SCORE
400 Fla St
300 N Caro
Billy Coleman
NBA
4* Washington
CBB
3* W.VA.
NHL
2* Montreal PK(+120)
2* NY Rangers PK(-125)
CFB Bowls
4* NC/WVA OVER
3* Florida St.
Big Al
10 Dimes Wisc
Gameday
4* Cal
2* UNC
Sports Unlimited
4* Wisc +6
O.C. Dooley Guaranteed Selections
TONIGHT'S "4 UNIT" COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BET TOTAL Miami at California UNDER 51
One of the many keys to this total has to do with the SUSPENSION of Miami's starting quarterback. The Hurricanes reserve signal caller is NOT 100% healthy which is an issue I will deal with later in this analysis segment. When one thinks of California, it normally has to do with head coach Jeff Tedford who has a reputation of being an offensive genius. But before this season even started Tedford relinquished his play calling duties, and also changed the Golden Bears DEFENSE from a "4-3" to a "3-4" allignment. The reason for the switch had to due with excellent depth at linebacker headed by All Pac-10 senior Zack Follett. The following may come as a shock to many of you but California actually has a TOP-15 national ranking in both SACKS and turnover margin. As you watch this evening's game on ESPN, you will notice that California's defense actually looks like those physical stop-units from the Southeastern Conference but with extra SPEED attached. The Golden Bears stop-unit actually reminds me of Boise State as a major portion of the betting public was not aware that statistically they were one of the better DEFENSES in the land. That Boise State/TCU clash turned out to be extremely low scoring and stayed way UNDER the total. Just like Boise State, we have a school participating tonight (California) that is much more known for offensive prowess, so I am going to take full advantage of this inflated total. California actually entered this season with a myriad of offensive question marks, including at the quarterback position where two-year starter Nate Longshore proved to be extremely inconsistant. I can confirm that Longshore will start behind center tonight, but the main catalyst of the offense is at RUNNING BACK where Jahvid Best led the entire Pac-10 Conference in total yards gained on the ground. It comes as no shock that California called a substantial amount of running plays this season because the explosive Best had the opportunity to run behind All-America center Alex Mack who at one point was considering an early jump to the NFL. To make a long story short, California has a completely new cast at the wide receiver position which is extremely young. Coming into the season, Cal's roster featured a grand total of just 12 career receptions, with 10 of those catches belonging to ONE player. Another key to this total has to do with the SUSPENSION of Miami starting quarterback Robert Mavre (academics). For those of you who may not be aware, Mavre broke Tim Tebow's state high school passing records and is an excellent prospect. Miami's reserve quarterback who actually split time under center is the same Jacory Harris who suffered an injury to his THROWING SHOULDER in the regular season finale. Of course with an extended period of time to heal that shoulder, Harris is feeling better but the bottom line is that he is still feeling pain when attempting to throw the DEEP pass which most likely will NOT be in Miami's plans this evening. I will admit that Harris completed 60% of his pass attempts and amassed 1,000 aerial yards, but that has only helped inflate tonight's total. Not only is Miami "green" at the quarterback slot, they have a new cast of wide receivers. Among the Hurricanes wideouts, only ONE caught more than 11 passes one year ago. Miami's lead rusher is Graig Cooper (778 total ground yards) who did NOT run for more than 52 yards in each of the most recent 3 outings. I will admit that the Miami defense hit a wall in the final two weeks of the regular season when they surrendered a grand total of 79 points in a pair of road losses, but that is not all that shocking considering that young teams tend to get a bit tired last in the regular campaign. That Miami defense which is littered with speed and athleticism has had plenty of time to re-charge the collective engine so to speak. Miami's best players are on DEFENSE led by linebacker Sean Spence who already has garnered a "conference rookie of the year" honor. Miami also has defensive end Marcus Robinson (9 tackles for loss) and defensive tackle Marcus Forston (3 sacks in final 3 regular season contests) who are both budding stars. My database research indicates that Miami is 22-9 UNDER long term when the posted total is between 49'-and-56 points. California is 18-5 UNDER after a game where 24+ first-half points were scored. But the big news is a massive 81-PERCENT SYSTEM (35-8 past decade in NON-Conference settings). This 81% system takes teams like Miami off consecutive ugly conference losses where they allowed 31+ points, UNDER the total. I mentioned earlier that California shockingly has one of the nation's better defense which just happens to be ranked #2 in the entire nation with 23 combined interceptions. I want to remind all of you about one of California's "step up" games this season in what turned out to be a very low scoring 17-3 final road verdict at Southern California. Due to that 81% angle which indicates we have an inflated spot, this in my mind is the "bowl system total of the year"
Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
Orlando (-9.5) over MINNESOTA
Minnesota broke their 13 game losing streak with a win at New York last night, but the Timberwolves are just 3-16-1 ATS as an underdog of 12 points or less following a victory (0-4 ATS this season) and only 10-22 ATS at home against teams with a winning record (1-7 ATS this season). Orlando, meanwhile, has covered the spread in 9 consecutive games and the Magic have made a habit of beating up on bad teams under coach Stan Van Gundy. The Magic are 34-14-2 ATS under Van Gundy when facing a team that is 2 games or more below .500, including 26-8-1 ATS if they did not have to play the previous night. That record is 23-5 ATS if the Magic are not favored by more than 11 points, including 7-1 ATS this season, and 13-0 ATS against teams with a win percentage of less than .375. My ratings favor Orlando by 11 ½ points and I’ll take the Magic in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
2-Stars at -10 or less.
3 Star Selection
MILWAUKEE (-5) over Detroit
Detroit is a below average team since trading away Chauncey Billups for the vastly overrated Allen Iverson, as the Pistons have been out-scored by an average of 1.6 points per game in 23 games while playing a schedule that is 0.2 points easier than average. Detroit is still perceived to be a pretty good team and the Pistons are just 9-14 ATS with Iverson because their reputation exceeds their actual level of play with Iverson. Milwaukee is just 14-16 straight up, but the Bucks are 20-9-1 ATS this season while out-scoring their opponents by 0.3 points per game playing a schedule that is 1.0 points tougher than average. Using Detroit’s games with Iverson against all of Milwaukee’s games would yield a prediction of Bucks by 7 ½ points after factoring in the extra home court advantage for a rested team against a team that played the previous night. Milwaukee is a point better if you only include the 16 games in which star G Michael Redd played, so I would favor Milwaukee by 8 ½ points tonight. Aside from the line value the Bucks also apply to a 57-18-1 ATS subset of a 219-124-6 ATS home favorite revenge situation and I’ll take Milwaukee in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points. 3-Stars at -6 or less, 2-Stars up to -7.
SMOOTH44
ALL ARE TOP-RATED
NORTH CAROLINA +3 -120
NORTH CAROLINA ML +120
Here is the bottom line, we all know WV is one-dimensional and is going to run White early and often!! And the ONLY question is can UNC stop him!? I say YES!! What I find very interesting is that UNC faced two top 20 rushing programs this season, UConn - 20th and Ga Tech - 3rd, and UNC won BOTH games 28-7 and 38-12 respectively!! What did UConn and Ga Tech have in common besides their awesome ground game?? NEITHER team had a passing attack to back it up!! UConn ranks 106th in the nation while Ga. Tech 117th!! And where does WV rank?? 109th!! Capeesh?? Certain bowl teams (WV) are a PERFECT 0-12 ATS since 1982 when coming off a SU win in their season finale scoring 14 points or less!! Meanwhile, certain bowl teams (UNC) are a PERFECT 13-0 SU and ATS since 1987 when they won their season finale off a blowout loss before that!! Folks, the wrong team is favored in this one and UNC wins!!
WISCONSIN +6
WISCONSIN ML +210
No long write up needed because here is the bottom line!! We all know Wisky's strength is their ground attack and they are damn good at it ranking 14th in the nation!! FSU has only faced TWO top rushing programs all season, Florida (11th) and Ga. Tech (3rd), and they gave up 312 yds and 293 yds respectively and LOST both games!! Coincidence?? I don't think so!! Aside from these two teams the rest of FSU's schedule averaged 64th in the nation for rushing with ONLY ONE other team ranking in the top 50 (Va Tech-42nd)!! Certain bowl teams (WISKY) that failed to cover their 2 final games of the season as a DD fave are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS since 1984 when they are a dog of 3.5-9.5 points!! Meanwhile, certain bowl teams (FSU) are a PERFECT 0-9 SU and ATS since 2002 when coming off a blowout loss in their season finale against a non-conference foe, losing SU by an average of 15 pts/gm and failing to cover by an average of almost 19 pts/gm!! Folks, the wrong team is favored in this one and I expect Wisky to win outright!!
MIAMI-FL +10 CFB GAME OF THE WEEK
MIAMI-FL ML +320
I am not sure why there is so much public love for Cal today. Perhaps it is the illusion that their defense is better and their offense is more explosive, however, I can't disagree more!! The Hurricanes are only 7-5 but nobody is taking the time to recognize that they went 7-5 against the 9th toughest schedule in the nation!! Although they appear statistically worse than Cal in almost every major category what really stands out to me is Cal's inability to convert on 3rd down; they rank almost dead last in the nation and this does not bode well for them today against a Miami defense that ranks 13th in the nation at stopping the pass!! The whole game comes down to Miami's ability to force Cal into 3rd and mid-long range and if they are successful in doing this it could be a long day for Cal especially with a QB that struggled to complete 50% of his passes this year!! Certain bowl teams (MIAMI) that failed to cover their 2 final games of the season as a DD fave are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS since 1984 when they are a dog of 3.5-9.5 points!! Bowl teams who are not dogs of more than 11 points and coming off 2 SU road losses to end the season have dominated their opponents going a PERFECT 12-0 ATS since 1980, winning SU 11 times and covering the spread by an average of almost 15 pts/gm!! In bowl games involving Pac-10 teams underdogs (MIAMI) of more than 4 points are a PERFECT 17-0 ATS since 1997 when coming off a SU loss in their season finale winning SU almost 70% of the time. In bowl games involving Pac-10 and ACC teams the ACC (MIAMI) is a PERFECT 6-0 SU and ATS since 1980 when they are the underdog, winning SU by an average of more than 12 pts/gm!! Meanwhile, certain bowl faves (CAL) of more than 6 points have been horrible going a PERFECT 0-18 ATS since 2004 including Central Michigan last night!! Bowl teams (CAL) that scored more than 32 points in their final 2 games of the season have fallen flat on their faces going a PERFECT 0-9 ATS since 2007 losing SU 8 times!! Folks, the WRONG TEAM is favored in this one!! MIAMI IS MY CFB GAME OF THE WEEK!!
JEFFERSONSPORTS
NCAA FOOTBALL
CAL-9.5 -120
FSU-6
NCAA HOOPS
WASH ST.+4.5
NBA
MILWAUKEE-5
GILBERG
20* Top Play NC
10* Reg Play Florida St Under and Cal Over
Michael Cannon
30 Dime – WEST VIRGINIA
SPORTS BANK
500 GAME OF MONTH
WEST VIRGINIA
HalfBets
Washington St. v. LSU
PICK: LSU -4.5 Game (3*)
W. Virginia v. Ohio St
PICK: W. Virginia +3 Game (3*)
Underdog Hotline
Wisconsin
Alatex
Portland (ncaa)
Mti Sports
4* Okla City/ Wash Over
CHARLIE
Miami Fl +10 (500* )
Wisconsin vs Fl State Under 52 (30*)
Miami Fl vs Cal Over 50' (20*)
Wisconsion +6 (20*)
Opposite Action Plays
CALIFORNIA -10
JB Sports
NETS +2.5
Mike Lineback
FLORIDA St -5.5
Tony George
FLORIDA St -5.5
Cal Sports?
Special K
20* Louisville -12.5
NBA
Milwaukee -5
Dave Malinsky
4* Ohio State -1
Vegas Sports Experts
The VSE Saturday Hoops Power Plays are:
THEIR GUARANTEED NCAA HOOPS 4-0 PARLAY WINNER
10* Take Washington State (+6.5) over LSU (NCAA Power Play)
LSU
9-22 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons
0-5 ATS vs. PAC-10 Conference Opponents
4-12 ATS after having won 3 of the last 4 games
10* Take West Virginia (+3) over Ohio State (NCAA Power Play)
West Virginia
16-3 SU coming off a home win by 20 points or more
17-2 SU when playing in the month of December the last 3 seasons
Allowing an average of only 56 ppg on defense this season
10* Take UAB (+13.5) over Louisville (NCAA Power Play)
Louisville
6-16 ATS when playing in the month of December the last 3 seasons
0-3 ATS after having won 4 of the last 5 games
10* Take Iona (+6.5) over South Florida (NCAA Power Play)
South Florida
0-3 ATS coming off an OVER the total this season
6-18 ATS coming off a loss by 10 points or more
0-3 SU & ATS after allowing 85 points or more
Bonus Hoops & NHL Plays are
5* Take Orlando (-9) over Minnesota (NBA)
5* Take Buffalo (-250) over NY Islanders (NHL)
Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
COLLEGE HOOPS POWER PLAY WINNER
California -24
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
COLLEGE HOOPS LATE STEAM BLOWOUT WINNER
South Florida -5.5
Wunderdog
4u Miami Florida +10