Saturday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

ace-ace / allan eastman

3 mich +4'
3 kentky +7'
3 ind +2'
3 nev +7

Burns Big 10 GOM

MICHIGAN (+3 or better)

Game: Ohio State University vs. Michigan Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Michigan Reason: I'm taking the points with MICHIGAN. The list of teams which have struggled the following game after suffering their first loss is a long one. Last week, after suffering their first loss, the Boston College Eagles lost outright vs. Maryland. Meanwhile, also last week, the Arizona State Sun Devils failed to cover vs. a banged-up UCLA team, after having suffered their first loss the previous week. There have been a ton of other "big name programs" and/or highly ranked teams which have also struggled (failed to cover) this season, the week after suffering their first loss. Some of them include LSU, South Florida, Florida, California, Clemson, Cincinnati, Rutgers and way back in September, Michigan. This week, it's Ohio State which is coming off its first loss of the season. While the Wolverines, who also lost last week, already learned how to "bounce back" from a loss, this is a new experience for the Buckeyes. I expect that to favor the Wolverines. Regardless of the situation, the Wolverines have thrived as underdogs. They were underdogs once this season and beat Penn State outright. Last season, they covered vs. these same Buckeyes (3 point loss at Ohio state) and won outright vs. underdogs vs. the Irish. (Note that two straight games in this series have now been decided by four points or less.) Looking back further and we find them at a highly profitable 7-1 ATS the last eight times they were getting points and 14-6 ATS the last 20. Regardless of who plays and who doesn't, look for the Wolverines to be fully focusued on the important task at hand while the Buckeyes get caught thinking about "what might have been." *Big 10 GOM

Ferringo
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
4.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #368 Kansas State (+7.5) over Missouri (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Note: This is our Big 12 Game of the Year.
I think Missouri gets caught looking ahead here against a team that is fuming after giving up 70+ points last week. Manhattan is a tough place to lay a touchdown in and I think the Wildcats win this one outright. The Tigers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six trips there.

4.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #370 Michigan (+4) over Ohio State (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 17)
Note: This is our Big 10 Game of the Year.

Chad Henne and Mike Hart are going to play and they’re going to play well. Whatever letdown effect Michigan may be feeling after a loss at Wisconsin, it has to be 10 times as bad for the Buckeyes who had dreams of a national championship. I’ll take a home dog in a rivalry like this, especially since the Wolverines have been eyeing this game since they lost to Appalachian State.

4-UNIT PLAY. Take #337 Mississippi State (+11) over Arkansas (2 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Mississippi State continues to be undervalued and I think their physical front seven will be able to slow down the one-dimensional Arkansas attack. The Razorbacks are in a prime letdown spot – they are 2-8 ATS after losing by more than 20 points – and could be looking ahead to a prime matchup with LSU next weekend. Mississippi State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 road games and 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road dog. The underdog is a stellar 10-2 ATS in this series and I think the Bulldogs take an early lead before succumbing late in a close contest.

3-UNIT PLAY. Take #354 Rice (-2) over Tulane (3 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Tulane is 8-18 ATS as an underdog and 5-16 ATS on turf. Rive is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 conference games and I think they manage their third consecutive win this week.

2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #322 Cincinnati (+6.5) over West Virginia (7:45 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
The Bearcats are one of the few teams in the country that are physical enough in their front seven to suppress the Mountaineers running attack. WVU has owned this series over the past 15 years but now Cincinnati has some horses to settle the score. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS as an underdog and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall. This sets up in a situation similar to when they trounced Rutgers last year. And while I don’t think they are going to run away with this one I can see them winning outright.

2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #371 Miami (+17) over Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
The Hurricanes are 8-1 as an underdog after scoring less than 14 points and 7-1 ATS after allowing 35 or more points. Miami is a bad team, but I think this spread is a bit generous for a Va. Tech team that can have problems scoring. ACC underdogs have hit at a ridiculous clip this season so we’re going to hop on this one here.

2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #326 Indiana (+2.5) over Purdue (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Note: This was originally posted as a 2-Unit Play at 6 p.m. EST. It was intended to be a 2.5-Unit Play so it has been upgraded at 6:06 p.m. EST. I apologize for any inconvenience.

Indiana's entire season has come down to this game and I think they win it on emotion alone. We have a home underdog in a rivalry game here and this is the win that the Hoosiers have been looking for since their coach tragically died during the offseason. The Hoosiers win this one outright to get themselves to a 12th game - a bowl game.

burns personal fave

CLEMSON (-10 or better)

Game: Boston College vs. Clemson Game Time: 11/17/2007 7:45:00 PM Prediction: Clemson Reason: I'm laying the points with CLEMSON. These teams have been going in opposite directions and I expect that to continue this evening. Boston College had been rather fortunate to get to 8-0. After reaching that lofty mark, the over-achieving Eagles had national championship on their minds. However, after losing by double-digits vs. Florida State, the Eagles lost by seven at Maryland last week. Conversely, the Tigers, who defeated both Maryland and Florida State, come in on a major roll. In fact, they're 4-0 their last four games winning by a combined score of 191-51! Most recently, the Tigers dominated defending conference champion Wake Forest 44-10. While the Eagles have outscored opponents by an average score of 25-19 on the road, the Tiger have crushed opponents by a 41.3-19.8 margin here at home. Boston College has achieved its 8-2 record largely due to a powerful passing attack, led by QB Matt Ryan. However, Ryan has struggled lately and on Saturday he'll be facing arguably the best secondary which he has seen all season. In fact, the Tigers are first in the league and third in the country in pass defense, surrendering only 162 yards to opponents through the air. While Ryan is arguably still the bigger name, Clemson's Cullen Harper has been the much better quarterback in recent weeks. Indeed, during the Tigers' four-game win streak, Harper has completed 77.1 percent of his passes for 902 yards and 12 touchdowns with only one interception. Harper's 154.1 passer rating for the season tops the ACC, while Ryan has dropped to fifth (129.8) after completing just 52.2 percent of his attempts in the last three games, throwing seven interceptions along with seven touchdowns. The Tigers have won nine of their last 10 home finales, when not facing rival South Carolina. Look for them to continue their excellent recent play as they avenge last season's loss and advance to the conference championship game with another double-digit victory *Personal Favorite

Doc"s Sports - College

4* Nev +7
4* C Mich -13
4* Cinc +6.5
4* Iowa St +26
4* Minn +14
4* Nd -6
4* Buffalo +1
5* Clemson -7.5
5* Mich St +2.5
6* Indiana +2.5

Burns #1 total of the week

UNDER cincinnati/west virginia

Game: West Virginia vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Game Time: 11/17/2007 7:45:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on West Virginia and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams feature highly explosive offenses and the betting public will be expecting a shootout. However, both teams also feature excellent defenses and I'm expecting it to be significantly lower-scoring than expected. West Virginia is allowing a mere 15 ppg on the road and 16.7 overall. That stout defense has led to the UNDER going 3-1 their last four road games, three of those games producing 45 combined points or less. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are allowing only 16.2 points per game and a miniscule 10.2 at home. In their most recent game, they held Connecticut to just three points and just 22 rushing yards. That brought the UNDER to 4-1 the Bearcats' last five games and 7-3 their last 10 home games which had an over/under line. Note that ALL 10 of those games produced 54 combined points or less and that they averaged only 34.8. Looking back further and we find that the Bearcats have also seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 30-12 their last 42 games (with an over/under line) played on turf. Additionally, the Bearcats have seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 49.5 to 56. During the same stretch, the Mountaineers have seen the UNDER go 13-5 when playing a road game with an over/under line in the same range. Look for those numbers to improve as the final combined score of this big game is lower than expected. *Total of the Week

Spylock

1 Ohio State
1 U Conn

gary greene bluebook has arkansas (-11) top play in college foots.

selective

LSU/Ole Miss Under 54 for 5 units

Michigan +4.5 for 4 units

S-Miss/Utep Over 66 for 4 units

Minnesota +14 for 4 units

NCAAF Chicks

Friday:
4 units - 311 Hawaii -6 [11:00 pm]
1 unit - 311 Hawaii ML -240 [11:00 pm]

Saturday:
4 units - 322 Cincinnati +6 [7:45 pm]
2 units - 362 Washington +7 [3:30 pm]
1 unit - 342 Baylor +14 [7:00 pm]
1 unit - 363 LSU -19 [3:30 pm]
1 unit - 322 Cincinnati ML +200 [7:45 pm]
1 unit - 362 Washington ML +240 [3:30 pm]

TEDDY COVERS:

11/17/07 CFB 20* Big Ticket: San Diego State +11 (335)

ANALYSIS:
One of my favorite late season betting strategies is to support improving teams that are way underneath the national radar. These teams invariably were lousy in September, coming into the season with low expectations, and then achieving those low expectations. The betting marketplace adjusts much slower to late season improvement than it does to early season failures. And that, folks, is the only reason that we’re catching double digits with an ascending San Diego State team here, making this play worthy of Big Ticket status.
Air Force hasn’t had a bye this season, playing in their 12th consecutive ballgame. For a thin team like the Falcons, depth is most assuredly an issue at this time of the year. And, for a team that lacks depth and extraordinary athleticism, we can expect a tired, banged up Air Force squad to take the field this Saturday. Air Force has already clinched their bowl bid. They are coming off back-2-back emotional victories over Notre Dame and Army in their last two ballgames. They’ve covered the number in six straight games, forcing the linesmakers to ratchet up their pointspreads higher and higher.
Last year, in their final two games favored by more than a touchdown, Air Force lost outright. This year, they’ve only been favored by more than a TD once, against a hapless Army squad. Even in that game, Air Force struggled to cover the number. Air Force was favored by 5.5 points over UNLV at home a few weeks back. San Diego State just beat UNLV in Las Vegas, but they are double digit favorites here. Hence the aforementioned pointspread value on the Aztecs, on full display.
San Diego State was terrible in September, exactly what they were expected to be in Chuck Long’s second season at the helm. But we saw them eke out a straight up road win at Colorado State as 13 point underdogs in early October. Then the Aztecs had New Mexico beaten before a late fumble from QB Kevin O’Connell cost them the victory. That loss could have spoiled their season, but instead, San Diego State came together as a team. O’Connell rallied the Aztecs from 21 down to beat Wyoming, then led them to a 38-30 road win at UNLV last week. This is an emerging late season squad, exactly the type of squad that offers the most pointspread value here in November. San Diego State already has a pair of straight up wins as a road underdog this season. Their only loss by more than a field goal since the beginning of October came at Utah, a far superior squad to the one they’ll face on Saturday. San Diego State beat Air Force outright as a ten point underdog last year, 19-12. Don’t be shocked if we see a similar final score on Saturday. Big Ticket: (#335) Take San Diego State.

11/17/07 CFB Michigan +4 (370)

ANALYSIS:
There is not a significant talent gap between Michigan and Ohio State. Both teams rank in the top 10 annually in terms of their recruiting class. Both schools routinely send players to the NFL upon graduation. And historically, we don’t see many extended winning or losing streaks in this annual battle for Big 10 supremacy. There are no inherent structural reasons for the Buckeyes recent dominance in the series (three straight wins and five victories in the last six years).
Both the Wolverines and the Buckeyes lost last Saturday, but the two losses could not have been more different in terms of their implications. Michigan went up to Madison and lost a ‘throwaway’ game to the Badgers. Chad Henne didn’t play after the first quarter; Mike Hart didn’t play at all. Lloyd Carr knew full well that the Big 10 title and a trip to the Rose Bowl came down to this week’s game, with last week’s game irrelevant to the big picture. In the great tradition of Lou Holtz, Carr was sandbagging, holding his best back for this week’s game. Last week’s loss affects the Wolverines in only one way – it gives us a great pointspread to bet on them this week.
Ohio State saw their national championship dreams shattered with a home loss to Illinois. A team that had played above their heads all year, on a mission to put last year’s national championship game debacle behind them, just saw those redemption dreams collapse. Teams coming off their first loss of the season here in November make for horrible road favorites the following week – just ask anyone who bet Arizona State or Boston College last week. I expect it to be very difficult for the Buckeyes to bounce back from that defeat with a spread covering victory this time around. Michigan’s seniors have never won a bowl game or beaten Ohio State, closing the season on a two game losing streak in each of the last three years. Since the start of spring camp, this group of Michigan seniors have talked of nothing else – the entire season has been in preparation for this one ballgame. Expect both Hart and Henne to play, and play effectively. Lloyd Carr is likely to announce his retirement after the game. The stakes and the motivation could not be bigger for this live home underdog, making them a clear choice to support with our betting dollars on Saturday. (#370) Take Michigan.

11/17/07 CFB Louisiana Tech -5.5 (382)

ANALYSIS:
It hasn’t been a pretty year for Dick Tomey and the San Jose St Spartans. After shocking the country with a nine win season for a perennial losing program last year, the Spartans have regressed mightily in ’07, entering this game with a 4-6 record. While the Spartans come into this game off an impressive 51-17 win over hapless New Mexico State last week, don’t expect that success to translate to this week’s test at Louisiana Tech.
Prior to their win over the Aggies last week, the Spartans had lost their previous two games by a combined score of 72-7. On the road this year, San Jose has lost by 20 or more five times in six games, the lone win and pointspread cover coming against 0-10 Utah State. Those results are typical for teams that can’t run the football. Since last year’s 1000 yard rusher Yonus Davis got hurt, San Jose State’s offense has been completely one dimensional. As a team, they haven’t rushed for 1000 yards this year, in the bottom 10 nationally both in yards per rushing attempt and in total rushing yards, bad news for any team trying to grind out clock and stay competitive in a hostile road environment.
Louisiana Tech went 3-10 last year, and started out this season with a 2-5 mark in their first seven games. The two wins came against FCS Central Arkansas, and by one point, in come-from-behind fashion in a non-spread covering effort against the same New Mexico State team that just got blown out by San Jose St. But the Bulldogs have shown some real fight since, beating Utah State and Idaho by double digits behind a balanced attack that produced more than 200 rushing and 200 passing yards in each of those two wins. Derek Dooley’s squad has clearly improved since the start of the season, giving us the necessary value to back them here. Senior quarterback Zac Champion may not live up to his moniker, but he is a savvy general behind center. Champion has dramatically improved from where he was last year, with his interceptions cut from 18 as a junior to just 9 as a senior. Running backs Patrick Johnson and Dan Porter have nearly 1400 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns between them. But this bet is on the Bulldogs defense as much as it’s on their offense. La Tech has held five of their last seven opponents to 24 points or less, the only exceptions coming against powerhouses LSU and Boise State. They dominated San Jose St on the Spartans last trip to Ruston, winning 31-14. A similar result should be expected here. (#382) Take Louisiana Tech.

11/17/07 CFB South Florida -8 (386)

ANALYSIS:
There haven’t been many teams more disappointing than Louisville this season. Touted as potential national championship contenders coming into the season, the Cardinals haven’t even approached the tremendous heights that this program achieved under Bobby Petrino, In four years under Petrino’s tutelage, the Cardinals won at least nine games each season, finishing with a Top 20 ranking in ‘04, ’05 and ’06. But Petrino bolted for the lure of NFL dollars in the offseason, and his replacement, Steve Kragthorpe, simply wasn’t prepared for the jump from Conference USA to the Big East. Right now, Louisville is sitting at 5-5, with a sub .500 record in conference play, a whopping disappointment for an underachieving team. History clearly shows us that these type of teams are not likely to bounce back with a strong late season run.
Don’t be fooled by the relatively tight final score of Louisville’s most recent loss, at West Virginia last Saturday, The Cardinals were able to hang around largely because of Mountaineer mistakes, like their three second half fumbles. They still gave up 38 points to West Virginia, and could give up even more this week, because their defense is an injury plagued disaster area right now. Louisville had only 25 healthy defensive players last week, and lost a few more to injury during the game – their depth is woefully thin, and their talent level is rather thin as well, bad news for a warm day in South Florida. The Cardinals were forced into nickel defensive sets last week because they didn’t have enough healthy linebackers to take the field. That approach simply isn’t going to work against the Bulls power rushing attack. To make matters even worse for Louisville, their offense has become completely one-dimensional in recent weeks. The Cardinals have no running game these days, held under 100 yards rushing in five of their last seven games. Louisville has only one game in those seven where they managed to run for more than 3.1 yards per carry. In other words, if they can’t throw the football, they can’t win. South Florida is ranked #9 in the country in pass efficiency defense and with sackmeister George Selvie dominating the line of scrimmage, they are #1 in the country in tackles for loss. We saw South Florida hold Louisville to 14 points on their last visit to this field, and a similar result here would be no surprise. The Bulls snapped their three game losing streak with a resounding win at Syracuse last week, gaining 346 of their 582 total yards on the ground. The starters sat out the fourth quarter and South Florida still won 41-10. No surprise here if we see a similar final score in this one. (#386) Take South Florida.

burns 3 game exec report

GEORGIA (-10 or better)

Game: Kentucky vs. Georgia Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:30:00 PM Prediction: Georgia Reason: I'm laying the points with GEORGIA. The Bulldogs will be looking for payback after getting upset by the Wildcats last season. That game came at Kentucky though while this week's game comes at Georgia. That's worth noting as the Bulldogs won 45-13 when the teams faced each other here most recently (11/19/05) and 30-10 prior to that. In fact, prior to last season, the Bulldogs had won nine straight series meetings with the most recent five victories all coming by double-digits. Its also worth mentioning that in 60 all-time series meetings, the Wildcats have never won two in a row. The Wildcats managed to squeak by Vanderbilt last week. However, they'd lost two in a row before that and they're just 3-12 the last 15 times they played the second of back to back conference road games. Conversely, having scored 40+ points three times in a row for the first time since 1942, the Bulldogs come in as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Bulldogs, who can still win the SEC Championship, are 4-0 their last four home games. All four victories came by double-digits. Looking back a bit further and we find that their last six home victories have all come by a minimum of a touchdown. Look for more of the same this afternoon as the Bulldogs avenge last season's loss in convincing fashion. *SEC MAIN EVENT

FLORIDA STATE (-10 or better)

Game: Maryland vs. Florida St Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Florida St Reason: I'm laying the points with FLORIDA STATE. After upsetting Boston College, the Seminoles stumbled at Virginia Tech last week. They're 14-5 the last 19 times they were coming off a conference loss though and I expect them to bounce back with a convincing victory this week. While they lost at Maryland last season, the Seminoles have dominated the Terps here in Florida. Looking back to 1995 and we find the Seminoles are a perfect 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) as a series host with all five victories coming by a minimum of eight points. In fact, the Terps have never won at Tallahasse! Its also worth noting that the last seven Florida State home victories (against any opponent) have all come by a minimum of seven points, six of them coming by eight points or more. Look for them to win by more than that this afternoon as the Terps suffer a "letdown" after last week's upset and fall to 1-5 ATS their last six road games.

KANSAS STATE (+6 or better)

Game: Missouri vs. Kansas St. Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:30:00 PM Prediction: Kansas St. Reason: I'm taking the points with KANSAS STATE. I successfully played against the Wildcats last week, as they got absolutely crushed at Nebraska. In fact, the 73 points the Wildcats allowed was the most since a 75-28 defeat to Oklahoma way back in 1971. Ironically, the Huskers were also coming off an embarrassing loss in which they had allowed a franchise record number (76) of points. Like the Huskers did last week, I expect the Wildcats to bounce back with a MUCH better effort this week. This is a huge game for the Wildcats for several reasons. For starters, they still need to win a sixth game to become bowl eligible, although even six wins isn't necessarily a guarantee of a bowl berth. Perhaps more importantly, they desperately need a victory for the fans, players and alumni to feel better about the direction that second year coach Ron Prince is taking the team. Prince had a strong first year which caused expectations to rise. They soared even higher after K-state knocked off Texas to start conference play. However, back to back upset losses has dropped the Wildcats to 5-5 and 3-4 within the Big 12. A win against a top tier club like Missouri would do wonders. This is the Wildcats' home finale and second last game overall. You may recall that last year, in that same situation, the Wildcats upset Texas, as +16 point underdogs. While the Tigers knocked off the Wildcats at Columbia last season, the Wildcats had won 13 straight series meetings prior to that, including a 36-28 win the last time the teams met here at Manhattan. The Tigers are a highly explosive team. In fact, I won't be surprised if they hand Kansas its first loss next week. However, with that massive game on deck, I won't be surprised if the Tigers get caught "looking ahead." Look for a big game from the Wildcats as they take things down to the wire and earn at least the cover.

Tim Trushel 20*

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pittsburgh

Larry Ness

Oklahoma Sooners v/s Memphis Tigers 11/15/2007 9:20:00 pm
The third-ranked Memphis Tigers take on the Oklahoma Sooners tonight at Madison Square Garden. Memphis returns all five starters from last year's team that posted a 33-4 overall record. There is not a single senior in the starting lineup and the fact that the club reached the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament last season despite its youth, is quite impressive. Oklahoma opened the season with three straight home games, all of which resulted in victory by at least 16 points. However, Memphis is "a horse of a different color!" The Tigers are loaded, with Douglas-Roberts leading Memphis in scoring with 23.5 PPG (also averages 8.5 RPG). Freshman PG Derrick Rose has lived up to "the hype" adding 19.0 PPG and the fact that he has only committed three turnovers in two games is a good sign for a young point guard. Memphis has limited its two opponents to 34.3 percent shooting from the field. Through three games, Blake Griffin is scoring 16.3 PPG on 65.5 percent shooting from the floor and is also pulling down 9.0 RPG to pace Oklahoma. Tony Crocker checks in with 12.7 PPG, Taylor Griffin at 11.3 PPG and the 6-11 Longar Longar (10.4-7.1 LY) is netting 11.0. The Sooners are scoring 83.3 PPG on 53.5 percent shooting from the field while limiting opponents to 54.7 PPG on 37.6 percent shooting efficiency. All that said, expect the Memphis to trouble Oklahoma and give the Tigers a double-digit win. Lay the points with Memphis.