SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Spylock

1 unit Miami Fla.
1 unit Boston College

ASA

6* Georgia Tech +8

4* Oklahoma State +7.5

ALLEN EASTMAN

$300.00 #373 Kentucky (+4.5) over Tennessee
I think that this is the year that Kentucky snaps a 23-year losing streak to Tennessee and spoils the "going away party" for Philip Fulmer. The week after UT announced that Fulmer wouldn't be back next year the Vols went out and laid an egg against a pathetic Wyoming team, so I don't think they should be laying points to anyone. Four of the last seven have been decided by six points or less, and I think the Wildcats get revenge for last year's rough overtime loss to the Vols.

$600.00 #340 Wake Forest (-4) over Vanderbilt
The Demon Deacons have a lot of seniors that are going to be playing their final home game, and they will be doing so against a team that they hammered by two touchdowns on the road last year. Wake is 7-3 ATS at home and is 16-7 ATS against a team with a winning record.

$800.00 #344 Virginia Tech (-8) over Virginia
Despite a terrible start to the season the Hokies have a shot to be right back where they seem to be every year: at the top of the ACC standings. If Tech wins they are going to the ACC Championship Game, and I think they are going to beat down their rivals just like they have done eight of the past nine years. Virginia is just 7-16 ATS on the road and do not travel well. This series has not been decided by less than 10 points since back in 1998 so I am not worried at all about this number. Virginia has lost road games by 11, 35, and 28 this season and I think they are going to get blown out in Blacksburg.

$1000.00 #342 Boston College (-7) over Maryland
Boston College has really been coming together over the last two weeks and I think that they are going to blowout Maryland for a spot in the ACC Title Game. B.C. has covered three straight games against bowl teams and are peaking at the right time. They will be without Chris Crane, but they didn't need him to earn a comeback win in the final minutes at Wake Forest. Maryland has been a bad road team this year. They lost at Middle Tennessee and they have been outscored by a combined 41 points in their last two road games. The B.C. defense is playing as well as anyone in the ACC and they will overwhelm the Terps.

Coach Ron Meyer

Locker Room Goy

Kentucky

Big Al Mcmordie

Computer Boys

Florida International

Chip Chirimbes

Lock Play

Oklahoma St

Northcoast

Big 12 Game Of The Week

Texas Tech

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NCAA Football:

1* Oklahoma State +250 (Good value on a good team at home)
1* Georgia Tech + 255
1* Oregon +125
2* Baylor/Texas Tech over 69
2* NV/La Tech over 61
2* Georgia Tech +8
2* Florida/FSU under 55
2* Hawaii -28
3* Houston/Rice over 78
3* Oregon +3
4* Memphis -14
4* Oklahoma/Oklahoma State over 75

NHL:

1* Bruins +105
1* Coyotes +140

NBA/NCAA Basketball:

2* Grizzlies -8
2* Clippers -1
2* Cavaliers -7
2* OKC/Memphis under 194

2* New Mexico -1

Kelso

100 unit Big 12 Rivalry Game Of The Year

100 Units Oklahoma -7½

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
Maryland (+7) 22 BOSTON COLLEGE 20
Boston College has out-scored their 10 Division 1A opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points and those foes are 3.3 points better than average. While the Eagles scoring margin and strength of schedule indicate they are a good team (they rank at 20th on a compensated points model), they really aren’t. Boston College has a very good defense that has yielded just 4.5 yards per play to 1A teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive unit, but the Eagles are horrible offensively – averaging only 4.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. So, BC is just 0.1 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage and they are now worse than average with starting quarterback Chris Crane out for the season. Crane was a below average quarterback that averaged just 5.6 yards per pass attempt, but freshman backup Dominique Davis has averaged only 4.4 ypa and 3.5 yards per pass play on 38 pass plays. I’ll assume Davis will be better with a full week of getting all the 1st team reps in practice, but backups are usually about 0.5 yards per pass play worse than the starter and that number is even worse for freshman backups. Maryland has been out-scored 20.0 to 20.8 this season but the Terrapins have out-gained their opponents 5.6 yppl to 5.2 yppl and they rate at 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and average on defense. Aside from being a better team from the line of scrimmage Maryland also has an edge in this game in special teams and should have better field position because of it. One of the reasons Boston College has had a better scoring margin than they should based on their yardage stats is because they’ve had an advantage in 3rd down conversions (37% to 32% for their opponents) while also converting on 14 of 19 4th downs while holding their opponents to 6 of 16 on 4th downs. I doubt that BC will continue to convert on 3rd and 4th downs as much with a freshman quarterback and Maryland has a great chance to win this game if 3rd and 4th down conversion percentage is close to even in this game, as my math model forecasts Maryland with 4.9 yppl and BC with 4.75 yppl. My math model actually favors the Terrapins to win straight up, but my math model projection is not 100% the true line, just as the actual vegas line is not 100% the true line. Over the years my research has shown that the true line on a game is in between what my math model predicts and what the actual point spread is. In this case the true line on this game is BC by just 3 points, which gives the Terrapins a 62.4% chance of covering at +7 points (59.8% at +6 ½, 59.0% at +6, 57.8% at +5 1/2 and 56.8% at +5). Boston College also applies to a negative 15-36 ATS letdown situation that plays against conference home favorites of more than 3 points after winning and covering 3 or more consecutive games when facing a team coming off exactly one loss (that situation is just 2-11 ATS for teams seeking revenge, as BC is). Maryland, meanwhile, is 3-0 straight up following a loss this season, winning all 3 times as underdogs to Cal, Wake Forest, and North Carolina. The Terps are also 11-3 ATS after a loss in which they scored less than 14 points under coach Ralph Friedgen, so I’ll look for them to bounce back with a good effort today after last week’s 3-37 loss to Florida State. I’ll take Maryland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars from +6 ½ to +5 points.

2 Star Selection
OKLAHOMA ST. (+7.0) 40 Oklahoma 37
Oklahoma sure looked unbeatable last week, but Texas looked unbeatable going into Texas Tech and the Longhorns lost that game straight up. This game is very similar to that one in that we’re getting a very quality team getting points at home in a great situation. Oklahoma’s offense has averaged 52.2 points per game on 7.3 yards per play and is 2.4 yppl better than average with QB Bradford on the field, but Oklahoma State has the 5th best offense in the nation, averaging 40.1 points on 7.1 yppl while rating at 1.9 yppl better than average. Quarterback Zac Robinson’s compensated yards per pass play number (9.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB) is second in the nation behind Bradford and the Cowboys have an outstanding rushing attack (5.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) that should have good success against a mediocre Oklahoma run defense (4.7 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yprp). Texas averaged 6.0 yprp while beating Oklahoma and the Cowboys are much better than the Longhorns running the ball and Robinson is actually more efficient throwing the ball than Colt McCoy on a compensated yards per pass play basis. Oklahoma State is certainly capable of keeping up with Oklahoma’s explosive offense in this game and the Cowboys defense held the explosive offensive units of Missouri and Texas to 23 points and 28 points, respectively (although they did get torched by Texas Tech) – so that unit is capable of slowing down a great attack. Oklahoma State covered the spread in 2 of 3 games against the other great Big 12 teams, losing by just 4 points at Texas and winning at Missouri, and all 3 of their games against great teams were on the road. Oklahoma’s only game away from home against a good team resulted in a 35-45 loss to Texas on a neutral field. My math model projects Oklahoma with a modest 553 to 494 edge in total yards and Oklahoma State has better special teams. My math model favors Oklahoma by only 4 ½ points after adjusting for the Sooners’ unbelievable red-zone efficiency (6.3 points averaged on each trip inside the opponent’s 20 yard line, scoring 56 touchdowns in 64 red-zone chances) and Oklahoma applies to a very negative 12-53 ATS road letdown situation. Oklahoma State had the luxury of a late season bye week to prepare for this game while the Sooners played the former #2 team in the nation last week. The Cowboys apply to a very strong 43-7-1 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs after a late season bye week and the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in this series the last 10 years. Also, the team coming in on a win streak generally struggled in this rivalry game, as the team entering this game off 2 or more wins is just 1-11-1 ATS if the opponent has not won their last 2 games (which is the case this year). Revenge has also worked in this series, with the revenging team going 17-7-1, including 9-1-1 ATS for the home team with revenge (8-0-1 ATS against a team on a win streak). Oklahoma State looks like a very good bet, but even I’m having a tough time making this as big a play as it should be after watching the Sooners in recent weeks. I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 ½ or more.

College Strong Opinions
ALABAMA (-14.0) 30 Auburn 10
Auburn has lost 6 consecutive times to Auburn, but this time the Crimson Tide have the better team and will be highly motivated to remain unbeaten heading into the SEC Championship game with Florida next week. Alabama applies to a 45-13-2 ATS situation that plays on unbeaten home favorites and the Tide should eventually pull away thanks to a stingy defense (4.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) that should limit a lame Tigers’ attack that has averaged just 4.5 yppl this season and just 12.6 points in 7 games against average or better defensive units – none of which are as good as Alabama’s defense. Auburn has been better offensively with Kodi Burns starting at quarterback the last 4 games but my math model still projects just 233 total yards at 3.6 yppl for Auburn in this game. The only concern in this game is that Auburn’s defense (0.7 yppl better than average) has an edge over Alabama’s offense (0.5 yppl better than average). The math still calls for the Tide to rack up a decent 373 total yards at home and the fair line on this game is 16 points. I’ll consider Alabama a Strong Opinion in this game at -14 points or less based on the good situation.

Larry Ness

LEGEND Play-CFB (11-3 in CFB s/'05)

Memphis -14

Tulane opened the '08 season with two impressive games. The Green Wave 'hung tough' at Alabama in their season opener, losing 20-6 to the team which enters this weekend 11-0 and No. 1 in every poll, as well as being No. 1 in the BCS standings. Tulane then almost upset East Carolina (lost 28-24) on September 13, a team which came in ranked No. 14 at the time, after opening its season with wins over then-No. 17 Va Tech and then-No.8 West Va. Tulane evened its record at 2-2 with wins over Louisiana-Monroe and SMU but Tulane never recovered after losing 44-13 at home (as 27-point favorites!) to an Army team on a 10-game losing streak. Tulane enters this game on a seven-game losing streak (2-5 ATS), having been outscored 284-106 (just one loss has come by less than 17 points). The Green Wave have been hit hard by injuries, none more devastating than the loss of RB Andre Anderson. From Sep 20-Oct 18, Anderson averaged 184.5 YPG (6.0 YPC) over Tulane's four games. However, since being lost for the season due to a dislocated shoulder, the Green Wave have averaged a miniscule 76.0 YPG (2.6 YPC) on the ground over their last four games as an entire team. QB Kevin Moore has three TD passes and seven INTs during the team's seven-game losing streak with five INTs and just one TD over the team's last five games (118 attempts). The defense has allowed 40.6 PPG during its seven-game slide and over the last three games, has allowed 570.7 YPG (46.3 PPG). I think you may have guessed that I'm NOT taking the points with Tulane. Memphis opened 0-3 but evened its record at 3-3. However, on a Friday night at home vs Louisville (Oct 10), the Tigers dominated Louisville in the boxscore (481 yards to 299) but lost, 35-28. The Cards scored on a 95 KO return plus returned two fumbles for TDs, including the game-winner in the fourth quarter. After all that, the Green Wave had pulled to within striking distance of first place in the C-USA East Division heading into last week's home game but lost 28-21 to UCF, falling out of contention. QB Arkelon Hall returned in that game and had a tough time against a solid UCF secondary, completing 15-of-35 passes for 183 yards (one TD / one INT), while rushing for 42 yards. Memphis outgained UCF 305-194 in yards and held them to just 10 FDs. Head coach Tommy West is in his eighth year at Memphis and he's led the Tigers to bowl games in FOUR of the last five seasons. Memphis can become bowl-eligible with a win here (although at 6-6, would surely not be guaranteed one) and I expect a good effort here against hapless and injury-riddled Tulane. RB Curtis Steele (1,040 yards / 5.7 YPC) was battling an illness last week, as he ran for only 38 yards on 15 carries. However, West said at his weekly press conference that he thinks Steele (hamstring) will be 100 percent this week and that QB Hall was basically "working off the rust" last week. Tulane's rush D allows a pathetic 203.8 YPG (5.7 YPC) so Steele should get "healthy in a hurry," while Hall should have little trouble vs the Green Wave pass D. Tulane only allows 178.6 YPG in the air (teams are too busy running the ball) but allows 63.0 percent completions, while giving up 18 TDs against just nine INTs. Memphis may not be bowl-bound even if it wins here but Tulane just doesn't have enough 'fight' left. LEGEND Play on Memphis (10*).

7* Bedlam Blockbuster (7-1 L/Sat)

Oklahoma State

7* Revenge Rout-Part 2 (7-1 L/Sat)

Rice Owls

Weekend Wipeout Winner:7-1 last Sat

Virginia Tech

Tony Karpinski

10* College Football Game of the Month

Tulane vs. Memphis
Pick:Memphis -14

Memphis is not yet bowl eligible so this is a critical game for the Tigers .Memphis is 8-1-1 the last 10 in this series and have owned Tulane winning by an average of 21 points. The Tigers allowed less than 200 yards last week while posting solid offensive numbers but still managed to lose. Tulane has now lost 7 straight and the defense was torn up last week for nearly 600 yards, mostly on the ground. The Wave has been out-scored by a nearly 3-to-1 margin in the last seven games, allowing an average of over 40 points per game. Memphis needs to win this game and Tulane has shown no signs of life since injuries have crippled the team. Memphis won by just a single point last season but that has not been the norm in this series. MEMPHIS ROLLS BY 24

Pointwise Phone Plays

3* South Carolina
3* Florida
3* Georgia Tech
3* Alabama
2* UCLA(Friday)
2* Arkansas St
2* N C State

Fairway Jay

20* Oklahoma St