TEDDY COVERS:
11/17/07 CFB 20* Big Ticket: San Diego State +11 (335)
ANALYSIS:
One of my favorite late season betting strategies is to support improving teams that are way underneath the national radar. These teams invariably were lousy in September, coming into the season with low expectations, and then achieving those low expectations. The betting marketplace adjusts much slower to late season improvement than it does to early season failures. And that, folks, is the only reason that we’re catching double digits with an ascending San Diego State team here, making this play worthy of Big Ticket status.
Air Force hasn’t had a bye this season, playing in their 12th consecutive ballgame. For a thin team like the Falcons, depth is most assuredly an issue at this time of the year. And, for a team that lacks depth and extraordinary athleticism, we can expect a tired, banged up Air Force squad to take the field this Saturday. Air Force has already clinched their bowl bid. They are coming off back-2-back emotional victories over Notre Dame and Army in their last two ballgames. They’ve covered the number in six straight games, forcing the linesmakers to ratchet up their pointspreads higher and higher.
Last year, in their final two games favored by more than a touchdown, Air Force lost outright. This year, they’ve only been favored by more than a TD once, against a hapless Army squad. Even in that game, Air Force struggled to cover the number. Air Force was favored by 5.5 points over UNLV at home a few weeks back. San Diego State just beat UNLV in Las Vegas, but they are double digit favorites here. Hence the aforementioned pointspread value on the Aztecs, on full display.
San Diego State was terrible in September, exactly what they were expected to be in Chuck Long’s second season at the helm. But we saw them eke out a straight up road win at Colorado State as 13 point underdogs in early October. Then the Aztecs had New Mexico beaten before a late fumble from QB Kevin O’Connell cost them the victory. That loss could have spoiled their season, but instead, San Diego State came together as a team. O’Connell rallied the Aztecs from 21 down to beat Wyoming, then led them to a 38-30 road win at UNLV last week. This is an emerging late season squad, exactly the type of squad that offers the most pointspread value here in November. San Diego State already has a pair of straight up wins as a road underdog this season. Their only loss by more than a field goal since the beginning of October came at Utah, a far superior squad to the one they’ll face on Saturday. San Diego State beat Air Force outright as a ten point underdog last year, 19-12. Don’t be shocked if we see a similar final score on Saturday. Big Ticket: (#335) Take San Diego State.
11/17/07 CFB Michigan +4 (370)
ANALYSIS:
There is not a significant talent gap between Michigan and Ohio State. Both teams rank in the top 10 annually in terms of their recruiting class. Both schools routinely send players to the NFL upon graduation. And historically, we don’t see many extended winning or losing streaks in this annual battle for Big 10 supremacy. There are no inherent structural reasons for the Buckeyes recent dominance in the series (three straight wins and five victories in the last six years).
Both the Wolverines and the Buckeyes lost last Saturday, but the two losses could not have been more different in terms of their implications. Michigan went up to Madison and lost a ‘throwaway’ game to the Badgers. Chad Henne didn’t play after the first quarter; Mike Hart didn’t play at all. Lloyd Carr knew full well that the Big 10 title and a trip to the Rose Bowl came down to this week’s game, with last week’s game irrelevant to the big picture. In the great tradition of Lou Holtz, Carr was sandbagging, holding his best back for this week’s game. Last week’s loss affects the Wolverines in only one way – it gives us a great pointspread to bet on them this week.
Ohio State saw their national championship dreams shattered with a home loss to Illinois. A team that had played above their heads all year, on a mission to put last year’s national championship game debacle behind them, just saw those redemption dreams collapse. Teams coming off their first loss of the season here in November make for horrible road favorites the following week – just ask anyone who bet Arizona State or Boston College last week. I expect it to be very difficult for the Buckeyes to bounce back from that defeat with a spread covering victory this time around. Michigan’s seniors have never won a bowl game or beaten Ohio State, closing the season on a two game losing streak in each of the last three years. Since the start of spring camp, this group of Michigan seniors have talked of nothing else – the entire season has been in preparation for this one ballgame. Expect both Hart and Henne to play, and play effectively. Lloyd Carr is likely to announce his retirement after the game. The stakes and the motivation could not be bigger for this live home underdog, making them a clear choice to support with our betting dollars on Saturday. (#370) Take Michigan.
11/17/07 CFB Louisiana Tech -5.5 (382)
ANALYSIS:
It hasn’t been a pretty year for Dick Tomey and the San Jose St Spartans. After shocking the country with a nine win season for a perennial losing program last year, the Spartans have regressed mightily in ’07, entering this game with a 4-6 record. While the Spartans come into this game off an impressive 51-17 win over hapless New Mexico State last week, don’t expect that success to translate to this week’s test at Louisiana Tech.
Prior to their win over the Aggies last week, the Spartans had lost their previous two games by a combined score of 72-7. On the road this year, San Jose has lost by 20 or more five times in six games, the lone win and pointspread cover coming against 0-10 Utah State. Those results are typical for teams that can’t run the football. Since last year’s 1000 yard rusher Yonus Davis got hurt, San Jose State’s offense has been completely one dimensional. As a team, they haven’t rushed for 1000 yards this year, in the bottom 10 nationally both in yards per rushing attempt and in total rushing yards, bad news for any team trying to grind out clock and stay competitive in a hostile road environment.
Louisiana Tech went 3-10 last year, and started out this season with a 2-5 mark in their first seven games. The two wins came against FCS Central Arkansas, and by one point, in come-from-behind fashion in a non-spread covering effort against the same New Mexico State team that just got blown out by San Jose St. But the Bulldogs have shown some real fight since, beating Utah State and Idaho by double digits behind a balanced attack that produced more than 200 rushing and 200 passing yards in each of those two wins. Derek Dooley’s squad has clearly improved since the start of the season, giving us the necessary value to back them here. Senior quarterback Zac Champion may not live up to his moniker, but he is a savvy general behind center. Champion has dramatically improved from where he was last year, with his interceptions cut from 18 as a junior to just 9 as a senior. Running backs Patrick Johnson and Dan Porter have nearly 1400 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns between them. But this bet is on the Bulldogs defense as much as it’s on their offense. La Tech has held five of their last seven opponents to 24 points or less, the only exceptions coming against powerhouses LSU and Boise State. They dominated San Jose St on the Spartans last trip to Ruston, winning 31-14. A similar result should be expected here. (#382) Take Louisiana Tech.
11/17/07 CFB South Florida -8 (386)
ANALYSIS:
There haven’t been many teams more disappointing than Louisville this season. Touted as potential national championship contenders coming into the season, the Cardinals haven’t even approached the tremendous heights that this program achieved under Bobby Petrino, In four years under Petrino’s tutelage, the Cardinals won at least nine games each season, finishing with a Top 20 ranking in ‘04, ’05 and ’06. But Petrino bolted for the lure of NFL dollars in the offseason, and his replacement, Steve Kragthorpe, simply wasn’t prepared for the jump from Conference USA to the Big East. Right now, Louisville is sitting at 5-5, with a sub .500 record in conference play, a whopping disappointment for an underachieving team. History clearly shows us that these type of teams are not likely to bounce back with a strong late season run.
Don’t be fooled by the relatively tight final score of Louisville’s most recent loss, at West Virginia last Saturday, The Cardinals were able to hang around largely because of Mountaineer mistakes, like their three second half fumbles. They still gave up 38 points to West Virginia, and could give up even more this week, because their defense is an injury plagued disaster area right now. Louisville had only 25 healthy defensive players last week, and lost a few more to injury during the game – their depth is woefully thin, and their talent level is rather thin as well, bad news for a warm day in South Florida. The Cardinals were forced into nickel defensive sets last week because they didn’t have enough healthy linebackers to take the field. That approach simply isn’t going to work against the Bulls power rushing attack. To make matters even worse for Louisville, their offense has become completely one-dimensional in recent weeks. The Cardinals have no running game these days, held under 100 yards rushing in five of their last seven games. Louisville has only one game in those seven where they managed to run for more than 3.1 yards per carry. In other words, if they can’t throw the football, they can’t win. South Florida is ranked #9 in the country in pass efficiency defense and with sackmeister George Selvie dominating the line of scrimmage, they are #1 in the country in tackles for loss. We saw South Florida hold Louisville to 14 points on their last visit to this field, and a similar result here would be no surprise. The Bulls snapped their three game losing streak with a resounding win at Syracuse last week, gaining 346 of their 582 total yards on the ground. The starters sat out the fourth quarter and South Florida still won 41-10. No surprise here if we see a similar final score in this one. (#386) Take South Florida.
Pointwise Phones
4* NC St., Arkansas
3* Kansas, Central Michigan, TCU, Northwestern, Clemson, Oklahoma St., Houston
2* Pitt.
xsports
#322 - NCAA - 3 units on Cincinnati +7 -120
#346 - NCAA - 5 units on Kansas -26
#364 - NCAA - 3 units on Mississippi +19.5
#374 - NCAA - 3 units on Clemson -6.5 -120
#378 - NCAA - 3 units on Utah -14.5
#386 - NCAA - 4 units on South Florida -6.5 -120
Nationwide (goldst) :
Top: Mich St,
Reg: Conn, Ore St Under, Md, N Mex, Nc St
Private Players :
5*
Wash St
4*
clem
Pitt
3*
Iowa St
Nc St
Inside Info :
3*
gt
Hou
2*
New Mex
Big Money:
Georgia
Scott Spreitzer
Game of Year
Arkansas
nevada club-
tulsa
andy iskoe-
clemson
glen mcgrew
best bet - san diego st
reed harris
conf. usa GOY
houston u.
sports reporter
4* wiscy, florida st.
3* utah u .over
computer consensus
100% play
temple
JIM KRUUGER - NCAA FOOTS
# 370 Michigan +4 over Ohio State - Silver 4* 1.5 Unit Play
# 326 Indiana +1.5 over Purdue - Bronze 3*
# 335 San Diego State +11 over Air Force - Bronze 3*
# 386 South Florida -8.5 over Louisville - Bronze 3*
# 383 NC State +6 over Wake Forest - Bronze 3*