Stephen Nover
LSU / 391 Auburn Under 42.5
Analysis:
This game has been bet down in the marketplace and rightfully so. These are two outstanding defenses.
Despite giving up 375 yards and 27 points in regulation to Kentucky last week in an overtime loss, LSU still rates No. 2 overall in defense. The Tigers should be especially fired-up defensively after last week's disappointing performance.
The Tigers have four potential first-round draft choices on defense with cornerback Chevis Jackson, linebacker Keith Rivers, linebacker Ali Highsmith and tackle Glenn Dorsey, who could be the first player chosen in the 2008 draft.
Auburn isn't too shabby either on defense ranking ninth. The Tigers held Arkansas' star running back Darren McFadden to a season-low 43 yards rushing during a 9-7 victory last Saturday. McFadden's fewest yards rushing up to that game this season was 122.
LSU mainly relies on its ground attack. Its quarterback, Matt Flynn, is inconsistent. He's averaged just 137 yards passing the past two games.
Auburn has gone 'under' the total 73 percent of the time during the past 26 times it has been an underdog. These two teams scored only a combined 10 points when they met last year.
They scored a combined 37 points when they squared off two years ago and just 19 when they met in 2004. In fact, they haven't exceeded 42 points during the past six years. You'd have to go back to 2000 to find the last time they scored more than the posted total here
Lenny Del Genio
West Virginia -24.0 (-110)vs 313 Mississippi St
Analysis:
When West Virginia lost at South Florida 21-13 (September 28), many thought it all but 'killed' the Mountaineers hopes of contending for the national title. However, a rash of upsets of the last two weeks finds West Virginia back in BCS title contention, as the Mountaineers placed 9th in the first BC standings released last Sunday. After this home game with Miss St, West Va plays at Rutgers, home to Louisville and at Cincinnati in a three-game stretch. A three-game sweep would get the Mountaineers right back "in the thick of things." However, first things first. West Va should have little trouble with the Bulldogs, who since a 19-14 win at Auburn (September 15), have lost 38-21 to South Carolina and 33-21 to Tennessee, allowing 402 and 470 yards, respectively. The Bulldogs' D will have major problems with a West Va offense which ranks No. 2 in rushing at 311.1 ypg (6.2 ypc). Overall, West Va is averaging 503.8 ypg and 42.8 ppg. What has gone unnoticed is the West Va defense. The Mountaineers are fifth in total D at 261.5 ypg (allowing just 96.8 ypg on the ground at 2.8 ypc) and 16th in scoring D (17.2 ppg). Miss St has a freshman QB in Carroll and while RB Dixon is solid (694 YR / 4.2 ypc with 10 TDs), the overall running games averages just 3.9 ypc (157.6 ypg). Lay the points with West Va.
Sat, 10/20/07 - 12:30 PMEthan Law | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
323 Vanderbilt 14.0 (-110) Bodog vs 324 South Carolina
Analysis:
UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH!
PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ALSO A 1/2* UNIT MONEY LINE RECOMMENDATION!
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VANDERBILT (3-3) at S CAROLINA (6-1)
Is anybody else as shocked as I am to see South Carolina at No. 6 in the national rankings?On paper,South Carolina (6-1 SU & 4-2 ATS) possess a balanced averaging 28 points, 127 rushing and 221 passing per game, while their defense (on paper) is giving up just 16 points per game. Now the reason I am stressing the term on paper is because if you really take a look at and follow this South Carolina team they really dont possess any of the criteria to justify them being the number 6th ranked team in the country. We have all followed their quarterback controversy throughout the season as their senior quarterback Blake Mitchell was been benched and freshman Chris Smelley (9 touchdowns, 4 interceptions) stepped in. So Smelly is going to play this weekend right? Not so fast, as South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier has been hinting all week that Blake Mitchell might see time, or even get the start, after a good week of practice. Really? Doesnt coach Spurrior know that already the middle of the season and we may have yet another quarterback controversy on our hands again in South Carolina. Wait it actually gets worse. According the South Carolina Gazette (a local paper) Spurrier held open competitions for starting offensive line spots! Are you kidding me? Even the talented offensive lines are good because of the fact that they play well together and gel. To change things up at this point, and with the possibility of starting a new quarterback (again) is suicide for a club that is already no offensive juggernaut to say the least. Despite (on paper) averaging 28 points per game this season, those numbers a bit a bit inflated against the like of Louisiana-Lafayette where they scored 28, South Carolina State where they scored 38 and to weak defenses of Mississippi State 38 and Kentucky 38. As stated above, this is a defense that is giving up just 16 points per game! Sounds impressive but again look at their competition. They held a very vanilla North Carolina offense to just 15, Louisiana-Lafayette to only 14, South Carolina State to 3 and Georgia (who couldnt score on anybody in the beginning of the season to only 12. The problem with this defense more or less boils down to one very large concern and that is the fact that they are allowing a staggering 190 yards per game o the ground. Indeed, every team has run for over 125 yards on them including South Carolina State! The defense is also without injured middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley, who damaged a knee ligament against LSU and had season-ending surgery. Brinkley was the second starter South Carolina's defense has lost for the year. Defensive lineman Nathan Pepper injured his left knee in the opener.
Meanwhile, expectations were high for the smart kids this season as they brought back 10 offensive starters and a defensive unit that brought back eight starters. But so far, Vanderbilt (3-3 SU& 2-2 ATS) is just 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS in the SEC where they get beat by a 24-17 average. The smart kids lost by two touchdowns at home to Alabama and by 28 on the road at Auburn, before essentially giving their last game away in the fourth quarter against Georgia. So what we have here, is a similar situation to the Clemson game where we have one team (Vanderbilt) that is coming off two losses and another team (South Carolina) that has won three straight. The lines maker made a big mistake in adjusting the line to a two touchdown mark and it looks at thought the public is biting as early betting indicators are showing public support on South Carolina at around 80%. But be advisedwe are smarter then that and we are not going to bite here. There is a virtual cornucopia of reason why we will be on Vanderbilt this Saturday. First, as stated above, we have analyzed the (on paper) stats of both of these teams and actually Vanderbilt is about on par with South Carolina. Vanderbilt has an excellent pass rush and their pass defense ranks third in the country. Meanwhile, the South Carolina offense (ranks 88th in the nation in total offense) and they should struggle to put points up against a solid Vanderbilt defense (that ranks 22nd in the country in total defense). Were getting 14 points to boot? Secondly, this is also a Gamecock squad that is been one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation. The reason why thats a factor is that because South Carolina is in a clear look-ahead situational setting with trips to Tennessee (Spurriers arch rival) and Arkansas on deck. As such, I would be surprised in the least if they are looking ahead to those match-ups and we get a flat effort from them this weekend. Third, this is not an elite South Carolina offensive unit as they currently rank just 9th in the SEC in total offense. Much of those problem have been the play of their offensive line that has allowed 17 sacks this season (gain he actually changing his personal this weekend) so it quit possible Vanderbilt could have a fantastic day on Saturday. When Vanderbilt is on offense, rest assured they WILL MOVE the ball on the ground against this South Carolina defense that is giving up on average close to 200 yards per game (on 4.4 yards per carry). Remember the chart I gave you last weekend?
Data from 1992 to present
Rushing Yards ATS Success underdog
Less than 50 31%
50 to 99 39%
100 to 149 50%
150 to 199 62%
200 to 249 71%
250 to 299 78%
300 to 399 84%
400 or more 88%
From the above its crystal clear that underdogs who rush for at least 200 yards covers the Vegas line roughly 70% of the time! Vanderbilt has a really good chance of controlling the time of possession in this one and easily has the best chance of getting an upset on Saturday. Vanderbilt also really needs this game to go bowling this season adding to the motivational considerations. If all of this is not enough, take solace in the fact that this will only be Vanderbilts second road contest this season, and despite the setback in Auburn, Vanderbilt has covered in 11 of 13 road games the past three years. Take those points but you will not need them.
Verdict: So Carolina 17, Vanderbilt 21
PLAY 2* UNITS ON VANDERBILT +14;
PLAY 1/2* UNIT ON VANDERBILT +$450
Kelso Sat
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15 units Cincinnati -9.5 @ Pitt
10 units Texas -24.5 @ Baylor
5 units Wake Forest -3 @ Navy
4 units Flor Atl -7 @ ULLaf
3 units Arizona -12.5 v. Stanford
John Ryan
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Ohio State - Not much respect given to Ohio State in commentary made after the BCS report and this should keep the Buckeyes fired up on all cylinders. AiS shows a 73% probability that OSU will win this game by 17 or more points. Also, a 90% probability that they will score 28 plus points and this puts the Buckeyes into an awesome role knowing that they are 28-3 ATS when they score 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 36-8 ATS since 1992 for an incredible 82%. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Take Ohio State.
NorthCoast Sports: Power Sweep...4*....Houston
3*'s...Clemson.....Fla.Atlantic
2*'s....Penn St.....Oklahoma....UCF
Computer Corner:..Tex.A&M...Ohio State...New Mexico
Under Dog POW.....Colorado
Other Plays:
Comp:..Under Dog POW.....W. Michigan
#2 Econ Play....Maryland
Power Play..4*....W.Virginia
Big Ten POW....Illinois
Early Bird POW...ULM
Wild Bill
Air Force -3 (1 unit)
Colorado +4 (2 units)
Nevada -7 (1 unit)
Nebraska -1 1/2 (1 unit)
Iowa State +29 1/2 (3 units)
Missouri -3 1/2 (5 units)
Under 41 Miami-Florida State (4 units)
Washington +11 1/2 (2 units)
Maryland -4 (3 units)
UCF -3 (5 units)
NC State +5 1/2 (2 units)
Stanford +10 1/2 (1 unit)
Ala-Bir'ham +13 (4 units)
Florida -6 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 45 Iowa-Purdue (1 unit)
Michigan -2 1/2 (1 unit)
Idaho +9 1/2 (1 unit)
Auburn +10 1/2 (1 unit)
Colorado St +2 1/2 (1 unit)
Under 66 1/2 N Texas-Troy (2 units)
Middle Tenn -2 1/2 (5 units)
UL-Lafayette +7 (1 unit)
Spylock
3 Texas am
3 Kan St
3 Memphis
1 Kan
1 Oregon
ASA
3* TX A&M
3* Fla
3* Miami
6* Kent
4* Fla Atlantic
4* Colo
Jim Feist
College GOY
Troy State
DCI
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Atlantic Coast Conference
FLORIDA ST. 22, Miami (Fla.) 15
MARYLAND 24, Virginia 20
Big 12 Conference
Kansas 38, COLORADO 26
Oklahoma 49, IOWA ST. 20
OKLAHOMA ST. 36, Kansas St. 31
Texas 43, BAYLOR 21
Texas A&M 36, NEBRASKA 32
Texas Tech vs. MISSOURI: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Big East Conference
Cincinnati 39, PITTSBURGH 20
Big Ten Conference
Michigan 28, ILLINOIS 19
OHIO ST. 43, Michigan St. 15
Penn St. 36, INDIANA 25
PURDUE 26, Iowa 20
Mid-American Conference
Ball St. 45, WESTERN MICHIGAN 37
KENT ST. 36, Bowling Green 33
Miami (Ohio) 30, TEMPLE 21
Ohio 42, TOLEDO 40
Mountain West Conference
AIR FORCE 23, Wyoming 15
New Mexico 34, SAN DIEGO ST. 22
UNLV 30, Colorado St. 20
Pacific-10 Conference
ARIZONA 37, Stanford 27
Oregon 41, WASHINGTON 33
UCLA 35, California 33
Southeastern Conference
Arkansas 36, MISSISSIPPI 27
KENTUCKY 44, Florida 40
LSU 28, Auburn 18
SOUTH CAROLINA 33, Vanderbilt 7
Tennessee 40, ALABAMA 30
Sun Belt Conference
Florida Atlantic 43, LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 28
LOUISIANA-MONROE 36, Florida International 19
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 36, Arkansas St. 27
TROY 54, North Texas 32
Conference USA
Houston 42, UAB 32
RICE 40, Memphis 32
SMU 34, Tulane 28
Tulsa 51, UCF 49
Western Athletic Conference
Boise St. 47, LOUISIANA TECH 15
FRESNO ST. 36, San Jose St. 28
Nevada 52, UTAH ST. 35
NEW MEXICO ST. 36, Idaho 32
FBS Non-Conference
BYU 40, Eastern Washington 17
CLEMSON 37, Central Michigan 36
EAST CAROLINA 40, North Carolina St. 26
GEORGIA TECH 34, Army 7
North Dakota St. 48, MINNESOTA 37
SYRACUSE 32, Buffalo 31
Usc 30, NOTRE DAME 16
Wake Forest 39, NAVY 35
WEST VIRGINIA 43, Mississippi St. 18
Western Kentucky 44, INDIANA ST. 19
WISCONSIN 38, Northern Illinois 13
Big Sky Conference
MONTANA 43, Northern Colorado 0
MONTANA ST. 23, Sacramento St. 14
Northern Arizona 29, WEBER ST. 24
Portland St. 39, IDAHO ST. 29
Big South Conference
Gardner-Webb 31, VMI 24
Liberty 42, CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 39
Colonial Athletic Association
MASSACHUSETTS 36, Northeastern 14
New Hampshire vs. HOFSTRA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
RICHMOND 44, Rhode Island 25
Gateway Conference
Northern Iowa 30, WESTERN ILLINOIS 17
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 58, Missouri St. 33
YOUNGSTOWN ST. 38, Illinois St. 24
Great West Conference
Cal Poly vs. SOUTH DAKOTA ST.: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Uc Davis 32, SOUTHERN UTAH 22
Ivy League
CORNELL 37, Brown 29
DARTMOUTH 36, Columbia 29
HARVARD 36, Princeton 21
Yale 33, PENN 19
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
DELAWARE ST. 28, Morgan St. 12
HAMPTON 27, South Carolina St. 20
HOWARD 39, North Carolina A&T 16
Northeast Conference
Albany 34, ST. FRANCIS (PA.) 10
C. Connecticut St. 23, WAGNER 19
Ohio Valley Conference
Austin Peay 33, SAMFORD 27
EASTERN ILLINOIS 37, Tennessee-Martin 26
EASTERN KENTUCKY 40, Tennessee St. 26
JACKSONVILLE ST. 40, Tennessee Tech 25
SE MISSOURI ST. 39, Murray St. 28
Patriot League
BUCKNELL 40, Georgetown 20
Holy Cross 30, LEHIGH 29
LAFAYETTE 24, Fordham 18
Pioneer League
Dayton 42, VALPARAISO 21
Drake 37, DAVIDSON 26
MOREHEAD ST. 40, Butler 18
SAN DIEGO 53, Jacksonville 15
Southern Conference
APPALACHIAN ST. 60, Georgia Southern 31
Furman 38, CHATTANOOGA 35
The Citadel 54, WESTERN CAROLINA 29
WOFFORD 53, Elon 28
Southland Conference
Central Arkansas 44, SE LOUISIANA 30
Mcneese St. 33, NICHOLLS ST. 21
SAM HOUSTON ST. 35, Northwestern St. 29
TEXAS ST. 33, Stephen F. Austin 27
Southwestern Athletic Conference
JACKSON ST. 23, Grambling 18
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ST. 29, Texas Southern 21
SOUTHERN 24, Alcorn St. 9
FCS Non-Conference
COASTAL CAROLINA 41, Presbyterian 33
COLGATE 23, Towson 17
DUQUESNE 21, Robert Morris 15
Marist vs. SACRED HEART: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
North Carolina Central 31, SAVANNAH ST. 0
STONY BROOK 26, Maine 21
Winston-Salem St. 25, BETHUNE-COOKMAN 17
King Creole | CFB Total
dime bet384 Oklahoma St. / 383 Kansas St. Over 61.0
Analysis: On the OU side, it's ALL about the "OVER".
You can't go wrong with a Cowboy/Wildcat SERIES that's gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in the last 5 meetings dating back to 1998. Avg points scored in this series is a whopping 68.9 PPG. When playing @ Oky State, we've seen 72 and 65 pts in the last 2 meetings.
Both teams have dual-threat offenses. Both can run the ball (OK ST: 246 RYPG / KAN ST: 143 RYPG). Both teams can pass the ball (OK ST: 240 PYPG / KAN ST: 265 PYPG). And on defense, both teams are succeptable via the ground or air.
The team OU trends elevate this play to BEST BET status:
KANSAS STATE is 13-3 O/U in last 16 roles as road underdogs... 11-1 O/U after rushing for 200+ yards... 16-5 O/U vs an opponent with a winning (> .500) home record... 5-1 O/U in last 6 conference games... 4-1 O/U on the "Fake" stuff... 5-1 O/U off an ATS win... and 8-2 O/U after accumulating 450+ yards of total offense.
OKLAHOMA STATE is 21-7 O/U in last 21 home games... 12-4 O/U as home FAVS... 20-6 O/U after rushing for 200+ yards... 20-8 ATS off an ATS win... 6-1 O/U in last 7 roles as a favorite... 8-2 O/U in October... 8-2 O/U after allowing 200+ rushing yards... and 12-4 O/U off a SU win of 20+ points.
KEVIN ONEILL PHONES
buffalo
indiana
tennessee
texas tech
miami florida
auburn
Game Time Picks
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 20
(15) Kansas (6-0, 5-0 ATS) at Colorado (4-3 SU and ATS)
Kansas tries to for its first 7-0 start to a season since 1995 when it travels to Boulder, Colo. to face the Buffaloes for a Big 12 North showdown.
The Jayhawks murdered Baylor 58-10 last week as a 26½-point home favorite, improving to 9-1 SU in their last 10 contests. It was the fourth time this season Kansas has scored more than 50 points and defeated an opponent by at least 45 points. Overall, the Jayhawks are scoring 50.3 points per game and allowing 9.5.
Colorado had its three-game winning streak snapped in a big way a week ago, falling 47-20 at Kansas State as a four-point road underdog. The Buffs were bitten by the turnover bug in the defeat, coughing the ball up four times while failing to force a single K-State miscue.
Kansas edged Colorado 20-15 as a 1½-point home chalk last year, snapping a four-game losing skid (1-3 ATS) to the Buffs. The Jayhawks haven’t prevailed in Boulder since a 40-24 victory in 1995.
Colorado is 2-1 SU and ATS at home, giving up just 13.3 ppg.
The Buffaloes are 4-10 ATS in conference play since 2005 (2-1 ATS this year).
The Jayhawks are on a 9-1 ATS romp in lined games. However, they’re 17-35 ATS in their last 52 on the highway, but they did win their lone road game this year, 30-24 at Kansas State two weeks ago.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS
(20) Tennessee (4-2 SU and ATS) at Alabama (5-2, 1-4-1 ATS)
Tennessee takes a three-game winning steak to Tuscaloosa where it will try to continue its success on Alabama’s home field.
The Vols played a back-and-forth game at Mississippi State for three quarters last week, but pulled away late for a 33-21 win as a seven-point road chalk. Tennessee, which has scored 31 points or more in five of its six games, had 211 rushing yards and 259 passing yards in the win.
Alabama also is coming off a road trip to Mississippi, where the Crimson Tide outlasted Ole Miss 27-24. However, they failed to cover as a seven-point favorite, falling to 0-4-1 ATS in their last five. Alabama did not outgain an opponent in any of those five contests.
The Vols topped Alabama 16-13 last year, but came up short as a 10½-point home chalk. The host has won the last three meetings, but the visitor is on a 14-1 ATS tear in this rivalry. In fact, Tennessee has covered the spread in each of its last seven trips to Tuscaloosa.
Going back to Tennessee’s New Year’s Day bowl loss to Penn State, the straight-up winner is 7-0 ATS in Vols games.
Alabama is mired in an 8-22-2 ATS funk at home, including five consecutive non-covers going back to last season. Overall, the Tide are just 8-15-2 ATS in their last 25 regardless of venue.
The under is on runs of 9-4-1 for Tennessee in October games and 9-3 for Alabama in October. Also, the last three series meetings have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
(22) Texas Tech (6-1, 4-2 ATS) at (15) Missouri (5-1, 5-0 ATS)
Texas Tech shoots for its fourth straight victory when it travels to Missouri to battle a Tigers team that’s coming off its first loss of 2007.
The Red Raiders spotted Texas A&M a quick 7-0 lead a week ago, then scored the game’s final five touchdowns en route to a 35-7 win as a 10-point home favorite. QB Harrell Graham had another phenomenal game, going 30-for-37 for 425 yards and three TDs with no INTs. The junior’s eye-popping season stats: 74.4 percent completion rate, 3,151 yards, 31 TDs, 3 INTs.
Missouri’s unbeaten season came to an end in a 41-31 loss at Oklahoma, though the Tigers did score late to cash as a 12-point underdog, the team’s seventh straight spread-cover. Missouri had just 57 rushing yards and four turnovers in the defeat.
The Tigers annihilated Texas Tech in Lubbock last year, winning 38-21 as a seven-point road underdog. Mizzou is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Both teams were held to a season low in points last week. For Texas Tech, it marked the first time all season it failed to score at least 42 points, while the Tigers had tallied at least 38 in each of their first five games. For the year, the Red Raiders are averaging 50 points and 581 yards per outing, while Missouri is putting up 40 points and 533.5 yards per game.
Tech’s Graham won’t be the only competent passer on the field tonight, as Mizzou sophomore Chase Daniel is having a stellar season himself with a 69 percent completion rate, 2,073 yards, 16 TDs, 6 INTs, though half of those picks came last week at Oklahoma.
Missouri is on an 8-1-1 ATS roll at home. On the flip side, Texas Tech is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 contests against winning teams and 7-12 ATS in its last 19 road games.
The over is 6-1 in Missouri’s last seven games and 3-0 in the last three series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER
(10) Cal (5-1, 3-3 ATS) at UCLA (4-2 SU and ATS)
The Golden Bears look to bounce back from a devastating loss to Oregon State when they head south to UCLA to battle a Bruins squad that’s still smarting from an ugly loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago.
Hours after top-ranked LSU lost a triple-overtime thriller at Kentucky, then-No. 2 Cal was poised to assume the No. 1 position in the rankings for the first time in 56 years. However, the Bears failed to finish their business against Oregon State, losing 31-28 as a 14-point home favorite. Cal played the entire game without starting QB Nate Longshore (sprained ankle), and although backup Kevin Riley played well in his first collegiate start (20 of 34, 294 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), he committed a crushing mistake when he stayed in bounds on the game’s final play, allowing the clock to expire with his team well within chip-shot field-goal range.
UCLA needed a week off after committing seven turnovers in an ugly 20-6 loss to previously winless Notre Dame on Oct. 6. The Bruins, who were 21-point home favorites in the contest, have scored six points in each of their two losses but 40 or more in three of their four wins.
This series has belonged to the host in this century, with all seven games going to the home team. UCLA is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six battles, however, getting the spread-cover last year when it lost 38-24 as an 18-point road underdog. In fact, the dog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 battles.
The straight-up winner is 10-0 ATS in UCLA’s last 10 contests. Also, despite the ugly loss to Notre Dame, the Bruins are still on a 16-5 ATS run at home, and they’re 8-2-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2004 season.
Cal is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight Pac-10 games.
The over is 5-2 in UCLA’s last seven, 4-2-1 in Cal’s last seven and 3-0 in the last three series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA and OVER
(13) Southern Cal (5-1, 2-4 ATS) at Notre Dame (1-6, 3-4 ATS)
The suddenly vulnerable Trojans travel to South Bend for their annual battle with Notre Dame, which is still searching for its first home victory of the season.
A week after suffering the biggest upset loss in college football history – a 24-23 defeat to Stanford as a 41-point home favorite – USC nearly got clipped again at home, rallying for a 20-13 victory over Arizona. The Trojans never threatened to cover as a 21-point favorite, the team’s third straight ATS loss, all to conference foes.
Notre Dame failed to capitalize on the momentum gained from its first victory of the season at UCLA, losing 27-13 at home to Boston College last Saturday. However, the Irish did barely sneak inside the 14½-point number, the team’s third consecutive cover after six straight ATS losses.
USC manhandled the Irish 44-24 in Los Angeles last year, covering as an 8½-point chalk. The Trojans have now won a school-record five straight against Notre Dame (4-1 ATS), including consecutive wins in South Bend.
The Trojans are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 road games, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 as a double-digit favorite and 2-7 ATS in their last nine as a double-digit road chalk.
Notre Dame is mired in ATS slumps of 2-6 at home, 3-7 as a home underdog and 1-4 against the Pac-10.
USC is on a 4-0 “under” streak, while Notre Dame has stayed low in seven of its last eight (6-1 “under” this year). However, the over is 5-2 in the last seven series meetings
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Miami, Fla. (4-3, 2-5 ATS) at Florida State (4-2, 2-4 ATS)
Two of the bitterest rivals in college football square off in Tallahassee, Fla., where Florida State looks to defeat Miami, Fla., for the third consecutive year.
The Seminoles have been idle for 10 days since suffering its second loss in as many years to Wake Forest, falling 24-21 as a 5½-point road chalk. Florida State committed four turnovers in the defeat and got killed at the point of attack, finishing on the wrong side of a 180-47 yard rushing disparity.
Miami’s offense continued to sputter in a 17-14 loss to Georgia Tech as a two-point home favorite. The Hurricanes, who have lost two in a row SU and three in a row ATS, managed just 232 total yards, with QB Kyle Wright going a pathetic 8-for-17 for 56 yards.
Florida State has upset Miami each of the last two years, posting a pair of ugly wins by scores of 13-10 as a four-point road ‘dog and 10-7 as a 3½-point home pup. In fact, the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six battles.
The winner of this rivalry has cashed at an 8-2 ATS clip the last 10 years, including 5-0 ATS in the last five.
The Canes are stuck in ATS ruts of 1-5 overall, 3-11 away from home (1-8 last nine), and 3-9 against winning teams.
Florida State is mired in ATS slumps of 2-6 as a favorite and 4-10 at home.
The last six clashes in this series have stayed well under the posted total..
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(7) Oregon (5-1 SU and ATS) at Washington (2-4, 3-3 ATS)
A week after destroying Washington State at home, Oregon will try to complete the season sweep of their Pacific Northwest rivals when they head to Seattle to face struggling Washington.
The Ducks bounced back from their first loss in a big way, obliterating Washington State 53-7 and easily covering as a 19-point home favorite. Oregon finished with 213 rushing yards, 338 passing yards and 30 first downs.
The Huskies suffered their fourth consecutive defeat a week ago at Arizona State, losing 44-20 as an 11½-point road underdog. Washington, which is 1-3 ATS and allowing 37 ppg during its losing streak, actually led 17-13 at the half but ended up surrendering 523 total yards (296 rushing).
The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings and 7-0 ATS in the last seven, with the Ducks winning the last three years in Eugene, Ore., by scores of 31-6, 45-21 and 34-14. In fact, each of the last five meetings has been decided by 20 points or more, with the average margin being 26 ppg. Finally, the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10.
Oregon is on spread runs of 29-15 overall, 11-2 as a favorite, 12-3 against losing teams and 9-3 in October.
Washington is just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 at Husky Stadium, but 8-4-1 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog.
The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON and UNDER
Michigan State (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at (1) Ohio State (7-0, 4-2 ATS)
Having risen to the top of the national rankings after the two previous No. 1 teams were upset, Ohio State will try to remain there when it welcomes Big Ten rival Michigan State to the Horseshoe.
Ohio State briefly stepped out of conference last week and waxed Kent State 48-3 as a 30½-point home favorite. The Buckeyes, who are on a 4-1 ATS roll, having given up a grand total of 46 points this season (five touchdowns), and only one team (Washington) has scored more than seven against Jim Tressel’s squad.
Michigan State tuned up for this showdown with a 52-27 rout of Indiana as a 3½-point home favorite, snapping a two-game slide in large part because of an incredible 368-22 edge in rushing yards. The Spartans have scored at least 28 points in six of their seven games, tallying 31 or more five times.
The Buckeyes have won the last five in this series, going 4-0-1 ATS. Last October, they went to East Lansing, Mich., as the top-ranked team in the land and rolled 38-7 as a 14-point road chalk. The favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings, with all six decided by double digits.
Ohio State’s four home wins have come by an average final score of 41-5. However, the four opponents were Youngstown State, Akron, Northwestern and Kent State.
The Buckeyes are on positive spread runs of 20-6 overall, 13-4 against winning teams and 12-4 at home.
Michigan State is 2-0 ATS on the road this year.
The over is 4-0 in Michigan State’s last four overall, 22-7 in its last 29 on the road, 6-3 in Ohio State’s last nine lined games and 3-1 in the last four series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and OVER
(14) Florida (4-2, 3-2 ATS) at (8) Kentucky (6-1, 5-1 ATS)
After knocking off top-ranked LSU in triple-overtime last week, Kentucky goes for its second consecutive huge upset when it entertains Florida in Lexington.
The Wildcats trailed LSU 27-14 with less than four minutes to go in the third quarter, but scored the final 13 points in regulation to force overtime, eventually prevailing 43-37 as a 9½-point home underdog. Rich Brooks’ team, which put up 375 total yards on LSU’s vaunted defense, is now 11-2 SU in its last 13 games and 10-2 ATS in lined games.
Florida took last week off, which was probably a good thing considering its devastating 28-24 loss at LSU. The Gators, who covered as a seven-point road underdog, blew a 24-14 fourth-quarter lead in suffering their second consecutive loss, which comes on the heels of an11-game winning streak. In fact, it’s Florida’s first two-game slide since coach Urban Meyer took over in 2005.
Both teams are 3-1 in conference play, stuck in a three-way tie with Alabama atop the SEC West standings.
Kentucky has not defeated Florida in more than two decades, and that includes three straight double-digit losses the last three years. However, the Wildcats have gone 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, all as an underdog. Finally, the visitor is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
This game features not only the top two quarterbacks in the SEC, but a pair of Heisman front-runners in Florida’s Tim Tebow and Kentucky’s Andre’ Woodson. Tebow is completing passes at a 65.5 percent clip for 1,455 yards with 13 TDs and three INTs, Meanwhile, Woodson (21-for-38, 250 yard, three TDs, two INTs vs. LSU last week) is completing 63.7 percent of his throws for 1,786 yards, 21 TDs and four INTs. The one difference between the two is Tebow is more mobile, having rushed for 500 yards and nine TDs.
The Gators are mired in ATS slumps of 3-9 on the road and 4-11 in SEC play. Also, they’re 0-8 ATS as a road favorite under Meyer.
Kentucky has won eight straight home games (6-1 ATS). The ‘Cats are also on a 6-1 ATS roll as an underdog.
The under is 3-1 in the last four series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
(25) Kansas State (4-2, 4-1 ATS) at Oklahoma State (4-3, 4-2 ATS)
Oklahoma State hopes to build on last week’s impressive victory at Nebraska when it hosts Kansas State in a Big 12 contest in Stillwater, Okla.
Normally a poor road team, the Cowboys went to Lincoln, Neb., and cold-cocked the Huskers 45-14 as a four-point underdog, taking a 38-0 lead into the locker room at the half. Oklahoma State finished with 317 rushing yards and 234 passing yards, didn’t commit a turnover and forced three while improving to 3-1 in its last four (3-0 ATS in lined games).
Kansas State rebounded from a tough loss to rival Kansas by throttling Colorado 47-20 as a 4½-point home favorite. The Wildcats rolled up 463 total yards and had no turnovers, while the defense forced four Colorado turnovers.
Oklahoma State has tallied at least 23 points in every game this year, including scoring 39 or more four times. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have scored 34 points or more in four of their last five games, with all four being victories.
The host has won the last three meetings both SU and ATS, including K-State’s 31-27 upset win as a three-point home underdog last year. The winner has cashed in each of the last five meetings, with the Wildcats going 4-1 SU and ATS during this stretch.
Kansas State has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last six lined games. However, it has failed to cover in nine of its last 13 on the highway.
Oklahoma State is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home.
The over is on runs of 20-7 for the Cowboys overall, 7-2 for the Wildcats overall, 19-7 for Kansas State on the road and 8-2 for Oklahoma State in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and OVER
(24) Michigan (5-2, 3-3 ATS) at Illinois (5-2, 4-2 ATS)
Michigan looks to keep pace with Ohio State atop the Big Ten standings when it travels to Champagne, Ill., to battle an Illiini squad that’s looking to get back on track after losing at Iowa a week ago.
The Wolverines have bounced back from a disastrous 0-2 start with five straight wins, which has pushed them back into the Top 25. Last week, Michigan ripped Purdue 48-21 as a five-point home favorite, finishing with a 189-39 edge in rushing yards. The Wolverines are outscoring their opponents 161-68 during their winning streak.
Illinois’ five-game winning streak came to an abrupt end in Iowa City last week, where the Illini lost 10-6 as a 4½-point road favorite. Illinois’ normally explosive offense, which had scored at least 21 points in each of its first seven games, had just 287 yards and two turnovers.
Michigan owns a five-game winning streak in this rivalry, but just 3-2 ATS. Last year, the Wolverines prevailed 30-19, their fourth consecutive double-digit win in the series, but they failed as an 18-point road chalk
Michigan is on positive ATS runs of 8-2 in conference play and 8-2 on the road.
Illinois is 8-1 ATS in its last nine against teams with a winning record, but 6-13 ATS in its last 19 in October.
The over is 4-1 in the last five series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN and OVER
(18) Auburn (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at (5) LSU (6-1, 3-4 ATS)
Riding a four-game winning streak, Auburn now will attempt to hand LSU its second consecutive loss when it travels to Baton Rouge for a battle between two of the three teams tied atop the SEC West standings.
Facing its toughest road test to date, LSU failed in Lexington, Ky., last week, losing 43-37 in triple-overtime as a 9½-point chalk despite 401 yards of total offense. A week after rallying from a 24-14 fourth-quarter deficit to beat Florida, the Tigers got caught from behind, blowing a 27-14 advantage with about 20 minutes to play.
Auburn has rebounded nicely from a pair of upset home losses to South Florida and Mississippi State with four consecutive SU and ATS wins, three of them coming in SEC play. That includes last week’s 9-7 last-second win at Arkansas, where freshman kicker Wes Byrum accounted for all of Auburn’s scoring with three field goals, including the 20-yard game-winner with 21 seconds left – the second time in three weeks Byrum won a game with a last-minute kick.
The host has delivered in this rivalry, winning the last seven meetings in a row (5-1-1 ATS). Auburn has gotten the cash in each of the last two, winning 7-3 as a 3½-point home chalk in 2006 and losing 20-17 as a 5½-point road underdog in 2005. The last three meetings have been decided by a total of eight points.
Auburn is on positive ATS runs of 10-4 on the road (2-0 this year) and 12-3 as an underdog, including six consecutive spread-covers in its last six as a pup.
While Auburn is on a 4-0 ATS roll, LSU has failed to cash in any of its last four. Also, LSU is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 conference games.
The straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in Auburn’s last 10 games.
The last seven series meetings have stayed under the total. Also, the under is 7-2 in Auburn’s last nine (3-0 last three).
ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN and UNDER