SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Ethan Law

TEXAS TECH (10-0) at OKLAHOMA (9-1)

Each week this season in the Big 12 conference there seems to be a game of huge importance, and each succeeding week the importance of said game takes on a greater importance towards deciding who will represent the Big 12 in the National Championship game. Let's be honest here, whatever team wins the ultra competitive South division of the Big 12 is almost a shoe-in for the big game. Although Missouri may have a say in preventing that from happening in the Big 12 Championship game. The game I am talking about this week is, of course, between #2 ranked Texas Tech (10-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS) and #5 ranked Oklahoma (9-1 SU & 7-2 ATS). This game was set up perfectly by the fact that both teams had a bye last week. It's almost as if the scheduling gods knew ahead of time how important this game would be, and wanted both teams rested and emotionally recharged for what should be just a fantastic game.

When comparing these teams, there is really very little to choose from as far as finding an fundamental match-up advantage either has over the other. Both are led by Heisman Trophy candidates at quarterback. Oklahoma's Sophomore leader Sam Bradford has been brilliant this season completing 67.9% of his passes for 3406 yards with a gaudy 38-6 TD to interception rate. Texas Tech is led by Sr. gunslinger Graham Harrell with 4077 passing yards, 71.7% completion rate and an equally gaudy 36-5 TD to int. rate. Texas Tech uses their passing game in place of a running game often with more timing routes, while Oklahoma throws the ball downfield just a bit more, which explains Harrell's higher completion rate and Bradford's rather large advantage in yards per attempt (10.3 to 8.8). Both teams run the ball very efficiently, though Oklahoma chooses to do so more often. Oklahoma has amassed 1943 rushing yards at a 4.6 yard per carry rate, Texas Tech though ranks 11th in the Big 12 in rushing yards with only 1326, though a 5.2 yard per carry clip proves they are very capable on the ground also. The Red Raiders running game often surprises their opponents, who fall asleep defending pass after pass, because as I stated above, they more often than not use the short passing game as a pseudo running game, with short slant and timing routes. As you see, both teams have nearly unstoppable offensive attacks, though Oklahoma chooses to run more often and Texas Tech uses a relentless passing attack.

Defensively both stack up similarly also. The Sooners allow 23.6 points per game and Texas Tech 22.2. Oklahoma allows 3.2 yards per carry on the ground and Texas Tech 3.4 yards per carry. Slight edge to the Sooners there...but minimal at best. The one area where there is a tangible edge for either team though is pass defense. The Sooners have allowed just 52.7% of passes completed against them. In a pass happy conference filled with high scoring teams that may be the most impressive statistic I have seen all year. In comparison, the 2nd best completion % allowed by any other Big 12 team is Texas...57.1% allowed. Texas Tech's pass defense allows a completion rate of 62.2%. Finally we have found an advantage! In a game that features such high scoring unstoppable offenses, every incomplete pass may loom large. It may mean the difference between converting a 3rd down attempt and a punt. As they say, possession is 9 tenths of the law, and Oklahoma has a slight advantage on defense that may mean the difference in this huge game.

The whole purpose of analyzing all those aspects of both teams was to prove that there really is very little advantage here for either team statistically, except for the slight edge the Sooners have defensively, coupled with home field advantage. My next question is this then, why is Oklahoma a 7 point favorite? I fully understand they have a strong home field advantage, but these teams appear to be as equally matched as possible, and even if allowing 4 points for home field, this line seems a little off to me. Perception certainly would not dictate that Oklahoma be a full touchdown favorite over the higher ranked team here. Perception is that Tech is at least the Sooners equal. Oklahoma lost to Texas by 10 points in a game that was statistically a wash. The Red Raiders beat that same Texas team and dominated in the stats by a 579-374 yard advantage. Anyone that watched that game would admit Texas Tech was the better team that day. Anyone that watched the Sooners loss to Texas would honestly say that the better team won that day also. Again I ask, WHY ARE THE SOONERS a FULL touchdown favorites? The answer is this, in my opinion the bookmaker is simply begging for money on the underdog here. Had they set the line at 4 or 4.5 where it by all rights should be, they would have had a very evenly bet game. They do not set lines too high or low in games unless they are comfortable taking one-sided action in a game. As of this writing there is more than twice the number of bets taken on this game than any other on Saturday, and with good reason. It is the biggest game on the schedule and every bettor alive will have money bet on this game, if only just to have action on the biggest game of the year so far. They are getting the one-sided action they desire with 72% of all straight bets on Texas Tech, 70% of all parlay bets including this game on Texas Tech and an unbelievable 89% of all money line wagers coming in on the underdog. Anyone familiar with the betting patterns of "joe public" knows they are drawn almost without exception to take the favorite. That is also why most sharp bettors will always look to take the underdog first when sizing up a game. In this case, in the highest profile game of the week, they set the line "too high" because they have no qualms taking such a large handle disproportionately bet. Vegas expects the Sooners to cover. There are many trends and situations I could enumerate to back this play, the truth is none of them mean anything by themselves. When "the house" wants money on one side, you take the other. Sooners probably win by 10-20 points in a hard fought close game and a key turnover being the deciding factor. Lay the chalk.

Verdict: Texas Tech 34, Oklahoma 56
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON OKLAHOMA -7 +$105

DOC

5 Unit Play.Take Purdue Boilermakers -11 over Indiana Hoosiers

The battle for the Old Oaken Bucket will have extra meaning this year, as it will be Coach Joe Tillers last game at Purdue. His style of offense caught on fast in the Big 10 and everybody seems to think he will finish his career with a blowout victory. That scares me a little, but the fact remains that Purdue has a huge talent edge over their in-state rival. The defense for Purdue has played well this season, but the offense has not been up to Tillers standard. That being said, they certainly have the talent with QB Painter, as he played his best game of the season last week against Iowa completing 24 of 30 passes. I look for another big game out of this senior, especially since Indiana is banged up on defense. Purdue sends Coach Tiller out in style, as we collect in the process as well. Purdue 42, Indiana 17.

4 Unit Play.Take Michigan State Spartans +14 over Penn State Nittany Lions

The Big 10 Championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl is on the line for Penn State in this battle. I still believe that Penn State is the best team in the conference; however, one has to wonder if they peaked against Ohio State. Their offense has not been crisped and passing attack has been non-existent. As for the Spartans, QB Hoyer has stepped up against Penn State throwing for over 500 yards and 5 touchdowns in his career against them. Cold weather could be a factor and look for the Spartans to unleash Ringer, as the last three meetings have been decided by nine or less points. Lions win in a real battle. Penn State 20, Michigan State 17.

4 Unit Play.Take NC State Wolf Pack +11 over North Carolina Tar Heels

These are the type of games that emotion becomes a big factor, as this battle of North Carolina is renewed. UNC does not have a big home field advantage since it is just a bus ride away from Raleigh. State struggle in the middle of the season but has seen new light especially since QB Wilson took over under center. As for the Tar Heels, their offense has struggle of late which makes me believe that this will be a low scoring game and getting double digits is too good to pass up. NC State is 6-0 ATS in conference play and this will be a hard fought game that goes down to the wire. UNC 24, NC State 21.

4 Unit Play.Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20 over Syracuse Orange

The Irish need to pound someone and will be able to do that against one of the worst teams in the country. Coach Weiss took over the play calling last week and the offense responded well; however, five turnovers did them in. Their defense has played much better in 2008 then 2007 and I think that is the real key here. The Orange have very little firepower and a lame duck coach who is gone after the season is completed. Irish need this win and certainly will not be looking ahead to USC, since this game gives them seven wins. Weiss, the players, and the fans all need a game that they dominate and light it up for sixty minutes and that will be the case today. Notre Dame 42, Syracuse 10.

4 Unit Play.Take Utah Utes -7 over BYU Cougars

This is one of the marquee games in the country this weekend, as two of the top teams in the MWC do battle in this battle of Utah. It also has two of the top quarterbacks in the country in Hall and Johnson. They may be equal in talent; however, I think Johnson has the best cast around him. Utah also has an edge on defense, as they are 24th in country (BYU is 73rd) and this is the main factor in my choice. I look for Utah to put pressure on QB Hall all day long. Since 1999, BYU has not fared well against ranked teams and that trend will continue here, as Utah marches onto the BCS. Utah 38, BYU 24.

4 Unit Play.Take Ole Miss Rebels +4 over LSU Tigers

Never like the fact of going against LSU in Baton Rouge; however, this visitor is the time to pull the trigger. Rebels have already won in Florida and Arkansas and LSU has played poorly since their close loss to Alabama. LSU was being dominated by Troy last week before making a late rally to win the game. They still do not have a quarterback and although they have won six straight in this series, four have come by three points or less. Ole Miss did outgain LSU last year, 466-396 and Coach Nutt will end the streak and pull the upset. Ole Miss 28, LSU 24

Allen Eastman

$600.00 Pittsburgh (+5.5) over Cincinnati
I like getting the points here in a game that should see two teams bashing heads. I think the weather is going to be a factor here and even though it looks like a lot of the public is pushing the number on the Bearcats I think we have the team that is better as a very strong underdog. Pitt has covered four of five overall and are 5-1 ATS on the road.

$400.00 Boston College (+2) over Wake Forest
The Eagles were playing at a very high level in Florida State last weekend and I think they keep it rolling against a shaky Wake Forest team.

$300.00 Oregon State (+2.5) over Arizona
I know that everyone expects Arizona to spring the big upset in this spot but I don't think that Willie Tuitama has it in him. Arizona is perpetually overrated and I will take Mike Riley over Mike Stoops any day of the week.

$500.00‘Under’ 37.5 Tennessee at Vanderbilt
I think that the Tennessee defense will be able to slow down the Vanderbilt rushing attack, which has been nowhere near as effective in the last month as it was earlier in the year. Prior to last week's 31-point "outburst" the Commodores had scored 14 or less points in five straight games. Tennessee is starting a freshman quarterback, on the road, against a pretty good defense. And on top of that the Vols are 20-8 for the 'under' in their last 28 games.

$1000.00 Arkansas (-1) over Mississippi State
I don't think that Sylvester Croom has any control or attention over his team. And I just don't think that MSU is very good. They have only beaten two D-I teams this year, Middle Tennessee State and Vandy at home. Arkansas has won nine straight in this series and have been playing very well after some early season blowouts.

$800.00 ‘Under’ 53.0 Stanford at California
Cal's defense is much better than it is given credit for and I think it will slow down a Stanford offense that is going to want to milk the clock. There has not been more than 50 points scored in this rivalry since back in 2001 and the 'under' is 10-3 in Cal's last 13 November games. Stanford is also 3-8 against the total on turf and after three straight games going 'over' I think the oddsmakers have sent this number too far the other way.

SPYLOCK

5 units Northwestern
3 units Boston College
3 units Oregon St.
3 units U Conn.

Scott Spritzer

25* CFB "Woodshed" Game

Memphis

Brandon Lang

40 Dime OLE MISS (if your sports book has a 3, buy the half point and take 3-1/2 points)

10 Dime 6-Point Teaser Oklahoma and Iowa

FREE - Oklahoma Sooners

Gameday

4* TCU-18'
3* PENN ST-15
3* PURDUE-11
2* TENNESSEE+3
2* ARIZONA-2'
2* LSU-4

NELLY

MEMPHIS TIGERS -5.5

WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS -2

Iowa Hawkeyes -6

MARYLAND TERRAPINS +1.5

Colin Cowherd

4-0 LW 35-19 YTD 65%

Utah -7
28-20

Texas Tech +7
38-36

Arizona -2.5
31-24

Penn State -13.5
36-10

Bob Akmens

CFB

20* Utah -7

10* Temple -10.5

10* Rice -9.5

10* Minnesota +6

10* Hawaii -23.5

Inside Info

3* Mich St
2* Kansas St
2* Boise St

Dave Malinsky

6* Arkansas
5* NC St
4* Mich St
4* Purdue
4* Pitt/Cinn Under

Larry Ness

25* Arizona
15* Oklahoma
15* Utah
15* Purdue

Ron Raymond

5* San Diego State +10