NCSports Early Bird..Saturday....Illinois-10'
NCAAF Chicks clients = -40.55 units (25-36-1)
NCAAF Chicks fade = +22.05 units (36-24)
Saturday:
Game of the Year 11 units ~ 323 Vanderbilt +14.5
[since I am fading to win $1,100 I will buy the 1/2 point and take 324 Fla -14 @ -120...there is too much $$ risk for me to lay 14.5 when I can easily drop the 1/2 point for only 20%]
Game of the Year 11 units ~ 390 Minnesota +14 @ -150
[NCAAF Chicks bought 2 pts for 50%...faders will take 389 Illinois -12]
Game of the Year 10 units ~ 353 Marshall +14
Game of the Month 9 units ~ 340 Boise St -25.5
7 units ~ 327 Colorado St +21
5 units ~ 313 Cincinnati U +7 @ -150
[NCAAF Chicks bought 2 pts for 50%...faders will take 314 S. Fla -5]
4 units ~ 336 Penn St -7
3 units ~ 348 Oregon -7 @ -120
[NCAAF Chicks bought the 1/2 pt for 20%...faders will take the +7.5 with 347 Arz St]
2 units ~ 356 Michigan St +4
2 units ~ 398 Georgia -16.5
NFL Chicks clients = -67.05 units (48-56)
NFL Chicks fade = +18.55 units (56-48)
Ferringo
COLLEGE SELECTIONS
4-Unit Play. Take #377 Wake Forest (-1) over Virginia (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 3)
Virginia will be without its starting running back and Wake has quietly been one of the best teams in the country over the past month. I think that if Virginia had trouble with N.C. State’s speed last week they are really going to have problems with the Deacons. I also trust that Wake can put points on the board much more than I believe that the Cavaliers can. We’ll go with the hot team here.
4-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #337 Navy (+10.5) over Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 3) AND Take #313 Cincinnati (+12) over South Florida (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 3)
Note: This is a 7-point teaser. I do endorse plays on both of these sides, I simply feel like there's tremendous value getting these teams through all of the key numbers.
After 43 straight losses I think that the Middies finally crack the win column against the Irish. Navy has the No. 1 rushing attack in the country, while Notre Dame’s rush defense is 94th. It has nothing to do with scheme – Navy is just bigger and badder. The road team is 11-1 ATS in this series and Navy is 47-18 ATS in its last 65 road games.
The Bulls are getting all the action from the public but the Bearcats are the rested, prepared team here. Cincinnati overwhelmed the Bulls at home last year and, facing a beat-up USF squad, are more than physically imposing enough to hang with them now. South Florida has gotten muscled up by Rutgers and Connecticut, and UC will just keep hitting them. Cincy has been a very good dog, exceptional on grass and on the road in general, and a solid underdog over the past two years.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #376 Colorado (+4) over Missouri (6:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 3)
Speaking of live dogs – the Buffaloes are 5-1-1 ATS against the Tigers and take on a Mizzou team that just lost its defensive captain. Colorado has recently faced three pass-happy Big 12 offenses – Texas Tech, Kansas, and Baylor – and held all three under their season averages for points scored. I think they win this game outright but we’ll take the points anyway.
3-Unit Play. Take #328 BYU (-21) over Colorado State (2 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 3)
The Rams have absolutely mailed it in and are now going up against a Cougars team that has dominated them lately. BYU is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings and 3-1 ATS in the last four games in Provo. BYU’s average conference win over the past two years is over 30 points.
3-Unit Play. Take #374 Oklahoma State (+3) over Texas (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 3)
I don’t see where Texas has done anything to warrant being a road favorite over the Cowboys. The Longhorns have not beaten one quality team – not one – and their only victory over a likely bowl team was a three-point squeaker at Central Florida. Oklahoma State has won four of five, with a more impressive victory over Nebraska and a much more impressive win over K-State, and they’ve had two weeks to prep. I think they are a very live dog here.
2.5-Unit Play. Take First Half: #348 Oregon (-4) over Arizona State (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 3)
The Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS against the first half line this year. I don’t know what it is, or why I didn’t start simply playing against them in the first 30 earlier. But Rudy Carpenter isn’t 100 percent and this is the best team they’ve faced this year. I think it’s more likely that the Devils come out flat after their “statement” win over Cal than the Ducks not coming to play in the Thunder Dome.
2-Unit Play. Take #356 Michigan State (+4.5) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 3)
Even though the public is pounding the resurgent Wolverines, the line is moving away from Big Blue. Home dogs in a rivalry are always a solid play, as is playing against Top 25 teams favored by less than a touchdown against unranked teams. MSU has won four of five at home this year and has enough of a defensive presence to cause some problems for Henne, Hart, or whoever is in the backfield.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #310 Indiana (-6.5) over Ball State (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 3)
I think that this will be a very emotional game for the Hoosiers this weekend and that they get a huge win en route to their stated goal of getting to a "13th Game". The Hoosiers have run through the teeth of their Big 10 schedule and have seen their value dwindle. But this is still a sneaky good team and I see them winning big here.
NCoast Early Bird
Illinois -11
NCoast 4* Power Play (6-3 this year)
Tulane +7
Underdog Play
Alabama +7.5
NCoast #2 Economy Club 15-8 last 2 years
NCSt +12.5
NCoast Comp. CUSA POW 6-2 this year
Memphis +5.5
BIG GAME ALERT Ben Burns' Conference GAME OF THE YEAR 5-2 YTD
Conference USA Game of the Year
Memphis
Ben Burns' SEC MAIN EVENT (38-22 L60 MEs) NATIONAL TV
Alabama
Northcoast Big Dogs
North Carolina State
Vandy
Nebraska
Army
greg roberts 7*
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7* COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR:
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE +7
Chris Fallica's picks
CAL
TEX TCH
MICH ST
NO. DAME
KANSAS
Sat, 11/03/07 - 12:00 Greg Shaker | CFB Side
triple-dime bet316 Northwestern -1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 315 Iowa
Analysis: NCAAF: Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats - Northwestern -1 -110 | Unit Value: 3 DIME "Big 10 Game of Year"Game Date: 11/3/2007
Note: The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off a good effort last week at home to Michigan State but then again what is new. this team has been hard to beat at home but now they must travel again and that has not been what they have done well this year and previous years as well. Actually, we can lok at what they did and how they beat the Spartans to see that it was not as impressive as it might appear. They were outgained in that contest by a whopping 468 to 283 in total yards and out-firstdowned 23-12. Just 12 first downs is not going to win this game Saturday. The Hawkeyes will also enter this game with some injuries on defense and mostly in the secondary. Playing the spread offense of the Wildcats is not what they want to have to do considering this fact. Northwestern actually led Purdue in the 4th quarter last week before falling and the score is not indicative of what that game was all about. They allowed a defensive TD in the last quarter and were only outgained by a very good Boilermaker offense by 100 yards. Our team is close to being Bowl eligible and we can expect a concerted effort from them in this game. Iowa has yet to win on the road and in the process has scored just under 10 points per contest, with just 227 total yards per game and 74 on the ground. If you cannot run the ball away from home you are not going to be successful in most cases. The QB comparison Saturday is highly in our favor with Christensen completing barely over 50% of his passes this year. Northwestern's Bacher can be as good as anyone in the Big Ten and he should have his way with this banged up Hawkeye D. Too many Wildcat weapons will be on the field Saturday and in many more cases, Northwestern will win this matchup for the 3rd consecutive year.
wunderdog whole card
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Game: Ucla at Arizona (Saturday 11/03 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Arizona +1.5
UCLA is a tough team to figure out. So far they have dissapointed and underperformed, and that usually points to leadership issues or hidden team problems. Last week they went to Washington State and got hammered. They were outgained by nearly 300 yards by a deficient 2-5 team. The week before they beat California at home convincingly. The week before that they lost 20-6 to a hapless Notre Dame team that can't score or defend. They also got whipped at Utah by 38 on the road. Arizona has won or been competitive in every game they have played at home. Willie Tuitama can really air it out, as he has thrown for 2,800 yards, 21 TDs and just 9 INTs. UCLA looks like the type of team that just wants to show up for the big games, and has no interest. If they get down, they fold. UCLA is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a road favorite in the Pac 10. They have big games vs. Arizona State, Oregon and USC on deck so we dont' expect UCLA to be focused here. Look for an Arizona team that has been very sharp at home to grab control early and deflate the easily deflatable Bruins.
Game: Maryland at North Carolina (Saturday 11/03 3:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Maryland +2.5
North Carolina simply has no offense. They appear to be more than they really are. Backers will point to their win vs. Miami and apparent competitive game vs. SC. But, we see them for what they are - a very bad team. They caught Miami sleeping and went up 27-0. But they had to hang on for dear life to get the win. SC was cruising 21-3 on the road at the half, played a scoreless 3rd quarter, and NC made a game out of it after the outcome was determined. How bad is this team offensively? Outside of the Miami game, they have not found the endzone in their other four games until the 4th quarter when the games were decided. T.J. Yates has more INTs than TD passes this year. Maryland has had a very difficult six week schedule. They have had to face West Virginia, Wake Forest, Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Clemson. They are 1 point away from spliting those six games. Maryland will use it's huge OL to pound NC between the tackles and it shouldn't take many points to put this one away. North Carolina is just 18-33 ATS as a home favorite over the past decade. One team here is going to a Bowl game, and the other is not. Wrong team favored.
Game: Middle Tenn State at Louisiana Monroe (Saturday 11/03 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Louisiana Monroe +4
ULM running back Dawson has amassed nearly 1,000 yards already and in this game can set the all-time UL Monroe career rushing record. This team is very good - better than most think - having won and covered three of their last four. This game is a tough one for Middle Tennessee State, especially as a road favorite. Blue Raiders QB Dwight Dasher has been the offense for Middle Tennessee State (60% with 8 TDs to one INT). He's out this week with a knee injury. This is a team that is allowing 33 ppg on the road on way to a losing record. They've won their last three but two of those wins were against much weaker competition - Arkansas State and North Texas. We like UL Monroe to give a good fight here and cover this number.
Game: Texas at Oklahoma State (Saturday 11/03 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Oklahoma State +3
This is a match-up that Oklahoma State has had circled for a long time. Last year they went to Texas and were hammered 36-10. The tide has turned however! Oklahoma State has one of the most balanced offenses in the NCAA. Zac Robinson has passed for over 1,500 yards with 13 TDs to just six INTs. He has completed TDs to seven different recievers, but his favorite target has been Adarius Bowman who has caught 50 balls for 802 yards. He's well on his way to an All-American season. Robinson is more than an arm and a leader. He is a duel threat that has churned out 415 yards on just 68 carries (6.1 per carry). That puts him just third on this team. Dantell Savage has carried 124 times for 746 years (6.0 ypc) and Kendall Hunter has toted 76 times for 573 yards (7.5 ypc). This trio has pounded defenses for 1,734 yards, on 6.5 ypc. The offense is excellent and ranks 10th in the NCAA. The defense has had some moments, and they have had some problems. They gave up over 700 yards to Texas Tech and over 500 yards to Kansas State. What was similar about those two games? They won them both! This is one of the very few teams in the country that can overcome 700 yards allowed and win! Texas was supposed to be built to win it all, or be in the hunt to win it all come January. That hasn't happened. The problems start with QB Colt McCoy. McCoy has put up some impressive numbers but with 15 TD passes and 13 INTs, you can see the problem. Signs were evident all the way back to week one when Texas struggled against a futile Arkansas State team at home 21-13. They struggled against a decent Central Florida team and trailed in the 4th Quarter. If not for an INT returned for a TD, they end up on the short side of the scoreboard. They were beaten by 20 at home by Kansas State. They then trailed a Nebraska team that had been blownout three straight weeks, including a game vs. Oklahoma State. They were down 17-6 midway through the third in that game. Texas has seen special teams breakdowns, defensive breakdowns, and Colt McCoy imploding during games. They now face another problem. They are going to be missing at least one defensive line player, and maybe two as Roy Miller and Thomas Marshall are both battling injuries. We have watched as this Texas team has struggled at home vs. much lesser competition, and have not come close to being tested on the road. Their road conference wins have come to Baylor and Iowa State teams that combine for four total wins. Texas is just 1-5 ATS in their last six conference road games. This is a hungry Oklahoma State team, and they have been beaten into the ground by Texas for a longtime. They finally have a team that can beat them. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game. OSU is 4-0 at Boone Pickens Stadium, outscoring opponents 41-8. They have lost nine straight to Texas, but that will come to an end in this one.
Game: Rutgers at Connecticut (Saturday 11/03 7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Rutgers +1.5
The Big East has had some surprise teams this season. Earlier this year, the nation watched S. Florida rise near the pinnacle of the BCS only to meet their demise soon therafter. The problem for bettors who jumped on their bandwagon is that by the time they were "known," the value was gone. UCONN has now risen to the number 13 position, and it is time to get off this bandwagon as the value is once again gone. Here is a team at the height of their season, and the line is dropping against them. And for good reason. The Huskies will run out of smoke and mirrors, and the top 10 rated defense, which has been exposed the last three weeks. Exposed-yes, but also hidden as they have come away with two victories. The Huskies have been given two wins by officials - one vs. Temple, one vs. Louisville. They played one of the softest schedules in the nation in the first five weeks. They have since had three tough games in a row and it is wearing. The Huskies have been out-gained by every one of their last three opponents. They have had good fortune, as they played Louisville and S. Florida in the rain, S. Florida in the rain. They lost to Virginia. Rutgers is coming off a humiliation to W. Virginia, who will win the Big East. So we take that loss with a grain of salt. Ray Rice will have his way with the UCONN defense in what will be good playing conditions this week. Under Schiano, Rutgers is 30-17 ATS as an underdog. And, good road teams (those at 60%+ SU) are 27-7 ATS the past five seasons following a 21+ point loss to a conference rival. Connecticut is in a good letdown spot after their biggest win ever (and first ever national ranking). We look for Rutgers to not only win here, but win convincingly!
Confidential Kick-Off
The Gold Sheet
CKO Vol. 46 - November 1 - 5, 2007 - No. 10
11 *OHIO STATE over Wisconsin
Late Score Forecast:
*OHIO STATE 40 - Wisconsin 10
Ohio State's dominating 37-17 victory at Penn State is the best indicator yet that there is only one truly scary obstacle in the way of the Buckeyes' run to an undefeated regular season, and that's the finale at Ann Arbor. 6-5 jr. QB Todd Boeckman now has such confidence in his huge OL, and 236-pound RB Chris Wells (996 YR) has become such commanding presence in the backfield, that Boeckman is able to work Jim Tressel's well-designed play-action passes to near perfection. This is not to say UW (19-3 SU the last 1+Ys) is not a worthy opponent. But the Badger RBs & WRs have been hampered by injury much of '07, and P.J. Hill's backup--Lance Smith-Williams--is grounded for road games. Meanwhile, the somewhat disappointing UW "D" has yielded more than 30 points TY to Big Ten foes Michigan State, Illinois, and Penn State. OSU (16-5 vs. the spread in Big Ten last 2+Ys) goes to the whip for the stretch drive.
10 BALL STATE over *Indiana
Late Score Forecast:
BALL STATE 35 - *Indiana 31
Ball State has compiled a remarkable road record, notching a 14-2 spread mark away from home over the last 2+ seasons, including a perfect 4-0 against Big Ten teams. Much of the reason for this streak is heady play of Cardinal QB Nate Davis, who has thrown for 2453 yds. and 21 TDs this season, with only 4 interceptions. His favorite targets are 6-6 TE Darius Hill (44 catches this season; 20 career TDs) & WR Dante Love (130 career catches, 18 TDs). Indiana has dropped three in a row straight-up in quest for 6th win and bowl eligibility. Part of the reason Indiana has struggled is due to injuries. Four offensive line regulars & the starting NT either didn't play vs. Wisconsin or left the game with injuries. Indiana is dangerous with nifty QB Kellen Lewis & 6-7 future NFL WR James Hardy, but the Hoosiers are in for a battle.
10 *ALABAMA over Lsu
Late Score Forecast:
*ALABAMA 23 - Lsu 20
Long-time SEC scouts believe solid pointspread value exists with SEC West contender Bama, considering the jelling Tide played its most complete game of year in resounding 41-17 victory vs. Tennessee. Bama o.c. Major Applewhite expanded the playbook for savvy, efficient QB J.P. Wilson (58%, just 5 ints.), who took full advantage by hitting 32 of 46 for 363 yds. & 4 TDP vs. Vols. And with the coaches adding a few gadget plays during bye week, the balanced Tide attack will do business vs. an LSU stop unit yielding 34 ppg in last 3. Meanwhile, doubt Tiger QB Flynn (only 8 TDP) will find comfort zone, since Saban's confusing blitz packages should prove effective vs.an LSU front that has permitted 19 sacks. Moreover, Bama might own strategical edge since shrewd Saban has personal knowledge of many Tiger players, having recently been the LSU head man for 4 years.
10 ARIZONA STATE over *Oregon
Late Score Forecast:
ARIZONA STATE 30 - *Oregon 26
Dennis Erickson and Mike Bellotti reprise their coaching rivalry from old Beavers vs. Ducks "Civil War" battles when Erickson was at OSU...three jobs ago. But Erickson mostly got the best of those confrontations (covered last 3), and his unbeaten ASU bunch has the ingredients to fluster Bellotti once more. Specifically, an aggressive, speed-based defense that has the sideline-to-sideline "quicks" needed to deal with mobile QB Dixon and Oregon's spread. Meanwhile, Ducks' "D" is the most vulnerable platoon on field, so expect big, veteran Sun Devil OL to provide ample protection for hot QB Carpenter and stable of ASU RBs that doesn't seem to miss injured Ryan Torain (backups Herring & Nance combined 181 YR vs. Cal). Note Sun Devils outscoring foes 153-29 in 2nd half thus far!
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTHWESTERN (-1) vs. Iowa--Northwestern "O" led by QB Bacher very potent. Iowa's 2nd-half offensive "explosion" vs. Mich. St. atypical of what the Hawkeyes have produced this year (11 ppg on the road)...BUFFALO (+7) at Miami-Ohio-Buffalo HC Turner Gill has Bulls believing in themselves and QB Drew Willy is completing 67%...MICHIGAN (-4?) at Michigan State-Wolverine RB Hart & QB Henne were held out vs. Minnesota to be ready for this one. Spartan 2nd-half fade tendencies will be extended...OKLAHOMA STATE (+3) vs. Texas...Longhorn QB McCoy is banged up & OL isn't protecting him. Rested OSU has high-octane attack
JOE GAVAZZI’S
COLLEGE
PHP SIDES
5% ALABAMA
4% OKLAHOMA ST
4% VANDY
STEAMROLLERS
5% Illinois
3% KANSAS
3*% AIR FORCE
COLLEGE PRIVATE PLAYS
5* Rutgers (+2) over CONNETICUT
3* S Miss (-11) over UAB
3* Michigan (-3.5) over MICHGAN STATE
EZ Winners Sports:
5 STAR: (374) OKLAHOMA STATE (+3) over Texas
(Risking $550 to win $500)
1 STAR: OKLAHOMA STATE +$135 ML
(Risking $100 to win $135)
2:30PM Central
This is a bad spot for Texas as they are playing their fourth road game in five weeks against a rested Oklahoma State team. Conference home underdogs playing off of back to back wins with rest are 29-10 against the spread and the Cowboys are 9-4 against the spread as a home underdog. The Longhorns continue to be overvalued by odds makers this year, despite being a pretty ordinary team in the Big 12 this season. This year’s version of the Horns struggle to put away bad teams and have lost their only two true tests against Oklahoma and Kansas State. Oklahoma State is the better team here. The Cowboys offense is balanced and explosive, one of just 12 teams in the nation that run and pass for over 200 yards each per game. I expect Texas to be out muscled in this game on both sides of the ball. Also, the Longhorns are only 1-9-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as a favorite of three points or less. Take the points!
5 STAR: (325) SOUTH CAROLINA (+4.5) over Arkansas
(Risking $550 to win $500)
1 STAR: SOUTH CAROLINA +$170 ML
(Risking $100 to win $170)
7PM Central
The Gamecocks have lost back to back games, but I like them here against the one dimensional attack of the Hogs. Arkansas has been running the ball well the last two games, but they are up against a much better defense here. South Carolina is 10-2-1 against the spread on the road and the Razorbacks are just 1-5 against the spread versus a team with a winning record. The “Ole Ball Coach” will have his boys ready to play. Take the points!
3 STAR: (365) NEW MEXICO (+3.5) over Tcu
(Risking $330 to win $300)
1 STAR: NEW MEXICO +$145 ML
(Risking $100 to win $145)
4:30 PM Central
New Mexico is back in their most profitable spot as a road underdog. The Lobos are 16-4 against the spread in their last twenty games as a road underdog and 20-8 against the spread when playing with revenge in Mountain West games. The TCU offense has been mistake prone this year having committed 21 turnovers already this season and that will play into the hands of a Lobo defense that has been thriving on takeaways. Odds makers continue to set lines based on Horned Frog teams of the past and not the present. TCU is only 1-4 against the spread following a straight up loss. Take the points!
2 STAR: (337) NAVY (+3.5) over Notre Dame
(Risking $220 to win $200)
1:30 PM Central
Navy has not defeated Notre Dame since 1963! This is their best chance to do so against a very weak Notre Dame team. The Middies are coming off of a loss last week to Delaware, as they were caught in a classic look ahead game, but there is plenty of fight in this team and a win over the Irish will make their season. The Navy defense is very bad, but the Notre Dame offense is also very bad. The Navy offense is very good, they lead the nation in rushing and are one of the top teams in passing efficiency, and the Irish defense is very bad. I look for Navy to get enough stops to cover the number if not win the game outright. Navy has flourished for years as a road underdog, covering 14 of its last 19 games in this role. Take the points!
2 STAR: (370) TOLEDO (-7.5) over Eastern Michigan
(Risking $220 to win $200)
6PM Central
The Rockets offense is rolling, as they have scored 146 points in their last three games. What looked like a lost season, could end up with a bowl berth if they win their last three games. Toledo has won six out of the last seven meetings with the loss coming last year at Eastern Michigan, so this is a revenge game for the Rockets. Eastern Michigan has lost their last three trips to the Glass Bowl by an average of 28 points per game. The favorite is also 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings. Look for that trend to continue. Lay the points!
ace-ace / allan eastman -8.95u ytd ncaa fb
5 nd u 57
3 wisc +15
4 oreg -7
2 okla -21
MARC LAWRENCE PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB CFB pick
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This week's play from Marc's Perfect System Club:
11/3/07 - CFB REVVED UP HOME DOGS
PLAY ON any college conference home dog off back-to-back wins with
rest and revenge from Game Eight out if they won 7 > games last
season and won their last game by < 30 points.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 12-0
Play On: Oklahoma State
Rationale: home teams playing with rest and revenge off a win late in
the season play well with an week of rest. If they are are quality
team that did not catch the oddsmakers eye in their last game they
really respond in these situations.