King Creole
Double-Dime Bet
Wyoming -12.5 vs Ohio
These teams played last year in Athens, Ohio... and the Cowboys came away with a squeaker win by a score of 34-33. So the Bobcats come into game one with a little REVENGE on their minds. In the high altitude of Laramie, they WON'T get it... particularly if the main ATS System holds true to form.
In the last 2 years, SEPTEMBER non-conference home favorites of 2 > points (WYOMING) are 13-0 SU... and 11-1-1 ATS when they are playing 'INTO' this early season Revenge. This System tells us that the Revenger (in this case, Ohio U) can't handle the foreign turf of a non-conference opponent. With an average LINE DIFFERENTIAL of -8.9 PPG (they fail to cover by more than a TD).... many of these road teams NEVER even show up!
The big-time advantage that MOUNTAIN WEST teams have when hosting non-conference opposition is extremely strong. Since the 2001 season. mid-range MOUNTAIN WEST home favs of -7 to -21 points are 16-4 ATS in ALL games... and 9-1 ATS in Games 1 thru 3 of the season.
Since we're zeroing in on the MWC Conference, a quick query of how WYOMING has done as a host is justified.
In the last TEN years, WYOMING is a very solid 12-4 ATS at home against non-conference foes (and 6-1 ATS in the last 4 years). Also a PERFECT 7-0 ATS as favorites of -15 to -15 points. The Cowboys are a team that loves coming out FIRED UP in their home opener, going 7-1 ATS in the last 8 years.
On the flip side, you have a conference that struggles greatly when taking to the non-conference road... EXCEPT when they take on a Big 10 opponent (more on that in future weeks!). In the last 3 years, MID AMERICAN CONFERENCE mid-range road dogs of +7 to +21 points (like OHIO) are 1-14 ATS against ANY Conference except the Big 10. This System applies only in the first month of the season.
Figure the high altitude to finally 'get' to the Bobcats by the third quarter. If you have halftime-wagering ability, you might want to think of playing a little SECOND HALF action on the Cowboys, as well
Cincinnati Kid
Double-Dime Bet
Oregon -14.0 vs Washington
Ducks and Huskies battle in the opening week of the 2008 season - a conference tilt on tap - inside the series Oregon has cashed all 4 contests when installed as DD favs vs. Washington - also noting Game 1 DD favs playing into revenge who won 9 or more games the previous season stand 24-6 ATS - in conference play these teams are a perfect 5-0 ATS since the 2000 season...
Doc's Baseball
6 Unit Play. #966 Take Arizona -140 over Los Angeles
The Dodgers are done! Despite having a major edge in pitching last night, they got blown out by Arizona, a team they could never pass in the standing. They now have lost eight start games and will have to face the heart of the Snakes pitching staff with Dan Haren going on Saturday. He will be looking for his third straight decision and is 14-6 with a 3.10 E.R.A. on the season. He has even better numbers against the Dodgers in 2008 with a 3.06 E.R.A. His opponent is Chad Billingsley and he has similar number to Haren but has had no success against Arizona in 2008 going 0-3 with a 7.71 E.R.A. The Manny factor has worn off and the Dodgers will play themselves out of the race with another defeat on Saturday giving us a big pick winner.
3 Unit Play. #968 Take Cleveland (-1 ½ RL) +110 over Seattle
The Tribe lost for the first time in 11 chances on Friday but we expect them to bounce back in a big way on Saturday afternoon with game two of this three game series takes place at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. They will send Tony Reyes to the mound looking to follow-up on a solid outing in Texas in which he went seven innings and allowed just one run. Seattle will counter with Jarrod Washburn, a player hoping to avoid his sixth straight loss. That will not happen as this one will get ugly early and often.
3 Unit Play. #970 Take Under 10 in Toronto @ New York
The Yankees got another solid performance last night from Carl Pavano and we expect another pitching dual on Saturday with Parrish and Rasner toeing the rubber. Four of the last five meetings have gone under and this will make it six of seven.
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Utah +3
Wisconsin -26.5
Southern Mississippi -11
Florida -35
Northwestern -11
Nebraska -14.5
Pittsburgh -13.5
Clemson -5
Kent State +10
Arkansas State +19
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San Francisco Giants +125
St Louis Cardinals -140
Cleveland Indians -165
LA Dodgers -128
Houston Astros vs St Louis Cardinals Over 9
Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Over 10.5
C Jordan
1000 Wyoming
100 Marlins
100 UNLV Under
100 Clemson
100 Tigers Run Line
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Utah +3 over MICHIGAN
The Wolverines had a nice season last year, going 9-4, but they only return 10 starters this year and they have a new HC as well. Rich Rodriguez will have his hands full, especially with an offense that returns just 10 starters, including only one on the offensive line. In all they lost 4 NFL draftees on offense and will be hard pressed to come close to last years 27 ppg they up. The Utah offense put up a solid 26 ppg last year and with 8 starters back, on that side of the ball, including 5th yr SR QB Brian Johnson and 4 on the OL, I see them topping 30 ppg this year. The defense was very good last year, allowing just 329 ypg and 17 ppg and with 6 starters back they should be even stronger this year. The Utes are deeper and more experienced and they should be able to walk into the Big House and come away with a solid opening week win.
UL Lafayette +10.5 over SOUTHERN MISS
UL Lafayette brings back 14 starters from last years unit that went just 3-9 and I believe they are much stronger on both sides of the ball. Tonight they take on a S. Miss team that brings back just 10 starters, including only 4 on the defensive side. Defense has always been a staple of this team, but I feel they will struggle in the early going. The offense put up 28 ppg last year, but they are learning new schemes and must replace QB Jeremy Young, so it should not be as productive as last year, especially in the early going. ULL ranked 7th in the nation in rushing last year and they could find some good running lanes vs a Southern Miss defense that returns just 1 starter to the DL. Southern Miss has won the last 5 in this series by an average of 39 ppg, but with all the losses and the new coaching staff, there are just too many questions on this team right now. Perfect spot for ULL to steeal one, or at least keep it close.
2 UNIT PLAY
NORTHWESTERN -11 over Syracuse
The Orange return 13 starters from a team that went just 2-10 last year and the outlook isn't that bright for this team to eclipse last years 2 win total. The Orange offense was just pathetic last year as they put up just 16 ppg and even though they will be taking on a defense that allowed 31 ppg last year, I just don't see them getting much more than last years average. The Wildcat offense put 26 ppg on the board last year and with 8 starters back on that side of the ball I see them putting over 30 ppg on the board this year. The Orange has been outscored by 30 ppg in their last 4 lid-lifters and I just don't see them scoring enough points in this one to keep it from being a blowout is well. The Cats should be headed to a decent bowl this year, while the Orange will reside in the Big east basement all year. This one is easy.
USC -19 over VIRGINIA
The Cavs had a nice year last year with a 9-4 overall mark, but they also got a lot of breaks as they won an NCAA record 5 games by 2 points of less. Usually when that happens the same breaks don't go a teams way for a second year in a row. The Cavs lost a lot from last years squad, including starting QB Jameel Sewell, 3 OL and the entire DL. The Trenches are an important part of a team and you don't want an entirley new defesive front when playing the Trojans, especially in the first game of the year. The Tojans return just 11 starters from their 11-2 squad of last year, but this team just simply reload and will be ready to play. Back in '06 the Trojans returned just 10 starters, yet still blew out a strong Arkansas team 50-14. Last year the trojans were hurt in the polls due to lack of blowout wins and they won't let that happen this year, plus they always start off a season strong, going 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) in their last 5 openers, while outscoring their opponents by 28.8 ppg. This will be over early.
I ALSO LIKE
WYOMING -12 over Ohio
1 UNIT PLAYS
KANSAS -36 over Florida International
Last years Kansas squad had an impressive 12-1 record, while outscoring teams by an impressive 27 ppg. They faced 4 non-conf cupcakes to start the season last year and won those 4 games by an average 47.8 ppg. Included in the 4 games is a game vs these same FIU Panthers and they beat them by 52 points as a 33 point fav. The Jayhawks offense mght not be as strong as last years squad that put up 43 ppg, but with 6 starters back, including super QB Todd Reesing (36 TD's and ononly 7 Int's last year), they should have no problems coming close to last years numbers. The Defense could be stronger thatn last years edition that allowed just 16 ppg, as they return 9 starter, including 3 accross the front. FIU was 1-11 last year and scored just 15 ppg, while allowing 39 ppg. The offense should be better with 9 returning starters, but I don't see them getting too many in this one vs this tough defense. The Jayhawk offense could put up 50 on this team again as the FIU panther defense ruturns just 5 starters from last years pathetic group. This is another game that will be over early.
I ALSO LIKE
Western Michigan +14 over NEBRASKA
Big Al
Vegas Crusher
Michigan
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
3* Oklahoma State at Washington State
There is nothing but problems on a bad, rebuilding Washington State program. Chronic shoulder pain has ended the football career of Washington State offensive lineman Dan Rowlands this week. Rowlands, a fifth-year senior, started 21 games in his career, including all 12 last season at right guard. He was expected to start at right tackle this season The Cougars were already without reserve defensive tackle Andy Roof (expulsion) and starting receiver Jeshua Anderson (hernia surgery). Starting left tackle Vaughn Lesuma (back) and receiver Daniel Blackledge (hamstring) are both questionable for Saturday's game. The Cougars were already in poor position to handle such personnel depletions. They were stripped of six football scholarships over the summer because of their inability to meet NCAA Academic Progress Rate standards in recent years. The Cougars have a new head coach in Paul Wulff and a new QB in senior Gary Rogers. Oklahoma State comes to town, with Mike Gundy's offense that averaged 34.6 points, 243 yards rushing and passing. 17 starters are back, led by senior QB Zac Robinson (23 TDs and 9 picks), who also ran for 847 yards, 6.1 yards per carry! The Cowboys have a lot to prove, after having a powerhouse team that folded up at times late against good teams. Well, they catch a break as Washington State is a bad team. Play Oklahoma State.
5* Western Michigan at Nebraska
Home teams with new coaches can offer huge incentive and motivation in openers like this. In this game, Nebraska introduces hard-nosed Bo Pelini as the new coach. The Huskers are on a mission this season after last year's embarrassing team gave up under Bill Calahan. They actually have a ton of talent and experience, especially on offense, led by mobile senior QB Joe Ganz (16 TDs, 7 picks). This is a long road trip and a tough spot for the visitors from the MAC. I like Western Michigan coach Bill Cubit, but he runs into a hornet's nest here. And this program doesn't do well when stepping up in competition, getting smoked in the opener a year ago, 62-24, by West Virginia, failing to cover. They also lost 39-20 at Indiana two years ago and 37-27 last season at home to the Big 10 Hoosiers. Nebraska is 9-0 SU, 5-2 ATS its last 9 openers. Play Nebraska!
JEFFERSONSPORTS
FINAL CARD
FLORIDA-34.5
USC-20
MEMPHIS+8
UNLV-12.5
Tom Freese
10* CFB "NO BRAINER"
Michigan State
Mike Rose
2* Seattle Mariners +160
3* New York Mets -110
2* Western Michigan +14.5
3* Northern Illinois vs Minnesota OVER 58.5
3* Boston College vs Kent UNDER 48.5
5* Michigan State +5.0
LT Profits
2* Pittsburgh Pirates +110
2* Houston Astros +110
2* Florida Marlins -115
Ken Jenkinsssss
3* Michigan -3.5
3* Nebraska -14.5
FairWay Jay
3* Philadelphia Phillies +140
3* Action Seattle Mariners +170
3* Florida Atlantic +24
3* Missouri -9
Bob Akmens
4* Washington Mystics vs Minnesota Lynx OVER 151.0
4* Houston Comets vs Sacramento Monarchs UNDER 146.0
4* Chicago Cubs -154
4* Kansas State -26.0
7* Missouri -8.5