IndianCowboy
Navy Midshipmen @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons
3 units Navy Midshipmen +3
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
3 units Over 39.5
RON RAYMOND
NAVY VS. WAKE FOREST WINNER!
Pick Navy +3
FRESNO STATE VS. COLORADO STATE WINNER!
Pick Fresno State -2.5
BYU VS. ARIZONA WINNER!
Pick BYU +3.5
5* BALTIMORE VS. DALLAS WINNER! (20-2 ANGLE)
Pick Dallas Cowboys -4.5
ATS Lock Club
4 units Wake -4
4 units Dallas -4
Gold Medal Club
CBB
Texas A@M (HUGE)
Gonzaga (HUGE)
Eastern Michigan (Reg)
Drake (Reg)
Jeff Benton
25 Dime: COWBOYS (minus the points vs. Ravens) ... NOTE: If this number is sitting at 4 1/2, I want you to buy the hook and only lay 4, which can be a key number in the NFL.
10 Dime: BYU (plus the points vs. Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl)
5 Dime: GONZAGA (minus the points vs. UConn in College Hoops)
Cowboys
I don’t want to take anything away from the Ravens, who have way overachieved this season after a dismal 2007 and who seem to be heading in the right direction now that they have a legitimate QB in Joe Flacco to go with their devastating defense. But Baltimore is way out of its league in this game at Dallas, which is just as good as the Ravens on defense and – with all due respect to Mr. Flacco – vastly superior on offense.
The Cowboys come into this game on a 4-1 SU and ATS run, and if not for some terrible fourth-quarter conservative play-calling – and one horrific throw by Tony Romo – Dallas would’ve won at Pittsburgh two weeks ago and would be on a 5-0 SU and ATS surge. Last week, the Cowboys manhandled the defending Super Bowl champion Giants 20-8 as a three-point home favorite, finishing with a 321-218 edge in total offense. The defense bludgeoned Eli Manning all night, sacking him eight times – and remember, New York has one of the best offensive lines in football – and picking him off twice. Manning needed 35 pass attempts to complete 18 throws for just 191 yards – which equates to 5.5 yards per pass attempt, pretty bad when 7 yards per attempt is considered average.
If you take away Romo’s pick-six vs. the Steelers and his safety last week against New York (which shouldn’t count against the defense’s stats), the Cowboys’ D has surrendered just one touchdown and four field goals in the last three games versus the Giants, Steelers and Seahawks. During this three-game stretch, Dallas also has allowed only 259.3 total yards per game, and over the last five games, the Cowboys have given up an average of just 13.8 ppg while outgaining all five opponents by 87, 104, 125, 51 and 103 yards.
Now, obviously, Baltimore’s defense has been impressive, too. The Ravens have allowed just three touchdowns and 33 total points in their last four games, going 3-1 SU and ATS. However, three of those were played at home, and the other was at the Bengals. Aside from beating Cincy and losing last week to Pittsburgh, the Ravens roughed up the Redskins (who are clearly on the decline) and the Eagles (the game where McNabb fell apart and got benched).
The last time the Ravens went on the road and faced a quality team? They got smoked 30-10 at the Giants on Nov. 16. In fact, Baltimore’s three toughest road games of the season – at Pittsburgh, at Indianapolis and at the Giants – were all losses. The offense produced a total of just 33 points and three touchdowns in those three defeats and the defense gave up 23, 31 and 30 points. Here’s what I’m getting at: While Baltimore’s 9-5 record is solid, it has lost its four toughest contests (including the Steelers twice), and in three of those, the Ravens’ defense got exposed.
Tonight, I think they get exposed again. For one thing, Romo is just the type of mobile QB that gives Baltimore the most trouble. Also, in speedy RB Tashard Choice, the Cowboys have a new explosive weapon, and he can be especially dangerous against a gambling, over-pursuing defense like Baltimore’s. Meanwhile, I just do not see Flacco and the Ravens’ offense moving the football on the Cowboys’ D, no way. The rookie has passed for more than 185 yards just once in his last six games, his QB rating is down to 76.9, he now has 12 INTs to go with 13 TD passes, and he’s averaging just 6.64 yards per pass attempt (by comparison, Romo is averaging 8.21 yards per attempt, and he has 24 TD passes and 11 INTs in only 11 games).
With last week’s win over the Giants, the Cowboys are now 6-1 at home this season, with their last three victories at Texas Stadium being double-digit blowouts by an average of 16.7 ppg. And with Romo under center, Dallas has won four straight at home by nine points or more. Meanwhile, the Ravens are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games when catching more than four points and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 as a road underdog in that same price range.
Bottom line: As long as Romo protects the football, this one should not even be close at all. In fact, with the way the Dallas D and Flacco are playing right now, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Cowboys’ defense outscores Baltimore’s offense. Lay the points.
BYU
Can somebody please explain this pointspread to me? Isn’t BYU 10-2 on the season, with victories over two Pac-10 schools (Washington on the road, UCLA at home)? Isn’t Arizona just 7-5, including an eight-point loss to Mountain West Conference foe New Mexico (a team BYU hammered 21-3)? Didn’t the Mountain West go 6-1 SU against the Pac-10 this year? Isn’t this BYU’s fourth straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl, and Arizona’s first bowl appearance in a decade? Didn’t BYU handle Arizona rather easily last year, a 20-7 home win as a 3½-point favorite? And lastly, didn’t it snow like six inches in Las Vegas this week and aren’t temperatures in Sin City for this game tonight going to be in the 30s? Wouldn’t you think those conditions would favor a team from Utah (BYU) over a team from the desert (Arizona)?
Honestly, I can’t quite fathom how and why the Wildcats are favored in this football game. Yes, BYU’s two losses came against its two toughest opponents in Utah (48-28) and TCU (32-7). But Utah is ranked 7th in the nation and TCU is ranked 11th. Trust me, Arizona ain’t anywhere near as good as TCU or Utah. And not to make excuses, because there’s no excuse for the Cougars to lose those two games by a combined 45 points, but both of those contests were true road games. Tonight in Las Vegas, BYU will have a virtual home game. Not only are the familiar with the venue (playing UNLV there every other year, plus the three previous Vegas Bowl experiences), but there’s a massive Mormon/BYU population in Las Vegas (sounds odd, I know, but it’s a fact). The Cougars will have about a 4-1 edge in terms of fan support.
As for the Xs and Os on the field, sorry, but BYU is better. It has averaged 39.3 ppg in its 10 wins, scoring at least 34 points in eight of those contests. And while the Cougars’ defense leaked late in the season (24 points or more allowed in five of their last six), they did have a four-game stretch when they allowed just 17 total points, including consecutive shutouts over UCLA (59-0) and Wyoming (44-0). And while I do respect the Wildcats’ offense (37 ppg average), it’s not exactly unstoppable, as Oregon State (17 points), USC (10) and Stanford (23) all contained Arizona.
In the end, I’ll side with the team that has the much better record, more bowl experience, a big crowd advantage, a better QB (Max Hall is superior to Willie Tuitama), faced better competition and is 6-1 in its last seven games versus the Pac-10. Take the points with BYU.
Gonzaga
I love Gonzaga for no other reason than the fact Mark Few takes the same approach to his non-conference schedule as Fresno State football coach Pat Hill does, that being “We’ll play anyone, anywhere, anytime.” Already this year, the Zags have played neutral-site games against Oklahoma State, Maryland, Tennessee and Indiana, as well as road games at Washington State and Arizona – all in succession! And up until Sunday’s 69-64 loss at Arizona, Gonzaga was undefeated (and you can certainly blame the road-weary Zags for running out of gas against Arizona).
On the flip side, you’ve got UConn’s Jim Calhoun, who every single year schedules creampuff after creampuff prior to the start of the grueling Big East campaign. This season has been no exception, as the Huskies’ lineup of opponents includes Western Carolina, Hartford, La Salle, Bryant, Delaware State, Buffalo and Stony Brook. Now, the Huskies do own double-digit neutral-site wins over Miami, Florida and Wisconsin, and while they get credit for that, the fact is that Wisconsin is in a down cycle this season and the Hurricanes in my opinion are wildly overrated. Also, those two impressive wins are kind of offset by the fact that UConn struggled to beat La Salle 89-81 (which is 4-4 on the season) and barely held off Buffalo 68-64 in its only true road game.
The point is that, because of its grueling non-conference schedule, I absolutely believe that Gonzaga – which is a bona fide Final Four contender – is MUCH more prepared to face a quality opponent like UConn. On the other hand, the Huskies today are going to face by far the best team they’ve seen thus far, and while they’re a talented squad with big man Hasheem Thabeet leading the way, I seriously doubt they’re ready for what’s about to hit them. Just as they weren’t ready for Gonzaga last year when the Bulldogs beat UConn 85-82 as a 5½-point underdog on a neutral floor in Boston.
Also, even though this is also technically a neutral-site game, that’s really not the case. Gonzaga will be trekking from Spokane, Washington, to Seattle and will absolutely have the home-court edge. And while Gonzaga has cashed in four straight games against the Big East, the Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams from the West Coast Conference (including last year’s NCAA Tournament opening-round upset loss to San Diego). UConn also is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 neutral-site games and 5-13 ATS in its last 18 non-conference contests. There’s a reason the Zags are favored today: They’re a better all-around team, and they’ll take care of business against UConn for the second consecutive year.
T.Covers
Fresno State/Colorado Over 60
ATS Financial
3 units Dallas/ Baltimore UNDER 39 1/2
3 units Memphis +11 1/2
Larry Ness
Daytime Dominator
Izzo has taken the Spartans to 11 straight NCAA tourneys and last year reached the Sweet 16, finishing with 27 wins. Rick Barnes has been consistently excellent at Texas, leading the Longhorns to 30 wins three years ago, won 25 games two years ago with player-of-the-year Kevin Durant and then last year (with Durant off to the NBA after one season), won 31 games before losing in the Elite 8 to Memphis. Michigan State (7-2) is facing Texas (9-1) for a third straight season, with the Spartans having won 63-61 in 2006 and 78-72 last year. Gone from LY's MSU team is PG Neitzel (13.9-4.0 APG) plus one-half of the team's 6-10 duo inside, Naymick (4.3-4.1). MSU's perimeter game is in good shape, with three freshman from LY, all stepping up as sophomores, plus senior Walton (6.8-2.7-3.0). Starting alongside of Walton is Lucas (11.0-6.8 APG), with Allen (12.1) and Summers (8.8) making big contributions as well. The 6-10 Suton has been sidelined for a good portion of the early going (missed all of five straight games) and his average is down from 9.1-8.2 to 4.3-4.3 in his limited playing time. The 6-11 Ibok has been starting but contributing almost nothing The 6-8 Raymar (16.9-4.9) is once again the team's leading scorer and best player and is joined in the starting frontcourt by 6-8 freshman, Roe (6.2-5.6). The 6-8 Gray (6.2-4.9) is a senior and he gives MSU decent size and depth inside. MSU is deeper than Texas but the Longhorns' starting-five is more talented. I sold Texas short vs Villanova at MSG earlier TY and paid for it, as Texas won, 67-58. They surely miss DJ Augustin but Abrams (20.9) is having an excellent year and backcourt partner Mason (7.8-4.4-5.6) is doing a little bit of everything. The 6-7 Mason (14.0-7.8) is best described as a 'beast' inside plus he joined by the 6-7 Johnson (8.4-6.4), who is now full speed after some health issues as a freshman, plus two 6-10 players. Atchley's numbers are down from 9.5-5.3 to 6.8-3.6 but he offers a unique combo, as he can block shots and make the three! While Atchley's numbers are down, Pittman is picking up the slack, as the big man who averaged only 2.8-2.4 last season, is up to averages of 8.6-4.0 TY. This game is in Houston not Austin but it's still a Texas venue (Toyota Center is the 'home' of the Rockets) and the Longhorns are playing with "double revenge." MSU was outclassed in its lone meeting this year with a ranked team, losing to No. 1 North Carolina 98-63 on Dec 3 in Detroit during the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. In late November in a tourney in Orlando, the Spartans could get no closer than 15 points in the final five minutes of an 80-62 loss to Maryland, before then beating Oklahoma St, a team well known for its poor play away from Stillwater. Meanwhile, Texas owns that impressive win over then-unbeaten Villanova back on Dec 9, five days after beating UCLA 68-64 on Dec 4 in Austin. The Longhorns' lone loss this year came by just one point to then-No. 8 Notre Dame on Nov 25, in the finals of the Maui Invitational. Expect Texas to take "two years of frustration" out on the Spartans in this one.
Daytime Dominator 15* Texas.
20* Revenge G.O.M
Keno Davis, Dr Tom's little boy, took over for his dad at Drake last year and went 28-5, leading the Bulldogs to their first NCAA appearance since 1971. Keno "knows how the game is played" (he's surely not 'old school' like his dad) and used LY's 'magical run' to 'escape' Des Moines, for the 'greener pastures' of the Big East, taking over at tradition-rich Providence (if you've never heard of Jimmy Walker, Ernie D and "Bad News" Barnes, you are too young!). The Friars are an extremely deep team and enter this game 7-3. Sharoud Curry (15.3 two years ago) played just eight minutes last year, losing the season to a stress fracture in his foot. He's back healthy TY and while his scoring is way down (7.9-4.9 APG) his return is a big deal. Curry is typically joined in the starting lineup by the 6-4 McKenzie (6.0) and the 6-5 Efejuku (13.7-4.0) on the perimeter and the multi-talented 6-7 McDermott (8.2-8.0) and the 6-8 Kale (12.2-5.6) inside. However, lots of players get "in the act," most notably guards Brooks (13.1-4.0) and Xavier (9.2) plus the 6-11 Hanke (8.3-4.9). BC has opened 8-2, as it looks to bounce back from a 14-17 season, its first losing record since 2000. The Eagles had two excellent years after joining the ACC, winning 28 games in their first year in and 21 two years ago, while making the school's fourth straight NCAA appearance. BC is led by guard Rice (15.2-3.4-5.6) although his scoring is down from 21.0 last year. Two 6-5 players are having solid seasons, Raji (12.2-6.3) and Sanders (11.2-4.9) plus 6-8 Vermont transfer Trapani (13.5-7.0) has become the team's best inside player. The 6-10 Southern (5.6-6.1) is making excellent strides as a sophomore and freshman guard Jackson (6.9) is becoming a regular contributor. The Eagles lost at St Louis 53-50 and then to ranked Purdue in the NIT semis, 71-64. BC bounced back in the consolation game to beat a good UAB team (83-77) and takes a 9-2 mark into this game, having won five straight. Meanwhile, the Friars lost two of three games in an Anaheim tourney in late November, beating Charlotte but losing to both Baylor and St Mary's These teams meet last year at Boston's Banknorth Garden, with Providence coming away with a 98-89 win. The Friars made 12-of-23 three-pointers in that game but with the longer line this year, Providence has gone from making 37.6 percent of its threes LY to 28.3 TY. It's also worth noting that this is Providence's lone road game from Dec 3 all the way to Jan 7 at Cincinnati. Keno's dad used to coach at BC and Al Skinner, BC's highly successful current coach, may just remind him of that as the Eagles "put a whipping" on the Friars, gaining some sweet revenge from LY's loss in Boston.
Revenge Game of the Month 20* Boston College.
Bailout Blowout
New Mex St won 25 games and made an NCAA appearance two years ago and head coach Reggie Theus used that season as a 'springboard' to get an NBA head coaching gig with the Kings (I wonder how that worked out for ol' Reg?). The Aggies won 21 games last year but lost four senior starters from that team, who combined to average 45.4 PPG and 24.2 RPG. The team also lost LY's highly-touted (and troubled) 6-8 freshman Herb Pope (11.1-6.8), who transferred to Seton Hall. Gibson (12.2 LY) is the lone returning starter from LY and he's averaging 16.0 PPG this year, teaming in the backcourt with Young, who averaged 10.5 PPG as a freshman but is averaging 16.8-3.8-3.3 to open this year. Laroche (5.0), Castillo 93.4) and 6-6 swingman Lumpkins (4.6) give the perimeter depth. Inside, two freshman, the 6-8 Gillenwater (14.8-4.7) and the 7-0 Rahman (6.1-4.7) are joined by 6-6 sophomore McKines (13.7-8.7). As for UTEP, the Miners have two terrific perimeter players in 6-5 senior Jackson (22.6-6.7) and sophomore guard Culpepper, who is averaging 20.6 PPG (up from 12.8 LY as a freshman). PG Stone (5.4-4.1-6.2) completes an excellent three-guard rotation, with 7-0 Memphis transfer Cooper (6.8-4.9) and the 6-7 Moultrie (9.4-7.2) adding more than enough size and muscle to contend with the Aggies' frontline. Throw in the 6-11 Britten (4.9-2.6) and third-year head coach Tony Barbee's team is more than capable of avenging last Sunday's 90-79 loss to the aggies in Las Cruses. The Aggies shot 54.9 percent in that game while the Miners made only 42.6 percent. More importantly, New Mex St had 37 FT attempts (made 29), with the Miners getting only 18 (made 12). Expect a "reversal of those fortunes" here in El Paso. New Mex St has yet to win away from home, opening 0-4 SU in road games this year. While the Miners are off to a disappointing 5-4 start, I was "all over" them in the team's 96-78 win this past Wednesday at home over Texas Tech. Jackson had 28 and Culpepper had 27 in that win and here's how I closed the write-up to that game. "A win here (meaning vs TT) and another "revenge win" this Saturday in El Paso vs New Mex St (lost last Sunday to the Aggies 90-78 in Las Cruces) could jump start this season. Barbee won only 14 games in his first season at UTEP but went 19-14 last year. UTEP was only able to garner a CBI bid last year but this year's aspirations are much higher. I believe this team is capable of 20-plus wins (easily) and an NIT bid should be a 'lock,' while NCAA 'bubble' consideration is a possibility. If I'm right, an impressive win tonight is in the cards." I was "right on the money" with that call (UTEP won 96-78) and I expect it to be deja vu all over again, tonight.
Bailout Game of the Month 15* UTEP.
AAA Sports
3* College Football Heavy Hitter
Memphis vs. South Florida
Pick: Under 54.5
I am going to be very brief as I write this very late Friday evening and actually very early Saturday morning. Memphis, who has been able to score some points this year, is not going to have the same success against these guys. The Bulls have one of the best D's in the land and have proved that a lot. They gave up just 13 at West Va in their last game, just 13 to UConn prior to that. Rutgers had their way with them on the scoreboard, but that was mostly because of turnovers. They have extreme quickness and they are going to make it very difficult for the Tigers to move the ball effectively. The Tigers last 4 games have been with Tulane, Central Florida, SMU and Southern Miss. That is not the who's who of college football. They have had other success verses lessor schools but they have not faced a school of this caliber yet. The Bulls have scored 20 or fewer points in their last 5 games. They control the clock and they have a ball control offense. This number has risen from an opening of 51. I think not for good reason and I do know that there is a trend of early College Bowls going Over. This one does not.
KB Hoops
College Football
5* Memphis +11.5 **POD**
3* Navy +3
3* Col State +3
College Hoops
5* Cornell -2
5* Purdue -5
5* Miami Oh +8
4* Xavier +6
LPW SPORTS FORECAST
25 Unit Special Situation (12-9 YTD)
Baltimore over Dallas
The Booooj
EagleBank Bowl
RFK Stadium, Washington DC
5 units on Wake Forest -3 over Navy
Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Navy (8-4)- Navy stopped Wake Forest 24-17, in September behind 175 yards rushing from Eric Kettani and 6 forced turnovers by their defense. The Deacons will have revenge on their mind in the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl and you can expect QB Riley Skinner to be much better than in the first meeting. Wake will look to establish the run early to keep Navy’s nation leading rushing attack off the field and will look to exploit a suspect Navy secondary with the play action passing game. Navy will keep it close early, but in the end look for Wake Forest’s better talent to come through. Wake Forest by 7-10.
New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
3 units on Colorado St. +3 over Fresno t.
Colorado St. (6-6) vs. Fresno St. (7-5)- Fresno St. has had what can only characterized as a disappointing season plagued with inconsistency after coming into the season with expectations of a WAC championship. Injuries are largely to blame for the Bulldogs problems this season, but they won’t be getting much healthier for this game. Colorado St. comes in playing it’s best football of the season under first year head coach Steve Fairchild. Look for Gartrell Johnson to have a big game running the ball and the Rams to spring the upset. Colorado St. by 3.
MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida
10 units on South Florida -11.5 over Memphis
Memphis (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5)-South Florida appears to have all the edges in this game starting with their play making QB Matt Grothe. Look for Grothe to make big plays through the air and with his feet, and if he can avoid making multiple turnovers, this game shouldn’t be close. Memphis will have a hard time handling standout defensive end George Selvie, who will be in the Tiger’s backfield all game long. In the end Memphis won’t be able to keep up with the Bulls of USF. South Florida by 21-24.
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
5 units on Arizona -3 over BYU
(16)Brigham Young(10-2) vs. Arizona(7-5)-In what should easily be the best game of the day, two high flying offenses collide led by talented QB’s. BYU may come into the game a little disinterested by making their fourth straight appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl and if they do it will cost them, as Arizona will certainly be fired up, making the schools first post-season appearance in 10 years. Max Hall should be able to lead the Cougars offense to some points against Arizona’s defense, but the question will be if BYU’s defense can slow down Willie Tuitama and the Arizona offense. In the end the combination of Tuitama and Tight End Rob Gronkowski will be too much for the BYU defense to handle. Arizona by 7-10.
David Singh
15 unit lock of the decade
Wake Forest -3
Youngstown Connection
Navy +3
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT
NAVY vs WAKE FOREST
Play: WAKE FOREST -3
MEMPHIS vs SOUTH FLORIDA
Play: MEMPHIS / SOUTH FLORIDA OVER 54.5
BYU vs ARIZONA
Play: BYU +3.5
ST. MARY'S vs S. ILLIONOIS
Play: ST. MARY'S