AJ Apollo
3* Western Michigan +14.5
3* Illinois +9.0
ALEX SMART
2* St. Louis Cardinals -125
Ben Burns
4* Washington vs Oregon UNDER 62.5
TEDDY COVERS
3* Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres UNDER 8.0
INDIAN COWBOY
Florida -34.5 (POD) (5*)
Florida might just kill this team, and I mean just kill them. Remember, Hawaii has a new coach, their starting quarterback is not playing as he is with injury back in Hawaii, Hawaii returns just 11 players back which has 5 on offense and 5 on already a questionable defense and 1 in special teams. Florida underperformed miserably last year compared to their standards including losing their bowl game which they will be furious to offset, it is the first game of the season and Florida will look to score plenty and often and they have some bad blood with some trash talking with this Hawaii team from last year - granted that was when June Jones was there - still it doesn't leave them. The Gators are returning a total of 16 players out of 22 players which itself tells you a lot about their potential, Florida should do very well today.
Utah +3 (Comp) (3*)
Gallsy, I know. But, I believe in my research and it says that Utah will win this game Outright. Note, I called Chicago Outright yesterday on the road at Washington and nothing is different here. I believe in teams that win outright and taking the points with teams that can win outright and given the research, the massive amount of starters returning, the most from the Mountain West and how young this Michigan team is, Rich Rodriguez's first game or not, it is not a good situation for these baby Wolverines imo. Utah for the Outright win.
Research that went with this play:
All I'm saying is watch out, this is a game that Utah could very well win outright similar to the Chicago Sky yesterday. Remember, this Utah team is returning the most amount of players from the Mountain West and should compete for the Mountain West title. This team returns 17 players, 8 on offense, 7 on defense and 2 on special teams. The spread in this ballgame opened up at 7 and has been brought down steadily down to -3. I know it is Rich Rodriguez's first game and all but I still believe Utah with as many seniors as they bring down for this game and with the experience they have, could very well win this game outright. Michigan is very, very young. This is a game that is likely to go Utah and the Over.
Tulsa/UAB Over 67 (3*)
Normally, I don't cover Conference USA, but this is an exception as I know UAB via knowing Alabama football well, know that this team returns the most number of players back in Conference USA Football as last year Neil Callaway and his staff that rolled in were in their first year. This team went 2-10 and now has 20 players, 8 on offense and 10 on defense returning. They should be considerably better this year. However, Tulsa returns 16 starters and this team went a stellar 10-4 last year and winning in the GMAC Bowl by blowing out Bowling Green by more than 50 points. I know 66 points here seems like a high total, but heck, one of these teams alone could very well accomplish it. Tulsa beat this team 38-30 last year and remember, that was given the fact that this UAB team was improving and Tulsa returns all of its fire power on offense essentially, should make for some fireworks on both sides of the ball today.
VEGAS RUNNER
3* BEST BET of the DAY
Washington St. +8.0 vs Oklahoma St.
I went ahead and posted this Bet at +8 (-120) because Bodog and a couple of others are using 7.5 and I am quite sure that with all the money that is expected by the books to come in on the other side...the rest should follow and also move the line up...If you are unable to get this number, it is still a Play even at +7...but we always make it a habit to get the best number possible and when we are backing the home-dog which we except to give us 60min of effort...when the opportunity is there to buy the hook and get it to a whole number, especially a number like 8...then it should almost be automatic...VR
Minnesota / N. Illinois Over 58.0 2* NCAAFB TOTAL PLAY of the DAY
As I stated in the Podcast, the money coming in from the bettors will continue to be on the UNDER and because of that, we are now able to get an even better number than earlier in the week...and I hope that trend continues and we are offered a lower number than posted...VR
Memphis 8.0 vs Mississippi 2* WAGER
I went ahead and Posted this at 8 (-120) because even though I see some 8's out there at some of the shops and with locals...the consensus seems to have moved this to 7.5, and in that case I recommend buying the hook for 10cents...VR
3* NCAAFB TEASER PLAY of the DAY
UTAH +10.5 & MISSOURI -2
2* PRIME-TIME TEASER PLAY
CLEMSON +3 & CALIFORNIA +1
Charlies Sports
Va Tech / East Carolina Over 45 (500*)
Akron +27 (30*)
Northwestern -11½ (20*)
Florida -34½ (20*)
Ohio +13 (10*)
Bowling Green +14 (10*) free play
His 500* plays have been unreal lately 😉
PRO INFO SPORTS
New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins
Prediction: Florida Marlins -113
Grade: ONE-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)
The Marlins play host to the New York Mets on Saturday night and are in desperate need of some wins. The Marlins fell further off the pace, trailing the Phillies by five games and the Mets by seven. They were only 1 1/2 games out of first on Aug. 13, but are 5-9 since.
The Marlins like their chances today as the face the Mets Pelfrey who has been horrible against them, going 0-3 with a 10.66 ERA in three starts versus Florida in 2008, failing to reach the fifth inning in each outing. He lasted just 4 2-3 frames against the Marlins on Aug. 10, getting reached for six runs and seven hits in an 8-2 loss.
Florida will hang their hopes on Ricky Nolasco (13-7, 3.62), the club's leader in wins, who looks to earn a third consecutive victory on Saturday evening. During his last two starts he has 21 Ks and just 2 walks and the Marlins are 17-9 in his 26 starts this year, making him MLB's fourth-biggest "money-maker" this season.
He was impressive Sunday, yielding two runs and three hits while fanning 10 batters in 7 1/3 innings of a 5-2 win at Arizona .
Data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to Play Against MLB road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts against opponent starting a pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest, 105-44 SU last five years.
We will back the host here as the Marlins and Nolasco get a much needed win on Saturday night.
GRADED PREDICTION: 1* Florida Marlins -113
Teddy June
20 Utah / Michigan Under
10 Okl St
10 USC
Ben Burns
Game: Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have had an extremely disappointing season. However, they're still a much better team than the Royals and they're currently playing much better baseball. Of course, that's not hard to do, as KC is now 0-4 its last four games and an awful 3-17 its last 20. The point is, that KC is really struggling right now.
Duckworth has only made start this season. That came against these same Tigers and was also against Rogers. Duckworth didn't pitch particularly well but managed the victory as the Royals bailed him out with some runs. All the same, he allowed 11 baserunners in just five innings (2.2 WHIP) showing that he was fortunate to allow only three runs. That was at KC though and the Tigers have hit much better at home all season long. Indeed, the Tigers are batting .295 at home and averaging 5.5 runs. On the other hand, the Royals are averaging just four runs per game on the road, while hitting only .251.
Even with the recent victory, the Royals are still just 1-6 in Duckworth's last seven starts. Looking back further and we find that Duckworth's teams (Royals and Astros) are just 5-12 his last 17 starts, dating back to 2004. A closer look shows that Duckworth only even lasted six or more innings in two of those starts and never made it through seven. Conversely, Rogers has gone six or more innings in four straight starts and 14 of his last 17. Look for Rogers to outlast and outpitch Duckworth, avenging last week's loss and handing the Royals yet another setback.
Ted Sevransky
Western Michigan @ Nebraska
PICK: Nebraska
Western Michigan is getting an awful lot of credit from the betting marketplace for their late season win at Iowa last November, taking the cash as 13 point underdogs while keeping the Hawkeyes at home for bowl season. Yes, the Broncos won that game fairly convincingly, as quarterback Tim Hiller threw for more than 350 yards. But there’s absolutely no comparison between a banged up, worn out mediocre Iowa squad from last November and the fired up, focused Nebraska team they’ll face today.
It’s not like Western Michigan is a top flight ‘mid-major’ program with a long and storied history of big road upsets against BCS conference foes. Let’s not forget how West Virginia rolled up 316 rushing yards in last year’s season opener against the Broncos, a 62-24 shellacking. Nor should we forget Western’s 39-20 loss at a five win Indiana team to open up the 2006 campaign, another double digit loss against the pointspread.
New Cornhuskers head coach Bo Pelini has the Nebraska program (and fan base) as fired up as they’ve been since Tom Osbourne retired nearly a decade ago. Look for the Nebraska ground game to wear down the Western Michigan defensive front, leading to a lopsided final result. Take Nebraska.
Lee Kostroski
New York Mets @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Under
Mike Pelfrey and Ricky Nolasco have been two of the top pitchers in baseball the last several weeks as they both own incredible 0.76 WHIPs over the past three starts. The Mets have won eight of Pelfrey’s last ten starts and he has allowed three or fewer runs in seven of those games. Pelfrey has pitched back-to-back complete games heading into this start and in his last road start he delivered seven shutout innings.
Nolasco has made six consecutive quality starts, posting 51 strikeouts and just three walks in that span. The ‘under’ has cashed in four of his last five starts and he pitched well against the Mets earlier in the month. Neither team is hitting particularly well of late with the Mets featuring a .257 team average and Florida hitting .243 over the past ten games. The ‘under’ has also cashed in seven of the last eleven Florida home games.
Nine runs were scored in last night’s games between these teams but six of those runs came in the ninth inning as the game was on pace to stay well ‘under’. The ‘over’ has had success in this series but the way there teams are hitting and with two quality pitchers on the mound it is unlikely to follow that trend today. Pelfrey and Nolasco have been two of the top pitchers in the NL in recent weeks and this is a very low scoring stadium this time of year.
David Chan
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Colorado Rockies
Play on the Colorado Rockies to win 0.5 units (free play). The Rockies continue to gain ground on the D'Backs in the N.L. West, now only 6.5 games back. The thought of another late season run into the playoffs is starting to become reality and tonight I look for them to take another step in the right direction.
Ubaldo Jimenez has been a big part of the Rockies resurgence. They've won six of his last eight starts, and he has pitched well enough to win in nine of his last 11 outings. He is 0-2 at Petco Park this season, but it hasn't been a result of poor pitching. In three starts against the Padres this year, Jimenez has given up only 16 hits and six earned runs in 17 2/3 innings. He's struck out 20 while walking seven in those three starts.
Jimenez should continue to receive plenty of offensive support tonight. The Rockies bats have produced 32 runs over their last six games. They scored nine runs last night, but the damage could have been much worse were it not for 20 men left on base.
Joshua Geer will make his first big league start for the Padres. His numbers at the AAA level weren't all that impressive, 8-9 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. I'm not sure that the Rockies are the team you want to be facing in your first major league outing. They'll make Geer work early on, and take advantage of a struggling Padres bullpen in the later innings. That 'pen has to be gassed as five of the last six Padres starting pitchers haven't made it through the sixth inning.
We have a small umpire advantage to work with tonight as the Rockies are 2-0 with Dale Scott calling balls and strikes this season. He tends to have a large strike zone and that should help Jimenez, who has had problems with his command this season, walking 82 hitters.
The Rockies have won just four times in 14 Jimenez road starts this year, but those four wins have come in his last five tries away from home. This is an extremely confident Rockies bunch right now, and they're catching a satisfied Padres team that swept the division-leading D'Backs earlier in the week. Prior to that sweep the Pads' had lost seven in a row so it's not as if they're in solid form right now.
Steve Merril
North Texas @ Kansas St.
PICK: Kansas St.
Kansas State had a long history of dominating weak teams at home under former head coach Bill Snyder and it appears new coach Ron Prince has continued that tradition as he stands 6-1 ATS as a home favorite the past two years.
Meanwhile, North Texas has a history of struggling in early non-conference games. This tradition continued last year under first-year head coach Todd Dodge as the Mean Green lost 10-79 at Oklahoma State and also lost 7-66 at Arkansas.
North Texas was a horrendous defensive team last year, allowing 45.1 points per game and 6.7 yards per play (versus opponents that averaged just 28.4 ppg and 5.6 yppl), so Kansas State should have plenty of offensive success tonight. This will also make it easier for the Wildcats to extend the margin and cover this large pointspread. Kansas State has plenty of motivation for a fast start this year after a disappointing 1-5 SU finish to the 2007 season that kept them from a bowl game.
Play KANSAS STATE (-).
Cajun-Sports
MLB Executive Club
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: 4* Arizona Diamondbacks -136
Arizona and LA square-off in this critical game two of a three-game weekend set. The D-Backs lead the NL West by 4.5 games over the Dodgers after winning on Friday night by a score of 9 to 3.
Arizona has won eight of 13 clashes in this rivalry this season, including five of seven meetings at Chase Field. Los Angeles has now dropped eight straight games, all on the road, and the team is 3-14 in its last 17 away from Dodger Stadium.
Billingsley will take the bump for LA and they have lost four of his last five, including a 5-0 setback at Philadelphia on Monday as the right-hander allowed three runs in six innings. Billingsley is 4-6 on the road despite a decent 3.02 ERA, and L.A. is 4-9 when he pitches as a visitor.
Billingsley is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in three starts against the D-Backs this year, including 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA at Chase Field.
Haren will take the mound for the D-Backs and the right-hander has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 15 outings. He is 10-3 in 14 starts at Chase Field and 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA versus L.A. this season, with both wins coming at home, where he allowed a combined three runs (one earned) in 13 innings (0.69 ERA) with 12 strikeouts and two walks.
Joe Torre’s team is mired in a losing skid of 1-10 overall, 1-5 within the division, 1-4 with Billingsley pitching, 0-4 behind Billingsley on the road and 1-7 when Billingsley faces the N.L. West.
Data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to Play On MLB (NL) home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a team batting average <=.255 against a starting pitcher whose ERA <=3.70, with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season, 72-23 SU since 1997 and 24-8 SU the last three seasons.
Power Angles for this contest: LA DODGERS are 1-10 against the money line in road games after scoring 4 runs or less 4 straight games this season. ARIZONA is 20-5 against the money line in home games with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons
With LA struggling and Arizona trying to distance themselves from this Dodgers team we look for a strong effort from the host tonight.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -136