BRANDON LANG
20 Dime Southern Cal
CKO- Confidential Kick-Off
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11* MICHIGAN STATE over Fla. Atlantic
*MICHIGAN STATE 45 - Fla. Atlantic 17
Michigan State HC Mark Dantonio has the Spartan program headed in the right direction, as the team has covered 8 of last 12 after a bit of a slow start to his tenure early last season. MSU showed itself to be a bit of a bully last week in manhandling Eastern Michigan 42-10 behind future pro RB Javon Ringer's 5 TDs. Expect MSU QB Brian Hoyer to regain form as he gains rapport with RS frosh WR B.J. Cunningham (8 recs., 17.4 ypc) and vet Mark Dell transitions into his new "go-to" guy to replace Devin Thomas. Florida Atlantic has not been competitive as a big underdog outside of the Sun Belt, dropping 11 of its last 12 spread decisions as a double-digit dog against non-conference foes, with an average margin of defeat of more than 37 points. Owl HC Schnellenberger will take the paycheck and focus on winning the Sun Belt.
10* SOUTHERN CAL over Ohio State
*SOUTHERN CAL 37 - Ohio State 16
Southern Cal has made a habit of covering against non-conference foes the last two seasons, covering 8 of last 9 encounters outside Pac-10 play, with the only spread loss coming as a 47-point favorite. The Trojans appear to be as good as advertised, as QB Mark Sanchez' knee appears sound and he was very sharp against the Cavs. Obviously, facing Ohio State is a step up for USC, but the Buckeyes have some questions entering this game. The biggest and most obvious is the health of lead RB "Beanie" Wells. Reporting on Wells' foot injury has been a nightly staple on the Big Ten Network, interesting, since HC Jim Tressel is guarding information on the subject as closely as the Pentagon guards the nuclear launch codes. Buckeye players who were recruited by USC have provided some "locker room" material, but doubt Trojans need more motivation for this game, and they have the better athletes.
10* AKRON over Ball State
*AKRON 37 - Ball State 33
he Gold Sheet's MAC scouts were beating a path to the bookmaker early this week, eager to grab substantial points with Akron in its home opener. The Zips are brimming with confidence following their impressive win at Syracuse last week. Versatile sr. RB Dennis Kennedy (originally at Ohio State) is back to his fine 2006 form after an injury-plagued 2007 campaign. And rapidly-maturing jr. QB Chris Jacquemain (68%, 5 TDP, only 1 int. in first 2 games) now has new troika of targets--touted juco Deryn Bowser, converted DB sr. Andre Jones, and West Virginia transfer Jeremy Bruce (combined 24 catches for 285 yards)--in his WR arsenal. Can't knock potent Ball State offense. But Cardinal defense has plenty of holes, and Akron (6-1 last 7 as dog at Rubber Bowl) will find enough of them to have good chance at springing small upset.
10* IOWA STATE over *Iowa
IOWA STATE 23 -*Iowa 24
Long-time Midwest scouts report that upbeat 2-0 Iowa State has clearly shown it has fully integrated the systems and philosophy of knowledgeable 2nd-year HC Gene Chizik, who has also upgraded recruiting. So they urge us to take generous DD spread vs. Iowa squad that hasn't proven much by whipping outclassed Maine and Florida International. Cyclones will continue to effectively rotate soph QBs, 6-3 Arnaud (77%) and athletic, swift 6-1 Bates (138 YR so far), both of whom have shown they can take full advantage of a variety of weapons, including go-to sr. WR Sumrall (54 recs. LY; 8 TY) and versatile soph RB A. Robinson (465 YR & 23 catches last 5 games), who returns to action after missing Kent State with a bruised leg. Rebuilding Hawkeye defense (just 5 starters back; new CBs) will be hard-pressed to contain nicely-balanced, growing ISU attack. Meanwhile, expect Iowa's new starting soph QB Stanzi, who replaces inconsistent jr.Christensen, to make a few miscues vs. maturing, fired-up Cyclone defense, which has limited hated rival to 17 pts. or fewer in 3 of past 4 meetings. History repeats in a bitter rivalry recently dominated by Cyclones, who've covered 9 of past 10!
EZWINNERS
5 STAR: (107) RICE (+8) over Vanderbilt
(Risking $550 to win $500)
3 STAR: (135) PENN STATE (-27.5) over Syracuse
(Risking $330 to win $300)
3 STAR: (134) FRESNO STATE (+2) over Wisconsin
(Risking $330 to win $300)
3 STAR: OVER 68 Smu @ Texas Tech
(Risking $330 to win $300)
2 STAR: (167) OHIO STATE (+11.5) over Usc
(Risking $220 to win $200)
Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
5000* ELITE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PERSONAL FAVORITE
132 Oregon St -12.5
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
VANDERBILT (-7.5) 34 Rice 16
I’ll take Vanderbilt in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -11 points.
2 Star Selection
KENTUCKY (-17.0) 34 Middle Tenn 7
I’ll take Kentucky in a 2-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less.
Dave Malinsky
6* TOP OF THE TICKET
Michigan
Larry Ness
Legend Play-1st of CFB '08 (9-2 or 81.8 percent ATS the L3 CFB seasons!)
Oregon St.
Brian Gabrielle
2008 College Football Non-Conference Game of the Year
Grab this number now while it is low at -7.5. I expect it will rise dramatically and USC could go off as a double digit favorite if you leave it too late. Where possible, buy the half point down to -7 is prudent, but -7.5 is still a gift, as the Trojans will walk away with a big double digit home win here.
Brian Gabrielle says, lay the points with Southern California over Ohio State as my 2008 College Football Non-Conference Game of the Year!
Southern Cal 38, Ohio State 17
SPYLOCK
5 Units Ohio U
3 Units S. Miss
RON RAYMOND
5* CFB GAME OF THE MONTH!
San Jose State -6.0
The Pro Source
Blowout GOW
Iowa -13 vs Iowa St (1-0 in Big 12 )
Home favorite System: 44-15 ats, 75% thru 15 seasons Iowa St in a tough spot off a revenge game at home for a loss at home last season to Kent. They run into a red hot Iowa team playing with the revenge for a 2 pt loss at Iowa St last season as a 17 pt road chalk.Here we get to use one of our favorite angles. Iowa St will be starting an inexperienced QB on the road in this game.We love to go vs a green QB in his 1st road start in a hostile stadium. With the Hawkeyes playing with revenge and rolling up big numbers, we think this gets ugly.System play to:Play Against any 2-0 College FB team if they are playing in their first road game of the season game AND they must be an underdog and game line must be in this spread range.26-14, 65% S1980, including 14-5, S2001, 74% .
New Mexico +11 Pac 10 GOW (3-1 Pac 10 gms TY) vs Arizona
Arizona barely snuck past the big number at home last week winning 41-16 as a 24 pt home chalk. AZ blew out Idaho at home the week before, but we think they come up short laying dble digits on the road today. The points look promising as things will not go so perfectly well for Arizona 3 wks in a row, and in a tough road venue. The young Wildcat defense that returns just 3 starters from last year, is an untested and inexperienced group that will struggle some in their first game away from home.Team Specific system play that has gone 32-8 S1987.That's 80% thru 21 seasons, including covering in 15 of the last 18 chances.AZ 3-8 as non conf favs of 3+, 8-20 as 3 to 12 pt favs ,
** TOP Play ** Small College GOM
Arkansas St - 1.5 vs S Mississippi
We played against S Miss last week in their road game at Arkansas. We just missed the cover as S miss lost by 14 as a 17 pt dog. We think we get even here. S Miss was fortunate to stay respectably close with Auburn last week.The Golden Eagles will face a tough situation tonite with a 2nd straight road game vs a confident Ark St team after posting 83 pts last week and beating Texas A&M on the road in Wk1. Last season Arkansas St badly out gained the Eagles at S Miss but lost by 6. The Red Wolves have huge momentum and revenge and this is a very big game for them.We have a Play On home favorites system that says the positive momentum will continue.Overall Record thru 7 seasons, 25-6-1...81%
Texas - 23 (1-0 in Big 12) vs Arkansas
System play leads us in here to:Play Against any 2-0 College FB team if they are playing in their first road game of the season game AND they must be an underdog and game line must be in this spread range.26-14, 65% S1980, including 14-5, S2001, 74% .Arkansas has not been able to run the ball or stop the run in 2 games vs pretty weak teams. Those shortcomings will bring disaster vs a strong Texas team at home.Arkansas has had to come from behind in dramatic fashion to manage wins in their first 2 home games, despite playing two weaker level teams. They should be drained emotionally and we expect them to be flat today.Texas 13-6-1 L20 as a home fav, 11-2 home vs a team with revenge off 2 SU wins.
Boise St -16.5 vs Bowling Green
This looks like a game in which B Green could get over whelmed in early. We'll take a shot that Boise will be far enough ahead, and grind time with their running game to curtail the possible backdoor cover. Boise has a game at Oregon on deck. We feel the Bronco's will be chomping at the bit with 2 wks to get ready for this game. Boise is an incredible home team, and almost always a first look when they are at home. Trouble is, you have to pay a big price when backing Boise at home. Here, we think Boise can win this by at least 21, so we'll jump in.The Broncos have covered nearly 75% of the time as a home favorite since 1992. We get an even better 10-3 mark since 1992 if we make the posted total in the game between 56 to 63 ots....77% for 15 seasons.This is more a feel play..it smells like a B-L-O-W-O-U-T
Tommy Rider
Double-Dime Bet
Georgia -7.0 vs South Carolina
Last season the Gamecocks upset Georgia 19-14 in a game that ultimately kept the Bulldogs from playing for the National Title. You think the Dawgs remember that? What a great spot for Georgia. They were able to sleepwalk through their first two games, keeping their players fresh for this matchup. The Bulldogs offense can score on any team and as SC showed against Vandy, their defense isn't all it was cracked up to be. In reality, NC State is just hideous and they made the Gamecocks defense look better than it is. Steve Spurrier has no idea who his quarterback will be but it doesn't really matter does it? Both guys stink and the Dawgs defense will eat them alive. To make matters worse, the Cocks are without their one offensive playmaker for this game, WR Kenny McKinley. People can use all the trends and numbers they want to tell you this series is usually close. I handicap teams now, not 10 years ago. Right now, the Dawgs are the far superior team and they are going to open up a can on SC in this game. **2 UNIT PLAY**
Double-Dime Bet
Cent. Michigan -3.0 vs Ohio
This is a great spot for the Chips. They get blasted by the big boys but own the MAC. In the last two years, Central Michigan has been drilled by Purdue, Clemson and Georgia, only to come back and dominate the MAC Conference. We are getting great line value here because Ohio played Wyoming tough and led Ohio State in the fourth quarter. But let's take a closer look at those games. We now know that Wyoming stinks, while Jim Tressel admitted his team was looking past the Bobcats. Plus, I think Ohio is mentally drained after traveling to Wyoming and being in a hard-fought battle with the Buckeyes. Because Ohio looked good and Central Michigan got hammered last week, we are in position to jump all over a soft line. I think Dan LeFevour and the Chips offense is too much for Ohio to handle and Central Michigan takes this one by double-digits. Also, I bought the half point down to -3 just to be safe. **2 UNIT PLAY**
Double-Dime Bet
Ohio St. 12.0 vs Southern Cal
I JUST WENT TO BET THIS GAME AT BODOG AND IT'S AT -11.5. GO AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AND BUY UP TO 12 POINTS. This is just too many points for me to pass up fellas. I was leaning toward the Buckeyes in the first place but I've been talking to some people here in Vegas and there is going to be a lot of late money put on the Bucks. Why? Because as I said, we are being forced to take Ohio State with the line value here. I've been told by a good friend of mine close to the OSU program that the Buckeyes have a lot in store for USC. They have been game-planning for this game all summer long, which almost came back to haunt them last week because they weren't prepared to play Ohio. And yes, Terrelle Pryor is going to be a big part of the gameplan. I keep hearing about Pete Carroll. Let's say he's the best coach in CFB. Who is second? Probably Jim Tressel. My point being, Carroll doesn't have a huge coaching advantage here. I have the coaching even, defenses even, special teams to OSU and offense to USC. I'm sorry but that doesn't sound like a blowout to me. I expect the Buckeyes to come out strong and for their defense to make life miserable for Mark Sanchez. And I've seen tape on a lot of players in high school and the only guy in Pryor's league was Mike Vick, who remains the best high school player I've ever seen. If you think Pryor can't be a factor as a freshman, think again. This guy is the real deal and Saturday will be his coming out party. Like I said, I was thinking about OSU and once I heard the sharps are also going to pound it late Saturday, taking 12 points with the Buckeyes is a no-brainer. **2 UNIT PLAY**
I will also be playing *1 UNIT* on the OSU ML to win +340
Double-Dime Bet
Nebraska / New Mexico St. Over 58.0
This is going to be an offensive showcase. Nebraska's offense has played well in two games this year and they should pile up points on an undermanned Aggies defense. While this is New Mexico State's first game of the season, they return a ton of firepower in Hal Mumme's high-flying offense, including QB Chase Holbrook. The Huskers pass defense hasn't been good against two lightweights, allowing 342 yards through the air to Western Michigan and 242 to a San Jose State team that has no offense whatsoever. Holbrook will exploit the Huskers secondary all day long, as I expect him to eclipse 400 yards passing. Meanwhile, Nebraska should top 50 points all by themselves in this game. I see us cashing an easy over here. It could be in the bag before the fourth quarter even gets underway. **2 UNIT PLAY**
Jeff Bonds
Triple-Dime Bet
Maryland +14.5 vs California
The Cal Bears are now ranked for the first time in 2008, after impressive wins against Michigan State and a terrible Washington State team. Last week creates at least five points of value to this line, as the Bears blew out the Cougars and Maryland lost on the road to Middle Tennessee State.
The Bears haven't traveled to the East Coast since 2001 and head coach Jeff Tedford has never faced an ACC opponent. Why are they here? I think that's exactly what the players will think - after they get over the jet lag of flying across the country on Friday and play at Noon EST (9:00 AM PST - easily their earliest start time in years)
Maryland is a solid 34-11 at Chevy Chase Bank Field and was an impressive 2-1 against ranked foes last year - winning two of those straight up.
Cal hasn't covered their longest traveling road game the past four years - failing to cover by more than 11 points. Tremendous home dog value - when their opponent is just 8-9 in their last 17 road games
ASA
BUFFALO BULLS -6.5 over Temple Owls
ASA's 5-Star Top Game Selection - What a great spot to side with Buffalo. First of all, Temple is in a horrible spot here. The Owls are off their biggest home game this year as they faced off with UConn from the Big East. Temple led for much of the game, even though they really didn’t deserve to, but lost 12-9 in overtime. The hooters were dominated on the ground as UConn rolled over them for 293 yards rushing (Temple was held to 128). It was a gut wrenching loss for an Owl team looking to improve in 2008. It will be really tough for them to turn around and go on the road and play well.
Not only do they go on the road, they face a vastly improved and very solid Buffalo team. The Bulls are now 1-1 after crushing UTEP at home 42-17 out gaining the Miners by 218 total yards. Last week Buffalo went to an angry Pitt team that was off an embarrassing home loss. The Bulls played very well and lost by 11. The score should have been much closer as Buffalo held even in first downs (22 to 22), had a time of possession edge and were only out gained by 4 yards in the game. The Bulls were only one score away from tying the game (down 24-26) with under four minutes remaining in the game. This is a solid team that absolutely dominated Temple on the road last year by a score of 42-7. Buffalo rolled to 414 yards in that game while holding Temple to 140. While Temple has improved some, our opinion is Buffalo has improved even more and this year they face the Owls at home.
Temple is also 1-1 but they have not been impressive. In week one they beat a very poor Army team 35-7. Looks like the Owls dominated right? Wrong! They were out gained in that game by 35 yards and only had 250 yards of total offense. They allowed the Cadets to roll them for 211 yards. That means in two games this team has given up 504 yards on the ground. Army turned around last week at lost at home to New Hampshire 28-10, so the deceiving win by Temple over the Cadets was truly nothing special.
Expect the Bulls to be angry after their loss and take it out on Temple by absolutely dominating the ground game. This one will get UGLY. BUFFALO by 20.
TULANE GREEN WAVE +13 over East Carolina Pirates
ASA's 4-Star Selection - ECU has been the toast of the College Football world after the first two weeks of the season. In the opener they ousted a vastly overrated Virginia Tech team 27-22 on a neutral site in Charlotte. They picked up that win by blocking a punt and returning it 27-yards for a TD with under two minutes remaining in the game. In week two the Pirates played host to another overvalued team, the West Virginia Mountaineers. ECU dominated in their biggest home win in years and got the win 24-3. A very impressive start for a solid East Carolina team.
However, no matter how good a team is, they ALWAYS have games where they don’t play well do to a loss of emotion and focus. This is one of those games for the Pirates. There is no possible way this team can play at their peak level again this week. Not only are they coming off two humungous wins, they face off against another big time rival next week @ NC State. To expect the players on this ECU team to be fully focused all week on preparing for Tulane is not realistic.
That’s a dangerous mindset heading down to New Orleans this Saturday. The Green Wave more than held their own on the road last weekend against a very good Alabama team. Tulane lost the game 20-6, however that was not the entire story. The Wave actually dominated the mighty Crimson Tide racking up 146 more total yards. Tulane’s defense was outstanding holding Bama to just 73 yards passing and 99 yards rushing. They also held the home team to only 11 first downs. So how did they give up 20 points you ask? The Tide scored two TD’s on special teams with a blocked punt returned for a TD and an 87-yard punt return.
Now Tulane gets to play their first home game of the season vs. a team that is bound to be flighty when it comes to focus. The host has won 8 of the last 9 in this series and Tulane will have a great shot at a win here. The smart money has been on the Green Wave here as the line has dropped almost a full point despite the fact that nearly three-quarters of the bettors have sided with East Carolina. We agree with the smart money here and we’ll grab almost two full TD’s in this one.
ASA 3-Star- Ohio State @ USC OVER 44
Two weeks ago when USC kicked their season off in Virginia, they had absolutely no problems marching down the field and scoring, and they did so on their first 5 drives and jumped out to a 27-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter. I guess there isn’t much of a problem doing that when anyone on that team can go the distance whenever they touch the ball. Ohio State is no slouch either; they return 10 starters on an offense that averaged 31.4 points per game! They also added #1 recruit QB Terrelle Pryor who most experts say is a clone to Vince Young. Do you remember Vince Young’s last game as a Longhorn? A 41-38 classic against USC. RB Beanie Wells is questionable for this game, but we feel that with or without him, this game is destined to be a high-scoring affair. In the past three seasons, USC has faced 16 ranked opponents, in those 16 match-ups, USC has averaged 38.5 points per game. Also, in those 16 games, USC has given up an average of 22 points per game, do the math and that is a total of 60.5 points! USC is 11-4 Over in their last 15 non-conference games. In Ohio St. last two big non-conference match-ups, they faced Florida and LSU in the National Championships in back-to-back seasons, they lost to Florida 14-41, and they lost to LSU 24-38. On the other side, for USC, their last big out of conference game was in the Rose Bowl vs. Illinois, USC scored early and often and won that game 49-17. Don’t let Ohio States last game vs. Ohio fool you about their offense, at times they can be conservative, but they won’t be able to play conservative in this game because of the Trojan’s high powered offense, and that could lead to mistakes and more points for USC. With All-Americans on both offenses, we expect a shoot-out from the start and for the total to easily exceed 44 points.
FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS +2 over Wisconsin Badgers
Few, if any programs, have had more success against BCS schools than Fresno State. The Bulldogs are the ultimate BCS busters, winning 13 games over BCS schools over the last decade. That includes an impressive win to open the season @ Rutgers 24-7 as a 5-point dog. That 13 win total is more than any other non-BCS program in the country.
Hawaii and Boise State dominated the WAC headlines last year but Fresno State quietly put together a solid season. The Bulldogs went 9-4 last year and won their final three games, including a 40-28 win over Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl. Fresno State will have plenty of time to prepare for this game coming off a bye week. This team has great balance on offense with veteran QB Tom Brandstater calling the signals and Ryan Mathews toting the rock. In their cross-country win @ Rutgers, Brandstater threw for 216 yards and Mathews ran for 163. The Dogs are tough to stop on offense.
The Badgers are among the Big Ten’s elite but they have some questions on defense. Their defensive backfield is young and that showed last week against Marshall. The Herd have a freshman QB named Mark Cann and he shredded the Wisky secondary early on Saturday and ended the day with 211 yards passing but three key interceptions. Marshall actually led 14-0 before the Badgers got their bearing at home and pulled away. It will be a whole different scenario on the road against a very good team.
We’re getting nice value here after Wisconsin throttled two inferior opponents at home to start the season. Now they travel across the country against a very good team that has had two weeks to prepare. Oh, did we mention this is the biggest game in YEARS for Fresno. They are hosting a top program and this is the game they’ve been pointing to all off-season. Fresno wins and covers at home.
Ethan Law
Virginia +11.0 vs 164 Connecticut
The Virginia Cavaliers (1-1 SU & 0-1 ATS) travel to Storrs, Connecticut this week to play the UConn Huskies (2-0 SU & 0-1 ATS) in a rematch of a 17-16 Cavs win last year. Uconn comes in off a scintillating 12-9 overtime win over a very bad Temple team. I hope you are hearing the sarcasm in that last sentence, because except for the fact that it was a close game, it was anything but an exciting game. The reason Mainly because neither team did anything offensively all day, and the scoring was limited to 4 field goals in regulation. The entire 2nd half was played in a downpour, so that also had a lot to do with it. In week 1 the Huskies won easily against Div 1-AA Hofstra 35-3. Dominating Hofstra was expected, but things did not go as smoothly as hoped. Senior quarterback Tyler Lorenzen was out of sync with his receivers all day long, and the offense flourished mainly because of 218 rushing yards. Lorenzen threw 3 interceptions that day, and another 2 last week, leaving the Huskie coaches more than a little worried entering this game. That?s not very good news when your match-up against Virginia's head coach Al Groh who is well known as a defensive guru in coaching circles, and one who id eager to erase their embarrassing defeat last weekend against the Powerful USC offense. Indeed, if the UConn offensive attack cannot find some semblance of balance, they will struggle mightily to move the ball against the best defense they have faced yet this year. It is a good bet that Virginia will brace themselves against the run, forcing the Huskies into long passing situations. Unless Lorenzen gets himself untracked, the Uconn offense seems destined for another low scoring defensive battle this week. Therein lies the entire premise for this play. How can a team struggling on offense sustain enough offense to cover a double-digit point spread? The Cavaliers have enough talent in the front seven, namely linebackers Antonio Appleby, Clint Sintim, and Jon Copper, to stack the line of scrimmage and force Husky Tyler Lorenzen to beat them. Head coach Randy Edsall told the media this week that fans need to stop blaming the offensive coordinator for the vanilla play calling and instead blame him (Edsall). The argument is that the coaching staff cannot be blamed for Connecticut?s lack of confidence throwing the ball since handing the ball off to junior running back Donald Brown has been all that has worked so far. Lorenzen's zero touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 2 games against inferior competition is a clear indicator of how badly they have struggled.
Last year's 17-16 Virginia win over the Huskies was an ugly game, and this year's looks to play out very similarly. Neither team has much going for it offensively, so asking either side to lay double digits in this type of game is a stretch, to say the least. Departed Virginia qquarterback Jameel Sewell had an awful game in last year?s contest, yet the Virginia was still able to outlast Uconn that day 17-16. I bring this up only because of the announcement Wednesday night that sophomore quarterback Peter Lalich will not play this weekend. The 20-year-old was arrested on an underage drinking charge July 13, and he decided to step aside till this is resolved, so that it doesn't serve as a distraction to the team. The loss of Palich does not impact my decision to play on the underdog because, simply put, he is not a difference maker offensively, and his main job was handing the ball off anyway. Virginia was able to overcome bad quarterback play last year to actually win against Uconn, and this year they need only stay within 11 points. Virginia was lambasted in their opener by maybe the best team in the country. The Trojans 52-7 win is forgivable. Following it up with an unimpressive win against Richmond last week is understandable considering the off-season focus by the team and coaching staff, pointing towards the USC game. Richmond was very excited to play an instate BCS school and the Cavaliers were licking their wounds from an embarrassing blowout. The Virginia defense did hold the Spiders to 19 yards rushing, and that run defense is the unit we are banking on to provide the impetus to keep this game close. UConn is more experienced than Virginia (with 10 starters back on offense and 8 on defense), but they do not have superior athletes in the trenches to overpower the Cavaliers on the ground, as they did against Temple and Hofstra. Uconn has lost their last 6 contests facing ACC opponents, and that streak would be longer if not for them squeaking by perennial ACC doormat Duke 22-20 as 15 point favorites in 2004. We can also take confidence in the fact that the Big East Conference as a whole has struggled out of conference early on this year. The Big East is in fact a perfect 0-10 ATS so far this year in non-conf games! Oh boy! Believe me, the ACC is not much better, but playing Virginia is a step up in competition after Hofstra and Temple (who play no better than 1-AA level either). I would have recommend a play on the under if not for the ultra-low number Vegas has posted on this game. Instead we will take the substantial points and rely on good old fashioned defense to keep this one close, and pray to the football gods that Virginia is able to muster 10-14 points. Rough Rough!
Verdict: Connecticut 17, Virginia 14
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON VIRGINIA +11
Other Plays
2% Maryland +15.5
2% Washington +21