rossbenjaminsports
Utah @ UNLV 10:00 PM ET 9/22/2007
Play On: UNLV +8.5
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Utah comes off a stunning 44-6 home win over UCLA. The final score is a bit deceiving considering the fact that Utah was the beneficiary of 5 UCLA turnovers and the total yardage in the game was virtually even. In spite of the 44 points last week this is not a very good offensive team. UNLV had been very competitive early on until being whacked at home by a very good Hawaii team. I look for the Rebels to bounce back with a strong effort and the Utes to suffer a bit of a let down after their upset win a week ago over a nationally ranked team. Laying more than a touchdown on the road is just a reaction by the books to adhere to public perception based on the results of both squads from last week. Take the home underdog UNLV Rebels.
Any conference away favorite of 17.0 or less that is off a home underdog SU win in which they scored 34 or more points, versus a foe playing with revenge, and has a win percentage of .125 or better is 1-13 ATS since 1980.
THE HERD (Colin Cowherd ESPN Radio):
Record 8-5
ARKANSAS
U C L A
PENN STATE
GEORGIA
Mike Neri
4* Nebraska
3* LSU
Brandon Lang
SATURDAY
25 DIME
COLORADO
10 DIME
Washington
Memphis
5 DIME
Army
Colorado St
Navy
Maryland
Free Pick - Purdue - (For analysis see Daily video)
Dave Price
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Selection ID Matchup Selection Odds Result
7808186 Illinois vs. Indiana Illinois -2.5 / -110.0 NA
Reason:4* Illinois -2.5
Indiana is 0-7 ATS after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game since 1992, 8-20 ATS in home games after playing a game at home since 1992, and 5-17 ATS after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Indiana is also 15-31 against the number as a home dog the last 15 seasons. We knew that the Illini were the better team heading in and we still feel that way after 3 weeks of the season. Take Illinois.
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Selection ID Matchup Selection Odds Result
7808184 Baylor vs. Buffalo Buffalo 3.5 / -105.0 NA
Reason:7* Buffalo +3.5
This play goes on Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, with 17 or more total starters returning, in the first month of the season. This system is 35-13 the last 15 years. Baylor is 0-6 ATS after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons. Pound the Bulls.
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Selection ID Matchup Selection Odds Result
7808187 SMU vs. TCU SMU 21.0 / -104.0 NA
Reason:4* SMU +21
The underdog role has treated SMU well. SMU has won 6 straight games over the last 3 seasons as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points. A terrible loss at Air Force leads us to believe that the books are giving TCU to much value this week. Take the points as this one stays within 2 TDs.
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Selection ID Matchup Selection Odds Result
7808185 Oregon vs. Stanford Stanford 17.0 / -107.0 NA
Reason:5* Stanford +17
This play goes against a road team (OREGON) who is an excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games. This system is 27-6 the last 5 seasons. That’s an 81.8% win rate. Take the points.
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Selection ID Matchup Selection Odds Result
7808188 Utah vs. UNLV UNLV 9.0 / -110.0 NA
Reason:3* UNLV +9
Utah is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons. After playing a phenomenal game against UCLA, the Utes are in a primetime letdown spot. Playing the favorite has not been a winning role ATS for Utah. We’ll take the points with UNLV being jacked to take on Utah at home.
Selective
Saturday September 22, 2007
MichiganSt/NotreDame Over 43 for 5 units
OregonSt/ArizonaSt Over 54 for 4 units
Ball St/Neb under 61.5 4 units
Wild Bill
He likes alot of action
Arkansas -6 1/2 (5 units)
UCLA -5 1/2 (5 units)
Penn St -2 (5 units)
Georgia +3 1/2 (2 units)
Indiana +3 (4 units)
Over 53 Buffalo-Baylor (3 units)
Akron +3 (1 unit)
Nebraska -22 1/2 (1 unit)
Florida -21 (1 unit)
Over 42 1/2 Mich St-Notre Dame (2 units)
Cal -16 (3 units)
Bowling Green -21 (1 unit)
Toledo +4 (2 units)
South Florida -13 (2 units)
NC State +7 (2 units)
Connecticut +9 1/2 (1 unit)
Washington State +24 1/2 (3 units)
South Carolina ML +670 (1 unit)
South Carolina +16 1/2 (3 units)
TCU -21 (1 unit)
Arizona State -12 (1 unit)
Over 54 Fla Int'l-Kansas (2 units)
UL-Lafayette +10 1/2 (2 units)
North Texas +6 1/2 (2 units)
5 unit..........................2-3, -6.5 units
4 unit..........................3-0, +12.0 units
3 unit..........................2-2, -0.6 units
2 unit..........................6-5-1, +1.0 units
1 unit..........................24-20, +2.0 units
Parlay........................
Money Line...............
WON 37 LOSS 30, +7.9 units as of 9/18/07
Scott Spreitzer - Arizona State and Byu as BEST BETS.
Gary Greene - Purdue Over, Arkansas Over, Ohio State, UNLV.
Dave M@linsky
5* Tennessee -18 over Arkansas St
5* Army +29 over Boston College
4* Florida -21 over Mississippi
4* Iowa/Wisconsin Under 44
4* Georgia / Alabama under 48 1/2
4* Illinois / Indiana Under 63
Cappersaccess
(Sat) CFB Georgia Tech Virginia 3- Georgia Tech
(Sat) CFB Michigan St Notre Dame 11- Notre Dame
(Sat) CFB Houston U. Colorado St 7 Colorado St
(Sat) CFB Purdue Minnesota 13- Minnesota
__________________
Chad Jordan
THREE MILLION DOLLAR WINNERS
INDIANA+2.5
MICHIGAN STATE -10
TWO MILLION DOLLAR WINNERS
SO. FLORIDA -12.5
UCONN+9
MILLION DOLLAR WINNER
FLORIDA -23
ATS Lock Club
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7 units on Kent (-2) over Akron, 12:00
7 units on Buffalo (+3) over Baylor, 6:00
6 units on Connecticut (+9) over Pittsburgh, 7:00
6 units on Wake Forest (-3 1/2) over Maryland, 3:30
5 units on BYU (-11 1/2) over Air Force, 3:00
5 units on Notre Dame (+10 1/2) over Michigan State, 3:30
Scott Spreitzer
First CFB Conf. GAME OF THE YEAR!
Mountain West GOY
BYU
Scott Spreitzer
First CFB Conf. GAME OF THE YEAR! *9-1, 90% in Sept!
My Mountain West GOY is a play on BYU. Wow, did Air Force pull one out of the hat in their win over TCU. That win has given us additional value in this one, both in the line and in keeping BYU on their toes. AFA is now 2-0 in Mountwain West action, which will no doubt keep the Cougars focused in their conference opener. BYU is piling up the yardage on offense, but unfortunately, piled up penalty yardage in their two losses to UCLA & Tulsa. In fact, the Cougars were whistled for 14 fouls for 138 yards last week alone. But BYU is back in front of the home folks and I expect a defensive performance much like the one turned in against Arizona. AFA's offense is once again one dimensional. Against Utah and TCU, the Falcons threw the ball just 42 times and own a mediocre, 5.9 yards per pass average with no TDs and one INT. BYU, much like last year when they won 33-14, will load up against the run and shut down the anemic attack. Last year, they held AFA to 39 yards passing in the blowout win. In fact, the final AFA TD came in garbage time. Offensively, I expect the Cougars to roll. BYU will not only wear down this defense, but will light them up through the air. QB Max Hall is completing 61% of his passes for 405 PYPG at 8.2 yards per attempt. He owns an 8-3, TD-INT ratio. No less than four BYU receivers have 15 receptions already this season. All four average 67 receiving yards or more per game, and they're all averaging OVER 13.4 yards per grab! Keeping the AFA defense honest will be the power and speed, one-two punch of Cougar RBs Harvey Unga and Fui Vakapuna. They'll run behind a mammoth offensive line that outweighs the Air Force D-line by 66-lbs. per man! As you can see, we're talking about a huge step up in competition for the Falcons as far as the Cougar offense is concerned, while BYU takes a step down following last week's roadie. BYU has won the last three in this series, scoring an average of 45.3 PPG. And, in the last 20 meetings, the SU winner is a fantastic, 19-1 ATS! This is an absolute MISMATCH on paper and I firmly believe it'll come to fruition on the field.
Mountain West GOY
BYU
Ats Lock Club
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4 units on the Cleveland Indians (-135) over the Oakland A's, 7:00
4 units on the Colorado Rockies (+125) over the San Diego Padres, 10:00