Larry Ness
CFB Superstar Triple Play --Indiania
15* TV Game of the Week-MLB--LA Angels
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Stiffy sports
50 dime- kentucky
30 dime- fla atl
20 dime- mich st
10 dime nebraska
10 dime miami ohio
Professor Wins...
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Week 3 College Football Angle-of-the-Week
Angle was 1-1 last week winning easily with Boise St, but losing with Vanderbilt.
Saturday, Sept 15:
Home dogs that are off a bye are 104-54-3 ATS since 1980 if they are off a win prior that bye, and their opponent today scored at least 29 pts in their last game. Note that these home dogs are 81-35-1 ATS if their opponent is not off a bye since scoring that 29+ pts last game (opponent must have 7 or less days of rest).
PLAYS ON:
TULSA over BYU
CENTRAL FLORIDA over Texas
And,
Central Florida qualifies in the 81-35-1 ATS subset as Texas scored a bunch last week, and is not rested.
Best to all,
Rick
ProfessorWins
Ras
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West Virginia at Maryland (+16.5) - 4:45pm Pacific - Game #101-102 - Thursday
After disappointing seasons in 2004 & 2005, Maryland is back on the upswing. Head coach Ralph Friedgen took over play calling duties last year and led the team to a 9-4 record including an impressive win over Purdue in the Champs Sports Bowl. The team was ranked as high as #21 before two turnover ridden losses to end the regular season. Friedgen is calling plays again this year and for the first time in three years the team has had the benefit of extra bowl practice time. New starting QB Jordan Steffy has completed 75.5% of his passes through first two games. He is surrounded by experience at all skill positions and the offensive line is finally healthy. WR Darius Heyward-Bey is one of the top receivers in the ACC. The Maryland defense is under the second year of new coordinator Chris Cosh and is said to be much faster and more advanced this year. They have been solid early on holding two lesser opponents to 175 total yards per game. Last year West Virginia had a huge emotional edge when these two teams met in Morgantown. WVU star RB Slaton actually had his scholarship offer revoked by Maryland and it was his first start against them. WVU was sky high for the game and rushed for over 300 yards embarrassing the Terps on national TV. They did benefit from five Maryland turnovers and still only won by 21. This year Maryland is the home team with a chip on their shoulder and clearly has the emotional edge in their favor.
While Maryland was coasting to an easy win at FIU last Saturday, West Virginia was knee deep in an instate rivalry game. It was their first trip to Marshall since 1915 and they actually trailed at half-time and well into the 3rd quarter. It was still only a four point game with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter and Marshall had a nice drive going but a holding call and sack forced a punt. West Virginia then put the afterburners on for a misleading 25 point win. The game was very physical and played in intense heat which could leave the Mountaineers a bit sapped with an already short week to prepare plus travel to begin with. Not much can be taken away from the West Virginia offense, but they did lose last year's #1 receiver Brandon Myles to graduation and did not complete many vertical passes last week vs Marshall which led to a sputtering offense in the first half. Athletic KR/WR Nate Sowers was expected to make an impact but has been slowed by a hamstring injury and is expected to miss Thursday. On defense injuries and suspensions have slowed the anticipated improvement in pass defense that was a weakness (109th in the country) last season. They have already allowed 511 yards through the air in first two games. Top DT Keilen Dykes, (1st team Big East last year) a key to the run defense has been limited by a sprained foot this week and is likely to be less than 100%. If West Virginia plays anything less than a "B-" game here, they may be in danger of losing outright. Take the live dog.
RAS Official Play: Maryland +16.5 1 UNIT
BYU at Tulsa (Over 48) - 6:00pm Pacific - Game #179-180
New offensive coordinator Gus Malzhan has installed an uptempo no-huddle spread offense at Tulsa. Unlike last year at Arkansas, Malzhan has full support from his head coach and it will not be long before the scoreboards get lit up. The offense is designed to score quickly and get in as many plays as possible. Coaches will even go as far as to lobby officials to get the ball spotted and ready for play quickly after each down. It does not hurt that Tulsa returns an all conference three year starter in senior QB Paul Smith to run the show. The Golden Hurricane ran 86 plays (2005 NCAA average was 70.6) in their season opener, racking up 35 points and 523 total yards while playing conservatively with a big lead late. This is despite only four returning starters on offense and playing their first ever game in the new system. They since have had a BYE week to fine tune things and should be ready to roll this week in home opening revenge situation vs BYU. The Tulsa defense lost four of their top five tacklers from last season and were scorched for 49 points by the BYU offense last year. Fortunately for them, they faced a one dimensional offense vs UL Monroe in season opener but will face a much more difficult task vs BYU's balanced offense this week.
Everyone expected a significant dropoff in BYU's offensive production this year with the loss of QB John Beck, top four receivers, and top RB, but the offense has looked solid so far despite facing what could be two top 25 defenses in Arizona and UCLA. New QB Max Hall is getting rave reviews for his play and has already passed for 679 yards and 4 touchdowns in first two games. BYU is averaging 415 yards of total offense, but only 18.5ppg due to turnovers, penalties, and other bad breaks stalling drives in or near the red zone. They are likely to breakout here against a much weaker defense than what they have seen thus far. BYU lost a starting defensive lineman and starting safety to season ending injuries in fall camp as well as a reseve safety who was scheduled to move into a starting role. So far the defense has performed well above expectations but they have had some favorable circumstances. Arizona was playing their first game in a new offensive system on the road, and UCLA played very conservatively after jumping out to a 20-0 lead. Last year's meeting between these two saw 73 points scored. With Tulsa's uptempo style both teams will get even more opportunities this year, so even if these two good QB's do not match last years offensive efficiency, the scoring should still easily get into the fifties. Play the over.
RAS Official Play: Over 48 2 UNITS
UTEP (+6) at New Mexico State - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #175-176
The Miners went 16-6 in 2004 & 2005 but are somewhat under the radar this year after an underacheiving 5-7 season in 2006. Redshirt freshman QB Trever Vittatoe, the biggest question mark on this year's squad, is coming along nicely. He has gone up against two difficult defenses in his first two starts, vs New Mexico and at Texas Tech. His numbers have not been spectacular, but has not made any mistakes (0 interceptions), and showed marked improvement from game one to game two. Against NMSU he will face by far the easiest defense he has seen to date. Vittatoe is surrounded by a top notch group of receivers that boasts two Florida State transfers in Lorne Sam and Fred Rouse, along with mainstay senior Joe West. Two Pac-10 transfers man the tailback position, most notably hard running senior Marcus Thomas who sat out the season opener due to a one game suspension. The offensive line is much improved as evidenced by the 215 yards gained (4.7ypc) on the ground vs Texas Tech last week. Last year the team's season high was 135 vs Tulane and they averaged 2.4ypc for the season. UTEP was actually tied with Texas Tech going into the 4th quarter as a +25 point underdog and are now 2-0 ATS. Before the season head coach Mike Price said he was not concerned about his defense despite its inexperience. So far they have already performed above expectations. They held New Mexico to just 6 points in the season opener leading to an outright win and kept Texas Tech's high powered offense under wraps for three quarters. The return of defensive leader LB Jeremy Jones from injury last year (13 tackles in season opener vs New Mexico) has been a major positive.
New Mexico State is playing the favorite role for just the fourth time since Hal Mumme's arrival in 2005. The Aggies are just 2-21 vs Division 1-A opponents under Mumme. While some improvement is expected this year this team has no business being a significant favorite against a quality opponent. The Aggies are coming off a 10 point loss to instate rival New Mexico, the same team who lost to UTEP in week one. Aggie QB Chase Holbrook is off to a slow start having already thrown five interceptions this year (9 all of last year). In opening game the offense was able to put up just 28 points (defense added another score) vs 1-AA SE Louisiana who only returned three defensive starters. Defensively, NMSU has been awful for years and are replacing four of their top six tacklers from last year. They gave up 44 points and 496 yards to a New Mexico offense that was inept in week 1 vs UTEP. Last year NMSU allowed 34.1ppg vs 1-A opponents. Las Cruces is only a 40 minute drive from El Paso. If past years are any indication close to half of the fans in attendance will be supporting the road team making the home field advantage very minor. There is a good chance the wrong team is favored all together here. Take the points.
RAS Official Play: UTEP +6 1 UNIT
Dave Malinsky
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Our first college 6* of the season puts that 180-104-4 on our Top Rated games into action.
Army at Wake Forest Sep 15 2007 3:30PM
PICK: Army
Your pick will be graded at: 19.5 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: 6* Top of the Ticket - Side
REASON FOR PICK: 6* ARMY over WAKE FOREST
In our continuing works on handicapping theory there are significant edges to be found when we can define the roles of being the “Hunted” and the “Hunter”, and there has never been a better example in any sport than Jim Grobe’s tenure as the head coach at Wake Forest. As such we have the setting for something special here.
No one does a better job of game-planning than Grobe, who has been able to maximize the marginal talent available to compete week-in and week-out against teams with better personnel. The trip by the Deacons to a BCS bowl LY will go down as one of the 10 best individual coaching seasons ever, with Wake winning five different games despite trailing in first downs and total offense. It tells us much about Grobe’s ability to find whatever strengths his team has, and whatever weaknesses the opponents have, and come up with a couple of big plays that can swing the outcome. At the same time, it tells us that if the likes of Duke and Connecticut beat you by a combined 21 first downs and 190 yards, your stockpile of talent is indeed thin.
So what happens when this limited program goes from being the rabid underdog that is looking to pull a surprise against a favorite that might not take them seriously, and is instead favored against a lesser opponent? First, Grobe manages the game the best way he knows how. Without a lot of depth he must spare the roster when he can, to save the better players for bigger games ahead. Second, if he can win without his tricks he will not use many, so that future opponents do not see them. Third, if it is a non-conference affair each of the first two rules here become magnified. And that is what leads to the bottom line for the Deacon coach in this category.
Since taking over the program his team has been favored by -14 or more six times, and not only took an 0-6 ATS collar, but lost to the spread by a combined 66.5 points in those games. And in the nine settings in which they have been favored by any price vs. a non-conference opponent it is an 0-8-1 ATS slide, which means that a good shopper would have gone 9-0 by bucking them every time. Now in one of the most pronounced settings of all, we absolutely call for the pattern(s) to continue. Having played their hearts out in tough losses to Boston College and Nebraska to open the season this is already a weary squad (contrast that with the soft Syracuse/Duke opening, both at home, that helped to jump start their run LY), and one that has a home A.C.C. showdown with Maryland immediately on deck. This is a week for Grobe to manage the game, get a win, and move on, with the margin of no consequence.
What takes this to an even higher rating is the fact that we do not have to make this all anti-Wake; Army brings some legitimate puzzle pieces that can help. Because the Deacons lack the personnel to grind anyone in the trenches, and even in games like this must rely on some offensive tricks, the most important matchup consideration on defense are some veterans in the key spots to not be fooled. Enter the savvy Army safety combination of seniors Caleb Campbell and Jordan Murray, both returning starters. At 6-2/224 Campbell is a rare talent for Army, already listed as a Lott Trophy candidate and now making his 29th career start. He and Murray are not going to be fooled much here, and note that only there are also four other returning senior starters on the defensive unit, but nine senior starters with a combined total of 20 letters already, a rare amount of experience at West Point. That is helping to make Stan Brock’s transition from assistant to head coach a seamless one, and it does not hurt that there are playmakers on the other side as well. While senior David Pevoto won the QB job in the fall, his injury vs. Rhode Island is a non-issue; it merely hands the reigns to Carson Williams, who has the best arm of any Black Knight QB in memory. And Williams has a legitimate weapon to throw to in Jeremy Trimble, who is only 20 receptions away from becoming the all-time leader at the academy, and was second in the nation in punt returns LY, averaging 18.1 and taking to of them to the house.
Army is not a good team. But there are some weapons, and there will be the usual focus and discipline to play hard and smart. That is more than enough to make this a game for a long time against a favorite that is not overpowering, and we believe that the Black Knights will be alive to win this outright well into the second half, with the pointspread never coming into play.
This is a 6* at +19 or better, and a 5* at +17 or better.
BIG AL - PRIVATE PLAYERS CLUB
championship - pittsburgh
blue chip - western michigan
linemovers - missisipi state
10 dime - miami hurricanes
offshore steam - arkansas
computer boys - USC
COMFIRMED
Heard Phil Steele's 5* play is Florida Atlantic +7 vs Minneosta @1:00 pm ET
Not sure if it was already posted ???
ASA 6* SOUTHERN MISS
Carolina Sports
4 Smu
3 Kentucky
Wayne Root
Chairmans Miami OH
millionaire GOY Nebraska
Money Maker Utah
No Limit Kentucky
Insiders edge Michigan
Billonaires Arkansas
BIG AL - PRIVATE PLAYERS CLUB
championship - pittsburgh
blue chip - western michigan
linemovers - missisipi state
10 dime - miami hurricanes
offshore steam - arkansas
computer boys - USC
COMFIRMED
JB SPORTS
3* Va Tech
3* Miami O
3* Tulsa
Daniel Perkins ATS Advice College Saturday! (Top Picks 7-1 Run)
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BYU(1-1) @ Tulsa(0-1)
9pm EST
Line: O/U 47
Tulsa has a new offensive coordinator in town, Gus Malzhan has pounded a new no huddle spread out offense in Tulsa. All of the coaching staff is in favour of this new offense and they are expecting results a lot sooner then later. The offense has one goal in mind, score lots and get lots of plays. Tulsa's coaches have requested that officials work at spotting the ball as quickly as possible this week in order to get confidence built in this new offense. The offense is lead by 3 year vet, Paul Smith which gives the offense a already built in leader to take Tulsa and guide them through working a new system in place. In the first game Tulsa got off over 80 plays and scored 35 with over 500 total yards in the game, keep in mind that was the season opener and first game with the system. Since then they have had a 13 day off little break with the BYE Week. Each day they practiced the system making sure it is ready to go in a big game vs BYU today. BYU brings a extremely balanced offense into this game vs Tulsa's young defense. 2 solid games offensively vs Arizona and UCLA who have 2 premier defenses in the NCAA. Max Hall has thrown for over 650 yards and chalked up 4 touchdowns in his 1st 2 games. The Cougars are averaging 415 yards of offense each game. They have gave up many turnovers and are going to break out vs a weak Tulsa defense after playing 2 strong defenses. Last year Tulsa and BYU put up over 70 points and with all the factors in this game falling the way they do the score will easily exceed 47 points or for that matter 57 points. My top play today is on the Over.
Play: Over 47
Tennessee(1-1) @ Florida(2-0)
1:30pm EST
Line: Home -7.5
The Gators are coming off two "tune up" wins where they combined to score 108 points in 120 minutes of football. Today they come into this game hopeing to blowout the Tennesse Vols and continue the dominance of the SEC. Tennessee has played horrible when they are underdogs on the road. Going 2-10 in their last 12 they are in trouble early here. Also in trouble is their secondary. Their start corner back tore his ACL. Antonio Gaines is gone for the season which presents an oportunity for Florida wide out Riley Cooper to have a big break out game. Look for many post and crossing patters towards the Tennessee safety Eric Berry. Berry is a solid player but is not at a decent playing level yet. Still getting used to the college game Berry will face many Gator recievers coming at him and testing him early and often. This is a big problem and should result in many Gator first downs. Look for a strong explosive game from the Gators who will roll to a double digit win and easily cover the spread of a touchdown and a hook.
Play: Florida -7.5
Toldeo(0-2) @ Kansas(2-0)
7:00pm EST
Line: Home -20.5(-130)
The Kansas Jayhawks are coming off wins of 52-7 and 60-0 over SE Louisiana and Central Michigan. Last year in week three...The Jayhawks were upset by Toledo in a double overtime thriller. The Jayhawks are averaging 520 yards a game and are putting up an average of 57.2 points per game. Toledo has a horrible defensive line which is going to be a key factor in this game. Kansas will be able to kill the defense not only through the air but along the ground. Toledo has not had a sack all season and Kansas will be able to move the ball down the field any which way they want and put points up on the board at will. Look for Kansas to dominate this entire game and put up at least 55 points, Toldeo will put up points don't get me wrong but the 21 point spread does not come into play in this one. Jump all over Kansas.
Play: Kansas -20.5 (-130)
Ted Sevransky 11-0 Angle
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EXPERT: Ted Sevransky
TITLE: 100% Perfect 11-0 Angle
REASON FOR PICK: To say that Wake Forest has been a miserable favorite during the Jim Grobe era is something of an understatement. The Demon Deacons last win and cover as a favorite came back in 2002. They are now on an 0-11 ATS run as home chalk, losing five of those games in outright fashion. Wake is a great underdog, and a well coached team, but blowout wins against outmanned foes simply don’t exist on Jim Grobe’s resume.
Wake has just played two intense, physical games against Boston College and Nebraska, losing in competitive fashion each time. They’ve got another ACC contest against Maryland on deck. While Wake surely needs a win here, it’s certainly not an ideal spot to forecast a blowout.
The Demon Deacons have already lost the quarterback that guided them to the ACC title, Riley Skinner, to a separated shoulder. His replacement, Brett Hodges, has only thrown for 270 yards in two games, with a 1-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Remember, the Demon Deacons only averaged 21 ppg in their championship season last year; just 22.5 ppg in their first two games of the 2007 campaign.
Meanwhile, Army looks extremely stout defensively this year, despite their own offensive concerns. In their first two games, the Black Knights have allowed only 3.1 yards per carry and 14.5 points per game, giving up only two offensive touchdowns in two games. This is a strong, veteran defense with six senior starters that is particularly solid against running attacks, like the one they’ll face on Saturday.
While starting quarterback David Peveto got hurt last week, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. His backup, Carson Williams, guided the team to a come-from-behind victory against Rhode Island last week, and started four games last year, with the stronger arm of the two competing QB’s. While this is certainly not one of the better offenses in college football by any stretch of the imagination, as long as the Black Knights can score 10-14 points, we should cash our ticket here with relative ease. (#131) Take Army
Buckeye Sports: 5* Michigan State