CKO
11 *VANDERBILT over Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
*VANDERBILT 32 - Wake Forest 23
Southern CKO sources report veteran, smartly-coached Vandy has been able to quickly shake off painful 25-24 come-from-ahead loss vs. rival Tennessee (FG kicker missed 3 of 4!) in preparation for "monumental" match vs. Wake Forest. After all, 'Dores become bowl eligible with their 1st non-losing season since 1982 with victory here! We like their chances. Vandy's well-balanced attack, directed by more careful QB Adams (4 TDs, no ints. last 2 games) will do damage vs. penetrable WF defense which has allowed 36 pts. or more in 3 road games in '07. And after facing a challenging trio of gifted, rifle-armed QBs in Tebow, Woodson & Ainge over past 3 weeks, swift, gang-tackling Vandy defense (just 19 ppg in 5 home games) will be prepared for Deacons less-dynamic aerial game generating fewer than 200 ypg (only 10 TDP). Moreover, 'Dores won't be fooled by Grobe's myriad of misdirection plays, having upset Deacons 24-20 in Winston-Salem in '05
Ferringo
4-Unit Play. Take #150 Kentucky (-3) over Tennessee (1:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
It is always a huge red flag when an unranked team is favored over a ranked team. Tennessee is 1-3 on the road this year and got hammered by Alabama, California, and Florida. Kentucky has been the whipping boy in this series but are good enough to turn the tide. UK has covered three of four in this one and I’m looking for a double-digit win.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #133 Missouri (+2) over Kansas (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 23)
I believe that the Tigers are the better, more battle-tested team here and that playing in their home state is going to give them all the advantage they need. This is a value play, getting us the better team with the points, and I will be on the moneyline on this game as well.
3-Unit Play. Take #144 South Carolina (+3) over Clemson (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
Clemson had its bubble burst last weekend and I think that with two weeks to prepare Steve Spurrier is going to have his charges ready to roll in this rivalry game. The Tigers have owned this matchup recently but I think that this is a better USC team than we’ve seen in some time. This is also a statement about the SEC being better than the ACC.
3-Unit Play. Take #173 Ball State (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
These are two teams heading in opposite directions and Ball State has absolutely dominated on the road in this series. The Cardinals have been one of the best bets in college football this year and I think they make a statement win here to give themselves better positioning for a bowl game. NIU wants to throw the ball and play a high-scoring affair. That plays right into BSU's hands.
2-Unit Play. Take #190 Stanford (-3.5) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
Even though the Irish managed a win over feeble Duke last week I still think they are one of the worst teams in Division I. Stanford is no prize, but you know they’ve had this game circled and any team with the talent to beat USC is good enough to beat this Notre Dame squad.
Nelly's 10-Star GOY #188 @Virginia (+3.5) vs. Virginia Tech – 11:00 am CST
This game will decide the fate of the ACC Coastal division and both squads have put together excellent seasons at 9-2. Virginia Tech has rebounded from a devastating blowout loss to LSU early in the season to win eight of nine games with the one loss in that span coming in a miraculous comeback by Boston College. The Hokies have cruised the last three weeks but the offense is averaging just 326 yards per game with an extremely limited vertical passing game and after back-to-back big wins the Hokies are forced to go on the road to face in-state rival Virginia in a tough situation.
The Hokies are getting by with a two-QB system with incumbent starter Glennon leading the pass attack and freshmen QB Taylor adding a rushing element. Despite impressive numbers on the scoreboard the last two weeks, the Hokies offense has not received great production from the offense with Glennon completing less than 50 percent of his passes in those games and Taylor is a one-dimensional threat with only two games this season with over 90 yards passing. The Virginia Tech running game has lacked the success of past Tech squads and RB Ore has not gained over 100 yards in any game this season. The Hokies offensive line has been one of the worst in the conference at protecting the QB, which has been a big part of the weak passing numbers. Virginia Tech is known for defense and special teams and the numbers are impressive on the season. The Tech schedule has only featured two good rushing teams all season however, LSU gained over 300 rushing yards in a blowout win and Georgia Tech rushed the ball effectively with 105 yards against the Hokies but six turnovers led to a win for Virginia Tech.
Virginia does not have great overall numbers running the ball due to a horrible first game effort but the Cavs have rushed for at least 120 yards in eight of the last ten games and RB Mikell Simpson has become a big part of the offense since the injury to starter Peerman. Despite marginal scoring numbers, Virginia’s offense has gained over 300 yards in every game since the opener, something Virginia Tech has failed to do six times this season through similar ACC schedules. Tech prides itself on creating turnovers but the Hokies have been extremely fortunate, going +18 in the last eight games in turnover margin. Virginia has turned the ball over just 16 times all season, one of the lowest figures in the nation. QB Jameel Sewell is now 100 percent healthy and he provides superior passing skills to either Virginia Tech QB with decent rushing ability as well. In his second season as a starter Sewell has eleven touchdown passes and over 230 rushing yards while leading the Cavs on several game-winning drives. Virginia’s defense has posted numbers just as strong as Tech’s, allowing just 17 points per game while getting at least two sacks in every game this season. Virginia is a team that has refused to lose, winning six games by less than a touchdown.
The situation definitely favors the Cavaliers as Virginia Tech is coming off deceptively convincing wins against the two marquee programs in the ACC, Florida State and Miami. Both games were actually much closer than the final score indicated as Tech scored 34 4th quarter points in the two games. With a big emphasis on winning those two games, a letdown after a the big home win over former Big East rival Miami is likely to occur as the Hokies are 2-4 ATS in the last six years in the game following the Miami game. Virginia has had two weeks to prepare for this huge game and also has the memory of a shutout loss at Virginia Tech last season in its mind. Virginia has survived several close calls this season but the record is impressive, including four wins on the road. Virginia gets the opportunity to play a home underdog this week, a situation they have covered in twelve of the last 13 opportunities. The Cavs also fit several impressive systems for teams in final home games including a nearly 80 percent system for teams off bye weeks and a revenge system hitting over 70 percent over the last 25 years including a perfect 5-0 this season. Since Al Groh took over the Virginia program the Cavs are 34-9 S/U at home and he can lead Virginia to one of its biggest wins ever Saturday.
POINT TRAIN 10* GOY
11/24/2007
12:30:00 PM KENTUCKY WILDCATS(-2.5)
over Tennessee Volunteers
KENTUCKY (-) over Tennessee at 1:30 pm EST
**Point Train** The Wildcats have struggled since their upset of current-No. 1 LSU but will return to form this week in their rivalry game with their neighbors to the south, Tennessee. Few people remember the Kentucky team that started 5-0 and beat the supposedly unbeatable Tigers from the Bayou. But the Train remembers that team and that’s the team that will show up for this game.
The Vols aren’t nearly as good as their four-game winning streak might suggest. Each of those four wins came at home and two of them (against South Carolina and Vanderbilt) came in the final minutes. Going on the road has been a completely different story for Tennessee. It has gone just 1-3 ATS away from home this year, with those three losses coming by a whopping 25.7 points per game. The Vols got demolished at Cal, Florida and ‘Bama. This game will be no different.
Kentucky may not have beaten Tennessee in 22 years but those records can be thrown out in this game. The Wildcats are 4-2 ATS at home this year, including their 6-point win over LSU as 10-point dogs earlier this year. If they can beat LSU, they can sure beat Tennessee. With an 11-5 ATS mark in its last 16 games, Kentucky is the play in this game. Take the ‘Cats.
11/24/2007
2:30:00 PM WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (-18)
over Connecticut Huskies
ASA 6-Star West Virginia (-18) over Connecticut Saturday – 2:30 pm CST
A lot of experts wrote West Virginia off following its 21-13 loss to South Florida earlier this year. That was a mistake. The Mountaineers have since rebounded with five straight wins to propel themselves to No. 3 in the BCS rankings. Kansas, the team in front of West Virginia at No. 2, has two tough games left on its schedule and is due for a loss. The Mountaineers know that if they win out, and do it convincingly, they have a great shot at going to the National Championship game. Look for a big blowout in this game.
The West Virginia offense has carried the team over the past few years but the defense has caught up with the offense this year. The Mountaineers are equally strong against both the run and the pass as they are 13th in the country with just 93 rushing yards allowed per game and 18th with just 195.6 passing yards allowed per game. This defensive balance has led to the fourth-best total defense in the nation and the eighth-best scoring defense with just 17.3 points allowed per game.
For all of Connecticut’s success this season, it simply isn’t a good offense. The Huskies are just 86th in the country in total offense and don’t do anything particularly well. They’ve won based almost solely on strong efforts from their defense. But they haven’t played an offense like West Virginia’s yet.
The Mountaineers are third in the nation with 289.4 rushing yards per game, with the troika of quarterback Pat White and running backs Steve Slaton and Noel Devine providing a nearly impossible three-pronged attack. White and Slaton have combined for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns while Devine has chipped in with 390 yards on nearly 10 yards per carry. West Virginia may not pass for a lot of yards but it is very efficient with its passing game as it is 11th in the nation in passing efficiency. This balance has led to 39.2 points per game this year.
West Virginia has never lost to Connecticut, going 3-0 both SU and ATS since the Huskies joined Big East play. The Mountaineers have won those three games by an average of 23.3 points per game and have covered by more than a touchdown per meeting. With the national championship in its sight, expect West Virginia to send a message with a blowout win. Take the Mountaineers at home minus the points.
Bobby
3 Star Selection
PITTSBURGH 23 S. Florida (-10.0) 24
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
South Florida came through with a 55-17 win over Louisville as a 4-Star Best Bet last week, but that win sets the Bulls up in a very negative 12-51 ATS road favorite letdown situation this week. Pittsburgh is certainly good enough defensively to keep this game tight and teams with a good defense are pretty good bets as big double-digit underdogs. The Panthers, in fact, are 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog of 10 points or more, including a 24-17 upset home win as a 10 point home dog to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has allowed just 4.5 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team and that unit is just as good as South Florida's well publicized stop unit that has also yielded just 4.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl. The difference in these teams is offense (Pitt is 0.9 yppl worse than average while South Florida is 0.4 yppl better than average) and turnovers (USF is +12 in turnover margin while Pitt is -5). My math model does project a 76 yards and 0.9 yppl advantage for South Florida in this game but you can't expect South Florida to continue to be as fortunate in the turnover department as they've been in recent games. My math model favors USF by just 8 points in this game and the situation against the Bulls is very strong. South Florida is an impressive 40-28-1 ATS lifetime in all games, but the Bulls are 0-5 ATS in conference road games following consecutive victories, which verifies the flat spot they are in today.I'll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 2-Stars from +9 down to +7 points.
3 Star Selection
Miami Ohio 33 OHIO (-2.0) 25
11:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Miami-Ohio has locked up a trip to the MAC Championship game but the Redhawks still havent become bowl eligible as a loss in this game coupled with a loss to Central Michigan in the MAC title game would leave Miami with a losing record and no bowl game. The Redhawks also have a score to settle with rival Ohio, who won last years game 34-24. Miami applies to a 36-5 ATS subset of an 87-29 ATS revenge situation and my math model favors Miami-Ohio by a point in this game so we have a little line value to go with the good situation. I'll take Miami-Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2- Stars at pick or -1.
3 Star Selection
NORTH CAROLINA (-14.0) 38 Duke 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
North Carolina is a much better team than their 3-8 record indicates and the Tarheels will finally get to show off their talents against a horrible Duke squad that has lost 5 consecutive games by 17 points or more (0-5 ATS) and just lost by 21 points to a horrible Notre Dame team. North Carolina has averaged 5.2 yards per play this season while their solid defensive unit had yielded just 5.1 yppl and the Tarheels have outplayed a schedule that rates at 3.4 points better than average. The teams that North Carolina has faced would out-gain an average team 5.5 yppl to 5.1 yppl, so the Tarheels rate at 0.1 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively. Duke has faced a schedule of teams that is slightly worse than North Carolina's compensated numbers and the Blue Devils have been out-gained 4.3 yppl to 6.1 yppl by those teams - and Duke's defense is 0.2 yppl worse since losing their best defensive lineman Patrick Bailey 5 games ago. My math model projects a 209 total yards advantage for UNC in this game and the Tarheels have a solid special teams edge. Duke is also 6-16 ATS under coach Ted Roof when they are not an underdog of more than 14 points and the only times they cover in that role is if the opponent is coming into the game on a winning streak (Duke is 3-15 ATS in that pointspread range if the opponent is not off 2 wins). The math model favors North Carolina by 24 ½ points in this game and gives the Tarheels a 62% chance of covering at -14 points based on past predictability of my math model. The Tarheels would still be worthy of a Best Bet up to -16 ½ points (57%). I'll take North Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars from -14 to -16 points and the Tarheels would be a Strong Opinion at -17 points (55.3% chance of covering).
3 Star Selection
Alabama 23 AUBURN (-6.0) 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Alabama was caught looking ahead to this rivalry game and lost straight up to UL Monroe as a 24 point home favorite. A 6-5 record and a loss to a Sun Belt team is not exactly what Alabama fans envisioned with Nick Saban signed on as the coach of the Tide. However, a win over bitter rival Auburn will surely help heal some wounds and I expect the Crimson Tide to play their best game of the season today. Alabama applies to a very strong 64-14 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last weeks upset loss and Auburn applies to a negative 17-48 ATS team off a late season bye angle. Underdogs of more than 4 points are 11-3-1 ATS in this rivalry and Alabamas loss last week has supplied us with a little line value (my math model favors Auburn by just 4 points). I'll take Alabama in a 3- Star Best Bet at +4 points or more, for 4-Stars at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 or +3 points.
2 Star Selection
**STANFORD (-3.5) 26 Notre Dame 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Notre Dame finally recorded a legitimate win last week, as they beat a horrible Duke team 28-7 while out-gaining the Blue Devils 5.3 yards per play to 3.6 yppl. Notre Dames other win at UCLA was a complete fluke, as they got 7 turnovers from the Bruins 3rd string quarterback and won despite only gaining 140 total yards. My math model actually favored Notre Dame by 9 ½ points in that game, which tells you how bad Duke is. Stanford may be the worst team in the Pac-10, but the Cardinal are not that bad on a national scale and they should be favored by at least 10 points in this game. Stanfords offense has averaged only 4.5 yppl this season, but the Cardinal have faced teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yppl to an average team and they rate at just 0.2 yppl worse than average with Tavita Pritchard at quarterback. Notre Dames defense is 0.7 yppl better than average so the Irish have a 0.9 yppl advantage over Stanfords offense. That advantage won't be enough since the Irish are 1.8 yppl worse than average offensively (3.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while Stanfords defense is only 0.3 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to a schedule of good offensive teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team). So, the Cardinal have a 1.5 yppl advantage over Notre Dames offense. Notre Dame does have 1.4 points edge in projected turnovers, but Stanford has a huge edge in special teams and my math model favors the Cardinal by 11 points in this game and gives them a 59.3% chance of covering based on the historical predictability of my math model. Some of you may think that Notre Dames offense is improving based on the 96 points that they've scored in their last 3 games, but the Irish only averaged 4.4 yppl in those games against Navy, Air Force, and Duke“ who would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average offensive team. So, Notre Dames offense has been 2.0 yppl worse than average in those 3 games, which is actually a bit worse than their season rating of -1.8 yppl. The Irish are just as bad as they've been all season and Stanford will enjoy taking a break from the nations 3rd toughest schedule. Stanfords only game against a team at Notre Dames level resulted in a 37-0 win over San Jose State and I see a pretty comfortable win for the Cardinal in this game. I'll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less.
2 Star Selection
**WEST VIRGINIA (-17.5) 38 Connecticut 12
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Connecticuts 9-2 record will certainly get the attention of West Virginias players and the Mountaineers will be motivated by the potential for a National Championship game appearance. The Mounties apply to a very strong 34-6-1 ATS subset of a 91-37-2 ATS situation that plays on teams with one or fewer losses late in the season and I expect West Virginias top game today. Connecticut is certainly no pushover, as they have a solid defense (4.7 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and take care of the ball (quarterback Lorenzen has thrown just 5 interceptions). However, the Huskies have benefited from 21 defensive interceptions in 11 games and they cannot depend on such good fortune against a quarterback in Patrick White that has thrown only 3 interceptions in 10 games this season. Connecticuts good defense also doesn't match up well with a run-oriented West Virginia attack, as the Huskies are great against the pass and just average defending the run (4.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.4 yprp against an average team). The Huskies strong pass defense won't do them much good in this game, as Patrick White will simply take off an run if he does'nt find anyone open (White has 984 yards on 141 rushing plays). West Virginia averaged 6.8 yards per play against a good Rutgers defense with similar characteristics, as the Scarlet Knights are also very good defending the pass and just average against the run. Connecticuts offense is a bit worse than average and I dont see them doing much damage against a good West Virginia stop unit that has yielded just 4.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. My math model takes into account the favorable match-up for West Virginias offense and favors the Mountaineers by 19 points. I only need a fair line to play the strong angle favoring the Mounties and I'll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -19 points or less and for 3-Stars at -17 points or less (-115 odds or less) .
Strong Opinion
Miami Fla 21 BOSTON COLLEGE (-14.5) 30
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Miami Florida failed to cover at Virginia Tech last week despite being in a very favorable situation. The Hurricanes once again apply to a very strong situation a 64-11 ATS blowout bounce-back situation while Boston College applies to a negative 15-59 ATS double-digit home favorite letdown situation that is based on their upset win at Clemson last week. Boston College has clinched a berth in the ACC Championship game and it may be tough for the Eagles to get up for a team that has lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. Boston College does have revenge, but that was under a different coach and the Eagles always have revenge against Miami (they haven't beaten them since 1982) and it never seems to matter. My math model favors Boston College by 13 points, so Miamis recent bad play has supplied us with a little line value. Miami can become bowl eligible with a win today and the Hurricanes are still playing hard (their defense allowed a respectable 5.3 yppl to Virginia Tech but they were hurt by a -3 turnover margin). I realize that its not easy to bet on a Miami team that has allowed 92 points in their last two games, but teams with a win percentage of .333 or higher are actually 47-25-1 ATS after losing back-to-back games in which they allowed 41 points or more in each game, and the Hurricanes still have a better than average defense (5.1 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The line is fair and the situation is strongly in favor of Miami and I should be betting this game. I just can't seem to pull the trigger and make the Hurricanes a Best Bet, so I will consider Miami a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I'll make the Hurricanes a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.
Strong Opinion
FLORIDA (-13.5) 40 Florida St. 21
02:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Florida has slipped up a couple of times this season and lost to teams that they should have beaten (Auburn and Georgia), but the Gators are still one of the very best teams in the nation. No team has a better offense than Floridas attack, which has averaged 7.1 yards per play and 43 points per game against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl and 24 points per game to an average team. Florida State is only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team), which is actually the average level of defense that the Gators have faced this year (so scoring around their average of 43 points should be expected). The Gators do have a problem defending the pass, allowing 6.4 yards per pass play to teams that would aveage 5.9 yppp against an average team, but they stuff the run (3.7 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp) and Drew Weatherford is not likely to fully exploit Floridas secondary given that he is a below average passer that rarely throws the ball down the field (hes averaged a modest 6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback while throwing for an average of just 11.4 yards per completion). Overall, Floridas defense is 0.2 yppl better than average while Florida States offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average with Weatherford at quarterback (the Seminoles rushing attack has mustered only 4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team). My math model favors Florida by 20 points in this game and there are situations that favor both sides in this game. The stronger situation favors Florida State and that will keep me from making Florida a Best Bet in this game.I'll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Clemson (-2.5) 29 SOUTH CAROLINA 21
04:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
I've won Best Bets going against South Carolina in their last two games against Arkansas and Florida and Im tempted to do so again. The Gamecocks have trouble stopping the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed) and Clemson has two good running backs to do some damage. The Gamecocks had been very good defending the pass this season, but the loss of top cover corner Captain Munnerlyn (he played just one snap against Florida and is done for the season) hurts that pass defense and South Carolina allowed Florida to average 9.5 yards per pass play against them last week. Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has been just a bit better than average on a yards per pass play basis this season but he has only thrown 5 interceptions all season, so the Tigers should be able to move the ball well on the ground and adequately through the air. South Carolinas offense is just 0.1 yards per play better than average this season and they will likely struggle against a solid Clemson defense that has allowed just 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Overall, my math model favors Clemson by 3 points and the Tigers apply to a decent 169-100-2 ATS revenge situation. Like a lot of season ending rivalry games the road team has been profitable in this series, going 20-6 ATS since 1981 and 13-2 ATS with revenge. I'll consider Clemson a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Marc Lawrence CFB perfect System Club Play
Perfect System Club
CFB 11/24/07 BREAK DANCE
PLAY ON any college conference home dog off a win with rest and
revenge in their final home game of the season if they allow 31.5 points.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 18-0
Play On: Virginia
Rationale: The combination of rest and revenge works well for home
dogs off a win, especially when playing their final home game of the
season. Bring the opponent in off a comfortable win and they perform
to the best of their ability
Winning points
****BEST BET
GEORGIA over GEORGIA TECH* by 22
With Georgia only having won the last three games in this series by a combined
16 points, none of them coming by more than a touchdown, the oddsmakers are
forced to set a short price for this one. That gives us an easy buy signal in a game
that will turn out to be a complete mismatch, and it will take a lot more than any
rivalry emotion for the Yellow Jackets to be able to compete. Although that escape
vs. North Carolina last week has Chan Gailey’s squad bowl bound, the truth is that
this has been a most disappointing season – the defense was only good, not great,
and Taylor Bennett and the passing game never did find any kind of rhythm. It is
indeed a different ballgame when Calvin Johnson is not around catching everything
in sight. And now the one offensive strength they do have, the running of
Teshard Choice between the tackles, has nowhere to go against a Georgia defense
that has been outstanding against the run following that bye week in October – in
their last three SEC games the Bulldogs have held Kentucky and Florida to their
lowest rushing output of the season, and Auburn to the #2 low. As for those blitz
packages of the Tech defense, Matthew Stafford is now in season #2 against them,
having gained a great deal of confidence in directing that 12-play game-winning
TD drive last year (no interceptions in 27 attempts) and every time Gailey sends
extra pass rushers it means single coverage down the field, a problem against a QB
that can air it out as well as anyone in the land. As always, there will be plenty of
Dawg backers in the crowd. GEORGIA 35-13.
***BEST BET
WAKE FOREST over VANDERBILT* by 18
There was an awful lot of promise when this season began in Nasvhille, with
Bobby Johnson having his most experienced team yet, and prospects of a bowl
campaign in view. Fast forward to this week and we have a team that has lost all of
that enthusiasm, with the dream now shattered. Even a win here means only a 6-
6, which does not get you a trip in this years SEC, and the way that the last two
defeats have taken place will have removed the heart from the Commodores. Two
weeks ago they took Kentucky to the final minute, even converting three fourthdown
plays on a last ditch drive, but came up short on this field. They were able
to rebound off of that defeat with a good effort at Tennessee, because the
Volunteers are the one program that could motivate them under the circumstances.
But after playing an outstanding game for three quarters they simply ran out of gas
physically, with a 24-9 lead in the fourth turning into that bitter 25-24 defeat.
Now there is nothing to reach back for in terms of recharging their batteries, and
in their ninth straight game without a bye they are the type of fragile squad that
can be blown out. The bottom line? While indeed Johnson had an experienced
group the talent at the skill positions simply was not there. They have not had an
offensive touchdown of more than 40 yards in a lined game, and in the bruised and
battered state they are left in it does not happen here. Meanwhile the Deacons are
going bowling again at 7-4, and can move up the selection ladder by impressing
the scouts in this one. WAKE FOREST 34-16.
Carlo Campanella
The final week of the College football season is upon us and that means a slew of interstate rivalry games are on the card. One of those will be played in Atlanta, as Georgia Tech (7-4) hosts Georgia (9-2) this Saturday. Georgia is on top of the SEC East and looking for a major Bowl appearance while Tech will play in a minor Bowl as theyll end up in 3rd place of the ACC Coastal Conference. Georgia leads this series with an awesome 12-3 SU record and have also made money for their backers while owning a 10-4 ATS record. Georgia won last years battle, 15-13, at home and are Georgia enters this game on a 5 game winning streak, including a 24-13 victory over Kentucky last weekend. The Bulldog offense is averaging a solid 32.0 points per game, while their defense has held foes to 21.4 points per game this year. Tech ends their season playing solid football, winning 4 of their final 5 games, including a 2 point home victory against North Carolina last Saturday. The Yellow Jacket offensive is putting up 27 points per game, with their defense holding foes to a stingy average of 18.2 points. Backing Georgia, whos on a 5-1 ATS winning run during the last six games in this series knowing that theyre 26-16 ATS when their opponent is seeking revenge from them.
7* Play On Georgia
Doc's sports college
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4* Miss st -6.5
4* boise st +3
4* S car. +2.5
4* wake forest -2
4* memphis -7.5
4* ball st -8.5
4* virginia +3.5
5* CFU -19
Tim Trushel - College Game Of Year PAID and CONFIRMED
11/24/07 CFB 20* Featured Play: Kentucky -2.5 (150)
cokin 3* scar,idaho hat: cfla ecar ohio wind: oreg,gatech tot: ballst sy: fla st bg: byu cbb: 3* crei,ford hat: wisc wind: arkst sy: brown bg: cal nba: 3* raptors wind: hawks
feist: 5* fresnio 4* utah pl: sanjose pb: virg cbb: 5* stbonn pl; wisc,purd pb: rhi nba: 5* bucks ic: nugg pl: dall ov
scotty: 5* rice,utah tko: memp ko: scar in: virg cbb: 5* crei tko:cal river nba: 4* nugg tko: hawks ko: heat
Northcoast Infomercial
Monday
Early Bird POW
North Carolina
Tuesday
Underdog POW
South Carolina
Power Plays
4* Tulane
Wednesday
Econlmy Club
Miami Fla.
Thursday
Northcoast Big Dogs
Arkansas
Utep
Tulane
Rice
Florida State
Miami Fla
Spylock
1 Kentucky -3
1 Stanford -3.5
1 Kansas -2
Dr Bob NCAA Football
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3 Star Selection
PITTSBURGH 23 S. Florida (-10.0) 24
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
South Florida came through with a 55-17 win over Louisville as a 4-Star Best Bet last week, but that win sets the Bulls up in a very negative 12-51 ATS road favorite letdown situation this week. Pittsburgh is certainly good enough defensively to keep this game tight and teams with a good defense are pretty good bets as big double-digit underdogs. The Panthers, in fact, are 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog of 10 points or more, including a 24-17 upset home win as a 10 point home dog to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has allowed just 4.5 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team and that unit is just as good as South Florida’s well publicized stop unit that has also yielded just 4.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl. The difference in these teams is offense (Pitt is 0.9 yppl worse than average while South Florida is 0.4 yppl better than average) and turnovers (USF is +12 in turnover margin while Pitt is -5). My math model does project a 76 yards and 0.9 yppl advantage for South Florida in this game but you can’t expect South Florida to continue to be as fortunate in the turnover department as they’ve been in recent games. My math model favors USF by just 8 points in this game and the situation against the Bulls is very strong. South Florida is an impressive 40-28-1 ATS lifetime in all games, but the Bulls are 0-5 ATS in conference road games following consecutive victories, which verifies the flat spot they are in today. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 2-Stars from +9 ½ down to +7 ½ points.
3 Star Selection
Miami Ohio 33 OHIO (-2.0) 25
11:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Miami-Ohio has locked up a trip to the MAC Championship game but the Redhawks still haven’t become bowl eligible as a loss in this game coupled with a loss to Central Michigan in the MAC title game would leave Miami with a losing record and no bowl game. The Redhawks also have a score to settle with rival Ohio, who won last year’s game 34-24. Miami applies to a 36-5 ATS subset of an 87-29 ATS revenge situation and my math model favors Miami-Ohio by ½ a point in this game – so we have a little line value to go with the good situation. I’ll take Miami-Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2- Stars at pick or -1.
3 Star Selection
NORTH CAROLINA (-14.0) 38 Duke 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
North Carolina is a much better team than their 3-8 record indicates and the Tarheels will finally get to show off their talents against a horrible Duke squad that has lost 5 consecutive games by 17 points or more (0-5 ATS) and just lost by 21 points to a horrible Notre Dame team. North Carolina has averaged 5.2 yards per play this season while their solid defensive unit had yielded just 5.1 yppl and the Tarheels have outplayed a schedule that rates at 3.4 points better than average. The teams that North Carolina has faced would out-gain an average team 5.5 yppl to 5.1 yppl, so the Tarheels rate at 0.1 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively. Duke has faced a schedule of teams that is slightly worse than North Carolina’s compensated numbers and the Blue Devils have been out-gained 4.3 yppl to 6.1 yppl by those teams - and Duke’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse since losing their best defensive lineman Patrick Bailey 5 games ago. My math model projects a 209 total yards advantage for UNC in this game and the Tarheels’ have a solid special teams edge. Duke is also 6-16 ATS under coach Ted Roof when they are not an underdog of more than 14 points and the only times they cover in that role is if the opponent is coming into the game on a winning streak (Duke is 3-15 ATS in that pointspread range if the opponent is not off 2 wins). The math model favors North Carolina by 24 ½ points in this game and gives the Tarheels a 62% chance of covering at -14 points based on past predictability of my math model. The Tarheels would still be worthy of a Best Bet up to -16 ½ points (57%). I’ll take North Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars from -14 ½ to -16 ½ points and the Tarheels would be a Strong Opinion at -17 points (55.3% chance of covering).
3 Star Selection
Alabama 23 AUBURN (-6.0) 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Alabama was caught looking ahead to this rivalry game and lost straight up to UL Monroe as a 24 ½ point home favorite. A 6-5 record and a loss to a Sun Belt team is not exactly what Alabama fans envisioned with Nick Saban signed on as the coach of the Tide. However, a win over bitter rival Auburn will surely help heal some wounds and I expect the Crimson Tide to play their best game of the season today. Alabama applies to a very strong 64-14 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s upset loss and Auburn applies to a negative 17-48 ATS team off a late season bye angle. Underdogs of more than 4 points are 11-3-1 ATS in this rivalry and Alabama’s loss last week has supplied us with a little line value (my math model favors Auburn by just 4 ½ points). I’ll take Alabama in a 3- Star Best Bet at +4 points or more, for 4-Stars at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3 points.
2 Star Selection
**STANFORD (-3.5) 26 Notre Dame 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Notre Dame finally recorded a legitimate win last week, as they beat a horrible Duke team 28-7 while out-gaining the Blue Devils 5.3 yards per play to 3.6 yppl. Notre Dame’s other win at UCLA was a complete fluke, as they got 7 turnovers from the Bruins’ 3rd string quarterback and won despite only gaining 140 total yards. My math model actually favored Notre Dame by 9 ½ points in that game, which tells you how bad Duke is. Stanford may be the worst team in the Pac-10, but the Cardinal are not that bad on a national scale and they should be favored by at least 10 points in this game. Stanford’s offense has averaged only 4.5 yppl this season, but the Cardinal have faced teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yppl to an average team and they rate at just 0.2 yppl worse than average with Tavita Pritchard at quarterback. Notre Dame’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average so the Irish have a 0.9 yppl advantage over Stanford’s offense. That advantage won’t be enough since the Irish are 1.8 yppl worse than average offensively (3.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while Stanford’s defense is only 0.3 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to a schedule of good offensive teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team). So, the Cardinal have a 1.5 yppl advantage over Notre Dame’s offense. Notre Dame does have 1.4 points edge in projected turnovers, but Stanford has a huge edge in special teams and my math model favors the Cardinal by 11 ½ points in this game and gives them a 59.3% chance of covering based on the historical predictability of my math model. Some of you may think that Notre Dame’s offense is improving based on the 96 points that they’ve scored in their last 3 games, but the Irish only averaged 4.4 yppl in those games against Navy, Air Force, and Duke – who would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average offensive team. So, Notre Dame’s offense has been 2.0 yppl worse than average in those 3 games, which is actually a bit worse than their season rating of -1.8 yppl. The Irish are just as bad as they’ve been all season and Stanford will enjoy taking a break from the nation’s 3rd toughest schedule. Stanford’s only game against a team at Notre Dame’s level resulted in a 37-0 win over San Jose State and I see a pretty comfortable win for the Cardinal in this game. I’ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less.
2 Star Selection
**WEST VIRGINIA (-17.5) 38 Connecticut 12
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Connecticut’s 9-2 record will certainly get the attention of West Virginia’s players and the Mountaineers will be motivated by the potential for a National Championship game appearance. The Mounties apply to a very strong 34-6-1 ATS subset of a 91-37-2 ATS situation that plays on teams with one or fewer losses late in the season and I expect West Virginia’s top game today. Connecticut is certainly no pushover, as they have a solid defense (4.7 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and take care of the ball (quarterback Lorenzen has thrown just 5 interceptions). However, the Huskies have benefited from 21 defensive interceptions in 11 games and they cannot depend on such good fortune against a quarterback in Patrick White that has thrown only 3 interceptions in 10 games this season. Connecticut’s good defense also doesn’t match up well with a run-oriented West Virginia attack, as the Huskies are great against the pass and just average defending the run (4.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.4 yprp against an average team). The Huskies strong pass defense won’t do them much good in this game, as Patrick White will simply take off an run if he doesn’t find anyone open (White has 984 yards on 141 rushing plays). West Virginia averaged 6.8 yards per play against a good Rutgers defense with similar characteristics, as the Scarlet Knights are also very good defending the pass and just average against the run. Connecticut’s offense is a bit worse than average and I don’t see them doing much damage against a good West Virginia stop unit that has yielded just 4.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. My math model takes into account the favorable match-up for West Virginia’s offense and favors the Mountaineers by 19 points. I only need a fair line to play the strong angle favoring the Mounties and I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -19 points or less and for 3-Stars at -17 points or less (-115 odds or less) .
Strong Opinion
Miami Fla 21 BOSTON COLLEGE (-14.5) 30
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Miami Florida failed to cover at Virginia Tech last week despite being in a very favorable situation. The Hurricanes once again apply to a very strong situation – a 64-11 ATS blowout bounce-back situation – while Boston College applies to a negative 15-59 ATS double-digit home favorite letdown situation that is based on their upset win at Clemson last week. Boston College has clinched a berth in the ACC Championship game and it may be tough for the Eagles to get up for a team that has lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. Boston College does have revenge, but that was under a different coach and the Eagles always have revenge against Miami (they haven’t beaten them since 1982) and it never seems to matter. My math model favors Boston College by 13 ½ points, so Miami’s recent bad play has supplied us with a little line value. Miami can become bowl eligible with a win today and the Hurricanes are still playing hard (their defense allowed a respectable 5.3 yppl to Virginia Tech but they were hurt by a -3 turnover margin). I realize that it’s not easy to bet on a Miami team that has allowed 92 points in their last two games, but teams with a win percentage of .333 or higher are actually 47-25-1 ATS after losing back-to-back games in which they allowed 41 points or more in each game, and the Hurricanes still have a better than average defense (5.1 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The line is fair and the situation is strongly in favor of Miami and I should be betting this game. I just can’t seem to pull the trigger and make the Hurricanes a Best Bet, so I will consider Miami a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I’d make the Hurricanes a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.
Strong Opinion
FLORIDA (-13.5) 40 Florida St. 21
02:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Florida has slipped up a couple of times this season and lost to teams that they should have beaten (Auburn and Georgia), but the Gators are still one of the very best teams in the nation. No team has a better offense than Florida’s attack, which has averaged 7.1 yards per play and 43 points per game against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl and 24 points per game to an average team. Florida State is only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team), which is actually the average level of defense that the Gators have faced this year (so scoring around their average of 43 points should be expected). The Gators do have a problem defending the pass, allowing 6.4 yards per pass play to teams that would aveage 5.9 yppp against an average team, but they stuff the run (3.7 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp) and Drew Weatherford is not likely to fully exploit Florida’s secondary given that he is a below average passer that rarely throws the ball down the field (he’s averaged a modest 6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback while throwing for an average of just 11.4 yards per completion). Overall, Florida’s defense is 0.2 yppl better than average while Florida State’s offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average with Weatherford at quarterback (the Seminoles’ rushing attack has mustered only 4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team). My math model favors Florida by 20 points in this game and there are situations that favor both sides in this game. The stronger situation favors Florida State and that will keep me from making Florida a Best Bet in this game. I’ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Clemson (-2.5) 29 SOUTH CAROLINA 21
04:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
I’ve won Best Bets going against South Carolina in their last two games against Arkansas and Florida and I’m tempted to do so again. The Gamecocks have trouble stopping the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed) and Clemson has two good running backs to do some damage. The Gamecocks had been very good defending the pass this season, but the loss of top cover corner Captain Munnerlyn (he played just one snap against Florida and is done for the season) hurts that pass defense and South Carolina allowed Florida to average 9.5 yards per pass play against them last week. Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has been just a bit better than average on a yards per pass play basis this season but he has only thrown 5 interceptions all season, so the Tigers should be able to move the ball well on the ground and adequately through the air. South Carolina’s offense is just 0.1 yards per play better than average this season and they’ll likely struggle against a solid Clemson defense that has allowed just 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Overall, my math model favors Clemson by 3 ½ points and the Tigers apply to a decent 169-100-2 ATS revenge situation. Like a lot of season ending rivalry games the road team has been profitable in this series, going 20-6 ATS since 1981 and 13-2 ATS with revenge. I’ll consider Clemson a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Donnie Black (Had Hawaii last night)
11/24/07 CFB NC State -2.5 (140)
11/24/07 CFB South Carolina +3 (144)
11/24/07 CFB 20* Black Magic: Ohio U -2 (152)
Andy Iskoe
126 Hawaii -2.5
133 Missouri +2
187 Va Tech -3.5
193 Ark St. +13.5
Best Bet:
138 Vandy +1