PPP Totals
4% Illinois/W Michigan Over
4% UTEP/UL Lafayette Over
PayneInsider
50-DIME Alabama -3 (-110)
25-DIME North Carolina -3.5 (-110)
25 DIME Penn State -7 (-120) BUY 1/2 POINT
25 DIME Louisville +6.5 (-110)
25 DIME Houston -16 (-110)
25 DIME San Jose State -7 (-110)
50-DIME 3-TEAM / 7 POINT TEASER
Air Force -2.5
Minnesota -.5
San Jose State -PICK'EM
JB Sports
North Carolina
LT Profits
Nebraska
Mike Rose
Notre Dame
Pacific Star
UL Lafayette
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
4 STAR SELECTION
Louisville +6½ over PITTSBURGH
The Panthers are back in the Top 25 and head back into Big East play this weekend, as the entertain the Cardinals at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh pulled out a thrilling 36-33 four-overtime victory at Notre Dame last Saturday to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Rutgers the prior weekend. The win also made Pittsburgh bowl eligible, which is an achievement for this team that has not gone bowling since the end of the 2004 season.
As for Louisville, it enters the contest on a real down note, dropping a 28-21 decision at Syracuse last weekend. The setback to the league's doormat came one week after the program had upended nationally-ranked South Florida.
Offensively, the Cardinals are a balanced group gaining 189 ypg on the ground and nearly 200 ypg through the air, leading to 29 ppg. Louisville has done a respectable job on the defensive side of things thus far, as the team is limiting foes to 24 ppg and 316 total ypg. The defense has been stout versus the run, allowing less than 92 ypg, but has shown some weakness against the pass, allowing 225 ypg.
Tailback LeSean McCoy is the workhorse for Pitt and played a huge role in the victory last weekend, toting the ball 32 times for a season-high 169 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers haven't forced many turnovers this season, but the defense has been solid. Pitt is holding opposing clubs to just 319 total yards and has had some success bringing down opposing quarterbacks, racking up 22 sacks.
Both teams have been very inconsistent recently, so there’s a question of which teams will show up. The Cardinals have been at their best against the best this season, and against a ranked Panthers squad that just knocked off Notre Dame in four overtimes it is again facing a challenge. If the team that beat South Florida shows up, Louisville can put itself in a strong position for a bowl game.
We often look to play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance, which is certainly the case here with Louisville. A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press.
"Nobody's happy around here. I'm not happy; I'm upset as I've ever been." — Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe told the Louisville Courier-Journal, on the attitude after the team's loss to Syracuse.
Our Power Ratings indicate that we are getting good line value with the Cards here, no doubt due to each team’s showing last week. We like the price here, as Louisville is 10-0 ATS (+13.1 ppg) as an underdog of 4+ points and not coming off a road SU or ATS win. They are also 7-0 SU vs. Pittsburgh, 5-0 ATS at Pittsburgh, and 4-0 ATS (+9.8 ppg) as an underdog of 2+ points vs. an opponent playing with at least double revenge.
Louisville also qualifies for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours, demonstrating that after blowing a game as a big road favorite, teams back on the road have responded very strongly as underdogs. It states:
In Games 2-9, play ON a road underdog of 2-25½ points off a SU loss as a road/neutral site favorite of 10+ points vs. an opponent not off a conference SU & ATS win.
Going all the way through the database, we find these teams are 20-0-3 ATS since at least 1980, beating the spread by nearly 10 points per game on average.
Meanwhile, Pitt is 0-3 SU & ATS at home while nationally ranked this year. The Panthers are now #25 in the polls after last week’s win over the Irish.
Another handicapping strategy of ours is to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.
Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. About 8% of all college football games end with a 3-point SU winner and slightly more than 6% end with a 7-point margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. Here, we have the Panthers opening as a favorite of 6½ points, where the line has remained.
In looking at some numbers related to Pittsburgh, we find them at 0-5 ATS (-11.4 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-19.3 ppg) as a favorite of 6-10 points with less than 8 days rest and seeking revenge.
After a win at Notre Dame, home favorites have had a hard time focusing on their next opponent under the conditions described in an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM. It instructs:
In Games 2-11, play AGAINST a home favorite off a SU win at Notre Dame vs. an opponent not off a road favorite SU win & ATS loss.
Since 1987, these teams are 0-12-1 ATS. Going multiple OTs certainly won’t help Pitt in a game they had to battle for over 3 hours, as they never led this game in regulation. Now, they have to face an angry Cardinals team that KNOWS they can beat the Panthers, which is what we expect them to do.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: LOUISVILLE 28 PITTSBURGH 24
4 STAR SELECTION
Arkansas +13½ over SOUTH CAROLINA
The Gamecocks host the Razorbacks in an SEC tilt at Williams-Brice Stadium on Saturday. Last week, Arkansas snapped a two-game losing skid with a thrilling, 30-23 win over previously unbeaten Tulsa this past weekend. The Razorbacks have just one conference victory in five tries, but they have been much more competitive of late. As for South Carolina, they pummeled Tennessee this past weekend, defeating the Volunteers, 27-6.
The Razorbacks offense has been improving and is now producing nearly 370 total ypg. In the recent win over Tulsa, the Razorbacks used a heavy dose of its passing attack as Casey Dick threw for 385 yards and one score. The problems for Arkansas this season have mostly come on the defensive side of the football, as the team is surrendering 378 total ypg.
Fortunately for Arkansas, the Gamecocks have not been impressive offensively for most of the season and heads into this contest with just 330 total ypg, and that has led to a mere 23 ppg. The ground game has been simply pathetic, as the team is averaging a meager 100 ypg on the ground. Unfortunately the passing attack has been just as inconsistent, as Chris Smelley has thrown for just 1,291 yards and has only 10 touchdowns against nine interceptions. The offensive woes for South Carolina continued this past weekend, as the Gamecocks posted just 255 total yards. All the success the Gamecocks have achieved this season can be attributed to the outstanding play of the defensive unit, which is limiting the opposition to just 15 ppg.
The Razorbacks are finally responding to new coach Bobby Petrino, as they are 4-0 ATS last 4 games. Arkansas is also a super 9-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) as a conference road underdog since 2004 and 5-0 SU (+13.2 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+11 ppg) vs. South Carolina with less than 13 days rest.
Meanwhile, South Carolina is:
0-6 ATS (-11.2 ppg) from Game 4 on as a home favorite of less than 29 points off 2 home games;
0-4 ATS in final home game against a conference opponent;
0-5 ATS in final home game off a home SU win;
0-7 ATS (-6.8 ppg) at home and not getting 18+ points before playing Florida.
Finally, after a home victory against Tennessee, teams have had little left in the tank. Specifically, teams with less than 13 days rest off a home SU win against Tennessee are 0-9 ATS since 2005, failing to cover the spread by 10 ppg on average.
Off the win over the Volunteers and with Spurrier’s former Florida team on deck, this is a classic “sandwich” spot for the Gamecocks, and they are likely to have their hands full with a Razorbacks team that should at least stay within a FG to cover the spread.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH CAROLINA 24 ARKANSAS 21
4 STAR SELECTION
Colorado State +10 over AIR FORCE
With bowl eligibility still possible, the Rams take their act on the road this weekend to Colorado Springs where they will face the Falcons. Colorado suffered a 45-42 setback against nationally-ranked BYU last Saturday at home, as the Rams continue to play well for new coach Steve Fairchild.
As for Air Force, a group that is already one of four in the Mountain West Conference that is bowl eligible, they had their lowest-scoring game of the season this past weekend, but it was still a strong enough effort to earn them the 16-7 win versus Army as part of the Commander-in-Chief's series at West Point.
The Rams’ QB Billy Farris faced off against one of the strongest teams in the nation last Saturday and turned in one of his best performances as he threw for 251 yards and three touchdowns. Colorado State has now scored more points in each of its last 3 games.
Air Force has gone in the opposite direction, as despite winning their last 4 games, they have scored fewer points in each successive victory. Now, they coming back their trip East and can be expected to have trouble being at the top of their game here. The Rams are likely to be the more well-rested team, as they were home last week and now just make the short trip to the Air Force Academy.
Colorado State is:
8-0 ATS (+13.4 ppg) on the road with 5+ days rest off scoring 36+ points and not a favorite of 3+ points;
6-0-1 ATS (6.3) as an underdog vs. Air Force
An interesting trend our database research uncovered, is that teams are 7-0 ATS (+19.2 ppg) vs. Air Force coming off a game with BYU and not favored by 3+ points.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are:
0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) as a conference home favorite off 3 SU wins vs. opponents not off a SU win & ATS loss of more than 14 points;
0-4 ATS since at least 1980 as a home favorite off a road SU win against Army or Navy;
0-10 (-13.1 ppg) as a conference favorite off scoring less than 20 points.
The Rams are getting little respect here from the wagering public, but we believe they offer tremendous value in this situation and give them a very good chance of not only covering the large spread but winning the game outright.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: COLORADO STATE 24 AIR FORCE 21
3 STAR SELECTION
Oklahoma State +3½ over TEXAS TECH
A Big 12 South matchup takes place in Lubbock Saturday night when the second-ranked Red Raiders play host to the eighth-ranked Cowboys.
Mike Leach's Texas Tech team legitimized themselves as national title contenders last week, with their thrilling 39-33 victory over then #1 Texas. The victory pushed Tech's record to an unblemished 9-0 and put the team in the driver's seat to represent the South Division in the Big 12 title game. In addition, the team's ascension to second-place in the BCS standings has the Red Raider faithful hopeful of a national title.
Standing in Tech's way this week is an Oklahoma State program that has won eight of its first nine games. The team bounced back from its only loss of the season which was a 28-24 setback at Texas on October 25th, with a 59-17 drubbing of Iowa State last weekend.
Not many teams can match Texas Tech's offensive capabilities, but Oklahoma State is one of them. Proof positive is the 682 yards of total offense rolled up on Iowa State last week. It was an offensive clinic by quarterback Zac Robinson who completed 18 passes that went for an eye-popping 395 yards, with five TDs.
The scary thing about this offense, is that the ground game is even more devastating than the aerial attack. The Cowboys are averaging an astounding 274 ypg on the ground, led by tailback Kendall Hunter's 136 yards per outing. Hunter is averaging an amazing 6.7 yards per carry in 2008, with 11 TDs.
The OSU offense has been so good that the defense sometimes gets a free pass. The numbers on this side of the football aren't quite as impressive, but the team has made big plays when they are needed. The Cowboys are currently allowing 21 ppg, on 357 yards of total offense.
The Red Raiders have their own devastating pitcher in Heisman hopeful Graham Harrell. On the season, Texas Tech has put up crazy numbers offensively, averaging 47 ppg, on 559 yards of total offense. Most of that comes from the arm of Harrell, who has completed just over 70 percent of his passes, for over 402 ypg and 30 TDs.
Much like the Cowboys, the Red Raider defense gets a bit of a free pass because the offense is so productive. Tech is putting up modest numbers this year on defense, allowing over 22 ppg, on 350 ypg.
This should be another thrilling matchup between two of the nation's premier offenses. A letdown following the win over Texas is expected for Texas Tech and the Cowboys will be all too happy to be the beneficiary.
All the Cowboys have done since winning their bowl game last season is go 10-0 ATS. This qualifies them for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play ON a road underdog of less than 7 points with 5+ days off 7 ATS wins.
Since 1990, these teams are 11-0 SU (+10.5 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+13.6 ppg).
In addition to playing AGAINST a team off a major upset victory, we like to play AGAINST a Top 10 team off a win over another Top 10 opponent. The winning team likely expended more energy and effort to pull of the victory in a big game. They will have little left in their emotional or physical tanks. Meanwhile, their opponent will be fired up knowing they are facing one of the top teams in the country.
The win over the Longhorns was the first time Tech had ever knocked off a top-ranked opponent in 10 tries, making it even tougher to get focused here. The Red Raiders are:
0-2 SU (-24 ppg) & 0-2 ATS (-21 ppg) following a SU win over Texas since 1998;
0-11 ATS (-9.4 ppg) off a SU win, scoring less than 42 points;
0-5-1 ATS (-13.2 ppg) as a favorite seeking revenge for a favorite SU loss within the past 3 seasons.
After an upset win at home to spoil an opponent’s perfect season, teams have had a hard time getting focused in games expected to be very tight. Such is the situation for the Red Raiders that qualifies them for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of 4+ points or underdog of more than 2 points) with less than 13 days rest off a home underdog SU win against an undefeated foe vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU win.
Since at least 1980, these teams are 0-14 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than a dozen points per game on average.
This figures to be a game that again goes down to the wire; however, the Cowboys should have a little more left in the tank and steal this game from the Red Raiders.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OKLAHOMA STATE 38 TEXAS TECH 35
3 STAR SELECTION
FLORIDA ATLANTIC -22½ over North Texas
Coming off their first victory of the season, the Mean Green are back on the road to take on the Owls in a Sun Belt Conference clash. After starting the year with eight consecutive losses, North Texas finally found the win column with a 51-40 victory over Western Kentucky this past week.
As for Florida Atlantic, the defending league champions have won two consecutive games since opening the year with a terrible 1-5 ledger. The Owls have dominated the all-time series against North Texas, winning all four matchups SU and going 3-0-1 ATS.
The Mean Green have relied heavily on the passing game, which is posting 250 ypg through the air. Overall this unit comes into this contest averaging 379 total ypg and that has led to 21 ppg. Giovanni Vizza has completed 62% of his throws this season for over 2,200 yards, but the quarterback has tossed just 13 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.
Where this team has struggled the most this season has been defensively, as the Mean Green is being abused for nearly 49 ppg, and 489 total ypg! The defense has struggled against both the run and pass, allowing teams to rush for over 200 ypg, while also being torched for 289 ypg. The defensive woes for North Texas continued this past weekend even in a win against Western Kentucky, as the Mean Green allowed over 500 total yards.
The North Texas defense will be just what the Owls need, as the team is currently producing a meager 18 ppg. The offense has been getting better in recent games, as the last time Florida Atlantic was on the field the team racked up 418 total yards, and the majority of the success came through the air, as QB Rusty Smith threw for 267 yards and two touchdowns. The Owls defensive unit has been tortured for 393 total ypg and 29 ppg, but should certainly be good enough to keep the not-so-Mean Green under control here.
It was great for North Texas to finally grab a win, but now it’s time to play AGAINST a team off its peak performance of the season. Whether a blowout win, upset, revenge victory, played the “spoiler”, or any win in which a team feels like they “just won the Super Bowl”, they will be hard-pressed to match that emotion, effort, and intensity next time out and will be due for a fall.
"North Texas is winners again. I feel like I just won a million dollars." — UNT linebacker Tobe Nwigwe told the Denton Record-Chronicle after the 51-40 at Western Kentucky last weekend.
The numbers certainly back us up here, as the Mean Green is 0-8 SU (-25.1 ppg) & 0-8 ATS (-16.8 ppg) off a SU win and 0-14 SU (-38.9 ppg) & 0-14 ATS (-12.9 ppg) as an underdog of 18-41½ points.
Additionally, we have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM showing late-season road underdogs have nothing left after finally picking up their first victory. It states:
From Game 9 on, play AGAINST a road underdog of 7½-38½ points off its first SU win of the season.
Since at least 1980, these teams are perfectly awful, going 0-13 SU (-31.2 ppg) & 0-13 ATS (-13.1 ppg).
With Florida Atlantic, we can play ON a team off a bye late in the season and is facing an opponent that is playing without rest for many weeks – the longer the better. The Mean Green haven’t had a break since mid-September, and they aren’t about to catch one here from the Owls who are just now peaking and should explode here for the SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA ATLANTIC 42 NORTH TEXAS 13
Blade is the LV Tech Report decent - I know they were on top last week
ATS Lock Club
7 units W. Virginia -6.5
6 units Louisianna Laffeyette -9.5
6 units Pittsburgh -6
6 units North Carolina -3.5
2 units round robin parlay (above 4)
5 units Notre Dame +3.5
4 units Cavaliers -1.5
ATS Financial Package
4 units Arkansas +13
4 units Iowa +8
4 units Rice -9.5
4 units Pacers -6.5
Bestsportspicks
Oregon St
San Jose St
Alabama
Florida/Vanderbilt Over
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
COLLEGE FOOTBALL LATE STEAM PLAY OF THE YEAR
Florida -23.5
Blade is the LV Tech Report decent - I know they were on top last week
They are a very good service who I always pay attention to.
Action Sports Services
OKLAHOMA STATE / TEXAS TECH Over 69.5
NORTHCOAST SPORTS
OHIO STATE -11 GOY
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
Alabama -3.5 (POD)
New Orleans Hornets -9
Minnesota U -7.5