MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS:
Rutgers by 8
Doc Sports
4 unit Wash +3.5
3 Unit Giants +3
Strikepoint Sports
4 unit Tulsa -5
3 unit Jags -2
5 unit Tampa -2.5
Vegas Sports Informer
5 unit Seattle -3
4 unit Jax/Pitt over 39
3 unit Rutgers -10
2 unit Tulsa -5
6 unit LSU -4
Robert Ferringo
4.5 unit LSU -4
4 unit Tampa -2.5
1.5 unit under 40 gaints/tampa
2.5 unit Pitt +3 -120
2 unit teaser SD-2 Under 47.5 Sea/Wash
1 unit under 39.5 Jax/pitt
Pointwise Phones
3* Jacksonville, Seattle
Jeff Benton
Steelers 15*
Matt Rivers
MONSTER 200,000* BURIAL Plus Bonus Lock
1. 200,000* Steelers
Dr Bob
Saturday
SEATTLE (-3 ½) 23 Washington 21
My math model favors Seattle by only ½ a point at home the math would favor Washington by ½ a point if Deion Branch doesn’t play. With Washington’s offense better with Collins at quarterback and their defense not as good with a thin defensive backfield there is now some value in the over in this game. I’ll lean with Washington plus the points and I’ll lean with the Over.
PITTSBURGH 20 Jacksonville (-2 ½) 19
I’ll lean with Pittsburgh at +2 ½ or less, I’d consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at +3 and I’d take the Steelers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ or more.
DR BOB
Rutgers (-10) vs Ball State: Math favors Rutgers pretty significantly, but situations are strongly in favor of Ball State. At this point I’ll pick Rutgers by 10 and thus have no opinion.
Globalwide Sports
NCAA Football Ball State vs. Rutgers
Pick: Ball State +11
We have all seen by now that the favorites aren't the way to go in the bowl games. The public hammers the favorites thinking that they are going to blow out the other teams. It just doesn't happen like this. When teams like Ball State come in to play, the public knows nothing about them and thinks they are going to get killed. Ball State has covered the spread 7 out of 11 games this year and continue to be a great bet. Rutgers has only won 5 out of 11, proving again that people love to bet on them. This isn't the Rutgers of last year. This is a Ball State team that only lost by 11 on the road to a much better Illinois team. Ball State can't blow teams out but they can stay in games. That's all we need.
THE SPORTS MEMO
Washington +4 at Seattle O/U 40
Recommendation: Washington
It has been one hell of a run for the Washington Redskins after
being left for dead with a late season four-game losing streak.
They managed to rally, and it came from the unlikely source of
quarterback Todd Collins, who now looks like one of the top 15
signal callers in the league. And with Collins entering the picture,
we miraculously got a response out of running back Clinton Portis,
who is known for not showing up for weeks at a time. His surge
over the last three games suddenly makes the Redskins halfway
decent with the football, something they unfortunately lacked at
times with Jason Campbell under center. It certainly wasn’t all
Campbell’s fault, but Collins has produced not only great stats
and wins, but a confidence this team played much of the season
without. Seattle played not only in one of the weakest divisions in
the league, but their schedule was extremely easy. In 16 games,
they played two teams that made the playoffs and their last three
opponents finished the season a combined 16 games under .500.
In those last three games, the Seahawks went 1-2. And while we
recognize the lack of importance in some of those due to having
the NFC wrapped up weeks ago, we also feel it showcases Seattle
as no more than a slightly above average football team – certainly
similar to what they’ll face in Washington. To really break things
down we see Seattle playing just four games against teams with
a .500 record or better. They went 2-2 SU in those four, being
outscored by a combined total of 84-78. Washington on the other
hand played 10 teams that were .500 or better, going a respectable
4-6 SU and being outscored 222-200. The Redskins’ schedule
also ranked second in the league. As for strategy, Seattle has
really morphed into a pass-happy team with Shaun Alexander less
than 100% for most of the season. After ranking 18th in passing
and 10th in rushing attempts a year ago, that has now switched
to 6th in passing and 20th in rushing. Washington has been solid
against the pass, holding Brett Favre, Eli Manning and Tony Romo
to six TDs and six INTs in five games. Matt Hasselbeck put together
a monster season on paper with nearly 4,000 yards passing,
but it is hard to ignore he played 12 games against the bottom
half of the league in terms of yards per game passing allowed.
Washington’s current momentum is certainly acknowledged here,
but it is the balance on offense and continued production from the
defense that makes them the play. Throw in Seattle’s worth being
in serious question due to poor scheduling (32nd-ranked schedule)
and we see plenty of value with the battle tested Redskins.
Jacksonville -1 at Pittsburgh O/U 37.5
Recommendation: Jacksonville
This one has some ingredients for a little revenge factor after
Jacksonville waltzed into Heinz Field and statistically dominated
the Steelers en route to a 29-22 victory. That wasn’t even a month
ago, but things have changed dramatically for Pittsburgh after multiple
key and still lingering injuries. Jacksonville on the other hand,
continued pushing forward, looking more and more like a worthy
contestant of the Patriots if they do in fact reach that point. In fact,
the Jags are without a doubt, the sexiest team in the NFL right
now. And who could blame anyone for thinking that way? The move
to David Garrard seemed bold at the time, but the once defensiveminded,
20 points per game AFC middleweight, turned into having
one of the best and most efficient offenses in the league. Passing
the ball seems easy with Garrard, who makes few if any mistakes.
The two-headed running attack of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-
Drew helped make Jacksonville the No. 2-ranked rush offense in
the league. And while everyone is drooling over the Jags’ offensive
explosion, few notice they still were ranked in the top 10 in almost
every defensive category. Pittsburgh just wasn’t the same team to
close out the year. Multiple injuries to key players exposed them as
no more than a slightly above average team. And injuries or not,
Jacksonville and New England both put up 421 yards of offense –
the Pats via the pass, and the Jaguars on the ground. In fact, Pittsburgh’s
weak schedule should be noted when analyzing the stout
defensive numbers they put up. Almost half of their schedule featured
teams that ranked in the bottom ten in the league in total offense.
Ben Roethlisberger and Garrard are very similar in that they
are highly efficient and never seem to try and do too much. This
style of play and the success it equaled was a clear result of being
able to run the football. Both teams rank second and third in rushing
attempts and near the bottom in passing attempts. Pittsburgh
will still run the ball and should have success with Najeh Davenport,
but us siding with Jacksonville has little to do with Parker not being
there. The Jaguars played in the better division, beat four playoff
teams -- two of which without Garrard -- and unlike Pittsburgh,
comes into this one on a roll and relatively healthy. Don’t get intimidated
with a January playoff game in Heinz Field or the revenge
angle, you’ll end up missing out on who is the clearly better team.
Brandon Lang
Saturday
20 Dime
JAGUARS
10 Dime
UCLA (college hoops)
5 Dime
OVER Jacksonville/Pittsburgh
WASHINGTON (college hoops)
20 Dime Jaguars - This team dominated here once before, this can dominate at Heinz Field once again. I have all the confidence in the world that Jacksonville will be moving along in the AFC Playoffs today, as it showed me the heart and dedication of a true road warrior when it came onto this very field just a few weeks back, and bullied the bully. The Jaguars ran the ball, defended the ball, hit the home team where it counted most and absolutely embarrassed the Steelers on their turf. And that was in the worst possible weather conditions.
Now it's for all the marbles. Win or you go home. And I like our chances with a football team that has two running backs who aren't afraid to shoulder the burden in case their 'green' quarterback folds under pressure in his first playoff start. We have, in my eyes, one of the league's best blocking backs (Jones-Drew) to hang in the pocket with David Garrard on pass plays, and we have a confident offensive line to protect the passing game. This offense isn't one of those of units that does its part and banks on the defense to make plays – it feeds off the stop unit to put points on the board and games out of reach.
And while the Jaguars needed an extra push to put the first game out of reach – a late surge, if you will – that game wasn't as close as the score indicated, and the fact they may have celebrated too early in that one, leads me to believe the Jags might have learned their lesson in that game. We cannot take a thing from the defense that is 10th in the NFL in points allowed at 19.0, and that finished the regular season with a plus-9 turnover differential.
I know all about Pittsburgh's No. 1 ranked defense, but this is a dinged-up football team that plummeted from darling-status under first-year coach Mike Tomlin, over the final third of the season. And without Willie Parker to tend to the time-clock management, and putting all the pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, I don't see much from this offense today.
Play the road chalk here.
5 Dime Over - These teams combined for 51 points and more than 600 yards when they faced off in Pittsburgh three weeks ago. And as you recall, that game was played in horrible conditions that included wind, snow, rain and frigid temperatures. So with the weather forecast calling for tame conditions on Saturday night, there’s no reason to think these two won’t light up the scoreboard again.
After all, just look at the numbers: Jacksonville scored 24 points or more in each of its final 10 games, including averaging 26.3 in six road contests. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh put up 22, 41 and 21 points in its last three outings and – if you take out that 3-0 final against Miami played in pig slop – the Steelers averaged 28.3 points at home. The Jags went over the total in each of their final six games and seven of eight on the road.
Meanwhile, the Steelers topped the total in their last three overall, and the over is an astounding 39-15-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 56 home games, including 4-0 in the playoffs. This is a license to print money here.
Stan Sharp
Stan Sharp | NFL Side
triple-dime bet SEA -3.0 vs WAS
Analysis: Stan is Betting Seattle today as Stan notes that in Washington's 4 Game winning streak they really didn't beat any of the elite teams. The only Playoff team that they beat was the Giants who were up & down all year. TAKE SEATTLE as STAN'S NFL WILDCARD BIG BET OF THE MONTH and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
King Creole
King Creole | CFB Side
triple-dime bet Ball St. 11.0 vs Rutgers
3*** BEST BET on: BALL STATE CARDINALS
*the prudent player will get a line of +10.5 or higher in this game
In a Bowl battle of a couple of teams who have EACH lost 5 games on the season, you ALWAYS want to play on the hotter team. Since 1986, BOWL teams with at least 5 losses on the year are a PERFECT 7-0 ATS off BB SU wins (Ball State) against another BOWL team with at least 5 losses on the year that's off a SU loss (Rutgers). Our only other qualifier so far during this Bowl season was CENTRAL MICHIGAN plsu the points against Purdue... and they (naturally) came away with the ATS win.
In a fantastic System that's been GREAT over the years.... and REALLY hot so far during THIS Bowl season, we want to go AGAINST Bowl teams who are a huge high-scoring game in which they scored AND allowed a lot of points. We start with a Sysyrem that's gone 8-17 ATS so far this year in the Bowls. And that's playing AGAINST Bowl teams who scored 35+ points in their last game of the year (Like Rutgers). This has also gone 1-11 ATS since December 28th. And if our 'play against' teams ALSO scored 35+ points in that last game, the results improve to a PERFECT 0-5 ATS this Bowl season. This has ALWAYS been a fantastic situation to play against. It's gone 1-10 ATS in the last 2 years (after scoring AND allowing 35+ points).... and DOUBLE-DIGIT favorites in this spot (like RUTGERS) are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS dating all the way back to the 1985 season.
Laying the big points in a Bowl game will not generate very consistent profits for you. In the last 10 years, DOUBLE-DIGIT Bowl favorites playing off a SU loss (like Rutgers) are 5-16 ATS.... and a PERFECT 0-4 ATS in the last 4 years. Our only other qualifier so far this Bowl season was to play AGAINST Boise State (-10.5) vs East Carolina. Remember what happened in that Hawaii Bowl? East Carolina won OUTRIGHT 41-28 as a double digit underdog.
Ron Raymond
Redskins
Pitt
Jwhip
Steelers +3 (3 Unit)
Kelso
50 units jags-2 1/2
5 units wash +3 1/2
Unders both games 3 units
Ball st +11 for 5 units
GOLD SHEET
COLLEGE HOOPS
**KEY RELEASES **
SOUTH FLORIDA Plus over Syracuse
OHIO U. by 14 over Bowling Green
Burns MAIN EVENT*25-14 L39 CFB, 13-2 L15 BIG EAST
Analysis: I'm taking the points with BALL STATE. The Scarlet Knights have enjoyed a remarkable turn-around the last couple of years and they've got a really solid team. However, regardless of what they may say, the Knights did not envision themselves playing in Canada, five days into the new year. This was a team that was ranked as highly as #10 at one point in the season. They were thinking BCS Bowl from before the time the season even started. Note that the Knights are just 7-18 SU (8-16-1 ATS) the last 25 times they played with two week's of rest in between games, including a double-digit home loss to Maryland after their bye week earlier this season. Additionally, note that the Knights only two road wins this season came at Syracuse and Army. Those teams went a combined 5-19! The Cardinals aren't from a big name conference. However, they closed out the season with back to back impressive wins, outscoring Toledo and Northern Illinois by a combined score of 68-41. Perhaps more importantly, they're very happy to be here. The Cardinals have shown an ability to play well on the road, as they won at Navy and lost by just a point to Nebraska. They also won road games at both Eastern and Western Michigan. Additionally, the Cardinals were 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season and are now 16-8 ATS in that role since 2005. Look for a highly motivated effort, as they give the Knights all they can handle and improve to 9-2 ATS the last 11 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points. *Main Event
Burns
Main event-------Ball st
WC RD TOY-------under pit/jax
Blowout winner----under sea/wash
Ethan Law- Sea single dime and opinion on Sea/Was under
CFB- Rutgers single dime
Marco D'Angelo- Pitt double dime
Matty O'Shea- Rutgers/Ball st under single dime
Psychic
NCAAF
3 units Ball State +11
3 units Washington +3.5
2 units over 39
3 units Jacksonville -2.5
2 units over 39.5
Gold Medal Club
10* Ball State +11.5
NBA: 25* Detroit -2.5
CBB:
25* Michigan +12.5
25* Oregon +6.5
10* Oregon ML +240
10* Maryland ML +115
10 Butler -10
Bob Balfe
NFL Football
Washington +3.5 over Seattle
Take the Skins.
Pittsburgh +2.5 over Jacksonville
Take the Steelers.
College Football
Ball State +11 over Rutgers
Either way 11 points is too many. Take Ball State.
NBA Basketball
Pistons/Celtics Over 180.5
College Basketball
UConn +5.5 over Notre Dame
ATS LOCK
4 Jacksonville -2 1/2
Hoops
8 Middle Tenn St. -3 1/2
8 Wisc G B -5
7 Stanford -6
6 So Alabama -3 1/2
2 Unit Round Robin
5 Deleware +7
ATS FINANCIAL
3 Wash +3 1/2
Hoops
4 S Florida +8 1/2
4 Louisville -2 1/2
3 Valpariasio +11 1/2