Teddy June’s NFL Wildcard Game of the Week
My 10* NFL Wildcard Game of the Week is the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over the Washington Redskins. Here are two teams that on paper enter this playoff matchup in completely different ways. Washington SU/ATS winners of 4 straight to grab the wildcard spot. Seattle meanwhile was arguably the hottest team in the NFL in late November early December then packed in after clinching the division and lost 2 of their last 3 games SU/ATS. That being said each team’s motivation to end the year was completely different. The Redskins were in must win situations each game to get into the playoffs while the Seahawks clinched the division weeks ago and had very little motivation to show up until this game. They were in a huge letdown situation against Carolina, a game I cashed one of my Shocker selections on with the Panthers winning outright and then they bounced back nicely against Baltimore at home. Then traveled to Atlanta where nobody expected them to show up at all with nothing to play for, Hasselback played about a half of football and most starters were rested in the 2nd half on route to a very close loss. What has been impressive for the Seahawks has been their home field advantage over the years. They play in one of the loudest best home fields in the NFL and year after year it is one of the toughest places to go in and steal a one. It has been no different this year as Seattle finished the year 7-1 SU. What has impressed me this season has been their play after their mid season bye week. They come back travel to Cleveland a team that was as hot as anyone at that time and play a hard fought game on route to a 3 point loss. Then reel off 5 wins SU/ATS including 2 tough road games. Offensively they have been led by a strong passing attack with Matt Hasselback having a fantastic year, 91.4 QB rating, 3966 passing yards, 28 TD’s, and 12 INT’s. Defensively I like the way Seattle ranked out in some key categories, 6th in points allowed, 4th in sacks, 5th in INT’s and 3rd in Forced Fumbles. All of that points to the real Todd Collins showing up this Saturday after he has guided to Redskins team the last few weeks with performances over his head. I expect the Seahawks to get a lot of pressure on Collins forcing him into several mistakes. Redskins want to take pressure off of him with a heavy dose of running however their running game is better on paper than it is on the field, while the Seahawks run defense is one of the best and most underrated in the league. Without an effective running game to fall back on, Collins and the Redskins offensive line will really struggle by the Seahawks disguised coverage and their ability to get after the quarterback. Washington’s run defense has been stellar this year however the pass defense has suffered the huge blow with the loss of Sean Taylor and this has certainly dropped the level of play in the secondary. They rank 16th in the NFL in passing yards against but did not face a passing game that could roast them like Hasselback and crew are capable of (Dallas had packed it in). The Redskins have done a terrific job of bouncing back from everything that has occurred surrounding this team this year and getting into the playoffs. However, the nice story ends today as they get a Seattle team who gets no respect from anyone in the media and will play with a chip on their shoulder at home. It is noteworthy that the Seahawks are 5-0 ATS their last 5 home games (all listed as favorite) and a perfect 7-0 ATS their last 7 games at home against the NFC East. My 10* NFL Wildcard Game of the Week is the Seattle Seahawks minus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
Teddy June’s NFL Wildcard Saturday Winner (NFL Playoffs Last Year: 8-4 66%)
My 10* NFL Wildcard Saturday Winner is the Pittsburgh Steelers plus the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Steelers finished the year 10-6 SU and the Jaguars finished 11-5 SU. These two met just a few weeks ago in Pittsburgh in a game that Jacksonville thoroughly dominated with their running attack. However, now Pittsburgh gets the opportunity to enact revenge against a team that handed them their only home loss on the season. Statically speaking this Steelers squad ranks as one of the best defenses in the NFL this season and with that being said they were absolutely embarrassed on their home field against Jacksonville. They rank 1st in total yards against, 3rd in passing yards against, 3rd in rushing yards against, and 2nd in points allowed per game. There may be no bigger game from a motivational stand point than Pittsburgh this weekend against the Jaguars as they play with a huge revenge angle. Both defenses come in a bit banged up missing some key guys but the Pittsburgh defense is playing with a great deal of motivation. Offensively Pittsburgh will be without Willie Parker, so Najeh Davenport will take on the load. He is more than capable of taking this job and has actually been averaging a solid .6 more yards per carry than Parker this season. Roethlisberger has had a terrific year passing for 3158 yards, 32 TD’s, 11 INT’s and finishing the regular season with a QB rating of 104.1. Unlike Garrard, Big Ben has a great deal of playoff experience which should pay dividends for the Steelers in this matchup. The bottom line is the Steelers come into this game with a great deal of motivation, they are getting disrespected by everyone in the sports media and I expect an extremely inspired effort tonight. I look for them to make the adjustments from the previous meeting and take down a Jacksonville team getting entirely too much public support. We have an experience playoff team at home in one of the toughest places to play getting points against an overvalued public team, recipe for a winner. Also important to note Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS their last 4 playoff road games. My 10* NFL Wildcard Saturday Winner is the Pittsburgh Steelers plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
Saturday Recap:
10* Ball State Cardinals
10* Seattle Seahawks
10* Pittsburgh Steelers
Teddy June’s NFL Wildcard Sunday Winner
My 10* NFL Wildcard Sunday Winner is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over the New York Giants. The Buccaneers enter 9-7 SU/ATS and the New York Giants enter 10-6 SU/ATS. Both teams excelled in their current home/away position as Tampa was 6-2 SU at home and New York was 6-1 SU away from home. Tampa has packed it in for the playoffs for several weeks now as they got some rest and got healthy with their playoff position was clinched weeks ago. The bottom line offensively for this Bucs squad has been when Jeff Garcia is healthy they win and when he’s not they struggle. Garcia when healthy this year had a very good, QB rating of 94.6, 2440 passing yards, 13 TD’s, and 4 INT’s. Veteran wide receiver Joey Galloway has had a break out year after having been quiet the last few years, 57 catches, 1014 receiving yards and a tremendous 17.8 yards per catch. The Giants are a team that has been very up and down this year, there are led by the much publicized running attack and defensive line. Their weakness has been the normal late season collapse by Eli Manning. Manning has once again struggled mightily down the stretch of the season and it certainly has not helped that his receiving core has been less than good. Also the loss of Shockey certainly plays a role as he is a big target for defenses and the passing game. The Tampa defense has been stellar at stopping the pass this year ranking number 1 in the NFL against the pass. Overall very strong on defense ranking 2nd in the NFL in total yards allowed and 3rd in the NFL in points allowed. This is the last team a struggling Eli Manning (had a good last game only to fold in the 4th quarter) wants to face. Bucs primary focus coming in will be to stop the run while allowing for the confusing passing coverage’s to take care of itself. Offensively Bucs will bring in a solid balanced attack and should be able to take advantage of a weak Giants secondary. I am very pleased with the way this game setup, Tampa rested its starters and key players the last several weeks and got healthy. Meanwhile, the Giants put in a valiant effort against the Patriots last week and I absolutely love the fact they did. Now they face the game after the Patriots letdown, something that plagued teams all year long in the NFL. If we take a look at the last several weeks of the regular season we see teams the week after playing the Patriots really struggle, Buffalo lost SU/ATS, Philadelphia lost SU/ATS, Baltimore lost SU/ATS, Pittsburgh lost SU/ATS, Jets lost SU/covered ATS, and Miami lost SU/ATS. Giants are the next victim tonight and I expect an inspired effort from a Buccaneers team who has not gotten much respect all year this season in the NFC. My 10* NFL Wildcard Sunday Winner is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.
Teddy June’s NFL Wildcard Total of the Week
My 10* NFL Wildcard Total of the Week is the Tennessee Titans versus the San Diego Chargers Under the Posted Total. Both of these teams success this season has been predicated on their solid defense. Tennessee’s defense especially with a healthy Haynesworth has been stellar, ranking 5th in the NFL in total yards against, 10th against the pass, 5th against the rush and 8th in points allowed. San Diego while statically does not rank as high, this is mostly based on the fact of how vastly this defense has transformed in their recent success. They however do rank 5TH in the NFL in points allowed and have not allowed more than 17 points in a game since 11/18 which is also the last time they lost. The last time these two teams met it squeaked under the total with a big 2nd half from San Diego and it went in overtime. This was mostly due to turnovers, 4 interceptions in total allowed for shorter field position and easier scores. I expect both these teams to come in with the game plan of not letting their young quarterbacks lose the game for them. Rivers and Young have struggled this season and I don’t expect either coach to get to aggressive when each has a strong running attack. Turner does not want to lose this game because he was hired to win this particular game, expect Tomlinson to be the main focal point. While Fisher is known to play ball control and has the running game to do so, he knows his team simply will not be able to compete in any sort of a shootout. That means short passes, a big establishment of the run game and limiting the chances each team will take. Each will look to control the clock and grind this football game out. If Collins goes at quarterback instead of Young I still expect the same game plan. My 10* NFL Wildcard Total of the Week is the Tennessee Titans versus the San Diego Chargers under the Posted Total.
Sunday Recap:
10* Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10* Tennessee and San Diego Under the Posted Total
Accu picks
5* Bowl GOY Over in Ball State
5* College GOY Missouris State
4* Wash State
3* Baylor
3* Ohio
4* Phx (nba)
3* Detroit(nba)
THE LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: WASHINGTON REDSKINS vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Play: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3
Comments: THE LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3^^^ Emotions can only carry you so far. Redskins playing with a heavy heart but this isn't a made for TV drama, this is real life and people will be playing to win and we feel the rubber meets the road today and Washington's run comes to an end. We feel that you're asking too much of this team as they are over extended. The public loves this team and they have been elevated because of their win last week but how can we give any credit to a team that beat a Cowboy's team that clearly were sand bagging as they had the #1 spot locked up and were playing the scrubs. Bottom line here is the Redskins are on a short week which immediately favors the home team of Seattle. Washington is now playing their third road game in four weeks and what a trip for this one as they go coast to coast and will be playing a team who like the home field as Seattle has won 5 straight at home, 6-1 ATS as a home favorite 18-7 ATS in home games in their last 25 games. Today's theme in the NFL is about under rated or under the radar teams. Speaking of, have we forgotten about Seattle's defense? On defense the Seahawks are one of the more underrated units in the league after allowing only 18.2 points per game. Get to know these names Lofa Tatupu, Marcus Trufant and Patrick Kerney as you'll be hearing them all day in a Seattle win.
THE LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Play: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -2.5
Comments: THE LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -2.5^^^ We aren't scared to say it. Pittsburgh is one of the most over rated teams in the NFL play-offs. We gave you an upset over Pitt mid season vs the Jets as everyone thought this team was going to steam roll everyone and we could literally take that write-up and paste it here as we ask again who has the Steelers beat to impress anyone enough to invest money on them? Sure they look great when they are beating up on teams with losing records or the weak AFC North. 6 of their 16 games were against Cincinnati Cleveland and Baltimore who by the way they lost to but that game didn't mean much as San Diego spoiled the party by securing the third seed. They did the deed by dominating over a weak Buffalo team in week 2, Miami who is in the NFL cellar, St. Louis and the leagues worst offense statistically in the 49'ers. Other than a win over Seattle, Pitt has not beaten anyone of quality and when faced with a challenge, they have folded. Problem is they have only faced a tough task twice this season vs the Patriots and Jacksonville. Lets add in losses to Arizona and the Jets. Here's the deal. We told you long ago that Big Ben can be rattled easily by a physical defense. If all you do is watch ESPN highlights, you'll miss that detail. It doesn't help that his offensive line is dreadful and almost gave up the record for most sacks allowed by mid season. This plays into a rough and tough smash you in the mouth defense like Jacksonville. Play-offs are about momentum and Pittsburgh let that go early as they lost 3 out of their last 4 games. Jacksonville comes in here winning six out of their last eight games and look to be an under the radar dark horse to run the table.
yourwinningpicks NFL:
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) VS. Washington Redskins: The Redskins completed the season on a roll and that positive momentum is what can lead them to an upset here of the Seahawks. The fact of the matter is that Seattle is at home and they play in on of the toughest environments in football as Qwest Field is almost impossible for opposing teams to deal with as far as noise from the crowd is concerned. We also don’t like the fact that Washington is traveling across the country for this contest and Seattle has been very profitable at home. This one should be close going into the fourth but the home team should pull away to a 10 point victory. THE PICK: Seattle Seahawks and OVER
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: It certainly is gut check time for the Steelers as this is a rematch from a few weeks ago when the Jaguars went up to Pittsburgh and absolutely ran them out of the building. The line value is squarely in the Steelers’ favor here as home underdogs in the playoffs are 18-9 ATS. We also find it hard to believe that the Jaguars can win two in a row in the Pittsburgh cold. There should be more points scored in this game that many expect however so the OVER is a very strong play here. THE PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers and OVER (BEST BET ON OVER)
Paul Leiner
25* NBA Over 181.5 Bos/Det
25* NFL Over 40 Pitt/Jax
10* NFL Seahawks -3.5
10* CFB Rutgers -10.5
free play 5* CBB St Johns -2.5
All Star Selections
10* Play Seattle (-3) over Washington
5* Play Pittsburgh (+3) over Jacksonville
The P r e z
Seattle Seahawks
-3.0 (-120) / 5 units 5* - Best Bet – Sea -3 -120 vs Washington
4:30p The P r e z
Washington Redskins
Seattle Seahawks
o39.0 (-110) / 3 units 3* - Action – Sea and Wash OVER 39
8:00p The P r e z
Jacksonville Jaguars
Pittsburgh Steelers
u40.0 (-110) / 3 units 3* - Action – Pitt and Jax UNDER 40
Gameday
4* Michigan State
Special K freebie
SATURDAY FREE PICK : OHIO U. -5
Jim Krooger
James Madison
-2.5 / 3 units
UNLV
-8.0 / 3 units
Northern Iowa
+1.5 / 3 units
Baylor
-1.0 / 3 units
Executive Sportsline
500* Steelers.
TEDDY Covers
20* Seattle
Ryan
3* Washington
BIG AL
Championship PAC 10 GOY--CAL
Blue chip -Gonzaga
Vegas Crusher--St Mary
Line Mover--Pistons
10 Dimes--A+M
Offshore Stem--Seattle over
Computer Boys GOY--Pittsburgh
Lockoftheday.
Saturday, January 5th, 2008
Today's Lock: Jacksonville Jaguars
A win last night with the Nuggets.
The poor Steelers are on the downslide. Their defense looked like Swiss cheese near the end of the season. Big Ben has been hobbled by injuries. Willie Parker is out for the year. The Jags pummeled the Steelers just a few weeks ago. This line opened at -1. We got it at -1.5. You can take -2.5 now, or the moneyline. It shouldn't matter. This will be a hard fought game, but the Jags should prevail.
December Record: 4-1
RAS
Towson Over 133
Boise Over 144.5
1 Unit each
LT Profits:
NFL
Seattle Under
Jacksonville Under
A-Play:
Chip Shot...St Mary's
Double Play...Seahawks, Kentucky
Private Players Club...Washington U.
Major Shocker...Steelers, Providence
Vegas Hotline...UTEP
Pure Profit:
Back Room...Air Force
Diamond...Baylor
Special Total...Redskins Under
Power Play Underdog GOY...No Iowa (they were +2..now -1)
High Roller...Hawaii
Money Move..Jacksonville
Consensus...Long Beach State
Tony Basich
CBB GOM Akron
The Captain...25* Lock UNLV
MTI
4'-Star Washington +3' over SEATTLE - Before the season started, it looked like the Seahawks had some tough games on their schedule. They had the Ravens, the Steelers, Bengals, Eagles, Panthers, Bears and Saints. The only team on this list that was not a HUGE disappointment this season was the Steelers. Seattle lost their game vs the Steelers 21-0. The fact that Seattle was 10-6 vs a bevy of disappointing non-divisional opponents while playing in the weakest division in the league (the NFC West was 26-38 this season), is not a ringing endorsement of this team. Shaun Alexander had a terrible season, scoring a total of only four touchdowns. This is bad new of the Seahawks' chances vs a brutal Redskins rushing defense. Over the last four games of the season, Washington has allowed 71.8 rushing yards per game and 3.09 yardsv per carry. They have allowed only 50.3% completions and 4.81 yards per pass attempt. All of these numbers are in the top three in the league and the only teams ahead of the Redskins in any of these categories are the Patriots and Jaguars. That's good company. What makes they numbers even more compelling is that the Redskins faced the Bears, Giants, Vikings and Cowboys over the last four weeks of the season. Washington held Rookie of the Year Adrian Peterson to 27 yards rushing and, versus Dallas, they held Marion Barber to MINUS six yards on six attempts and Julius Jones to 7 yards on 8 attempts.
The shooting death of Sean Taylor has supremely motivated the Redskins and we don't see the over-rated Seahawks doing much to slow them down.
Todd Collins steps in for the injured Jason Campbell here, and this is actually good for the Redskins. Collins has the experience to not get flustered in a road playoff game, whereas Campbell might not have been ready for prime time. With Cooley, Moss and Portis out of the backfield, Collins has more than enough support to put enough points on the board to secure the victory.
The Seahawks have limped into the playoffs, losing to the Panthers and Falcons over the last three weeks of the season, beating only the Ravens at home. It will be very hard for the Seahawks to match Washington's intensity here. The 3' points we are getting has tremendous potential to turn a SU loss into an ATS win because the Redskins' defense will keep the Seahawks' offense in check. That said, perhaps the best play here is to take the Redskins on the moneyline. However, we'll take the 3' for plenty of insurance. Washington +3' is our NFL Playoff Play of the Year this season.
MTi's FORECAST: Washington 20 SEATTLE 13
3-Star Washington at Seattle UNDER 40' - The way Washington's defense is playing, it's hard to believe that this game has the highest OU line of the weekend. The shooting death of Sean Taylor has motivated the Redskins' defense and a defense is best motivated by passion and intensity, which produces adrenaline. Too much adrenaline can be harmful to an offense, but a pumped up defense can get to the quarterback and stuff the run. The hassling of Hasselbeck will force the Seahawks to focus on the rush with Shaun Alexander and Maurice Morris. We look for 6+ punts from both teams. Take the UNDER.
MTi's FORECAST: Washington 20 SEATTLE 13
Seabass:
20* Pitt/Jax under
100* Sea
Drew Gordon:
Tonight's Games...
1. 300,000* Jaguars
2. 50,000* Baylor
1. Jaguars- What has changed in the last 3 weeks that makes you believe the Steelers can win this game? Because all I see is negatives... The Steelers lost their star RB Willie Parker (at the time the league's leading rusher), 2nd string LT Max Starks (down to 3rd string LT Trai Essex), are still be without their best run-stuffing lineman in Aaron Smith, and while S Troy Polamalu will play, he is nowhere near 100%. In other words, if anything has changed, its the Steelers and their mounting injuries.
Its hard to ignore the fact the once feared Steelers run defense is struggling mightily, allowing 164 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry (absolutely unacceptable) over that span. If you can't stop the run against Jacksonville, you can't win, as we saw 3 weeks ago when Taylor/Jones-Drew rumbled for a combined 216 yards! Also, no longer considered a "game-manager," David Garrard can and will make the Steelers pay for overplaying the run.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh's Najeh Davenport will have his work cut out for him, as this Jaguars run-defense is rock-solid, led by star DT Henderson. Davenport is a decent player, but he's not the home-run threat Parker was, and the Jaguars defense will benefit from that. Also, for all the talk about the Steelers O-line, did you know Roethlisberger was the second most sacked QB in the NFL this season (47 times), trailing only Detroit's Kitna... Not a good sign against an agressive and ball-hawking defense (CB Mathis and S Nelson are both excellent).
Bottom line, even with their full compliment of players, this would be a tough game for the Steelers, but where they are right now, missing so many key pieces, this is Jacksonville's game to lose. We've learned not to underesimate the Steelers over the years, but in this case, they are being beaten at their own game, as the Jaguars will pound the Steelers in submission on both sides of the ball tonight.
Take the Jaguars comfortably over the Steelers as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Baylor- Got to like the Bears in this one, as Arkansas' inexperience under a new head coach Pelfrey shows up in this neutral court match up. While they've shown improvment, the Razorbacks still have a long way to go before we consider them consistent. Their recent loss to Appalachian State at home as 16'-point favorites is a perfect example. Despite turning the ball over 22 times, App. State shot 66% from the field to win outright 74-67 in the Razorbacks house no less!
Baylor on the other hand, has benefited from continuity and a veteran-laden roster, led by junior G Jerrells and his 14 ppg and nearly 4 assists/game. Their 4-guard attack makes it difficult for a frontcourt-heavy team like Arkansas to defend them, because their Bigs don't want to leave the paint. However, that plays right into the hands of this Bears team, as they tickle the twine to the tune of 48% from the field and 39% from 3-point!
While Arkansas's defensive numbers are good, they've been unimpressive when it comes to defending anywhere else but home. Ugly losses at Oklahoma, and against Providence on a neutral court, have shown the Razorbacks penchant for falling asleep when they're not protecting their own house. More of the same tonight, as Baylor will not stop coming at them.
Bottom line, while oddsmakers expected this game to be close, I couldn't disagree more. The Razorbacks are still learning, and their about to get a tough lesson from this Baylor squad... You cannot allow the intensity to drop off on the road, and that's exactly what happens to this Arkansas team tonight, as Baylor rolls in this one!
Take Baylor comfortably over Arkansas in this college hoops match up.
Today's Games...
1. 50,000* Redskins
2. 50,000* James Madison