DR BOB
3 Star Selection
SOUTH CAROLINA (-12.0) 34 Arkansas 10
Arkansas has improved since the early season under new coach Bobby Petrino, but the Razorbacks are still not close to South Carolina in terms of talent and the Hogs’ upset win over Tulsa last week sets them up in a very negative 15-55 ATS road letdown situation. Arkansas also applies to a negative 52-130-1 ATS situation that is completely different from the other angle. The situations combine to give South Carolina a 60% chance of covering the spread at a fair line, but I’d be playing the Gamecocks even if there were no favorable situations. South Carolina has one of the top defensive units in the nation, allowing 4.3 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team and that unit has a huge advantage over an Arkansas attack that is just 0.3 yppl better than average for the season with starting quarterback Casey Dick in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). Arkansas’ defense is average against both the run and the pass and the Hogs rate as 0.1 yppl better than average overall (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl). That unit matches up pretty evenly against a mediocre South Carolina offense that I rate as average with current personnel. The Gamecocks are actually 0.7 yppl worse than average overall this season (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl), but taking out the horrible stats of game 1 starting quarterback Tommy Beecher and excluding the passing stats of the 3 games that star receiver Kenny McKinley missed gets South Carolina to rate as average. In 4 games since McKinley returned the lineup the Gamecocks have averaged 5.0 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.0 yppl, so my adjustments are in line with reality. South Carolina doesn’t have an edge over Arkansas when they have the ball, but they have a huge edge when the Razorbacks have the ball and should be favored by about 20 points in this game. Arkansas has covered the spread in their last 4 games, but I still get South Carolina by 17 points even if I use Arkansas’ last 4 games only. In those 4 games the Razorbacks have actually been slightly worse offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) than they are for the season and they’ve been only slightly better defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team), so don’t overreact to their 4 game spread win streak. Combining the math model prediction with the situations give South Carolina a stellar 63% chance of covering at -12 points. I’ll take South Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less, for 4-Stars at -11 or less and I’d still play South Carolina as a 2-Star Best Bet up to -16 points.
3 Star Selection
Army 23 RICE (-11.0) 24
Army is an underrated team that covered the spread in 5 consecutive games before last week’s 9 point loss as an 8 point dog to Air Force and the Cadets’ option rushing attack matches up well against a Rice defense that is among the worst in the nation defending the run. The Owls have surrendered 5.9 yards per rushing play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 4.7 yprp against an average team, and Army has shown that they can move the ball against teams that don’t defend the run well. The Cadets are a horrible passing team, so being able to run the ball is key for them. They were able to do that in games against Tulane, Eastern Michigan, and Buffalo – averaging 319 rushing yards at 6.2 yprp in those 3 games before having trouble the last two weeks against the good run defenses of Louisiana Tech and Air Force. Army is also well equipped defensively to contain a good, but not great Rice offense that has averaged 6.3 yards pear play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. The Owls have scored over 40 points 6 times this season, but 5 of those were against bad defensive teams (SMU, Memphis, North Texas, S. Miss, and UTEP) while the other came against a slightly worse than average Tulane defense. Rice’s offense was held to 21 points or less by the two better than average defensive teams that they’ve faced (Vandy and Texas) and Army is surprisingly good defensively. The Cadets started the season playing horrible defense, but the addition of star LB Stephen Anderson to the lineup in week 5 has made a major impact after Anderson missed the early part of the season. Anderson is already 3rd on the team in tackles despite missing 2 games and barely playing in another, and he has 8.5 tackles for loss and 5 passes defended, which are very good numbers for a linebacker in so few games. With Anderson in the starting lineup the Army defense has allowed just 4.6 yppl and 16 points per game while rating at 0.6 yppl better than average. My math favors Rice by only 3 ½ points in this game and the Cadets apply to a 25-2-2 ATS subset of a 46-13-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I’ll take Army in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 2-Stars from +9 ½ to +7 points.
3 Star Selection
Clemson 24 FLORIDA ST. (-5.5) 20
I won with Clemson last week against an overrated Boston College team and I’ll take the Tigers again versus an overrated Florida State squad. Florida State’s 6-2 record was built against a pretty easy schedule of teams and their 4-2 mark in game against Division 1A competition is misleading given that the Seminoles have only out-gained those teams 5.1 yards per play to 5.0 yppl. After compensating for their opponents, the Seminoles rate at 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense and just 0.2 yppl better than average defensively – which is clearly mediocre. Clemson, meanwhile, is a misleading 2-4 in their 6 games against 1A opposition, as the Tigers have out-gained those teams 5.2 yppl to 4.5 yppl and while the Tigers rate at just average offensively they are 1.2 yppl better than average defensively after adjusting for their opposition. These teams are about the same offensively (both average), but Clemson has a HUGE edge defensively. The reason for Clemson’s 2-4 record in 6 games against 1A foes is a -12 turnover margin in those 6 games. Even with the turnover issues, the Tigers have lost just one game by more than 5 points and that was to #1 Alabama. My math model favors Clemson in this game and Florida State applies to a negative 59-108-2 ATS situation. I’ll take Clemson in a 3-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3 points.
3 Star Selection
New Mexico (-3.5) 32 UNLV 19
The only thing that UNLV had going for them was quarterback Omar Clayton, who averaged an impressive 7.0 yards per pass play with 18 touchdown passes against just 4 interceptions. Clayton was injured against TCU last week and backup Mike Clausen doesn’t appear to be capable of coming anywhere close to Clayton’s production. Clausen has averaged a pathetic 2.7 yppp on his 25 pass plays, but I’ll assume he’ll be considerably better than that given a full week of practice with the first team offense. Based on his limited stats so far, and the normal drop-off between a starter and an inexperienced backup, I’ll rate Clausen at 0.6 yppp worse than average, which is certainly on the generous side of the scale given how poorly he’s performed so far. UNLV is 0.2 yppl better than average for the season offensively, but I’ll rate the Rebels at 0.3 yppl worse than average with Clausen at quarterback. New Mexico is 0.3 yppl better than average defensively, so UNLV won’t have an easy time scoring with their backup quarterback. New Mexico’s offense was very bad early in the season, but the Lobos have been better recently with freshman Brad Gruner completing 68% of this passes the last 4 games after completing just 41% of his passes in his first 4 games. Even without factoring in the improvement the Lobos rate at a decent 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively thanks to a good rushing attack that has averaged 223 yards at 5.1 yards per rushing play. New Mexico has had trouble scoring against teams that defend the run well, but they’ve scored a good number of points against teams with bad run defenses. Since Gruner took over at quarterback the Lobos have faced two teams that are bad defending the run and they ran for 306 yards while scoring 35 points at New Mexico State while running for 419 yards and scoring 70 points against San Diego State. UNLV is horrible defending the run, allowing 240 yards per game at 5.6 yprp (against teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp against an average team). The Rebels are actually worse defending the pass, allowing 8.0 yards per pass play to teams that would average just 6.0 yppp against an average team. Overall, UNLV is 1.1 yppl worse than average on defense, so New Mexico should score plenty of points while their solid defense holds down a sub-par Rebels’ attack. My math model favors New Mexico by 8 ½ points in this game (it would have been 4 ½ points with Clayton playing) and the Lobos apply to a very good 53-8-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I’ll take New Mexico in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 2-Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.
2 Star Selection
**Illinois (-7.0) 38 Western Mich 23 (at Detroit)
Illinois is only 5-4 straight up but the Illini are a much better team than their record indicates. Illinois has averaged 6.5 yards per play on offense against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and that attack should exploit a sub-par Western Michigan stop unit that rates at 0.4 yppl worse than average. The Broncos have only faced two better than average offensive teams this season and they gave up 7.2 yppl and 47 points to Nebraska and 7.7 yppl and 38 points to Central Michigan. My math model projects 515 total yards at 7.3 yppl for Illinois in this game. The Illini defense started the season poorly and couldn’t stop the run early on, but the addition of run stuffing DT Josh Brent into the rotation in week 3 has changed that. Illinois allowed an average of 222 rushing yards at 6.5 yards per rushing play to Misouri and Eastern Illinois the first two games without Brent, but they’ve been 0.9 yprp better than average against the run in 7 games with Brent in the lineup (4.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yprp against an average team). Illinois is 0.9 yppl better than average overall defensively in those 7 games and they have an advantage over a Broncos’ attack that I rate at 0.4 yppl better than average. I project Western Michigan with a modest 330 yards at 4.9 yppl in this contest and Illinois has a huge overall advantage from the line of scrimmage. The only negative is Illini quarterback Juice Williams penchant for throwing interceptions (12 in 9 games this year) and Western Michigan’s Tim Hiller not throwing many picks (just 5 this season), but my math model still favors the Illini by 14 ½ points even after factoring that in. Western Michigan is a good MAC team, but the Broncos are only 5-20-1 ATS as a regular season underdog against winning teams since 2001 and they are out-classed here. I’ll take Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**USC (-21.0) 38 California 10
USC has the nation’s top defense and I rate the Trojans’ offense at #8, but their slip up against Oregon State may keep the best overall team in the nation out of the National Championship game. Pete Carroll will continue to try to run up the score to impress the pollsters and a convincing win over a good Cal team would certainly be worth some extra votes. The Bears are known for their offense under Jeff Tedford, but it’s the defense that has made this year’s Bears a quality team. Cal rates as the 8th best defensive team in the nation, allowing just 4.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense, but that unit is at a disadvantage against a Trojans’ attack that is 1.5 yppl better than average (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). USC’s offense has been a little inconsistent, but the Trojans did gain 5.6 yppl and score 35 points against Ohio State, who ranks just ahead of the Bears in my defensive ratings. Cal’s defense has also struggled some on the road, allowing 35 points in a loss at Maryland (although on just 4.8 yppl) and 42 points on 6.3 yppl in a loss at Arizona, so USC should score 30 points or more in this game. Cal’s offense has averaged 6.0 yards per rushing play thanks to the big play abilities of running backs Jahvid Best (736 yards at 6.8 ypr) and Shane Vereen (555 yards at 5.5 ypr), but the Bears’ pass attack has been hindered by inexperienced receivers and has been just average this season. Nate Longshore and Kevin Riley have both seen plenty of action and the starting job is a week to week decision, but Longshore has been 0.4 yards per pass play better than average (compared to Riley’s 0.1 yppp worse than average rating) and I’ll assume Longshore will start this week with Riley nursing a concussion he sustained last week. USC has the best defense I’ve seen in years, allowing 3.4 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team, and the Trojans have allowed more than 3.5 yppl only once all season (they allowed 5.0 yppl in their loss at Oregon State). They’ve also given up more than 10 points just once all season. Cal is capable of topping 10 points if Best can bust a breakaway run or two, but I don’t see the Bears driving the ball down the field without a big play – and USC simply doesn’t give up many big plays. Cal’s impressive 26-16 win last week over Oregon sets the Bears up in a negative 23-81-4 ATS road letdown situation today and USC applies to very strong 91-26-2 ATS situation that went 2-0 last week with Texas Tech and Oklahoma. That’s actually just one of many situations that favor the Trojans this week and USC also applies to a few good teams trends. The Trojans are tough to beat when their offense is playing well and USC is 17-3-1 ATS at home laying less than 35 points after a game in which they scored 35 points or more. The Trojans also tend to play their best late in the season and they are now 32-10 ATS from game 8 on since 2001. I’ll take USC in a 2-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less.
Strong Opinion
UTAH 20 TCU (-1.5) 16
TCU has the nation’s 2nd best defense in my ratings, but the unbeaten Utes are a good team too and qualify in a very good 60-21-1 ATS situation. Utah’s offense has been 0.4 yards per play better than average this season, so the Utes are at a distinct disadvantage against a dominating TCU stop unit that rates at 1.7 yppl better than average (3.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). However, Utah has a very good defense that is 1.0 yppl better than average (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl) and TCU is 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively with starting quarterback Andy Dalton in the game, averaging 5.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. So, Utah’s defense has a 1.6 yppl advantage over the Horned Frogs’ offense, and the Utes are just 0.1 yppl worse than TCU overall from the line of scrimmage. Utah also has better special teams, but TCU has a 1.9 points edge in projected turnovers. Overall, this game is a toss-up and the situation favors Utah, who also has a tradition of money making success as an underdog (45-16-2 ATS, 7-4-1 ATS under coach Whittingham). I’ll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at pick or underdog and I’d take Utah in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (at -115 odds or better) or more. I’ll also lean with the Under.
Strong Opinion
Georgia (-11.0) 31 KENTUCKY 16
Georgia may be a bit deflated after losing to Florida, but they were beaten so convincingly that they are more likely to bounce-back than feel sorry for themselves, as they might have had it been a close loss. The Bulldogs, in fact, apply to a very good 106-48-2 ATS blowout bounce-back situation that actually just won last week with Kentucky after they were whipped by Florida. Kentucky has a good defense, but he Wildcats have lost their two best offensive players in the last month, as top receiver and star punt returner Dicky Lyons was injured and lost for the season in week 7 against South Carolina while top running back (and second leading receiver) Derrick Locke was lost for the season 3 weeks ago against Arkansas. Locke is also a very good kick returner (28.5 average) and not having Lyons and Locke returning punts and kicks has hurt the special teams. The offense hasn’t suffered noticeably yet, but the Wildcats have scored a total of just 19 points the last two weeks and rate at 0.7 yards per play worse than average for the season. Georgia’s defense has been about average, relatively, the last two weeks against great offensive teams LSU and Florida, but they’ve handled the mediocre and bad offensive teams that they’ve faced this season. Georgia’s offense is 1.5 yppl better than average, so they have a pretty good edge over a Kentucky defense that is 0.6 yppl better than average, and my math model favors the Bulldogs by 13 points after putting all the pieces together. Normally, I’d play a pretty strong situation applying to a team with some positive line value, but Georgia is just 8-19 ATS after playing Florida over the years (2-5 ATS under coach Richt), so I’ll consider Georgia a Strong Opinion at -11 points or less rather than making the Bulldogs a Best Bet.
Strong Opinion
IOWA 23 Penn St. (-7.5) 24
Penn State has been an underrated team most of this season (7-1 ATS), but the line has caught up to the Nittany Lions great team and my math model favors Penn State by just 6 ½ points over a good Iowa team that is better than their 5-4 record. The reason for favoring Iowa in this game is not the small bit of line value but rather a 16-59-1 ATS situation that applies to Penn State. That angle plays against unbeaten teams at this stage of the season and Penn State also applies to a negative 31-77 ATS favorite off a bye angle. Iowa is certainly capable of playing with Penn State, as the Hawkeyes have a very strong rushing attack (5.6 yards per rushing play), a better than average quarterback in Ricky Stanzi, and a good defense that has allowed 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. I respect Penn State enough not to make this game a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
JEFFERSONSPORTS
NEW MEXICO -4.5
Matt Fargo
Louisville Cardinals / Pittsburgh Panthers
9* Pittsburgh Panthers -6
**9** Big East Conference Game of the Year Louisville could not have had a worse loss than the one last week in Syracuse. It was the second straight season that the Orange defeated the Cardinals and while a loss like that can normally fire up a team the following week, it will be the opposite this week against the Panthers. This is not a very good team and its 5-3 record is skewed because of a soft schedule played thus far. The best team it has played thus far is between Connecticut and Kentucky and both of those games resulted in home losses.
The Panthers are coming off a hard fought four-overtime victory over Notre Dame but they are not going to lay down here. That out of conference win was nice but Pittsburgh is more concerned about the Big East Conference right now and sitting a game behind West Virginia means this is a must win to keep pace. The Panthers have two week after this to get ready for their game at Cincinnati so there is no chance for a lookahead, only for a full out effort.
The loss in Syracuse last weekend should have been the fifth straight road loss for the Cardinals dating back to last season. A win in Memphis should never have happened as they were outgained by 182 yards. Louisville has now been outgained in three of its last four games and was outrushed for just the second time this season. That was against a team that cannot rush the ball nor stop the run and it now faces a team that can do both, something it has not seen much of this season.
Pittsburgh is 48th in the nation in rushing offense and 43rd in rushing defense. Those rankings are nothing special but they show balance and that is the key here. The Cardinals allowed 126 rushing yards combined in their first three games but they have given up 121.2 ypg over their last five games and that includes allowing just eight yards against South Florida. Pittsburgh has rushed for at least 138 yards in each of its last five games, putting up 189.4 ypg over that stretch. 9*Pittsburgh Panthers
Frank Patron
30,000 Unit Lock
Alabama
Alex Smart
Texas A&M +27.5
Spylock
1 unit Nevada
NORTH COAST SPORTS
BIG 12 GOW...TEXAS TECH -3'
EARLY BIRD POW...MISSOURI -25'
COMP UNDER DOG POW...SMU +3
POWER PLAY 4* POW....NOTRE DAME +3'
#2 ECONOMY CLUB PLAY...RUTGERS -13'
PAC 10 POW...UCLA +7'
BIG DOG POW...UTEP +9
DOC
4 Unit Play.Take Wisconsin Badgers -9½ over Indiana Hoosiers
Except for last week, I have made good money going against the Badgers in 2008. Now it seems like the right opportunity to side with Bucky. They are a veteran team that now finds themselves in a soft portion of their schedule and will be favored in all of them. They need to win all of them to keep their hopes alive. The offensive line is once again in tact and they will provide holes for Hill and Clay. The Hoosier defense is beaten up and this will be their ninth game in nine weeks. Injuries have also taken their toll on IU and unlike Wisconsin they have not returned into the line-up. The Hoosiers bowl hopes are gone and look for a small crowd, as the Badgers are finally back on track for success. Wisconsin 34, Indiana 14.
4 Unit Play.Take Iowa Hawkeyes +7½ over Penn State Nittany Lions
Big Three Game. This Hawkeye team continues to improve each week and despite a tough loss last week to Illinois their defense stepped up and controlled the rushing attack. Penn State is coming off a bye and a win here would almost guarantee a spot in the national championship; however, winning will not be as easy as it sounds.. The Hawks defense will give this Lion offense problems and Iowa has one of the top running backs in the country in Shonn Greene. The big key for Iowa will be QB Stanzi and if he can avoid major mistakes expect this to be a low scoring game. With that in minds and rain mix a possibility the points look very attractive. In fact I will call the upset as the homer plays their best game of the year. Iowa 20, Penn State 17.
5 Unit Play.Take Ohio State Buckeyes -11 over Northwestern Wildcats
Big Three Game. The Cats pulled a big upset last week but reality will set back in on Saturday. A win last week kept the line in order and this is very manageable for a strong Ohio State team. The Buckeyes are coming off of a bye and look for them to play power football in the remaining three games. True Ohio State has been inconsistent all year and did not score an offensive touchdown against Purdue, which still amazes me. But like it or not, the talent gap between these two is huge and Ohio State lead 45-0 at halftime in their meeting last year. Injuries have hit the Cats hard this season and sneaking up on teams like they did last week will not work here. Ryan Field is not much of a home field advantage and with 25,000 Ohioans expected to make the trip, the may outnumber the home faithful. The Buckeyes defense will dominate and the offense will show their stuff. Ohio State 42, Northwestern 10.
4 Unit Play.Take Western Michigan Broncos +7 over Illinois Fightin Illini
The Illini find themselves in a real flat spot, as they step outside the conference after beating Iowa last week and have Ohio State on deck. This is the type of situation that Big 10 opponents find themselves getting beat. As for the Broncos, they bring one of the best pass offenses in the country. As good as that sounds, they also have one of the worst defense in the country. A big key for their success will be whether or not they can stop QB Juice Williams. The Illinois rushing attack has been suspect which could help them defense the pass. Illinois has struggled to rush the football and that could help the Broncos stay in this game. In what should be a huge scoring affair, the points look attractive and remember this game is played in Detroit, giving the home state team another advantage.. Illinois 35, Western Michigan 31.
4 Unit Play.Take Colorado Buffaloes -10 over Iowa State Cyclones
Big Three Game. This may be Colorado’s last chance to win as they finish with Oklahoma State and Nebraska with both of them on the road. Neither team is playing very well at the moment but Colorado did outgain two of their last three opponents despite failing to cover any of their last three games. Coach Hawkins knows the importance of this home game. If they lose here, recruiting will suffer. They will also have revenge on their minds, as they lead 21-0 in the 2007 meetings, but lost 31-28. The Cyclones have too many problems to make a game of this, as the homer gets the call. Colorado 35, Iowa State 10.
4 Unit Play.Take Tennessee Volunteers -26 over Wyoming Cowboys
Not only a step down in class, but a complete staircase is what separates these two institutions. Granted Coach Fulmer is on the way out; however, his players like playing for him. For a struggling team, playing Wyoming would be the way to get healthy. The Cowboys got a win last week in Laramie, but the celebration will end here. Tennessee has next week off so I see no reason why they will hold back, as a rout looks obvious. Tennessee 42, Wyoming 3.
Bob Akmens
20* San Sose St -7
10* Louisville +6
10* Minnesota -8
10* Rice -9.5
10* Air Force -10
ASA
4-Star Ohio State (-11) over @ Northwestern
Talk about line value. Ohio State is an 11-point favorite in this game when they basically have the same team from a year ago when they were favored by 24 at home. Yes, Ohio State isn’t as good offensively as they were a year ago but the defense is again outstanding. On defense, Northwestern is without standouts defensive end Vince Browne and linebacker Malcolm Arrington, who is out for the season. Both have knee injuries. Offensively the Wildcats are now without running back Omar Conteh after suffering a knee injury in a non-contact drill at Wednesday's practice. Conteh became the starter after Tyrell Sutton suffered a regular-season ending wrist injury against Indiana a few weeks back. The Wildcats will now turn to their 3rd and 4th string backs that have a combined 10 career carries for 20 yards. That makes Northwestern one-dimensional on offense against a Buckeye defense which ranks 7th in the nation in total yards allowed. Ohio State’s stop unit held a potent Penn State offense that averages 459.8 ypg, 41.8 ppg to just 281 total yards and just 13-points two weeks ago. OSU has held 7 of their nine foes this season to 17-points or less with their only really bad showing coming at USC. With a week off you can bet the OSU coaching staff will have the Buckeye’s defense ready to play here against the Wildcats gimmick offense. Last year Ohio State beat Northwestern 58-7 and lead 45-0 at halftime. In fact the last 3 years the Buckeyes have won this series by a combined score of 160-24 which also saw OSU favored by 20+ points in all three games. With a week to put the PSU loss behind them the Buckeyes will be anxious to get back on the football field and pound someone. Northwestern is off a fortunate win over Minnesota as they picked off a pass with just 12 seconds left in the game and returned it for the game winning TD. Statistically, Minnesota outplayed them but that late INT was the difference. NU has not played a very tough schedule and is over-rated by the oddsmakers in our opinion. Northwestern did beat Minnesota and Iowa but those teams are middle of the pack Big 10 teams. The one good team they played was Michigan State and they got beat 20-37. Ohio State on the other hand has faced a much better schedule and just won at Michigan State 45-7. Ohio State is a solid 9-4-1 ATS on the road when coming off a straight up home loss and they have covered 13 of their last 17 away. Northwestern on the other hand is just 4-10 ATS at home when coming off a SU road underdog win and just 1-5 ATS as a double digit dog in that same setting. We have gotten some great reports out of the Ohio State camp this week that it’s been a great two weeks of practice and Tressel has the team really focused for this Saturday’s game. A highly motivated OSU team that is anxious to get back on the field will pound the Wildcats this weekend. Lay the small number with Ohio State.
4-Star Nebraska (-1) over Kansas
The Huskers have been waiting for this rematch for nearly a year now. KU was clicking on all cylinders during last year’s game and the Huskers were reeling coming into the contest having last four straight games. The Jayhawks put up 76 points on the Huskers and most have called it the worst defensive performance in Nebraska history. It was the highest point total a Nebraska defense has ever allowed. The players and coaches were thoroughly embarrassed after the last which was to be expected. Wide receiver Todd Peterson said he was so distraught that he couldn’t even look his parents in the eye after the loss. Now they get KU in Lincoln where the Jayhawks have not won since 1968! Look for an absolute supreme effort from Husker Nation. While Kansas was one of the best teams in the country last year record wise (12-1), much of that was due to the fact that they benefited from a huge discrepancy in turnovers leading the nation at +21. Many times team “come back to earth” after a season like that. This season they rank just 57th in turnover margin which has been enough to give them two more losses already this year (5-3 record) than they had all of last season. We felt they would be an over rated team this year and they are just that. On the road, “Rock Chalk Jayhawk” has not been impressive this year. They have played just three road games all season a come in at 1-2 SU. Their only win was at anemic Iowa State 35-33. In that game they trailed 20-0 at half to the winless in the Big 12 Cyclones. That close win by Kansas tells us a lot as ISU has been blown out in every other Big 12 game this year. In fact, minus their 2-point loss to Kansas, the Cyclones have lost by an average of 28 PPG in Big 12 play. KU’s other road games were both losses at Oklahoma and South Florida. Before beating a down trodden KSU team last week, this team gave up 108 total points in just two weeks vs. Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Granted those teams are very good on offense, however it showed us some serious kinks in their defensive armor. Nebraska needs this win to be bowl eligible and they have played very well in three of their last four games. Last week’s 62-28 loss to Oklahoma was VERY deceiving as the Huskers turned the ball over three times in their first five offensive PLAYS which got them down 28-0 very quickly. After that they actually played well racking up 418 total yards on the road and getting outgained by just 90 total yards. Before that the Huskers whipped Baylor and Iowa State getting back to back wins. They also took Texas Tech to the wire in Lubbock losing in overtime 37-31 and are the ONLY TEAM to out gain the Red Raiders this season. These two teams have nearly identical numbers as they are within just 6 yards or fewer of each other in offensive yard per game and defensive yards per game. With some huge motivation for Nebraska and great home field advantage (remember KU has not won here since 1968), this is a great play. We’ll take Nebraska at home here.
3-Star Virginia (+3.5) @ Wake Forest
We really like the way the Cavs have been playing. Head coach Al Groh has turned this team around after a terrible start and they continue to be extremely under rated by the odds makers. UVA had won 4 straight games straight up (all as an underdog) before finally losing in overtime last week to Miami (FL). The Cavs were actually staring their fifth straight win in the face with a 17-10 and less than 1:00 minute remaining in the game. The Canes scored late to tie the game and then won in overtime when UVA RB Cedric Pearman lost a fumble. A tough way to lose, however Virginia showed no signs of slowing up as they played another solid game vs. Miami but came up just short. While Virginia is playing very well, Wake is headed in the opposite direction. The Demon Deacons have now lost 3 of their last 5 games with their only wins coming against a Clemson team with big time internal problems and an overtime win vs. Duke. Those two wins came by a total of just 8 points. Wake Forest is simply vastly over rated this year. Their offense has struggled big time ranking 101st in total offense, 103rd in rush offense and 101st in scoring offense. Before last week’s 33-30 overtime win over Duke, the Deacs offense had put up 12, 17, 12, 0 & 10 points in their previous 5 games. That won’t cut it against a great improved Virginia defense that has allowed an average of just 13 PPG (in regulation) in their last five games. WF is definitely not playing like they should be favored here and they probably shouldn’t be. Wake head coach Jim Grobe and his team thrive on the underdog role. They are outstanding when getting points. However when they are “supposed to” win, they seem to fall flat with regularity. This team is just 1-3 ATS this year as a favorite and only 12-25 in the role going all the way back to 2000. Virginia, on the other hand, has actually won their last four games out right as a dog and they are 14-7 ATS in that role. Expect Virginia to bounce back after last week’s tough loss and continue to play well. Wake has been out gained in 4 of their last 5 games and continues to falter. UVA showed two weeks ago that the road doesn’t intimidate them as they went to Georgia Tech and won 24-17 out gaining a very good Yellow Jacket team by 137 yards. They do it again on Saturday and get the out right win at Wake Forest.
3-Star Oklahoma State (+3.5) @ Texas Tech
What a great spot to side with a fantastic team as an underdog. The Cowboys have been great all season long and they have shown that they are not fazed on the road in big games. This team beat Missouri on the road and their only loss was @ Texas 28-24. As good as OSU is, Texas Tech will have an awfully hard time focusing on this opponent after last week’s thriller. Most in Lubbock tabbed it as the biggest game EVER for Tech and they had to score on a 28-yard TD pass with just one second left to get the win. The fans and players were whipped into a frenzy over their win against the #1 ranked in-state big boy Longhorns. A tough task to turn around and play that well again the following Saturday. We don’t think they’ll do it. OSU has an offense that is extremely tough to defend. They run the ball as well as anyone in the nation at 273 yards per game. QB Zac Robinson is no slouch himself completing 69% of his passes and he has thrown 20 TD passes on the year. They have put up 50 or more points in five games this year so one thing we know, they will be able to score with Tech in this one. The Raiders will not run away and hide here. And in fact, if Oklahoma State can take advantage of a Tech letdown and get a lead here, they will be able to lean heavily in their dominant running game and eat clock. That keeps Tech’s offense off the field which is what the Cowboys are looking to do here. Okie State definitely has that ability as they ripped apart the Raider defense last year for 366 yards rushing in their 49-45 win. The OSU defense has also improved greatly as the year has gone on. They have played very well in their big games holding Chase Daniel and Missouri to just 23 points in Columbia and Colt McCoy and Texas to only 28 points in Texas. Those were both season lows for each of those offensive juggernauts. If they do the same here, which we believe they can, they will win this game because we do not see Tech slowing down the Cowboy offense. Oklahoma State has covered EVERY game this year and 10 of their last 11. The roll continues and Okie State wins this game out right and takes Tech out of the National Championship race.
Spylock
All 1 unit
Minny
Penn St.
Duke
Nevada
Teddy Covers
20* Southern Miss
TheProSource
Rutgers -13 to -14 lay up to -17 vs Syracuse
HUGE game for 3-5 Rutgers to keep Bowl eligible. Rutgers should have momentum, having won back-to-back games over two of the better teams in the conference. Syracuse will be flat, entering off a nice upset win over Louisville, the first FBS win of the season, & just their 2nd win of the year.Rutgers has delivered solid defensive numbers and should pull away with their new found "mo".Syr 2-18 as a 17 or less conf rd dogs We have a momentum system to:PLAY ON: Any NCAA team coming off scoring at least what Rutgers did their last game if it was a Winning effort as a double-digit underdog, now playing as dble-digit home favorite vs a team with Syr WL%. 30-10, 75% since 1983with 5 straight wins the last 2 seasons.
Boise St - 32 lay up to -36 vs Utah St
shutout home win system 44-15-1 75% 2-1 in 2008 home team momentum system 26-6-2 2-1 in '08 10-3-1 L3ys..1 pt off qualifyingUnbeaten Boise is somehow flying a bit under the radar.This BCS bowl contender keeps rolling along while the other small conference entries fade out. Utah St enters this game off a major upset win and will be flat. This is a BIG spread,but ya can't go against the Broncos at home, especially since they need those BIG showings. Boise St is allowing LESS THAN 10 ppg, and this will be another blowout.
USC -17 lay up to -20 vs California
shutout home win system 44-15-1 75% 2-1 in 2008 home team momentum system 26-7-2 .79% 2-1 in '08 10-3-1 L3ysThe talk at USC is usually about offense, but we'll mention the defense, allowing just over 7 ppg game and only 211ypg TOTAL. They have allowed just TWO 2 TD's since Oct4th and have shut out 3 of their past 4 opponents. Cal has not played well on the road this season with both losses coming away from home. USC will step up for this big game,especially since HC Carroll is complaining about the BCS scores. USC is playing as well as any team in the Nation,but are placed anywhere from # 6 to # 10. This is the game that USC has been counting on to make the noise for the ranking upgrade. USC has been dominant at home and ther ewill be no lack of focus for this big game. Cal is likely to slip up on the road here after a big win last week.
GAMEDAY
4*HOUSTON-15'
3*RICE-9'
3*OREGON-14
2*ILLINOIS-7'
2*COLO ST+10
2*UCLA+8
FatJack
ARMY+10
ALABAMA -3
NOTRE DAME +3
NEW MEXICO -4 1/2
GEORGIA -12
TEXAS TECH -3