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NFL Best Bet Sides

3 Star Selection
GREEN BAY (-7.5) 33 Seattle 14

Seattle played well last week in beating Washington 35-14, but two long interception returns for touchdowns broke open a close game and the Seahawks are still barely better than an average team overall. Seattle is just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and WR Deion Branch on the field (Hasselbeck struggled in the 4-plus games without Branch) and the Seahawks’ defense is just 0.1 yppl better than average even after excluding their week 17 game against the Falcons when their backups played a lot of snaps. Seattle looks like a pretty good team because they out-gained their foes 5.4 yppl to 4.9 yppl, but they faced a very easy schedule of teams. Green Bay has a mediocre defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense) but the Packers are very good offensively now that they’ve discovered running back Ryan Grant. Grant became the featured back in week 8 and turned an ineffective rushing attack into one of the league’s best, gaining 956 yards at a very impressive 5.1 ypr. Veteran quarterback Brett Favre had one of his best years ever and averaged 7.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) from week 3 on, which is when big play receiver Greg Jennings joined the lineup (he missed the first two games of the season). The Packers’ offense rates at 1.3 yppl better than average with their current lineup and they’ll dominate a mediocre Seattle defense.

Having a week off to get healthy, regenerate, and prepare is a huge advantage this time of year and home teams with a bye have won exactly 50% of the time by 10 points or more since 1980. The home field advantage in this round of playoffs is 5 ½ points and the oddsmakers have pretty much figured that out too, which is why you might think that the lines on this week’s games look higher than you’d expect. In this case the line is not high enough, as my math model favors Green Bay by 11 ½ points. In addition to the line value the Packers apply to a 35-6-1 ATS subset of a 68-26-2 ATS playoff situation. I’ll take Green Bay in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less, for 4-Stars at -7 or less, and for 2-Stars at -10 ½ or -11 points.

NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) 33 Jacksonville 17

A lot of pundits give Jacksonville a good shot at an upset in this game, but the Jaguars aren’t good enough defensively to hang with the Patriots. Jacksonville is equipped offensively to have decent success in this game, but I just don’t see them stopping New England’s offense.

Jacksonville should be able to run the ball with success, as the Jaguars averaged 4.8 ypr while the Patriots have allowed 4.4 ypr this season, and efficient quarterback David Garrard (6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) should have decent success throwing against a Patriots’ pass defense that is 0.7 yppp better than average. Garrard also doesn’t make many mistakes, throwing just 5 interceptions all season (although he was picked twice last week in Pittsburgh), so Jacksonville does have an advantage over New England’s defense.

The Jaguars, however, aren’t good enough defensively to stop the Patriots. The Jags are only 0.1 ypr better than average defending the run (4.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.1 ypr against an average team – not including their week 17 game against Houston when they rested some starters) and they are just 0.4 yppp better than average against the pass (since pass rushing DE Paul Spicer joined the starting unit permanently in week 6). Tom Brady had the best season of any quarterback in history and he averaged 7.8 yppp this season (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) while throwing just 8 interceptions against 50 touchdown passes. Teams that gave the Patriots problems were teams that could generate a pass rush without blitzing too much and only Spicer is a good pass rusher among the defensive linemen (8.5 sacks). If the Jaguars choose to blitz to get pressure on Brady they take a risk that they’ll get burned, as Brady is quick to respond to blitzes and usually finds the open receiver quickly. The Patriots probably won’t get to their 37 points per game average, but they should get pretty close to that.

My math model only favors New England by 9 points in this game, but the Patriots have consistently out-played the math projections this season and have a scoring margin that is 6 points more than their stats would predict. Jacksonville out-played their stats by 1 point this season, so adding 5 points to the math model projection of a 9 point margin would give you New England by 14 points, which is about what the pointspread is. This game is very tough to call, but giving Bill Belichick and this staff an extra week to prepare will make the Patriots even tougher to compete with and Tom Brady is 38-16-3 ATS in his career at home when not favored by 20 points or more, including 5-0 ATS this season and 4-1-1 ATS in the playoffs). I’ll lean slightly with New England and I have no opinion on the total.

Larry Ness

20*: Green Bay

My 20* play is on the GB Packers at 4:30 ET. I used Seattle as my 20* Wild Card GOY against Washington LW and now will come right back AGAINST them here! The Seahawks had the perfect setup LW. The 'Skins were playing their fifth straight "win or you're done game" and it was their THIRD road game in four weeks. Washington QB Todd Collins hadn't started a game in 10 years prior to leading Washington to four straight wins to end the regular season, RB Portis had been mediocre all season and the team's top-three receivers had just three 100-yard games between them. The 'Skins were coming off a short week and Seattle was at home, where it owned a 42-14 home record, the NFL's second-best mark since '01. Seattle totally DOMINATED the first three quarters but led just 13-0. Mid-way through the 4th, Seattle was down 14-13 and was lucky NOT to be down 21-13 (or at least, 17-13). Seattle did come back to win 35-14 but C'MON! Hasselbeck, who had a career year, was just mediocre with one TDP and two INTs (QB rating of 68.4 compared to 91.4 in the regular season!). RB Alexander is just a shell of what he once was (averaged 44.8 YPG rushing his last five games and had 46 yards on 15 carries vs Wash!) while backup Morris (4-for-17 yards) didn't look any better. Here, Seattle travels to Green Bay and let's note the Seahawks are 1-6 SU all-time on the playoff road. Also, consider this. The franchise has had just TWO winning regular seasons on the road in their 32-year history! The team was just 3-5 SU and ATS on the road TY, including a 2-0 SU and ATS mark against NFC West lightweights, SF and StL (1-5 SU and ATS in the rest of its road games). In fact, Seattle went 4-0 SU and ATS vs SF and StL this year (outscoring them 104-28), making them just 6-6 SU (5-7 ATS) against the rest of the league (barely outscoring the rest of its opponents 289-263), while beating just ONE playoff team (TB in Week 1) during the regular season. Now to the Packers. Favre was coming off two down years, with a 20-29 ratio in '05 and a career-low 56.0 percent completion rate in '06 (18-18 ratio). However, he stopped FORCING things this year and completed a career-high 66.5 percent plus had his third-best yardage total (4,155) and QB rating (95.7) of his career as well. Ryan Grant took over at RB in the team's seventh game, after Green Bay averaged an NFL-low 65.7 YPG rushing (3.3) through six games. Grant averaged 92.9 YPG (5.1 per) in the season's final 10 games, leading a rushing attack which improved to 120.3 YPG (4.5) in that stretch. Favre had four receivers catch 47 balls or more, with Driver nabbing 82 and Jennings averaging 17.4 YPC with 12 TDs. One DE is Kampman (12 sacks) and the team rotated ******* on running downs and KGB (9 1/2 sacks) on passing downs at the other side. The LBs are very underrated plus Harris and Woodson rank with the best CB duos in the NFL! The Pack went a league-best 12-3-1 ATS this year, including 6-1-1 at home. In its last four home games it allowed 9.3 PPG, winning by an average of 25.0 PPG! This has been a magical year for Favre and while he's NEVER won in Dallas (likely venue next if the Pack win here!), I expect a superb performance from him in this game. Last week the Seahawks had all the advantages and almostt let a "sure win" the game slip away. That happens to mediocre teams. This time around, it's Seattle, a historically TERRIBLE road team, which will be playing its FIFTH road game in eigth weeks, going up against a team which has defied everyone for OVER a year, by going 17-3 SU and 16-3-1 over its last 20 games! Favre's 'ride' won't end here, vs this quality of opponent! Division Round GOY 20* GB Packers.

Sportsinsights

Green Bay -7

Sharpmoves

GB-Sea over

Sharp Betting

Seattle

Jacksonville

Spylock

Green Bay

AAA

Seattle +7.5

IRON HORSE

10* NFC PLAYOFF GAME OF YEAR G.Bay

VEGAS SPORTS PICS

Seattle Seahawks + 9 over (at) Green Bay Packers

Green Bay (13-3) vs. Seattle (11-6) is 7-2 ATS last nine games and 4-1 ATS last five January games. Teams have split last two meetings, Seattle winning at home 34-24 last season, Green Bay winning at home 23-17 in OT in the playoffs the previous season.

New England Patriots - 13 over Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville (12-5) QB Garrard in last week's win at Pittsburgh completed 9 of 22 passes for 140 yds with two picks while RB Taylor was held to 48 yds on 16 carries. New England (16-0) set NFL records this season with 589 points and 79 TDs. Pats went 6-0 vs. playoff teams this season averaging 39.2 ppg.

Stevie Y

Seattle

Play the seahawks + the 7.5 saturday early Were taking a hard look @ the Green Bay Packers/Seahawks battle as the home crew is listed as 7?-point favorites versus the Seahawks, while the game's total is sitting at 43. Last week Seattle scored 22 fourth-quarter points in their 35-14 wild-card win over Washington, covering the 3-point home spread. 49 points scored were OVER the posted total of 38.5. Matt Hasselbeck was 20-for-32 for 229 yards, one touchdown and two picks, while D.J. Hackett caught six passes for 101 yards and a score for the Seahawks. We feel the Seahawks will shut down Packers Rb Grant, & we feel they can win this game. The team came within a few bad plays of winning its last two playoff battles on the road &, Seattle is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games Seattle is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games & Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay

Gator's NFL "Tech" Report

NFL (Saturday): Jacksonville vs. New England

Play Under NFL home teams against the total with a team averaging >=7.3 PYA against a defense allowing 5.9-6.7 PYA after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards per attempt in their last game, 36-10 Under the last ten seasons (78.3%)

Selection: Jacksonville / New England UNDER 48

Burns

Div. Rd TOY ------Under Pack/Seahawks

Annihilator --------Under Pats/Jags

The Sports MEMO

Seattle at Green Bay -8 O/U 40
Recommendation: Green Bay

Jacksonville at New England -13 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Over

Sports Marketwatch
Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers

The NFL playoffs create a lot of betting interest – and the public is solidly on the Seattle Seahawks. Almost two out every three bets is coming in on a Seattle team that trounced Washington and ended the season strongly. On the other hand, Green Bay has been “flying under the radar” for much of the season. The public doesn’t seem to respect the Packers and this gives us value.

The line opened at Green Bay -8 (-9 at + vig at Pinnacle) but has already reached Green Bay -7 at some sportsbooks. That is a huge 1 to 2 point value near the “key number” of 7.

Green Bay has not yet earned the public’s respect, but they have beaten many quality opponents this season and look like a solid value. Take Green Bay and be on the side of the long-term winners: the sports books.

Green Bay Packers -7

Carlo Campanella

10* NFC PLAYOFF GAME OF YEAR

Green Bay

Carlo Campanella comp

Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots Jan 12 2008 8:00PM

Prediction: under

7* Play On UNDER

Point Train

10-UNIT NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR

Seattle Seahawks (+9) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

Rating: 10 units

Seattle (+) over GREEN BAY at 4:30 pm EST The Packers went 13-3 during the regular season to claim the NFC’s second-best record. The Seahawks went 10-6 to win the NFC West, arguably the NFL’s worst division. Regular-season records go out the window once the playoffs arrive, though, with experience taking over. Green Bay is one of the NFL’s youngest teams and, outside of Brett Favre, has very little postseason experience. Seattle, conversely, is one of the more playoff-tested teams remaining with a majority of its 2005 Super Bowl team intact. Aside from an uncharacteristically bad showing at Carolina and a backup-filled loss to Atlanta, Seattle played extremely well down the stretch. The Seahawks went 6-2 (6-2 ATS) in the second half of the season, winning by 13.7 ppg. A big part of the success has been a jolt from Matt Hasselbeck and the passing game, which is 8th in the NFL. Hasselbeck has completed 63.7% of his passes for 253.1 ypg with 16 touchdowns over his last eight complete games. Also, he’ll have motivation to have a great game as needs to redeem himself following his, “We want the ball and we’re going to score,” snafu in the 2004 playoffs. Green Bay has gone an impressive 7-1 at home this year but it hasn’t looked all that great against better competition. The Packers played only three teams with .500 or better records at home this year and none of those wins came by more than a touchdown. Also, they lost at home by a touchdown over a bad Chicago team. In the end, this game will come down to playoff experience and Seattle wins that debate hands down. The Seahawks were given little chance to win in Chicago last year in the second round but they took the game to overtime before losing. Two years before that they were playing in the Super Bowl. This team has more postseason experience, whether it’s the players of the coaches. That experience will make all the difference. Ride with the Seahawks.

CTO

MARQUETTE over Notre Dame (Day game)...Since home-lovin' ND (29 straight wins at Joyce Center!) playing on an opponents' home court for 1st time this season, doubt Irish have any better luck now than they had in the same scheduling setup year ago, when they were whipped by 18 at Georgetown. ND thrives at 3-point line (41% on 21 attempts pg), but Irish find no groove vs. tight-covering Marquette (permitting just 30% beyond arc), fired-up after allowing a reg.-season high in 85-72 series setback LY. Meanwhile, super-deep, uptempo Warriors (80 ppg) able to unleash devastating transition game vs. bigger but slower visitor.

*MARQUETTE 84 - Notre Dame 67 RATING - 11

WASHINGTON STATE over *Ucla (Day Game)...Can't knock Ben Howland's no-nonsense UCLA outfit that will welcome chance to engage WSU in Cougs' patient, bump-and-grind style. At the same time, it's hard not to get interested in well-schooled, unbeaten Wazzu bunch that's at all-time best No. 4 in rankings, allowing nation's-low 49.7 ppg, and now forcing foes to pay attention on blocks to rugged 6-10 jr. Baynes (64% from floor) as well as versatile perimeter weapons Low, Weaver, & Rochestie. With possessions limited, as usual, in a Tony Bennett-coached game, this is a big pointspread hurdle for Bruins to overcome.

WASHINGTON STATE 53 - *Ucla 54 RATING - 10

*DRAKE over Missouri State...Drake's ascension to its best-in-school history 12-1 start is reminiscent in many ways of the rise of Washington State in the Pac-10. After father Dick Bennett revived the Cougar program, he retired and left the team in the hands of son Tony, who has lifted Wazzu to even greater heights. This season in Des Moines, son Keno Davis has taken over for father Dr. Tom, and the Bulldogs have taken off. It's been a plus that Keno's inherited a veteran core. Thanks to three DD scorers (soph G Josh Young, sr. G Leonard Houston, 6-8 jr. Jonathan Cox), 6-1 sr. playmaker Adam Emmenecker, and a deep bench (21 points in recent road win at Evansville), Drake leads the league in steals, TO margin, triples per game, and scoring differential.

*DRAKE 80 - Missouri State 59 RATING - 11

WINING POINTS

*Green Bay over Seattle by 14

Matt Hasselbeck won’t be making any brass scoring predictions because this playoff game isn’t going into overtime.The Packers beat the Seahawks in overtime at home four seasons ago to win a wildcard playoff game when Al Harris returned a Hasselbeck pass for a touchdown after Hasselbeck said,“We want the ball and we’re going to score,” during the overtime coin flip.The Packers are home, rested, healthy, have a solid defense, a balanced bigplay offense, underrated special teams and solid coaching. The Seahawks can match the Packers in coaching and have playmakers on defense. But Hasselbeck isn’t Brett Favre.Shaun Alexander isn’t the runner he was before guard Steve Hutchinson left for free agency and fullback Mack Strong retired. The Seahawks are 8-1 at home this season. They dominated four games against San Francisco and St. Louis, whose combined record was 8-24. But away from Qwest Field, Seattle was 3-5. Seattle coach Mike Holmgren is 1-3 at Lambeau Field against his former team.The Seahawks are 0-2 in road playoff games under Holmgren.Their road to the playoffs was a marshmallow roast.The Seahawks met only two teams that won double-digits games, losing 21-0 to Pittsburgh and 33-30 to Cleveland in overtime. If you discount their wins against the Rams and 49ers, the Seahawks would rank second-to-last in the NFC in defense and third-worst defensively in the entire NFL. Their defense, without their loud stadium crowd, is far less intimidating on the road. All Green Bay has done this season is win and cover games,going 12-3-1 ATS.The Seahawks can’t run any more.Their passing attack isn’t strong enough to overcome the cold-weather elements at Lambeau and star cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Harris.The Packers,on the other hand, have become a balanced machine thanks to the emergence of Ryan Grant. Favre’s play-action fakes now mean something.The Packers have the deepest set of wideouts in the NFC with Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones and Koren Robinson.The Seahawks’ best hope is in getting turnovers Seattle was an impressive plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways.However, Favre has done a much better job this season of limiting his turnovers. He completed a career-best 66.5 percent of his passes, while throwing for 28 TDs.The Seahawks breezed because they were in a weak division.They don’t have the goods to step up here. GREEN BAY 28-14.

*New England over Jacksonville by 7

Are the Jaguars the most dangerous type of playoff foe, or the same inconsistentteam that can’t win in the postseason and nearly lost to the Steelers last week after leading 28-10? The Jaguars like to believe they have become relevant again among the hierarchy, even though last Saturday’s playoff victory was their first since 1999. We’re buying into that somewhat.Unfortunately for the Jaguars, they draw New England.This isn’t to say the Jaguars can’t cover – they certainly can – but winning could prove difficult.The Patriots are on a march to prove they are the greatest team of all-time.So far the qualifications are there: unbeaten season, 19 straight victories, Tom Brady an MVP season capped by an all-time high 50 touchdown passes and Randy Moss setting a single-season touchdown record for receivers.This is the challenge facing the Jaguars.They have two key things going – they can run and stop the run.The Jaguars led the AFC in rushing, finishing No. 2 overall in the NFL averaging just under 150 yards per game on the ground. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 1,970 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.David Garrard was surprisingly steady and also is effective running when flushed out of the pocket.The Patriots are solid on defense and extremely well-coached.Their offense scored a league-record 589 points, an average of 36.8 points per game. New England can’t score, though, if it doesn’t have the ball. Jacksonville has the ingredients to effectively play ball-control. Having an extra week of rest definitely should help New England. However, the Patriots haven’t been real sharp. Perhaps they continue flat. New England has covered only one of its past six games,while looking vulnerable in narrow victories against the Eagles and Ravens.They beat four of their last six foes – Eagles, Ravens, Jets and Giants – by a combined 19 points. That’s an average victory margin of 4.7 points. Only the Giants of those teams qualified for the postseason. Jacksonville’s defense ranked a respectable 10th in scoring, yielding 19 points per contest,while placing 12th overall giving up 313.8 yards per game.The Jaguars have a ball-hawking secondary coming up with 20 interceptions, tied for fourth-highest in the NFL.Weather could factor in this matchup. Despite being from Florida, though, the Jaguars are built for bad conditions as they proved twice in inclement weather at Pittsburgh during the last four weeks. It’s the Patriots, with their precision passing attack, that could be hurt more by wet, snowy and windy weather. NEW ENGLAND 27-20.

WINING POINTS

***BEST BET
Detroit over *Charlotte by 15
Not only do the Pistons have the best pointspread mark through 32 games at 22-9-1
ATS, but were winning decisively capturing 19 of their first 25 victories by doubledigits.We like that in a strong favorite. We also like the Pistons being 11-5-1 ATS through their first 17 away contests. Detroit’s bench is much stronger this season,Richard Hamilton has been on fire and its defense ranked No. 2 holding foes to less than 90 points per contest. DETROIT 102-87.

***BEST BET
George Mason* over Northeastern by 25
Matt Janning, we know who you are now. A year ago, Northeastern’s slender 6-4 guard was wandering alone on the perimeter and knockin’ em down vs. CAA foes. This season, his first two CAA outings resulted in 6- and 12-point personal production and 0-2 ATS against opponents who are not (purportedly) the conference’s best. After already having played 10 road games this season, the CAA’s northernmost output (Boston) gets to start making longer trips into the Virginias and Carolinas for conference season.Oh, joy. Northeastern coach Coen wants to play games in the 60s and if you add the scores and divide by two, that’s what he’ll get. GEORGE MASON, 73-48.

***BEST BET
St.Mary’s* over Santa Clara by 24
Who lost twice to Santa Clara last season, including a meek 63-47 bow-out from the
WCC Tournament? That would be St. Mary’s, infused for 2007-08 with more dynamic
point guard play and more experienced forwards. Santa Clara’s penetrate-and-kick
game isn’t much, especially compared to what St. Mary’s is. At some point, funneling
too much of the offense through the leaden form of 300-pounder John Bryant will
deaden Santa Clara’s punch and this is a good spot for it to go limp while St. Mary’s
runs happily up and down the floor. ST. MARY’S, 84-60.

THE SPORTS MEMO

Seattle at Green Bay -8 O/U 40
Recommendation: Green Bay

The Packers have been prepping, resting and scheming the last two weeks while the Seahawks fought through a tough battle with Washington for the right to travel to Lambeau. Some would argue momentum from a first round win as a plus for the underdog Seahawks, and it may very well be, but we saw a sloppy performance that nearly turned disastrous after a five minute span of giving up one TD that cut the lead in half, a turnover and subsequent score that relinquished the lead and a mental error on a kickoff that resulted in yet another turnover which nearly buried them. Matt Hasselbeck was not sharp,the receiving corps which was rumored to be healthy looked shaky and dropped passes and the absence of a rushing attack (which gained only 77 yards on 21 carries last week) will eventually do them in this week. The Packers have been very strong at home both SU and ATS traditionally and this season was no different as they pushed their way to a 6-1-1 record against the number in front of the “cheese-heads”. Green Bay has become a complete team after relying almost exclusively on the pass early on this season thanks to Ryan Grant and a developing offensive line that has taken a real liking to the zone blocking scheme they employ. Grant has emerged from the stable with five 100 yard rushing efforts and at least one TD in each game since week 12. It brings balance and legitimacy to an offense that ranks second overall in total yardage and fourth in points scored while being led by a true MVP candidate in Brett Favre. While Seattle’s pressure caused Todd Collins a lot of misery we saw that the short to intermediate passing game can neutralize some of that pressure and that is exactly the type of offense Green Bay runs. The Pack has covered in 13 of their last 17 games overall, including four straight as a favorite in this price range. They improve that number to five straight this weekend and send former coach Mike Holmgren home.

Jacksonville at New England -13 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Over

The Pats accomplished the impossible by going 16-0 SU through the regular season. The team, however, was either disinterested or perhaps just overvalued as the season wound down, because despite finishing with the league’s top rated offense in yardage, passing yardage and points per game scored they covered just once in their final six games. The Jags were money in the bank this season with an 11-5 record against the number during the regular season (bettered only by the Browns in the AFC) including a rock solid 6-3 ATS mark away from home. While Tom Brady and Randy Moss have set all kinds of records (Brady’s 50 TD to eight INT ratio, Moss’ 23 TD catches) David Garrard, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew have quietly established a strong offensive core. The Jags have scored no fewer than 24 points since a Monday Night Football affair against Indy in mid October, a stretch of games that included road outings against Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Indy, Pittsburgh as well as strong showings at home against Buffalo and San Diego. We know the Pats can score, just look at their 37 ppg average. Match that up against a Jacksonville defense that is decidedly down this season from recent editions and whose secondary looked extremely susceptible (even with Rashean Mathis picking off passes) and this total looks cheap. Weather may be cold but the wind is supposed to be a non-factor according to preliminary reports which shouldn’t hinder either attack. Play this one over.