NORTH COAST EARLY BIRD
Navy -15.5
NORTHCOAST BIG DOGS
North Carolina
Vandy
MississippiState
NewMexico
Pittsburg
Miami, FL
WesternMichigan
Pointwise Redsheet
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Rating:89 Clemson 37 Boston College 17
Rating:89 Kansas 58 Iowa St 13
Rating:88 Temple 27 Kent 17
Rating:88 North Carolina St 24 Wake Forest 23
Rating:88 Arkansas 41 Mississippi St 16
Rating:87 Central Mich,Memphis,Tulsa,Houston.
Pointwise Newsletter
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NCAA: C Mich 1*
.........Kansas 1*
.........Clemson 2*
.........Utah 3*
.........Mia Fl 4*
.........TCU 4*
.........Memphis 5*
........T Tech 5*
top play 1
lowest play 5
ASA
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College Football Picks
11/17/2007
1:00:00 PM ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (-11) over Mississippi State Bulldogs
ASA 4 STAR - This game is absolutely huge for the Razorbacks and they know it and will play accordingly. Arkansas is currently sitting at 6-4 on the season and needs a win over Mississippi State to ensure a bowl berth. The Hogs play at LSU in their season finale so know that this game will be their best chance of securing a postseason game. Expect Arkansas to get that win and get it big. The Razorbacks have an advantage in running the ball over every team but one as they are second in the country with 297 rushing yards per game. That advantage will be especially predominant in this game. Mississippi State is merely average in stopping the run but it has had an especially tough time stopping team that favor the run. The Bulldogs allowed 262 rushing yards in a 38-13 loss to West Virginia, 211 in a 33-21 loss to Tennessee and 198 in a 45-0 loss to LSU. Arkansas is a better rushing team than each of those squads and that will be evident in this one. Mississippi State picked up its biggest win in recent memory with its 17-12 upset of Alabama last week. Expect a major letdown this week. The Bulldogs have in-state rival Ole Miss in the regular season finale so be caught in a potential look-ahead situation as well. And Mississippi State is not a team that can afford to look ahead to anybody, especially when it’s on the road. The Bulldogs simply don’t have the offense to keep up with Arkansas. They are 113th in the country with just 289 total yards per game and can’t be expected to keep pace with Arkansas’s 13th-ranked scoring offense. The Hogs have been especially potent at home, where they are averaging 42.3 points per game on the season. Arkansas has owned this series recently with wins in eight straight meetings and 11 of the last 12 overall. The Hogs’ eight straight wins over Mississippi State have come by an average of 14.9 points and this game should match that average. Take Arkansas at home minus the points.
2:30:00 PM MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (+3) over Penn State Nittany Lions
ASA 4-Star Michigan State (+3) over Penn State Saturday – 2:30 pm CST
The Spartans became bowl eligible last week with their impressive 48-31 road win over Purdue last week. They can assure themselves a bowl berth with a win over Penn State in their home finale. Michigan State is just 2-5 SU in conference action this season but an argument could be made that it could be undefeated.
Two of Michigan State’s five Big Ten losses have come in overtime and the other three have come by a touchdown or less against top-25 teams Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan. And the two Spartan wins have come against bowl eligible teams Indiana and Purdue by an average of 21 points per game.
Last week’s win over Purdue was perhaps Michigan State’s most impressive offensive showing of the year. The Spartans may not have put up their highest yardage total of the season but they showed their best balance of the season. One of the best running teams already, quarterback Brian Hoyer threw for 266 yards, his third-highest total of the season, and two scores. That will prove very useful against Penn State’s stout defense.
The win over Purdue came on the heels of a fine, but ultimately losing, showing against rival Michigan the previous week. The Spartans held a 10-point lead over the Wolverines in the fourth quarter but fell apart down the stretch. That loss seemed to motivate the team against the Boilermakers and that motivation should carry over into this week’s game with Penn State.
Michigan State lost 17-13 at Penn State last year but easily covered the 19-point spread. Hoyer threw for 291 yards in that game but didn’t have the benefit of a running game. He will this year. The Spartans are 21st in the nation with 205.4 rushing yards per game behind the two-headed monster of Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick. Ringer has run for nearly 1,300 yards this season at 6.2 yards per carry while Caulcrick has run for 20 touchdowns, good for fourth in the country.
The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record while Penn State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games under the same scenario. Additionally, the Nittany Lions are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine Big Ten contests. Michigan State has played much better than its record indicates and that will continue in this game. Take the Spartans plus the points.
2:30:00 PM INDIANA HOOSIERS (+1.5) over Purdue Boilermakers
ASA 4-Star Indiana (+2.5) over Purdue Saturday – 2:30 pm CST
The Hoosiers are in a very similar position as Michigan State. They’re bowl eligible but a seventh win would all but assure a postseason game. Indiana hasn’t been to a bowl game since 1993 so it will be come into this game, its home finale, with extra incentive. Purdue already has a bowl berth locked up with seven wins so won’t be playing with nearly as much urgency as the Hoosiers.
The high-octane Indiana offense should be able to put big numbers on the board against a sieve-like Purdue defense. The Boilermaker defense has been especially bad on the road, where it is allowing 32.3 points per game. Indiana, meanwhile, has put up its best offensive numbers at home, where it is averaging 36.5 points in six games.
The Hoosiers’ well-balance offense should have no problem carving up a Purdue defense that allowed 48 points to a one-dimensional Michigan State offense last week. Indiana quarterback Kellen Lewis is one of the most dangerous players in the Big Ten and nation. He is second in the Big Ten and 19th in the nation with more than 295 total yards of offense per game. And Lewis does it with both is arm and his legs. On top of throwing for more than 2,600 yards, he has run for a team-best 623 yards and six scores.
Much of Purdue’s offensive success comes via the passing game. But, as Michigan State proved last week, disrupting Boilermaker quarterback Curtis Painter can severely limit the Purdue offense. The Spartans put constant pressure on Painter, which resulted in three sacks and two interceptions. Indiana boasts one of the fiercest pass rushes in the country with 3.5 sacks per game, good for fifth in the nation. The Hoosiers should be able to get to Painter and completely disrupt the Purdue offense.
Indiana has been great at home this season with a 3-2 SU record and 4-1 ATS mark. The Hoosiers have also shown a penchant for bouncing back as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Purdue, meanwhile, has made its living off of bad teams. It is just 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games against teams with a winning record and that will continue in this game. Take the Hoosiers at home plus the points.
6:45:00 PM CLEMSON TIGERS (-8.5) over Boston College Eagles
ASA Top Game - This battle for a shot at the ACC crown comes down to two teams going in very opposite directions. Clemson, unlike last year’s second-half collapse, has been playing its best football down the stretch. Boston College, on the other hand, has lost two straight games after climbing all the way to No. 2 in the polls. Expect both teams to continue to head in their respective directions in this one with Clemson picking up a big win. The Tigers are currently riding a four-game winning streak that has seen them win by an average of an astonishing 35 points per game. The run started with a 70-14 home win over Central Michigan followed by a 30-17 road win over Maryland, a 47-10 road win over Duke and a 44-10 home win over Wake Forest. The offense and defense have been equally strong with the offense averaging 47.8 points and the defense allowing just 12.8 points per game over that stretch. Boston College has completely fallen apart following its last-second, nationally-televised win over Virginia Tech three weeks ago. The Eagles have proceeded to lose back-to-back games, failing to cover by an average of 15.3 points per game. The defense, which had been strong all season, has allowed 34.5 points in the last two games. Look for Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper, who is 13th in the nation in passing efficiency, to tear up Boston College’s 109th-ranked pass defense. On the other side of the ball, look for the Eagles to struggle to move the ball. Their offense is almost completely predicated on moving the ball through the air but that will be no easy task against Clemson’s secondary. The Tigers are third in the country with just 161.8 passing yards allowed per game. Boston College is one of the worst rushing teams in the country so if it can’t throw the ball, and it won’t be able to, it won’t be able to move the ball at all. Clemson lost to Boston College in overtime in last year’s meeting so will be looking to exact some revenge in this year’s meeting. Expect the Tigers’ momentum to make the difference. They’ve won four straight while the Eagles have lost two straight. Take Clemson at home minus the points.
the pro source
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Georgia Tech -10 Blowout GOM
vs North Carolina Noon et
Ga Tech is in our system that predicts blowouts.
58-25-1 since 1990 ..70% for 17 seasons.
The system is 51-4-1 if our play on team scores 28(+)pts
N Car has allowed 31(+) in 4 of their 5 away games TY.
Rough spot for the Heels. They came up just short last
week at rival NC ST, and have nothing to play for here. It
would be better served for them to save up for their home
and season finale next week vs a beatable Duke team.
A lot to ask to get up for this 2nd straight road game vs
a tough defensive team like GT. The Jackets have one of
the top rated defenses in the country. Combined with an
offense that runs the ball very effectively, this should be a
pretty easy home win vs a team with nothing to play for.
Bonus stat has N Car HC Butch Davis 4-21 ATS when his
team fails to reach the 21 pt mark. Ga Tech allows just
15.6 ppg at home, N Car avgs just 17.6 ppg away & have
topped 16 pts just 2 of the last 7 gms.
Boise St - 33vs Idaho 2 et
Strong system, to Play ON home teams in this spread range
who are off a shut out win, and scored at least the amount
of points Boise scored in their win, and are playing a team
with Idaho's WL%....41-14-1, 75% thru 10 seasons.
Idaho is off a BYE, but in reality, they know they have no
chance this week. They will be looking ahead to next weeks
more realistically winnable home finale vs Utah St.
Bonus stats have Boise 7-2 in home finales
Idaho 1-6 in Gm 11, 0-5 away with rest, 2-9 as 21+ dogs.
Memphis U -11 ** TOP Play CUSA GOY **
vs UAB 3:30 et
One of our strong hot home team systems going that is
a stellar 43-20 S1990 . When our confident homer is a
favorite of 11(+) points, our 5 tiered system climbs to
34-9-1, 79% thru 17 seasons.
We also like to Play On any team coming off a SU win
as a dble digit dog in which they scored 28(+) pts, and
now are playing as a home favorite in this spread range.
25-10, 1983 ...71% for almost 25 yrs.
UAB has been outscored by a 172-54 mark in their last 4
games and allow almost 500 ypg on defense.
MU 8-3 vs losing teams, 7-3 wks 10 to 13, 6-1 off S Miss
Navy -15 vs N. Illinois 3:30 et
A system we have that is 4-2 TY, 22-11 since 1984.
67% for over 20 years....
N Illinois has not played well on the road, losing 4 in a row
SU and ATS. Navy will be relentless and will wear down the
Huskies as the game goes on. NIU averages just 18 ppg on
the road and will be fllat here, as they snapped a 5 gm slide
last week. With the 110th run "D", and having lost their last
2 roadies by a score of 114-24, they will be hard pressed to
stay in this facing a running attack that will not let up.
You can tell how hard it is for poor teams to contain Navy's
offense as Navy is 43-19 vs losing teams, 69% for 15 yrs.
This is Navy's home finale and the high powered offense will
run, and run,
Utah - 14
vs Wyoming 5:30 et
We're coming right back with another play on Utah.
They're playing so well, especially at home. Here we'll note
that Home Favorites in this spread range that are off a win
of 50(+) pts, are 22-6-2, 79% the last 30 chances. Also,
teams in their last home game playing with revenge off a
shutout win are 12-4-1 vs opponents off a SU win.
The Utes are rapidly rising, and are in a great spot. In the
2nd of BB home games and off their BYE the week prior. .
Most of the recent surge can be attributed to their stud QB
Brian Johnson back in and healthy. The Utes have won SIX
straight, 5 ATS. Their defense has played great with 4 sub
300 yd defensive gms the last 6 and they have not allowed
a TD in 9 qtrs of FB. New Mexico will be flat coming in off a
thrilling comeback win. NM needed a 43 yd FG on the final
play to seal a 26-23 win over CSU last Saturday.
Bonus stats have the home team riding a 7-0 ATS run with
Utah having won the last 3 at home in the series by 32 ppg .
Utah 16-3 as 11(+) home favs.
king creole
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Sat, 11/17/07 - 8:00 PMKing Creole | CFB Total
triple-dime bet344 Texas Tech / 343 Oklahoma Over 66.5 BetUS
Analysis: 8:00pm ET / BIG 12 Conference / ABC TV / OKLAHOMA SOONERS @ TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Special BONUS OU Play, also on King Creole's late-phone service:
1* OVER the TOTAL / BOSTON COLLEGE @ CLEMSON / 7:45pm ET (time change) / ESPN2 TV
Please make sure to get you play in ASAP as the OU line is going up. This one opened at 66 points. As we post this play, it's up to 67 points. Based on current game line and OU line, the projected final score in this game is OKLAHOMA 37.5 / TEXAS TECH 29.5.
Oklahoma should have NO problem whatsoever eclipsing 40 or more points in this game. They take on a very poor Red Raider defense that just allowed 59 points last week to Texas. Against the Big 12 teams with high-octane offenses, the Red Raiders have allowed 59 pts, 41 pts, and 49 pts this year (Texas - Missouri - Okla St). That's 50 PPG. The Sooners are averaging 45 PPG in all games this year, so all they need is their average to go OVER our "team goal' of 40 points. The impact of Thursday night's upset loss by OREGON in College Football (by Arizona) also plays a big angle in this game. All three BIG 12 teams who are ranked in the BCS Top Five are now very much alive in the National Title picture. And how does a team MOVE UP in the BCS rankings? By MARGIN of victory..... that's how. So now Oklahoma has even MORE incentive to RUN UP THE SCORE even if they are comfortably ahead in this game. Therefore, an Oklahoma point total of 60 or more points would not surprise us in the least. And with an offense that can do it on the ground (191 rushing YPG) OR in the air (268 passing YPG by QB Sam Bradford), we have the necessary weapons to achieve our goal.
BIG 12 teams playing off 4 STRAIGHT double-digit SU wins (like the Sooners) have gone 28-5-1 O/U since the 2003 season. Put our "play ON" team on the ROAD... as a FAV... vs an opponent off a DD SU Loss (like the Red Raiders), and you get a result of 14-0-1 O/U in the same time frame.
On the flip-side, we get a Big 12 home team that is putting up 42 PPG in the Red Raiders of TEXAS TECH. Our "team goal" for them is 30 points. In all home games over the last three years, Tech averages 45 PPG. Throw out the non-conference results and you still get an average of 39 PPG. Texas Tech is ranked NUMBER ONE (#!) in overall offense for the season (543 YPG)... is #1 in passing offense (481 passing YPG)... and #6 in scoring offense (42 PPG). Of special note is the Red Raiders' prowess thru the air. I mention this because it is the one achilles heel that the Oklahoma defense has. They can INDEED be passed on as they allow more than 230 passing YPG. The Sooners have had problems all season defending the pass. Even at home they couldn't really contain Chase Daniel of Missouri (41-31 final score / another OVER winner for us). OU won by pretty much outscoring the Tigers. And they just barely held on against Texas. Then last week, they had over 400 yards put on them by Baylor, who is by far the worst team in the Big 12. The problem isn't so much OU's pass rush, but their secondary scheme (with tons of youth and inexperience). OU has used the same schemes for years and I think the opposing Big 12 coaches are now starting to figure it out. Texas Tech had some success against this defense last season when the game was played in Norman. They actually had the lead on OU going into the fourth quarter. And that was against a much greener Tech QB Harrell last season. This season, when Oklahoma has allowed 200 or more passing yards in a game (which is a GIVEN on Saturday), they are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in home or away games.
Our Database queries and OU models suggest that this game will have at the very minimum: 77 points or more scored. The average simulation based on all numbers for this game is: OKLAHOMA 48 / TEXAS TECH 38.
johnny detroit --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sat, 11/17/07 - 5:35 PMJohnny Detroit | CFB Side
dime bet378 Utah -15.0 (-110) Bodog vs 377 New Mexico
Analysis: Last week our sources were on Clemson as their strongest "blowout of the week". This week the order has come in on Utah. We are 35-24 in CFB going down the stretch and look for this game to be an "ass-whooping" from start to finish. Take Utah to destroy New Mexico on Saturday.
fairway jay 20* sec total GOY
arkansas under
teddy covers 20* mountain west GOY
san diego st
joe atkins
10* bowling green over
ethan law game of the month
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Sat, 11/17/07 - 1:00 PM Ethan Law | CFB Side
double-dime bet330 Buffalo 0.0 (-110) Bodog vs 329 Bowling Green
Analysis: BOWLING GREEN (6-4) at BUFFALO (4-6)
We are going to turn our attention to one of the least looked at games on the board in terms on numbers of bets placed on this contest and hope to find a nice selection with some nice value. As usual, Bowling Green (6-4 SU & 4-4 ATS) has a very potent passing offense, averaging 31 points and 300 yards in the air per game. They are led by sophomore quarterback Tyler Sheehan who has played well and his wide receivers are among the best in the MAC with Freddie Barnes, Chris Wright and Marques Parks, however they will be without the services of their star running back/wide receiver Eric Ransom (knee) who is out indefinitely. Ransom had emerged as Bowling Greens top running back, so his absence could be a big blow considering that they would become very one dimensional. Like most of the teams in the MAC, their defense has been a big concern this season as they are giving up a whipping 34 points per game, with many of those points coming due to the fact that their rushing defense is atrocious. Indeed, in last week's 39-32 win at Eastern Michigan, they gave up a whopping 269 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Buffalo has the situational advantage here having had two weeks to prepare for this home contest and the Bulls are 4-2 in the MAC East, battling Miami of Ohio for first place. Buffalo (4-6 SU & 6-4 ATS) has an improving offense with quarterback Drew Willy and running back RB James Starks running the show. Buffalo scored 31 on Ohio, 43 on Toledo and 28 on Miami of Ohio the last game. Unfortunately they lost 31-28 to Miami, giving their division title hopes a bit of a setback. On defense, Buffalo has been much better the Bowling Green allowing 11 points fewer at just 23 points per contest and 3.9 yards per carry in MAC play.
When the opening line came out on this contest I was very surprised to Buffalo open up as a home underdog. Indeed, Buffalo is undefeated in MAC play at home this season and this will be their final home game of the season adding to the motivational edge to the Bulls. Despite the loss to Miami of Ohio last weekend, lets not forget that this is still a Buffalo team that nevertheless has an outside shot at the MAC East title if they win their next two contests. On paper, Buffalo has played a much tougher schedule, and have showed well against superior programs. On paper, they also have the superior defense and rushing attack, so Buffalo should definitely be able to control the time of possession and win the running battle. These teams have 4 common opponents, and the Bulls have superior stats against those opponents in 3 out of 4 games. The word on the street is that Buffalo possession the MAC's 12th best pass defense, but that fact is a bit misleading when you consider that they have only allowed two 300-yard games so far with a win (Toledo) in one of those games. While the Falcon offense might be humming it's not doing much to stop decent ground games, and Buffalo has found a lot of success running the ball on bad teams. With the extra preparation, the motivational and fundamental edges its hard to believe that there is a better play on the board this Saturday. Simply put the wrong team is favored in this contest.
Verdict: Bowling Green 24, Buffalo 31
PLAY 2* UNITS ON BUFFALO PICKEM
gameday 4* gow
florida state..
randy white -cowboy club goy
missouri
ron raymond
5 units oklahoma -8
mel stewart
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BLOWOUT of the Week
Boise St. -33
1-9 vs 9-1
They are 6-2 ATS when laying 24 or more vs WAC.
Boise St. will not stop.
Bonus stats have Boise 7-2 in home finales
Idaho 1-6 in Gm 11, 0-5 away with rest, 2-9 as 21+ dogs