ASA
10* PENN ST -14.5
Memphis
Texas Tech
Arizona
BYU
Teddy Covers
Stanford GOY
BEN BURNS
SITUATIONAL GAME OF YEAR
I'm taking the points with TENNESSEE. Its certainly been a disappointing season for the Volunteers and they hit a new low by losing vs. Wyoming last time out. Conversely, Vanderbilt has exceeded expectations, winning their sixth game last week. However, as you know, much of that can be thrown out the window when two instate rivals collide. While Vanderbilt has had the better season, Tennessee still arguably has more talent. Of course, that's been the case for about as long as anyone can remember. Indeed, the Vols are 67-9-2 in the series since 1928, including a dominating 24-1 the last 25. In addition to the talent edge, the Vols have the schedule strongly in their favor. Vanderbilt comes off an emotional and fairly hard fought road win at Kentucky last week. That victory made them become bowl eligible for the first time in 25 years. In other words, if there is ever a spot for a "letdown," this could easily be it. On the other hand, while the Commodores have been celebrating, the Vols have stewing. That's because they were downright embarrassed by their performance vs. Wyoming. Even better, the Vols have had a bye since that loss, meaning that they have had an extra week to read the press clippings about how terrible they are. Of course, the extra rest has also given the Vols extra time to prepare while allowing a few key players time to get healthier. Fulmer was quoted as saying: "We had a chance to do some fundamental work while also physically and mentally getting some rest after nine straight football games." Speaking of Fulmer, he needs wins in each of the last two games to finish his career at Tennessee exactly 100 games over .500. While I look for the Vols to win outright, I'm happy to have the extra field goal to work with. For starters, last season's game was decided by just one point. Additionally, it should be noted that the Commodores are 1-4 SU/ATS (4-11 L15) the last five times that they played a game with an over/under line ranging from +3 to -3. During the same stretch, the Vols were 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS when playing a game with a line in that range. Look for the extra week off to pay dividends here as the Vols show some pride and bounce back with a huge effort against a team they have dominated for a century. *situational GOY
PERSONAL FAVORITE
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Eagles in last year's meeting, using that play as my top ACC play from 2007. In addition to being on the road, that was the first game of the season for the Demon Deacons. The Deacons have had an awful lot of wins since that time and I feel that they're a better team, particularly now that they'll be on their home field. Conversely, while the Eagles have played well their last couple of games, without Matt Ryan, I don't feel that they're as strong a team, as they were for last season's meeting - at least not on offense. Note that Boston College QB Chris Crane has 13 interceptions on the season. On the other hand, Wake Forest's Riley Skinner has been picked off just five times. Both teams are excellent defensively. The Deacons have been stronger on that side of the ball in conference play though. Wake Forest is holding ACC foes to 17.1 points per game. On the other hand, Boston College is allowing 27 points in conference play. The Deacons have been superb when facing quality teams the past few years. In fact, they're 13-6 ATS their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. They're also 9-3 ATS their last 12 games when playing with a line ranging from +3 to -3. With the support of the home crowd behind them, look for the Deacons to improve on those numbers this afternoon. *Personal Favorite
MAIN EVENT
I'm laying the points with OKLAHOMA. Many people will look at this matchup and think to themselves, "The Red Raiders beat the Longhorns and the Longhorns beat the Sooners, therefore the Red Raiders will cover vs. the Sooners." It's not that easy though and that's not the way that one should be approaching this matchup. The Red Raiders win over Texas was rather fortunate and it came at home. Conversely, Oklahoma faced Texas at the Cotton Bowl. Big difference! The Sooners have been virtually unbeatable at home for years and they've outscored opponents by more than 30 points per game here this season. While the Sooners are 12-4-1 ATS their last 17 home lined games, the Red Raiders are 4-10-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 point range. The Sooners come in with a score to settle, as the Red Raiders defeated them last year. In addition to playing at home, Texas Tech was someone fortunate in that game as Oklahoma QB Bradford was knocked out with a concussion. Bradford should be around the whole four quarters this time and he's currently playing at the top of his game. Last week, Bradford threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 66-28 crushing of Texas A&M. That gives him 38 TD passes for the season, which is two more than Texas Tech's Harrell, who has 36. The Sooners are 4-0 SU/ATS in four home games against Texas Tech when Leach was the Red Raiders' coach. Each of those four victories came by double-digits and they came by an average of 21 points. Look for the revenge-minded Sooners to deliver another convincing blowout here. *Big 12 Main Event
ANNIHILATOR
I'm taking the points with LOUISVILLE. This is a must-win game for the Cardinals, if they want any reasonable shot at making it to a bowl game. It's also their home finale. Additionally, they're looking to avenge a 38-31 loss suffered at West Virginia last season. In other words, the Cardinals have plenty of motivation. Yes, the Cardinals have lost three in a row. However, two of those losses came by eight points or less and two came on the road. Prior to that, they'd won three in a row, including a victory vs. a very good South Florida team. While the Cardinals have gone through a disappointing stretch, the Mountaineers aren't as good as they have been in recent seasons either. The Mountaineers are coming off a bye. Prior to that, like Louisville, they are coming off a close loss vs. Cincinnati. That was at home but it's also worth noting that the Mountaineers are also just 1-2 on the road. As mentioned, the Cardinals gave the Mountaineers everything they could handle last year. This year, Louisville has arguably a better defense while West Virginia's offense isn't as potent. Playing their home finale, in front of a "black out," look for the Cards to rise to the occasion with a massive effort, taking the game down to the wire and earning at least the cover. *Annihilator
Dr. Bob
Friday 3 Star Selection
BOWLING GREEN (-3.5) 33 Buffalo 20 (Loser)
I went against Buffalo last week with a Best Bet on Akron -3 and that game went just like I thought it would with the Zips averaging 6.6 yards per play while Buffalo was held in check at 5.0 yppl. The problem was 2 lost fumbles by Akron and zero turnovers by Buffalo and the Zips lost in 4 overtimes despite clearly being the better team from the line of scrimmage. Buffalo has been pretty lucky this year in being +11 in fumbles lost margin, recovering 16 opponent's fumbles and losing just 5 all season. My research shows that fumbles are 90% random in college football, as only 10% of past fumble margin is predictive. That means that Buffalo isn't likely to be getting 3 ½ points randomly this game as they've been getting all season (a turnover is worth about 3 ½ points in college football). Bowling Green, by the way, is -4 in fumble margin, so they've had a bit of bad luck and the difference in fumble margin of these two teams has made Buffalo overrated and Bowling Green a bit underrated heading into this game. Bowling Green is favored by 3 ½ points, which is the standard home field advantage in college football, but the Falcons are clearly the better team from the line of scrimmage and are thus likely to win by 4 points or more. Buffalo is pretty good offensively by MAC standards, averaging 5.5 yppl against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Bowling Green, however, is 0.1 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team), so the Falcons have a 0.2 yppl edge when Buffalo has the ball. Bowling Green is 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl), but Buffalo's defense has allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense, so Bowling Green has a 0.4 yppl advantage when they're on offense. My math model projects Buffalo with a slight edge in turnovers and the Falcons are better in special teams. My math model gives Bowling Green a 54.5% chance of covering at -3 ½ points, but that percentage is much higher given that Buffalo applies to a very negative 9-51 ATS road letdown situation that has a 60% chance of covering at a fair line. I'll take Bowling Green in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 2-Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.
3 Star Selection
PENN ST. (-14.5) 37 Michigan St. 10
This game will determine the Big 10 Championship, but these teams are not in the same class. Michigan State isn't that much better than an average team, averaging just 5.3 yards per play while allowing 5.1 yppl for the season (5.2 yppl to 5.0 yppl in Big 10 games). The Spartans are actually 0.3 yppl better than average after accounting for strength of opponents (average on offense at 0.3 yppl better than average on defense), but Penn State has been crushing teams of that caliber all season long. The Nittany Lions have played a slightly tougher schedule than Michigan State yet they've out-gained their opponents 6.2 yppl to 4.2 yppl while being 1.0 yppl better than average on offense and 1.4 yppl better than average defensively. Penn State has won 9 of their 11 games by 14 points or more this season, with the only exception being road games against Ohio State and Iowa, who are both considerably better than Michigan State (the Spartans lost 7-45 at home to Ohio State and were lucky to beat Iowa 16-13 at home, as they were out-gained 4.9 yppl to 5.1 yppl but were +2 in fumbles). With this game being in Happy Valley I just don't see a close contest and Joe Paterno's teams usually take care of business against lesser teams, as evidenced by Penn State's 19-6-1 ATS mark as a favorite of 9 points or more (17-4-1 ATS if not favored by more than 30 points). My math model favors Penn State by 20 ½ points in this game an Michigan State applies to a very negative 17-75-3 ATS situation while Penn State applies to a favorable 87-32-3 ATS late season situation. I'll take Penn State in a 4-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less, for 3-Stars from -14 ½ to -17 points and for 2-Stars from -17 ½ to -20 points.
3 Star Selection
***UTAH (-7.0) 36 BYU 19
BYU dropped 6 consecutive games to the number before covering the spread last week against Air Force. That game will not deter me from going against the overrated Cougars again this week. BYU has a very good offensive that has averaged 6.5 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team, but Utah is nearly as good defensively – rating at 0.7 yppl better than average (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl). The problem with BYU is a defense that has allowed only 5.0 yppl, but is actually below average since the Cougars faced a schedule of mostly bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. Utah is no juggernaut offensively, but the Cougars are solidly better than average on offense (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack) and should move the ball pretty well in this game. Utah's overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is supplemented by outstanding special teams, including the nation's best kicker in Louie Sakoda. My math model favors Utah by 10 ½ points in this game and the Utes apply to a very strong 91-27-2 ATS home momentum situation while BYU applies to a negative 21-61-1 ATS road letdown situation. The underdog in this series is 17-7 ATS, but that will only serve to keep me from playing this game for 4-Stars. I'll take Utah in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points (at -1.20 or less) or less and for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -10 points.
2 Star Selection
**CINCINNATI (-5.0) 32 Pittsburgh 19
Cincinnati has been an underrated team under coach Brian Kelly, as the Bearcats are 14-7 ATS in his tenure with 3 consecutive spread wins heading into this game. Kelly's teams, at Cincy and previously at Central Michigan, are 24-5-2 ATS in all games when not favored by more than 9 points and his teams at Cincinnati have done very well in competitively priced games – going 9-1 ATS when the spread is between -7 and +7 points. The Bearcats won for me last week despite their normally reliable field goal kicker (12 of 13 entering the game) missing all 3 of his kicks, as Cincy out-gained Louisville 6.5 yards per play to 4.5 yppl in that game. Pittsburgh is a better team than Louisville, but Cincinnati is better than Pittsburgh in all 3 facets of the game (offense, defense, and special teams) and this is also a coaching mismatch between Kelly and Dave Wannstadt. Pittsburgh has averaged an impressive 31 points per game this season, but that's a bit misleading given that the Panthers have averaged their 5.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Cincinnati is a very good defensive team (4.8 yppl allowed to Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and Pitt has averaged just 4.5 yppl in both games they've played against better than average defensive teams (Iowa and Notre Dame, who would combine to allow 4.9 yppl to an average team). Cincinnati's defense has been particularly good since allowing 7.2 yppl and 52 points to Oklahoma's juggernaut attack in week 2, as the Bearcats have not allowed more than 5.1 yppl to any other team all season. Pittsburgh's offense actually rates at 0.1 yppl better than average when Bill Stull is under center, but the Panthers' attack has a 0.8 yppl disadvantage in this game. Pittsburgh's defense has played well in 7 of their 9 games this season and they have allowed 5.1 yppl overall (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). However, the Panthers were horrible defensively against Rutgers, allowing 8.6 yppl and 54 points, which skews their stats. In cases like that I use a median rating and Pittsburgh's defense is actually 0.5 yppl better than average when I dampen the affect of that one horrible performance. Cincinnati's offense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average with Tony Pike at the controls, so Pitt has a 0.2 yppl advantage when the Bearcats have the ball. Overall, Cincinnati is 0.6 yppl better than Pittsburgh from the line of scrimmage, the Bearcats have better special teams and are also at home while projected to have a slight edge in turnovers too. Cincinnati should not only be favored by more than 5 points (the line should be 6 ½ or 7 points), but the Bearcats also apply to a 38-4 ATS subset of a 97-38-4 ATS momentum situation. I'll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 or less.
2 Star Selection
**UNLV (-11.5) 31 SAN DIEGO ST. 28
Nobody wants to bet on a San Diego State team that is 1-11 on the season and riding an 8 game losing streak after losing 14-63 at home to Utah last week. But, the fact that the public will steer clear of the Aztecs, and would want to play on a UNLV team that must win for bowl game eligibility is part of what makes San Diego State a good bet – LINE VALUE. The oddsmakers know that Joe Gambler is not going to put his hard earned cash down on a team as bad as San Diego State and doesn't mind betting a UNLV team with incentive to win, which is why the line opened at 12 ½ points rather than a lower number. The smart money has already been betting UNLV and I'm smart enough to know that there is still plenty of value left on the side of the Aztecs. San Diego State does indeed have an injury depleted defensive that can't stop the run or the pass and the Aztecs have allowed an average of 6.3 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. The defense has been even worse since mid-season when the injuries to the defensive line forced true freshman into the mix, and San Diego State has been 1.5 yppl worse than average defensively in their last 5 games, which is how I rate them heading into this contest. UNLV's offense is decent for the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack), but the Rebels haven't been good at all offensively the last 2 ½ games without star quarterback Omar Clayton, who was the only good thing about the Rebels' offense. Clayton averaged an outstanding 7.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while throwing just 4 interceptions on 258 passes, but backup Mike Clausen has averaged a pathetic 4.3 yppp on 91 pass plays this season. UNLV has averaged only 4.1 yppl in Clausen's two starts the last two weeks against New Mexico and Wyoming, who would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. I actually rate UNLV's attack at 0.8 yppl worse than average with Clausen at quarterback and the Rebels have 0.7 yppl advantage when they have the ball. While UNLV should be able to move the ball pretty well in this game (my math model projects 6.3 yppl), the Rebels' horrible defense (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) will also allow San Diego State to move the ball well enough to stay competitive. The Aztecs atually have the better quarterback in this game, as Ryan Lindley averages a not so horrible 5.6 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB) while sporting a much better than average 24% interception rate. Lindley missed a couple of games and backup quarterback Drew Westling was horrible, but San Diego State rates at just 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively with Lindley at quarterback, which gives the Aztecs a 0.4 yppl advantage when they have the ball. San Diego State has been getting shutdown offensively by solid defensive teams in recent weeks, but they've performed very well against the bad defensive units they've faced this season, averaging 35.3 points , 458 yards and 6.5 yppl in games against Cal Poly, Idaho, and Colorado State, who would combine to allow 6.6 yppl to an average team – so the Aztecs were only 0.1 yppl worse than average against bad defensive teams and my math model projects 6.2 yppl for them in this game. UNLV does have an edge in projected turnovers but San Diego State is a bit better in special teams and this game should be very competitive with my math model projecting just a 24 yards edge for UNLV. The oddsmakers obviously haven't adjusted for Omar Clayton being out and my math model favors UNLV by just 3 points. I come up with a fair line of 7 points in this game if I use a compensated points margin model (after adjusting for Lindley and Clausen at quarterback and for San Diego State's worse recent form defensively), so there is simply no way to justify a double-digit line. When researching this game I found myself a bit concerned about how a 1-10 team would play in the final game of the season. Would they simply throw in the towel and give up? I searched my database for the answer and found that teams with 1 or 0 wins for the season are actually 19-3-1 ATS since 1989 as an underdog of 7 points or more I their final game of the season when facing a conference opponent with a losing record – and the record was even better for teams that allowed 42 points or more the previous week. With no evidence that San Diego State is going to give up, I see no reason not to play the Aztecs based on the line value. I'll assume the fair line should be 7 points rather than even as my math model projects. If the line should be 7 points then San Diego State has a very profitable 60.7% chance of covering at +11 ½ points and 57.5% chance of covering at +10 points, so I'll take San Diego State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Indiana 24 PURDUE (-12.0) 30
Indiana has had more than their share of injuries this season on both sides of the ball, but the Hoosiers are healthy at the quarterback position and the offensive line is healthier than it's been in weeks, so the Hoosiers should perform up to their potential offensively. Despite the injuries, Indiana has actually been average offensively this season, averaging 5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Purdue is only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team), so the Hoosiers should move the ball at a decent rate. Purdue coach Joe Tiller, coaching his final game, has reinstated Curtis Painter as the starting quarterback now that he is healthy again and that move should help a struggling Boilermakers' offense that has scored 17 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games. I rate Purdue's attack at just 0.3 yppl worse than average with Painter at quarterback, which gives the Boilermakers a slight advantage over a banged up Indiana defense that rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average with their current personnel (I assume LB Patterson will play this week, but CB Council will not – although he is 50/50). Purdue's overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is not that significant and the Boilermakers are not good in special teams (they've allowed 3 punt return TD's). Purdue should not be favored by double-digits in this game and Indiana applies to a solid 158-77-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on Indiana's projected success running the ball against a soft Purdue defensive front (my math model projects 205 rushing yards at 5.7 yards per rushing play for the Hoosiers). I'll consider Indiana Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Oregon St. 27 ARIZONA (-2.5) 24
Oregon State's season opening fluke loss at Stanford (they out-gained Stanford 490 yards at 6.0 yards per play to 306 yards at 4.9 yppl, but were -3 in turnovers) is the Beavers' only bad loss of the season, as their other two losses were on the road against a top-10 Penn State team and on the road against unbeaten Utah, who is also a top-10 team. As you know Oregon State has also beaten USC and beat a good Cal team on the road last week, so they are certainly capable of winning here in Tucson. Arizona is a very good team, but the Wildcats' defensive lapse at Oregon last week (55 points and 510 yards allowed at 9.1 yppl) is not a good omen for them this week. Arizona applies to a very negative 7-47-2 ATS subset of a 123-231-7 ATS situation that is based on that poor defensive performance. My math model actually favors Arizona by 3 points, but the situation is strong enough for me to consider Oregon State a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
Strong Opinion
FLORIDA INTL. (-6.5) 30 UL Monroe 18
Florida International has quietly gone 6-2-1 ATS this season and the Panthers still appear to be underrated. FIU's defense has carried the team this season, allowing just 5.1 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive unit, and only the good offensive units of Iowa and UL Lafayette have averaged more than 5.2 yppl against the Panthers. Monroe has a decent offense by Sun Belt standards but the Warhawks are 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively on the national scale and are at a 0.7 yppl disadvantage in this game. While Florida International's stingy defense deserves the praise, the offense has been getting better and has averaged 5.8 yppl in 5 Sun Belt games (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Monroe's horrible defense has allowed 6.7 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average team, but I rate that unit at 1.1 yppl worse than average after dampening the affect of the 12.1 yppl that they allowed to UL Lafayette (which skewed their average). FIU is actually 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively for the season and I'll use that rating instead of their better recent number in an effort to be conservative. Either way, Florida International has an advantage when they have the ball against ULM's porous defense, so the Panthers are the better team from the line of scrimmage regardless of which team has the ball and they are also better in special teams and projected turnovers. My math model favors FIU by 12 points in this game and I'll consider Florida International a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Youngstown Connection
High Noon Play
NC State +11
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oklahoma. AiS shows an 86% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 7 or more points. TT is in a series of weak roles based on the AiS projections; all of which have an 85% probability of occurring in the game. TT is just 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) in road games when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents since 1992; 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Oklahoma is in a series of strong roles noting they are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-6 ATS for 81% since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining >6 and allowing =34 PPG in conference games. Here are some more strong roles that Oklahoma is in for this game. Note that they are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins this season; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after outgaining opposition by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games since 1992. TT is in a horrid role noting they are just 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games since 1992. Take Oklahoma.
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Ohio University – AiS shows an 84% probability that Ohio University will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-15 ATS for 75% since 2002. Play on a home team with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Here is a second system that has gone 38-13 ATS for 75% since 1992. Play against road favorites that are good offensive teams scoring 28-34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG after 7+ games and after scoring 37 points or more last game. This is Ohio’s last home game so with all of the Seniors on this squad you can most assuredly expect a full throttle effort from them. Now, here is a remarkable money line system that has gone 26-7 making 24 units since 1997. Play against a road team versus the money line that are good offensive teams scoring 28-34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG and after 7+ games of the regular season and after allowing 37 points or more last game. This Ohio team nearly upset Central Michigan. Had it not been for a devastating hit late in the 4th quarter at the goal line, Ohio would have taken the lead and possibly won the game. They were also up 14-6 over then 3rd ranked Ohio State in week 2. They also had Temple shutout till late in the 4th quarter and allowed 2 TD to lose 14-10. So, you can see that this is a much better team than the 2-8 record would indicate, but they have taken the season to learn how to complete a full game. Against Akron they will accomplish this with the leadership of their Seniors. Take Ohio and consider an optional money line wager as well, but not to exceed 2.5* units.
Winning Points
6* Arkansas
SMART MONEY
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BIG 12 SIDE BLAST-TESTS 69% Run
IOWA ST at KANSAS ST
Play: Iowa State
The Kansas State Wildcats and the Iowa State Cyclones are two teams that have struggled mightily this season. The Cyclones are in desperation mode as they try to avoid a winless season, while Kansas State has been demoralized by a five game losing streak.
Both these teams defenses have been pretty atrocious this season. On the other side of the ball, K State looked really dangerous earlier in the season, but of late look a little tired, and only accumulated 247 total yards of offense last week against Nebraska in a loss. Iowa State on the other hand behind quarterback Austen Arnaud who is off single-game pass conversion record by completing 36-of-54 passes for 326 yards, and a offense that is finally beginning to click and as a whole are looking extremely cohesive. Arnaud is completing 60.7 percent of his passes and has thrown 12 touchdowns, and Im expecting another top notch effort by the young man today. In last weeks loss to Missouri, the Cyclones recorded 444 yards of total offense. I know Kansas State will be at home today, but with a lame duck coach (Ron Prince) who will not be back next year on the sidelines, and a unmotivated group of Wildcat players on the field , a improving Iowa State team ,looks very much like the right side getting points. Final notes & Key Trends: The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion ratio of 58%+, losing SU by an average of 16 PPG.
Play on Iowa State 2* selection
Matt Fargo
Marshall at Rice
Play 5* Rice
Rice is having a season that few thought would take place. The Owls are bowl eligible for the second time in three years behind an offense that is one of the most exciting in the country. Rice is currently tied with Houston and Tulsa atop the C-USA West and a shot at the conference championship is still within reach. The Owls will need to win out, including a win at home next week against rival Houston and hope Tulsa loses one more game. That could set up a game against possibly East Carolina for the C-USA title.Marshall went down against Central Florida last week and that pretty much summed up the whole season which is a huge disappointment. Marshall needs to win its final two games to get to six wins but it wont be enough for a bowl since one of its wins came against FBS Illinois St. and those victories do not count toward bowl eligibility. The offense has stunk it up of late as Marshall has been held under 300 yards in four of its last six games and has scored only four touchdowns in the last two contests.The defense has struggled for Rice but it should not be overly concerned here against Marshall. The Owls are 115th in the nation in total defense and 11th in the conference. Not a lot of effort has been put into the unit based on the fact that the offense is capable of outscoring almost every opponent it faces. Marshall is struggling on offense as it is 92nd in the country in total offense and 96th in scoring offense. Both of those are 10th in C-USA and would be last if not for the Knights of Central Florida.On the other side, Rice is rolling behind school and conference passing record holder quarterback Chase Clement. The Owls are averaging 40.8 ppg, 322.6 passing ypg and 139.4 rushing ypg while tossing the fewest interceptions in C-USA with six. Rice has scored on 38-44 visits to the red zone with 34 of those trips resulting in touchdowns. The Owls have eclipsed 500 yards of offense in four of their last six games and they will be able to reach that mark again in what should be another rout. 5* Rice Owls
Boise St. at Nevada
Play 5*Nevada
With Ball St's win on Wednesday night, the Cardinals are trying to keep pace with Boise St. and Utah in the quest for an at-large BCS bid. All three teams have challenges this week and with one escaping already, the Broncos are on call. This is a big test and arguably the biggest this season. Boise St. was able to take care of Oregon back on November 20, but was lucky to do so. The Broncos were outgained in that contest, the only time that has happened thus far on the year,While Boise St. has been cruising along, Nevada is keeping pace. Two convincing wins ion a row have put the Wolf Pack at 6-4 and one game away from bowl eligibility since one of those wins came against FCS team Grambling. Nevada has been dominating of late as it has outgained its last four opponents by 821 total yards. Two home losses are a surprise including one against New Mexico St. that was completely uncalled for. The other came against Texas Tech in a game that they actually outgained the Red Raiders.Boise St. is once again the talk of the town as it is 10-0 and has been annihilating everything in its way. But there has not been a whole lot of resistance along the way. The Broncos have played the 123rd ranked schedule in the country meaning that teams such as Chattanooga and Northeastern have had an easier road. The last three wins have come against Idaho, Utah St. and New Mexico St. who are a combined 7-25. You can say all you want about the Broncos defense but it hasn't been tested like this.Nevada is 5th in the country in total offense and it has taken over the number one ranking in rushing offense, averaging 325 ypg. Boise St. has played only one team that is ranked even in the top 20 in both categories and that was Oregon. It is no surprise that the Ducks put up 32 points and 464 yards of offense, both of which were easily season highs allowed. The argument can be made that Nevada has not played a defense such as this, which it hasn?t, but I will take that offense in a must game at home any day. 5* Nevada Wolf Pack
FRANK PATRON
30000 UNIT LOCK #29
AKRON ZIPS -2.5
Complete mistake here. Ohio is finished as they have been basically non competitive for a while and Akron is playing to keep slim bowl hopes alive. Akron has lost 5 games this year 4 of which came against undefeated Ball State Wisconsin Cincinnati and Buffalo with the Cincy and Buffalo losses coming by a combined 5 points. They also lost to Bowling Green by 4.
This is a good football team whose record doesnt reflect that and you mean to tell me we get them at this low of a line today. Great value here. One of Ohios 2 wins came against VMI who isnt even a D-1 team and they gave up 31 against them.
Akron will score at will as they roll to a 4TD rout.
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
6 STAR SELECTION
BYU +7 over UTAH
Other than the regular-season title in the Mountain West Conference, a chance to compete in a BCS bowl game, and state bragging rights in the “Holy War”, not much is on the line Saturday when the 16th-ranked Cougars make the short trip to Sale Lake to tangle with and the 8th-ranked and unbeaten Utes.
Riding a 12-game win streak dating back to last season, Utah is 11-0 for just the second time in school history and entered this week as one of only five undefeated college football programs. The Utes have already clinched at least a share of the MWC crown, having beaten TCU, but needs a win here to be all alone atop the standings. Utah blew away San Diego State last week in a lopsided 63-14 decision.
As for BYU, their only loss this season came at TCU back on October 16th. The Cougars have managed to bounce back and have won four in a row since then, including a dominant 38-24 victory at Air Force last week to give the program 10 wins for the third straight season and leaving them the possibility of gaining at least a share of their third straight Mountain West Conference title.
Last year, the Cougars picked up a 17-10 win in the annual meeting for their 2nd straight Holy War victory.
Quarterback Max Hall delivered another huge effort for the Cougars last week with his 354 yards and two touchdowns. Opponents also have to be aware of running back Harvey Unga coming out of the backfield. Unga posted a pair of touchdowns versus Air Force and now has eight on the season to go along with his team-best 945 yards rushing.
BYU played very strong defense early in the season, shutting out UCLA and Wyoming, along with allowing just 3 points in a win over New Mexico. Then, the team allowed at least 32 points in three straight games, but have got stronger the past 2 weeks, allowing just 12 to San Diego State and 24 on the road against a very good Air Force squad. Overall, the Cougars are 21st in the nation in scoring defense with a respectable 19 ppg allowed.
QB Brian Johnson runs the show for Utah, and might have had his best game of the season last week after under-achieving for most of the season. Despite having nine picks, Johnson has remained under control for the Utes and has 20 TDs to show for his efforts, even if he does seem to run hot and cold from one half to the next.
On defense, Utah place second in the MWC and 13th in the country with a mere 17 ppg allowed, a number only slightly better than BYU.
The pressure for perfection was on the Cougars earlier in the season, and they couldn’t quite pull it off. Now, the pressure is on Utah and there's little room for error with so much riding on the outcome. Max Hall is perhaps the better passer in this contest, and we look for him to play a great game with few mistakes.
Being a big underdog, the pressure will be off BYU and they would love nothing more than to spoil the Ute’s perfect season. As bad as the Cougars felt with the loss to TCU, they can now pin that pain on their most-hated rival, which is a very motivating factor.
As it is, BYU is 5-0 ATS as underdog of less than 21 points vs. Utah, 7-0 SU (+8.6 ppg) & 7-0 ATS (+14.9 ppg) as a regular season conference underdog off a SU & ATS win since at least 1980, 5-0 ATS off playing Air Force, and 6-0 ATS after beating Air Force.
In fact, conference underdogs are 9-0 ATS off a favorite SU win against Air Force of more than 3 points.
The BYU win over a hot Falcons team can’t be overlooked here, as it should provide a huge boost of confidence for the Cougars. Underdogs off a road win that ended an opponent’s winning streak have been quite prepared to end another as shown by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play ON an underdog of more than 2 points off a road SU win against an opponent off 3 SU wins vs. an opponent off 6 SU wins and an ATS win in its last game.
Since 1990, these confident underdogs are a sparkling 14-0 ATS, while blasting the spread by 13 points per game on average.
Meanwhile, the Utes have been horrible against teams on roll. In fact, they are a nearly unbelievable 0-15 ATS (-10 ppg) as a conference favorite of more than 1 point vs. opponents off 2 SU wins. As a favorite of more than 2 points vs. opponents off 3 SU wins, Utah is SU: 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by an incredible 19.3 ppg!
We played on Utah a few weeks ago as a small home underdog against TCU because they have been great as a home underdog, and they rewarded us with a late TD for the win; however, it’s a different story as a small favorite at home. The Utes are 0-6 SU (-11.5 ppg) & 0-6 ATS (-15.4 ppg) as a Saturday home favorite of less than 8 points with less than 13 days rest since 2000.
We are getting great line value here due to Utah’s crushing win over San Diego State and BYU flying under the radar since losing to TCU, but a nice spread win doesn’t mean the Utes will play well here. In fact, they qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 7 on, play AGAINST a Saturday undefeated home favorite of 3½-11½ points with less than 13 days rest off an ATS win as a favorite of 7+ points.
These unbeaten teams have failed to cover the spread in this situation FIFTEEN straight times. Actually the streak could be worse than that, as the 0-15 ATS mark goes back to 1980, which is as far back as the SportsDataBase goes. These teams have failed to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game. Such a spread loss here, would end the Utes’ perfect season, which is exactly what we expect to see, as the Cougars win a wild one.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BYU 31 UTAH 28
5 STAR SELECTION
Stanford +8½ over CALIFORNIA
The Cardinal will try to become bowl eligible in their regular season finale this weekend, as they invade Berkeley to tangle with the Golden Bears in Pac-10 play. Stanford fought hard but fell to Top 10 USC, 45-23 last weekend. It was the second straight setback for team, which dipped to 5-6 overall. Still, with a win in its regular season finale this weekend, the Cardinal would earn bowl eligibility for the first time since the 2001 season.
As for California, it is also riding a two-game losing streak following a 34-21 loss at Oregon State last weekend. With a win this weekend, the Bears would post at least seven wins for the seventh year in a row, a feat that the program has never accomplished before. The Bears had won five in a row of this traditional series until getting knocked off last year at Stanford.
The Cardinal have been able to produce 27 ppg mainly because of the success on the ground, where the team is averaging over 200 ypg this season. The club is churning out 5 yards per carry and has scored 25 of its 35 touchdowns via the run. Last weekend, Stanford again posted over 200 on the ground, even against a top defense like USC. On the season, Toby Gerhart heads the Cardinal with over 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns
Stanford has had some struggles on defense at times this season and is giving up 26 ppg and 379 total ypg, but has made up for some of those yards by forcing 20 turnovers and recording 33 sacks.
The Golden Bears are averaging a solid 31.5 ppg on the year, but was limited to just 232 total yards, including only 85 rushing, in a loss to Oregon State last weekend. Quarterback Kevin Riley was sacked five times and that certainly affected his performance which consisted of 117 yards and touchdown on 11-of-25 tosses. On the season, Riley has completed just 50% of his pass attempts, with 11 touchdowns against five interceptions. Riley figures to get plenty of heat from the Cardinal rushers on Saturday.
On the defensive side of the ball, Cal has held opponents to 22 ppg and 315 total ypg. The unit is giving up 124 ypg on the ground, which should allow Stanford at least some running room. Last weekend, the Bears held Oregon State to just 145 passing yards with an interception, but they ended up allowing 194 rushing yards in the setback.
Here, we can play ON an underdog getting points in line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation and the favorite is not in a “get-up” situation.
If the underdog has been fairly consistent with respect to its performances as compared to the Power Ratings, this will be a case of a team not getting the respect it deserves and being under-rated by the wagering public. Here, we are getting more than a FG worth of line value with Stanford according to our Power Ratings.
We also like to play ON the underdog in a late-season rivalry game that has historically been close. Certain series have a history of hard-fought, close games. Points are extremely valuable in these contests.
In Tedford’s first 3 seasons at Cal, the Bears had an easy time with Stanford, going 3-0 SU & ATS. Since 2004, however, Cal’s scoring has decreased against the Cardinal going from 41 points to 27 to 26 to 13 points last year. Meanwhile, Stanford’s scoring has gone from 3 points in 2005 to 17 to 20 points in last year’s Cardinal victory.
Stanford is 4-0 ATS the last 4 as a conference underdog, 3-0 ATS this season vs. opponents playing with revenge, and a staggering 19-0-1 ATS (+12.4 ppg) with less than 13 days rest off playing USC vs. opponents not off a conference SU & ATS win as a favorite of more than 2 points.
On the other hand, Cal is 0-7 ATS (-14.1 ppg) from Game 8 on off a SU loss the last 3 seasons, 0-6 ATS (-11.1 ppg) at home before 7+ days rest with another home game next and not an underdog of 14+ points, and 0-2 ATS (-20.8 ppg) vs. Stanford the past 2 seasons.
While Stanford has a lot to play for as they are trying to obtain bowl eligibility, the Golden Bears don’t have a lot to motivate them here, as they are destined for a minor bowl regardless of what they do the rest of the season.
With the motivation factor clearly favoring the big underdog, we expect this game to go right down to the wire and be decided by a late FG, which will give the Cardinal a spread win, either way.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: STANFORD 23 CALIFORNIA 20
3 STAR SELECTION
TULSA -28½ over Tulane
The Green Wave travel north to take on the Golden Hurricane for a Saturday Conference USA clash. Tulane carries a six-game losing streak into this contest, and all but one of the losses during the slide have come by double figures. Last weekend, they dropped a 41-24 decision to UAB in front of a dejected home crowd. All but one opponent in the last six games have scored at least 35 points, so shaky defense has been a major reason for the run of futility.
As for Tulsa, it won its first eight games this season and appeared to be a major contender in Conference USA. Unfortunately, the last two outings have resulted in defeat, including an embarrassing 70-30 setback to Houston on the road last weekend. Now, back at home, they will look to get back on track.
Tulane is scoring less than 19 ppg, as they have been inept at running or passing the ball. The team is rushing for an average of just 3.8 yards per attempt, and 13 interceptions haven't done much to help the cause. The ground attack is led by Andre Anderson's 864 yards and seven scores, but he was lost for the season with a shoulder injury a few weeks ago. Jeremy Williams is the best of the team's receivers, as he scored five touchdowns on 27 catches in five games, but he has also been lost for the season because of knee injury. Clearly, the Tulane team that will take the field this weekend is seriously depleted.
Tulane is yielding more than 31 ppg, as they have struggled mightily against the run, allowing 5.2 yards per attempt and 175.3 ypg, and they are permitting 11.3 yards per pass completion. Tulane surrendered 426 total yards to pitiful UAB last weekend, including 272 rushing yards on 46 attempts. The Green Wave yielded four touchdowns on the ground and were simply pushed around in the contest by a horrible Blazer team and now have to face a very good and very angry football team in their final home game.
Tulsa is averaging a staggering 50 ppg and 584 total ypg this season, as the offense has scored a total of 65 touchdowns. QB Johnson has thrown for 37 touchdowns against 11 interceptions, completing 66% of his passes for over 3,000 yards.
The Golden Hurricane defense obviously played horribly last week, giving up 70 points, and desperately need a solid win to get on track. The Green Wave have nothing but pride to play for, and they don’t seem to have much of that left, so this should get ugly in a hurry. With the Tulane offense simply too depleted at this point to pose a serious threat, there’s little hope of them mounting any sort of comeback once they fall behind big.
The Green Wave is 0-8 SU (-25 ppg) & 0-8 ATS (-11 ppg) as an underdog of more than 9 points vs. an opponent off a SU loss of 3+ points as a favorite of more than 1 point.
We often look to play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance. A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. When the players openly admit to being embarrassed by the result of their last effort, expect their best effort next time out. You can’t get much more embarrassed than giving up 70 points and losing by 40 points.
Being back at home and playing the sacrificial lamb Green Wave is just what the Golden Hurricane needs here, as they are 6-0 SU (+42.3 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+29.7 ppg) in their last 6 home/neutral site games, and 3-0 SU (+27.7 ppg) & 3-0 ATS (+14.7 ppg) the last 3 years vs. Tulane.
Finally, we have a couple of NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS that demonstrate just how strongly Tulsa should rebound here. The first one states:
From Game 5 on, play ON a conference home favorite of 24+ points off a SU loss of 22+ points.
Under those simple conditions, these angry teams have gone 18-0 SU (+42.1 ppg) & 17-0-1 ATS (+14 ppg) since 1993. It’s 2-0 SU & ATS this season, with Missouri’s 58-0 blasting of Colorado as a 24-point favorite as the most recent example.
Secondly, after allowing an embarrassing 70 points in its previous game, teams have come back strong against opponents not off a big win. This POWER SYSTEM instructs:
Play ON a team off allowing 70+ points vs. an opponent not off a SU win 12+ points.
Just since 2004 these teams are 13-0 ATS, beating the spread by 13 points per game on average. The most recent example was, ironically enough, UAB against Tulane just last week. The Blazers had given up 70 points to Southern Mississippi, but bounced back to defeat the Green Wave 41-24 as 4-point road dogs to beat the spread by 3 TDs.
Now Tulane must face another ticked-off team, and if they thought UAB gave them a hard time, they are in for a really long day in Tulsa. It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Golden Hurricane to put up 70 points here to really get last week’s loss out of their system. Even if they fall short of that number, they should have no problem flattening the Green Wave and easily covering this 4-TD number.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TULSA 56 TULANE 17
3 STAR SELECTION
PENN STATE -15½ over Michigan State
A trip to the Rose Bowl is on the line for the 7th-ranked Nittany Lions Saturday, as they play host to the 17th-ranked Spartans.
Michigan State has put together a 9-2 record that includes a 6-1 mark against conference opponents. If the Spartans somehow beat Penn State and Ohio State somehow loses to Michigan, the Spartans will represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.
On the other hand, Penn State clinches a berth in the Rose Bowl with a simple win, as it knocked off Ohio State earlier this season to claim that tie-breaker. The Nittany Lions have already earned their 20th 10-win season under legendary head coach Joe Paterno.
Michigan State is averaging 27 ppg and a modest 355 total ypg, leaning heavily on tailback Javon Ringer, and he has proven to be true workhorse. Through 11 games, Ringer has carried the ball a staggering 353 times for over 1,500 yards and 20 TDs. QB Hoyer has completed only 49% of his passes for just nine touchdowns.
Penn State possesses an offense that has achieved tremendous balance this season. The Nittany Lions are racking up over 39 ppg, rushing for 218 ypg while passing for 224 ypg. QB Daryll Clark has been solid, completing 60% of his passes for nearly 2000 yards and 13 touchdowns against just four INTs. Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood form a tremendous trio of wideouts for Clark.
There is no question that Penn State has been one of the best defensive teams in the nation this season. The Nittany Lions are yielding only 12 ppg and 259 total ypg. They are limiting foes to 101 rushing ypg on 3.0 ypc, and they have intercepted 14 passes while allowing a mere five touchdowns through the air.
Expect Penn State to shut down Ringer, get a lead, and force Michigan State to abandon the run. Spartans QB Hoyer is unlikely to rally the offense, making for a long day.
Assuming that Ohio State beats a horrible Michigan team, the Spartans will know they have NO chance for the Rose Bowl before they even take the field, or shortly thereafter. That will certainly take some wind out of their sails, giving them little to play for. Even if they lose at Penn State, the Spartans still should be assured of a New Year's Day bowl game.
Michigan State is 0-2 ATS as an underdog this season, and are 0-5 SU (-19.6 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-14.5 ppg) on the road off a season home finale ATS win vs. opponents not off a road underdog SU win.
Meanwhile, Penn State is 9-0 SU (+25 ppg) & 9-0 ATS (+14.4 ppg) in their final home game off a conference favorite SU win and not an underdog of more than 4 points since at least 1980.
We also have the Nittany Lions active for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which tells us:
In its Final Game, play ON a 1-SU loss home team (not a favorite of more than 24 points) off a SU win in its last game and a SU loss in either of its 2 games before that vs. an opponent not off 9 SU wins.
These teams have been perfect since at least 1980, and perhaps longer than that, as that is as far back as the SportsDataBase goes, with a 12-0 SU & ATS mark.
While the Spartans motivation will likely be taken away with an Ohio State win earlier in the day over the Wolverines, Penn State will still need the win to qualify for the Rose Bowl; otherwise, the Buckeyes will go to Pasadena. The Nittany Lions aren’t about to let that happen, especially after last year’s late-season loss to this opponent cost them a better bowl. The home team will be treating this as a playoff game, while the visitors figure to fade down the stretch, allowing the hosts to roll up a SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PENN STATE 40 MICHIGAN STATE 17
3 STAR SELECTION
NEVADA +7 over Boise State
The 9th-ranked Broncos hope to keep their perfect season intact as they hit the road once again to face off against the high-scoring Wolf Pack in a Western Athletic Conference showdown in Reno Saturday afternoon.
Boise State is one of five college football teams that is still undefeated at 10-0 and hoping to once again crash the BCS party. Last weekend, the team dismantled in-state rival Idaho in a 45-10 decision at the Kibbie Dome in Moscow, although they failed to beat the spread for the 2nd game in a row.
As for Nevada, they're currently tied with Louisiana Tech in second place in the WAC with a 4-2 record. The WolfPack lost to nationally ranked Big 12 teams in Texas Tech and Missouri in back-to-back games early in the season, has now have won two in a row thanks to a 41-17 triumph over San Jose State last Saturday.
Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore has been a pleasant surprise for the Broncos offense, as he finished the Idaho game 23-of-31 for 210 yards last week. Moore, along with a powerful running game, has guided the team to second in the conference and 16th in the nation in scoring with 37 ppg despite his youth.
The scoring defense is ranked first in the conference and second in the entire nation with a mere 10 ppg allowed. Here, though, they will be tested by a Nevada offense that is red-hot right now.
WolfPack QB Colin Kaepernick logged his fourth 100-yard rushing game of the season last week, while also helping the team to break a school-record for rushing in a single season with still two games to play. Kaepernick is first in the conference in total offense with his 286 ypg, while the team as a whole is first in the nation in rushing with an astounding 325 ypg being produced by the pistol offense.
While the offense was rolling up yards every which way for the Wolf Pack, the defense dominated the San Jose State running game, allowing a MINUS-23 yards on 16 attempts. The squad is second in the conference and ninth in the nation in both sacks and TFLs per game. Whether its because the offense has generated so many points per game or because the defense gets to practice against the best rushing offense in the nation, the run defense for the Wolf Pack is second-best in the entire country this week, allowing an average of only 64 ypg. This should serve them quite well here, and keep them in the game.
As good as Boise State is, this will be a very tough spot for them, as they are 0-6 ATS (-9.3 ppg) as an undefeated road favorite vs. opponents not seeking revenge for an ATS loss 8+ points. Last year, Nevada covered the spread by 24 points in their 4-OT 69-67 loss at Boise, so the WolfPack know they can play with this team.
The Broncos have been making many trips lately and it could very well catch up to them here. Coming off a road game and playing its 4th road game in 5 outings as Boise State is here, has been very hard for late-season underdogs and small favorites trying to avoid a rare loss. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 7 on, play AGAINST a road team (not a favorite of more than 10 points) with less than 2 season SU losses off a road game and playing its 4th road contest in its last 5 games vs. an opponent not off 2 ATS losses of more than 21 points each.
Since 1984, these teams have floundered, going 1-14-1 SU (-15.2 ppg) & 0-16 ATS (-12.9 ppg). One team has already been victimized this season, costing them a perfect season, as Penn State lost at Iowa, 24-23, favored by 7½ points.
We also note that from Game 7 on, undefeated road/neutral site teams not favored by 14+ points, despite scoring 39+ points in each of its last 3 games are 0-10 ATS since at least 1980 vs. opponents not off an ATS loss of 7+ points.
Here, we are going to play ON an underdog getting points in line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation and the favorite is not in a “get-up” situation.
If the underdog has been fairly consistent with respect to its performances as compared to the Power Ratings, this will be a case of a team not getting the respect it deserves and being under-rated by the wagering public. The public is certainly loading up on the Broncos, but our Power Ratings actually show the wrong team being favored here, by a very slight margin.
The Nevada defense is being vastly under-rated here, and we like to play ON an underdog that is allowing less than 3 yards per rush on the season from October on.
The WolfPack are 7-0 ATS (+13.6 ppg) as a home underdog seeking revenge for a SU loss of less than 31 points in the previous season, and they certainly have not forgotten last year’s close call against the Broncos. This year, we expect the WolfPack to not only cover the spread, but to pull off the big upset win outright.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NEVADA 34 BOISE STATE 30
PickLogic
Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Selection: OVER the "total" of 195.5
Wager:3 X
Tim Trushel
20* Tennessee
10* Pittsburgh
10* Iowa St.
10* BYU
10* Arizona
Al DeMarco
10 Dime - Arizona
You might recall that last week in this space I had told you to back Oregon State as my PAC-10 Game of the Year at home against California. Although the Beavers delivered with a 34-21 win, recovering from an early 7-0 deficit, I was surprised that the game was that close considering they were playing in Corvallis and the Golden Bears had been struggling offensively because of quarterback issues.
No doubt Oregon State has dominated this series, but then again, this is the best and most competitive team Arizona has fielded in a number of years. Yes, the Wildcats are coming off a 55-45 loss at Oregon last Saturday, a game they trailed 48-17 early before making an aborted comeback bid. To be honest, their rally didn't impress me at all because the Ducks simply relaxed after taking such a big first-half lead. Look for S. Mingee to have a standout performance and gain much support from the home fans. Clearly Arizona came out with a lack of focus after become bowl eligible a week earlier with a road win versus Washington State.
So why the change of heart on my part on week later regarding Oregon State? Keep in mind the Beavers' two wins this season on the road came against Washington and UCLA, two teams that are a combined 4-16 SU this season. Plus, this game is being played on a grass field, which will affect their biggest asset offensively: their speed.
Arizona is a much better team at home than on the road, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in Tucson this season where they've covered by a combined 79.5 points. Their two best performances came in league games against Southern Cal (a hard-fought 17-10 loss) and California (a 42-27 win that wasn't as close as the final score indicated). Note that was the same Cal team that Oregon State struggled with at home last Saturday.
Oregon State's defense is coming off a five-sack performance - their third in five games - against California, but Arizona quarterback Willie Tuitama (328 yards, 2 TDs vs. Oregon last week; 2,321 yards, 18 TDs this season) has the mobility to keep the pass rush at bay. And unlike previous seasons, he's getting ground support from the likes of Nic Grigsby, who has rushed for 941 yards to pace the PAC-10's second-ranked scoring offense, a unit that averages 39.7 points a game.
Expect a high-scoring game with the Wildcats prevailing in a shooting in the desert by seven.