Joe Gavazzi (PPP)
CAT OF THE WEEK
ARIZONA (-11) over Arizona State (11:30 pm ESPN)
BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh (+3) over CONNETICUT
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP
GORILLA OF THE WEEK
Oklahoma (-16) over Missouri
IndianCowboy
Navy Midshipmen @ Army Black Knights
3 units (Normal) TOTAL: Under 44.5
East Carolina Pirates @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane
3 units (Normal) TOTAL: Over 65.5
South Florida @ West Virginia Mountaineers
3 units (Normal) TOTAL: Under 47.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Florida International
3 units (Normal) ATS: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +8
USC Trojans @ UCLA Bruins
3 units (Normal) ATS: UCLA Bruins +32.5
Rainman
5* Arizona
5* Oklahoma
3* Florida
3* W Virginia
1* Navy
Chris Jordan
ACC Game of the Year
2,000♦ BOSTON COLLEGE
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Missouri
PickLogic
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings
OVER the "total" of 210.5
VictoriousPlay
Pittsburgh @ Connecticut
VictoriousPlay: Over 45.5
Cincinnati @ Hawaii
VictoriousPlay: Over 48.5
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider (Army/Navy)
Navy
10* Conf Champ GOY (12-5 Nov run)
Tulsa
9* Sun Belt Conf (12-5 Nov run)
Troy
Superstar Triple Play
Revenge Game of the Month 15* West Va.
Underdog Shocker 15* Hawaii.
SEC Championship Game Showdown 15* Alabama.
7* Daytime Dominator: 68.8% run
Georgia Tech
7* Rivalry Rout-CBB (68.8% run)
BYU Cougars
Kelso
Conference Championship Game Of Year
100 Units Alabama (+10) over Florida
The fact undefeated Alabama (12-0) is a 10-point underdog in this game is one its face simply ridiculous. A team does not go 12-0 playing in the Southeastern Conference and that record is proof absolute that the Crimson Tide are an outstanding football game. Alabama runs a very disciplined offense that simply gets it done—and it has a lock-down defense that gives up an average of 11.5 points and 248.5 yards per game. Alabama opened the season as a 4 ½-point underdog with a 34-10 win over Clemson—a game played on the same field on which these teams will compete today. This is a team that has won at Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU—an almost impossible feat—and then closed out the season with a 36-0 home win over Auburn. It is against this background that I will tell you something few people really know about Alabama coach Nick Saban—he has one of the greatest defensive minds in the history of college football. He has defined to art form the ability to teach his defensive backs to jam wide receivers at the line of scrimmage and you can take it to the bank this ability will severely compromise the Florida (11-1) passing game. Please do not take these observations as a knock of the Gators, because it is not meant to be that. Florida is an outstanding football team, with only a one-point, 31-30, home loss to Mississippi to mar its record. But if Alabama does on defense what I think it is going to do, this one is going right to the money and in the end I believe the Crimson Tide will win it straight up.
Jeff Benton
75 Dime GOY
Florida
Ron Raymond
CFB O/U BEST BET PICK! (75% SYSTEM INCLUDED)
East Carolina / Tulsa Under 65
5* Missouri /Oklahoma Under 78.5
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME GEORGIA DOME - ATLANTA, GA
5 STAR SELECTION
Alabama +10 over Florida
The SEC showdown that college football fans have anticipated for weeks finally takes place at the Georgia Dome on Saturday afternoon, as the #1 Crimson Tide take on the 2nd-ranked Gators for the Conference Championship and in all probability a trip to the national title game.
Alabama is 12-0 for the third time in school history, and the team is fresh off a 36-0 thrashing of rival Auburn in the annual Iron Bowl. That shutout was the first by the Tide over the Tigers since 1992, and the 36-point margin of victory was the Iron Bowl's largest since 'Bama beat Auburn in 1962 by a 38-0 final. Nick Saban needed only two years to restore the program to national powerhouse status, and he hopes to win a second national title, a feat that he accomplished for the first time as the leader of the LSU program in 2003.
Florida is just two years removed from a national title of their own, and Urban Meyer has built a great program in Gainesville. The Gators are 11-1 overall and have posted eight consecutive victories by 28 or more points since suffering their lone loss to Ole Miss back in late September. Last weekend, the team cruised past Florida State in a 45-15 final in Tallahassee.
It is true that Alabama isn't nearly as explosive offensively as Florida or some of the other top teams in the nation. The Crimson Tide are averaging an unspectacular 371 total ypg, but they are scoring just over 32 ppg and possess a tremendous ground attack. To be specific, Alabama is generating better than 200 rushing ypg on an average of nearly 5 yards per attempt. Glenn Coffee has been tremendous, racking up 1,235 yards and nine scores while averaging 6.2 ypc. While quarterback John Parker Wilson isn't asked to carry the offense with his arm, the veteran is more than capable of making plays. He has completed 59% of his passes for nearly 2000 yards and nine touchdowns against only five interceptions. He doesn't make many mistakes with the football, knowing that an outstanding running attack coupled with strong defense and special teams are the ingredients to success.
Opponents are scoring less than 12 ppg against Alabama, which is holding foes to under 250 total yards. The Crimson Tide have been nearly impossible to run against with any measure of success, as they are yielding a miniscule 73.6 rushing ypg on 2.7 ypc. The defensive unit has 23 sacks to its credit to go along with the team's total of 24 takeaways. Also worthy of mention is the fact that opponents are only making good on 25 percent of their third-down conversion attempts against Alabama. It is hard to imagine the defense playing any better than it did in the shutout victory over Auburn. Alabama allowed only 170 total yards, including 57 rushing yards on 30 attempts. The Tigers were able to complete just 9-of-23 passes and lost three fumbles to Alabama.
We’ll get to see just how good the Gator offense really is, as the unit will collide with the best defense it’s seen all season this weekend. Florida is racking up 46 ppg thanks to a balanced offense that averages over 200 yards both rushing and receiving. The ground attack accounts for 6.2 yards per rush attempt, while the passing game is generating 14.2 yards per completion.
At the helm of the Gator offense is Tim Tebow, who won the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore last season. Tebow's numbers aren't as gaudy as they were a year ago, but the versatile signal caller has still completed 65 percent of his passes for over 2,200 yards and 25 touchdowns against only two interceptions. As a runner, he has scored 12 more touchdowns.
The most exciting player for the Gator offense is the versatile Percy Harvin, who has 538 yards and nine touchdowns as a runner and 35 catches for 595 yards and seven scores as a receiver. Keep an eye on freshmen Jeffery Demps and Chris Rainey, a pair of explosive tailbacks who have combined for nearly 1,200 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, especially since Harvin is hurt once again and may not be at full speed here.
The Florida defensive unit has been great as well. The Gators are yielding only 12 ppg and 275 total ypg thanks to tremendous speed at nearly every position. They are limiting opponents to just over 100 rushing ypg on 3.3 ypc, and they have intercepted 23 passes to date.
So, it’s a juggernaut team from the Sunshine State awaits, along with a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and powerhouse offense in a matchup of the top two teams in the AP poll. Few outside the state of Alabama give much chance to a Crimson Tide team built on stingy defense, a sturdy running game and an efficient but unspectacular veteran quarterback. We’ve seen this before. Longtime fans of the top-ranked Tide remember the Sugar Bowl at the end of the 1992 season against Heisman winner Gino Torreta and #1 Miami. That New Year's Day game nearly 16 years ago was every bit the mismatch it was projected to be. Only it was the second-ranked Tide that dominated with -- what else? -- defense and the ground game.
'Bama's Jay Barker passed for a mere 18 yards but Torreta was harried into three interceptions and the Hurricanes managed just 46 yards rushing against a defense that would have four starters selected in the first round of the NFL draft over the next two years.
Instead of John Copeland, Eric Curry, Antonio Langham and George Teague, the Tide now has Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, Rashad Johnson and Kareem Jackson.
The small but big play-packing return man is Javier Arenas, not David Palmer.
Gene Stallings, coach of that '92 team, sees four significant similarities between the two Tide teams.
"Alabama's quarterback doesn't give the ball away," Stallings said. "Jay Barker didn't either. Both teams have extremely good running games and both teams are excellent defensive football teams.
"David Palmer was an excellent punt return man and I think Alabama's got an excellent punt return man."
In matchups with this team from the Sunshine State, Alabama has held its ground, as they are 5-0-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings with Florida. The Tide also have flourished in these spots, going 8-0 ATS (+11.6 ppg) since at least 1980 as a neutral site underdog vs. opponents off 2+ SU wins, and 13-0-2 ATS (+11.2 ppg) as an underdog of 2+ points vs. .900+ opponents with more than 2 games played.
We expect Alabama to try to keep the Florida offense off the field by controlling time of possession, as the Tide had 15 scoring drives of over five minutes, most in the SEC.
In these types of games we like to play ON a team with the superior defense, especially if a team’s defensive strength neutralizes the opponent’s offensive strength. This could cause them to go with plays they are not well suited for. The Gators pass well, but their running game is what sets it all up and Alabama has been very stout against the run as the numbers show. This also allows us to play ON an underdog that is allowing less than 3 yards per rush on the season from October on.
Undefeated neutral site underdogs have also done well under the conditions outlined in an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM, which states:
Play ON an undefeated neutral site underdog not off 3 ATS losses vs. an opponent not off a road SU loss & ATS win.
Since 1981, these teams are 10-0 ATS (+14.3 ppg), including Texas beating then #1 Oklahoma earlier this season.
An even stronger POWER SYSTEM shows that in meetings of the AP’s #1 vs. #2, the underdogs have done phenomenally well. It reads simply:
Play ON an AP #1/#2 underdog of more than 1 point vs. an AP #1/#2 opponent with less than 36 days rest.
These “top dogs” are 13-0-1 ATS (+13.6 ppg) since at least 1980 which is as far back as the SportsDataBase goes, so they may be even better than that.
The Gators will not to totally healthy, as they will be without two defensive linemen against top-ranked Alabama in the Southeastern Conference title game. Defensive tackle Brandon Antwine tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee Saturday at Florida State and will have season-ending surgery, coach Urban Meyer said Tuesday. Antwine missed the first five games of the season while recovering from a back injury that required surgery and threatened his playing career. He was in the starting lineup against the Seminoles and probably would have seen significant playing time in the title game because fellow defensive lineman Matt Patchan will miss the game because of a knee injury. That’s in addition to Percy Harvin not being at top speed.
While Florida is a terrific team, they have not faced a test like this for a long time, as they have not even played a team off 3 SU & ATS wins since 2002.
Also, under very simple conditions, teams off 5 blowout victories of at least 4 TDs have hit the wall when taking on conference foes. This is shown by another POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:
Play AGAINST a conference team off SU wins of 28+ points in its last 5 games and not a conference home favorite SU loss before that.
Since at least 1980, these teams are 0-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by an enormous 16.1 ppg!
Ultimately, this game figures to be a classic. Alabama’s offense will do better than most expect, while their defense should force some Gator mistakes and give the offense some short fields. Special teams could also be crucial and give the Tide an edge as well. The game is likely to be razor close and decided late, giving the double-digit underdog an easy spread win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (5*) FLORIDA 31 ALABAMA 30
5 STAR SELECTION
HAWAII +7½ over Cincinnati
Late Saturday night on the Islands, the Warriors will hit the field at Aloha Stadium against the 13th-ranked Bearcats.
Hawaii concluded their Western Athletic Conference slate with a win over Idaho, and then posted a 24-10 victory against Washington State to move to 7-5 on the campaign and get an invite to their own Hawaii Bowl.
As for Cincinnati, they took care of Syracuse last weekend in a 30-10 decision, marking the first time the program has gone undefeated at home since 2000. More importantly, the victory provided the Bearcats with the Big East Conference title, the program's first outright 1-A conference championship. As a result of finishing first in the Big East, Cincinnati earns an automatic bid to a BCS Bowl for the first time in school history.
Both teams got what they wanted last week, as the Bearcats got the Big East title and Hawaii goes bowling as well, but all signs point to one team being much more motivated than the other in this game.
"Well we finished what we started," said head coach Brian Kelly after his Bearcats defeated Syracuse. "We started this year with the goal to become the Big East Champions...It is a great day to be a Bearcat. We're excited for what we're able to do in a very short period of time."
Any time a team has finally achieved a goal that it has had its sights set on since the start of the season and they little or nothing to gain in the following game, a big drop-off can be expected. Cincinnati make a fantastic run through the Big East, including some big road wins at West Virginia and Louisville; however, they likely peaked with their home win over Pittsburgh. While they had little problem with the Orange last week, they probably should have won the game by at least a couple of more TDs than they did. Syracuse has fired their coach and was coming off an emotionally draining win at Notre Dame, so they had little in the way of resistance, yet the Bearcats could only manage a 20-point win at home and failed to cover the spread. A look at some numbers shows us that Cincy is 0-9 ATS (-11.9 ppg) off a SU win & ATS loss and not an underdog of 7+ points
Meanwhile, Hawaii appears to be peaking in the second half of the season as well. Greg Alexander had one of his best games under center for the squad last week, as he converted 19-of-34 passing for 315 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Warriors passing attack has taken a few steps backwards this season as it tried to find a serviceable replacement for Colt Brennan, yet it still produced 243 ypg to rank third in the conference. Since Greg Alexander became the main quarterback. They are 4-1 in those games. They have averaged 33.4 points per game during that stretch.
On defense, Hawaii held the Cougars to a mere 76 yards through the air and sacked the quarterbacks five times, and should keep the Bearcats passing attack under control here as well.
While the Warriors also clinched their bowl invite last week, they will have a chip on their shoulder here. The relish the role of home underdog, especially against BCS foes, and here they get one on its way to a BCS Bowl Game. After last year’s debacle in the Sugar Bowl, Hawaii will be looking to make a statement in this game.
Playing their final game of the regular season in games involving Hawaii, favorites with less than 7 days rest are 0-10 ATS (-12.9 ppg) since 1998.
The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (+13.6 ppg) as a non-conference underdog vs. an opponent with less than 12 days rest since 1998.
Despite these strong numbers, the money has been pouring in on the Bearcats, making this one of the more heavily wagered games of the weekend. No doubt, many are eager to get an “easy win” in the final college football game for a couple of weeks.
Our strategy is to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business. Here, we have nearly 80% of the wagers coming in on a Bearcats team that will likely be treating this game as little more than a vacation between its Big East title triumph and BCS Bowl Game. Our money will be on the underdog with a decided home field advantage to keep this game very close and possibly pull off the upset.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (5*) HAWAII 28 CINCINNATI 27
4 STAR SELECTION
East Carolina +12½ over TULSA
The Golden Hurricane host the Pirates in the 2008 Conference USA Championship Game early on Saturday.
With a narrow 38-35 victory at Marshall in its regular season finale last weekend and a Houston loss to Rice on the same day, Tulsa was able to win the West Division crown. The Hurricane actually earned a share of the title with Rice, but it owned the tie-breaker with a win over the Owls earlier in the season.
East Carolina had an easier time in the East Division, finishing 6-2 and clinching that title a few weeks ago. The Pirates made headlines with a pair of back-to-back upsets of Top 25 teams to open the season come roaring into this bout with wins in five of their last six games.
East Carolina has had a moderate amount of success on offense this season and they come into the game averaging a little over 23 ppg and 340 total ypg. Quarterback Pat Pinkney has had his up and downs this season, but overall he has done a good job managing the team. He has completed an efficient 64% of his tosses for over 2,200 yards, with 11 scores and seven interceptions.
On the defensive side of the ball is where ECU has excelled this season, holding its opponents to under 201 ppg and 330 total ypg. The unit has done a respectable job against both the run and pass and is allowing foes to convert just 34 percent of the time on third down. Creating big plays has also been a strength of this defense, which has forced 25 turnovers and recorded 27 sacks.
On display this weekend will be one of the top offenses in the nation, as Tulsa is averaging a healthy 49 ppg behind an impressive 579 total ypg. This electric attack has had success on the ground as well as through the air and has topped the 45-point mark eight times. Leading the way is quarterback David Johnson, who ranks among the top passers in the nation with 42 touchdowns. He has completed 66% of his attempts for more than 3,600 yards and has even added three more scores on the ground.
Tulsa, on defense, has shown a lot of vulnerability, partly because their offense usually puts them back on the field so quickly. Overall, the defense is allowing more than 29 total ypg and 400 total ypg.
Despite Tulsa’s offensive numbers, even at home, our Power Ratings indicate they are being over-valued by a few points here. In such cases, we like to play ON an underdog getting between a FG & TD of points in line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation and the favorite is not in a “get-up” situation. If the underdog has been fairly consistent with respect to its performances as compared to the Power Ratings, this will be a case of a team not getting the respect it deserves and being under-rated by the wagering public.
We also look to play ON a team with the superior defense, especially in playoff type games. East Carolina’s defense ranks #41 and #29 for total defense and scoring defense, while Tulsa’s defense ranks #94 and #83 respectively.
The Pirates have certainly been at their best when not getting a lot of respect, as they are 7-0 ATS (+7.9 ppg) on the road off a SU win of 7+ points and playing with revenge, 5-0 SU (+9 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+17.8 ppg) as an underdog of 3+ points since last year, 4-0 ATS the last 4 seasons as an underdog of more than 9 points with 7+ days rest, 9-0 ATS (+11.1 ppg) as an underdog of more than 3 points off an ATS win, and 12-0 ATS (+10.3 ppg) as an underdog off a SU win and ATS of 5+ points.
East Carolina is also active as a “PLAY ON” team for numerous NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS exclusive to Conference Championship Games, one of which shows how their crushing victory over UTEP to end the season sets them up nicely here. It states:
Play ON a Conference Championship team (not a favorite of 13+ points) with 6-13 days rest off a favorite ATS win of more than 15 points.
These teams are 5-1 SU (+11.7 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+17.3 ppg) ALL-TIME in a limited number of qualifying games.
Of course the wagering public is enamored with Tulsa’s high octane offense, and they have been phenomenal at home; however, Conference Championship Home Favorites of more than 10 points are 0-2 ATS (-10.8 ppg) all-time.
Additionally, despite finishing the regular season with a perfect home mark, teams hosting a Conference Championship Game have struggled. Specifically, Conference Championship home teams with 0 season home SU losses and coming off a SU win (not an ATS win of 7+ points) are 0-5 ATS (-10.8 ppg) ALL-TIME in a limited number of qualifying games.
A final statistic reveals that teams averaging better than 40 points at home on the season and hosting a Conference Championship Game are 0-2 ATS (-15.5 ppg) with less than 13 days rest vs. opponents not seeking revenge for a road underdog SU & ATS loss earlier in the season.
Despite the fact that the public is backing the Golden Hurricane here, the line has actually dropped slightly. This is a tip-off and will allow us to play ON a team that has the line or "juice" moving against it, despite more money being wagered on its opponent. The biggest sportsbooks sometimes don't move a line based upon the amount of money, but rather upon what they consider sharp money. This "reverse line move" reveals where the smart money is, even if its less overall than the square money. There's a reason it's called "smart" money. Here, the “smart money” is on the defensive-minded Pirates who have been giant killers recently with outright upsets of Boise State, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia going back to last year’s Hawaii Bowl. We’ll jump aboard as we like their chances to at least stay within a TD of the home team.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (4*) TULSA 35 EAST CAROLINA 28
4 STAR SELECTION
Arizona State +10½ over ARIZONA
A fight for the oldest rivalry game trophy in the nation takes place Saturday night in the desert, as the Wildcats host the Sun Devils to battle for the Territorial Championship Cup. This 82nd edition of the “Duel in the Desert” dates back to Thanksgiving Day in 1899.
This season the teams closely mirror each other fairly closely as far as their records are concerned, currently tied for fifth place in the Pac-10 with 4-4 marks. Arizona State still needs another win to become bowl eligible and have managed to weather a rough section of the schedule during which it lost six in a row. Since a 27-25 setback to Oregon State on the road the first of November, the team has run off three consecutive victories, including a 34-9 romp over UCLA last week.
As for Arizona, they started things with a bang this season by crushing Idaho at home, 70-0. The squad went on to win four of five to begin the campaign, but has since fallen in four of the last six outings, including two in a row. On November 22nd, Arizona came close but still fell short in a 19-17 decision versus 21st-ranked Oregon State at home.
Arizona State actually failed to score a single offensive touchdown last week against UCLA, yet still recorded the 25-point win in Tempe due to FOUR TDs by the defense. Rudy Carpenter was expected to have a huge season this year, but could not live up to his potential. This year he converted better than 62% of his pass attempts for 215 ypg with 15 TDs and 8 INTs. The senior signal-caller has thrown for at least 2,000 yards in four straight seasons.
The Sun Devils defense did most of the work versus the Bruins last Friday, as Travis Goethel, Troy Nolan, and Mike Nixon all returned interceptions for touchdowns and Paul Unga picked up a fumble and brought it back for a score.
The Wildcats Nicolas Grigsby and Keola Antolin have taken the ball and run with it every chance they've had; however, the performance of Willie Tuitama cannot be overlooked because he's averaged better than 225 ypg passing and has connected on nearly 65 percent of his attempts.
As is the case with Arizona State, the pass efficiency defense for the Wildcats is also one of the best in the nation, placing 19th this week. Sacks, however, appear to be a precious commodity in the desert because the team is averaging a mere 1.72 sacks per outing to rank eighth in the conference and 77th in the country this week. That will work in favor of the Sun Devils, as Carpenter should have a productive game if given time to throw.
Arizona State’s performance on defense last week was no fluke, as they have not allowed a touchdown in 10 quarters, and they should do well here in keeping the Sun Devils in the game.
Many are fading the visitors this week, noting that all of their TDs last week came on defense; however, this has been more than compensated for in the line, as our Power Ratings indicate that Arizona should only be favored by about 5 points in this contest, and certainly no more than 7 points.
We have a nice dichotomy of trends going here, as the Sun Devils are 7-0 ATS (+14.7 ppg) at Arizona and not favored by 2 TDs, while as a favorite, Arizona is 0-6 ATS (-12.9 ppg) since 1990.
This was supposed to be the breakout year for Arizona football. The Wildcats are going to their first bowl game in 10 years, but that still doesn't have everybody around Tucson jumping for joy in a season in which the Wildcats left some opportunities on the field. Arizona has struggled to a 6-5 record, but win or lose here, the Wildcats are guaranteed their first postseason trip since a 23-20 victory over Nebraska in the 1998 Holiday Bowl.
The Wildcats are looking for a trip to either the Sun, Las Vegas, Emerald or Hawaii bowls. A win would likely earn Arizona a short trip to Vegas against either TCU or BYU – certainly not a prize that will the team as motivated as the visitors who are just trying to make it to any bowl game.
Arizona might have been, or could have been, even better. The Wildcats have the NCAA's 112th-rated schedule strength, and their wins have come against teams with a combined mark of 18-49. In fact, the Wildcats have only one victory against a team with a winning record, a 42-27 victory over California, further evidence that they are being over-valued here by the oddsmakers.
Since getting the “W” that put them over the bowl eligibility hump, they have dropped their last 2 games, which is why we like to play AGAINST a team off a win to clinch a bowl berth, especially if they aren’t playing for a bigger goal.
With a bowl berth wrapped up, an unavoidable degree of complacency can set in, along with certain other negative influences, such as over-confidence and looking ahead to the bowl game, which is what we’ve seen from the Wildcats.
Finally, we note that Arizona is 0-7 ATS (-11.2 ppg) as a home favorite of more than 3 points off a SU loss since 2000, and 0-9 ATS (-12.3 ppg) at home from Game 11 on and not an underdog off 11+ points. While the Wildcats are quickly becoming the Mildcats, we expect the Sun Devils surge to continue here, as they pull off the upset to get a bowl invite.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (4*) ARIZONA STATE 31 ARIZONA 27
3 STAR SELECTION
TROY -11 over Arkansas State
The Sun Belt Conference's title and automatic bowl berth will be on the line Saturday when the Trojans host the Red Wolves. Arkansas State is off a lackluster 33-28 victory at North Texas this past Saturday to improve to 6-5. Meanwhile, Troy has won five of their last seven games, including a 48-3 thumping of Louisiana-Lafayette a couple of weeks ago.
The Red Wolves have relied heavily on their rushing attack throughout the season as the team is currently churning out more than 200 rushing ypg. Overall Arkansas State is producing more than 400 total ypg and 28 ppg. Quarterback Corey Leonard has rushed for 467 yards and has thrown for 2,175 yards and 16 scores against just six interceptions.
Defensively the Red Wolves have been just an average unit, holding teams to 336 total ypg, and 23 ppg.
The Trojans have one of the more balanced attacks in the conference, and head into this matchup with nearly 430 total ypg. Levi Brown has done well under center for the Trojans since taking over mid way through the season, throwing for just nearly 1,600 yards, and has 11 touchdowns against just three interceptions.
Not to be overlooked is the performance of the Troy defensive unit, which is limiting the opposition to less than 320 total ypg, and 22 ppg.
If Arkansas State had played just about any other team in the nation last week, they probably would have lost, but fortunately for them, they were able to pull out a win at North Texas. While the Red Wolves now have a winning record on the season, they continue struggling against the spread. We look for such teams, as we like to play AGAINST a team with a good SU record but a bad ATS record. Such teams are the most overvalued on the board. Due to their good SU mark, they will continue to get a lot of attention, and thus money, from the public, preserving the line value in playing against them.
Arkansas State does not do well against a team coming off a dominant win as the Trojans are. The Red Wolves are 0-5 SU (-28.8 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-22.6 ppg) vs. opponents off SU wins of more than 28 points and not getting 23+ points, and 0-8 SU (-25.1) 0-8 ATS (-19.1 ppg) vs. opponents off allowing less than 14 points since 2005.
After a late-season win as a road favorite to become bowl-eligible with a 6th victory on the year, teams have not had much left back on the road as an underdog of 2 TDs or less. We confirm this with an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 9 on, play AGAINST a 6-SU-win conference road underdog of 14 points or less off a road favorite SU win.
Under those simple conditions, teams have gone 0-13 SU (-14.7 ppg) & 0-12-1 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since the early 1980s, including 2-0 SU & ATS this season.
Also, in the last game of the season, road underdogs at the price described by another POWER SYSTEM have not come close to avenging a home shutout defeat. This one reads:
In its Final Game, play AGAINST a Saturday road underdog of 3½-33½ points seeking revenge for a home shutout SU loss and not off a conference SU loss of 7+ points.
Perfect since at least 1980, these teams are 0-10 SU (-30.4 ppg) & 0-10 ATS (-15.9 ppg). They may be even better than that; however, the SportsDataBase goes back to only 1980. This system was a winner last just 1 week ago when USC clobbered Notre Dame.
Meanwhile, this is Troy’s chance for redemption. A victory gives the Trojans the outright Sun Belt Conference title and a berth to the New Orleans Bowl. Troy was in the same situation last season, but it lost to Florida Atlantic in the season finale, and the Owls received the league's automatic bid to the New Orleans Bowl. The Trojans finished 8-4 and were left out of the bowl picture. We don’t expect them to let that happen again.
The Trojans' offense has improved every game this season because the running game has been very efficient. Despite losing starting quarterback Jamie Hampton to a knee injury week five, the passing game hasn't missed a beat with junior Levi Brown. The key to the group's success, however, has been a very experienced and dominant defensive line. Troy has allowed only nine sacks this season and should have their way with the Arkansas State defense.
While the Red Wolves strength is running the football, Troy is coming off a dominant defensive performance in the 48-3 win over Louisiana-Lafayette, which has the league's top rushing offense. Like the offense, it starts with a dominant defensive line that is good against the run and does a great job pressuring the quarterback. Troy's linebackers are the best in the conference and the secondary has made great strides.
Finally, this is a tough spot for any visitor, as Troy is 5-0 SU (+25.8 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+18.3 ppg) at home the past 2 seasons when not favored by 15+ points, including an easy 41-23 over a very good Oklahoma State team last year as a 10-point home underdog, and 6-0 SU (+16 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+15.3 ppg) at home and not favored by 15+ points vs. opponents off a SU win.
The Trojans should be too much for the Red Wolves, as the hosts are on a mission to finish strong and grab the league title.
PROJECTED FINAL SCOE: (3*) TROY 34 ARKANSAS STATE 17
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM, TAMPA, FL
3 STAR SELECTION
Boston College PICK ‘EM over Virginia Tech
An automatic bid to the Orange Bowl will be on the line early on Saturday at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, as the Eagles and the Hokies duke it out for the ACC title.
This game is a rematch of last season's league championship bout which was won by Virginia Tech, 30-16. Earlier this season, however, the Eagles beat the Hokies by a 28-23 final in front of the home crowd in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.
Boston College, currently ranked 18th in the country, is hungry for their first ever BCS bowl bid and won’t be short on confidence here. They won 11 games a year ago and have nine victories to their credit so far this season under the guidance of head coach Jeff Jagodzinski. They are currently riding a four-game win streak that includes a thrilling 28-21 triumph over Maryland last weekend to clinch their second straight ACC Atlantic Division crown.
Virginia Tech captured the ACC Coastal Division title with a 17-14 decision over Virginia last Saturday. Now, the Hokies are making their third appearance in the ACC title contest and will attempt to retain their conference crown.
Boston College is scoring a solid 27 ppg despite the fact that the offense is generating just 319 total ypg, pointing to the team’s offensive efficiency, not to mention some help from the defense. Last season, the Eagles were guided by quarterback Matt Ryan, who is now starring for the Atlanta Falcons of the NFL. With Ryan gone, senior Chris Crane took the majority of the snaps this season with modest results until he broke his collarbone two weeks ago and will miss the remainder of this season. His replacement, redshirt freshman Dominique Davis, threw a pair of touchdowns last weekend against Maryland in his first start. The ground attack is paced by Montel Harris, who has rushed for 798 yards and five touchdowns while averaging over 5 ypc.
Opponents are generating less than 18 ppg against a tough Boston College defense. The unit has been tremendous against the run, holding foes to 87.3 ypg and 2.9 ypc. The fact that the Eagles have 25 interceptions through 12 outings suggests that they have been equally strong against the pass. They also have 32 sacks to their credit, so the big-play ability of this defense is simply off the charts.
Virginia Tech has struggled to move the ball and score points this season. The team is averaging less than 22 ppg and just over 300 total ypg, low figures for a squad that has reached its conference title game. The Hokies have scored only 24 offensive touchdowns this season, 18 of which have come on the ground. Tech uses a couple of quarterbacks in Tyrod Taylor and Sean Glennon. Taylor has seen more snaps, and while he isn't quite as good a passer as Glennon, Taylor is much more capable of making plays in the running game. He has rushed for 661 yards and four scores, second only to the 998 yards and nine touchdowns of Darren Evans.
Tyrod Taylor doesn't have a great track record against Boston College. He had 64 total yards and lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown in last season's ACC title game, and he completed only 12 of 27 passes for 90 yards and an interception against the Eagles earlier this season.
The Hokies seem to play strong defense every year, and this season has been no different. They are also limiting opponents to just under 18 ppg and 275 total ypg. Foes are gaining a mere 112 rushing ypg and 3.3 ypc, although those numbers aren’t quite as good as those of BC’s defense.
The Eagles have finished the season in stronger fashion and against better competition, so they look to be in fairly good shape here. We like to play ON a team on a spread-covering streak IF there is an assignable cause for the streak AND there is still line value, which there is here.
That BC is playing a freshman quarterback starting only his second career game might seem like an advantage for the Hokies, but that might not be the case. Tech probably wouldn't have minded facing senior quarterback Chris Crane a second time. It harassed Crane in the first meeting, intercepting him three times and returning two of them for touchdowns.
The Eagles have had a non-offensive touchdown each of the last seven weeks, with eight scores in this seven games; something you would normally expect more from the Hokies defense.
With such a tight line here, it’s good pointspread territory for Boston College as they are 11-0 SU in their last 11 neutral site games when not an underdog of more than 3 points, and in neutral site games with a line between -4 & +3 they are 6-0 SU (+12.5 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+12 ppg). In fact, they are 10-0 SU (+9.4 ppg) & 10-0 ATS (+8.4 ppg) in all games away from home with a line between -3 & +2 vs. opponents not off a non-lined home SU win. Meanwhile, the Hokies are 0-5 SU (-8.6 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-9.6 ppg) in neutral site games with a line between -4 & +6 since 1995.
Teams rematched against a Conference Championship foe that they beat in a spread-covering home win during the season, have continued to dominate, as demonstrated by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that is exclusive to these title games. It states:
Play ON a Conference Championship/Bowl team (not an underdog of 5+ points) with less than 38 days rest vs. an opponent seeking revenge for a same-season road SU & ATS loss and not off a conference home underdog SU win.
Since 2000, these teams are a strong 7-0 SU (+19.6 ppg) & 7-0 ATS (+20.6 ppg). We also note that Conference Championship teams that won the last matchup but lost a Conference Championship Game in the meeting before that are 2-0 SU (+19.5 ppg) & 2-0 ATS (+16.8 ppg) ALL TIME.
Virginia Tech won enough games to get here, but it certainly was not done in an impressive fashion, as they struggled even against Duke and Virginia, 2 teams going nowhere, and finished poorly this year against the number.
We look to play AGAINST a team with a good SU record but a bad ATS record. Such teams are the most overvalued on the board. Due to their good SU mark, they will continue to get a lot of attention, and thus money, from the public, preserving the line value in playing against them.
Teams like Virginia Tech, coming off a lackluster home win against a team on a losing streak have carried over their poor play to the post-season under the conditions outlined. This is confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Conference Championship/Bowl Game team (not an underdog of more than 6 points) with less than 42 days rest off a home SU win & ATS loss against a foe off 3 SU losses.
Since 1995, these teams are 0-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. Ironically, last year BC qualified as a “PLAY AGAINST” team vs. Va Tech in the ACC title game. This season, it’s the Hokies coming off the unimpressive win making them the “PLAY AGAINST” team.
Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, they won’t be playing Duke or Virginia team this week. Although the Hokies defense should be able to keep this one close, a very determined and motivated Golden Eagles team should gut this one out and get to their first ever BCS bowl.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) BOSTON COLLEGE 20 VIRIGNIA TECH 17
HalfBets
10** Florida -10 GOY
7* Hawaii +7.5