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Panthers -9.5
Jeff Benton
30 Dimes Panthers
This game smacks of the classic situation in the NFL where a perennial underachiever wins a home playoff game in impressive fashion, then comes out the next week and gets steamrolled on the road against a superior opponent. Yes, the Cardinals were very impressive in last week’s 30-24 victory over the Falcons as a one-point home favorite (all the late money came in on Arizona after Atlanta opened as a 2½-point road chalk). But to me, the players seemed a little bit too pleased after that victory, like they accomplished more than they actually did.
And taking nothing away from the Falcons – they had an incredible season – playing Atlanta at home is a whole lot different than playing the rested, experienced and streaking Panthers in Carolina. Sure, the Cardinals gave the Panthers all they could handle when they went to Carolina in Week 8, opening up a 17-3 lead before turnovers on offense and busted coverages on defense allowed the Panthers to come back and win 27-23, with Arizona barely covering as a 4½-point road underdog. In fact, Arizona dominated that game on the stat sheet, finishing with a 425-351 edge in total offense.
However, two extenuating circumstances were in place in that game that won’t be today. First off, the week before hosting Arizona, the Panthers had thumped divisional rival New Orleans 30-7 as a three-point home favorite, and after winning three straight home games by a combined tally of 88-16, Carolina was probably feeling a little too good about itself and likely didn’t take the Cardinals seriously, figuring it could just show up and win without much effort. Secondly, the Panthers had their bye the week after facing Arizona, and many teams don’t have the same focus when playing the week before a midseason bye.
Well, this time around, Carolina is coming off a bye – meaning the Panthers not only come into this game fresh, but they shouldn’t be dealing with any kind of letdown issues like they were after the emotional blowout of the Saints prior to hosting Arizona. What’s more, after the Cardinals put a scare into the Panthers on that late October afternoon – not to mention as well as the Cards played last week against the Falcons – there’s no chance of Carolina overlooking Arizona this time, certainly not with this being a playoff game. In other words, I believe the Panthers will play with a sense of urgency, focus and passion that just wasn’t there when these teams first met.
A few more points to make: It’s almost certain that the Cardinals won't get much -- if anything -- out of Pro Bowl WR Anquan Boldin (hamstring injury vs. Falcons last week), and that's an enormous loss for Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense. In the first meeting, Boldin had 9 catches for 63 yards and caught Warner’s two TD passes, while also gaining 30 rushing yards (a team high!) on one reverse. Also, Carolina’s big guns of QB Jake Delhomme (20-for-28, 248 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs), RB DeAngelo Williams (17 carries, 108 yards, 1 TD) and WR Steve Smith (5 catches, 117 yards, 2 TDs, including a 65-yarder) had HUGE games against Arizona back in October. And even though the Cardinals’ defense played outstanding last week against Atlanta, the fact is, this defense gave up averages of 31 points and 339.5 total yards (114.8 rushing yards) in its eight road games. Yikes!
Lastly, the Panthers were the NFL’s only undefeated team at home (8-0 SU, 5-2-1 ATS), with an average margin of victory of 15 ppg (29-14), and behind Williams and rookie RB Jonathan Stewart, they averaged a whopping 173.6 rushing ypg (5 per carry) on their home turf. On the other hand, Arizona went 3-5 (4-4 ATS) on the road, but all three outright wins and three of the four covers came against NFC West weaklings Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis. When they traveled to the Eastern Time Zone, the Cardinals went 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS (the only cover being by a ½-point in Carolina), getting outscored by exactly 20 points per game (40.4-20.4).
Throw in the fact rainy, cold and windy weather is forecast for this game – if it materializes, Carolina’s rushing advantage becomes even stronger – and I’m not at all intimidated by this impost, especially considering that John Fox is 6-1 ATS in the postseason as Carolina’s head coach. Give the big points with 100 percent confidence.
RAS
Northern Arizona/Montana State Over 133.5 1.00 UNIT
UC Riverside/Pacific Over 117 1.00 UNIT
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