brent crows
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20* NCAA Game of the Year Superplay Report 11/9/07 Daily Selection
11/10/07 CFB 20* Superplay: Mississippi State +4.5 (
Wunderdog
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Game: Arizona State at U C L A (Saturday 11/10 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on U C L A +7
Arizona State, as have many college football teams this year, saw the magic come to an end last week as they were handed their first defeat at Oregon. This is yet another team that has not shown any success on the road. Yes, they beat a weak Stanford team 41-3. But, they barely beat Pac-10 cellar dweller Washington State 23-20 on the road in a game they were outgained by 150 yards. So, in two of the three games they played on the road they have been significanly outplayed. Now they face the Bruins who are complete no-shows for the easy games, but show up big for the bigger games. They beat a very good BYU team soundly, handed Oregon State a thrashing on the road (OSU's only home loss) and pounded a good California team. But, the Bruines got crushed by an average Utah team and were hammered at Washington State. The message is clear: bring in a big team, and the Bruins come up big. Pu Arizona State on the road, and they are ordinary. Getting a bundle of points with the Bruins is a very sound, value laden investment. This is also a big letdown spot for ASU after losing for the first time, with USC on the horizon as well. UCLA has lost just twice in conference, and if they pin another loss on ASU, they are within striking distance of Oregon. UCLA is 13-5 ATS as an underdog under Karl Dorrell and 13-4 ATS at home over the past three seasons. We like the Bruins a s a live dog in this one.
Game: Memphis at Southern Miss (Saturday 11/10 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Memphis +16.5
We see a large overlay in this one. Southern Miss has dominated this series going 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS the past 15 years. But, the average spread in those games was Southern Miss by 5.5 points. Even in games played at home Southern Miss wasn't asked to lay anything near 16.5 points. The average home line was half of this number. It is difficult to ask a team that scores 26.9 ppg to cover a huge spread, especially when they are out-scoring their opponents by just 3 ppg on the season. Memphis is a team that can score. Their offense ranks #45 amongst all teams and at 27 ppg, should be able to put enough points up to cover this lofty spread. Southern Miss has had trouble with large spreads at home, because they have never been an offensive team, having covered a double-digit line just once in four years (total record: 1-6 ATS). Memphis has been just the opposite, as they have failed to cover as a double-digit dog on the road just once since November of 2001, and stand at 6-1 ATS in this role. With Tommy West as head coach, Memphis is 9-2 ATS on the road vs. winning teams. Southern Miss has just nine TD passes from their quarterbacks to 10 intercepts while Memphis stands at 21 TDs to 9 INTs. Memphis is going to be able to score enough to stay within the number here.
Game: Florida at S. Carolina (Saturday 11/10 7:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on S. Carolina +7.5
It's hard to believe these two teams are a combined 7-7 in the conference, but such is life in the rugged SEC. This is an interesting match-up of opposites. South Carolina is the #1 stop unit vs. the pass, but has trouble stopping the run. Florida is strongagainst the run, ranked 18th, but 80th vs. the pass, which is what SC does best. It appears to be a challenging game for the defenses. This is a much different team than we saw last season with Florida. The Gators played 14 games last season, and just three times did they allow an opponent to reach 20 points. This year's team has allowed 20 or more in each of the last eight! S. Carolina, after opening 6-1, has fallen on hard times dropping their last three. But, two of those losses were on the road. This is a game that SC will have no trouble getting up for. With former Gator coach Steve Spurrier at the helm, SC has always seemed to be ready to face Florida. Last year they had a 16-10 lead late on the road, and almost pulled off the shocker before falling by 1 point. Two years ago they soundly beat the Gators at home. Florida lost 10 of their top 12 tacklers from a year ago and it shows. If there's one thing at which Spurrier excels, it is putting together a pass oriented offensive attack. This is a perfect matchup to exploit the Gators' weaknesses. This is a bigger game for SC than it is for Florida, and playing at home, versus his old school, you can bet his Gamecocks will be fully energized. The home crowd will be lathered up as well. In a game that should go the wire, we like the lofty spread. Throw in the fact that the gators are a horrible 1-8 ATS as a road favorite under Urban Meyer, and we have a play on the Gamecocks.
Game: Kansas at Oklahoma State (Saturday 11/10 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Oklahoma State +6
Last week we saw a Kansas team in waiting, in a circled game against Nebraska, a team that had completely humiliated them on many occasions. The Jayhawks certainly got themselves up for the game, and put one on Nebraska. It was a big "take that" beat down based on years of pent up frustration. It has been 100 years since Kansas has opened a season 9-0. The nation has finally noticed. Their perfect record thus far is in part because of their very good play, but also comes thanks to a cupcake schedule. Kansas played no one out-of-conference. Games vs. Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, and Florida International filled the stat sheets and the win column, but did little to prepare them for the road ahead. They have also met Baylor and Nebraska at home. The 6-0 home record shows Kansas out-scoring these teams 348-72. But these teams Kansas has beaten at home are a combined 5-24 SU with wins vs. such powers as Kent State, Western Michigan, Ball State and Buffalo. These six teams that combine for a 5-24 road record are being out-scored on the road by 1225-531!! If you look at Kansas on the road, they have been held in check all season. Wins have come by 5, 6 and 8 points to mediocre teams as the Jayhawks put up just 22.7 ppg (vs. 58.0 in home games). They are off their most emotional win of the season, and have Missouri waiting in the wings. Meanwhile Oklahoma State hasn't dropped a game to Kansas at home since 1995. We will ride the points, and what could be an Oklahoma State straight-up win.
Big Al McMordie ACC GOY
Va Tech
Greg Roberts Radio Show
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NOVEMBER 10-11 WEEKEND PICKS
Missouri -19 Over Texas A&M (Favorite Game)
North Carolina State -3.5 Over North Carolina (Favorite Game)
Mississippi State +4.5 Over Alabama
Cincinnati -6.% Over Connecticut
South Carolina +7 Over Florida
Auburn +2 Over Georgia
Kentucky -3.5 Over Vanderbilt
Ohio State -15 Over Illinois
Oregon State -5 Over Washington
Southern Mississippi -16.5 Over Memphis
Arkansas +1 Over Tennessee
Dolphins +3 Over Bills
Giants +1.5 Over Cowboys
Chargers +3.5 Over Colts
Nationwide (goldst):
Super 7: Iowa,
Top: Bc, Reg: Wf, Rice, Oh St, Stan Under
Inside Info:
3*ariz St,
2*fla
Gameday:
4*cin
BIG MONEY:
Kansas
Steve Simonson Picks 11/10/7 (3-0) Last Saturday
(3-1) on the year.
GOY 10* UCF -20 1/2
Penn St. -24 9*
Rice +6 7*
Teaser of the day 9*
Miss. St. +10 1/2
WF +14 1/2
NELLYS 4* IOWA
jeff bonds
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Sat, 11/10/07 - 3:30 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
triple-dime bet144 Utah -13.5 (-110) vs 143 Wyoming
Analysis: The Utah Utes are going full steam ahead through the MWC now that starting QB Brian Johnson is fully healthy. The Utes have won five straight games with him behind center and are coming off an opportune bye.
Utah is 6-0 ATS off of a bye week and Wyoming is coming off a VERY disappointing loss to San Diego State on the road. Now the Cowboys play their second straight road game and face a team that is seeking revenge for an embarassing loss last year. Wyoming held Utah to just 144 total yards in 2006, but expect the tables to be turned in a BIG WAY.
The Utes ran for a season-high 332 yards before the bye and the defense has built a streak of holding opponents to under 300 yards in three straight games and haven't allowed a TD in five quarters.
Wyoming gets buried this week, moving its ATS record in November to 0-8 in its last eight tries and 2-13 ATS after a straight up loss
Sat, 11/10/07 - 12:30 PMGreg Shaker | CFB Side
triple-dime bet148 Mississippi St 5.0 (-110) BetUS vs 147 Alabama
Analysis: NCAAF: Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs - Mississippi State +5 -110 | Unit Value: 3 DIME "SEC Dog of the Year"Game Date: 11/10/2007
Note: Mississippi State started off this season getting crushed by LSU but the Tigers have become their friends lately as once again, the Bullies will play a team fresh off a game with the best team in the SEC. They are the most physical team as well and I am sure you remember what Miss State did to Kentucky 2 weeks ago. The home team in this game has other advantages as well and that does include a week off to prepare. Bye weeks are very important at this time of the year and especially in the very physical SEC. It does allow for bodies to get well and that is so very important. Many times, listed injuries are not the only one's a team has and the fact is, every player has something nagging them at this time of the year. That is the advantage that the Bulldogs have this week in this game in Starkville and that is not the only thing. It is well publicised that Head Coach Sylvester Crooms was passed up for the Alabama job in favr of Mike Shula, and he and his football team have not forgotten that. Last year as a a 14 point dog, the Bulldogs travelled to Tuscaloosa and manhandled this team, coming away with an easy win. The motivation will continue Saturday. Of course it takes more than that to win games in this tough conference, and Miss State has the ability to do that with an offense that has come alive. QB Wesley Carrol is playing way beyond his years. The Dogs are a much improved team right now because of that and they have very good recievers and running backs. Alabama does have suspended players for this game but that is just not as important as the situation we have at hand with Miss State practices being very good all week including one on Saturday. These comments for Crooms came in the Starkville Daily News, At this point of the season, its the first time since weve been here that were playing for something. For bowl eligibility and a chance to really have an outstanding season if we can close it out strong. Playing them here, you couldnt ask for a better situation. Asked about the Alabama offenses ability to remain one of the leagues more productive units despite recent player suspensions, Croom had ZERO sympathy. Weve been without our quarterbacks all year long and nobody has rolled out any crying towels for us and Im sure not going to roll out any for them. The Bulldogs will be ready Saturday in very many ways. This betting line is 5.5 at many books but is good at any line. I will be throwing some cash on the moneyline.
Johnny Detroit's Steam Play:
Vegas Steam | CFB Side
dime bet120 Clemson -9.0 (-110) Bodog vs 119 Wake Forest
Greg Shaker | CFB Side
double-dime bet130 Cincinnati -6.5 (-110) BetUS vs 129 Connecticut
Analysis: NCAAF: Connecticut Huskies at Cincinnati Bearcats - Cincinnati -6.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 11/10/2007
Note: This game offers extraordinary value in many respects. If these two teams had met 6 weeks ago, we would be seeing a line somewhere in the 11 point range and maybe even higher. These are the same two squads as 6 weeks ago but one nas gained more respect than they need to, and one has lost the same amount. The fact is, Cincy is a better team than who they will be playing Saturday and they will prove. The Bearcats have lost 2 times this year, they were back to back, and one of them we benefited from, as cross the river rival Louisville came to town and thumped them. They remained in a daze as they travelled to Pitt and lost again. Last week that ship was righted again, as CFB often do, and they beat a pretty good South Florida team on the road. They beat them BAD. This team is BAD on D when they want to be and they will want to be this week. They have a good offensive scheme as well with a very balanced attack. Blah, blah, blah. The real story here is the fact that UConn will not be in the friendly confines for this game and it will not even be close to friendly. They do have 3 big wins the last 3 weeks back in Connecticut but a totally different atmosphere for this one. While all of the paper stats are about even for this matchup, the Bearcats have played overall better teams and have performed better overall as well. They are 7-1-1 ATS the last 9 times they have played teams with a winning record and they are 7-2 ATS last 9 at home. We will see better QBing from this bunch and that, along with a smothering D, should give us what I think to be a 14 to 17 point win.
Pure Lock
NCAA 7-3 this season 21-3 last 2 years in the regular season
AUBURN
Tim Trushel's
20* NCAA Underdog GOY
SOUTH CAROLINA +7
Spylock
1 Purdue
1 Indiana
1 Air force
1 Texas Tech