WILD BILL
Memphis + 9 (5 units)
Nebraska -14 (5 units)
Washington State + 6 (5 units)
Florida -33 1/2 (5 units)
Kansas -37 (5 units)
Illinois +8 (5 units)
Virginia +21 (5 units)
JB Sports
Utah @ Michigan Under 40.5
Michigan is undergoing drastic changes in offensive philosophy under new coach Rich Rodriguez. It's going to take awhile for this offense to mesh as not only is it a drastic change from the past but they also are having to break in 8 new starters, including a new QB. Michigan's defense should be the strength of the team this year so I do not look for Utah to put up a lot of points either. Therefore, let's look for this one to stay under the total.
Larry Ness
Utah State at UNLV
Prediction: Utah State
UNLV and Utah State opened against each other last year as well, with the Rebels coming away with a 23-16 win. UNLV scored with 1:02 remaining in that game, which ended the school’s 15-game road losing streak (FYI, the Rebels went on to lose their other five road games last year). UNLV’s only other win in ‘07 came at home against Utah (27-0 shocker), as the team ended the year on an eight-game losing streak (2-10 overall). That leaves head coach Mike Sanford just 6-29 in his three years at the school and squarely on “the hot seat.” Sanford insists there has been improvement with the program since his arrival but it’s a “hard sell” when the team has managed just two wins in each of his three years in Las Vegas. Even more troubling has been the fact that his teams have unraveled in similar fashion. Losing the final eight games last new was nothing new, as the ‘06 team went 1-10 after winning its season-opener and the ‘05 team lost eight of its last nine, including its final five. Now Utah State is not exactly a powerhouse, as the Aggies are just 3-21 the last two years. However, they do open the ‘08 season on a two-game winning streak, after winning their final two games of the ‘07 season, 35-17 and 24-19. The back-to-back wins ended a 16-game losing streak and surprisingly, both wins came on the road (at New Mexico St and at Idaho). I should mention at this time that the Aggies have won their last FIVE visits to Las Vegas and that the Rebels are a pathetic 6-17 ATS as home favorites, a record that stretches back into the 1990s. I’ll also mention that UNLV is 0-4 ATS in its last four tries as a double-digit favorite, twice losing outright. Utah State was reasonably competitive in all but two games in ‘07 (lost at Oklahoma 54-3 and at home to Boise State 52-0) and was particularly good away from home, covering EVERY road game but the team’s trip to Norman (6-1 ATS). Let’s take the points.
Right Angle Sports
Oklahoma State -7 at Washington State
OSU head coach Gundy made a controversial QB switch to Zac Robinson early last season and it paid off as the team ended up setting a school record for total offense. They finished the season winning six of ten including a bowl game that gave them valuable extra practice time. Of the four losses mentioned two were the result of improbable double digit late comebacks (up 17 lost by 1 to TA&M, up 21 lost by 3 to Texas) and the two others came vs top 10 opponents. More importantly the team now has a junior dual threat signal caller poised for a breakout year. The offense returns seven starters in all, including a top notch offensive line, 1st team all conference tight end, and a promising sophomore receiver. Combined with a more experienced Robinson in his second year as a full time starter, the offense will again be potent. If the Cowboys get any improvement out of their defensive unit they will be a scary team. That has been the specific focus during the offseason. Five of the top six tacklers return and an infusion of upper echelon JC talent has added much needed speed and depth. Coaches are optimistic after seeing marked improvement in Spring & Fall scrimmages.
Washington State has not had a winning season since 2003. They have only avoided further embarrassment in recent years by featuring one of the better passing attacks in the West. Now the school's all time leading passer has departed as have three of the top four receivers from last year. Two projected replacement starting receivers (Blackledge & Anderson) are out with injuries this week and the team's top RB is probable but less than 100% as he recovers from offseason knee surgery. One of the biggest criticisms of departed head coach Doba was how poorly he recruited during his five seasons, and insiders say it will take at least few years to improve the talent base here. The Cougars are at a major disadvantage early on having to adjust to a new head coach, a new offensive system, and a new QB. Progress was slowed in fall camp due to an inordinate number of injuries. First year coach Wulff 8 days ago said, "We have an unacceptable amount of people on the injured list. In all my years of coaching, I have never seen anything like this. It's affecting our growth as a team." This game will be played five hours from WSU's campus at Qwest Field (home of the Seahawks) which takes away some home field advantage. In the unlikely event that WSU's new QB and brand new offense clicks on all cylinders right out of the gate this game has a chance to be competitive, otherwise look for the Cowboys to win by double digits. Give the points.
Updated Info: Since this play was released the line has moved from -6.5 to -7, OSU has announced the suspension of projected starting WR Damian Davis, WSU has announced that returning starting offensive lineman Dan Rowlands has been forced to quit football, and key reserve DT Andy Roof has been kicked off the team. WSU had OL issues even before losing Rowlands. I still recommend OSU as a play up to -7.
Play: Oklahoma State -7 1 UNIT
LT Profits
USC @ Virginia Under 43.0
The USC Trojans are the favorites to win the national championship, thanks in part to a great defense, while the Virginia Cavaliers should also have a good defense even with Chris Long departed.
USC is talented at every position, but for the time being, the defense looks to be ahead of the offense. This is only because they are so deep at running back that no one has emerged as the clear-cut starter yet, so the timing may be a tad out of synch until a go-to guy emerges. The defense was fantastic last year, but even though the unit lost three key starters to the NFL, big things are expected from a prized defensive recruiting class.
Now Virginia was not exactly an offensive juggernaut in 2007, and they are now turning the offense over to quarterback in Peter Lalich, who saw some action as a true freshman. The USC is a daunting task for his sophomore debut though. The Cavaliers will have to rely on their defense to win games this year, and although Long is obviously a devastating loss up front, the Cavs do have veteran linebackers and defensive backs to pick up the slack.
The key to this contest is that only one team will be doing most of the scoring, which usually makes it difficult for a game to go Over.
Pick: USC, Virginia Under 43
Utah St. @ UNLV Under 48.0
Both Utah State and UNLV are coming off of lousy seasons last year, and we expect both offenses to struggle to generate many points here.
Utah State is very inexperienced on the offensive side of the ball, with untested quarterback Sean Setzer and a bunch of young running backs. Their top returning receiver from last season is actually tight end Rob Myers, who had just 320 receiving yards last season. While the offense is green, the Aggies do have a lot of seniors on defense led by linebacker Jake Hutton, who was among the conference leaders in tackles last year.
The Rebels have a similar make-up, which is probably not a good thing after going 2-10 last year. UNLV is virtually a one man show on offense, with that man being running back Frank Summers. Not only did Summers rush for 928 yards last year, but he is also a receiving threat out of the backfield. As for the defense, the Rebels ranked number 22 in the entire country in pass defense last season, and while the run offense is suspect, Utah State simply does not have the tools to take advantage of that.
UNLV beat the Aggies 23-16 for one of their two wins last year, and while they may or may not emerge victorious again, we do expect the final combined point total here to closely resemble that output from last season.
Pick: Utah State, UNLV Under 48
The Gold Medal Club
Ohio vs Wyoming
PLAY WYOMING -11
These teams met last year in Ohio with the Cowboys coming out on top 34-33 despite turning the ball over 7 times! Whats changed?
Well, Ohio has lost QB Brad Bower and 1st team ALL MAC running back Kalvin Mcrae.
For Wyoming who managed to cover 2 games ats last season, we have the entire offensive line back to open the holes for standout running back Wynel Seldon.
We see one team on the rise and the other in decline. A home opener, with a sleeper team , we will lay the chalk here as the Cowboys will dominate from start to finish.
Note Ohio 11-1 ats in there last 12 on grass, while Wyoming 1-12-1 in there last 14 on grass..we're not biting!
Oddswiz
TCU vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico +6.5
Last year TCU shut out New Mexico 37-0 but that score really not indicative of the difference between these two teams. A look at common opponents suggests that the talent level between these two much closer than that one game. TCU in better shape with returning starters but REVENGE can be sweet in college football, especially when your a touchdown home dog. This game opened -5.5 over a month ago and has been bet up to -6.5 even 7 with heavy juice in a few spots. We'll do a lean on New Mexico here.
Bryan Leonard
Utah @ Michigan
PICK: Under
The Utes are loaded this year with fifth year senior QB Brian Johnson returning fully healthy. A win here and a victory over rival BYU could set up a possible BCS Bowl with an undefeated season. While the offense gets most of the credit defensively the Utes are well stocked. They could be the most balanced team in the Mountain West Conference.
There has been a great deal of change in Ann Arbor as the Wolverines welcome in former West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez. He was one of the innovators of the popular spread option offense which worked so well for the Mountaineers. The problem is that none of these players were recruited to run this offense. The team brings back just three starters on offense which is probably a good thing considering the change in scheme. But they did lose not only graduation losses but also multiple offensive line deflections as well as a quarterback transfer. It's easy to say that this scoring unit will be a work in progress all season for the Wolverines. While the offense tries to get the system learned the defense will have to carry the load. Michigan brings back a very talented stop unit who should fare much better than in the past vs the spread attack. Keep in mind that these players will face the spread everyday in practice, and the team has recruited more defensive speed the past two seasons.
With Michigan changing offensive schemes we can really see them struggling to score on Saturday. Look for Rodriguez to be very conservative offensively as he lets the defense keep them in the game. Utah will have a tougher time moving the ball on a much improved Wolverine defense which is much more accustomed to the spread than in last years opener against Appalachian State. The host doesn't have the offensive firepower to compete here so we expect Michigan to take as much time as possible in keeping the ball on the ground. Less plays equal less scoring as this game stays under the posted total.
PLAY UNDER
Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
5000* ELITE NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
Florida -34
Robert Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #171 Oklahoma St. (-7) over Washington St.
Here we have two teams that are at two completely different stages. Oklahoma State is a dark horse in the ultra-competitive Big 12 which, to me, is the No. 2 conference in the country. Washington State is breaking in a new coach, an entirely new offensive system, and a new quarterback to replace the school’s all-time leading passer. The Cougars are a second-tier team in a conference on the decline (at least for this year) and I think they are still finding themselves. Also, Wazzou players have been dinged up over the past couple weeks and I’ve read reports that Wulff has said that the number of injured players is “unacceptable”. We already know they will be starting a freshman left tackle and they just dismissed DT Andy Roof this week. Further, this game is being played in Seattle, which negates some of the WSU’s home-field edge and will only make the OSU speed that much more lethal. Oklahoma State is an experience team, with a veteran quarterback leading a sharp, athletic offense. The Cowboys know what they’re doing, and coach Mike “I’m a Man” Gundy said he learned a lot from last year’s opening-week beat down at Georgia. He will have his Cowboys in Seattle a day earlier and they will be more prepared for this contest. We’ll take the talent and the more advanced offense in this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #185 Southern California (-19.5) over Virginia
This is one of those games that I’ve looked at and I just don’t see how it could NOT be a blowout. And it’s not that I am so overwhelmed by USC. That’s not it. It’s that Virginia caught lightning in a bottle in 2007 and were – literally – about a half-dozen plays away from being a 4-9 or 5-8 team. They lost their heart and soul in Chris Long and have been gutted on both the offensive and defensive lines. They lost their quarterback, two of their top three wideouts, and seven of their nine starting linemen. Much like the South Carolina game, this is a situation that I just don’t think that UVA will score more than 10 points. The Trojans, on the other hand, will find ways to score with their plethora of skill position players. Also, I like it that they are going on the road to start the season. It gets them out of their comfort zone, gets them away from everyone at home telling them how good they are, and makes them focus on just what’s going on between the lines. The ACC has been dreadful against other BCS schools and is 36-56-3 ATS in nonconference games over the last two years.
2-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (+13.5) over Tulsa
I think this number is a little thick for a Tulsa team that is trying to replace seven defensive starters and All-World quarterback Paul Smith. The Golden Hurricanes rang up nearly 700 total yards against the Blazers last year at home, but won just 38-30. Now they open on the road, against a more experienced, improved, revenge-minded UAB club, without their quarterback as a two-touchdown favorite? UAB is 11-1 SU in home openers dating back to 1996 and they are 8-3-1 ATS as a home dog over the last eight years. Tulsa is not a great road program, traditionally, going just 17-32 SU over the last eight seasons. And UAB has a history of early-season surprises. Remember their seven-point loss AT Oklahoma in 2006? Or how about their seven-point loss AT Tennessee in 2005? I remember both clearly. And I think that they might actually get the upset this time around.
2-Unit Play. Take #165 TCU (-6.5) over New Mexico
I am looking for a steep drop-off from New Mexico, a team that had a nice W-L record (9-4) but a weak ATS mark (5-7) last year. Basically, despite a host of talent and one of the better offenses in the Mountain West, the Lobos overachieved and got a bit lucky. Not this year. And not in this game. TCU has been dominating in conference over the last several years (34-14 SU in L6 years, 15-7-2 ATS in L3) and they have owned the Lobos. They have won three straight in the series by an average score of 38-16, including last year’s 37-0 blowout. New Mexico brings back just 10 total starters from that game, including just one offensive lineman, zero linebackers, and zero DE’s. TCU welcomes back 15 starters from the team that rocked the Lobos, including eight defensive starters. The Frogs have a load of experience and a great coach. If this game was played later in the year at this line I might stay away. But I just think that TCU is much further along than NMU and that will negate any home-field edge.
(I WOULD WAIT TO PLAY THESE NEXT TWO PICKS BECAUSE I THINK THE LINES MAY REACH +28)
1.5-Unit Play. #195 Louisiana-Monroe (+26) over Auburn
It’s a similar theme to the weekend: Auburn has a new offense, two new quarterbacks, two new coordinators, and are just 3-3 SU in their last six home openers. Yet they are laying nearly four touchdowns. Curious. Louisiana-Monroe has been spry under Charlie Weatherbie. Last year they covered as 26-point underdogs at Clemson and won as 25-point dogs at Alabama. In 2006 they went 3-1 as an underdog of 20 or more points, nearly winning at both Kansas and Kentucky, while also covering at Arkansas. In 2005 they covered at Georgia early in the year also, and in 2004 they covered at both Auburn and Arkansas as underdogs of more than four touchdowns. This is a veteran Warhawks squad, with eight retuning defensive starters and six three-year starters on offense. ULM is 9-3 ATS in the last two years as a road underdog and 12-5 ATS over the L3 years. They are also 8-3 ATS over the last four years as an underdog of 20 or more points, with most of those covers (7-2) coming on the road against SEC opponents. Tony Franklin knows UL-M from his days at Troy, but the Warhawks held Troy to two of its lowest outputs (24 each) the L2 years. That means Monroe might be more familiar with Auburn’s offense than the Tigers are!
2-Unit Play. Take #189 Idaho (+27) over Arizona
The Wildcats are just 3-14 ATS as a home favorite over the last seven years and just 1-7 ATS in the last three years. Idaho has covered its first game of the year – a road game as a huge underdog against a marquee BCS foe – in each of the past three years. Last year they actually put up nearly 200 yards of offense at USC to easily cover a 47-point line, losing 38-10. In 2006 they lost by just 10 at Michigan State (as 29-point dogs) and in 2005 they lost by just 12 at Washington State (as 29-point dogs). Arizona can’t stop anyone and the Vandals, like Arizona, return 10 starters on offense. Arizona is without a key offensive weapon and I have little, if any, confidence in Mike Stoops. And Willie Tuitama, for that matter. The Stoops-Willie combo is a bit shaky, and Stoops is just 2-5-1 ATS in nonconference games in his tenure at U of A. And that doesn’t count three shaky wins over Northern Arizona in non-lined game (agv .win: 20 points). Arizona has also won seven straight home openers, but just by an average of 20 points. I think Idaho can score just enough to keep this one interesting and keep us in the back door.
Alex Smart
3* Michigan State +5
Ben Burns
4* Northwestern -11.0
4* California -4.5
LT Profits
2* Louisiana Tech +7.5
2* Northern Illinois +8.0
2* Michigan State +4.5
Ted Sevransky / Teddy Covers
5* Oklahoma State -7.0
4* USC -19.0
3* Auburn / Lou Monroe Over 49.0
Gamebreaker College Football
Power Triple Play
Virginia Tech
Boston College
Clemson