Kelso
10 unit Central Flor +10.5
5 units Florida -7.5
4 units Mich St -8.5
3 units Georgia -7
Charlies
500* Ohio +11.5
30* Penn St -28.5
20* Akron -10
20* AL-8.8
10* Iowa +1
10* OH St -20.5
ATS Lock Club
7 units NCSt +7
6 units Auburn +2.5
6 units Pittsburgh +1
6 units New Mexico +10
6 units Indiana -3
5 units Rutgers -5
Psychic
2 units Alabama -9.5
2 units Texas A&M +3.5
3 units Rutgers -5.5
DA STICK
5 units Florida Atlantic +7
5 units UCLA +3
10 units Rutgers -5.5
10 units South Florida -28.5
10 units Florida State -5
10 units Notre Dame +9
DA STICK COLLEGE TEASER OF THE WEEKEND
10 units Viriginia Tech +13.5, Tennessee +18, Florida State +5
DA STICK UNDERDOG OF THE DAY NCAA SATURDAY
10 units Notre Dame +9
Dave Malinsky
6* Army
6* Rutgers
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
5000* SEC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
Mississippi -7
Greg Roberts
Utah -9 Over Air Force (Favorite Game)
Michigan State -9 Over Notre Dame
North Carolina -3 Over Virginia Tech
Penn State -28 Over Temple
Georgia Tech -7.5 Over Mississippi State
Arkansas +9 Over Alabama
Tennessee +7.5 Over Florida
Vanderbilt +7 Over Ole Miss
Wake Forest +4.5 Over Florida State
New Mexico +10 Over Tulsa
Auburn +2.5 Over LSU
Georgia -7 Over Arizona State
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report
5 STAR SELECTION
TOLEDO +7 over Fresno State
Still clinging to Top 25 status, the Bulldogs are back on the road for a non-conference game road game with the MAC’s Rockets on Saturday.
Fresno State opened the 2008 campaign by traveling all the way across the country to face Rutgers in New Jersey and returned to California with a convincing 24-7 victory. Following a week off, the Bulldogs were back at it again, this time against 10th-ranked Wisconsin at home and came up short in a defensive 13-10 battle, yet still maintained a place in the national rankings.
As for Toledo, after being crushed by Arizona in its opener on September 6th in Tucson, the Rockets rebounded by taking care of conference foe Eastern Michigan in Ypsilanti last Saturday afternoon by a score of 41-17.
Fresno State played their guts out last weekend and managed to produce 343 yards of total offense versus Wisconsin, and yet the Bulldogs still made it into the end zone just once. A big part of the problem was that, when the offense stalled, it was left to kicker Kevin Goessling to pick of the pieces and he ended up missing three of his four field goal attempts.
Last season Brandstater was a marginal quarterback at best, getting the job done with as few mistakes as possible was pretty much his M.O. but this year the Bulldogs will need more production from him, but he may be regressing.
Aside from giving up 112 yards rushing to Badgers runner P.J. Hill, the Fresno State defense did almost everything right a weekago. Wisconsin's offense was stymied time and time again, allowed just 304 yards and converted a mere 3-of-13 on third down. However, aside from a blocked field goal attempt by Ben Jacobs at the end of the first half, the Bulldogs failed to make any impact plays that caused a turnover or a swing in momentum.
Against Eastern Michigan, the Rockets turned on the after burners by racing up and down the field for 233 yards on 36 rushing attempts, en route to the convincing win on the road. DaJuane Collins accounted for 168 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Although he completed just 8-of-18 passing for 114 yards in heavy rain, Aaron Opelt came alive with three TD passes.
The Toledo defense took advantage of the Eastern Michigan passing game, picking off a pair of passes and limiting the home team to just 131 yards through the air.
Fresno State entered the season with the highest of hopes - a Bowl Championship Series berth. But after the loss to Wisconsin, the Bulldogs' BCS dream is certainly a long shot at best.
The biggest question around the program is how the team responds to the adversity of losing to the Badgers and effectively ending those hopes. In the past the Bulldogs have let down after tough losses and with so much emphasis placed on the game with Wisconsin, it’s likely to happen again. Demonstrating how poorly Fresno performs after a disappointment, we note that they are:
0-12-1 ATS (-12.8 ppg) off a SU loss in which they did not beat the spread by more than 11 points.
0-11-1 ATS (-13 ppg) on the road off a SU loss
0-8-1 ATS (-10 ppg) off a home SU loss
Now, instead of being the hunter, Fresno State becomes the hunted on Saturday. Toledo will be looking to make a statement and look to be in good shape, as they are 11-0 SU (+24.6 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+15 ppg) at home off scoring 35+ points and allowing less than 35 points in its last game and not favored by 32+ points. They are also 6-0 SU (+8.7 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+12.8 ppg) as a home underdog under Amstutz with less than 14 days rest off their previous game.
These teams met in 2005 at Fresno and the Bulldogs blasted the Rockets, 44-14. Toledo has not forgotten, which will only add to their motivation. The Rockets are 4-0 SU & ATS at home with revenge vs. non-conference opponents under Amstutz.
After an embarrassing blowout road loss in a special, non-Saturday meeting, underdogs at the right price have been strong under the conditions outlined in an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a Saturday team seeking revenge for a non-Saturday road SU loss of 30+ points in the last matchup vs. an opponent not off a conference favorite SU win of 7+ points.
Since 1991, these teams are 13-0 ATS, covering the spread by 13 ppg. With the Rockets coming on, they are catching a dispirited Bulldogs team at just the right time here, and we like their chances to not only cover the spread but to get the outright upset victory as well.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TOLEDO 34 FRESNO STATE 31
4 STAR SELECTION
Notre Dame +9 over MICHIGAN STATE
The Fighting Irish can match their win total from a season ago with a road win over the Spartans, and will be looking to do just that on Saturday night. Notre Dame finished a disastrous 2007 at 3-9, with their second and third wins coming in late November. Now, the Irish have a 4-game winning streak going back to last season.
Notre Dame followed an unimpressive win over San Diego State in this year’s opener with a solid 35-17 beating of Michigan last weekend. The win over the Wolverines exacted some revenge for a 38-0 loss to Michigan in Ann Arbor a season ago.
Michigan State opened the season with a 38-31 loss at California, but the team has rebounded from that setback with comfortable wins over Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic.
Notre Dame comes in brimming with confidence after taking advantage of several miscues by Michigan and scoring four touchdowns despite gaining just 260 total yards. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen managed the offense well last weekend and he threw for 147 yards and a pair of scores on 10-of-21 attempts. He was picked off twice though for the second straight game and that is an area he will need to improve upon. Still, Clausen has already thrown for five touchdowns, two shy of his total from last season. The offense line has even been impressive for the Irish, allowing no sacks through two games. That is a big accomplishment for a unit that gave up a whopping 58 sacks a year ago.
Despite allowing 388 total yards to Michigan last weekend, Notre Dame's defense was outstanding. The unit came up with countless big plays, finishing the game with six forced turnovers, including a 35-yard touchdown on a fumble return by Brian Smith. The Irish were also sound in their opener, when they limited SDSU to 345 total yards, while creating two turnovers. Their defense will certainly get tested here in East Lansing, Michigan.
In a game slowed by tough weather conditions, the Spartans used 259 yards on the ground to defeat the Owls, 17-0, last weekend. RB Javon Ringer continued his fast start to the season with a career day that consisted of 282 yards and two scores on 43 carries. Quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn't needed much last weekend with the success on the ground and he threw for just 88 yards and an interception.
After being torched for 38 points in an opening loss at Cal, the Spartans have yielded just 10 points over their last two games, although it’s been against non-BCS foes. Still, the defense is yielding 389 total ypg on the year and will get a test here from an under-rated Irish offense.
Notre Dame is usually a “public” team that offers little line value; however, last week the Irish were getting no respect and provided great line value as a home underdog. Here, as a big road underdog they again are the right side.
The visitor has won 7 in a row SU in the series, going 6-0-1 ATS, so Notre Dame is no stranger to beating the Spartans on their home field. We also find the Irish are 4-0 SU (+7 ppg) 4-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) on the road off an underdog SU win since 2002. In the reverse role, Michigan State 0-7 ATS, failing to cover by a mammoth 17.6 ppg, providing with a very strong dichotomy angle here favoring the visitors.
Another dichotomy angle show Notre Dame is 7-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) as an undefeated underdog off an ATS win since 1999, while the Spartans are 0-4 ATS (-13.4 ppg) in the reverse role.
Michigan State is simply not in a strong spot here as they are:
0-6 ATS (-18.5 ppg) as a home favorite of less than 16 points off a SU win
0-9-1 ATS (-17.4) as a favorite of 6+ points vs. an opponent off a lined SU win
0-6-0 (-12.7) as a home favorite off 2 home games
One of our handicapping strategies that we are employing here is to play ON a team getting line value as compared to the preseason pointspread on the game.
Unless there have been injuries or some other legitimate reason for the line movement, such as the team or opponent performing far above or below preseason expectations, the team benefiting from the line move should provide plenty of value.
The preseason line on this game was Michigan State by 3. Based upon each team’s play this season, there’s simply no reason for this line to move by nearly a TD. The Irish are 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS, including an upset win over Michigan. The Spartans are 2-1 SU & 1-1-1 ATS, losing as an underdog and winning 2 times as a favorite. Again, both teams have performed fairly close to expectations, so we are getting great line value with Irish and will gladly take the points in what should be a very hard-fought game that goes down to the wire.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MICHIGAN STATE 28 NOTRE DAME 27
3 STAR SELECTION
Ball State +3 over INDIANA
Two unbeaten teams put their perfect records at stake on Saturday when the Hoosiers host the Cardinals. Ball State has been an unstoppable force since the start of the season, winning their first three games for the first time since 1988. The Cards opened the year with a convincing, 48-14 win over 1-AA Northeastern and followed it up with strong wins over Navy and Akron.
Indiana has had an easy time with their first two matchups, pummeling Western Kentucky and 1-AA Murray State.
Nate Davis continued his outstanding play for Ball State, as the quarterback threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in leading the Cardinals to a 41-24 victory over Akron last week. Ball State finished with a whopping 491 total yards, and that led to 30 first downs. Not to be overlooked was the play of tailback MiQuale Lewis, who rushed for 154 yards and two touchdowns on 28 totes. It’s still early in the season, but Davis has proven to be one of the top signal callers in the nation, throwing for 916 yards and nine touchdowns against just three INTs.
The Ball State defense has played reasonably well, surrendering 385 total ypg and 20 ppg. The Cardinals have been able to make the big plays when it mattered, forcing six turnovers to go along with six sacks.
The Hoosiers' offensive success revolves around the team's ground game which is churning out 275 ypg. Overall, Indiana is averaging a strong 463 total ypg, and that has led to 38 ppg. Kellen Lewis has been the main source of production for Indiana, as the quarterback has not only thrown for 314 yards and two scores, but is also leading the team with 183 yards.
Defensively, the Hoosiers have been impressive, holding teams to just 215 total ypg and 8 ppg; however, we have to consider the level of competition with all of Indiana’s offensive and defensive stats. They have simply beat a 1-AA team and a Western Kentucky team that is moving from 1-AA to 1-A.
Ball State fans have been talking about the matchup for months, as this is “David vs. Goliath” for them as Indiana is an in-state rival. The Cardinals are 0-4 SU all-time vs. the Hoosiers, but this is the Cardinals best opportunity to finally claim a win in this series.
It’s about time for Indiana to come down to earth here, as they are:
1-11 SU (-16.6 ppg) & 0-12 ATS (-7.9 ppg) at home off a home game vs. an opponent off a lined SU win
0-4 SU (-16.5 ppg) & 0-4 ATS (-14.9 ppg) with more than 6 days rest off a SU win and not an underdog of 17+ points
0-4 ATS since 2002 as a favorite of less than 6 points
On the other hand, Ball State is a strong 7-1 SU (+9.9 ppg) & 8-0 ATS (+10 ppg) on the road with a line between -7 & +7.
Finally, our database research reveals that underdogs looking to avenge 2 losses with the one before last being a 1-point defeat, have been more than ready, despite facing rested opponents. Such is the case for Ball State and they qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
In Games 2-9, play ON an underdog seeking revenge for a SU loss last season and a 1-point SU loss in the matchup before that vs. an opponent with 7+ days rest not off a home favorite SU loss.
Since 1982 these teams have been a tremendous 15-0 ATS. Ball State has come close before against Indiana and we look for them to finally get over the hump and Hoosiers here.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BALL STATE 32 INDIANA 30
3 STAR SELECTION
Wake Forest +5 over FLORIDA STATE
Undefeated ACC foes collide in Tallahassee this weekend as the 24th-ranked Seminoles host the 18th-ranked Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest opened the season with a blowout victory over Baylor on the road before squeaking by a vastly improved Ole Miss team in week two. The team was idle last weekend and figures to be well-rested for Saturday night's showdown.
As for Florida State, it opened the season with back-to-back games against weak opponents. After crushing Western Carolina by a 69-0 final in the opener, the 'Noles knocked off Chattanooga last weekend, 46-7. The Demon Deacons represent a major leap in competition level.
Wake Forest is averaging over 35 ppg and 362 total ypg behind QB Riley Skinner, who has completed a stellar 75% of his passes for 487 yards with 5 TDs and no interceptions. While he does not play in a wide open, pass-happy offense, Skinner is a poised performer who rarely makes a bad decision. Against the Rebels two weeks ago, Skinner completed 32-of-43 passes for 267 yards and two touchdowns.
Opponents are scoring just under 3 TDs worth of points against the Deacons, which is yielding 305 total ypg. The run defense has been solid, permitting just 100 ypg and 3.2 ypc. With eight total takeaways in 2 games and an impressive 28% success rate for opponents on third down conversion attempts, Wake is certainly doing some very good things on defense.
Judging by the stats alone, Florida State's offense appears to be an unstoppable force. After all, the team is averaging 58 ppg and 528 total ypg, having scored 15 offensive touchdowns in eight quarters of football. But it is hard to get excited about those numbers considering it was against 2 1-AA foes. Three different quarterbacks have seen time under center, and Christian Ponder has the most impressive stats with six touchdown passes and no interceptions, and he’s expected to get the start here.
Defensively, Florida State has allowed just one touchdown this season. Their two opponents have averaged 170.0 ypg, but once again it is hard to put too much stock into those statistics.
It’s amazing how far the Florida State program and expectations have fallen. It’s bad enough to schedule 1 “Football Championship Series” team per year, but scheduling two of them in a row to open a season is an embarrassment to a once-mighty national power.
Opinions may differ on whether beating up on 2 1-AA teams prepares teams for real competition, but rather than offer ours, we can simply offer facts according the numbers from our database research which tells us that favorites of 8 points or less off 2 non-lined games are 0-8 SU & ATS since the early 1980s vs. opponents not off an underdog SU loss of 6+ points. Despite being small favorites in these games, the contests have not been close, with the favored teams losing outright by more than 3 TDs and failing to cover by more than 23 ppg on average.
The battle-tested Demon Deacons have game-planned well for the Seminoles, as they are 4-0 ATS vs. Florida State the last 4 seasons, winning the last 2 outright as underdogs, including 30-0 shutout in last trip to Tallahassee. Meanwhile, Florida State is 0-4 ATS with double revenge since 1999 and will have all they can handle here from the visitors that may be the best team in a weak ACC.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WAKE FOREST 24 FLORIDA STATE 23
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report
2 STAR SELECTION
ARKANSAS +9 over Alabama
The Crimson Tide has won its first three games this season, with the most impressive being a 34-10 thrashing of Clemson in the opener. After a modest 14-point triumph over Tulane in week two, the Tide blew out Western Kentucky last weekend. Now, they have jumped all the way up to #9 in the latest AP poll.
As for Razorbacks, they had last weekend off due to Hurricane Ike causing their game with Texas to be rescheduled. Arkansas has played just two games thus far and won them both, although the victories have not been terribly impressive. After barely beating Western Illinois in week one by a 28-24 final, the Hogs squeaked by Louisiana-Monroe in week two, 28-27.
Alabama has run the ball with great success, as they are averaging over 200 ypg on the ground while racking up 5 ypc. The top rusher for the Crimson Tide is Glen Coffee with 242 yards and a 6.5 ypc average. Quarterback John Parker Wilson has been a steady performer as expected, completing 62% of his passes with four scores and one interception. The Alabama defense has been outstanding, surrendering less than 8 ppg and 221 total ypg.
Arkansas is averaging 28 ppg and 450 total ypg, and the vast majority of the yardage has come through the air. Casey Dick is the team's quarterback, and he has stats nearly identical to ‘Bama’s QB, as he has completed 63% of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception. Petrino's offense proved to be explosive during his time at Louisville, and Dick is reaping the benefits of the pass-happy approach. Dick and the offense should get more comfortable and efficient with Petrino’s offense each game.
Alabama has a very young team, so it will be interesting to see how they do with a Top 10 ranking and good press. They will get a battle from an Arkansas team that is getting no respect, and if the Tide doesn’t show up with maximum focus, they could be in trouble here. As it is, Alabama is 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 2-21 points vs. an opponent off a SU win. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS as a conference home underdog of more than 7 points.
After 2 lackluster wins to start the season, teams have been very under-rated at the right price. Specifically, Game 3 underdogs of 3½-13 points off 2 SU wins & ATS losses are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS since 1991, blasting the spread by more than 18 ppg on average.
We look for the Razorbacks to play their best of the season here and at least keep this one close against a young Crimson Tide team that may suffer a letdown.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: ALABAMA 24 ARKANSAS 23
2 STAR SELECTION
AUBURN +2½ over LSU
In what could very well be the best game of the day, 2 SEC Top 10 teams battle with the #10 Tigers welcoming the #6 Tigers.
LSU, the defending national champions certainly enter this contest with a bulls eye on their back, as Auburn would love to knock them off. The champs have not been tested yet this season, as Les Miles' squad has routed 1-AA Appalachian State and one of the worst 1-A teams, North Texas.
Auburn has had a bit more of a challenge to start the season, including last week's 3-2 defensive struggle with Mississippi State. That followed a 34-0 shutout of Louisiana-Monroe in the season-opener and a 27-13 win over Southern Miss the following week.
Eleven of the last 18 games in this series have been decided by seven points or less, and we expect nothing less here. The home team has won eight straight dating back to 2000 demonstrating the importance of homefield in this matchup.
The defending national champs have looked sharp on the offensive side of the ball this year against inferior competition with untested quarterbacks Andrew Hatch and Jarrett Lee; however, they figure to be a bit in over their heads in this venue.
The LSU defense has yielded a mere 16 points in the first two games combined, but will be tested by Auburn this week. Tuberville's Tigers didn't exactly light up the scoreboard against Mississippi State last week, but the team did find a way to amass 315 yards. Turning the ball over three times certainly hindered their scoring opportunities. This is a unit that has shot itself in the foot on numerous occasions trying to work in a new spread offense.
They will be simplifying things here and get back to basics with a ground game that is the driving force of the offense. Over the first three games, the Tigers are averaging a healthy 205 ypg rushing the ball. Ben Tate has been solid thus far, averaging nearly six yards per carry and rolling up 278 yards and one TD in the first three outings. Brad Lester is a viable second option out of the backfield, netting just over four yards per carry.
While the Mississippi State game was not one for the offense to pin its hopes on, the Auburn defense was magnificent, limiting the Bulldogs to just 116 total yards of offense and six first downs.
Defensively, the two teams are obviously among the best in the country, but LSU will be without its leader in linebacker Darry Beckwith. Beckwith injured his knee in the victory over North Texas. This provides us a golden opportunity to play AGAINST a team without its starting middle linebacker. These players are usually the quarterback of the defense – the nerve center.
"Certainly, his experience is something that you just can't measure," coach Les Miles said. "His leadership has always been good. Certainly, he's a guy that this team enjoys being the center of the defense, but in the same vein, the guys need to step in there and be responsible for playing the same way.”
The absence of a middle linebacker will not normally move the spread, but they must make split-second decisions that can win or lose a ballgame on a single play. Beckwith is an All-American talent, so his play, experience, and leadership are likely to be sorely missed here, as Miles alluded to.
If the past four games between the two are any indication of what to expect, the game will come down to the final play. Auburn has won the last two meetings on its own field by 10-9 and 7-3 scores and is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 here vs. LSU.
Despite being the reigning national champions, LSU was 0-7 ATS as a conference favorite with less than 13 days rest last season, and they are 0-7-1 as a Saturday conference favorite of less than 16 points with less than 13 days rest under Les Miles.
Auburn is as strong an underdog as LSU is weak as a favorite, as they are 9-0 ATS (+16.4 ppg) as an underdog before Game 8 vs. opponents off 2 SU wins.
Many point to the Tigers pitiful scoring output last week and are ready to fade them here; however, they have bounced back strongly before off an ugly offensive showing. In fact, they are a super 8-0 ATS since 2004 off scoring less than 21 points and not favored by 41+ points.
We also have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that Auburn is active for that documents how undefeated home underdogs have come alive despite scoring less points in its last 2 games. It states:
Play ON an undefeated home underdog with less than 8 days rest off scoring less points in each of its last 2 games vs. an opponent not off same-season 4 favorite SU wins. These unbeaten home pups have been perfect since at least 1980, going 10-0 ATS.
Ultimately, it will be Auburn’s defense that wins the game, and their 3 strong defensive efforts to start the season have qualified them for another POWER SYSTEM that says:
In Game 4, play ON a Saturday undefeated home team (not a favorite of 17+ points) allowing an average of 9 ppg or less vs. an opponent off a SU win scoring less than 42 points.
Since 1996, these teams are 10-0 ATS, clobbering the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
This figures to be a classic Auburn-LSU tussle, and we’ll side with the home Tigers here once again.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: AUBURN 23 LSU 21
Steve Merill
Michigan St
Arizona
San Jose State
Ole Miss
Wayne Root
Chairman GOY - Tenn
No Limit PAC 10 GOY - Ariz St
Millionaire - SMU
Billionaire - Miss
Inside Circle - Auburn
Perfect Play - Toledo
Money Maker on Air Force
Sean Michaels
25 DIME PLAY
INDIANA
Players of America
LSU Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers
The Play: Auburn Tigers +3.0
Play Description: SEC Play of the Month
Star Value: 5* (50 Units)
Purchase hook if neccessary
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
The Play: Pittsburgh Panthers -1.0
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
The Play: Kent State Golden Flashes +3.0
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Purdue Boilermakers
The Play: Central Michigan Chippewas +10.5
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers
The Play: Tennessee Volunteers +7.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi Rebels
The Play: Mississippi Rebels -7.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Does anyone have brandon lang's info????
JEFFERSONSPORTS
EARLY SATURDAY RELEASE
Going to give out this early play for tomorrow. Vegas has made a mistake and is quickly making up for it. This game opened 7 and has already jumped to 9.5 so I am advising my clients to get on this game before it moves anymore. We have every angle and advantage that we look for in a game. Good luck,
UTAH -9.5
JEFFERSONSPORTS
SAN JOSE ST. +8
TOLEDO+7.5 -120
NORTH CAROLINA-2.5 -130
OLE MISS-6.5