Christian Alexander
Matchup: Boston College at Wake Forest
Play: Wake Forest (-2.0 -110)
Wake can not afford another loss in conference or all hopes for making a trip to the ACC Championship will be lost.
No question the Deacons have struggled recently but they are dangerous at home and QB Riley Skinner should have success against a soft BC secondary. Look for WR D.J. Boldin, who leads the ACC in catches per game with an average of 6.1 to have a big game.The Eagles won't be able to slug it out in the trenches here and will suffer a close loss.
Matchup: Stanford at California
Play: Stanford (+9 -110)
Stanford has been stuck on five wins for the past couple weeks, meaning they are on the doorstep of being eligible but not yet there. A trip to Oregon and a visit from the Trojans have the Cardinal on a mini two- game losing streak. Coach Jim Harbaugh knows his squad has one game left to reach the postseason so expect max effort from Stanford.
Cal is on a two-game losing streak as well and if they aren't careful, could end the season with three straight losses.
Look for Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard to give the Golden Bears defense fits, especially with his scrambling ability. As long as Pritchard limits his mistakes - and most importantly, turnovers - Harbaugh and company should be right there at the end.
Matchup: BYU at Utah
Play: BYU (+7 -110)
You have to go all the way back to 1994 to find the last time these two hooked up when both were ranked. But I promise you this, there wasn't as much on the line then as there will be this Saturday.
The key stat here to me is this: Each of the last three Utah-BYU games have come down to the final minute.
Outside of a blemish at TCU, the Cougars have been every bit as impressive as Utah if not more.Too many points in a game that could go either way.
Matchup: Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Play: Texas Tech (+7 -110)
This line is all about respect. Too much for the Sooners and too little for the Red Raiders.
Seriously, if Texas Tech hasn't proved by now that they have the best offense in the land, I'm not sure what else they can do.
So you have to look at defense. Yes, historically that has been a weak spot with the Red Raiders. But this year is different, just look at what they did to Oklahoma State and Texas - at least for a half.
Granted, those two games were both at Texas Tech and this is on the road in Norman - and make no mistake, it will be hostile.
But if that's the only difference - and I think it is - it's not worth seven points.I'll take my chances with the superior offense and a very well coached team.
Matchup: Indiana at Purdue
Play: Indiana (+11 -110)
Any game that plays for something called the "Old Oaken Bucket" is good by me.
The question I have here is how the hell is Purdue favored by 11 points over anyone? Yes, Indy has been pretty pitiful at 3-8, 1-6 but guess what? That's the exact same record that Purdue has. The Boilers have only beaten one team by double digits and that was Northern Colorado.
Last time I checked, home field advantage was worth three points, not ten. Throw the records out when these two teams play and guess what? I'm gonna take a taste of the Hoosiers on the money line as well.
Strong play here.
Bullseye
West Virginia at Louisville
Play: Louisville (7-110)
West Virginia needs to win out if it is to take down the Big East championship and a BCS bowl bid, which makes this game against a .500 Louisville team crucial. Despite Louisville's disappointing play, 1-4 in the Big East, winning at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium is never easy and they have called for a "Black Out", where everyone wears black to the game. The last time WVU came to Louisville it was the same scenario and the Cardinals prevailed. The two teams have met 10 times and WVU has won seven of them. There have been some memorable games in the series, including WVU's initial Big East victory over Louisville in overtime and last year's 38-31 shootout that wasn't decided until QB Patrick White broke loose for a 50-yard run in the closing minutes. That capped a day in which he had 328 total yards. White again will hold the key to this game, for if he can find his running magic again the Mountaineers will be able to keep Louisville's strong offense off the field.
Arkansas at Miss. State
Play: Miss. State (1.5-110)
The Razorbacks enter needing to win out to go bowling under first-year coach Bobby Petrino. The Bulldogs are still trying to find answers on offense as coach Sylvester Croom comes under increasing scrutiny.
WR Arceto Clark -- May see more time. He caught a pass and had a carry against Alabama, bringing the total plays in which he's touched the football this year to six. The coaching staff has drawn scrutiny over whether the burning of his redshirt was justified.
C J.C. Brignone -- He will probably return to center this week. Look for Michael Gates at left guard and Craig Jenkins at right. Brignone played left guard last week with backup D.J. Looney starting at center.
LB Dominic Douglas -- Continues to persevere as the defense's team leader. He had six tackles in the first quarter last week alone and promises no quit when Arkansas comes to town. He has battled an ankle and a groin injury recently.
Iowa State at Kansas State
Play: Kansas State (-9.5-110)
Since the inception of the Big 12, outgoing coaches in the league have gone 7-14 in their final games. That's a mark Ron Prince will impact in his final game as the Wildcats try to prevent the Cyclones from dragging them into the North Division cellar. The matchup pits the two worst defenses in the conference and the teams with the longest losing streaks, nine for Iowa State and five for Kansas State. One attribute for the Cyclones is they lead the league with 26 takeaways. QB Austen Arnaud is developing as a passer for Iowa State. The sophomore ranks 28th nationally with 2,352 yards
Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma (-6.5-110)
The biggest game in the nation, the Red Raiders are playing to reach the Big 12 championship game and possibly the national championship game, while an Oklahoma victory can throw the Big 12 South division into a tiebreaker scenario that would involve Texas Tech, Texas and Oklahoma.
QB Sam Bradford -- For a change, the Sooner will share the field with another quarterback of similar credentials in Tech's Graham Harrell. Still, Bradford has a case as the nation's best quarterback, having completed 67.9f his passes, 38 for touchdowns against six interceptions. He is averaging 340 yards through the air each game and, maybe his most impressive number, more than 10 yards per attempt: 330 attempts, 3,406 yards.
Larry Ness
GOY - 10* Arizona
7* Revenge Rout TCU
Superstar Triple Play
9* Oklahoma
15* Utah
15* Purdue (rivalry GOM)
Lee Kostroski
10* CFB Midwest Game - 82% lifetime!!
Penn State (-) vs. Michigan State
The Nittany Lions are playing for the right to go to their first Rose Bowl since 1994. Their calling it the biggest game in Beaver Stadium since PSU joined the Big Ten back in 1993. It’s also Senior Day for 17 players on the Penn State team and they can be the first class to win two Big Ten titles (they earned one in 2005 also). On top of that, tickets are going for astronomical prices as many believe this could be Joe Paterno’s final home game as head coach. Of course that is all speculation, however either way the atmosphere will be beyond electric.
Now to the game on the field. We feel that PSU is the FAR superior team here and apparently so do the odds makers who’ve made them a two TD chalk, despite the fact that MSU is also playing for a share of the conference title. However, a PSU win puts them in the Rose Bowl while if the Spartans win (they won’t) they also need Michigan to win at Ohio State for them to jet off to California. That won’t happen either. Penn State has huge advantages on BOTH sides of the ball here. On offense they are averaging 442 yards per game (6.39 yards per play) ranking them 18th nationally. MSU puts up 355 YPG (just 5.11 yards per play) which puts them in the bottom half of all college teams at 66th. The defensive side of the ball is a very similar story. The Nittany Lions are in the top 10 in EVERY major defensive category (yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed). Penn State is 4th nationally in overall defense giving up just 258 total yards (4.15 yards per play). The Spartans give up 340 yards per game (5.04 yards per play) which is again middle of the pack in the NCAA. Thus in the yards per play differential PSU is a great +2.24 while MSU is a very mediocre +0.07. That’s quite a large disparity with basically and entire season of statistics.
While the Spartans are 9-2, we’ve been rather unimpressed for the most part. While they have won six of their seven conference games, MSU has actually been out gained in four of those seven games. The only teams they have out yarded in conference play were Michigan, Purdue and Indiana who just happen to sit at 9th, 10th and 11th place in the conference going into this weekend. Their Big Ten road schedule has been very easy for the most part. Their three conference road games have come at Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern. The Spartans win at Northwestern was a gift as the Wildcats lost despite out gaining MSU by 162 total yards.
This Spartan team is carried by their running game. RB Javon Ringer is very good, but he is really starting to wear down late in the season. Watching him against Wisconsin a few weeks ago, he simply doesn’t have the burst he had earlier in the year and it’s not even close. That’s what happens when a team leans on a tailback to carry the ball 30+ times each game. He had just 54 yards on 21 carries in that game vs. the Badgers. He cracked the 100-yard barrier in his most recent game vs. Purdue, however he only averaged 3.7 yards per carry in that game. And that was against a Boilermaker defense that ranks 96th in the nation in rush defense. Now he faces a top 10 rush defense on the road. We realize that MSU had two weeks off, however that isn’t enough time to recoup from getting beat up for 11 straight games. To push the point home even more, MSU has actually been out rushed in 4 of their last 6 games and they have somehow gotten by because of the level of competition and mistakes by the opposition. Not here. They don’t want to rely on QB Brian Hoyer who has completed just 49% of his passes this year but they will have to in this game. MSU’s luck runs out at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.
Many are concerned that Penn State’s offense is struggling. We don’t agree. They haven’t been putting up 40+ PPG as they were earlier, however much of that is due to the defenses they have faced. Ohio State held them to 13 and the Bucks are excellent on defense. Iowa held them to 23, however PSU had five scoring opportunities in the red zone but settled for field goals. They simply weren’t efficient @ Iowa. Last week they were in gigantic letdown mode vs. Indiana after their first loss of the season @ Iowa. They only scored 10 points in the first half before snapping out of their “haze” and rolling to a 34-7 win. With the shock of their first loss now two weeks behind them and smell of roses right in front of them, this will be the PSU team we saw a month ago. They will ROLL to a big win vs. a vastly over rated Michigan State team.
Keith Martin Sports
CBB
Clemson -3.5 (Best Bet)
Kansas st +1.5
Boston Coll. -2
New Mexico -15
Big Al
NCAAF
4* Nevada +7
3* Tennessee +3
3* Tulsa -28
3* Memphis-5
3* North Carolina -11
3* Houston -16.5
3* Utah -7
1* Hawaii -23
NCAAB
3* East Carolina
3* Evansville
1* Georgetown
1* Marquette
IndianCowboy
Michigan State Spartans @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Pick: 3 units Penn State Nittany Lions -14.5 (POD)
Florida State Seminoles @ Maryland Terrapins
Pick: 3 units Maryland Terrapins +1
Erin Ryning
20* Purdue/ Indiana Over
10* Army
10* Virginia
ATS Financial Club
4 units NCSU +11
4 units Nevada +7
4 units Arkansas -1.5
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Texas Tech
10 Dime Nevada
5 Dime Pittsburgh
5 Dime Mississippi
BIG AL
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Michigan Wolverines plus the points over Ohio State. This is certainly one of the current Top 3 rivalries -- if not the overall #1 rivalry. And, absent any worthwhile statistics to the contrary, I'll always take a shot with a revenging underdog in a huge rivalry game. In this series, revenging underdogs are a solid 10-6 ATS since 1980, including 7-1 ATS when getting more than 4 points. Take Michigan.
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points over Clemson. Last week, UVa dropped its second straight game, 28-17 at Wake Forest, and Al Groh's men are now 5-5 on the year. Clemson also is 5-5, and the winner of this game will have achieved Bowl Eligibility status. Let's play on the Cavaliers here, as Virginia is 17-1 ATS at home vs. ACC Conference foes, provided Virginia lost its previous game, did not cover the spread in that loss, and is now NOT laying 3 or more points. Take Virginia.
At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions over Michigan State. The Spartans come into this afternoon's ballgame off 3 consecutive Big 10 Conference wins, but teams off three straight conference wins are a poor 83-147 ATS since 1980, if they're on the road against an opponent off a SU win, in which it scored more than 30 points. With PSU in off a 34-7 victory last week against Indiana, we'll take Joe Paterno's men to blow out MSU on Saturday.
Sixth Sense
2% BOSTON COLLEGE +2
2% L. TECH –6
2% NEVADA +7
2% UTAH –7
2% IOWA –6
2% OREGON STATE +2.5
Kelso
College Conference Blowout of the Year
UNLV (-10) over San Diego St
This game is one of those rare occasions in college football where one team grades out in more than 40 of the 47 step-by-step elements I use in my team-vs.-team analysis. In this case, UNLV grades out on top in 46 categories and thus has better than a 95% chance to cover the number. This is not to suggest UNLV is an outstanding football team but merely to note how absolutely dreadful is San Diego State (1-10), a team that has lost to I-AA Cal Poly, 29-27, and has beaten only 2-9 Idaho, 45-17. UNLV grades out on top at all the skill positions, with the over-all ability of its offense, with its defense and with its special teams. While standing just 5-6, UNLV is playing its best football right now and comes into this game off back-to-back wins over New Mexico and Wyoming. San Diego State lost to New Mexico, 70-7, and to Wyoming, 35-10. Now factor into the equation a UNLV win makes the Rebels bowl eligible for the first time since 2000, a year in which they upset Arkansas, 31-14, in the Las Vegas Bowl. If ever a game had blowout written all over it because of the grading differential and the incentive factor, it is this one.
atslocks.com
Rice -9 (10 unit play)
Boston College +2 (10 unit play)
Ohio State -20.5 (15 unit play)
North Carolina -11 (10 unit play)
Rocketman
Florida Atlantic @ Arkansas State
Play: 2* Florida Atlantic +4
Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Owls are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November. Owls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 conference games. Owls are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Red Wolves are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November. Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Red Wolves are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Red Wolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Red Wolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Red Wolves are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Red Wolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week. Red Wolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Red Wolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. We'll play Florida Atlantic for 2 units today!