Tips and Trends
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Arkansas (-1.5, O/U 65.5): The Razorbacks are 1-2 compared to Texas A&M’s 3-0, but early money has pushed the opening number of pick to Arkansas being the favorite. Bettors appreciate Arkansas’ tough schedule compared to the Aggies’ much easier September slate of opponents. The Razorbacks opened with a 48-10 win against Missouri State, a non-board team. Arkansas then lost to Georgia, 52-41, and last week to powerhouse SEC rival Alabama, 35-7. Big plays have hurt the Razorbacks. They’ve surrendered six scoring plays of more than 40 yards in their last two games. The Razorbacks have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 non-conference matchups. They also are 0-4 against the number in their past four neutral sites games with this matchup being held at the Dallas Cowboys new stadium in Arlington, Texas. Arkansas, though, has a dangerous offense led by quarterback Ryan Mallet, who has passed for 877 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Over has cashed 10 of the past 14 times in Arkansas’ last 14 non-conference games.
The Over is 6-0 the last six times Arkansas has been favored.
Key Injuries - Wide receiver London Crawford (collarbone) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (Side of the Day)
Texas A&M: The Aggies are unbeaten, but their wins have come across less-than-powerful foes New Mexico, Utah State and Alabama-Birmingham. All three of these games were at home for Texas A&M in College Station. Early money has come against the Aggies with the belief being Arkansas is the superior team from the superior conference. Texas A&M is 2-7 against the spread the past nine times it has been an underdog. The Aggies also are 2-9 against the spread following a victory. The Aggies want to prove their undefeated record isn’t bogus. They lead the nation in total offense averaging 574.3 yards. None of their previous opponents have come close to stopping their hurry-up, spread offense that has resulted in an average of 45 points per contest. Quarterback Jerrod Johnson has accounted for 13 touchdowns, highest in the country. He’s thrown for nine scores and run for four more touchdowns.
The Over is 11-4-1 in Texas A&M’s last 16 non-conference matchups.
The Over has cashed in 8 of the Aggies’ last 11 games.
Key Injuries - Offensive lineman Lee Grimes (ribs) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 32
USC at California
USC(-4, O/U 48): Injuries on offense and a stunning loss to Pac-10 foe Washington have taken a lot of the luster off Southern Cal. The Trojans have been bet down from being an opening 6 ½-point favorite. Stafon Johnson, the Trojans’ leading rusher from a year ago, suffered a crushed neck and larynx after a weight room accident. Freshman quarterback Matt Barkley is dealing with pain in his right shoulder, although his velocity seemed good in practice. USC is averaging 28.5 points per game, 57th in the country. The Trojans’ third-down conversion rate is just 25 percent, worst in the Pac-10. USC, though, ranks among the top six nationally in total defense, scoring defense and tackles for losses and sacks. USC held Cal’s star running back, Jahvid Best, to 30 yards rushing last season. USC has covered 14 of the past 20 times when facing a team with a winning record.
The Trojans are 14-3 ATS when favored between 3 ½ and 10 points.
USC is 22-4-1 to the Under in its past 27 Pac-10 matchups.
Key Injuries - Running back Stafon Johnson (neck) is out.
Linebacker Malcom Smith (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 26
California: The Golden Bears are trying to change a reputation for blowing crucial games while on the cusp of making a national statement. That happened again last week when Cal’s six-game winning streak came to a screeching halt with a shocking 42-3 road loss to Oregon, leaving bettors to wonder if the Golden Bears suffered a huge loss of confidence. Cal was averaging 48.7 points in winning its first three games versus Maryland, Eastern Washington and Minnesota. Heisman Trophy candidate tailback Jahvid Best managed just 55 yards against the Ducks last week. Southern Cal is giving up only 1.7 yards per rush. Quarterback Kevin Riley is completing 57 percent of his passes for five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Golden Bears were 5-0 in conference home games last year, giving up an average of 14.6 points in those contests. Cal has covered 10 of its last 11 home games.
The Under has cashed 8 of the last nine times Cal has been an underdog.
The Under is 5-0 in the past five meetings between the two schools.
Key Injuries - Wide receiver Nyan Boateng (foot) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 22 (UNDER - Total of the Day)