Saturday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

kodiak

5units:
Rutgers +3
Louisville -3.5
Colorado +4
Michigan St +17
Ohio Pick
Michigan -2.5
Kentucky +7
SJSU +13

BURNS SAT COLLEGE
Mountain West Game of the Month - San Diego State
Big 12 Game of the Month - Colorado
Situational Game of the Month - Utah State
Shocker of the Month - Pittsburgh
Pac Ten Game of the Year - Washington
SEC Main Event - Alabama
False Favorite - Western Michigan

Dave Malinksy:

PICK: Army
Your pick will be graded at: 25 SPORTSBETTING
REASON FOR PICK: 5* ARMY over GEORGIA TECH

We have been able to cash 6* and 5* tickets with Army in two outings as road underdogs against ACC opponents already this season, and now it is time to go to the well again, with outstanding value in a unique situation. In this case it is not only a chance to play on Army, but against Georgia Tech as well.

For a quick re-cap on the Black Knight side of the equation, Stan Brock inherited something rather rare in West Point when he took over this year – a defense that was loaded with experience. As always they are a few pounds light and a few steps slow, but there is a chemistry that gives the unit some grit. It also allows for a different level of coaching to be done each week, and given that we can always expect a hard effort for the full 60 minutes from an Academy squad, it makes taking the big numbers offered this season the same value it has been through the years in this range. Throw in a play-maker like Jeremy Trimble, and a punter in Owen Tolson that can aid in the field position battles (18 punts downed inside the opponents 20-yard line already this season, making it 52 for his career), and we have more pieces than a team in this category will usually bring to the table.

It is the flip side here that might be the most intriguing, however. Although it sounds rather simplistic, the bottom line is when you get past the midway point in a college season, a team should almost never be favored by more points than their scoring average. We won’t give away the details of this pattern in the past, but suffice to say that this has been a grinder for decades, and Georgia Tech is sitting at -25.5 despite the fact that the Yellow Jackets have only averaged 20.3 per game in their first six lined contests (we only count scoring against board opponents). In four of those six games they did not even score this week’s spread, and in another they managed only 26 vs. Maryland, with seven of those points coming via a fumble return by the defense for a touchdown. The passing game has not been able to make up for the loss of Calvin Johnson, rating 113th in the nation in efficiency, which makes the kind of quick strikes needed to cover as a big favorite difficult to come by.

The clincher here is that Chan Gailey is not interested much in a cover anyway. Gailey has been a gentleman in these settings in the past, and note that since getting a big win over Vanderbilt in his first ever game as Tech coach, when there was an earnest desire to go all-out the entire way, he is just 3-9-1 ATS when laying double figures. Off of five straight conference games, including grueling affairs vs. Maryland and Miami the last two weeks that went to the final possession, this is hardly the spot for him to look for an explosion – it is simply time to take care of business, grind it out, give some key players a breather (Tashard Choice is not going to get 37 carries this week), and move on.

PICK: Florida
Your pick will be graded at: -6.5 Sportsbook
REASON FOR PICK: 4* FLORIDA over KENTUCKY

We absolutely must tip our caps to Rich Brooks and the job that his staff did vs. L.S.U. last week as the Wildcats pulled that stunning upset, but now the situation changes in a major way, and with -6.5 becoming common with the Gators we have an excellent chance to exploit this setting.

Beating L.S.U. shows the kind of talent that Brooks has to work with at some key positions, most notably QB Andre Woodson. But the bottom line is that this roster is still short of the kind of depth that it takes to complete week-in and week-out against the SEC’s upper echelon, especially on defense, where they are dead last in the conference against the run, and are allowing 44 percent 3rd down conversions. They managed to gut out league wins despite allowing Arkansas to run for 338 yards on 6.6 per attempt and L.S.U. for 261 and 5.2, but that is playing with fire, especially since rushing defense is the one aspect of a depth-shy team that can only get worse as the season goes on. Now the Wildcats are playing their 8th straight week without a bye, have to go at it without key offensive playmaker Rafael Little, and now face a setting that is vastly different from last week.

Last Saturday they were catching an L.S.U. team that was physically drained from a grueling win over Florida, and also mentally ripe for an upset after a week of carrying the #1 mantle around. Contrast that with a Gator team that comes in fresh this week off of a bye, and in a gnarly mood off of two straight frustrating defeats in which they were either tied or leading in the final two minutes of play. The physical freshness particularly helps QB Tim Tebow, who can both run and pass at will against this defense, particularly with WR Andre Caldwell having returned to the practice fields, while a young defense gets the full benefit of the mini-camp that a bye week can provide.

Look for Tebow and the Florida offense to have no problems running downhill throughout in this one against a tired Kentucky defense that was on the field for 87 plays vs. L.S.U., and for the Gators to easily top a line that has been adjusted far too low – in the first two meetings between Urban Meyer and Brooks they were favored by -23 on this field two years ago and -26.5 at home LY, coasting to easy wins each time.

PICK: Auburn
Your pick will be graded at: 12 BoDog
REASON FOR PICK: 5* AUBURN over LSU

One of the major misconceptions about college football throughout the years is that highly-ranked teams bounce back off of losses with big efforts. That can indeed happen in the professional ranks, where players have had years of experience at dealing with adversity, but at this level there are hearts being broken for the first time, which can lead to a lowering of confidence instead of a raising of intensity. L.S.U. is just such a case this week, and there is tremendous line value to step in against Les Miles and his team here.

It has absolutely been a sin of omission for us to have not bucked L.S.U. more in SEC play this season; we used South Carolina as a 4* on this field a month ago, and then passed with Florida and Kentucky. That was our bad, but in a current 0-4 ATS slide we see just how over-rated the Tigers are. Those explosive showings vs. Mississippi State and Virginia Tech on national television to start the season earned them far too much respect from the betting public, despite the fact that there are serious issues. The most important is a passing game that not only lost JaMarcus Russell, Craig Davis and Dwayne Bowe to the NFL, but has also been without Early Doucet for most of this season, and in the last three conference games they have gone just 40-85 for 356 yards through the air. But there are some legitimate questions about the rating of that defense as well.

Yes, this defense is among the best in the nation, and Glenn Dorsey is on his way to a big career playing on Sunday’s. But here is where their first five opponents currently rate in the national total offense charts – Tulane (87th), South Carolina (88th), Middle Tennessee State (86th), Mississippi State (110th) and Virginia Tech (112th). And note that in that stretch they faced two teams that were using QB’s most of the way that are no longer starting; they did not have to deal with Middle Tennessee’s Dwight Dasher much, and when Steve Spurrier switched from Blake Mitchell to Chris Smelley the South Carolina offense took the game to the Tigers in the second half. The past two weeks they finally had to face teams that could legitimately attack, and Florida and Kentucky scored 51 points in regulation. In the loss at Lexington last week they did not get a single sack of Andre Woodson in 38 pass attmpts.

There was something else worth noting about the loss to Kentucky – L.S.U. was +2 in turnovers. When you are favored by -10, go +2 in turnovers, and lose the whole game, it is a sign that you are absolutely over-rated. And to be in this range against Auburn indicates that the ratings have not changed at all. To be favored by this much you must have superior talent to your opponent, but that case can not be made. Here are the final scores at the end of regulation the last three seasons between these programs -

AUBURN 7-3 at home

17-17 tie in Baton Rouge, with L.S.U. winning 20-17 in overtime

AUBURN 10-9 at home

Get the picture? Now an Auburn team that is back to full health again, and has arguably been the SEC’s best team over the past month, steps into a role in which Tommy Tuberville has been special – over the last four seasons his Tigers are 6-0 ATS as conference underdogs, with five outright wins and that overtime defeat vs. L.S.U. on this field. An offense that can spread the field and control the ball and a stifling defense are prime ingredients for a dog to hang around, and note that in winning outright on the road at Florida and Arkansas in the past three weeks the Tigers were able to get off 39 more offensive plays from scrimmage through that combination.

This is anybody’s game to win outright. Instead of L.S.U. in a bounce-back mode we anticipate a team that will be physically drained off of those back-to-back epics vs. Florida and Kentucky, and the home team is hard-pressed to merely win here, much less get any kind of margin.

selective

4 units each, wyoming, over the total USC/ND game, over the total Iowa/purdue game.
notes: wyoming game is only a play at 3 or better

Larry Ness' LEGEND Play-CFB (2-0 in FB '07 and 7-1 in CFB regular season since '05!)-Saturday

My LEGEND Play is on UNLV at 9:00 ET. Things have fallen apart at Colo St fairly quickly for Sonny Lubick. Lubick built an impressive resume at Fort Collins (eight bowls in a 10-year span from 1994-2003) but the Rams have gone 4-7, 6-6 (crushed 51-30 by Navy in the Poinsettia bowl) and 4-8 the last three years. Now in his 15th season, Lubick's Rams are 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS) and own the nation's second-longest active losing streak, at 13 in a row (2-11 ATS)! He's hinted this may be his last year and that may be a good idea. CSU has won 10 of its last 11 meetings with UNLV, including the last six in Las Vegas but the three most recent meetings in Sin City, have been decided by a total of just seven points (with MUCH superior CSU teams!). QB Hanie really misses injured WR Sperry and it doesn't help that he's getting sacked almost three times per game. The defense (formerly a Lubick staple) is ATROCIOUS, allowing 32.7 PPG and 211.5 RPG on the ground (109th). UNLV is MUCH better this year, although the team is off three straight losses. HC Mike Sanford has not lived up to expectations so far, winning two games in each of his first two seasons and enters this game 2-5. However, the Rebels outplayed Wisconsin at this site earlier TY (lost 20-13 as 25 1/2-point 'dogs!), crushed Utah 27-0 (as eight-point dogs) and led BYU 7-6 last Saturday night at the half, before losing (but covering), 24-14! RB Summers (568 YR / 4.7 YPC) should have a "field day" vs CSU and QB Travis Dixon has done a reasonable job at QB, after starter Hinds was lost before the season began to an injury. CSU's last win came vs UNLV (28-7 LY in Fort Collins), a fact the Rebels are well aware of. Sanford got his team to play its best game of the season here vs Utah (where he was the OC before taking the UNLV job) and I see the Rebels being "sky high" for this one, too. UNLV's defensive front seven has matched up well at this venue vs Wisconsin, Utah and BYU. Why not vs the "free-falling" Rams? No reason! LEGEND Play on UNLV.

Good Luck...Larry

doc's sports college..confirmed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5* Tenn - PK Game of the Week
4* Michigan -2.5
4* Michigan st +17.5
4* Wisc. -23.5
4* Wake Forest -3
4* Clemson -16.5
4* UNLV -2.5

Scott Spreitzer's CFB Oddsmaker Blowout GAME OF THE YEAR! (Perfect 4-0, 100%!)
We're entering my favorite time of the college football season. It's the time of year when college football's "dead teams" begin to rear their heads. These are teams that are in a complete and utter flat-spot, and have all but packed it in for the season. Colorado State fits the bill. HC Sonny Lubick looks as though he's at the end of the line and the team has dropped 13 straight games. Making matters even worse is that they're now back on the road after dropping back-to-back games as a home favorite. They'll head to Sin City on a 6-16 road spread run, including 0-2 this year. UNLV should find the going much easier this week against Lubick's worst defense since arriving in Fort Collins 15 years ago. The Rams have allowed 24 or more points in 11 of their last 13 games, including all six games this season. And, they're giving up almost five yards per carry and well over 200 yards per game on the ground. UNLV, as mentioned a couple of weeks ago at this site, is improving. They're a season away from challenging for the top spot in the MWC, but they've already passed by this horrible CSU squad. QB Travis Dixon is said to be healthy and ready to start. But I expect to see both QBs, with Omar Clayton in the game when UNLV wants to test CSU with deep routes. Running right at the weak CSU run defense will be arguably the best power-runner in the conference in RB Frank Summers. Defensively, the Rebels own the fastest unit in the league. They should have a field day against Rams' QB Caleb Hanie, who's getting sacked about three times per game on average and has very little talent to work with. As a long-time season-ticket holder to Rebel football (yes, I'm the one), I've learned when to "buy" and when to "sell" with this program. I've won with UNLV on these pages against Wiscy, BYU, and Utah, and won going against them with Hawaii & Nevada. It's time to "buy" this week. I expect at least a two TD win by UNLV.

Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take #393 New Mexico (-8) over San Diego State (8:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Note: This is our Gridiron Game of the Week.

New Mexico has won six straight in this series and are a spectacular 11-1 ATS, including eight straight in San Diego. Their margin of victory over the past five years is 17.6 points per game. New Mexico has covered in eight straight and is by far and away the better team here. They have one of the top defenses in the Mountain West, while SDSU is either last or second to last in every major offensive category. I think the Lobos lock down on the Aztecs and win in a rout.

3-Unit Play. Take #364 Central Florida (-2.5) over Tulsa (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Central Florida is coming off an embarrassing loss to South Florida, but this team has had a different attitude about it this week. They’ve been working in full pads all week and I think they’re out to show that last week was a fluke. This is Tulsa’s first game on grass this year and I think that their offense will be slowed just enough for the UCF defense to control this game.

3-Unit Play. Take Tennessee (Pk) over Alabama (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
I have been saying all year that 'Bama is overrated and that's coming to a head right here. Phil Fulmer is coaching for his job every week, and I simply do not trust the Crimson Tide to come up with a big win. I'll take the better quarterback and the better rush defense against a team that's struggled with Houston and Mississippi.

3-Unit Play. Take #334 Colorado (+4) over Kansas (5:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
I’ll take a home dog here. The books are trying to do anything they can to slow down Kansas, which is 5-0 ATS. The home team has won eight of 10 in this series and the Jayhawks have dropped their last five in Boulder by an average of 23 points.

3-Unit Play. Take #353 Miami (+5.5) over Florida State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
The underdog is 6-2 ATS in this series over the past eight years and I think that six points is about three too many here. Over the past three seasons there has been an average of 22 total points scored in this game as defense dominates. Underdogs in conference play are 15-5 in the ACC this season and Miami is 6-3 ATS in this series (3-1 ATS at FSU). We’ll take the points and look for an outright Hurricanes win.

3-Unit Play. Take #307 Louisville (-3) over Connecticut (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Louisville is in a prime letdown spot after their win over Cincinnati last week, but I’m still more willing to back their talent over Connecticut. The Huskies haven’t played anyone near the caliber of the Cardinals and I think their 5-1 record is somewhat of an aberration. Louisville is 3-0 against the Huskies with a 20-point average margin of victory.

3-Unit Play. Take #331 Ball State (-1) over Western Michigan (2 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
We are playing against an awkward line movement here. I like WMU, but Ball State has been a tough out for the entire season. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and I think that Nate Davis will take advantage of a banged up Broncos defense. This will be a close game to the end, but I think that Ball State has the moxie to pull this one out.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #310 Syracuse (-3.5) over Buffalo (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Syracuse is pathetic. I’ll be the first to admit it. But I don’t think that they are this bad where they are going to lose at home to the upstart Bulls. The Orange are 1-6 on the year, but they have played an absolutely brutal schedule. Buffalo got bombed by Baylor earlier this year and is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight against the Big East. Syracuse is 9-1-1 ATS against the MAC and are 9-3 ATS as a home favorite. Again, the Orange aren’t going bowling but they also aren’t going to lose to Buffalo.

2-Unit Play. Take #388 Illinois (+3) over Michigan (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
I’ll take the speed, the home team, and the points in this one. I think that Mike Hart will play, but if he’s limited or if he doesn’t play the whole game I think that’s a huge blow to the Wolverines. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series and Michigan is 12-25-1 ATS as a road favorite.

ace-ace / allan eastman

4 c mich +16
4 nd +18
3 miss st +24'
3 nev -7

marc lawrence revenge gow colorado

DR. BOB: 4 OHIO STATE, 3 MEMPHIS, ILLINOIS, 2 FRESNO STATE, TROY STATE

SUPER POWER "7" = 2 units = #393 NEW MEXICO @ - 8 1/2

TOP PLAY = 1 1/2 units = #351 & #352 (USC vs. Notre Dame) UNDER @ 45

REGULAR PLAYS = 1 unit =

#348 MISSOURI @ - 3 1/2
#373 FLORIDA @ - 6 1/2
#334 COLORADO @ + 4
#391 AUBURN @ + 10

POINTWISE PHONE SERVICE
October 20, 2007
COLLEGE:
4 Stars: Colorado, Texas
3 Stars: Tennessee, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Auburn,
Miami-Florida, East Carolina
2 Stars: South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida
NFL:
4 Stars: No 4 Star Plays This Week
3 Stars: Buffalo, Jacksonville, Washington, New England
2 Stars: Denver, Kansas City
Remember: 4 Star Plays are our highest rated plays, and all releases are
given in Order of Preference.

Brad Diamond Sports

Saturday, October 20th
Fighting Irish Upset Southern California in South Bend on Saturday!

Fan Appreciation Revenge Game of the Week

Play on: Notre Dame (352) plus over Southern California @ 3:30 EST
Don’t laugh! The Irish are primed to erase their long-time nemesis from the thoughts of College Football fans for 2007. Another major fall by the Trojans will eliminate them from a glitter bowl at the end of the season. HC Charlie Weis of the Irish has just that in his “to do” list come this Saturday in South Bend. Yes, the Irish recruits on the field are faltering without the southern speed that matriculates to Florida schools and the west coast schools. Weis has a contract through 2015 and some in the administration are starting to worry. But, again the recruiting guru’s nationally have listed the Irish as the top class committed for 2008. As an offensive mind, Weis has no peers, but then again the QB position is not manned by Tom Brady. On the field Saturday, we obviously see a speed alert for the Trojans skill set, but the quarterback position has been inconsistent this season and the running attack managed under 100 yards in that upset loss to Stanford. Last week in a 20-13 win over Arizona, QB Mark Sanchez threw 2 critical interceptions that forced the Trojans to keep the ball on the ground to avoid another upset. USC scored 10 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to survive at home. Last week Note Dame played their hearts out against the other Catholic School from back east only to lose 27-14. One Irish touchdown came on an interception return, while ND ran for under 25 yards against the stout Eagles defensive front seven. Some way Uncle Charlie needs to resurrect a running game that is hurt by a lack of speed, but too, an offensive line that commits critical physical mistakes in “pulling” situations. On paper this does not look good talent wise and the trends and angles all say Southern California. Still, I’ll take a ticket for an outright upset by Notre Dame in a game they finally catch all the breaks.
…NOTRE DAME 22 USC 21