Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-CFB
(three straight wins by the combined scores of 120-13!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on San Jose State at 8:00 ET. Every team is chasing Boise State in the WAC this year and the Spartans missed their chance at the Broncos this season, losing 33-18 on a Friday night (10/24) at home. However, that's nothing to be ashamed of and Dick Tomey has his team at 6-3 (4-1 in the WAC) and poised for a second bowl trip in the last three seasons with a strong finish (Spartans won nine games including a win in the New Mexico Bowl in 2006). As for La Tech, second-year head coach Derek Dooley has all sorts of problems. The team has little balance, as the QB position is a mess. Bennett has taken most of the snaps but he's completing 39.5 percent on the season and has two TDs in 167 attempts this season. has seen more action the last few weeks but he's connecting on only 50.8 percent with one TD in 63 attempts. The running game is good (189.0 YPG / 4.7 YPC) with Porter (690 YR / 5.3 YPC) and Jackson (354 YR / 4.0 YPC) both contributing but the problem here is that San Jose State defends the run well, allowing 108.4 YPG and 3.4 YPC. What's more, while the Bulldogs have played well at home with upsets over Mississippi St and Fresno State, they are 0-4 SU and ATS on the road, scoring a grand total of 24 points (6.0 per!). The Spartans gave Myles Eden his second start of the season last week (Cal transfer Kyle Reed has a bruised tailbone and has underachieved) and he delivered by going 23-of-31 for a career-high 295 yards and his first two TD passes of the year. RB Yonus Davis is not up to his 2006 form (1,007 YR / 6.2 YPC) after carrying just three times in '07 before getting hurt, but he does have 522 YR with a 4.8 average. The Spartans won't overlook Tech (even with the team's poor road mark), as they lost last year in Ruston, after a big comeback (trailed 24-6 before losing 27-23) fell just short. The home team has won six of the last seven in this matchup and a win here gives the Spartans a great shot at a nine-win regular season and another bowl trip. That's big news in San Jose. Weekend Wipeout Winner on San Jose State.
Good Luck...Larry
Big Money
Nc St
Diamond Sports Club
NCAAF Double Diamond is on Florida St -4
BIG AL
Saturday - Football
4* South Carolina-10
4* Oklahoma State+3
3* North Carolina-4.5
3* LSU+4
3* San Jose State-8
3* Iowa+7.5
3* Louisville+6.5
1* USC-18.5
1* Nebraska+1.5
1* Georgia-10.5
Red Dog Sports (Northcoast Community Line)
36-24 (60%) in college FB
3* Okla State at Texas Tech (Sat.)
Over 69.5
These 2 played a 49-45 (94 points!) game last year as Harrell was 46-67 for 646 yards and 5 TD's with 0 int's. The total in that game was 72. Okla State has played unders in 3 of their last 4 games (which keeps this total down below 70) but have gone over in 17 of their last 24 games.
The OSU Cowboys are led by QB Zack Robinson, who can pass and run. In last year's game there were only 4 punts. I think the line in this game will go up to 70 or more. Look for plenty of points.
Okla State/TT over 69.5 points
Brandon Lang
Saturday
40 Dime Alabama - (if your sports book has a 3-1/2, buy the half point and lay just 3 points).
15 Dime Teaser - Penn State & San Jose State
FREE - Oklahoma St
Youngstown Connection:
Alabama
Ok State
Fla
Indian Cowboy
Colorado St +10
Louisville +6.5
Kentucky +12 POD
BEN BURNS
BIG GAME ALERT
I'm taking the points with IOWA. I won't be at all surprised if we see another undefeated team go down this afternoon. Penn State boasts a strong team and is having an excellent year. Iowa is a much better team than most people believe though and the Hawkeyes excellent defense gives them a legit chance to pull the upset. Yes, the Hawkyes are only 5-4 on the season. However, a closer look shows that their four losses came by an average of just a field goal and that NONE of them came by more than five points. In its last game here, Iowa dismantled Wisconsin by a score of 38-16. While the Nittany Lions won last season's meeting, note that the Hawkeyes won the previous five games in this series, including a 26-14 victory the last time the teams met here. Joe Paterno knows he's in for a battle. The legendary coach was quoted as saying: "...Iowa is a good football team. In fact, year in and year out, I think Iowa is as well-coached and has as tough kids as anybody that we play against..." Despite this year's success, the Nittany Lions are still just 7-13-1 ATS their last 21 conference games. They're also 2-4 ATS the last six times they were listed as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. During the same stretch, the Hawkeyes were 2-0 ATS as home underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 point range. The Hawkeyes are outscoring opponents by a 32-9 margin here at home this season. The Hawkeyes haven't forgotten last year's loss at Happy Valley and they'd love nothing more than to be the team that spoils Penn State's perfect season. Behind another big game from their defense, look for the Hawkeyes to be involved in another game that comes down to the wire, earning at least the cover. *Big 10 GOM
BEN BURNS
EARLY BEST BET
I'm taking the points with KENTUCKY. Last week's 49-10 blowout loss vs. Florida notwithstanding, it's well known that the Bulldogs are a very talented team. As a result, most of the betting public expects them to bounce back with a blowout victory of their own. I feel that will be easier said than done though. No matter how good a team might be, it's not always easy to immediately recover from that type of beating. While the Bulldogs are still licking their wounds and thinking about what might have been, they'll faced a fired-up Wildcats team which is coming off a confidence-building road win at Mississippi State and which has played outstanding defense all season. The Kentucky defense was especially tough against the run last week, limiting Mississippi State to 43 yards on 27 attempts. Besides Florida (and that came on the road) only South Carolina (which had 24) has scored more than 20 points against this team. Overall, the Wildcats' defense is surrendering a mere 12.8 points and 276 yards per game at home. The last two series meetings were both decided by 11 points or less with Kentucky scoring a 24-20 upset the last time the teams met here. Interestingly, Georgia was also coming off a loss vs. Florida prior to that game and had a game against Auburn on deck. That's the situation here again this season, as Georgia again has the rival Tigers on deck. I expect the Wildcats defense to allow them to hang within the generous number and I won't be surprised if they score another upset. *Best Bet
BEN BURNS
BIG CHALK GAME OF YEAR
I'm laying the points with TENNESSEE. It's tough being the coach of an SEC program with big expectations. Just ask Phillip Fulmer. An excellent career winning percentage and plenty of past success wasn't enough to save Fulmer from being forced into resignation. Just because the Vols haven't been able to compete with the conference heavyweights the past few seasons doesn't mean that they still can't destroy a non-conference weakling like Wyoming though! The last time that the Vols faced an unranked opponent, they mauled Mississippi State by a score of 34-3. In fact, the Vols are 5-0 SU/ATS their last five against teams with losing records. The Bulldogs are a lot better than the Cowboys, too. Wyoming beat a bad San Diego State team last week. However, prior to that, the Cowboys had lost five straight games and those losses came by a combined score of 207-30, or an average of 41-6! Note that the Vols are 2-0 against Wyoming, most recently crushing the Cowboys 47-7 in 2002. I feel that the Fulmer situation will help us here. For starters, Fulmer has been on the hot season since 2005 and it's nice for the players to finally know what's going on. More importantly, I feel that the players will show some pride and go all out for their legendary coach in his final homecoming game here at Tennessee. Note that the Vols are 15-1 under Fulmer in their homecoming games and that they won those games by an average of 25 points. The Vols are hungry for a blowout victory and I feel that Wyoming, which has been outscored by an average score of 40.7 to 2.3 in going 0-3 ATS on the road, represents the perfect victim. Look for the Vols to rise to the occasion for Fulmer and give their fans something to cheer about by delivering a one-sided beat-down. *big chalk GOY
BEN BURNS
SEC MAIN EVENT
I'm taking the points with LSU. As you know, this is a huge game for both teams. Alabama is undefeated and looking to keep its national championship dreams alive. The Crimson Tide are also looking for revenge after the Tigers defeated them last season. As for LSU, it's still trying to keep it's (very slim) national title dreams alive. Perhaps more importantly, the Tigers desperately want to be the team that hands former coach Nick Saban his first loss. While the Crimson Tide have the higher ranking and better record, the teams have both averaged a very similar number of points. Alabama has averaged 32.2 points per game. LSU has averaged 32.5, including 38.2. While the Crimson Tide have allowed fewer points, the LSU defense is also very solid. Through the season, the Tigers are allowing only 297.2 yards per game. When comparing numbers, keep in mind that LSU has faced arguably tougher SEC teams. Both teams have played Georgia. LSU has also faced Florida, Auburn and South Carolina. Conversely, the Tide have faced Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas. (Both teams have played Georgia.) The Tigers have won five straight meetings in the series. They've also won 18 of their past 20 games here and only one loss came by more than two points. Playing at home and getting more than a field goal, I feel they provide us with excellent value and I won't be surprised if another undefeated team goes down here. *SEC Main Event
BEN BURNS
PAC 10 GAME OF WEEK
I'm taking the points with UCLA. I successfully played against Oregon State last week and I feel that the Beavers are over-valued again here. Last week, favored by two touchdowns, the Beavers won by only two points. Now the Beavers take to the road where they are just 1-3 on the season with the lone victory came vs. winless Washington. Now they are being asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road at vs. a well- rested UCLA team which has played well at home. In five games here, the Bruins have gone 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU. The Bruins defeated Tennessee outright here and they only lost by five vs. Fresno State here. In their most recent home game, the Bruins defeated Stanford - a team which defeated Oregon State. Prior to the bye week, UCLA lost at Cal. That's worth noting as we find the Bruins at 9-1 ATS the last 10 times they were coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. The Bruins are also a profitable 15-4-1 ATS the last 20 times they were listed as underdogs. Additionally, they're a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they faced the Beavers. Most assume that the Bruins' season is over. However, they haven't given up on reaching a bowl game quite yet. They need three wins in their final four games. Their finale is vs. USC, so that's a write-off. That means that they need to win each of their next three games. That's admittedly going to be difficult. It's not impossible though and at the very least, it gives them hope here and additional motivation to play for. Coach Rick Neuheisel had this to say: "If we can find a way to beat Oregon State, that puts us in a position where postseason is still alive. The whole goal for the season lies on a great plan for the Oregon State game." With an extra week to prepare, look for Neuheisel to have the Bruins ready to play and for them to earn at least the cover. *Pac 10 GOW
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Baylor - I am not surprised at all with this grading from the AiS showing that Baylor will lose this game by 28 or fewer points. I nailed Baylor last week against Missouri and they pushed Missouri the entire game and Texas will still be feeling the pain fro last week's epic battle in Lubbock. That was a truly bruising game and the wear from it will have an effect on Texas. Texas will certainly win the game, but the Bears will push them. Baylor's running game has improved greatly since the beginning of the year. Last week against Missouri they gained 155 rushing yards on 44 plays and the week before at Nebraska they gained 216 yards on 33 attempts. Baylor is a run dominated team, but the OL has really come into it's own and will be able to control the LOS for a majority of the game. Texas defense is a tired group right now having to play all of the marquee games in recent weeks. They gave up 217 rushing yards to Oklahoma State and a 105 yards to the pass happy bunch from Lubbock. The Texas running game has spurted in recent weeks gaining just 113 versus Oklahoma State and just 71 at Texas Tech. No doubt Texas will want to establish the running game first so that they can protect McCoy and set-up easy play action pass routes. Their play calling will be very conservative looking for long time consuming scoring drives. This style will keep Baylor in the game far longer than if this game was taking place in the first few weeks of the season. They know that they could be NUMBER 1 Sunday night with any sort of win against Baylor. yes, Iowa has a solid chance at home versus Peen State, Oklahoma State could defeat Texas Tech and yes LSU could finally play up to their potential and ruin 'Bama's title hopes. Take Baylor.
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 10* graded play OVER Texas Tech/Oklahoma – AiS shows an 87% probability that there will be 70 or more points scored in this game. There is a 94% probability that both teams will score 28 or more points and although that only gets part way to the posted total it does place TT in a strong over role. TT is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. TT also in a series of strong roles noting that they are 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 3 seasons; 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons; 15-5 OVER (+9.5 Units) versus excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards/play since 1992. Oklahoma State is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992; 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992; 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) after outgaining opposition by 225 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. TT is also 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons; 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. TT HC Leach is also in a strong over role noting he is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) after a dominating performance with 34+ minutes TOP and 24+ First downs; 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins. Take the OVER.