Ron Raymond
DALLAS COWBOYS
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DALLAS COWBOYS
Ted Sevransky
Saturday's Bowl Bash
Memphis at South Florida
PICK: Memphis
Double digit favorites have been an absolute disaster for bettors to support in early bowl games. The only reason that these teams are favored by this type of a margin to begin with is because of their pre-season expectations; expectations that they clearly did not live up to. South Florida is a classic example of one such team. The Bulls entered the season as a dark horse national title contender. At a minimum, Jim Leavitt’s team was expected to compete for the Big East crown. Instead, they disappointed their supporters all year long, finishing with a 2-5 mark in conference play. Their signature victory for the season came back in September, a three point, come-from-behind win against a Kansas squad that didn’t live up to expectations either. The Bulls won only twice all year by double digit margins – beating 3-9 Syracuse at home, and dominating NC State in a game where the Wolfpack were without their starting quarterback.
Junior quarterback Matt Grothe has not really improved since his freshman year, with a lower QB rating as both a sophomore and a junior as he had in his first year as the starter. Grothe is prone to both interceptions and fumbles – turnovers were a problem for the Bulls this year. No running back on the team gained even 400 yards – Grothe was the leading rusher as well. None of Grothe’s receivers developed into a ‘go-to’ pass catcher, with Jessie Hester’s 557 receiving yards and Taurus Johnson’s five receiving touchdowns leading the team in both categories. The Bulls ranked in the middle of the NCAA pack in both rushing and passing offense. This is not a team that consistently puts up points in bunches, and it’s very difficult to win bowl games by double digit margins without an offense that is capable of exploding.
The location and situation surrounding this bowl game does not favor South Florida one iota. They closed the season on a 1-4 SU run, watching their chances at a bigger and better bowl game slip away, week by week. Normally, a home state game is a positive factor. In this game, the prospect of sleeping in their own beds during bowl season is not a good one, particularly for a game that nobody, from the coaching staff on down, seems to be particularly excited about. Expect a lethargic effort from the ‘home’ team here.
Memphis is no juggernaut, but they are certainly capable of competing, which is all we can ask for out of our double digit underdogs. The Tigers have been running the football effectively, averaging nearly than 300 yards per game on the ground over their final four contests. QB Arkelon Hall is fully healthy after missing a few games in early November. Five different receivers caught at least 28 passes and two touchdowns. While the Tigers defense is not a particularly stout unit, their level of enthusiasm for this bowl game in comparison to South Florida’s lack of excitement makes this underdog worthy of support. 3* Take Memphis.
ASA
3* BYU
Billy Coleman
Coll.Football
3* Wake Forest -3
Spylock
Baltimore 3 units
DAVE MALINSKY
4* Memphis +12.5
4* Byu +3
4* Troy -4
4* Balt/Dallas Under 39.5
Allan Eastman
$2000.00 #103 Baltimore (+4) over Dallas
The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road and are up against a team coming off its best win of the year. It’s going to be tough for Baltimore to get up off the mat, but going to Big D to play in a national televised game should do the trick. Baltimore is just a more physical team and they should be able to win this one, or at least keep it around a field goal game.
atslocks.com
Navy +3 (10 unit play)
Fresno State -3 (10 unit play)
Memphis +12 (5 unit play)
Arizona -3 (5 unit play)
LARRY NESS
Las Vegas Insider- NCAAF
Wake Forest (7-5) and Navy (8-4) open the 34-game bowl season in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl at RFK Stadium on Saturday. It is one of two regular season rematches in this year's bowl season (Air Force vs Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec 31 is the other). It's been reported that Navy athletic director Chet Gladchuk wanted to avoid this rematch but Wake head coach wanted it, especially since the proximity of the site allows Wake fans to easily attend. Navy will be headed to its sixth consecutive bowl game, while Wake is appearing in its third straight bowl game for just the second time in school history (last accomplished the feat from 1950-52). These schools met in Winston-Salem back on September 27, with then-No. 16 Wake (3-0 at the time) being installed as a 16-point choice. However, the Demon Deacons turned the ball over six times (QB Skinner had four INTs and a fumble) and fell behind 17-0. Navy lost its starting QB (Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada) during the second quarter of that game and Wake rallied, but the Middies held on for a 24-17, the school's first over a ranked team since 1985. Kaheaku-Enhada returned in Navy's 34-0 rout of Army on Dec 6, after having been limited to five games this season with a hamstring injury. Led by the one-two punch of Shun White and Eric Kettani, Navy led the nation with 298.3 rushing YPG, as White ran for 1,021 yards (8.7 YPC) and TDs, while Kettani had 932 yards (5.3 YPC) and four TDs (had a career-high 175 vs Wake!). Navy's defense finished the year with back-to-back shutouts (beat Northern Illinois 16-0, prior to Army) but let's note that Northern Illinois ranked 84th in total yards (63rd in scoring at 25.3 per) and Army ranked 110th in yards (and 116th in scoring at 14.8 per). Navy's plus-16 in TO margin this year, tied for No. 3 in the nation but the team the Middies are tied with is Wake. Despite a six-to-two TO deficit vs Navy, Wake also finished the season plus-16 in TO margin. Wake has a huge OL but the team ran for just 111.6 YPG and a pathetic 2.9 YPC. However, RBs Pendergrass and Adams are both "much better than their numbers" this year and recent ankle problems will reportedly not be a concern in this game. Also, let's note that QB Riley Skinner has been known for his ability to NOT make mistakes, as despite his modest abilities, he's gone 25-11 as Wake's starting QB. He's been the starter in all but two games of Grobe's three-year run of 26-12 at Wake, the most wins in school history over a three-year span. Skinner has faced much tougher defensive units in the ACC this year and while Wake's D will have to deal with Navy's option, it's something Grobe's now seen for the third time since the beginning of the 2007 season. The Demon Deacons only won four of their final nine games, finishing in four-way tie for third place in the ACC's Atlantic Division. The team was surely expecting more out of this year, after going 9-4 LY, including beating U Conn 24-10 in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Nine starters returned on defense plus five on offense, including QB Skinner and RB Josh Adams, the 2006 and 2007 ACC Rookies of the Year, respectively. Wake's offense underachieved all season, ranking 103rd in total YPG (315.8), 101st in rushing YPG (111.6) and 97th in scoring (20.3 PPG). However, let's remember that the Demon Deacons are not only playing with revenge but have gone from being more than a TD favorite (albeit at home), to being favored by about a FG. Navy will give a good effort but if Charlie Weis' team could beat them on a neutral field (Baltimore), an outstanding coach like Grobe ought to be able to "get it right" the "second time around." Groge wanted this rematch and it's up to him to 'deliver.' I'm betting on just that happening.
Las Vegas Insider on Wake Forest.
15 * Las Vegas Bowl Major Mismatch
The 17th-ranked Cougars, who were hoping to land a spot in a BCS bowl game before this season began, make their fourth straight appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 20 when they face an Arizona team playing in its first bowl in a decade. BYU won back-to-back MWC titles in 2006 and 2007, finishing each season 11-2. The Cougars opened the 2008 season ranked 16th in the AP poll and extended the nation's longest active winning streak to 16 straight, while reaching No. 8 in the AP poll. However, talk of a possible BCS bowl ended when the Cougars were manhandled in Fort Worth by TCU on Oct 16, 32-7. BYU didn't lose again until its season-ender, falling 48-24 at Utah. The loss means the 10-2 Cougars are headed back to the Las Vegas Bowl for the fourth consecutive year, with a win meaning a third straight 11-2 season. As for the Wildcats, their 7-5 finish marks the school's first winning season in a decade and the Las Vegas Bowl will be the Wildcats' first bowl appearance since that 1998 season, when Ariozna finished 12-1 after beating Nebraska, 23-20 in the Holiday Bowl. Mike Stoops, Bob's brother, took five years to get his first winning season at Tucson (began the year 17-29 in four years at Arizona) and this trip is a big deal. One could argue that BYU may be somewhat disappointed with a fourth straight Las Vegas Bowl appearance but I'm not 'taking that route." These teams have met in each of the last two regular seasons, with Arizona winning 16-13 in Tucson to open the 2006 season and BYU winning 20-7 in Provo in 2007's season-opener for both teams. Both offenses are run by Mike Leach diciples, Robert Anae of BYU and Sonny Dykes at Arizona. However, I give a fairly big edge to BYU in this department, as they've been running a passing-first scheme for decades, while Arizona is rather new to this 'game.' Max Hall gives BYU a HUGE edge at QB, as he's followed a 2007 season in which he threw for over 3,800 yards (26 TDs and 12 INTs) with an even better year in 2008. Hall enters this game with 3,629 passing yards, has 34 TDs and 13 INTs plus has increased his completion percentage from 60.1 two years ago, to 69.6 this season. He's 21-4 as a starter and has thrown at least one TD pass in 22 of his 25 games. WR Collie (95 catches) ranks 4th in catches per game (7.92) and No. 1 in YPG at 118.3. TE Pitta, who is said to be fine after a late-season injury, has 78 catches for 1,023 yards with six TDs (Collie has 15). The OL is HUGE, featuring four seniors, who have allowed Hall to be sacked just 18 times. RB Unga is over 1,000 yards for the second straight season (had 1,227 / 5.0 YPC / 13 TDs last year), with 1,061 yards (4.8 YPC) and 10 TDs. Head coach Mendenhall is a "defensive guy" and while this year's 'D' is not as good as the last two seasons (BYU allowed 14.7 PPG in '06 and 18.5 PPG in '07), the Cougars' average of 21.2 PPG allowed ranks 34th and the 350.9 YPG allowed ranks 58th. Arizona is 16th in the nation in scoring (37.1 PPG), slightly ahead of BYU which finished 19th at 35.3 PPG. QB Willie Tuitama finished second in the Pac 10 in passing yards (2,763), TD passes (21) and with only eight INTs, finished second in the Pac 10 with a QB rating of 143.0. Grigsby (1,066 YR / 5.5 YPC / 12 TDs) and Antolin (525 YR / 4,5 YPC / 10 TDs) give Arizona a balanced offense (164.0 YPG on the ground) but Grigsby is known as a 'fumbler.' Like BYU, Arizona owns a top-notch TE in Rob Gronkowski, who caught 43 passes with 10 TDs despite missing the season's first three games. Arizona is 20th in the nation in total defense (302.1 PPG) but here's the rub. The Wildcats allowed a modest 14.7 PPG in their seven home games but gave up 30.6 in their five road contests. With three straight Las Vegas Bowl appearnces prior to this game and two regular season games in Las Vegas against UNLV in '05 and '07, this will BYU's SIXTH game at Sam Boyd Stadium in four years. Talk about a home away from home. Hall had five INTs against the Utes on Nov 22 and will be eager to "make amends," as will the Cougars, who lost to their bitter rivals. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are off a satisfying 31-10 win over Arizona State in their regular season finale and find themselves in their first bowl game in 10 years, against a program which will be playing in its seventh bowl game since 1998. BYU is the better team and is getting points in very familiar surroundings. Let''s also not forget that the Pac 10 was down this year, with MWC teams going 6-1 SU vs Pac 10 opponents in 2008.
Major Mismatch 15* BYU.
DR BOB
3 Star Selection
***Memphis 26 S. Florida (-12.5) 29 (at St. Petersburg Bowl)
While South Florida can be considered a home team here, with this game being played just a short drive from Tampa, I’m not sure that’s really an advantage. I just don’t see how a veteran South Florida team that had major bowl game aspirations will be fired up to play in a minor bowl game against an uninspiring opponent while not getting to go somewhere new and exciting. Big favorites in minor bowl games have always been bad bets and that is especially true of a team that had loftier goals. South Florida applies to a negative 1-19-3 ATS bowl big favorite letdown situation while Memphis has got to be fired up to make it to any bowl game after earning their way with a 6-6 record by winning 3 of their last 4 games. The Tigers apply to a 61-19-4 ATS minor bowl underdog angle as well as a 24-2 ATS bowl situation. The technical analysis is about as strong as it can get, so the next step is to check to make sure the line is fair.
Memphis is a an above average offensive team with Arkelon Hall at quarterback, as the Tigers run the ball pretty well (5.2 yards per rushing play in 11 games against Division 1A teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) and Hall posted slightly better than average numbers (6.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) while throwing just 7 interceptions on 304 pass attempts. Memphis had just one horrible offensive game (3.2 yards per play and 10 points against East Carolina), but Hall was knocked out of that game against the Pirates early in the first quarter and backup quarterback Will Hudgins was injured on the next series. Hall missed two more games after that one, but he’s healthy now and should post good numbers against a sub-par South Florida secondary that has allowed 6.3 yards per pass play to a slate of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.8 yppp against an average defensive team. USF is very good defending the run (3.9 yprp allowed), but that will simply force Hall to throw more, which should enhance the Tigers’ attack.
What made Memphis a below average team this season was a defensive unit that allowed 6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average team. The Tigers, however, were missing their two best defensive players for parts of the season, as star LB Greg Jackson (3 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss in 9 games) missed weeks 3 through 5 while top defensive lineman Clinton McDonald (7 sacks in 8.3 games) was injured early in week 7 and then missed the next 3 games. Memphis got a little worse against the run when Jackson was hurt and they became particularly vulnerable to the run when McDonald was lost for almost 4 games. Memphis was 1.1 yppl worse than average defensively for the season (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl), but they were only 0.6 yppl worse than average in 4 games in which Jackson and McDonald both played (after adjusting for the absence of Tulane’s top two offensive players). South Florida is a better than average offensive team (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), but Memphis is underrated defensively and my math model projects just 33 points for USF in this game.
The math model favors South Florida by just 11 points even if I give them 1 ½ points for the semi-home field advantage and the situation is strongly in favor of the Tigers. I’ll take Memphis in a 3-Star Best Bet at +11 or more and for 2-Stars at +10 ½ or +10 points. I have no opinion on the total.
Navy 24 Wake Forest (-3.0) 21 (at EagleBank Bowl)
This game is a rare bowl game rematch of a regular season game, a 24-17 Navy win as a 16 ½ point underdog at Wake Forest. Wake Forest quarterback Riley Skinner threw an uncharacteristic 4 interceptions in that game (he threw just 3 total in the other 3 games), but Navy’s win was not a fluke. The Midshipmen averaged 5.5 yards per play in that game and ran for 305 yards at 5.4 yards per rushing play while Wake Forest managed just 4.4 yppl. Wake Forest is a very good defensive team, allowing just 4.7 yppl for the season against teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average opponent, but being good defensively does not mean that a tam is going to be good at defending the option and Wake Forest apparently isn’t very good at defending the option, which is common for an aggressive defense. The Demon Deacons’ aggressive play is usually to their advantage, but discipline is needed to defend the option, which is an offense designed to bridge the gap in talent. Navy’s offense works about the same regardless of the quality of the defense, as evidenced by the fact that they scored between 21 points and 34 points in 10 of their 11 games against Division 1A teams (and won 16-0 in the one game they didn’t reach 21 points). Navy’s option wasn’t as good as it was last year for much of the season, as veteran starting quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada played in just 5 games this season. Kaheaku-Enhada led the attack in Navy’s 34-0 win over Army in the final game of the regular season and he’ll be as healthy as he’s been all season for his final collegiate game. Not only is Kaheaku-Enhada a more efficient passer, but he reads defenses better than Bryant or Dobbs and the option is more effective when he’s at quarterback. Navy averaged 5.2 yards per rushing play against 11 Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 4.7 yprp to an average team (so they were 0.5 yprp better than average), but the Middies were 1.1 yprp better than average in the 5 games that Kaheaku-Enhada played – averaging 5.6 yprp against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team. With Kaheaku-Enhada at the controls I expect Navy to be able to move the ball just as well as they did in their earlier meeting with Wake Forest.
Navy’s only issue this season has been pass defense, as the Midshipmen have allowed 7.4 yards per pass play to a schedule of opposing quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team. Navy, however, did defense mediocre and below average quarterbacks very well and they held 6 of their 11 opponents below their average yards per pass play rating. Navy’s defensive pass stats were skewed by big numbers by good quarterbacks, including 11.6 yppp by Ball State’s Nate Davis, and 10.7 yppp by Temple’s Adam DiMichelle. Wake Forest’s Riley Skinner may not be good enough to take advantage of Navy’s occasional defensive lapses in the secondary, as Skinner averaged just 5.2 yppp this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback, including throwing for a modest 5.8 yppp in their loss to Navy. The Navy defense also got noticeably better down the stretch, as they allowed less than 5 yards per play in 4 of their final 5 games and finished the season with consecutive shutout wins. The Middies are good against the run (4.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp) and Wake Forest is one of the worst running teams in the nation (3.7 yprp against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp), so it will be up to Skinner to carry the load and Navy is much better in pass defense when they don’t have to worry about stopping the run.
My math model favors Navy by 2 points with a total of 47 points with Kaheaku-Enhada at quarterback for the Midshipmen and Military Academies have a tendency to perform very well in bowl games (Army, Navy, and Air Force are a combined 21-7 ATS in bowls since 1980). Navy also tends to travel well, as they are an incredible 112-65-2 ATS in all road or neutral games since 1980, including covering 4 of their final 5 games away from home this season. Wake Forest, meanwhile, is just 10-17 ATS as a favorite under coach Jim Grobe (compared to 20-11 ATS as a dog), including 3-6 ATS laying points this season. In addition to the team trends Navy applies to a very good 39-7 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator and a 29-4-2 ATS statistical indicator. Unfortunately, Wake Forest applies to a 46-18-1 ATS bowl situation that will keep me from making this game a Best Bet.
I’ll consider Navy a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ or more.
Sports Wise Guys
5 Star Picks
Wake Forest -3 over Navy
Fresno State -3 over Colorado State
South Florida -13 over Memphis
Arizona -3 over BYU
Troy -4 over Southern Miss
C JORDON
600 Navy
100 Memphis
100 Ravens/Cowboys Under
Brandon Lang
25-Dime Dallas Cowboys
5-Dime 10-Point Teaser: Navy, Memphis, Arizona
JB Sports
3* Wake Forest (CFB)