Dr Bob Opinions
Pitt
KSt
Cal
UAB
Utah
La Mon
Ohio U / Wyo Under
Nelly
Louisiana Tech + over Mississippi State
Louisiana Tech was outscored 82-10 in two games against the SEC last season but this is a huge opportunity to level the playing field with a chance to host a big-time school after routinely visiting hostile SEC environments year after year. The La Tech Bulldogs will break in an inexperienced QB but the rest of the offense is well in-tact for a solid season. Louisiana Tech was very tough at home last year nearly ending Hawaii’s perfect season bid in September and playing Boise State close as well. Mississippi State enjoyed a breakthrough with eight wins last year but the record could crash back this year after several close wins and good fortune. The MSU offense was inconsistent much of last season and the MSU Bulldogs are not used to playing as a road favorite. We expect these teams to go in opposite directions this season as Ruston is a very tough place to play as WAC teams can attest. Tech looks dangerous here, especially with a good chance of stormy weather.
BIG AL
#1 COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE MONTH
Memphis
93% (14-1) EARLY SATURDAY NCAA ROUT
Gators
Carlo Campanella
Game: Michigan St. at California
Prediction: Michigan St.
Michigan State opens the NCAA season on Saturday with a tough trip to the west coast to face the Cal Bears, but must "take" the points here as they’ve been a money machine during Head Coach Mark Dantonio’s rookie season while owning a 5-1 ATS on the road and 5-0 ATS as Dogs, while never losing by more than 7 points last season! Cal opened last year with 4 straight wins, however, they won just 2 of their final 8 games while posting a 1-7 ATS record. Tough spot to rebound against an aggressive unit from the Big 10.
7* Play On Michigan State
Nick Parsons
Game: La.-Lafayette at Southern Miss
Prediction: La.-Lafayette
I am posting this play for you on Friday because the line on this game continues to move downward and I want you to be able to get the best number on this game! Don’t ignore the added board during the college football season! The added board can equate to “added profits” and we look to prove that right away in Week 1 of the College Football season. This Saturday night affair features a big number and the line has already come down as money has come in on UL-Lafayette. Certainly though, the value with the Ragin’ Cajuns is not gone because, as of this writing they are still catching double digits against a team they can absolutely compete with! The Cajuns are truly a “running dog” and those are often the most dangerous dogs! UL-Lafayette is expected to have one of the best running games in the Sun Belt Conference this season. The defense does need to improve this season but there is no shortage of athleticism on that side of the ball and the fact that the Ragin’ Cajuns went just 4-7 ATS last season is giving us solid line value to kick off the 2008 season with a play on UL-Lafayette plus the big points. The Ragin’ Cajuns have great team speed on both sides of the ball and they their offense will absolutely keep Southern Mississippi on their heels here. UL-Lafayette is “flying under the radar” a bit right now because they truly do have wealth of returning talent from a team that was better than the 3-9 mark they ended up with last season. The Golden Eagles were 7-6 last season and then they wrapped up the year with a bowl loss to Cincinnati. They have a brand new coaching staff as well as just ten returning starters so this truly could be a rebuilding year for Southern Mississippi. The Eagles do have a solid running game but their passing offense could struggle as they try to learn the new playbook. Still lacking playmaking ability at the WR position is not helping in that regard. The defensive line is rebuilding and the secondary has a number of holes due to graduation. Laying double digits last season saw the Golden Eagles go just 1-3 ATS and they lost two of those games outright as a big favorite. This is not a good role for them and this is especially true in Week One of the regular season as there has been both coaching and personnel turnover at Southern Mississippi. The Ragin’ Cajuns are the play here plus the big points!
Marc Lawrence
Game: Bowling Green at Pittsburgh Panthers
Prediction: Bowling Green
The word out of Pittsburgh is that this year’s team is so talented not even head coach Dave Wannstedt can screw things up. Or can he? Wanny’s Panthers may not have a walk in the park here against the BeeGees, a squad that’s loaded with 17 returning starters and owns a 5-1-1 ATS log in its initial road game of the season. Hey, we like 7-plus win teams taking double digits from losers, a setup that’s cashed 9 on the last 13 tickets in lidlifters. And even though Pittsburgh has shown some pointspread success squaring off with the MAC (5-1 at home) and in Game One situations (4-1 L5), they’ll also be buckling beneath the unfamiliar weight of high expectations from a host of preseason pundits. Pitt could very well be this year’s surprise team in the Big East but we’ll have to witness a few convincing sermons before we go changing religions. Today doesn’t look like the day. Grab the points.
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Utah at Michigan
Prediction: Utah
I'm playing the Utah Utes, plus points. The Michigan Wolverines will no doubt be in "upset watch" mode when they welcome the Utah Utes to the Big House. After all, last season's opening loss to Appalachian State would make anyone a bit skiddish, especially a new coaching staff that inherits the pressure to succeed right out of the blocks. But new HC Rich Rodriguez will have to get things done with several key components missing from last season's offensive unit. QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, WR Mario Manningham are all gone, and the Wolverines will have to replace four of last season's five starters along the offensive line. It's an offensive line made up mainly of juniors, but their two years of experience were obviously in a much different offense than the one they're learning under Rodriguez. Making matters tougher for the Wolverines is the strength of the team they're opening up against. Utah is entertaining thoughts of an undefeated season if they can get by the Wolverines. They'll have a few serious tests down the road, including a game against rival BYU, but UM obviously presents the biggest hurdle on the way to their goal. Utah suffered a ton of injuries last season that amounted to a total of 51 lost starts. HC Kyle Whittingham's Utes return 14 starters to this year's version, including eight on offense, not to mention several two-deep players who received valuable experience last season due to the injuries mentioned above. As the Utes began to get healthy and newcomers began to get comfortable after being thrown into starting roles, Utah found their way after a sluggish start. They won eight of their last nine games, with the only loss coming by just a TD at BYU. QB Brian Johnson, ironically, would be "just the man" to run Rich Rodriguez' spread attack. Unfortunately for the new Michigan coach, Johnson is a Ute. Johnson is healthy this season and brings with him the MWC's best running back corps, led by senior Darrell Mack. Those running backs will line up behind a loaded offensive line. Four of five starters are back up front, totaling 83 starts between them. Defensively, the Utes bring Paul Kruger back to the mix at defensive end. He will lead a solid pass-rushing front-four. The linebacking corps may be down a notch from last season, (lost Jamel King in spring practice), but will be bolstered by a strong secondary that returns nine of their top 10 players. As far as techinals are concerned, Utah has been a decent money-maker in the role they're in on Saturday. The Utes are on a 38-19, 67% spread run when installed as an underdog, and they're a healthy 22-9, 71% ATS run when getting 3 1/2 to 10 1/2 points, (currently +3 1/2). Meanwhile, the Wolverines are on an 18-34 spread slide laying 3 1/2 to 10 1/2 points and they have covered just three of their last nine non-conference tilts. While those numbers came under the old regime, I do expect the new staff's schemes to take a while to take hold. Meanwhile, their dangerous visitor has their most talented team in four seasons under HC Whittingham. Look for the Utes to shock the Wolverines on Saturday. I'm taking the points with Mountain West entry, Utah.
Ace-Ace
4-Unit Play. #136 Take Stanford (+3) over Oregon State
We’re going to take a shot with Jim Harbaugh and the home dogs of Stanford. The Cardinal welcomes back a host of experience, including 16 starters, and should be roaring to go for this home opener. Harbaugh has this team and this program revitalized, and they’ll look to use that energy to overtake an Oregon State team in transition. The Beavers have to replace their entire front seven and will be without safety Al Afalava. Also, OSU All-Pac-10 guard Jeremy Perry will not even make the trip. The Cardinal upset OSU in 2005 and played them tough on the road last year before falling. I’m looking for an outright win here.
3-Unit Play. #145 Temple (-7) over Army
This is a revenge game for the Owls, who lost 37-21 at home against the Black Knights last season. But Temple actually “won” the stats in that game, and bring back 21 starters (11 on from the MAC’s No. 1 defense) from the club that took the field that day. Army is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country, with just eight returning starters. Al Golden has his Temple program headed in the right direction and I think they step off with a big win to open the season. The Owls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against Independants and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on turf.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘UNDER’ 40.5 Utah at Michigan
Neither one of these clubs boast what can be called an “explosive” offense, and I think two big, physical lines will control this contest. The Wolverines are playing their first game in Rich Rodriquez’s spread offense attack and this will be the first start for many of the skill players for UM. Michigan does return seven starters from a powerful defense and 11 of their top 15 tacklers from 2007. The teams combined to allow just 38 points last year and I think it will take at least a quarter for both clubs to work the jitters out. The ‘under’ is 7-1 in Utah’s last eight road games and 9-3 in Michigan’s last 12 home contests.
6-Unit Play. #171 Take Oklahoma State (-7) over Washington State
This is my Game of the Month and I think we’ve found a great spot to attack the books early in the year! Oklahoma State brought back several key weapons from the No. 22 scoring team in the nation last year, including Zac Robinson to quarterback the Cowboys’ no-huddle spread option attack. Wazzou, on the other hand, is trying to replace the program’s all-time leading passer, Alex Brink, while learning a new system under new coach Paul Wulff. On top of that, the Cougars will be starting a freshman at left tackle, as starter Vaugh Lesuma is likely out with a bad back, and starting DT Andy Roof was just expelled from school this week. This game is being played on the turf of Qwest Field, which negates some of the home-field advantage for WSU. We’re going with a team that has more overall experience and more familiarity in its system, and we’re looking for a double-digit win by the talented team from the Big 12.
3-Unit Play. #203 Arkansas State (+19) over Texas A&M
Here we are going to play against another coach making his debut in the college ranks. Mike Sherman comes to A&M from the NFL and is implementing a completely new offensive scheme, going against the classic option-based attack the Aggies have run for years. Texas A&M is 3-0 against Arkansas State, but its average margin of victory is just 18 points. While I think the Aggies win this one, I think this number is too high and that the Red Wolves offense will be able to move the ball well enough to keep us under it.
4-Unit Play. #162 Take Oregon (-13.5) over Washington
The Ducks have dominated this Pac-10 rivalry over the past several years, earning a 4-0 record both straight-up and against the spread. Oregon’s average margin of victory in those games has been 22.5 points and per game and it’s been since 2000 that this series has been decided by less than 20 points. Oregon welcomes back a load of talent on both sides of the ball from a team that rushed for nearly 500 yards against the Huskies last year! Mix in the fact that the Huskies will be relying on a bunch of rookie starters – playing their first game in one of the toughest venues in the country – and I’m looking for a blowout. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, the home team is 4-1 ATS, and the Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home against the Huskies.
3-Unit Play. #209 Colorado (-10.5) over Colorado State
We’re siding with the road chalk in this rivalry game out west. Dan Hawkins is in his third year at CU and his son, Cody, leads an offense that should be much stronger with outstanding freshman running back Darrell Scott leading the way. CSU coach Steve Fairchild is making his first start as a head coach at any level and simply doesn’t have the talent to keep up with a rugged Big 12 team.
3-Unit Play. #211 Fresno State (+5) over Rutgers
Are you ready for some Monday afternoon football? The Bulldogs of Fresno State have a chance to be a BCS sleeper in the mold of Boise State and Hawaii over the last two years. Fresno returns 10 starters from an offense that finished No. 38 in the country last year. I think they can win this game outright and we’re getting good value on a team that started the season in the Top 25.
Dave Cokin
Akron @ Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -26.5
I've never been shy about spotting a big number where it's warranted, especially early in the season when the differences between teams may not be yet fully recognized. That's the case as Akron heads to Wisconsin. The Zips basically have no chance in this game. They were terrible against the run last season, and the defense figures to be even worse to start this season. The Badgers are at their best when they can simply pound a soft stop unit on the ground, and I look for them to rumble for five plus yards per carry in this game. Akron looks totally overmatched here, and I expect a 5TD win by the Badgers. I'll lay the big number with Wisconsin.
Great Lakes Sports
Ohio U at Wyoming
Play:Wyoming Cowboys
The Wyoming Cowboys are a solid 11-3ATS in their last 14 non-conference games, and they are 7-2ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992. The Ohio U Bobcats are only 30-34ATSas an underdog since 1992, and they are a terrible 19-23ATSwhen playing on grass since 1992. We look for the Wyoming Cowboys to roll over the Ohio U Bobcats for the home ATS win & cover tonight.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Tulsa over UAB
One of the games on the card where a solid line study would detect an underlay is in the aforementioned contest. Last season, the initial campaign for Neil Callaway as HC, saw the Blazers catch 23 points from the offensive minded kids from Oklahoma. Tulsa delivered the win, but could not make up the huge spread winning just 38-30. Here the Blazers return 16 starters, but the team was 2-10 in 2007 and gave up 35 points a game on defense. With the offense losing QB Sam Hunt’s experience, I doubt UAB in game #1 can be competitive against a club that averaged 41 points per game last season.
Marc Lawrence
Bowling Green at Pittsburgh Panthers
Prediction: Bowling Green
The word out of Pittsburgh is that this year's team is so talented not even head coach Dave Wannstedt can screw things up. Or can he? Wanny's Panthers may not have a walk in the park here against the BeeGees, a squad that?s loaded with 17 returning starters and owns a 5-1-1 ATS log in its initial road game of the season. Hey, we like 7-plus win teams taking double digits from losers, a setup that's cashed 9 on the last 13 tickets in lidlifters. And even though Pittsburgh has shown some pointspread success squaring off with the MAC (5-1 at home) and in Game One situations (4-1 L5), they'll also be buckling beneath the unfamiliar weight of high expectations from a host of preseason pundits. Pitt could very well be this year's surprise team in the Big East but we'll have to witness a few convincing sermons before we go changing religions. Today doesn't look like the day. Grab the points.
David Malinsky
USC @ Virginia
PICK: USC 4*
What happens when you put great talent and great coaching together? USC’s program happens, that is what. And what happens when you give that combination time to fully prepare for an opponent? Routs happen, even when the opponent is capable of matching up. Virginia is not that class of opponent, so now that our sources tell us that Mark Sanchez is looking comfortable again in practice, we can step in here.
Let’s look at some Pete Carroll history with major preparation time since the end of his second year with the program, when he had a chance to put his full playbook into action. First, the bowl games –
2002 Orange – USC 38 Iowa 17 as -4.5
2003 Rose – USC 28 Michigan 14 as -7
2004 Orange – USC 55 Oklahoma 19 as -1
2005 Rose – USC 38 Texas 41 as -6.5
2006 Rose – USC 32 Michigan 18 as -1
2007 Rose – USC 49 Illinois 17 as -14
That is an outstanding 5-1 SU and ATS, beating the pointspread by a significant 80 points. And remember that even in the Texas loss in the 2005 Championship Game the Trojans led by 10 in the 4th quarter, but could not hold off Vince Young. Now on to openers –
2003 – USC 23 Auburn 0 as +3.5
2004 – USC 24 Virginia Tech 13 as -17
2005 – USC 63 Hawaii 17 as -36
2006 – USC 50 Arkansas 14 as -8
2007 – USC 38 Idaho 10 as -47
A most impressive run there also, and we can excuse the margin against Idaho LY, as Carroll was holding his team under wraps for what was perceived as a showdown game at Nebraska the following week (which his Trojans then went out and completely dominated). And the Idaho contest was the only one played at home, which made it even easier for him to back off.
So what do we see here? First, a complete dominance by the Southern Cal defense, which not only should be the nation’s best this season, but has a chance to be among the best in recent memory. We could see five Trojan starters on that side of the ball draft in the NFL first round next April. That creates a huge headache for a Virginia OL that is breaking in far too many new faces, with only 48 returning starts for the entire group. It means not only a challenge in terms of talent, but also tactics as well, as the Trojan blitzes and complex schemes take a toll. And exacerbating the issue is the lack of experience at QB for the Cavaliers, which creates the real chance of the Southern Cal defense directly scoring points.
The Trojans will also dominate the line of scrimmage when they have the ball, mashing through a Virginia defensive front that does not return a single starter, and will have depth issues on a hot afternoon. The physical presence and leadership of Chris Long will badly be missed in that huddle, as the younger players drag their heads when forced to be on the field far too long.
Yes, Virginia is coming off of a bowl season, but put an * next to that – the Cavaliers set an all-time NCAA record by going a prefect 5-0 in games that were decided by two points or less. And these were not escapes against major powers, with North Carolina, Middle Tennessee, Connecticut, Maryland and Wake Forest on the list. They are in way over their heads here in terms of talent, and with 14 starters that combined for 378 career starts missing from 2007, the experience is also not there to handle the negative situations that this game will provide. There will be plenty of such situations – in the only dress rehearsal before having two weeks to prepare for Ohio State, Carroll can go for the jugular here, knowing that it is the only chance to get the timing down for both units. And with only the travel roster on hand there are few options for letting up anyway – that is an awfully talented plane.
Jimmy Moore
Mississippi State @ Louisana Tech
Pick: Miss State -8
I know being a road favorite is not that familiar for the Bulldogs but coming off of a very successful season last year they will be very focused on a good start, especially considering thier opener last season where they lost 45-0 to LSU. Lay this short number with the much better team.
Norm Hitzges
Double Play--Utah +3 vs Michigan
Double Play--Wyoming -11 vs Ohio
Double Play--Colorado -11 vs Colorado St
Double Play--Michigan St +4.5 vs California
Utah/Michigan Under
Memphis +7.5 vs Mississippi
Wisconsin -26.5 vs Akron
W. Michigan +14.5 vs Nebraska
Oregon -13.5 vs Washington
New Mexico +6.5 vs TCU
Oklahoma St -7 vs Washington St
Florida -34.5 vs Hawaii
USC -19.5 vs Virginia
ULaLa +10.5 vs So. Mississippi