. "Georgia Tech was mauled by that same LSU team in the bowl season last year, but Paul Johnson's teams have better success the less time opponents have to prepare for them. Notice that Miami had two weeks to prepare for the Yellow Jackets and shut them down completely, while in a normal week Georgia Tech has beaten Clemson and North Carolina, likely two of the better teams in the ACC," Nelson notes.

The Yellow Jackets beat down the Bulldogs in Atlanta last season, 38-7, compiling 500 yards offensively. Mississippi State turned the ball over four times and did gain over 400 yards, but allowed four Georgia Tech touchdowns on the ground.

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College football Top 25 cheat sheet: Week 5
By MATT SEVERANCE

A lot of Top 25 teams are off this week, including the top two, but we still get three matchups featuring two ranked teams - including the fourth straight ranked opponent for Miami. All news/injury updates as of Thursday.

Utah State at No. 21 BYU (-24, 65)

Don’t look for an Aggie upset, as they are 1-49 all time against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 and 0-39 on the road. USU has lost its past 13 games played on a day other than Saturday. But the Aggie offense is rolling, having totaled 83 points the past two weeks behind QB Diondre Borel.

Since 1987, these teams have played 12 times on a Friday night and BYU has won them all. The Cougars have has won nine straight in the series overall by an average of 18.8 points. Last year’s game was 34-14.

No. 3 Alabama at Kentucky (+15.5, 47)

It’s the Tide’s first true road game, so perhaps QB Greg McElroy will struggle to adjust to all the noise. He has looked great so far, as does the defense, which is second nationally. Alabama’s Nick Saban has never lost to UK in his coaching career.

This has been one of the more lopsided series in the SEC, with Alabama leading all-time 34-2-1. Interestingly, it’s just the third meeting on the Kentucky campus in the past 20 years, so maybe that helps the Cats stay close. They did last year, losing by three.

No. 4 LSU at No. 14 Georgia (-3, 51.5)

That Tiger defense that allowed 52 points in a loss to Georgia last year hasn’t looked good against the pass this year, but it has been opportunistic as LSU is plus-7 in turnover margin, good for fifth in the nation. Since 2002, LSU is 47-10 when ranked in the top 10.

The Dawgs have won the last three matchups with LSU and haven’t lost to the Tigers since the 2003 SEC Championship Game. Georgia, which is the only team Les Miles hasn’t beaten at LSU, hasn’t lost in this series between the hedges since 1986.

No. 6 Virginia Tech at Duke (+16.5, 47)

Last year’s 14-3 game with Duke might have been a bit of a fluke, as Tech turned the ball over five times in the first half. The Hokies have won eight in a row in this series and despite last year’s close call, they have outscored the Blue Devils 138-17 in the past four wins.

Duke should get the benefit of a natural letdown from the Hokies in the wake of last week’s big win over Miami. And the Blue Devils hung close last year, with possession and down just 7-3 with two minutes left in the game. A Hokie pick made the final score 14-3.

No. 7 Southern Cal at No. 19 California (+4.5, 47.5)

USC has won five in row over the Golden Bears and seven of the past eight. If Cal star Jahvid Best thought Oregon’s defense was good, he should know that the Trojans are allowing less than 60 yards rushing per game and opponents have scored just three touchdowns overall.

There’s a chance the Bears won’t have to deal with Pac-10 sack leader Nick Perry; the USC defensive end’s status is up in the air with a bruised knee. It’s hard to imagine Best having two bad games in a row – he had just 55 yards against Oregon last week.

No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 21 Miami (+7.5, 49.5)

Obviously the potential key to OU covering or winning could be the status of Sam Bradford. It’s still not clear if he will return, but coach Bob Stoops said this mid-week: "He has picked up his number of throws, the distance and his velocity each day." Stoops may not make the call until Saturday.

UM should get three key players back who sat out last week against Virginia Tech: WR Aldarius Johnson, defensive tackle Marcus Forston and defensive end Andrew Smith. And the Canes won’t play in a downpour like last week when they looked totally out of sorts.

No. 9 Ohio State at Indiana (+17.5, 47.5)

The Buckeye defense is rolling, having blanked Toledo and Illinois in back-to-back weeks for their first consecutive shutouts since 1996. Indiana has lost 14 straight against Ohio State by an average of 22.7 points.

This is not a typical Hoosier team, as its “pistol” offensive formation seems to be working. IU, behind QB Ben Chappell and RB Darius Willis, is averaging nearly 400 yards and gained 467 in a game it should have won at Michigan last week if not for red-zone failures.

Southern Methodist at No. 10 TCU (-28, 49.5)

SMU had two weeks to prepare for this game, and the Mustangs are among the nation’s leaders in picking off opposing passers with 11. This team should be 3-0 but blew a 24-7 lead against Washington State last time out.

TCU is one of the best home teams in the country, having won 32 of its past 36 at Amon G. Carter Stadium. And it has held its opponent to seven points or less in 12 of its last 21 home games. In the past 16 home games, TCU has outscored opponents by an average score of 38-9.

No. 11 Cincinnati at Miami of Ohio (+28.5, 57)

This might be a bit of a trap for Cincy, having to face a winless MAC team before a big nationally-televised game at South Florida 12 days later. Did you know this is the oldest non-conference rivalry in the country?

Frankly, the only way Miami covers is probably if Cincy isn’t fully focused. The Redhawks have lost nine games in a row and have been shut out twice in four games this year while committing 16 turnovers.

No. 13 Penn State at Illinois (+7, 46)

The Nittany Lions know their season and Big Ten hopes are on the line, as another loss probably eliminates them from a BCS bowl. RB Evan Royster should have a field day against an Illinois defense that allowed 236 yards on the ground to Ohio State last week.

The Illini might get PSU without star linebacker Sean Lee, who sat out last week’s loss to Iowa and is very questionable for this week with a sprained knee. Illinois must get the ball more to Arrelious Benn, who has only five catches.

No. 15 Houston at UTEP (+14.5, 68.5)

How on earth can a Miners’ defense that allowed 64 points to Texas last week stop a Houston offense that is second in the nation in total yards, third in passing yards and eighth in scoring?

It’s the C-USA opener for UTEP and the Miners have averaged 41 points per game in conference openers during the Mike Price era and have never scored fewer than 21 points in one. So maybe the over is the best bet here.

Arkansas State at No. 17 Iowa (-21.5, 46)

ASU will try and control the ball to stay close. The Red Wolves rush for 190.3 yards per game and have scored 11 of their 13 TDs on the ground. Reggie Arnold averages 6.3 yards per carry.

This is the absolute definition of a trap game for Iowa, as the Hawkeyes come off that huge win at Penn State and now face an out-of-conference lightweight before playing Michigan next week. Plus, Arkansas State has been outscored 121-22 in its last four road games against Top 25 teams.

No. 18 Mississippi at Vanderbilt (+9.5, 45)

How will Ole Miss respond to that loss in South Carolina last time out and with a crucial game against Alabama next week? Jevan Snead is completing less than 50 percent of his passes and was picked four times by Vandy last year.

Vandy upset set Ole Miss in Oxford last year and has won the past two at home in this series. The Commodores will get CB Jamie Graham back after he sat out last week with a concussion, but second-leading rusher Zac Stacy is likely out.

No. 20 Michigan at Michigan State (-3, 56.5)

It’s the first road game of the year for Michigan, so that could be a challenge for freshman QB Tate Forcier. He has a sore shoulder but will play Saturday. The Wolverines have won the past three meetings in East Lansing.

It’s a crucial game for 1-3 Michigan State, which got a load of confidence with last year’s 35-21 win in Ann Arbor. The Spartans’ passing attack (320.8 ypg) has been their strength, and Michigan has had its issues against the pass, allowing nearly 245 yards per game.

Washington State at No. 25 Oregon (-33, 54.5)

Wazzu’s passing offense has been one of the worst in the country, but the Cougars are turning to true freshman QB Jeff Tuel this week for his first start in hopes of a spark. He was 14-of-22 for 130 yards and one interception with 34 yards rushing last week vs. USC.

In theory, this game shouldn’t be close. But the Ducks figure to have a letdown after crushing Cal. Plus, Oregon lost top cornerback Walter Thurmond for the season in that win over the Bears. The Wazzu pass offense needs all the help it can get.

CFB Streaks & Notes
By Sportspic

Louisiana State at Georgia

LSU avoided a loss to a pack of Bulldogs last week scratching out a 30-26 win over Mississippi State but got chewed up at the betting window as -12 point favorites Listless on offense managing 263 total yards and just 30 on the ground Tigers have a huge challenge against the next group of DAWGS who held Sun Devils to just 3.4 yards per play. With the non-cover in the books Tigers are now a cash draining 2-14-2 ATS last eighteen in conference play, 6-16-1 the last twenty-three on the field. Meanwhile, Georgia on QB Joe Cox's 17-of-31 passing for 262 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT performance escaped with a last second 20-17 victory over Arizona State. As mentioned earlier DAWGS 'D' performed an outstanding job holding Sun Devils to 87 rushing, 116 passing yards it's lowest level in four games. Like LSU, Bulldogs failed backers at the betting window this past weekend moving the mark to 5-10-1 ATS it's last sixteen games. Bulldogs 2-6-2 ATS in SEC action the past two campaigns whipped Tigers 52-38 on this turf last season marking three consecutive victories.

Penn State at Illinois

The Nittany Lions are going to be in a nasty mood Saturday after they were embarrassed 21-10 last week by Iowa Hawkeyes. Fighting Illini look to be the perfect opponent for the bounce back. Illini off a 30-0 thrashing at the hands of Ohio State have now lost four of it's last five conference games by double digits and enter the contest having lost 8-of-10 to the Nittany Lions including last season's 38-24 loss in Beaver Stadium. Spread-wise, Illini has cashed four of last five meetings however Ron Zook's squad's lackluster performance on both sides of the ball puts them in dangerous territory. Illini have not faired well as underdogs of 8 or less points going 2-9 the past eleven situations while Nittany Lions enter 11-5 ATS after three or more consecutive losses against the number.

Road Warrior
By Sportspic

The ninth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes posting it's second consecutive shutout blanking Illinois 30-0 last weekend enters it's first Big-Ten road battle in Bloomington against the Hoosiers. Great on both sides of the ball racking up 28.5 points on 367.0 passing, 181.0 rushing yards per game while holding opponents to just 11.2 PPG on 258.8 total yards Jim Tressel's troops look primed to extend it's 16 game conference road record. Switching to Hoosiers, they almost pulled an upset in their BIG-Ten opener at Michigan but suffered a heartbreaking 36-33 loss as 18-point dogs. Hoosiers balanced offense has notched 28.2 PPG on 239 passing, 159.2 rushing yards per contests. Defensively, the squad has been chewed up for 22.2 PPG on 329.8 total yards. Indiana is no pushover but OSU is playing so well right now. Buckeyes controlling the trenches along with a ground game that has really taken off the last two weeks rushing for nearly 500 yards handle Indiana for the 10th straight time since '95 (7-3 ATS) including 5-0 (4-1 ATS) as visitor in the series. Consider laying the lumber (-17) OSU is a profitable 7-1 against-the-number last eight as road favorite in conference play, 4-1 ATS last five overall laying 10 to 20 points while Indiana enters 3-6 ATS last nine vs conference a foes, 1-5 ATS last six as double digit home dogs.

Saturday's games

Top games

Saturday's games

Top games

South Florida had biggest win in program history last week, now visits Syracuse with frosh QB Daniels making second career start. USF is 4-0 vs Syracuse, winning by average score of 35-8 (4-0 vs spread). Orange are 3-0 vs spread in lined games, splitting pair of 3-point decisions vs a pair of Big 11 teams (Minnesota/Northwestern). USF played three stiffs before the FSU win.

Wisconsin is 12-2 in last 14 games vs Minnesota, winning last five by an average score of 40-25; Badgers covered seven of last ten in series, scored 31+ in last nine series games. Gophers are 3-5 in last eight tries as home favorite, Badgers are 1-5 as road dog under Bielema- this is first start on road for jr QB Tolzien. Wisconsin is 4-0 but allowed 30+ points last two games against I-A opponents.

Home side won four of last five NC State-Wake Forest games; Wolfpack is 1-5 in last six visits to Wake, losing last three by 14-8-20 pts. Wake is 11-8 vs spread in last 19 home games. State had 208 rushing yards, 322 passing in last weeks' 38-31 win over Pitt- they're 7-3 vs spread on road under O'Brien, but this is their first road game this year. Deacons lost a fumble on 4-yard line in OT at BC last week, costing them a 27-24 loss.

Visitor won all four Florida State-Boston College games; Seminoles won last two visits here, 28-17/27-17. FSU is erratic as hell, losing at home to South Florida last week, after pounding BYU in Provo the week before. Eagles survived OT vs Wake Forest last week; they converted just 6 of last 26 on 3rd down. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in ACC league tilts.

Home side won six of last eight Vanderbilt-Ole Miss games; Rebels lost three of last four meetings after winning seven of previous eight- they've lost last two trips to Nashville-- last time they won at Vandy by more than five points was '98. Ole Miss is 3-9-1 vs spread as road favorite since 2001/ Vandy is 7-10 vs spread in last 17 games as home underdog. Underdogs covered seven of first ten SEC league games.

Washington lost last three games vs Notre Dame 33-7/36-17/38-3; they gave up 571 rushing yards last two weeks, losing 34-14 at Stanford last week. Huskies are 1-8 vs spread in last nine games as road dog, Irish are just getting by, winning last two games by FG each- their last three tilts were decided by total of 10 points. ND is 8-14 as home fave with Weis.

Georgia is playing fifth straight BCS foe; they're 3-1 despite being -9 in turnovers, running ball for just 112.5 ypg. Dawgs won last three games vs LSU by average score of 43-23- they're 1-6 vs spread last seven tries as home favorite. Tigers is 4-0, but had to stop Miss State twice inside 1-yard line in last minute to seal 30-26 win- they're 0-4 vs spread in last four regular season games as an underdog.

Navy won last six games vs Air Force, even though they were underdog in five of them; only one of the wins was by more than 7 points. Falcons lost last three visits here by 11-3-3 points- dogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five games played here. Air Force scored two defensive TDs in win over San Diego State last week (26-14); they had two punts blocked for TDs in LYs 33-27 home loss to the Middies.

First road start for freshman QB Jones; Oklahoma hasn't given up point in two games since BYU loss, but they've only played Idaho St, Tulsa. Sooners covered last five tries as road favorite. Miami got waxed in the rain in Blacksburg last week; they're 2-1 as home dog this decade. 'canes scored 71 points in wins vs Florida St., Ga Tech, but Harris completed just 9-25 last week. Sooners covered eight of last 11 outside of Big 12.

Michigan won six of last seven vs Michigan State, winning last three in East Lansing by 4-7-3 points. Wolverines are 4-0 but this is first start on road for frosh QB Forcier, who has achy shoulder. Michigan was 1-3 as road dog LY after covering seven of previous nine as AU. Spartans lost last three games by 2-3-8 points- they're 13-25-1 in last 39 games as HF.

UCLA won last five games vs Stanford, taking last two played here by 30-27/45-17 scores; Bruins won LY's game 23-20, scoring with 0:10 left in game. Cardinal won both '09 home games, scoring 42-23 points; they ran two kicks and a punt back for TDs in last two weeks. UCLA had an extra week to prepare after 3-0 start where they allowed 12.7 ppg, with eight INTs. Bruins are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 games as a road dog.

Texas A&M is quietly off to 3-0 start, scoring 45 ppg with a balanced attack, running ball for 246.7 ypg, passing for 330.3- they're moving up here in competition vs Arkansas team that gave up 87 points in losing its first two SEC games (52-41/35-7). Hogs covered three of their last 11 non-SEC contests. SEC teams are 6-2 vs spread in non-league games on road. Big 12 teams are 17-15 against the spread in non-league games.

Auburn won last four games vs Tennessee, surviving 14-12 struggle LY, holding Vols to 8-24/67 passing. Suddenly explosive Tigers scored 45.3 ppg in winning first four games under Chizik, but this is their first road game. 2-2 Vols passed for exactly 93 yards in both losses, 277-222 in its wins. Auburn is +7 in turnovers, but they did allow 30 points each in last two wins (41-30 vs West Va, 54-30 vs Ball State).

USC won last five games vs Cal Bears, taking last two in Berkeley by 35-10/24-17 scores. Tough week for USC, with RB Johnson crushing his larynx in accident in weight room; he will survive, not sure if he'll play again. Trojans defend well, allowing 10 ppg in 3-1 start, but they've lost six fumbles, which has hurt. Cal got crushed 42-3 in Eugene last week, giving up 236 yards on ground, completing 13-36 passes on sunny day.

Other games

-- East Carolina is 3-9 as road favorite since 2002; they won three of last four games vs Marshall, winning by 13-3-19 points. Herd is 9-2-1 as a home underdog this decade.

-- Northwestern lost its last two games, allowing 37-35 points; they've turned ball over three times in each of last three games. Purdue is 6-4 in last ten games as home favorite.

-- Underdog covered last five Clemson-Maryland games; Tigers won last two visits here, 28-24/30-17. Terps are 0-3 vs D-I teams, allowing 52-32 34 points. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in ACC games so far.

-- Home team seven of last nine Virginia-North Carolina games; last two played here were both decided by two points. UNC is 9-17 as home fave this decade. Cavaliers are 0-3 in '09, losing by 12-16-3 points.

-- Central Michigan won last two games vs Buffalo, 55-28/27-25; CMU won its last two games vs D-I foes, scoring 29-48 points- they're 3-6-1 as road favorite since '06. Buffalo is 14-18 as home dog since 2001.

-- Ball State was 12-0 at one point LY; they're 0-4 now, including loss to I-AA New Hampshire. Cardinals are 7-3 in last 10 games as a home dog. Toledo allowed 31+ points in all four games (2-2) this season.

-- Kentucky was down 31-0 in first quarter at home to Florida last week, now Alabama comes to town; Tide won its first four games by average score of 40-13, but this is first true road start for QB McElroy.

-- Miami O lost last three games to Cincinnati by 25-point average; Red Hawks are 0-4 this year, losing by average score of 44-11. Big East road teams are 8-4 vs spread this season in non-league games.

-- Temple beat Eastern Michigan 55-52 LY in game where EMU threw 76 passes. Eagles are 4-7-1 in last 12 tries as home dog. Temple ran kick back for TD and had a defensive TD in their last game, a 37-13 win.

-- Army covered three of last four tries as home favorite; they blocked two Tulane kicks in 44-13 road win LY. Conference USA teams are 3-8 vs spread as a non-conference road underdog so far this season.

-- Virginia Tech comes off big wins vs Nebraska/Miami, tries to avoid a letdown vs Duke team they've beaten eight times in row by average of 23 points. Blue Devils are 4-15 as home dog since 2005.

-- Mississippi State was stopped on 1-yard line in last minute vs LSU last week, now has to stop Georgia Tech option attack that ran ball for 317 yards vs UNC last week, but lost its only road game, at Miami.

-- First road game for Penn State team that was 4-1 as road favorite LY; Lions lost to Iowa again last week, are 9-7 vs spread after a loss. Illinois is 5-5 as home dog under Zook- they lost 30-0 to Ohio St. last week.

-- Last three Northern Illinois-Western Michigan games were decided by four or less points; NIU is now 1-10 as home favorite after losing 34-31 to Idaho as a 15.5-point home favorite last week.

-- Bowling Green lost last three games, getting crushed 49-14 at home by Boise last week. Falcons are 5-13 vs spread in last 18 games as favorite at home. Ohio is 8-5-1 in last 14 games as road underdog.

-- Nevada won last four games vs UNLV by average score of 32-16, but Wolf Pack is 0-3, allowing 35-35-31 points. Last three UNLV games were decided by combined total of six points.

-- Idaho was underdog in first four games, is still 3-1; Vandals are 4-2 in last six games as home dog. Colorado State is also 3-1, with +7 turnover ratio; since 2003, Rams are 1-8 vs spread as a road favorite.

-- Iowa State had 462 passing yards in 38-30 loss at Kansas State; ISU is 3-1, scoring 34-31 points in winning its last two games. K-State is 0-2 vs D-I teams, scoring total of 24 points (7-31 on 3rd down).

-- Home team won four of last five Oregon St-Arizona St games; Beavers lost last two visits here, 27-14/44-32. Sun Devils lost tough 20-17 game at Georgia last week- they're +10 in turnovers, 8-4 as home favorites.

-- Oregon beat Washington State 53-7/63-14 last two years; Ducks beat Cal 42-3 at home last week- they're 16-7 in last 23 games as home fave. Since 2004, Washington State is 8-13 as a road underdog.

-- Baylor lost star QB Griffin (ACL) last week; his backup is banged up too; Bears covered four of last five as home favorite. Kent State is 1-2 vs D-I foes, losing 34-7 at Boston College (+21), 34-14 to Iowa St (+3).

-- Central Florida is 4-0 vs Memphis, winning last two played here by 38-17/56-20 scores. All four UCF games this year were decided by seven or less points- they're 6-4-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a home fave.

-- New Mexico is awful, losing only road game 41-6 at A&M; Lobos are 22-15-1 as road dog this decade. Texas Tech is off pair of tough losses at Texas, Houston- they're 25-16-1 as home favorite this decade.

-- Indiana got hosed in 36-33 loss at Michigan last week; they outgained Big Blue 467-372, had 197 rushing yards, so they're not bad. Ohio State won 38-0/30-0 in two games since losing at home to USC.

-- Tulsa won four of last five games vs Rice, crushing Owls LY, 63-28; faves are 3-0 vs spread in Tulsa's lined tilts this year. Rice is 0-4, giving up 44 ppg in losses by 20-45-17-19 points (1-3 vs spread).

-- SMU lost last two visits local rival TCU by 44-0/21-7 scores. Horned Frogs had huge win for league at Clemson last week, have tough trip to Air Force next. Mustangs are 12-8-1 in last 21 games as a road dog.

-- San Diego State is 0-3 vs D-I opponents, all on road; they're minus-8 in turnovers last two games. Aztecs are 8-3 last 11 games as home fave. New Mexico State beat rival Lobos last week; they're 10-17 as road dog.

-- Houston had huge win over Texas Tech last week; three of their last four games with UTEP were decided by five or less points. Cougars are 4-8 in last 12 games as AF. Miners' last two losses were 34-7/64-7.

-- Iowa had huge win at Penn State last week, has Michigan on deck, so major trap game for team that allowed 30 points last three games- they're 5-9 in last 14 games as HF. Sun Belt road dogs are 6-10 this season.

-- Long road trip for Wyoming team that is 3-11 in last 14 games as road dog. Florida Atlantic is 0-3 this year, allowing 49-38-27 points. Sun Belt home teams are 5-1 vs spread in non-league games.

-- Florida Int'l covered five of last seven tries as road dog; they lost four of last five vs UL-Monroe, losing at ULM by 8-14 points, with a win in between. Warhawks covered just three of last 13 as home favorite.

Top 25 College Football Match Ups
By: Freddy Willis

I will make an effort to give my sports betting advice or a quick over view of the games you want to know about. The Top 25 match ups each week is where most of the eyes turn. Last week I went 4-2 on premium plays last Saturday making me 8-3 the last two Saturday's. Unfortunately the two losses we took were our two highest plays as we are now 4-2 on the year for NCAAF POD's! We still took a profit on the day and are back for this weekend with some of the biggest plays of the year! This weekend there will be just three Top 25 match ups between ranked foes including our game of the week with a Miami team facing Oklahoma.

**GAME OF THE WEEK** #8 Oklahoma @ #17 Miami (Oklahoma -7)

I will be staying far away from this game as Oklahoma just looks too good after their terrible showing at Virginia Tech which we won on the Hokies! Oklahoma has looked solid with their new QB (for now) at the helm, but this is a different type of test. We'll see if Oklahoma can generate the same type of pressure that the Hokies did on Miami and Harris and what Harris does this time to over come it when he is at home.

#22 Michigan @ Michigan State (Michigan State -2.5)

This match up opened with Michigan State +1, and many thought it was because of Tate Forcier's impressionability to play on Saturday. As the week went on and looked more and more likely that he will play yet the line continued to go in Michigan State's way.

#6 Virginia Tech @ Duke (Vtech -16.5)

Virginia Tech was one of my favorite plays last weekend and they cashed easily as +3 point dog. This week they look to build off their shocking (to some) victory over Miami. They will face an ACC opponent in Duke and should have little if any trouble. Duke's rush defense is ranked 80th, and they may be in trouble as the Hokies ran all over Miami for 272 yards last week.

#13 Iowa vs. Arkansas State (Iowa -20.5)

Iowa as 10 point dogs defeated Penn State on the road. We were there and on Iowa on Penn State. You can read our write up on that game in the released picks thread right here. Iowa now takes on the non-conference schedule again when they host Arkansas State. These two have never met, but the last four road games against Top 25 teams have not gone well for Arkansas State, they were out scored 121-12.

#3 Alabama @ Kentucky (Alabama -17)

After shutting down a high-flying Arkansas offense, Alabama will try to shut down Kentucky which ranks 87th in the nation. Alabama has won three straight over Kentucky last year when they won 17-14.

#10 Cincinnati @ Miami (OH) (Cincinnati -27)

Cincinnati is now ranked tenth in the nation under their star QB Tony Pike. This is Cincinnati's highest rank in school history and they have won the past three meetings by 116-40 margin.

#15 Penn State at Illinois (Penn State -6.5)

Penn State and Illinois will look to rebound after disappointing losses. Penn State we already mentioned fell at home to Iowa as 10 point favorites. Penn State should be able to move the ball against an Illinois defense. Penn State is 13-3 career against Illinois and 10-2 since joining the Big Ten.

#4 LSU @ #18 Georgia (Georgia -2.5)

LSU looked bad when they visited Missippi State and were very fortunate to escape wtih the 30-26 victory, because Miss. State could not punch it in at the end of the game. This will be LSU's most challenging game this year and the Tigers will look to have revenge on Georgia who beat them at home last year.

#9 Ohio State @ Indiana (Ohio State -16)

Ohio State has bounced back very nicely after losing to USC in week 2 with wins over Toledo and Illinois with a combined score of 68-0. Indiana might have a hard time scoring as they have lost 14 straight games to Ohio State by an average of 22.7 points.

#21 Mississippi @ Vanderbilt (Miss -13.5)

Snead had a hard time when he visited South Carolina and I was all over South Carolina in that game too! You can read the write up of that game right here. Now Ole Miss finds themselves from #4 to #21. Don't take Vanderbilt lightly they too have a solid defense and kept things close against LSU and Miss State.

#25 Georgia Tech @ Mississippi State (Georgia Tech -4.5)

Georgia Tech defeated Miss State a year ago when they ran all over them and won the game 38-7. Tech coming off an impressive win against North Carolina 24-7 got back to running the ball. Will Miss State have the answers one year later to the triple option Tech runs with Johnathan Dwyer and Nesbit? Mississippi State had every opportunity to beat LSU last weekend at home but it was 3 interceptions due to the weather and their inability to punch it in the end zone at the end of the game that cost them.

#11 TCU @ SMU (TCU -27.5)

This will be TCU's final non-conference tuneup before they break in against the Mountain West. The Horned Frongs have won 8 of 9 from the mustangs by a modest average of 7.8 points per game. This game features two QB's at the top of some interesting statistical categories. QB of TCU Dalton is 5th in completion %, while SMU QB, Mitchell is 4th in passing yards per game, 27.5 may just be too many.

#7 USC @ #24 California (USC -7)

California won't get much help here on Saturday after last week's embarrassing loss to Oregon on the road as favorites. Oregon crushed Cal 42-3, making this game less interesting. Nonetheless they play the game anyway and I fear Cal even though they have a lot to play for just do not match up well against USC. It's so hard to score on USC unless you force turnovers. They are giving up 1.7 ypc on the ground this year which is Cal's strength. If Cal has to turn to their QB to win the game that could be trouble as USC is the best in the nation at getting to the QB. I still have Cal as a slight lean as a home dog here in this situation, but it's a no play for me.

#5 Boise State @ UC Davis (NL)

Undefeated Boise State takes a break from the FBS schedule, what else is new? I'm really tired of this team that does not take any risks in its schedule getting all this attention. Just look at what Houston has done taking down Oklahoma State on the road and Texas Tech at home and now they'll be facing an SEC opponent in Miss. State. Boise State did face Oregon at home to open the year, but let's see what they do against some of the bigger opponents?

#12 Houston @ UTEP (Houston -16)

I won't lie I had Text Tech in last week's free pick over Houston and it looked as good as gold late in the 4th quarter with Texas Tech 1st and goal up 28-23. Tech could not punch it in and went for the win on 4th down rather than the FG to force OT if Houston was able to score and convert the two point conversion. Obviously they had a good feeling about their defense. However, Houston drove the field and scored to win 29-28. A dangerous game for Houston as they open up C-USA play and UTEP just might be jealous enough of Houston to make this a big game. They are really mad after losing 64-7 to Texas last week so we will see how UTEP plays Houston.

#16 Oregon vs. Washington State

After a season-opening loss at Boise State, Oregon has bounced back with three straight wins without their suspended tail back. They crushed California last week 42-3 at home and now they will welcome a road trip to struggling Washington State team. Washington St. has lost 15 of 16 games vs. ranked foes.

What Bettors Need to Know: Prime-Time NCAAF Matchups
By Nick Parsons

USC Trojans at California Golden Bears (+4, 48)

A couple weeks ago USC vs Cal was penciled in not only as key PAC 10 game, but a matchup with huge BCS title implications as well. However, Washington's upset over USC two weeks ago and Cal's 42-3 blowout loss to Oregon changed all of that.

USC - Unable to Score Consistently

It’s way too early to put USC offensive assistant Jeremy Bates on the hot seat, but when Jay Leno is making jokes and refers to USC as "Unable to Score Consistently" you know you have a problem.

USC has only averaged 19.3 points in its last three games and much of the criticism has been directed towards Bates and his play calling decisions. In their 16-13 loss to Washington, the Trojans went 0-for-10 on third down conversions.

Bates seemed to open up the offense a bit against Washington State calling for QB Matt Barkley to throw the deep ball a bit more, but after scoring 20 points in the first quarter, they were shutout in the second and third.

The Trojan offense will need to put up big numbers to take the heat off of Bates. The running back corps took at hit when a freak weightlifting accident put Stafon Johnson out for the year. Joe McKnight will be the feature back with Allen Bradford in for short yardage.

The loss of Johnson will serve as a rallying point for the team and super talented McKnight should be able to get into more of a rhythm with the extra carries.

The Riley Factor

Last week, the Golden Bears came into Oregon as 5.5-point favorites and with momentum on their side. At 3-0 they were seen as national title contenders and running back Jahvid Best was put into the Heisman race with a 131-yard, five-touchdown performance on the road against Minnesota.

The Oregon Ducks, however, managed to contain Best by crowding the line of scrimmage, with the Junior rushing for only 55 yards. The Golden Bears offensive line did little to keep them honest as QB Kevin Riley failed to generate any sort of threat in the air.

Cal does not have the benefit of playing a cupcake following a huge loss and will have to face a Trojan defense that has been solid averaging only 10 points against them per game. The Trojans D will mimic the Ducks defensive gameplan, meaning that Riley will have to come up with huge plays and improve upon his 12-31 123 yard performance from last week, if the Bears are to keep this close.

Line and Trends

The line currently sits between -4.5 and -5 in favor of USC after opening at -6. The Trojans are 1-3 ATS but this is the lowest spread that USC has had to deal with

The spread for last year's contest was -22 for USC but it failed to cover winning only 17-3. The Trojans dealt with single digits the previous two years, having covered -6 in 2006 by winning 23-9 and covering the 7-point spread in 2007 with a 24-17 victory at Berkeley.

The total for the game is in the 46.5 to 47.5 range. Last year's total was about the same at 47.5. The previous five matchups have gone under and the last time it went over was in 2003, which was also the last time that the Golden Bears won. The total was at 55 and USC loss 34-31

Moneyline for USC is -190, while the Golden Bears are at +165.

Oklahoma Sooners at Miami Hurricanes (+7.5, 51.5)

The last time these two met was in 2007, when Oklahoma blew out Miami 51-13. However, this is a new Hurricane team under a renaissance and third-year coach Randy Shannon hopes that Saturday's tilt resembles the 1988 version of this series, where they played for the National title with Miami winning 20-14

In with Jones

The Sooners began the season as 22-point favorites against BYU, but they not only ended up losing the game, they loss QB Sam Bradford as well. The contest in Miami provides their first true challenge since the defeat after having rolled by Idaho State and Tulsa by a combined score of 109-0.

As of press time, redshirt freshman Landry Jones was scheduled to start with Bradford still experiencing pain in shoulder. Jones was a high profile recruit out of New Mexico and he has done quite nicely replacing the Heisman winner. Jones has a 60.5 percent completion rate and has already thrown for 673 yards and nine TDs. Six of those came last week against Tulsa. He also has a mustache that rivals fellow Big 12 QB Taylor Potts.

However, this will be Jones's first big test on the road and he will have to deal with a loud crowd a rowdy Hurricane crowd

He won't have to do it alone though, as the Sooners have a wealth of talent at running back that looks to take advantage of a Hurricane defense that has had trouble against the run. In last week's loss to Virginia Tech, the Hokies threw for only 98 yards but rushed for 272 in a 31-7 victory over Miami.

Sooner Shutdown

Things don't get easier for Miami and QB Jacory Harris on the offensive side. The Sooners have not given up a point since the BYU game and were most impressive shutting down a Tulsa team averaged 565 yards and 47.4 points in offense last year.

The Hurricanes have a brutal schedule so far, having gone up against Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech, so don't expect them to be intimidated

Harris and the rest of the Miami team has got a little bit of that old Hurricane swagger back and motivation from last week's loss and home-field advantage should present the Sooner defense with their toughest challenge yet.

But if Miami is to stay in this game they will have to establish the run. In last week's 31-7 loss to Virginia Tech, the running game was non-existent with Miami rushing 34 times for just 59 yards. Oklahoma's secondary is too talented to have Harris carry the offense all on his own.

Line and Trends

There is value in the line for those who think this will be a close game, with the Sooners favored by 7.5 points. Some books are going as high as -8.5. But Oklahoma has had no problem covering the spread the last two years, having gone 10-3 ATS last year and 2-1 this year. This is also the first time this year that the Sooners will be dealing with a single digit spread.

The total is between 49 and 50. Miami has only gone over once this year, while Oklahoma's stellar defense has kept it under in all three games. The game that went over was Miami's only competitive versus Florida State.

Oklahoma to win straight up comes at an expensive -300, while the Hurricanes sit at +250

SEC News and Notes
By Brian Edwards

In the SEC, South Carolina (3-1 straight up, 4-0 against the spread) stole the show in Week 4 by capturing a 16-10 win over Ole Miss as a 4 ½-point underdog. Bettors backing Steve Spurrier’s team on the money line collected a plus-170 payout (risk $100 to win $170).

Senior linebacker Eric Norwood and junior defensive end Cliff Matthews dominated the football game. Norwood, who looks like a lock to garner first-team All-American honors, had 10 tackles and a pair of sacks to become the school’s career leader in that category. Matthews also had two sacks, another tackle for a loss, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.

The pass-rushing duo forced Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Snead into a nightmare performance – 7-of-21 for 107 yards passing – and all but ended his Heisman hopes in front of a national-television audience. The Rebels, who came to Williams-Brice Stadium as the No. 4 team in the nation, came crashing back to reality and saw their highest ranking in 45 years disappear.

Houston Nutt’s team will look to bounce back when it visits Music City this weekend. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Ole Miss (2-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) as a 10-point favorite with a total of 44 ½. As of Friday, most books had the Rebels favored by 10 (after the number was down to 8 ½ and/or nine for a good chunk of the week) with the total adjusted to 44. Vanderbilt (2-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) is plus-280 to win outright (risk $100 to win $280).

The Commodores will be without redshirt freshman WR John Cole, who suffered a broken hand in last week’s 36-17 victory at Rice. Before getting injured, Cole helped Vandy draw first blood against the Owls with a 31-yard touchdown run on a reverse early in the first quarter. Sophomore starting cornerback Jamie Graham is “questionable” after missing the win at Rice due to a concussion sustained in a 15-3 home loss to Mississippi St. in Week 3.

ESPNU will have the Ole Miss-Vandy telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

The 3:30 CBS game will pit LSU (4-0 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) against Georgia between the hedges. LVSC sent the game out as a pick ‘em with a 50-point tally. As of Friday, most spots had the Dawgs at 3 ½ with a total of 51 ½. The Tigers are plus-145 to win outright.

This is a huge revenge game for LSU, which gave up a 52-spot to UGA in a 52-38 loss at Tiger Stadium last season. The Tigers nearly got caught looking ahead last week when they won a 30-26 decision at Mississippi St.

Les Miles’ team needed a last-minute goal-line stand, a pick-six and a long punt return for a touchdown to escape Starkville unscathed. Chad Jones was the hero with a 93-yard punt return for a touchdown and a broken-up pass on third and goal in the final minute. MSU’s Tyson Lee had a wide-open receiver alone in the end zone when his throw was swatted away by Jones.

Despite remaining undefeated, Miles had to be concerned about the way his team was outplayed by the Bulldogs, who covered the number as double-digit puppies and out-yarded LSU 374-263.

Georgia (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) burned its backers and almost fell prey to an upset, too. Arizona St. came to Athens and rallied to tie the game at 17-17 in the final stanza. But Blair Walsh nailed a 37-yard field goal as time expired to lift Mark Richt’s team into the winner’s circle. The Sun Devils took the cash as double-digit ‘dogs.

Auburn (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) continues to fly under the radar nationally, perhaps because it has yet to leave the Plains. That changes Saturday when the War Eagles go to Neyland Stadium to take on Lane Kiffin’s team.

LVSC opened Tennessee (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 47 ½. As of Friday, the Vols were two-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted into the 51-52 range. Gene Chizik’s squad is plus-115 on the money line.

I had Auburn winning its first four games at home, but I had no idea it would go about its business in the impressive fashion it has done so. Seriously, who on earth saw Chris Todd producing an 11/1 touchdown-interception ratio before the end of September? How could anyone have expected the Tigers to produce more than 500 yards of total offense and average 45.2 points per game in their first four outings after sporting one of the nation’s most anemic offenses in 2008?

Let’s give credit to Chizik for hiring offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who is earning rave reviews in his second tour of duty in the SEC. (Remember, Malzahn was the o-coordinator at Arkansas who coached Mitch Mustain and Damian Williams in high school and delivered those blue-chippers to the Razorbacks before a much-publicized falling out with Houston Nutt.)

Auburn has demonstrated excellent balance with Todd’s passing and the ground-game combination of Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb, who are third and fourth in rushing in the SEC, respectively. Tate is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, while McCalebb has a 6.8 YPC average.

The most important matchup in this game will be between Malzahn and UT defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, who is the nation’s premier defensive tactician. The elder Kiffin has the best defensive tool in the country to work with in junior safety Eric Berry, who looks like a given to be a top-five selection in next year’s NFL Draft.

The Vols have the SEC’s leading rusher in Montario Hardesty, who is averaging 121.2 yards per game and has scored four touchdowns. Hardesty had fluid drained from his knee earlier this week and was limited in practice. Nevertheless, he is “probable” and expected to start. UT has an outstanding second-string RB in freshman Bryce Brown, who is averaging 5.0 YPC.

But the UT offense is extremely one-dimensional. Senior QB Jonathan Crompton has a 2/6 TD-INT ratio since throwing five TD passes in the opener against Western Ky. Crompton threw for 222 yards in last week’s 34-23 non-covering victory against Ohio.

ESPN will have the UT-Auburn telecast at 7:45 p.m. Eastern.

Alabama (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) will play its first true road game of the season Saturday at Kentucky. The Crimson Tide comes to Lexington as a 16-point favorite. The total is 47 and a few books have UK available for a plus-550 return on the money line (risk $100 to win $550).

Nick Saban’s team was dominant once again in last week’s 35-7 home triumph over Arkansas. The Tide easily covered the spread as a 17-point home ‘chalk.’ Junior QB Greg McElroy threw for 291 yards and three TDs without an interception, while ‘Bama’s defense completely shut down a Razorback offense that had previously been impressive with highly-regarded QB Ryan Mallett.

Kentucky (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) fell behind to Florida 31-0 by the end of the first quarter last week. The Wildcats eventually lost by a 41-7 count as 20 ½-point home underdogs. They gave ‘Bama fits last year in a 17-14 loss as 16 ½-point underdogs.

Kick-off is slated for 12:20 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.

After last week’s gut-wrenching defeat to LSU, Mississippi St. (2-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) jumps back into the fire when it hosts Ga. Tech at Scott Field. The Bulldogs will be hoping to avenge at 38-7 loss on the Flats last season.

The Yellow Jackets are coming off a 24-7 home win over North Carolina as 2 ½-point favorites. They were sparked to victory by a big performance from Jonathan Dwyer, who ran for 158 yards on 19 carries. Ga. Tech had a 24-8 advantage in first downs and out-yarded UNC 406-154.

Ga. Tech could be without four starters on the defensive side of the ball. DE Robert Hall and LB Kyle Jackson are “out,” while both safeties could also be in street clothes. Cooper Taylor is “doubtful” and Dominique Reese is “questionable.”

LVSC had the Jackets at four on the send-out, but the number has been six for most of the week. The total is 47 and gamblers can back MSU to win outright for a plus-190 payout.

Arkansas (1-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) is hoping to bounce back from last week’s debacle in Tuscaloosa, as it renews an old-school Southwest Conference rivalry against Texas A&M at Cowboys Stadium. Most books are listing the Hogs as 1 ½-point favorites with a total of 67.

South Carolina will host South Carolina St. in a non-lined matchup, while the Gators have an open date before next week's trip to Baton Rouge.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

How does LSU give workhorse running back Charles Scott only six carries in last week’s sketch win at Mississippi St.? Last time I checked, Scott ran for 1,174 yards and 18 TDs in 2008, averaging 5.4 YPC. Tighten it up, Mad Hatter.

Next week’s Florida at LSU game is scheduled for an 8:00 p.m. Eastern kick-off. The Tigers have won 31 consecutive home games at night.

Tennessee junior middle linebacker Nick Reveiz is out for the season with a torn ACL.

The Vols haven’t beaten Auburn since 1999.

Georgia LB Akeem Dent is “doubtful” vs. LSU.

Former Alabama QB Tyler Watts recently spoke at a gathering for Alabama boosters in Orange Beach. He had some interesting comments about former ‘Bama coaches Dennis Franchione and Mike DuBose.

vegasinsider.com

College Football Weekly Predictions - Week 5
by Alan Matthews

I liked three road dogs last week for our best of the best, and two of them came back to bite me to even our record this season at 6-6. We nailed TCU somehow getting points at Clemson, and the Horned Frogs won straight up, as I expected they would. But both Arkansas (at Alabama) and Illinois (at Ohio State) put up lousy offensive efforts, and neither came close to covering. Maybe it’s time to look at some favorites.

On to our Week 5 picks:

Florida State at Boston College, Saturday, noon

Current line: FSU -3.5. This has moved as much as two points toward Boston College since it opened – in fact, this opened at 6 at one book.

Who the public likes: Despite the line moving in favor of Boston College, approximately 71 percent of the public is leaning toward FSU as of this writing.

Last week was a major trap game for Florida State, and it showed. The Seminoles appear to be a completely different club on the road. These teams have met four times as ACC opponents, and the visiting team has won every time. In fact, FSU is the only ACC team with two wins at Boston College since the Eagles joined the conference in 2005. History does show this should be close, as the winning team in each of the past four years has won by 11 points or less and the team to score the first TD has won all four. There’s no question that FSU has way more talent this season, so it’s really just a matter of focus and limiting turnovers. The difference at QB is staggering. The Noles’ Christian Ponder has completed 46 of his last 63 passes (.73 percent) and leads the ACC with 1,082 yards passing. BC starts true freshman Dave Shinskie for the second week in a row. He was definitely good in the win over Wake last week, completing 18-of-29 passes, for 228 yards and three TDs. But the speed will be a little different on the other side of the ball this week.

Take FSU and give the points.

Michigan at Michigan State, Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Current line: Michigan State -3. No line on the board has moved as much as this one, with Michigan opening as a two-point favorite at some books.

Who the public likes: Despite a monster line move toward Michigan (or maybe now because of it), approximately 73 percent of the public is leaning toward the Wolverines. Indeed, the percentage of Sparty backers seems to have dropped as the line moved toward MSU.

This one should be high scoring. Michigan State leads the Big Ten in passing, averaging 320.8 yards per game. Michigan struggled against the pass against both Notre Dame and Indiana and was fortunate to win both. A big injury concern could be Wolverines freshman QB Tate Forcier, who has been terrific. He missed some practice this week with a bruised shoulder but will start. Sparty won in Ann Arbor last year, and Michigan hasn't lost to Michigan State in consecutive seasons since 1967. In addition, Michigan has won three straight games in East Lansing, but by just a combined 14 points. Mental mistakes (and poor defense) cost State in losses to Central Michigan, and four Spartan turnovers led to 21 Wisconsin points last week. I think Sparty gets it all together this week.

Take MSU and give the points.

Southern Cal at California, Saturday, 8 p.m.

Current line: Southern Cal -4.5. This has moved toward the host Bears about 1.5 points.

Who the public likes: When this line first opened, more than 60 percent of bettors were leaning toward Cal. Now it’s around 41 percent.

If Jahvid Best can’t even reach 60 yards rushing against Oregon, how does he expect to do any better against a Trojan defense that again is among the best in the country? That unit is sixth nationally in total defense (227.0 yards per game), fifth in scoring defense (10.0 points per game) and in the top 10 in rushing defense, allowing less than 60 yards per game. Last year, Best had just 30 yards on 13 carries in Cal’s 17-3 loss to the Trojans. That was the first time a Jeff Tedford-coached team had failed to score a touchdown until last week. Cal hasn’t been a good road team of late. Sure, the Bears won at Minnesota a few weeks ago, but overall they have lost five of six away from home. USC has won five in a row and seven of eight in this series. And with Matt Barkley getting healthier, the Trojans should win by at least a touchdown.

Take USC and give the points.

(8) Oklahoma (2-1, 1-1 ATS) at (17) Miami, Fla. (2-1 SU and ATS)

Oklahoma faces its toughest test since a season-opening loss to BYU when it travels to Miami, Fla., to battle a wounded Hurricanes team coming off a humbling loss.

The Sooners fell 14-13 to BYU as a 22½-point favorite in a neutral-site game in Dallas on Sept. 5, losing Heisman Trophy-winning QB Sam Bradford to a shoulder injury in the process. With Bradford sidelined, Oklahoma went out in its next two games and annihilated Idaho State and Tulsa – both at home – by the combined score of 109-0, outgaining both teams by a total of 780 yards. The Sooners have been idle since the 45-0 rout of Tulsa as an 18-point chalk on Sept. 19.

Backup QB Landry Jones (60.5 percent completion rate, 673 yards, 9 TDs, 3 INTs) has done a solid job filling in for Bradford, and with the junior still not 100 percent, Jones will get the starting nod tonight. Coach Bob Stoops didn’t say if Bradford is well enough to serve as Landry’s backup.

Miami jumped all the way to No. 9 in the national poll after impressive victories over ranked opponents Florida State (38-34 on the road) and Georgia Tech (33-17 at home). Then the Hurricanes went to Blacksburg, Va., a week ago as a 2½-point road chalk and got smacked 31-7. Miami managed just 209 total yards, including 59 on the ground, and QB Jacory Harris proved mortal with a 9-for-25 passing day for just 150 yards, no TDs and one INT. The defense surrendered 370 yards.

These national powers squared off in Norman, Okla., two years ago – the first meeting since the 1988 Orange Bowl – and it was no contest, as the Sooners cruised 51-13 as a 10½-point home favorite. Bradford, then a freshman, passed for 205 yards and five TDs, and OU finished with a 411-139 advantage in total offense.

Oklahoma is now 13-3 ATS in regular-season lined games since the end of the 2007 campaign, and the SU winner is 18-1 ATS in its last 19 contests. Going back further, the Sooners are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 overall and sport additional pointspread upticks of 6-0 on the road (all as a favorite), 7-1 when laying points, 7-3 in non-conference play and 6-1 against teams with a winning record.

Miami easily got the money in its 16-point home win over Georgia Tech two weeks ago, but it is still just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 in South Beach. On the bright side, the Hurricanes are on pointspread runs of 4-1 in non-league action, 5-1 as an underdog, 7-2 when catching between 3½ and 10 points and 6-1 versus the Big 12 (only non-cover coming at Oklahoma in 2007).

Oklahoma has stayed under the total in three straight games going back to last year’s BCS championship tilt with Florida, but otherwise the Sooners are on “over” rolls of 5-0 on the road, 12-3 as a favorite, 4-0 in October and 7-2 against winning teams. The over is also 5-2 in Miami’s last seven against the Big 12, but the under is 35-16-2 in its last 52 at home and 22-6 in its last 28 non-conference contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA

(7) USC (3-1, 1-3 ATS) at (25) California (3-1, 2-1 ATS)

Just days after star RB Stafon Johnson was seriously injured in a freak weightlifting accident, the Trojans will try to regroup and refocus when they invade Memorial Stadium in Berkeley for a key Pac-10 showdown against angry California.

After suffering a stunning 16-13 loss at Washington as a 20½-point road favorite, USC came home last Saturday and posted a lethargic 27-6 win over Washington State, coming up way short of covering the massing 45-point spread. The Trojans did have a 403-229 edge in total offense, and QB Matt Barkley returned from injury to go 13-for-22 for 247 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers.

Johnson, who rushed for 16 yards and a touchdown against Washington State and has 157 yards and five scores this season, will miss the remainder of his senior season after undergoing seven hours of surgery Monday to repair damage done to his neck after a weightlifting mishap.

Cal started the season with three straight blowout wins over Maryland (52-13), Eastern Washington (59-7) and Minnesota (35-21), rising all the way to No. 6 in the rankings. However, the Bears got a rude awakening last week at Oregon, scoring a field goal one minute into the game, then getting blanked 42-0 the rest of the way, falling as a 5½-point road chalk. With the loss, Jeff Tedford’s squad saw a six-game winning streak go by the wayside.

Cal was whipped in every way imaginable by the Ducks, getting outgained 236-77 on the ground and 288-130 in the air. Also, Bears RB and Heisman Trophy candidate Jahvid Best managed just 55 rushing yards on 16 carries and was held out of the end zone after scoring all five of his team’s TDs in a 35-21 victory the previous week at Minnesota.

USC earned a 17-3 victory over Cal last year to extend its winning streak in this rivalry to five in a row. However, the Bears got the cash as a 21½-point road ‘dog, ending the Trojans’ 3-0 ATS run. Cal is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings, all as an underdog. However, the visitor is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 series battles.

The Trojans have failed to cash in three straight games overall, five straight games on the highway (all as a favorite) and five straight Pac-10 contests. They’re also 4-12 ATS in their last 16 in October and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 Pac-10 road efforts, but they’re on positive pointspread streaks of 14-3 when laying 10 points or less, 14-6 against winning teams and 8-3 after a non-cover.

Cal has covered in eight straight home games since last year and is on additional ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 5-2 in Pac-10 play, 9-2 on artificial turf, and 4-0 after a non-cover. However, the Bears are 2-6 ATS both in their last eight as an underdog and their last eight as a home pup.

The Bears have topped the total in six of eight overall and four of five at home, but the under is 8-1 in their last nine as an underdog. Also, USC carries nothing but “under” trends, including 20-7-1 overall (3-0 last three), 4-1 on the road, 22-4-1 in Pac-10 play (2-0 this year), 7-1 in October and 5-1 on artificial turf. Finally, the last five meetings in this series have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CAL and UNDER

(4) LSU (4-0, 1-3 ATS) at (18) Georgia (3-1, 1-3 ATS)

The Bulldogs go after their fourth straight victory overall and their fourth straight win over LSU when they entertain the Tigers between The Hedges in the SEC’s marquee game of the week.

Georgia held off Arizona State 20-17 last Saturday night, but fell well short as a 12-point home favorite. A week after rolling up six TDs and 530 yards in an 11-point victory at Arkansas, the Bulldogs offense managed just 334 yards and two touchdowns against the Sun Devils, thanks in part to three turnovers. The defense, however, was stout, limiting ASU to just 204 yards (88 on the ground) after yielding a combined 78 points and 912 yards the previous two weeks.

LSU needed an incredible defensive goal-line stand last week to hold off Mississippi State 30-26, failing to cash as a 12-point road favorite. Up 30-24 – thanks to a defensive TD and a punt return for a score – the Tigers stoned Mississippi State on four tries from the 2-yard line with 90 seconds to play, then took an intentional safety for the final margin. Despite getting outgained 374-263 (including 151-30 on the ground), LSU won for the fifth straight time dating to last year’s 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

The Bulldogs went to Baton Rouge last October and pounded LSU 52-38 in a pick-em contest. Georgia is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings, winning by the combined score of 131-68. Prior to last season, the host had won five straight meetings in this rivalry (4-1 ATS).

LSU has now failed to cover in 11 of its last 13 regular-season games and is also on ATS slides of 7-19-1 overall, 7-21-1 in SEC play, 1-5 in October, 1-4 as an underdog and 2-6 versus winning teams. Georgia hasn’t been much better in the ticket-cashing department, sporting pointspread trends of 2-7 overall, 1-7 at home, 1-8 as a favorite, 1-4 in SEC action and 3-9 in October.

The last four meetings in this rivalry have topped the posted total, and the over for LSU is on runs of 17-8 overall, 13-4 in conference play, 8-2 on the road and 5-1 in October, while the over is 5-1 in Georgia’s last six SEC contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and OVER

Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Minnesota (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)

The Badgers try to remain perfect on the season as they travel to TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis for the annual Border Battle against Big Ten rival Minnesota, with the winner walking away with the Paul Bunyan Axe.

Wisconsin has opened the season with four straight wins, averaging 36 points and 428 yards of offense per contest. Junior QB Scott Tolzien (884 yards passing with eight TDs and two INTs) is completing 66.7 percent of his throws and leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency. Tolzien had 243 yards and four TDs a week ago as the Badgers beat Michigan State 38-30 as a two-point home favorite.

Minnesota went to Northwestern last Saturday and scored a 35-24 win as a one-point ‘dog, scoring two TDs in the fourth quarter to rally from a 24-21 deficit. RB Duane Bennett rushed for 89 yards and got into the end zone three times. The Gophers’ defense, which got torched for 131 yards and five TDs by Cal RB Jahvid Best the previous week, held the Wildcats to 64 rushing yards on 29 carries and forced three turnovers.

Wisconsin has owned this rivalry lately, winning five straight (3-2 ATS) and eight of the last 10 (6-3-1 ATS). The Badgers edged Minnesota 35-32 last year, falling well short as 13½-point home favorites.

Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five Big Ten contests, but otherwise it’s on pointspread slides of 3-9 on the road, 3-8 as a ‘dog, 1-6 as a road pup and 2-6 against teams with winning records. The Gophers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, but otherwise they are on ATS streaks of 8-3 in Big Ten contests, 4-1 in October and 9-3 following a SU win.

The over has been the play lately for the Badgers, currently on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 9-3 in conference games and 4-0 following a SU win. For Minnesota, the over is 5-2 in its last seven overall, but the under on streaks of 7-0 when with the Gophers as a favorite, 4-0 in October and 12-3 at home against teams with a winning road record. Finally, the over has cashed in nine straight meetings in this rivalry, including four straight in Minnesota.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Florida State (2-2, 1-2 ATS) at Boston College (3-1, 2-1 ATS)

Bobby Bowden takes his Seminoles to Alumni Stadium in Boston for an ACC matchup with Boston College.

Two weeks ago Florida State was talking about being back among the nation’s elite teams after a 54-28 road demolition of nationally ranked BYU, but a shocking 17-7 loss at home to South Florida a week ago knocked the ‘Noles out of the Top 25 again. Despite facing a freshman QB making his debut, the Seminoles gave up 368 yards to South Florida, while the offense produced just 288 yards and lost four fumbles in falling as a 14-point home favorite. Although Florida State is playing inconsistently as a team, QB Christian Ponder is having a fine season, as he leads the ACC in total offense (291.2 yards) and passing yards per game at 270.5 with four TDs and one INT.

The Eagles fell 25-7 at Clemson two weeks ago as a nine-point underdog, but came back last week and rallied from a 14-point, fourth-quarter deficit to edge Wake Forest 27-24 in overtime as a one-point home favorite. Boston College’s 25-year-old freshman QB David Shinskie threw for 228 yards, three TDs and an INT against Wake Forest in his first college start after spending six years playing minor league baseball.

This is the fifth straight year these teams have met since Boston College joined the ACC with the road team winning and covering in the previous four. Last year, the Eagles went to Tallahassee last year and got a 27-17 win as a seven-point pup, with Florida State winning by the same score in 2007 in Boston as a 6½-point underdog. The ‘dog has pulled the outright upset in each of the last three meetings.

Florida State is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight after a non-cover, but it is on pointspread slides of 8-17 in October and 5-11-1 as a road chalk. Boston College has cashed in four straight home games and is 12-5 ATS as an underdog since 2004 (3-1 ATS as a home pup), but it is 1-8 ATS in its last nine following a spread-cover.

The Seminoles are on “over” streaks of 10-3 in October, 7-3 on the road and 11-5 against teams with winning records. Boston College has stayed below the posted total in six of eight as a ‘dog and five of seven as a home pup, but the Eagles are on “over” runs of 7-2 in Big East play, 5-2 at home and 11-4 on turf. Meanwhile, the “over” is 3-1 in the four series meetings, with the two contests in Boston topping the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE

(3) Alabama (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Kentucky (2-1, 1-2 ATS)

The Crimson Tide head to Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Ky., hoping to remain perfect on the season when they battle SEC foe Kentucky.

Alabama crushed Arkansas 35-7 at home last week as a 17½-point home favorite, just a week after blasting North Texas 53-7 as 37-point favorites. Going back to the start of last season, the Crimson Tide have won 16 consecutive regular-season games, with all but three being double-digit blowouts. In fact, including losses to Florida in the SEC title game and Utah in the Sugar Bowl, 16 of the Tide’s last 18 games have been decided by double digits.

Alabama ranks second in the country in scoring defense, yielding 202.5 total yards per game allowed, including just 47.3 rushing yards per contest. However, the defense will be hampered today as star linebacker Dont’a Hightower (team-high 23 tackles this season) tore a knee ligament against Arkansas and is out for the remainder of the season.

Kentucky’s offense was horrific last Saturday, managing just 179 yards in a 41-7 home loss to Florida, coming up way short as a 20½-point home pup. The Wildcats trailed 31-0 after the first quarter, and QB Mike Hartline was just 13-for-28 for 95 yards and two INTs.

Alabama has won three straight (1-2 ATS) and six of seven (3-4 ATS) over Kentucky dating to 1988. Last year the Crimson Tide edged the ‘Cats 17-14 but fell way short as a 15½-point home favorite, as the visitor improved to 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.

‘Bama is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 8-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 8-2 as a favorite, 6-1 as a road chalk, 5-1 in SEC games and 7-2 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have cashed in five straight home games against teams with winning road records, but otherwise they are on ATS slides of 3-9-1 at home, 2-6 in SEC play and 1-5 in October.

The Crimson Tide have topped the total in four of five overall, but otherwise they are on “under” runs of 12-4 in October, 4-0 in SEC play and 4-1 after an ATS win. It’s been all “overs” for the Wildcats lately, including 4-1 at home, 5-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-1 when facing opponents with a winning record. These two teams flew over the total last time they were in Kentucky, but the under has been the play in two of the last three overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and OVER

(25) Georgia Tech (3-1, 1-2 ATS) at Mississippi State (2-2, 2-1 ATS)

The Yellow Jackets take a break from ACC action when they travel to Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss., for a non-conference battle with Mississippi State.

Georgia Tech rebounded from an ugly 33-17 loss at Miami, Fla., as a four-point underdog with last Saturday’s 24-7 home win over No. 22 North Carolina as a three-point favorite, jumping back into the national rankings with the victory while knocking the Tar Heels out of the Top 25. RB Jonathan Dwyer ran for a season-high 158 yards as the ‘Jackets outrushed the Tar Heels 317-17. Georgia Tech is now averaging 262 rushing yards per contest.

The Bulldogs got 106 rushing yards and two TDs from RB Anthony Dixon in last week’s 30-26 home loss to seventh-ranked LSU, but they did get the cash as a 12-point underdog. QB Tyson Lee threw for 172 yards and had a chance to be the hero, but was stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 1:08 left in the game. Mississippi State, which had four cracks from inside the 5-yard line on the game-deciding possession against LSU, has alternated wins and losses this season, but is 3-6 ATS in its last nine lined contests.

These teams met last year in Atlanta with Georgia Tech getting the easy 38-7 win as a seven-point home favorite.

The Yellow Jackets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight on the road and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five October outings, but they’re also on pointspread slides of 1-5 after a SU win and 4-11 as a road favorite of 3½ to 10 points. Mississippi State is on positive ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 6-0 as a home pup and 5-0 at home against teams with winning road marks, however it is just 4-9-1 in October over the past three-plus seasons.

Georgia Tech is on “under” runs of 5-1 on the road, 20-5-2 in October and 8-2 after a SU win, but the ‘Jackets have gone “over” the total in four of six non-conference games. Meanwhile, it’s been all “unders” for the Bulldogs lately, including 4-1 in October, 8-3 after an ATS win and 4-1 at home against teams with winning road records. Last year’s clash between these schools in Atlanta cleared the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH

(15) Penn State (3-1, 0-4 ATS) at Illinois (1-2, 0-2 ATS)

Penn State will try to rebound from a stunning home loss to Iowa when it takes to the road for the first time in 2009 for a Big Ten clash with struggling Illinois.

The Nittany Lions went off as a 9½-point favorite last Saturday night against the Hawkeyes and jumped out to a 7-0 lead less than two minutes into the game and led 10-0 after one quarter, but Iowa scored the final 21 points to prevail 21-10. Penn State’s defense played well (298 yards allowed, two forced turnovers), but QB Daryll Clark had a miserable day after tossing the early TD strike, finishing 12-for-32 for 198 yards and three interceptions. Clark was also sacked in the end zone for a safety, and Iowa blocked a punt that it returned for a score.

Illinois had its own offensive issues at Ohio State last week, getting blanked 30-0 as a 14-point road underdog. QB Juice Williams (13-for-25, 77 yards, 2 TDs; 18 rushing yards on 15 carries) was a disaster, and the Illini got outrushed 236-82. In its two losses – to Ohio State and Missouri – Illinois got outscored 67-9 and outgained by 260 total yards.

Penn State beat the Illini 38-24 at home last year, improving to 13-3 SU in the last 16 meetings. However, Illinois barely cashed as a 15-point road underdog, its third straight spread-cover in this series (all as an underdog). The ‘dog is 5-1 in the last six meetings, but the Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Champaign.

The Nittany Lions have failed to get the money in five straight games overall and seven of eight, and they’re 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points. Joe Paterno’s bunch is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six as a road chalk, and it went 3-0-1 ATS in October last year. Meanwhile, Illinois’ pointspread slides are numerous, including 0-5 overall, 2-4 at home, 1-4 in conference, 0-4 against winning teams, 0-7 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points and 17-34 after an outright defeat.

For Penn State, the under is on runs of 4-0 this season and 24-9-2 after a non-cover, while the under is 3-0 in the Illini’s last three overall, 3-1-1 in its last five conference tilts and 5-2 in its last seven October contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

(22) Michigan (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Michigan State (1-3, 1-2 ATS)

Two rivals going in opposite directions hook up in East Lansing, Mich., where the unbeaten Wolverines take on Michigan State in the second Big Ten game for both squads.

Michigan exceeded its win total from last year with last week’s come-from-behind 36-33 victory over Indiana, never threatening to cover as an 18½-point home favorite. Freshman QB Tate Forcier connected with Martavious Odoms on a 26-yard TD pass with 2½ minutes to play as the Wolverines, who finished 3-9 in coach Rich Rodriguez’s debut season in 2008, improved to 4-0 (all at home). Michigan got outgained 467-372 in the win.

Since opening with a 44-3 home rout of Division I-AA Montana State, the Spartans have suffered three consecutive close losses to Central Michigan, Notre Dame and Wisconsin by a combined 13 points. Last week, Michigan State went to Madison, Wis., and fell behind 38-17 in the fourth quarter before getting two meaningless touchdowns in the final 2:07 to lose 38-30 as a two-point road underdog. It put up 486 total yards in the defeat, but gave up 436.

The Spartans traveled to Ann Arbor last year and pounded Michigan 35-21 as a 3½-point road favorite, snapping a six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS) in this rivalry. The visitor is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six series meetings, with four of the games decided by eight points or less (including two overtime contests). Finally, the favorite has gotten the money each of the last three years, and the SU winner is 13-3 ATS the last 16 years.

The Wolverines ha scored 31, 38, 45 and 36 points in their four victories after cracking the 30-point barrier just once in 12 games a year ago. They’re averaging 37.5 points and 422 total yards per contest (240.2 rushing ypg), while Michigan State is averaging 32.8 points and 438.5 total yards (320.8 passing ypg).

Despite starting the season 3-1 ATS, Michigan is still just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 overall and is in further pointspread nosedives of 1-4 on the road, 1-7 in Big Ten play, 0-4 in October, 2-5 after a SU win and 3-7 against teams with a losing record. However, the Wolverines have covered in eight of their last 11 as a road pup.

Michigan State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after a non-cover, but otherwise is in ATS slumps of 1-4 overall, 1-4 at home, 0-4 versus winning teams, 11-23 as a home favorite, 2-6 when laying three points or less, 7-16 after an outright loss and 5-11 in October.

The over for Michigan is on runs of 4-1 overall, 7-1 on the road, 7-2 in Big Ten play, 20-8 as an underdog, and the Spartans are on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 10-3 in conference and 20-8 in October. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five series meetings and 3-1-1 in the past five clashes in East Lansing.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

UCLA (3-0 SU and ATS) at Stanford (3-1 SU and ATS)

Off to its best start in four years, UCLA heads up north for its Pac-10 opener against surprising Stanford, which is looking to end a five-game losing streak to the Bruins.

UCLA took last week off after dismantling Kansas State 23-9, covering as an 11-point home favorite to move to 4-0 ATS since last year’s spread-cover against USC in the season finale. The Bruins’ defense has been the catalyst, allowing a total of 38 points in three contests while giving up just 251 total yards per game and 74.3 rushing ypg (2.3 yards per carry). Rick Nueheisel’s team is 3-0 for the first time since 2005.

Stanford racked up 424 total yards, including 321 on the ground, as it picked apart Washington 34-14 last Saturday, dumping the Huskies as a 9½-point favorite a week after Washington upset USC. The Cardinal’s three wins have come by 26, 25 and 20 points, with the lone blemish being a last-second, 24-17 setback at Wake Forest on Sept. 12. Stanford is averaging 33 points and 419.5 yards per game, doing the bulk of the damage on the ground (233.8 rushing ypg, 5.9 ypc).

The Bruins got a 7-yard TD pass with 10 seconds left to pull out a 23-20 victory over Stanford last year as a 2½-point home underdog. It was UCLA’s fifth straight win and third consecutive spread-cover in this rivalry, including a 45-17 rout as a 16½-point road chalk in its last trip to Palo Alto in 2007. Prior to that blowout loss, the Cardinal had been on a 4-0 ATS run at home against the Bruins.

Also in this rivalry, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the ‘dog has gotten the money in seven of the last 10.

UCLA is on ATS runs of 13-5-1 overall, 16-6 in Pac-10 action, 35-17 when catching points, 8-3 as a visiting underdog, 5-2 as a road pup in conference play and 28-11 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Stanford has now cashed in eight consecutive home games and is on additional pointspread surges of 6-2 overall, 5-1 in conference, 4-0 as a favorite (all at home) and 4-1 versus winning teams.

The Bruins are on a bevy of “under” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 3-1-1 on the road, 19-7-1 in conference, 5-1-1 in October and 4-0 as an underdog. The under is also 41-18-1 in Stanford’s last 60 Pac-10 games, 8-2 in its last 10 as a home favorite and 22-5 in its last 27 in October. Finally, six of the last seven UCLA-Stanford clashes have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Auburn (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Tennessee (2-2 SU and ATS)

After four straight double-digit home wins to start the campaign, Auburn hits the highway for the first time when it matches up against Tennessee at Neyland Stadium.

The Tigers throttled Louisiana Tech (37-13), Mississippi State (49-24), West Virginia (41-30) and Ball State (54-30), not only averaging 45.2 points per game but also 526.2 yards per outing with a near perfect balance of 265 passing ypg and 261.2 rushing ypg. After cashing in its first three contests, Auburn gave up 13 points to Ball State in garbage time last week to come up short as a 32-point home chalk.

Tennessee bounced back from a 10-point loss at top-ranked Florida with last Saturday’s 34-23 home win over Ohio, falling way short, though, as a 23½-point chalk. The Vols have scored 97 points in their two victories but just 28 in their two defeats, but the defense has been rock solid all year, surrendering just 18 points and 233 yards per outing (87 rushing ypg). Going back to last season, Tennessee held seven straight opponents to 23 points or less (15 ppg).

Auburn arrives in Knoxville having won four in a row against Tennessee (2-2 ATS), though three of contests were in Alabama. Last year, the Tigers held on for a 14-12 win, falling short as a 6½-point home chalk, as the Vols improved to 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Nine of the last 12 clashes have been decided by 10 points or fewer, including two ties, and the underdog has cashed in three straight since 2004.

Although they’ve covered in three of four this year, the Tigers are still in ATS ruts of 4-10 overall, 0-5 on the road, 1-4 as an underdog (all on the road), 2-7 in SEC play, 0-4 in October and 0-7 after a non-cover. Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight conference games, but 3-7 ATS in its last 10 at home and 9-20 ATS in its last 29 as a home chalk.

Auburn has topped the total in all four games this season, but the under is 5-1 in its last six on the road, 11-4 in its last 15 as a road pup and 13-5 in its last 18 SEC games. Also, the Vols are on “under” runs of 19-6-1 overall, 34-16-3 at home, 22-8-2 in conference action, 9-3-1 as a chalk, 12-3-1 against winning teams, 5-0 in October, 5-0-1 after a SU win and 8-0 after an ATS setback.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER

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