Saturday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

burns college football

Underdog GOY

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+14 or better)

Game: Florida Atlantic vs. Troy Game Time: 12/1/2007 2:00:00 PM Prediction: Florida Atlantic Reason: I'm taking the points with FLORIDA ATLANTIC. The Trojans are playing well, playing on their home field and have dominated conference play. However, other than the part about home field, the exact same thing can be said about the Owls. The Owls hammered winless Florida International by a score of 55-23, putting themselves in position to play Troy with the conference title on the line. While Troy is 6-0 (5-1 ATS) in conference play, the Owls are right there with them at 5-1 (4-2 ATS). Their four non-conference losses came vs. Florida, South Florida, Oklahoma State and Kentucky and there's no shame in that! In fact, if they didn't have such a tough non-conference slate, the Owls would likely already be sitting pretty for a bowl. However, as it is, their season will end if they lose this afternoon. If they can win, however, they'll advance to play Memphis at the New Orleans Bowl. The Trojans certainly have a high-powered attack. However, Florida Atlantic is right there with them. In fact, the Owls have scored more points recently as they've averaged 36.3 points their past three games compared to Troy's 33.3. Owls quarterback Rusty Smith leads the sun Belt with 3,061 yards passing to go along with 25 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. Note that Smith threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns against Troy last season. The Owls have put up huge numbers in conference play (35.8 ppg) but they've also been able to put up points against the top teams in the country as they scored an average of 20 against Florida (20), South Florida (23) and Kentucky (17). It should be noted that the Owls are also very well coached as Howard Schnellenberger is arguably the top coach in the conference. As Troy coach Larry Blakeney told the Dothan Eagle: "Coach (Howard) Schnellenberger has probably forgot more football than most of us know,." Blakeney went on to say of the Owls: "They're good across the board. We'll have to play very well to have a chance to win." Last year's game was decided by just seven points (24-17 Troy) and the Owls were driving for the tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter. The Owls, who brought back a whopping 18 starters (Troy had 13) from that team, are much improved this season. The Trojans have lost their last two home finales, including a 33-26 loss to Arkansas State as eight point favorites last season. I expect them to have their hands full again this year against an explosive, well-coached and highly-motivated Owls squad. *Underdog GOY

december total of the month

UNDER USC/UCLA (44 or better)

Game: UCLA vs. USC Game Time: 12/1/2007 4:30:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on USC and UCLA to finish UNDER the number. I successfully played on the Trojans to finish "over" the total in their most recent game, a 44-24 win with an over/under line of 51. However, that was on the road vs. the Sun Devils. That's a whole different deal from facing UCLA at home, yet the over/under line is less than a touchdown different. The Sun Devils came into that game averaging 38.5 points (448 total yards) per game at home and the Trojans and Sun Devils nearly always play high-scoring games against each other. Conversely, the Trojans and Bruins combined for only 22 points last season (13-9 UCLA!) and the Bruins come into today's game averaging 25 points (381 total yards) on the road. That's almost two touchdowns less than the Sun Devils were managing at home. The Bruins also come in playing excellent defense. Two games ago, they also held the Sun Devils to 24 points and in their most recent game, they completely shutout (16-0 final) the Ducks. That brought the UNDER to 4-1 their past five games. Despite giving up 24 points last week, the Trojans' defense played really well, recording six sacks and limiting the Sun Devils to 16 rushing yards on 35 attempts. USC is sixth in the nation in scoring defense (16.7 points per game), and one of Arizona State's touchdowns came on a kickoff return and the other came in the fourth quarter when the game was out of reach. Additionally, the Trojans' defense has been even more dominant at home, allowing a mere 12.8 points per game. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone a perfect 5-0 in their games here. The UNDER is also a highly profitable 9-1 in the Trojans' 10 games played on a Saturday this season and 18-7 their last 25 conference games overall. Look for another defensive affair that stays below the generous number. *December Total of Month

3 game executive report with shocker GOM

SAN DIEGO ST (+14 or better)

Game: BYU vs. San Diego St. Game Time: 12/1/2007 6:30:00 PM Prediction: San Diego St. Reason: I'm taking the points with SAN DIEGO STATE. The Cougars are looking to become the first school in conference history to finish undefeated in the league for two straight seasons. While that should provide them with some motivation, I don't think it will be enough to offset the natural letdown and look-ahead that comes with having clinched the conference title last week and looking ahead to a probable birth in the Las Vegas Bowl. Granted, there is still a way that the Cougars could earn a BCS spot. However, they would need a ton of dominoes to fall into place (help from other teams), so they know that's not likely. Despite their strong conference record, the Cougars are still just 2-3 ATS on the road for the season, losing by double-digits at UCLA and at Tulsa. The Aztecs aren't in that class. However, they've covered the spread in three straight games here (11-5 ATS last 16) and they'll be highly motivated to close out their season with a big win in front of the home fans. As safety Corey Boudreaux had to say: "We still have a chance to leave our mark at home against BYU. We're not going to give up fighting right now. We've been fighting for 11 weeks and there is no reason to give up right now." The Aztecs, who won 31-10 when they hosted the Cougars in 2005, are a highly profitable 10-2 ATS the last 12 times that they were coming off a conference loss. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again amd don't be "shocked" if they score the outright win. *Shocker of the Month

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (pick'em or better)

Game: North Texas vs. Golden Panthers Game Time: 12/1/2007 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Golden Panthers Reason: I'm taking the points with FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. This game means a lot to the Golden Panthers as they desperately want to avoid finishing the season with a winless record for the second straight year. Despite a loss to Troy last season, note that the Golden Panthers remain a solid 4-1 their last five home finales, outscoring opponents by 178-118 margin. The Mean Green should be the perfect opponent for the Golden Panthers to earn their first win against as they are 0-6 on the road. While Florida International has been outscored by a 33-18 margin at home, North Texas has been destroyed by a 51-18 margin on the road. The Mean Green are now a terrible 1-15 their last 16 road games. They're also 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven times they were listed as favorites, with all six losses also coming in "SU" fashion. The Owls took the Mean Green to seven overtimes last year before losing by a field goal. Despite their winless record, this is an improved team while I don't feel the same can necessarily be said of North Texas. Yes, the Golden Panthers are without their regular QB. However, he had 18 interceptions and I don't expect his loss will prove to be a negative. Playing on their home field, look for the Golden Panthers to prove to be the hungrier team and for that to lead to them snapping the nation's longest losing streak.

ARIZONA (+6 or better)

Game: Arizona Wildcats vs. Arizona St. Game Time: 12/1/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Wildcats Reason: I'm taking the points with ARIZONA. I've had success this season by playing against teams which were coming off their first loss, provided that loss damaged their dreams of playing for a national title. That isn't exactly the case here. It's close though and the logic remains the same. The Sun Devils are coming off their second loss of the season, getting crushed 44-24 by USC. That loss likely didn't cost them a spot in the national title game. However, it did cost the Sun Devils the Pac-10 title and the subsequent BCS bowl bid that goes with it. Although they'll be facing their instate rivals, coming off that devastating loss, I won't be surprised to see the Sun Devils struggle this week. Quotes from the players and coaches can often reveal a lot about a team's mind set and I feel that's the case here. QB Rudy Carpenter, who was sacked six times, said: "The most frustrating thing for us is that a lot of these guys, our whole dream is to go play in the Rose Bowl. We had a chance for that. That is the most frustrating thing, losing at home....It is frustrating all the way around. We got beat." Coach Erickson had the following to say: "We didn't play good. It's sad. We just did not play like I thought we would in a game like this. No excuses. We just didn't do what we needed to do." Note that the Sun Devils were already dealing with a few injuries and that several players were banged-up in the USC loss. While the Sun Devils come into this game "hanging their heads," and off their biggest loss in years, the rested Wildcats come in on a major roll. The Wildcats had last week off to heal some nagging bumps and bruises and to give them some extra preparation time. Prior to that, they come off a major upset of Oregon and victories over UCLA and Washington before that. During that time, the Wildcats have went from looking ahead to next year to possibly needing a scouting report on a bowl opponent. Additionally, coach Stoops' job, which was on shaky ground, is now secure. The Wildcats are playing with "revenge" from a 28-14 loss at Tuscon last season. They also lost their last visit here to Tempe. However, that loss came by only three points and the Wildcats were listed as 10 point underdogs. Including the "cover" in 2005, the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they traveled here. The Wildcats are also 5-1 ATS the last six times they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 point range. During the same stretch, the Sun Devils have gone an ugly 1-6 ATS as favorites of -3.5 to -10 points. I feel the situation strongly favors the Wildcats and I expect them to earn (at least) another cover.

This week's Perfect System Club plays from Marc Lawrence:

CFB 12/1/07
PERFECT PLEASURE
PLAY ON any college favorite in their final game of the season if
they are unbeaten and scored 35 > points in their last game versus a
< .600 opponent.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 10-0

Play On: Hawaii

Rationale: The ultimate success in any sport to to go undefeated.
When teams are at home against a beatable foe they strive hard to
achieve that success.

Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)

Game: Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia

Play Against NCAA road underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points off 2 straight losses against conference rivals against opponent off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, 26-4 ATS the last 10 seasons.

SELECTION: West Virginia -28.5

gary greene bluebook sports has virginia tech big on saturday coll foots

Pointwise Newsletter

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Rating:1
USC 45 UCLA 17

Rating:2
Virginia Tech 27 Boston College 17

Rating:5
Arizona 31 Arizona State 30

Pointwise Redsheet

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Rating:90(1st 90 rating of the year)
USC 45 UCLA 13

Rating:89
West Virginia 52 Pittsburgh 10

Rating:88
C. Michigan 47 Miami-Oh 34

Rating:88
Virginia Tech 27 Boston College 15

Rating:88
Hawaii 54 Washington 27

Rating:87
Fresno,Arizona,and Army

chuck luck

oklahoma (bigger play)
fl intl
tenn

Wild Bill

Nevada -8 1/2 (1 unit)
Army +14 (1 unit)
Pitt +28 1/2 (2 units)
Hawaii -13 1/2 (1 unit)
Troy -15 1/2 (1 unit)
Central Florida -6 1/2 (4 units)
Boston College +5 1/2 (2 units)
Tennessee +7 1/2 (1 unit)
Under 74 Arizona-ASU (5 units)

Selective Sports Systems

Arizona/Arizona St Over 57.5
for 7 units

Army +14 for 5 units

Spylock
12/01/07 Tennessee
4:05 PM LSU -7.5 LSU -7.5 1

Ferringio
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
8-Unit Play. Take #330 Central Florida (-7) over Tulsa (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 1)
Note: This is our College Football Game of the Year. I do endorse a play at -7.5 for 7 Units. Buy off the hook if you can.

Central Florida is a bigger, badder, better team than Tulsa and they are going to prove it again this weekend. UCF hammered the Hurricanes by 21 points in their October meeting and are playing even better now then they were then. Since a mid-season loss to South Florida, the Knights have run off six straight wins by an average of 21.8 points. Tulsa is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and has not been the same explosive team on grass that they have been on turf. This is an incredibly young Tulsa team, with just five senior starters, and other than quarterback Paul Smith there isn’t much that I see that scares me on the Tulsa sideline. These are two of the top offenses in Conference USA but the difference will be that UCF can hit and control the line of scrimmage. They should dominate the time of possession, should keep Smith off the field, and will clearly have the home crowd behind them as they avenge a loss to the Hurricanes from two years ago.

4.5-Unit Play. Take Central Michigan (-3) over Miami, OH (11 a.m., Saturday, Dec. 1)
The defending MAC champions have 14 starters back from the team that hammered Ohio 31-10 last year in this very game. Central Michigan got off to a slow start this season due in part to injuries and a tricky schedule, but over the last month they have been the best team in the MAC. They have won three of their last four games away from home outright and have won six of eight games overall. We will be backing the No. 1 offense in the conference and we will be backing the best player on the field in CMU’s Dan LeFevour. Miami of Ohio has stumbled down the stretch, dropping three of four games and posting a 1-4 ATS mark. Central Michigan is 17-4-3 ATS in their last 24 conference games, 15-3-2 ATS as a favorite, and 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.0 to 10.0. The Redhawks do play solid defense and are a scrappy club, but I don’t trust their quarterback not to make a crippling mistake and I don’t think this team can put up enough points if they get behind early. I think the crowd will be on CMU’s side and I think luck will be as well, as the Chippewas make it back-to-back MAC titles.

3-Unit Play. Take Washington (+14) over Hawaii (11:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 1)
Hawaii is setup for a letdown here after winning a game against Boise State that they had built up to be the pinnacle of their season. Washington is coming off a tough loss in the Apple Cup, but this is a senior-laden team that is looking to play spoiler against a Hawaii team with stars in its eyes. Hawaii is just 2-6 ATS against the Pac-10 and the Huskies already dominated Boise State this year. I do not think they win this one, but it shouldn’t be decided by double-digits either.

2-Unit Play. Take #335 Oklahoma (-3) over Missouri (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 1)
No. 1 or No. 2 has not been a happy place for teams this year. I know everyone is excited about Missouri righ tnow but I still think that Oklahoma is a bigger, badder team than the Tigers. OU has owned the Tigers over the past two seasons and the key to this play comes down to one thing: is this Missouri team better than the one that got hammered at home by this Sooners team? I say no. In Stoops We Trust, and the Sooners are going to roll in this one.

Larry Ness' LEGEND Play-CFB (now 8-2 in CFB regular season since '05!)-Sat
MY LEGEND Play is on Oklahoma at 8:00 ET. The way it shapes up (I think?), Kansas will be headed to a BCS bowl game, while the LOSER of the Big 12 title game, WILL NOT! Now if it's the Tigers who lose, the Missouri faithful will surely cry foul. Well, "bring out the hankies!" Missouri's had a super season and clearly showed it was the better team last Saturday night at Arrowhead. Missouri is the ONLY team in the nation to have scored at least 30 points in every game TY and led by QB Chase Daniel (70.5% / 33-9 ratio), the Tigers' spread offense is a thing of beauty. I won't waste time listing all its attributes but I will point out that although Oklahoma may only have a freshman QB, Sam Bradford has not taken a "back seat" to many TY. He had a poor game in the loss at Colorado and went out early with a concussion in the Texas Tech loss. However, he completed better than 70% of his passes in EIGHT of his other 10 games (70.2% / 32-7 ratio on the year), plus OUTPLAYED Daniel when Oklahoma beat Missouri (41-31) in Norman (on 10/13). Bradford was 24-of-34 in that game for 266 yards (2-0 ratio). Daniel did complete 37-of-47 for 361 yards but had a 1-2 ratio plus his fumbled exchange with freshman superstar Maclin (with Missouri up 24-23), was returned for a TD, sparking the Oklahoma win. Many forget that Oklahoma was in a 'flat' spot in that game (off Texas game), yet still beat the now No. 1 team in the country by 10 points (Missouri need a concession TD to cover!). Stoops has taken Oklahoma to FIVE previous Big 12 title games, going 4-1 SU and ATS, while this is the Tigers' first-ever Big 12 championship game. Oh by the way, Oklahoma's 41-31 win over Missouri on Oct 13 was the Sooners' 17th win in the last 18 meetings with the Tigers! LEGEND Play on Oklahoma.

Handicapper: John Ryan
Oklahoma vs. Missouri (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3/-108 Oklahoma Play Title: Oklahoma wins big time
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Oklahoma – Yes indeed, this is the strongest graded play I have seen from Ai Simulator in 5 seasons and it ranks among the TOP-10 on the all-time list spanning 15 seasons. I was beginning to think that with all of the building parity in recent years among CFB teams, it would be near impossible to get a play of this strength. AiS shows a 93% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 6 or more points. Oklahoma is coming off a game forcing just 1 turnover in their 49-17 win over Oklahoma State. This puts them into a strong role for this game. Note that Oklahoma is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Let me mention that the supporting cast of angles, systems, and research serve only to reinforce the grading of the play by the Ai Simulator. The research (matchup) analysis is a subjective form and it MUST support the graded play in order for it to be confirmed. Oklahoma will be able to run and pass the ball effectively. The running game will be the difference as it will not only wear down the Missouri defensive front, but it will keep their offense off the field. AiS shows a 90% probability that Missouri will not gain 300+ passing yards in this game and if that occurs they then have an 89% probability of winning the game by 6 or more points. The Tigers typically pass more than they run. They've attempted 59 more passes than runs through 12 games, including a ratio of 49-to-30 the first time these two teams squared off. That percentage should increase this Saturday versus an Oklahoma pass defense that has been exposed at times recently. The big item to note here is that Oklahoma already knows this and will play more dime and nickel packages than in any game this year. Of course Missouri will get their yards and they may be forced to utilize the run if Oklahoma uses too may pass schemes. The Oklahoma defensive front has the size, strength, and speed to handle the run and more importantly the Sooner blitz and pass rush will excel. Pressure on Daniel utilizing pro looks, zone blitzing, and area blitzes will all be used, in my opinion. Take the Sooners.

Players of America

Central Michigan Chippewa's -2.5 (5*/50 units) MAC Conference GOY

Miami, Ohio vs. Central Michigan (-2.5)
Detroit, MI 11:00a EST

The MAC Championship, and an automatic bid to the Motor City Bowl is on the line Saturday at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan when the Miami-Ohio Redhawks clash with the Chippewa's from Central Michigan. These two teams enter this contest headed in different directions. The Redhawks have dropped 3 of their L5 while the Chippewa's have won 3 of their L4.

WHEN MIAMI-OHIO HAS THE BALL:

The Redhawks have struggled mightily this season when they have had the ball. They average a mere 20.0ppg while not having much success at either throwing or rushing the football. Dan Raudabaugh has handled the majority of the QB duties this season completing 54.2% of his attempts for 2177yds, 11 TD's and 10 INT'S. Mike Kokal has struggled even worse when given the job throwing 7INT'S compared to 1 TD! As a unit the Redhawks average 234.66ypg via the air. Cory Jones and Austin Sykes has handled the majority of the rushing. Both backs have put up very similar stats this year; however, Sykes is dealing with an ankle injury, and I expect Jones to get the bulk of the work. As a unit, the Redhawks average 123.66rypg

The Chippewa's defensive unit has been nothing less than horrendous this year. Central Michigan has struggled against both the pass (287.4ypg), and the rush (174.8ypg) which has led to a conference worse 38.0ppg against!

WHEN CENTRAL MICHIGAN HAS THE BALL:

As MAC Offensive Player of the Year, Dan LeFevour goes for the Chippewa's. LeFevour enters this contest completing 66.1% of his attempts for over 3100+ yards to go along with 22 TD'S vs. 11 INT'S. Not only is LeFevour very effective when throwing the ball, he his also the leading ground gainer for the Chippewa's. LeFevour has 838 rushing yards and 15 TD's via the ground for a total of 37 TD'S! The Chippewa's average an impressive 33+ ppg!

The Redhawks defensive unit is one of the best in the MAC only allowing 24.8ppg The Redhawks are solid against the pass allowing 208=ypg, but have struggled slightly against the rush allowing over 160.3 ypg.

THE INTANGIBLES:

As good as the Redhawks defense has been allowing only 24ppg, they have yet to face an offense or QB as good as the Chippewa's and LeFevour. The Chippewa's are much more battle tested playing the likes of Kansas, Purdue and Clemson out of conference. The Chippewa's are trying to repeat as MAC Champions, and as suspect as their defense has been this year, the Redhawks will struggle to keep LeFevour in check rather it's via the pass or rush, and the Chippewa's will create just enough miscues to keep the Redhawks at arms length away throughout the contest.

PLAY: 5* rating on CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWA'S -2.5 (purchase hook to 2.5 if necessary)