Norm Hitzges
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2007 Season Overall Record (131-126)
Regular season: NCAA: 78-79 NFL: 39-27
Note to Clubhouse Members: Starting 9/3/07 Late Football Selections from Handicappers Around the Nation will be posted in the Members Only Section every Saturday and Sunday
Weekend of 10/27/2007
NCAA
Double Plays
Fresno +3 vs Boise
Vandy -13 vs Miami, OH
Kansas State -25 vs Baylor
North Carolina +5.5 vs Wake Forest
Texas A&M +3 vs Kansas
Texas -20.5 vs Nebraska
Bowling Green -7 vs Ohio
Oregon St. -13.5 vs Stanford
Penn State +3.5 vs Ohio State
Single Plays
South Florida -5 vs UConn
Texas Tech -13.5 vs Colorado
Tulsa -14 vs SMU
E. Carolina -14.5 vs UAB
Nevada -17 vs Idaho
South Carolina +3 vs Tennessee
Mississippi State +14 vs Kentucky
Middle Tennessee State -12.5 vs UNT
Florida -7.5 vs Georgia
NFL
Double Plays
San Diego -10 vs Houston
Cleveland/St. Louis Over 45
Single Plays
Chicago -5 vs Detroit
New England -16.5 vs Washington
Tennessee -7.5 vs Oakland
Pittsburgh -3.5 vs Cincinnati
Jacksonville/Tampa Under 32
Denver -3 vs Green Bay
Pittsburgh/Cincinnati Under 48
Colin Cowherd
penn state +4
florida -7.5
lville -9.5
oregon -3
cal +3
texas a&m +2.5
Strike Points
4 Mich St
3 Cent Mich
5 Ore
5 Wash
2 Virgin
3 Stan
3 Kan
5 Ariz St
Greg Roberts-
Auburn -18 Over Ole Miss
Houston -6 Over UTEP
Texas A&M +2.5 Over Kansas
Georgia +7.5 Over Florida
Southern Cal +3 Over Oregon
South Carolina +2.5 Over Tennessee
Louisville -9.5 Over Pittsburgh
Maryland +2.5 Over Clemson
Tulane -1.5 Over Memphis
Washington State +6 Over UCLA
West Virginia -6 Over Rutgers
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Steelers -3.5 Over Bengals
Purelock
Akron + Points
MARC LAWRENCE PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB plays
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10/27/07 - CFB
DOWN RIGHT DEFENSIVE
PLAY ON any college home dog from Game Five out that allows 2.5 points
and allowed 31 < points in their last game.
ATS W-L Record SInce 1980: 16-0
Play On: Penn State
Rationale: Quality defensive home dogs bring a lot to the table,
especially when they have an offense that is capable of putting
points on the scoreboard.
10/28//07 - NFL
HEINOUS HOME DOG
PLAY ON any NFL home dog off back-to-back SUATS losses if they
started the season 0-4 and lost to a division foe in their last game.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 20-0
Play On: St. Louis Rams
Rationale: NFL home dogs bring out their best after they've become
thoroughly embarrassed. They also command value frm the oddsmakers
because of their plight
Kelso Sturgeon
50 Middle Tenn St
10 East Carolina
5 Rutgers
5 Oregon
5 South Florida
Tom Stryker's 14-0 ATS CFB Shocker of the Year - Two PERFECT Sets!
#177 SOUTH CAROLINA (+) over Tennessee at 7:45 PM EST
South Carolina and Tennessee enter this contest off a pair of embarrassing losses and this game means a lot to both programs. Respect is certainly given to a Vols bunch that stands 14-1 SU and 12-3 in their last 15 coming off a double-digit SU loss. However, Gamecocks head coach Steve Spurrier knows how to beat UT skipper Phil Fulmer and USC can and will pull off this minor upset. Let�s take a look inside the numbers.
Even though South Carolina stands 2-13 SU in its last 15 meetings in this series, the road team has been golden posting a perfect 10-0 ATS mark in the last 10. Also, under Spurrier, the Gamecocks have been a solid play on foreign soil. Since 2005, USC owns a reliable 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS record away from home including a stellar 7-1 ATS mark in this set priced as a pup. Those two team trends are nice but this next system really makes this play pop.
Since 1980, conference road dogs priced at +6 or less are a money-making 39-12 ATS for 76.4 percent provided they lost straight up priced as a conference home favorite of -7 or more last. Wait, that�s not the best part. If our angry traveler dropped its last game by 11 points or more, this system skyrockets to a perfect 14-0 ATS! South Carolina fits the general situation and the undefeated tightener!
In its last 25 games as an SEC host, Tennessee has struggled something fierce notching a woeful 7-18 ATS mark. If the Vols are matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .333 or better in this spot, this team trend crashes to an ugly 4-17 ATS! Don�t be surprised when the Gamecocks win this game straight up on the field. Take South Carolina! Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
Chip Chrimbes A-Play
Megabuck Play A Day - Penn State
Chip Shots - Texas A&M, UCONN, NC State
Ethan Law | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
111 Northwestern 13.0 (-110) Bodog vs 112 Purdue
Analysis:
BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR!
NORTHWESTERN (5-3) at PURDUE (6-2)
Unlike my counterparts who will undoubtedly be focusing their attention on the match-up between Penn State and Ohio State this weekend, I would rather focus my attention to a contest that isnt getting much (if any) attention from the betting public and one that has a tremendous amount of value. I have avoided picking each of these teams all season long, and I must say that I was right to do so as each of these teams have been mysteries from week to week. Purdue (6-2 SU & 3-4 ATS) comes into this contest with loses of 2 of their last three. They have gotten it does this season with their explosive offense that averages 36 points and over 298 yards passing per game. However, their defense is what get them in trouble ranking 59th in the nation and one that is giving up on average 377 yards per game. The weakness within those stats is their secondary that is allowing 241 yards passing per contest good for 77th in the nation. Some highlights of their ineptness are games against Minnesota where they gave up 469 yards (232 rushing) and the game against the countries worst overall total offense as their secondary allowed 377 passing yards to Notre Dame! The two Purdue losses were against perennial conference powerhouses Ohio State and Michigan. Meanwhile, similar to Purdue, Northwestern (5-3 SU & 3-4 ATS) has been a very difficult team to figure out this season. They were able to upset Michigan State on the road (where they had 611 total yards of offense), but then they actually lost to Duke. Similar to Purdue, Northwestern also lost to Michigan and Ohio State. Northwestern is also coming off a very lackluster 26-14 win over a very bad Eastern Michigan team, which could explain he value we are getting in this line. Its no secrete how the Wildcats win their gamewith an offense that averages 28 points and 326 yards passing, but like Purdue their defense struggles at this team comes into this contest with the 83rd ranked defense in the nation.
These team have played two similar opponents this season with both of them suffering rather one-sided losses. The difference, however is that Northwestern actually out-gained Michigan and are 6-2 in the stats this season (meaning that they out-yarded their opponents), while Purdue is 5-3. As such, (on paper) these teams are very similar, despite the fact that Purdue has one more win on the season. So now we must focus on this ridiculous line that has had me banging my head all week. Purdue opened as a 12.5 point favorite and line has moved only a half a point all week despite betting indicators showing that that there is a 3-1 differential supporting Purdue this weekend. Usually, Vegas would respond to those numbers by moving the line, but guess what folks, that is not the case here so we already know we are on the books side in this contest. Some pretty good news. But it still does not explain why this line is so high. We know that Purdue is off an impressive home win again Iowa and we also know that Northwestern is off a rather unimpressive performance against Eastern Michigan. So its understandable if this line was around 4 or 5 from the start. But to make this line 13 is saying that Purdues home field advantage is over a touchdown. So I examined Purdues performance in their home stadium and I found that not to be the case. Indeed, Purdue comes into this contest at just 5-13 ATS their last 19 home games, so this is not a roll they relish. While examining some of these trends I also came across this rather interesting tidbit. Purdue is 10-0 UNDER the posted total in home against conference opponents over the last three seasons. That is interesting only because we are looking at the possibility of taking on 12.5 points so if Purdue traditionally play UNDER in those contests the points are also worth looking athmmm even more food for thought.
From a motivational standpoint, Northwestern sits at 5-3 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible, while Purdue has already virtually assured themselves a trip to somewhere in December. Northwestern also had this game circled on the schedule after last seasons 31-10 loss at Purdue. In that contest, Northwestern lost their starting quarterback and the key to their offense in running back Tyrell Sutton also was not 100% for this contest. This season, is almost a complete reversal. Purdue has a monumental revenge game with Penn State on deck (as they were shut out last season), while North Western appears to be 100% focused and motivated. Remember above how I discussed how these teams were very similar? Well those similarities were when Northwestern was playing without the services of the above mentioned Tyrell Sutton who is set to return to action for the first time since mid-September (although he did play sparingly against Eastrn Michigan). Just how good is Sutton you ask? Well through 27 career games, Sutton is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and 96.1 rushing yards per career outing. He has scored 26 career touchdowns, 22 rushing and four receiving. For those who unfamiliar with Sutton he is an ultra explosive running back who will further the success of the Northwestern Passing attack one that already ranks 6th in the nation. Fundamentally, the Wildcat offense is one of the few in the country that can keep up the Purdue scoring machine. The passing game has been unstoppable over the last three weeks, with quarterback C.J. Bacher throwing for 520 yards and five touchdowns against Michigan State, 470 yards and four touchdowns against Minnesota, and 361 yards against Eastern Michigan. This does not bode well for a Purdue team that has only face two elite passing attacks in Central Michigan and Michigan, and their secondary was decimated. Moreover, dont forget this secondary also gave up 377 passing yards to Notre Dame! If of this is not enough to convince you how about the fact that Northwestern enters this game with an extra day of prep time after having last played on Friday and the fact that Northwestern is an incredible 13-3 ATS as underdogs of 17 or fewer points in Big 10 clashes.
Verdict: Purdue 24, Northwestern 31
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NORTHWESTERN +13;
PLAY 1/2* UNIT ON NORTHWESTERN +$380
Asa
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6 Tomorrow
4 WV
4 TTech
4 T A@M
3 FL under
3 Penn St under
PLATINUM PLAYS - College Lock of the Year- Texas A&M Aggies +3
Best Bets-
the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS - 13½ OVER
the Colorado Buffalos
the MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS - 3 OVER
the Iowa Hawkeyes
the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS - 3 OVER
the Kent State Golden Flashes
the MARYLAND TERRAPINS + 3½ OVER
the Clemson Tigers
the UCLA BRUINS - 6 OVER
the Washington State Cougars
the DUKE BLUE DEVILS + 17½ OVER
the Florida State Seminoles
the COLORADO ROCKIES/Josh Fogg + 125 OVER
the Boston Red Sox/Daisuke Matsuzaka
the Boston Red Sox & Colorado Rockies
OVER the posted total of 10½ runs
wild bill
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So. Florida -4 1/2 (5 units)
Wisconsin -7 1/2 (1 unit)
North Carolina +6 1/2 (4 units)
L'ville -11 (1 unit)
Florida St -17 1/2 (3 units)
Mississippi +18 (1 unit)
Iowa State +28 1/2 (3 units)
Baylor +24 1/2 (1 unit)
Texas A&M +2 1/2 (3 units)
Colorado +14 1/2 (1 unit)
Colorado ML +470 (1 unit)
USC +3 1/2 (5 units)
USC ML +125 (1 unit)
Washington -3 1/2 (1 unit)
Florida -8 1/2 (1 unit)
NC State +3 1/2 (2 units)
Nebraska +21 1/2 (1 unit)
Rice +8 1/2 (5 units)
Over 69 1/2 Rice-Marshall (1 unit)
Bowling Green -7 (2 units)
Washington St +6 1/2 (1 unit)
South Carolina +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Toledo -3 1/2 (2 units)
Kentucky -13 1/2 (1 unit)
Penn State +4 1/2 (5 units)
Penn St ML +155 (1 unit)
Cal +3 1/2 (5 units)
Over 60 Cal-Arizona St (2 units)
Cal ML +135 (1 unit)
Over 78 1/2 NM St-Hawaii (5 units)
UL-Monroe +7 (1 unit)
North Texas +13 1/2 (1 unit)
NCAA TOTAL OF YEAR: Over 57 1/2 West VA-Rutgers (10 units)
Donnie Black SEC game of the year is Georgia
Marc Lawrence 100% CFB Super Pick Super Play - Saturday 10/27
Play On: Akron
Note: Zips take on the Bulls in a battle for first place in the MAC East Division race knowing they are 8-0 SU in this series, having been favored all eight games (-17 at home last year and 1-0 here two years ago). With Akron playing with a week of rest and Buffalo having allowed season high and 2-high yardage in its last two games, look for the Zips to improve to 5-0 SUATS as a conference dog off a loss under head coach J.D. Brookhart here today.