Gameday
4* Texas Tech
Scott Spreitzer
College GOY
Memphis
EZ Winners
NCAA Football
3 star Rice +3 over Houston
3 star Oregon +3 over Oregon St.
3 star Missouri -16 over Kansas St.
NBA
1 star Wizards -1 over Hawks
1 star Timberwolves +4.5 over Denver
1 star Bucks +7 over Cavs
NCAA Hoops
1 star Detroit +2 over St. Louis
1 star Kentucky +8 over West Virginia
1 star California -3.5 over Fla. St
Bob Akmens
10-1 NBA run
Wash/Atl under 200.5
Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
**GEORGE MASON (-5 ½) over Ohio
Ohio is 2-0 with impressive wins of 74-55 over William & Mary and 79-68 at Austin Peay, but a look at the boxscores of those games reveals an abundance of positive random variance that the Bobcats are not likely to be blessed with going forward. Ohio made a ridiculous 16 of 29 3-point shots (55%) in those two victories while their opponents made just 9 of 38 shots (23.7%) from beyond the arc. Ohio made just 34.6% of their 3-pointers last year and calculating the expected number of 3-pointers made for each player based on his 3-point percentage since last season would predict 39.4% 3-pointers made, which would be an expected 11.4 made 3-pointers out of 29 attempts rather than 16 made 3-pointers. Ohio’s opponent’s combine to average 36.7% 3-pointers made this season, but those teams made just 23.7% against Ohio. Part of that should be attributed to Ohio’s defense, but the teams that lead the nation in 3-point percentage defense each season allow about 5% less than their opponents would normally make, so I’ll assume that anything under 31% 3-pointers allowed is purely random good luck. At 31% success their opponents would have made 11.8 of their 38 3-point attempts instead of 9. So, Ohio randomly made 4.6 more 3-pointers than could be reasonably expected while their opponents made at least 2.8 fewer 3-pointers than they should have made. That’s 7.4 net 3-pointers on random good luck for Ohio, which translates into 20 points (every extra 3-pointer is 2.7 additional points instead of 3 points since some of the missed 3-pointers would be rebounded by the offense and converted into points) – or 10 points per game. Even with those random 10 points per game for Ohio, George Mason has still performed 0.4 points better this season based on point differentials and strength of schedule. But, instead of being favored by 4 ½ points at home based on this season’s performance, I would favor George Mason by 9 points based on my ratings and even more if I use this year’s game only while taking out random variance in the stats. George Mason has made 31.9% of their 3-pointers while allowed 32.5%, so there is no randomness in their good early season play, as the Patriots have 4 experienced starters and a talented group of young players coming off the bench. A better indication of how a team is playing is 2-point field goal percentage and Ohio has made just 44.6% of their 2-pointers while allowing a horrible 51.4% on shots inside the arc. George Mason, meanwhile, has made 52.4% of their 2-pointers while allowing 48.4% on 2-pointers and they’ve played a tougher schedule than Ohio has. George Mason will dominate this game inside the paint and should win comfortably as long as Ohio doesn’t continue to make over half of their 3-point shots, which is unlikely. In addition to the line value, George Mason applies to a solid 209-122-10 ATS home momentum situation and the Patriots are 56-33-3 ATS as a home favorite of 4 points or more under coach Jim Larranaga (41-19-2 ATS as a favorite from 4 points to 12 points). I’ll take George Mason in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -5 or less.
RAS
Idaho St 2 units
Mark Lawrence
Underdog GOY S. Car.
GOM Florida State
10* GOY on Nevada
JB Sports
KANSAS
WIZARDS
Prime Time Sports Advisors
NCAA Hoops
Miami Ohio +8 5 units
Paul Leiner
300* NBA Over 202 Orl/Ind
50* CFB Over 48 USC/Notre Dame
50* CBB Seton Hall -12.5
25*CFB Missouri -16
10* CFB Miami -1.5
Underdog
College Dog of the Year
Rice
STU FEINER
Baylor (71) at Texas Tech (-22)
Humiliated last week at Oklahoma, the Red Raiders of Texas Tech still have tons to play for and they will bounce back in style and post a huge number in covering this number against Baylor. Seventh-ranked Texas Tech can still claim a spot in the Big 12 title game with as win this afternoon and an Oklahoma loss later this evening at Oklahoma State. They know they have to take care of business first and they have much respect for this much-improved Baylor outfit. But the Bears will have their hands more than full with this Red Raider offense that is averaging 45.5 ppg and 551 ypg. Baylor has really struggled in the past against Mike Leach’s offenses as Texas Tech (which has won 12 straight over the Bears) has completed 70 percent of its passes for a 27-to-6 TD-INT ratio and averaged 470 passing yards the last six meetings. This game is in Lubbock and it’s Senior Day. At home this year, the Red Raiders are outscoring opponents by 25 ppg and out-gaining them by 232 ypg. On the road this year, Baylor is being outscored by 17 ppg and out-gained by 149 ypg. Baylor has the nation’s 84th ranked pass defense and is facing Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree and a Texas Tech offense that is ranked third overall in the country. With a chance to tie school records for single-season wins and conference victories, this will be a focused Red Raiders team today. Texas Tech has covered 14 of its last 18 home finales and is a series run of 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS the last 17 meetings. In winning 12 straight over Baylor, Texas Tech has won by an average margin of 30 ppg. Yes Baylor has gotten a lot out of freshman QB Robert Griffin this year, but this is a Texas Tech defense that had played well this year before getting steamrolled on the ground last week by the Sooners. Baylor will not be able to push around Texas Tech like OU did last week in Norman, and while Griffin will make some plays, he and the Bears won’t be able to keep pace. The Red Raiders were embarrassed on national TV last week, but the team is 21-10 ATS off a scoreboard loss and they have everything in the world to play for this afternoon. Leach will have them ready and the Red Raiders will score early and often in winning this game by four touchdowns or more.
TEXAS TECH (-22) 75 Dimes
Tulane (51) at Memphis (-14)
Memphis is as healthy as its been in a long, long time. Tulane is battered and bruised on both sides of the football. The Tigers need this win to become bowl eligible. Tulane, losers of seven straight, just wants this nightmare season to end. And it will today at the Liberty Bowl as Memphis dominates the Green Wave and wins this by at least three touchdowns. Memphis is on a 10-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS runs in this series and have won the last four by an average score of 38-19. Last week, despite out-gaining Central Florida by a 305-194 margin (allowed just 42 yards in the second half), the Tigers blew a chance to become bowl eligible as they allowed a fumble returned for a score and had a blocked punt to set up another as they fell 28-21. That game was QB Arkelon Hall’s first back after a month off due to a thumb injury. He was rusty, but he’ll be much better today against a woeful Tulane defense that gave up 56 points last week to Tulsa, but more importantly 593 yards including a whopping 489 rushing yards! Not only is Hall healthy again, but so is RB Curtis Steele and his backup Charlie Jones. Steele battled illness and a stout Central Florida run defense last week, but he should run and run and run (Tigers average 190 yrg) against this porous Green Wave that ranks second-to-last in C-USA in run defense and is ranked 103rd in the nation in scoring defense. Tulane is last in the country in tackles for losses (Memphis had 11 tackles for loss in last week’s game alone). This Tulane defense has allowed at least 500 yards in three straight games. Offensively, they’re ranked 112th in the country in scoring and have lost star RB Andre Anderson, another RB in Albert Williams and top WR Jeremy Williams to season-ending injuries. The three had accounted for 15 of the team’s 22 touchdowns. The Memphis defense, ranked third in the conference against the pass, has gotten back DT Clinton McDonald from injury and the Tigers will be able to stuff this weak Tulane offense. Twenty of the Tigers’ 25 seniors are in the two-deep depth chart (two more would be if not for injury) and on Senior Day and with an opportunity to become bowl eligible, the Tigers will roll big time over a Tulane squad (losers of five straight by double digits) that is riddled with injury and has all but quit. Memphis big time.
MEMPHIS (-14) 75 Dimes
Brian King
80 DIME Saturday College Football Trifecta (BK1)
Houston (78') at Rice (+3)
I feel Houston is not getting enough credit today after their poor showing last week in which they had to come back late to get the win and keep their hopes of winning the Conference USA West alive. Now in a position to clinch the West title you can expect a different Cougar team to show up today.
Even though Houston let UTEP stay in that game they still outgained them 700-462 and Houston is now averaging 678 ypg and 51 ppg over the last 3 games. I am hearing all about Rice QB Clement and he is talented and the all time Conference USA TD leader. He averages over 300 ypg and has a 36:7 ratio. But look at Keenum. Keenum is averaging 389 ypg with a 69% completion percentage and a 38:9 ratio while leading the number two passing offense in the country.
Houston is just 1-4 ATS on the road going to face a Rice squad that has won 5 in a row (4-1 ATS). These schools are just 5 miles apart however so Rice's home field advantage is minimized with what is expected to be a strong Houston showing. Houston has won three straight in this series (1-2 ATS) but they were laying big numbers the last 3 years. This year heading into this game Rice's strong last 5 and Houston's poor showing last week when favored by 17 have gotten us tremendous value with this low line.
I know Clement is playing his last game in front of the home crowd but this game is just too big for Keenum and Houston. Last Keenum and company torched the Rice "D" for 21 unanswered points and a shocking come from behind win. Houston amassed 748 yards of offense in that game and they have only improved. Houston's defensive leaks won't be enough to keep Rice in this game. Houston got caught looking ahead last week. They are ready today. Houston comes in with a clear statistical advantage. Take Houston minus the small number to win easily today at Rice.
HOUSTON (-3) 20 Dimes
Oregon (58) at Oregon State (-3)
OREGON (+3) 20 Dimes
John Ryan
North Carolina at Duke
Prediction: Duke
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Duke - AiS shows an 80% probability that Duke will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. AiS shows a 90% probability that Duke will not gain more than 250 net passing yards. Note that UNC is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 52-22 ATS for 70% since 1992, Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points poor rushing team gaining 100-140 RY/game against a team with an average rushing defense allowing 140-190 RY/game and after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
Florida at Florida St
Prediction: Florida St
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Florida State - AiS shows an 82% probability that FSU will lose this game by 16 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 32-8 ATS for 80% since 1997. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a good rushing D allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game and after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. Here is a second and very simple system that has gone 29-6 ATS for 83% Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a road win. Fine tuning this system to include only Saturday games produces 90% ATS winning percentage. FSU is also a strong 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of > 75% since 1992. Bowden is a solid 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games versus good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since being the HC of FSU, whihc is a long, very long, time. Take FSU.
Southern Miss at SMU
Prediction: SMU
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on SMU - AiS shows an 82% probability that SMU will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 42-11 ATA for 79% since 2002. Play against road favorites team with a turnover differential of +0.75/game or better facing a team with a differential of -0.75/game or worse, in conference games. Here is a second system that has gone 74-33 ATS for 69% since 2002. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points in conference games with an experienced QB returning as starter. SM has ripped off 3 straight wins and covered all three as well. Note, however, that SM is just 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. SMU HC JIm Jones is in a solid role noting that he is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off 2 straight losses against conference rivals in all games he has coached since 1992. Take SMU
Wildcat
10 * Alabama