CStarssportspicks
2000 Units College Football Bowl Lock Of The Year! Memphis plus the points over South Florida When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Road team - After a conference game - Playing on Saturday - Scored 43 - 50 POINTS FOR in their last game - Scored 7 points or less AGAINST in their last game Memphis 9-2 ATS in this spot. Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
1000 Units Top Play BYU/over the total Over is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 games overall. Over is 7-3 in Cougars last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
1000 Units Top Play Wake Forest minus the points over Navy When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Home team - Last 5 years - Opponent coming off a bye - Playing on Saturday - Scored more than 20 points in back to back games - Coming off a 2 game Home stand Wake Forest 11-2 SU in this spot. When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Home team - After a non conference game - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a 1 ATS win - Coming off a 11-13 point win Wake Forest 8-2 ATS and 10-0 SU in this spot.
1000 Units Colorado State/Fresno State under the total When Colorado State team played as a Home team - Playing on grass surface - Coming off 1 over 4-18 O/U in this spot. When Colorado State team played as a pk to 3 Underdog - Playing on Saturday - Coming off a Win over Mountain West opponent 3-10 O/U in this spot.
50 Units Wake Forest/Navy under the total When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Home team - Vs Non Division Opponent - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a 11-13 point win - Coming off 1 under Wake Forest 2-10 O/U in this spot. When Wake Forest team played as a Home team - Vs Non Division Opponent - Vs Non Conference Opponent 4-20 O/U in this spot.
50 Units Colorado State plus the points over Fresno State When Colorado State team played as a pk to 3 Underdog - Playing on Saturday - Coming off a win on grass 11-1 ATS in this spot
Brand X Sports
Mike Volpe Bowl Package
Eagle Bowl Saturday December 20
Navy Midshipmen versus Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Lone Wake Forest -3.5 Total 41
Navy BEAT Wake this year as seventeen point underdogs and now they are
3.5 point underdogs? As a guy named Bonaparte once said;”Those who ignore
History are condemned to repeat it.”
5* Navy Midshipmen +3 3* Bonus Play on the OVER 41
New Mexico Bowl Saturday December 20
Fresno State Bulldogs versus Colorado State Rams
Line Fresno State -2 Total 61
Fresno had a down year and the line has dropped a full point since this game opened. Fresno is down but not down far enough to lose a bowl game to a mediocre squad like the Rams
5* Fresno State Bulldogs -2
St. Petersburg Bowl Saturday December 20
Memphis Tigers versus South Florida Bulls
Line South Florida -14 Total 52
Maybe this Bowl should be called Former Spring Training Home of the Mets Bowl.
It would be an improvement of St. Petersburg. Anyway South Florida has lost three straight games on the road, two of those three outright losses were as favorites. I may not be the sharpest tool in the shed but even I know, it is VERY hard to cover as a fourteen point favorite if you do not win the game!
3* Memphis Tigers +14
Las Vegas Bowl Saturday December 20
BYU Cougars versus Arizona Wildcats
Line Arizona -3 Total 62
BYU was rolling until they got rolled themselves by Utah in the final game of the regular season. Even with that loss the Cougars finished at 10-2. Arizona was only 7-5 in the weak PAC 10 and has one impressive win, (Arizona State).
Wrong team favored in this one folks
3* BYU Cougars +150
Christian Alexander
Navy at Wake Forest
Play: Wake Forest -3.0
It's rare that two teams square off in a bowl game after playing each other in the regular season, however that's just the case as Wake Forest looks to exact revenge on Navy in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl in Washington, D.C.
Hats off to Wake coach Jim Grobe as the Demon Deacons will be playing in their third consecutive postseason appearance after the 2006 Orange Bowl and ast season's Meineke Car Care Bowl.
Grobe and his troops will no doubt have plenty of motivation in this game because of that aforementioned loss. Navy managed a 24-17 victory at Wake Forest when these two hooked up on September 27, a loss that ended Wake's three-game winning streak to start the season.
Ironically enough, just a week after Wake had forced Florida State into seven turnovers in a Demon Deacons win, the turnover bug bit QB Riley Skinner and Wake paid dearly. Grobe's troops turned the ball over six times, with Skinner tossing a career-high four interceptions. That gave the Middies a 17-0 lead and they were able to hold on despite a Wake rally.
While the Demon Deacons didn't seem to recover from that loss - they lost five of their last nine games - I like them to end their season on a high note against Navy. Not only do you have the revenge factor but Grobe is too good a coach not to have his team ready for the powerful Navy ground attack. Assuming Riley is a little more carfeful with the ball, no reason Wake can't take care of business in this game and cover the number in the process.
Fresno St at Colorado State
Play: Colorado State +3
Fresno has become quite used to playing in a bowl as this will be the program's ninth bowl game since the start of the 1999 season.
That said, coach Pat Hill sure didn't finish this season up strong, dropping three of their last five games including a severe 61-10 woodshed beating at Boise State to end the season. That was the most points the Bulldogs have allowed since a 62-0 defeat at Auburn in 1996.n
So while Fresno might not be in the best frame of mind for this game, we'll back an improving Colorado State program that is happy to be on the bowl scene.
The Rams will be making their first bowl appearance since a 51-30 loss to Navy in the 2005 Poinsettia Bowl. The last time Colorado State won a bowl game they defeated North Texas 45-20 in the 2001 New Orleans Bowl.
I'm impressed by the fact that Colorado State had to win their last two games to become bowl eligible and they accomplished that. I'm also impressed by how this team fared against the "Big 3" in the Mountian West - Utah, TCU and BYU. Those three teams finished a combined 32-4 this season and while the Rams weren't able to notch a victory against that bunch, they did lose two of the games by less than seven points. Those three teams are certainly very comparable to the Boise team that blew out Fresno to end the year.
Look for senior QB Billy Farris to pick apart a Fresno State defense that's giving up over 30 points per game and has only been able to pick off four passes all season long - with two of those coming in the season opener!
Colorado State wins.
Memphis at S. Florida
Play: Under 52.0
No getting around the fact that only once since the month of September has South Florida scored more than 21 points in a game. Sounds crazy, but it's true.
Also no way to ignore that Memphis hasn't beaten a single team all year with a winning record.
So, despite the fact that the Bulls lost five of their last seven games, I don't see any way they lose this game. However, I also don't see any reason to think their offense will explode.
Look for a South Florida defense that ranks 13th in the country, allowing 291.8 yards per game, and ninth against the run (97.7) to clamp down on the Memphis offense while QB Matt Grothe and USF gradually pull away.
South Florida 29 Memphis 16
BYU at Arizona
Play: Arizona -3.0
Strange to see the #17 team in the nation with a 10-2 record playing the underdog role to a 7-5 team but that's what we have with BYU and Arizona.
And it's actually not that strange once you take a look at this matchup. As the total (61.5) would suggest, most expect a lot of points in this one.
QB Max Hall leads a BYU offense that is 19th in the nation in scoring (35.3 points per game) and 17th in total offense (444.8 yards per game). Arizona will counter with senior quarterback Willie Tuitama who leads a Wildcats attach that is 16th in the nation in scoring (37.1).
The big difference I see between these two is on defense and in that case, advantage Arizona. The Wildcats are 20th in the nation in total defense (302.1) and should be able to at least slow down the Cougars attack.
I also don't like how BYU lost by 25 and 24 points to the two best teams they played. (Utah & TCU) At least when Arizona played stud teams like Southern Cal they were competitive (17-10 L).
Arizona is happy to be in this bowl game while frankly BYU is not that excited about making their fourth straight appearance in Las Vegas.
Arizona by 7.
Kelso
20 units Cowboys
JEFFERSONSPORTS
BYU +3.5
Youngstown Connection
Navy +3
BEN BURNS
I'm laying the points with DALLAS. I won with the Cowboys in last week's win over the Giants and I feel that this is an excellent spot to back them again. Coming off a devastating and demoralizing loss at Pittsburgh, the Cowboys faced a must-win situation vs. the defending Super Bowl Champs last week. It would have been very easy for them to hang their heads and a lot of teams would have done so. However, the Cowboys showed some real character, going about their business like professionals. The defense was dominant, limiting the Giants to a mere 218 total yards (Dallas had 325) and just eight points, two of them on a safety. The offense did enough. Romo bounced back from a bad game at Pittsburgh to go 20 of 30 with for 244 yards and two touchdowns. While Dallas is off that momentum-building win, now it's Baltimore's turn to be the team which needs to bounce back from a devastating loss to the Steelers. I believe that will prove to be easier said than done. The Cowboys at least got to play at home, after their emotional loss vs. Pittsburgh, getting morale support from their fans. The Ravens have to do it alone on the road. Flacco has enjoyed a great first season. However, he's still a rookie and this is the biggest game of his life. Note that he was an ugly 11-of-28 for 115 yards and two interceptions last week. Facing a Dallas defense that is playing at an extremely high level, I expect him to struggle for the second straight week. Note that the Cowboys have 20 sacks over their past three games and that they lead the league with 53. The Ravens, 2-6 ATS the last eight times they were coming off a division loss, are 0-7 SU/ATS the last seven times that they've played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 38.5 to 42. Their struggles against quality teams on the road were evident in a 30-10 loss at New York and a 31-3 beating at Indianapolis. The Cowboys were 2-0 SU/ATS when playing a home game with a total ranging from 38.5 to 42. Looking back further and we find the Cowboys at a profitable 25-16-2 ATS their last 43 home games with a total in that range. They're getting healthy and I believe they're the stronger team. Look for them to build momentum off last week's big win and close out Texas Stadium with a big win and cover. *Non-Conf GOY
I'm laying the points with WAKE FOREST. I waited to pull the trigger on this game, as I felt the line might come down. It has now done so at many books and I feel that we're getting excellent value with what I expect to prove to be a superior Wake Forest squad. Teams don't often get to face each other twice in the same season but that's the case for this year's first bowl game. Navy won 24-17 when these teams met back in September. While the Midshipmen will obviously be hungry to earn a bowl victory, the earlier loss should ensure that we also see an extremely motivated effort from the Demon Deacons, who otherwise may have been somewhat disappointed to be playing in lesser bowl game. Additionally, I feel that the experience of having already faced Navy's unique offense, coupled with the extra time which they've had to prepare for it, will prove to be a major benefit for this afternoon's rematch. The Deacons are a very experienced team and their seniors feel that they've got a point to prove in their final game. As cornerback Alphonso Smith said: "It's a great opportunity. We played them earlier this year in which we lost a game we thought we could have won. We didn't play as well, we didn’t play Wake Forest football." While the Midshipmen were 1-3 SU/ATS as road underdogs of four points or less this season, the Deacons have gone 5-1 SU/ATS as favorites of four points or less since the beginning of the 2007 season. Look for them to improve on those stats with a solid win and cover here. *Annihilator
I'm laying the small number with ARIZONA. Most teams would be thrilled to have gone 10-2 during the regular season. However, the Cougars had dreams of going undefeated, so their season has actually been a disappointment. Their two biggest games of the year came against Utah and TCU and they lost those by a combined score of 80-31, most recently a 48-24 loss at Utah in their regular season finale. While a bowl victory would certainly lessen the sting a little, most will still regard the season as a disappointment, no matter what happens this evening. Teams in that situation often have trouble in their bowl game, as the extra few weeks of practice time merely extends their disappointment. While the Cougars are most likely somewhat disappointed, after not having played in a bowl game in a decade, the Wildcats should be thrilled to be here. The Wildcats are healthy and have steadily improved as the season finished. While BYU was blown out in its final regular season game, Arizona blew out Arizona State in its final game. I believe that positive momentum will have served the Wildcats well during the last few weeks of practice. As coach Stoops said: "You always want to go into a bowl game with momentum. I think we accomplished that. We are moving forward as a program." Both teams have excellent quarterbacks and both bring similar stats to the table. Arizona averaged 37.1 points (37.2 on the road) while BYU averaged 35.3 (29.3 on the road) points. BYU allowed 21.2 points (31.2 on the road) and 350.7 yards. Arizona allowed 21.3 points but only 302.1 yards. The Wildcats have been strong under Stoops in recent seasons when having had extra time to prepare. They're 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they played a game after having had two or more weeks rest in between games. Looking back further and we find the Wildcats at 17-8 SU and 16-9 ATS the last 25 times that they were in that situation. I expect them to be the hungrier team and for that to lead to a win and cover. *Main Event
I'm playing on Memphis and South Florida to finish UNDER the number. This total has climbed a few points from its opening number and has gotten to the point where I now feel we're getting excellent value with the UNDER. Memphis has been solid offensively, averaging a respectable 28.2 points per game. However, the Tigers haven't been nearly as good offensively on the road, averaging only 22.8 points. Additionally, they haven't faced too many defenses in the class of the one that they'll see this afternoon. South Florida comes in allowing 20.5 points and 291 yards per game, including just 17.3 and 279 away from home. The Bulls have been particularly stingy against the run as they rank in the Top 10 in the country, allowing just 97.7 yards per game on an average of only 2.9 yards per carry. While Tigers' defense has been rather mediocre (26 points per game) for the season as a whole, they were much better on that side of the ball down the stretch. In their last game, they held Tulane to only six points and 222 total yards and over their last three games, they've held opponents to an average of just 255 total yards. Note that the Tigers have seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 point range. Look for more of the same this afternoon as the UNDER moves to 4-0 the last four times that the Bulls played on turf. *Total of the Week
DOC
4 Unit Play.Take Dallas over Baltimore
The Ravens are coming off an emotional game last Sunday against Pittsburgh in which they dominated for 59 minutes only to come up short in the end. The Cowboys are playing outstanding defense and expect them to pressure young Flacco for 60 minutes and force him into a couple of key turnovers. The Ravens are just 2-5 ATS as a non-divisional underdog and Dallas will close out Texas Stadium in style with an impressive victory. The Ravens got killed in their other NFC road game, 30-10 against the NY Giants, a team that Dallas beat last week. Both teams need this victory but Dallas has much more balance and that will be the difference on Saturday night.
3 Unit Play.Take Under in Fresno State vs. Colorado State
Both teams have had lackluster seasons and are lucky to be in a bowl game. We expect this to be a close game throughout and thus we will not worry about who comes out on top and just collect with the under. The Bulldogs have not reached thirty points in their last four games averaging just 21 ½ points per game in those contests. The Rams averaged just 24 points per game for the season and I fully expect this one to be played in the twenties as we will collect with whomever comes out on top.
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on South Florida (CFB) and a 3* amount on the first half line – AiS shows an 80% probability that South Florida will win this game by 14 or more points. SF had a somewhat disappointing 7-5 season and Memphis was 6-6. The big difference in the records is that SF played a significantly tougher schedule than Memphis. That experience will serve them well in a bowl game the program really wants to win impressively for recruiting purposes. AiS shows a 90% probability that SF will gain a minimum of 6 yards per play in this game. Note that SF is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992; 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. AiS also shows an 88% probability that SF will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that SF is an impressive 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Memphis is in a series of poor situational roles for this game noting they are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after a win by 28 or more points since 1992; 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992. Even the coaches come into this game on opposite polar extremes as shown by these angles. Memphis HC West is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game while SF HC Leavitt is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game. Supporting the 3* graded play on the first half line is a solid system that has gone 26-6 for 81% since 1992. Play against neutral field dogs versus the 1rst half line that are good rushing teams gaining 190 to 230 RY/game and is now facing an average rushing team gaining 140-190 RY/game and in non-conference games. In summary, place a 7* amount on the betting line with SF and a 3* amount on the 1st half line also with SF.
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Arizona (CFB) – AiS shows an 82% probability that Arizona will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a 76% winning money line system that has gone 37-12 since 2002. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 that are an average rushing team gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and is facing a team with an average rushing D allowing 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. BYU finds itself in several poor roles for this matchup noting they are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after the first month of the season this season; 4-20 ATS (-18.0 Units) after a 2 game road trip since 1992. Although the Pac-10 was weaker this season in terms of its’ depth than in recent years, Arizona had a far tougher schedule than BYU. I always go back to the beginning fo the year when Tennessee was a potential contender for the SEC Title and lost to UCLA. Then the following week UCLA suffered it’s biggest loss since 1929 when they were shutout by NYU 59-0. Then, BYU struggled against several inferior opponents in UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State, and in their last game they were trounced by Utah. That Utah game was fairly close going in to the final quarter until Utah had just worn the BYU defensive down to literally no resistance. Arizona is just 2-3 over the past 5 games, but one of those losses was a 17-10 defeat to USC. They then had to play Oregon where they lost by 10 as a 6 point dog and then had to come home to face then Pac-10 leader Oregon State and lost by 2. Point is simple, Arizona is a seasoned team and they have a superior coach in Stoops. The average PR differential between the two teams schedules is a significant 8 points. Tougher opponents make for well prepared and IMPROVED teams come bowl season most of the time. Remember though that we are making these plays based on the AiS grading and that the supplemental cast of systems, angles, and game analysis serve only to reinforce the graded play.Take Arizona.
Apeche
7* Dallas
24* Dallas over
9* Navy
15* Colorado St
14* Memphis
10* Memphis over
19* Arizona
9* Arizona over
BIG AL
EARLY RELEASE
1* Navy
1* BYU
LeRoy's "Money Talks" Handicapping Tournament
Ken "The Shrink" Weitzner's Selections
New York Giants - 3 over Carolina Panthers
Washington Redskins + 5 1/2 over Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona & BYU UNDER 60
Navy & Wake Forest OVER 43
Kansas City Chiefs + 4 over Miami Dolphins
Green Bay Packers + 4 over Chicago Bears
BEST BET -- U of Arizona - 3 1/2 over BYU
"Fat Jack" Ross' Selections
Carolina Panthers + 3 over New York Giants
Atlanta Flacons + 3 1/2 over Minnesota Vikings
San Francisco 49ers - 5 over St Louis Rams
Colorado State + 2 1/2 over Fresno State
Buffalo Bills + 6 1/2 over Denver Broncos
U of Arizona - 3 1/2 over BYU
BEST BET -- San Diego Chargers + 3 1/2 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Alatex
Superplay Wake Forest
Sixth Sense
1% NAVY +3
1% TROY –4.5
1% FLORIDA ATLANTIC +6
PRO INFO SPORTS
3 STAR SELECTION (3% of Bankroll)
Wake Forest -2½ over Navy
The 2008-2009 college football bowl season kicks off early on Saturday, as the Demon Deacons and Midshipmen collide on the gridiron for the 2nd time this year.
Earlier this season, Navy snapped a four-game losing skid against Wake Forest with a 24-17 victory. Wake Forest's season began with three straight wins, including a hard-fought 12-3 win over Florida State on the road. However, the team stumbled after the quick start, losing to the Middies and then 2 of its next 3 games. The Deacons were able to close out the regular season with a 23-10 victory over Vanderbilt, and with a win here, it would be the third straight season with eight wins for Wake Forest.
As for Navy, they lost two of their first three games this year, but rebounded with three consecutive wins, including the victory over Wake Forest. After a 21-point loss to Pittsburgh, the Midshipmen closed out their regular season with four wins in their final five contests, and that includes two consecutive shutout victories over Northern Illinois and Army.
Inconsistency plagued the Demon Deacons offense this year, as the team averaged just 300 total ypg, leading to 20 ppg. The ground game was extremely ineffective, as the team finished with just 111.6 ypg. QB Riley Skinner did complete 63% of his throws for over 2,000 yards with 12 scores against seven interceptions.
Wake was clearly carried by their defensive unit this season, which limited the opposition to just 18 ppg. and less than 300 total ypg. Wake Forest did a sensational job against the run, finishing 21st in the nation, holding teams to just 114 ypg on 3.3 ypc. The defensive unit also made plenty of big plays, forcing 35 turnovers on the year, while collecting 24 sacks.
The Deacons will certainly get tested here, as Navy lead the nation in rushing. The Midshipmen finished the regular season averaging nearly 300 ypg on the ground, leading to a healthy 28 ppg. Shun White has been the main option out of the backfield, as the tailback led the team with 1,021 yards and eight scores on the year. Eric Kettani contributed 932 yards and four touchdowns on the season, while Ricky Dobbs found the end zone eight times to go along with 493 yards in just seven games. Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada has been a real threat in his tenure in Annapolis, but the signal caller suffered an injury early in the year, and participated in only five games. Kaheaku-Enhada led the way for Navy in the season- finale win over Army, and will likely be on the field against Wake Forest Saturday.
The Midshipmen have not been strong defensively despite the recent shutouts, but the unit has done enough to help the team rack up victories. Navy is currently surrendered over 340 total ypg, and that has led to about 22 ppg. The team has forced 29 turnovers on the season, but the unit has struggled to pressure the quarterback, racking up just 17 sacks. The defense has also allowed opponents to convert on 47 percent of their third down attempts, and 75 percent of their red zone chances.
The Midshipmen got the better of Wake Forest earlier in the season on the road, but the Demon Deacons have improved dramatically since and they’re looking forward to this rematch. It isn't often a college football team gets an opportunity to avenge a loss in the same season, but Wake has been provided this chance and look to make the most of it. Turnovers were the culprit against Navy. Riley Skinner threw four interceptions — he would have only three more picks the rest of the season — and Navy enjoyed a 6-2 advantage in turnovers. The Deacs were in a 17-0 hole before the end of the first half, and could not contain the Mid option, in particular bruising FB Eric Kettani, who rumbled for 175 YR. Navy eventually held on despite losing QB Kaipo-Noa Keahaku-Enhada to a hamstring injury before halftime.
We don't see the dynamics being the same for this rematch. By simply keeping better care of the ball, Wake is unlikely to dig itself another hole and allow Navy to rigidly adhere to its chain-moving option strategy. Skinner rarely self-destructs as he did back in that September loss. A healthier TB Josh Adams and emerging RS frosh RB Brandon Pendergrass should aid the Deacs' ability to establish their own offensive attack. And though we have a lot of respect for Navy's trademark spunk, we don't see Wake head coach Jim Grobe slipping twice in the same year vs. the Middies.
"If you're a quarterback, and you've had that kind of game, the worst game of your career, you'd be crazy if you didn't want another shot at them," QB Skinner said. "As much as I hate watching the film the last two weeks, over and over again, it kind of gives you a little motivation and urgency to get back out there and go play these guys again, and kind of prove something and get a little revenge.
"That's obviously, from my standpoint, what I'd like to do," he added. "Just knowing that you were pretty much the reason for that loss is pretty tough on you, but it's also motivating."
"It's a great opportunity. We played them earlier this year in which we lost a game we thought we could have won," Wake Forest cornerback Alphonso Smith said. "We didn't play as well, we didn't play Wake Forest football."
We often look to play ON a good team looking to avenge an embarrassing loss. A proud squad that looked awful in a loss will be determined to show the opponent and the world that the previous meeting’s outcome was a fluke and that they are the better team. Meanwhile, their foe is likely to be a little over-confident and/or not bring the same level of motivation as before. Wake Forest is 3-0 SU & ATS since last season as a favorite playing with revenge.
As it turns out, bowl teams that were heavily favored in a previous meeting have taken care of business when not rusty or heavily favored in the rematches. This is confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:
Play ON a Bowl team (not a favorite of 7+ points) with less than 29 days rest favored by 10+ points in the previous matchup.
Since at least 1980, these teams are 10-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs per game on average.
We’ve also discovered a small but very strong situation in which very small Bowl favorites have been under-valued coming off a win that snapped a losing streak. Specifically, Bowl favorites of 3 points or less off a SU win in its last game (not as an underdog of 23+ points) and 2 SU losses before that are 7-0 ATS since at least 1980, blasting the spread by more than 18 points per game on average! Every cover has been more than a TD.
As soon as it became clear Navy would be in this Bowl Game, the wait began for an opponent from the ACC. When talk started that it just might be Wake Forest, Navy made it clear it had no interest in playing the Demon Deacons again. Like it or not, Wake Forest is coming to Washington for the first game of this bowl season. There was just no way around Navy-Wake II.
Time off is probably not what the Midshipmen needed, either, stopping their roll, as they are 0-3 ATS with 2 weeks off and not playing Army.
Despite shutting out their last opponents, Bowl underdogs and small favorites have fallen flat. In another situation that has few qualifying games but has been very strong, Bowl teams not favored by more than 2 points off a shutout SU win scoring 22+ points are 0-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 18 ppg.
In a related Bowl POWER SYSTEM:
Play AGAINST a Bowl team (not a favorite of more than 6 points or underdog of more than 7 points) with less than 48 days rest off allowing less than a total of 12 points in its last 2 games vs. an opponent not off 2 favorite SU wins & ATS wins of more than 6 points.
These teams that were so “hot” defensively got cooled off in their Bowl Games, going 0-20 ATS since at least 1980, failing to cover the spread by nearly 17 ppg on average! How did their defense fare in the Bowl Games? Only 1 of the last 11 qualifying teams played well on defense, although they still failed to cover the number. The other 10 most-recent qualifying teams have given up 48, 42, 34, 39, 41, 26, 30, 27, 55, and 31 points!
Navy's option attack and sound defense give it a chance to win every time it takes the field, but look for Wake Forest to avenge its loss to the Midshipmen for two reasons.
The first is Skinner. Look for Skinner to do a far better job of taking care of the football than he did when these two teams met in September. He'll also extend drives with his feet as well as his arm.
The second reason is the Demon Deacons have had far more time to prepare for the option than they did the first time around, so they are less prone to making mistakes. Just as importantly, they have the talent and experience on the defensive side of the ball to take advantage of this edge.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WAKE FOREST 34 NAVY 24