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Alabama Crimson Tide at Clemson Tigers -5
The Clemson Tigers head into the 2008 season with high hopes, as they are expected to win the ACC Title and will be in the hunt for the National Title. They will get a tough test in their home opener against a tough, yet young, Alabama Crimson Tide team. Clemson is stacked, especially on offense, where they scored a school record 430 points last year. Even though the Crimson Tide lost 6 games last season they did not lose by more than a touchdown in any of those games. Clemson is led by QB Cullen Harper (2991 yds 27 TD 6 INT in 2007), who is a legit NFL player, who will be handing the ball of to, arguably, the best backfield duo in the nation of James Davis (1064 yds 10 TD in 07) and C.J. Spiller. (768 yds 3 TD in 07). Harper's main target is Aaron Kelly (88 rec 1081 yds 11 TD in 07), who should break the ACC reception record if he stays healthy this season. On defense Clemson ranked 9th in the nation in 2007. Alabama is led by QB John Parker Wilson (2846 yds 18 TD 12 INT in 07), who will be handing it off to the backfield duo of Terry Grant (891 yds 8 TD in 07) and Glen Coffee (545 yds 4 TD in 07). Wilson's main target will be Mike McCoy (28 red 207 yds 1 TD in 07), but there are many new faces of the Crimson Tide receiving corps that have high expectations. Alabama ranked 31st in total defense in 2007.
Staff Pick: Even though the Tigers have a legit offense their defense may be even better, maybe the best in the country even though they lost 4 linebackers. The Tigers were in the top 10 in the nation in 2007 in scoring defense (18.3 ppg) and total defense (297.2 ypg). The Crimson Tide are a solid team, but are very young and they may be a couple of years away from being in the top 10 or getting a BCS Bowl bid. However, they are talented and their secondary is especially strong. The youth of the Crimson Tide is apparent in their up front D, as the entire defense returns only 5 starters from last year. They will have a tough time containing Spiller and Davis. Unlike many other top 10 teams that are playing Division 1AA teams, Clemson will have a test to see how good they really are right away. DB Chris Chancellor said, "We don't want any cupcake team to open up." Even though the Crimson Tide has the secondary to keep Harper from lighting them up, their inexperienced D line will not contain the Tigers rushing attack and the Tide will have a hard time scoring on the Tigers D. Look for Clemson to come out smoking and beat the Tide convincingly and easily cover the spread.
Tigers 35 Crimson Tide 14
Illinois Fighting Illini at Missouri Tigers -9
College football season is finally here, SWEET, and this is the biggest game of the opening docket, as Illinois travels to St. Louis to play the upstart Missouri Tigers and Heisman hopeful QB Chase Daniel. Mizzu has title hopes and unlike many top 25 teams they do not play a Division 1AA cream-puff in order to pad their win total, as they go head-on into the season with a tough test against #20 Illinois. The Illini were a surprise last season and even though the were crushed by USC they did play in the Rose Bowl and head coach Ron Zook thinks they will be even better in 2008. Mizzu is led by Heisman hopeful QB Chase Daniel (4306 yds 33 TD 11 INT on 2007), who is legit and exciting to watch. Daniels will be handing it off to RB's Derrick Washington and Jimmy Jackson, who take over in the backfield for a departed Tony Temple. Daniels main target is another Heisman candidate in Jeremy Maclin (80 rec 1055 yds 9 TD's), who is constantly commanding double teams. On defense last year the Tigers ranked 59th in the nation, but were especially weak against the pass. Illinois is led by the Juice, in QB Juice Williams who can beat you with his arm (1743 yds 13 TD's 12 INT's) and his legs (755 yds 7 TD's). He will be handing the ball off to RB Daniel Dufrene (294 2 TD's), who will be the feature back now that Rashard Mendenall plays in the NFL. Williams' main target is Big 10 Freshman on the year in 2007 Arrelious Benn (54 rec 676 yds 2 TD's 158 yds rushing). On defense Illinois ranked 55th on total defense in 2007.
Staff Pick: Even though the QB advantage has to go to Daniel in this game, Williams is a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators, as he can pass and run. The key to this game may be which team's secondary plays better. The Tigers D up front has to contain Williams and keep him in the backfield and not let him pile up the rushing yards. Mizzu ranked 9th last year in passing offense, while the Illini were 109th. This is deceiving because Williams can hurt teams through the air, but if the Mizzu D contains him rushing the ball the Tigers will be sitting pretty. The Illini D will have a tough time with Daniel, as Illinois gave 376.8 per game last year, which was the 5th most yards given up in the Big 10. If Mizzu can get some production out of their rushing attack they have a great shot to win this game. There are studs on offense for both teams, but Mizzu has way too much firepower and the Illini do not have the secondary to stop Daniels. Look for him to have a big day and for Mizzu to win this game and cover the spread.
Tigers 34 Illini 22
The Gold Sheet
Memphis +7½
Sharp Sports Advisors
WYOMING -11
The Fall Miracle
KENT STATE +10
USA Sports Consulting
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +36
All Free Picks
VIRGINIA TECH -9.5
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SYRACUSE +12.5
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MEMPHIS 8.5
Armvin Sports
Nebraska -14
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BOSTON COLLEGE -9.5
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Wyoming
Value- Champ Sports
Boston College
Vegas Steamline
Kansas St
Jack Clayton
UL Monroe
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Mich St
Ross Benjamin
Wyoming
CAPPERS ACCESS
Nothwestern
Virginia
Missouri
California
Winners Edge
Mississippi - 7.5 , 2 units
Western Michigan 14.5 1 unit
Michigan - 3 , 1 unit
LVSA
Oklahoma St -7
USC -19.5
Nebraska -14
Wunderdog
Akron at Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin -26.5
Coach Bielema has taken this Wisconsin team to January Bowl games his first two years. But this may in fact be his best team yet. The offensive line is one of the best in the country and they have several backs that can do damage running the ball. They return 17 starters from a 9-win team a year ago. The Zips finished 3-5 in the MAC last season and return only 13 starters which is tied for fewest in the conference. They were outgained by MAC opponents last year by 70+ yards per game, and have just five defensive players returning. The defensive line struggled against MAC opponents so how will they fare versus one of the top offensive lines in the country? You get the picture. This is a lot of points but we see a Wisconsin rout here, and will lay the heavy points.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Utah at Michigan
Michigan kicks off the Rich Rodriguez era in Ann Arbor with a non-conference tussle against always pesky Utah from the Mountain West Conference.
After leading West Virginia to the brink of the BCS Championship Game last year, Rodriguez agreed to take over for long-time Wolverines coach Lloyd Carr. He inherits a squad that went 9-4 SU and 7-5 ATS in Carr’s final season, but only 5-3 SU and 4-3 ATS in the Big House, including a stunning Week 1 loss to Division I-AA Appalachian State.
Utah went 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS in coach Kyle Whittingham’s third season, finishing in a tie for third in the Mountain West standings. The Utes did cash in six of their last eight games after going 1-4 ATS to start the year; however, they finished just 3-4 SU and ATS away from home, including failing to cover in a bowl game victory over Navy.
Rodriquez has installed a spread offense at Michigan, but he won’t have many experienced players to run it as the Wolverines lost their top two quarterbacks, their leading rusher and their top two wide receivers from last year, when the team averaged 27.8 points per game.
Utah returns nine of 11 starters on offense, including oft-injured senior quarterback Brian Johnson (66.5 percent completion rate, 1,847 yards, 11 TDs, 10 INTs), who helped the Utes put up 26.2 ppg in 2007. Defense was the team’s strength in 2007, though, yielding just 16.8 ppg, best in the Mountain West.
While at West Virginia, Rodriguez was just 9-14-1 ATS as a home favorite. Also, the Wolverines have failed to cash in seven of their last 10 lined non-conference games. Meanwhile, the Utes are 7-4 ATS as an underdog since Whittingham took over and 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 non-league contests.
The under is 11-2 in Michigan’s last 13 games before October 1 and 9-3 in the Wolverines’ last 12 at home. Also, the under is 9-5 in Utah’s last 14 outings and 7-1 in its last eight on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER
Memphis at Ole Miss
Ole Miss looks to open the season with a victory over Memphis for the fourth consecutive year when these cross-state rivals hook up in Oxford, Miss.
Houston Nutt moves from Arkansas to Ole Miss hoping to turn around a Rebels program that went 10-25 in three straight losing seasons under former coach Ed Orgeron, averaging just 15 ppg in the process. Ole Miss, which hasn’t had a winning season or been to a bowl game since 2003, returns 16 starters to a squad that went 3-9 SU and 6-6 ATS last year, including 2-5 at home (4-2 ATS).
Memphis rode a strong offense (29 points, 444 yards per game) to a 7-6 record last year (7-5 ATS). The Tigers won five of their last six regular-season games (all in Conference USA) to earn a bid to the New Orleans Bowl, their fourth postseason appearance in the last five years. Memphis returns 14 starters, but one key loss was standout QB Martin Hankins (3,220 yards, 25 TDs, 12 INTs)
Mississippi jumped out to a 23-0 lead against Memphis last year and had to hold on for a 23-21 win, coming up just short as a 2½-point road favorite. Although the Rebels have won the last three series meetings, the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five battles between these rivals. In fact, the last four clashes have been decided by a touchdown or less, with the last two by a combined five points.
Going back to the end of the 2006 season, Memphis has cashed in 10 of its last 15 lined contests, including four straight as a visitor. Also, the Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS as a road underdog under coach Tommy West, including 8-4-1 ATS in that spot since 2005.
The Rebels are mired in ATS slumps of 1-6-1 as a favorite, 1-6 when hosting non-conference foes and 1-4 against Conference USA. They’re also 13-25-2 ATS in their last 40 games as a home chalk. Additionally, Nutt was as mediocre as you could possibly get during his final six seasons at Arkansas, going 36-36-1 ATS overall.
The under is 15-6 in Ole Miss’ last 21 games overall (4-1 last five in non-conference), but the over is 7-3 in Memphis’ last 10 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS
Washington at (21) Oregon
Oregon and Washington jump right into the Pac-10 Conference season when they battle at Autzen Stadium, with the Ducks hoping to pummel the Huskies for the fifth straight time.
Behind Heisman Trophy candidate Dennis Dixon, Oregon (9-4 SU and ATS in 2007) won and covered eight of its first nine games last year to climb into national title contention. However, Dixon suffered a season-ending knee injury in an upset loss at Arizona and the Ducks’ season went south, as they ended 0-3 SU and ATS before bouncing back with an impressive 56-21 upset victory over South Florida in the Sun Bowl.
Oregon, which averaged a Pac-10-best 38.2 points per game last year, lost its top two players in Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart, but coach Mike Bellotti has 13 starters back (seven on defense) as he guns for his fourth straight winning season and bowl bid.
Washington (4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS) has endured four straight losing seasons, the last three under coach Ty Willingham. Last year, the Huskies finished dead last in the Pac-10 (2-7, 3-6 ATS), thanks mostly to a defense that yielded 31.6 ppg overall and 35.7 ppg in conference. One bright spot for Washington is the return of quarterback Jake Locker, who had 2,062 passing yards, 986 rushing yards and 27 total TDs (but 15 INTs) as a redshirt freshman last season.
Oregon not only has won and covered each of the last four meetings against the Huskies, but all four games were 20-plus-point blowouts. That includes last year’s 55-34 rout by the Ducks, who cashed as a 12½-point road underdog.
Going back to 2005, Oregon is on a 12-5 ATS spurt at home, including 7-1 ATS as a double-digit home chalk. Also, the Ducks have cashed in five of their last six season-openers, including the last three in a row, and they’re 11-3 SU (9-5 ATS) in Pac-10 openers the last 14 years, winning by an average of 18.6 ppg.
Washington is mired in a 7-10 ATS slump since the middle of the 2006 season, including 2-5 ATS versus conference foes and 2-4 ATS in Pac-10 road games . The Huskies are also 3-10-1 ATS over the last 14 years in league openers.
The under is 4-1 in Oregon’s last five home games, and the under is 7-2 in the last nine series meetings. However, Washington is on a 10-4 “over” streak since the final game of the 2006 season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON
Oklahoma State vs. Washington State, at Seattle
Paul Wulff makes his debut as Washington State’s head coach when he leads the Cougars against Oklahoma State in an intriguing Big 12 vs. Pac-10 battle at Qwest Field in Seattle.
After four straight non-winning seasons under Bill Doba – including last year’s 5-7 (6-6 ATS) campaign – Washington State recruited Wulff from nearby Eastern Washington. Wulff inherits a team that put up 25.7 ppg overall, but gave up 32.4 and got outscored by nearly two touchdowns per game (35-22) in conference play. Wulff has 14 starters back from last year, but the coach’s biggest task is finding a replacement for four-year starting QB Alex Brink (3,818 yards, 26 TDs last year).
The Cowboys are coming off consecutive 7-6 seasons under coach Mike Gundy, and they’re an equally mediocre 12-11-1 ATS during this stretch. However, Gundy has led OSU to back-to-back postseason victories, including a 49-33 rout of Indiana in last year’s Insight Bowl. Six starters return on both sides of the ball, including versatile QB Zac Robinson (2,824 passing yards, 847 rushing yards, 32 total TDs in 2007), who leads a Cowboys offense that averaged nearly 35 ppg last year.
Oklahoma State is 7-4 ATS as a favorite going back to 2006, and it did cash in four of its last five away from Stillwater last year. But the Cowboys have lost 19 of their last 24 road games overall, falling by an average of 18 ppg.
Washington State has played one game a year at Qwest Field in Seattle since 2003, going 1-4 ATS in that span, including 0-2 ATS against the Big 12. However, the Cougars went 4-1 ATS as a true home underdog the past two seasons, and they closed last season on a 5-2 ATS tear (3-1 ATS at home).
The over is on streaks of 11-5-1 for Washington State overall, 7-1 for Washington State in non-conference action and 9-4 for Oklahoma State on artificial turf.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(17) Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina, at Charlotte, N.C.
Virginia Tech opens up against East Carolina for the second consecutive season as the Hokies begin their quest for their 16th straight winning season and their fifth consecutive year with double-digit victories.
The Hokies (11-3, 7-5-1 ATS) went on a 5-0 SU and ATS tear to cap the 2007 regular season and win the ACC Championship. However, they ended with a bowl-game loss for the fourth time in the last five years, a 24-21 setback against Kansas in the Orange Bowl. Coach Frank Beamer, now in his 21st year, gets back just nine starters from a team that averaged 28.7 ppg and gave up 15.5 ppg, second-best in the nation. Senior QB Sean Glennon (61 percent completion rate, 1,796 yards, 12 TDs, 5 INTs) returns, but without his top four wide receivers.
East Carolina (8-5 SU and ATS) continued its steady improvement under coach Skip Holtz, posting its second straight winning season, including a 41-38 upset victory over Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl. The Pirates have 12 returning starters, including top two QBs Patrick Pinkney and Rob Kass, both of whom passed for more than 1,000 yards last year. Pinkney has been named the starter for this game. However, star RB Chris Johnson (1,423 yards, 17 TDs) is now in the NFL, leaving a hole in an offense that rang up 31 ppg a year ago.
In last year’s season opener, the Hokies went off as a 27½-point home favorite against East Carolina, but never threatened to cover in a hard-fought 17-7 victory.
Virginia Tech went 7-2 SU and ATS down the stretch last year, with the winner cashing in each contest. In fact, the Hokies are an impressive 36-12-2 ATS over the last four seasons, going 15-3 ATS on the highway during this stretch. However, they have failed to cover in six straight non-league games.
Since Holtz took over at East Carolina in 2005, the Pirates are 26-11 ATS, including 20-8 ATS over the past two-plus seasons. Additionally, with Holtz at the helm, East Carolina is 5-2 ATS against the ACC, 17-6 ATS as an underdog and 13-3 ATS as a road pup, and the team has cashed in three straight season openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: EAST CAROLINA
(20) Illinois vs. (6) Missouri, at St. Louis
Following a breakthrough 2007 season, expectations are high for Missouri, which opens up for the second straight year with a neutral-site game against Illinois at the Edward Jones Dome.
Behind record-setting senior QB Chase Daniel, the Tigers (12-2, 10-3 ATS in 2007) finished ranked fourth in the nation last year and are the odds-on favorite to repeat as Big 12 North champs. Daniel completed 68.2 percent of his passes as a junior for 4,306 yards, 33 TDs and 11 INTs, pacing an offense that averaged 40 points and 483 yards per game. Missouri, which has its highest preseason ranking in school history, returns a total of 17 starters, including 10 to a defense that held five opponents to 17 points or less a season ago.
Illinois rebounded from the loss to Missouri and went on to a 9-4 record (7-5 ATS) and a second-place finish in the Big Ten standings, a major turnaround for a program that had won just two games in each of coach Ron Zook’s first two seasons. The Illini capped their improbable year with a trip to the Rose Bowl, where they lost 49-17 to USC.
Illinois, which averaged nearly 28 points and 430 yards per game last year, lost star RB Rashard Mendenhall to the NFL, but QB Juice Williams (1,743 passing yards, 755 rushing yards, 20 total TDs) is one of 13 starters returning, six of them to a defense that held nine opponents to 22 points or fewer last year.
Missouri is on a 3-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry since 2002, including last year’s thrilling 40-34 victory as a five-point favorite in St. Louis. The Tigers led 37-13 in the third quarter before fending off a furious Illini comeback.
The Tigers are on pointspread streaks of 17-8-1 overall (12-3 in the last 15 games), 9-2 as a favorite, 6-0 in non-conference play, 5-1 versus the Big Ten and 6-1 at neutral sites. Meanwhile, Illinois has cashed in seven of its last 10 as an underdog, but is 1-6 ATS in its last seven non-Big Ten battles.
The over was 8-4 for the Illini last year, with the last four games all easily hurdling the posted price. Also, the over is 9-4 in Illinois’ last 13 non-conference games. Meanwhile, eight of Missouri’s first 10 games last season went over the total – including the shootout against Illinois – but the last three stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI
Michigan State at California
Cal looks to bounce back from a disappointing finish to the 2007 season, starting with this clash with Michigan State in a Pac-10 vs. Big Ten showdown.
The Bears (7-6, 4-9 ATS in 2007) started out 5-0 and were on the brink of reaching the top of the national rankings when they suffered a heartbreaking 31-28 upset home loss to Oregon State. Including that setback, Cal finished the regular season in a 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS slump before righting things with a 42-36 win over Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Michigan State’s first season under coach Mark Dantonio was full of near-misses, as the Spartans (7-6, 8-5 ATS) lost six games by a touchdown or less. They did finish the regular season with consecutive upset wins over Purdue (48-31) and Penn State (35-31), but came up short against Boston College in the Champs Sports Bowl, losing 24-21 but cashing as a five-point underdog.
Cal lost its leading rusher and top five pass-catchers from last year’s squad, which averaged 29.3 ppg. Although QB Nate Longshore (60 percent, 2,580 yards, 16 TDs, 13 INTs) returns after starting most of last year, he’s been supplanted by Kevin Riley, who went 16-for-19 for 269 yards, three TDs and no picks in the bowl win over Air Force. Defensively, the Bears get seven starters back on a unit that allowed more than 26 ppg in 2007.
The Spartans return starting QB Brian Hoyer (59 percent, 2,275 yards, 20 TDs, 11 INTs) and leading rusher Javon Ringer (1,447 yards, 6 TDs) to an explosive offense that put up 33 ppg last year. However, Michigan State is looking for marked improvement on defense after giving up nearly 27 ppg a season ago. In all, 12 starters are back on both sides of the ball.
Going back to his final year at Cincinnati in 2006, Dantonio-coached teams are 15-7-1 ATS on the road (5-1 ATS last year) and 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog (5-0-1 ATS last year). Also, Michigan State has won three consecutive road openers, including two outright upsets, all against BCS teams. However, the school is 0-5 ATS in its last five versus the Pac-10.
Cal has been a pointspread disaster in recent years, going 14-26-1 ATS in its last 41 lined games. Also, the Bears are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 when laying points.
The over cashed in eight of Michigan State’s last 10 games in 2007. Also, the over is 11-4 in Cal’s last 15 at Memorial Stadium, 6-1-1 in its last eight against non-league foes and 4-1 in the last five versus the Big Ten.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and OVER
SPORTS ADVISORS
(3) USC at Virginia
USC’s quest for a third national championship in the Pete Carroll era begins in Charlottesville, Va., where the Trojans are a prohibitive favorite to take down Virginia.
The Trojans (11-2, 6-7 ATS in 2007) enter this contest on a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) after routing Illinois 49-17 in the Rose Bowl. USC has posted an NCAA-record six straight 11-win seasons under Carroll, going 70-8 SU during this stretch. Last year, the Trojans dominated on both sides of the ball, outscoring opponents by an average of 17 ppg (33-16) and winning eight games by double digits.
Carroll replaces departed QB John David Booty with junior Mark Sanchez, who is slated to play today despite having knee surgery earlier in the month. Sanchez started three games in place of the injured Booty last year and finished with a 60.5 percent completion rate, 695 passing yards, seven TDs and five INTs.
Virginia went 9-4 last year (6-6-1 ATS), winning an NCAA-record five games by two points or less as the team finished second to Virginia Tech in the ACC Coastal Division. The Cavaliers, who put up 24.4 ppg in 2007, lost their starting quarterback, but return their top two rushers and their No. 1 receiver. Meanwhile, only five starters are back on a defense that allowed only 19.7 ppg last year.
USC has cashed in five straight non-conference road games and is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 outside the Pac-10, but Pete Carroll’s squad is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 as a double-digit favorite. The Trojans have won their last 10 openers by an average of 25 points (36-11), going 3-2 ATS.
Virginia has been a beast at Scott Stadium recently, cashing in 24 of its last 34 in front of the home fans. Additionally, the Cavaliers are 14-6 ATS as a home underdog since 1998, including 12-2 ATS in the last 14 as a home pup. But they’ve failed to cover in seven of their last nine outside the ACC.
For USC, the under is on streaks of 18-7-1 the last two seasons (10-3 in 2007), 4-1 on the road and 5-0 in August. The under is also 13-6 in Virginia’s last 19 home games and 4-1 in its last five in August.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(24) Alabama vs. (9) Clemson, at Atlanta
The game of the day takes place at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, where Clemson battles Alabama in an ACC-SEC clash between ranked teams.
Clemson (9-5, 6-6 ATS in 2007) is a heavy favorite to win this year’s ACC crown and secure its ninth straight winning season under coach Tommy Bowden. The Tigers cashed in six of their first nine games in 2007 before failing at the window in their final three, including a 23-20 overtime loss to Auburn as a 2½-point chalk in the Chick-fil-a- Bowl at the Georgia Dome. In fact, Clemson’s last thee games wee decided by a total of eight points.
Alabama (7-6, 3-7-2 ATS) is looking to make a significant leap in coach Nick Saban’s second season. Saban’s troops stumbled to the finish line last year with three consecutive SU and ATS losses before beating Colorado 30-24 as a 3½-point favorite in the Independence Bowl. None of the Crimson Tide’s six defeats were by more than a touchdown.
The Tigers return 15 starters, including eight to a defense that yielded just 18.7 ppg. On offense, QB Cullen Harper (65 percent, 2,991 yards, 27 TDs, 6 INTs) is back, along with Clemson’s top six rushers and its top seven wideouts.
The Crimson Tide, who put up 27 ppg and allowed 22 ppg a season ago, have a bunch of returning weapons on offense, including QB John Parker Wilson (55.2 percent, 2846 yards, 18 TDs, 12 INTs) and leading rushers Terry Grant (891 rush yards, 8 TDs) and Glen Coffee (545 rush yards, 4 TDs).
Alabama has been a risky bet the last three seasons, going 12-22-3 ATS dating to 2005, including 1-4 ATS in the last five non-league tussles. On the bright side, the Crimson Tide are on a 9-0-1 ATS roll against Top 10 teams.
Clemson has gotten off to fast starts the last three years, going 3-0 SU and ATS in season openers, but all three of those were home games in Death Valley. Also, the Tigers have failed to cash in five of their last six non-ACC games and four straight against the SEC.
For Clemson, the under is on streaks of 3-0 overall, 4-1 away from home, 12-5 in non-league play and 6-1 against the SEC. Meanwhile, the Tide stayed low in three of their final four contests in 2007, and the under is 13-6 in their last 19 non-conference affairs
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (65-70) at Arizona (69-65)
Runs figure to be at a premium tonight at Chase Field, where Diamondbacks co-ace Dan Haren (14-6, 3.10) battles the Dodgers and Chad Billingsley (12-10, 3.15) in the middle game of a crucial three-game set between the top teams in the N.L. West.
Arizona snapped a four-game losing skid with Friday’s 9-3 victory over Los Angeles, moving 4½ games in front of the slumping Dodgers in the N.L. West race. The DBacks are on positive streaks of 6-2 at home, 5-2 on Saturday, 7-2 behind Haren overall and 10-4 with Haren working at home.
Los Angeles has now dropped eight straight games, all on the road, and the teams is 3-14 in its last 17 away from Dodger Stadium. Additionally, Joe Torre’s team is mired in funks of 1-10 overall, 1-5 within the division, 2-6 on Saturdays, 1-4 with Billingsley pitching, 0-4 behind Billingsley on the road and 1-7 when Billingsley faces the N.L. West.
Arizona has won eight of 13 clashes in this rivalry this season, including five of seven meetings at Chase Field.
Billingsley has delivered a quality start six times in his last seven trips to the mound, including the last four in a row. However, L.A. has lost four of his last five, including a 5-0 setback at Philadelphia on Monday as the right-hander allowed three runs in six innings. Billingsley is 4-6 on the road despite a decent 3.02 ERA, and L.A. is 4-9 when he pitches as a visitor.
Haren gave up two runs on nine hits while striking out 11 in seven innings at San Diego on Monday, but wasn’t involved in the decision as the DBacks lost, 4-2. The right-hander has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 15 outings. However, he’s gotten rocked in his last two home starts against the Padres and Braves, yielding 11 runs (all earned) on 21 hits in 11 1/3 innings, raising his home ERA from 2.49 to 3.26, but he’s 10-3 in 14 starts at Chase Field.
Billingsley is 0-3 with an ugly 7.71 ERA in three starts against the DBacks this year, including 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA at Chase Field. On the other hand, Haren is 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA versus L.A. this season, with both wins coming at home, where he allowed a combined three runs (one earned) in 13 innings (0.69 ERA) with 12 strikeouts and two walks.
For the Dodgers, the under is on runs of 9-4 against the N.L. West, 4-1 against a right-handed starter, 5-1 on Saturdays, 13-6 overall when Billingsley starts, 7-2 when Billingsley works on the road and 5-0 when Billingsley pitches on Saturday. Conversely, the over is 5-2 in Haren’s last seven starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
PRO INFO SPORTS
2 STAR SELECTION (2.5% of Bankroll)
KANSAS STATE -26 over North Texas
The Wildcats host the "Mean" Green on Saturday to kickoff the football season for both teams. Kansas State is a big favorite here, as they should be. North Texas is coming off a horrendous season in which the team went just 2-10, and since going 7-5 in 2004, they have simply been have been atrocious, posting a combined 7-28 ledger over the last three years.
Kansas State has suffered through their third losing season in the last four years, posting just a 5-7, but they are poised to get back to a winning campaign in 2008.
North Texas relied heavily on the passing attack last season, but neither Daniel Meager or Giovanni Vizza were very successful. The two signal-callers combined for just 21 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. Vizza returns and will be little more than target practice for K-State.
On defense, North Texas surrendered an eye-popping 45+ points per game and nearly 500 total yards per outing in 2007. They allowed 230 rushing ypg last season and lost three starting linebackers, so that number doesn't figure to improve any time soon.
The Wildcats were an extremely dangerous offensive unit last year, especially with their passing attack. Josh Freeman threw for 3,300+ yards and 18 TDs. Freeman should have another solid season and we expect him to scorch North Texas here.
Kansas State's main problem this past season came on the defensive side of the football, as the team was abused for nearly 31 ppg, but it should be more than adequate against the Not-So-Mean Green.
The Wildcats simply feast on teams like North Texas, as they are 5-0 SU (+35.8 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+13.9 ppg) as a non-conference home favorite since 2005, including 54-7 SU win over North Texas as a -27' favorite. Meanwhile, North Texas is 0-14 SU (-38.4 ppg) & 0-14 ATS (-13.4 ppg) in non-conference road games vs. opponents not off a SU loss of 40+ points, including last year when they lost at Oklahoma 79-10 as a 41-point dog and 66-7 at Arkansas as a 36-point underdog.
Kansas State will make a statement here, looking to come roaring out of the gates with a stomping of the Mean Green.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KANSAS STATE 47 NORTH TEXAS 13
Johnny Detroit
Oklahoma St. -7.0 vs Washington St.
It seems everyone from Joe Public to Mr. Paid Handicapper is all over Oklahoma State in their game against the Pac 10 and Washington State. The line opened up at 4.5 and is currently sitting at 7.0 as we update this page on Friday night. So right now we have three HUGE strikes against us: The public, the paid handicappers and losing the value off the opening number. Despite all of this our offshore sources are still confident that Oklahoma State rolls and even at -7.0 is still a solid play.
Oklahoma State quarterback Zac Robinson should have a field day on Washington State to the displeasure of the crowd backing the Pac 10 squad. Lay the points in what could get ugly by the time the 4th quarter starts.
Matty O'Shea
Pittsburgh -13.0 vs Bowling Green
Even though I am not a big fan of Pitt head coach Dave Wannstedt, the Panthers simply have too much talent on both sides of the ball that I would be very surprised if they do not win this game by more than two touchdowns. Pitt has one of the top running backs in the country in LeSean McCoy, and QB Bill Stull will see his first action since the team's 27-3 season-opening win over another MAC team in Eastern Michigan last year. Bowling Green may be able to score some points, but the team's defense surrendered 207.8 rushing yards per game last year and will have a very difficult time stopping McCoy. Pitt is 25-2 all-time against MAC opponents and has never lost to one at home, and I think the talent level and depth will be the difference here. Take the Panthers as my early NCAA Blowout Play O' the Day.
Rocky Atkinson
Boston College @ Kent State
Play: 1* Kent State +10
Boston College is 0-6 ATS last 3 years as a road favorite. Boston College is 1-4 ATS last 5 non-conference games. Boston College is 1-5 ATS last 6 games overall. Boston College is 0-5 ATS last 5 games in August. Rocketman Ratings has Kent State to surprisingly win this game straight up by 5.07 points giving us great value in getting double digits. We'll recommend a small play on Kent State as our FREE pick on Saturday
ETHAN LAW
FLA ATLANTIC (0-0) Florida Atlantic Owls at Texas Longhorns TEXAS (0-0)
I don't know what it is and why I seem to almost every year flock to this Texas team, but again I am compelled to go with them early since they are massively undervalued in this spot. In fact, I was shocked when I saw this number at just 23 but its pretty clear Vegas is hoping that bettors remember that last season they also opened their season against a Sun Belt opponent and barely escaped with a win over Arkansas State. Clearly, the bettors will think that since Florida Atlantic is the defending Sun Belt champion, they have a great chance at covering this number. However, that?s where I come in because I am not fooled by this line and neither should you. This is a team that is eager to get back on the map and one that has been overlooked by the so-called experts who are already jumping on the bandwagon of teams such as Missouri, Kansas and Texas Tech. Despite that fact, rest assured this years version of Texas can be a lot better then most people expect especially with the addition of talented defensive coordinator Will Muschamp and a roster of exceptionally talented young players ready to break through. Despite not receiving all that much credit, the Longhorns quietly finished last season with the nation?s 13th best offense in total yards and 14th in scoring. Although the losses of their star running back (Jamaal Charles) and some of their talented receivers might reflect nominally in their overall production, rest assured that this Texas offense should still be within the top 25 in the nation when its all said and done. Texas posses a very deep and talented set of players to replace the aforementioned departures and they keep in tact their veteran offensive line (which is mistakenly overlooked) as those are the guys that in most instances make this offense efficient and very dangerous. Also back is the filed general as junior quarterback Colt McCoy, is off a very strong season 3,303 passing yards, 65% completions and 22 touchdowns. McCoy also ran for 492 yards last season, giving opposing defenses just a little something else to think about. One the defensive side of the ball, they have a new defensive coordinator who will bring very aggressive blitzing packages, giving pass happy teams all kinds of problems, especially considering the talented athletes he has to work with on defense.
Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic comes into this contest the talk of the Sun Belt after last seasons impressive performance where they posted a 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS mark in conference play. Expectations are as high this season as they are returning ten starters return to the league's second best offense, led by junior quarterback Rusty Smith, while eight players are back on defense. Despite some of the rather gaudy offensive numbers this team has put up, it should be noted that those numbers were against many of the poorer defenses in the country or numbers put up after the game was already determined against the power conference teams, where they have not show much of an ability to hang around. Indeed, Florida Atlantic lost 42-6 at Oklahoma State and 45-17 at Kentucky last season and they are a poor 1-6 SU & ATS the last two years against big schools. Florida Atlantic?s only incentive to ply this game is the fact they are getting $900,000 to play this game and with a look-ahead to a winnable game at home against UAB on deck they will simply just want o get off the field without any injuries. Fundamentally, Texas has better talent on every position on the field and the Longhorn offensive line will have their way from start to finish in this contest. The Owls also lost both starters at safety, a position where there was little depth, which is terrible news against a Texas offense that can strike early and often. As such, expect Texas to pass and run the ball with ease throughout this contest, against a defense that allowed opposing offenses 33.2 points per game and that was with last years veteran secondary. Want even more bad news FAU backers? FAU will be shorthanded on offense for this contest with center Nick Paris (foot) out, starting guard Kevin Miller (knee) questionable, and starting defensive end Robert St. Clair (knee) out. Let?s also not forget that the Owls previously lost top receiver in Jason Harmon for the season. Factor in the fact that the Longhorns are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS the last five openers and we can bet with confidence that Texas will cover this large number. Texas will score plenty and has a reputation of running it up in these home openers. KILL!
Verdict: Florida Atlantic 13, Texas 45
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON TEXAS -23.5
LA LAFAYETTE (0-0) Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns SOUTHERN MISS (0-0)
Many of my long-term clients know that many times my selections come from under the radar games between relatively obscure teams. Many times that is where the best line value can be found, because the casual player bets mainly on games involving the BCS power conferences. One of those match-ups is the game between the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-6 SU & 6-6 ATS) and the La. Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns (3-9 SU & 5-6 ATS). Now before we begin with the heart of this analysis I will put a caveat: Southern Mississippi is by far the better known of these two programs! They come into the 2008 season having just completed their 14th consecutive winning season under the direction of head coach Jeff Bowers. Impressive to say the least! But guess what? Coach Bowers (who spent 29 years in Hattiesburg as a player and coach) was shockingly fired and replaced by Larry Fedora, who comes to Southern Miss after spending the last three seasons as the offensive coordinator of the offensive juggernaut Oklahoma State. Bowers departure and Fedora's arrival could spell some early season trouble for the Golden Eagles since the days of running the football 70% of the time will be replaced with a very complex spread offense that will undoubtedly not be hitting on all cylinders early on in the season. Perhaps if he had the personal to make this offense instantly click, one could argue that this game could be a route, but that definitely not the case in this situation as the Golden Eagles will have a very inexperienced and unproven quarterback in sophomore Martevious Young, who threw only 2 passes as a freshman last season. There has even been some grumblings that even as the date of this writing, Fedora might chose to go with another quarterback, so do not be surprised if the Southern Miss defense is rather ineffective to start 2008. The lack of offensive firepower I expect early in the season neutralizes the Rajin' Cajuns biggest weakness, their defensive unti that was one of the worst in the country last season. However, this season their defense may not be all that bad, since they return most of the defensive line (experience alone will improve them), and Antwyne Zanders, Brenton Burkhalter and Grant Fleming form one of the league's best linebacking corps, and depth is the unquestioned strength of this stop unit. Their cohesiveness and experience playing together again will be key in controlling the Golden Eagle's main offensive weapon in junior running back Damion Fletcher. Fletcher enters 2008 as the leader and star of Golden Eagle team, and he will be relied on heavily early this season since the passing attack will likely have some noticeable growing pains. While Fletcher's rushing numbers are impressive on their face, it should be noted that those numbers were accumulated against some of the worst run defenses in college football last year. Conference-USA had some of the most sieve-like run defenses from the same conference in recent memory, so Southern Mississippi's rushing numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. In reality, Fletcher will get his yards in this game, and as articulate below, the La. Lafayette defense will only need to keep the damage to a minimum to stay within this double digit number.
Having read most of the so-called experts' reviews on the teams in preparing for this season, most have agreed that the strength of the Southern Mississippi team will be a defense that was quit simply one of the very best at stopping the run last season. However, it is important to keep in mind that the operative word in the last sentence was "last" season because this season the Golden Eagles will experience almost a complete overhaul of their defensive unit with just four returning starters from last season! There is also a new defensive coordinator (oh boy) in Todd Bradford who has stated publicly that he wishes to install an aggressive, blitzing defense aimed at making the quarterback uncomfortable. So similar to the new offensive ideology, it appears that the Golden Eagles will try a new defensive ideology, and like the offense, they simply do not have the experience or talent to be effective in making such a drastic change. Indeed, Southern Miss will be starting four new players on their defensive line. Surprisingly, this is where I believe we will get out unit-on-unit fundamental match-up advantage that should be enough to get us our point spread cover in this contest as this inexperienced defense will have to contend with a very talented and explosive Rajin' Cajun rushing attack. Very few people would even know that La. Lafayette finished 7th in the nation with 3019 rushing yards in 2007! Even more impressive was their 5.6 yards per carry average, which placed them 5th nationally. The talented leader of their explosive ground game is Sr. quarterback Michael Desormeaux. He averaged a whopping 6.1 yards per carry while amassing 1141 rushing yards in 2007. His backfield running mate is senior tailback Tyrell Fenroy who also topped 1000 yards rushing, including an impressive 5.7 yards per attempt! They will be running behind a veteran offensive line, so they should be at least as good running as they were a year ago. So therein lies the key match-up of this game, the experienced offensive line from La. Lafayette against the inexperienced defensive line from So. Miss. Although the Golden Eagles allowed a respectable 3.9 yards per carry against in 2007, they are not faced with the proposition of stopping one of the nation's elite rushing attacks with only 2 returning defensive linemen with any varsity experience! That experience is stretching it because both senior defensive end Eric Phillips and sophomore Defensive tackle Anthony Gray have amassed just 14 career tackles between them, so obviously the Rajin? Cajuns strength plays right into the veritable weakness of the Golden Eagles squad!
There are enough fundamental match-up advantages to taking the dog here that little else be needed for me to think this is a solid play, however I would be remised if I didn't also tell you about some rather powerful technical numbers that support our selection this Saturday. First, Conference-USA favorites have underperformed against foes from the Sun Belt, as their terrible 1-7 ATS mark indicates. Moreover, the Golden Eagles have only one cover in their last five attempts as home chalk, losing three of those games SU. We discussed at length the new coach, and some might argue that brings excitement to the program, but in the handicapping world that usually spells disaster. Indeed, first year NCAA Head Coaches playing in their first game with a new team are just 77-105-6 ATS (42.3%)! To make matters worse new head coaches laying more than a touchdown in their first game are 20-32 ATS (38%) since 1990. If all of that isn?t enough, we also get to throw in the terrible situational scheduling advantage and I am confident to make this one of our early season wagers. The coaching staff at La. Lafayette realizes they need a signature win to start the season off on the right foot. So. Miss is reloading with an entirely new coaching staff, and beating a team with name recognition that So Miss has may be all they need to keep their jobs another year. The Golden Eagles, meanwhile, are likely not focused on this very beatable opponent, when they have a date with national power Auburn on deck. Most of the So. Miss roster comes from the same recruiting grounds that Auburn feeds from. That means that many of these kids were "passed on" by Auburn, so playing that school is the highlight of their season. The average bettor will jump to play So. Miss based on reputation alone, when in reality all of the line value lies with the dog here. La. Lafayette opened the season last year against South Carolina and hung around all day before losing 28-14. I see no reason this talented La. Lafayette offense cannot score enough points to hang around all day and put a scare into this inexperienced Golden Eagle squad. With a break or two the Rajin' Cajuns just may be able to pull the upset! Take the points with the very dangerous dog on Saturday!
Verdict: So Miss 24, UL Lafayette 21
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON UL-LAFAYETTE +10.5
ETHAN LAW
TROY (0-0) Troy Trojans at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders MIDDLE TENN ST (0-0)
I'm going to keep this analysis rather short and sweet because not much needs to be said about the theory as to why I am playing this particular selection tonight. We are going to look at this early match-up, which is arguably going to be one of the very best and most important games of this opening weekend for both teams. This is a key Sun-belt contest and the one game circled on the Middle Tennessee State calendar because if they lose this one, their hopes of capturing the Sun Belt title will be slim at best. Now most people would say that I'm crazy for simply stating that "if" Middle Tennessee loses the first game of the season, their conference hopes are dashed. But that hypothetical is not without merit. Indeed, if anything this IS the statement game for the Blue Raiders. They have non-conference affairs with Maryland on deck, and then Kentucky, which they almost assuredly know they are going to lose. After that they have two very tough match-ups at Arkansas State and a home game against Florida Atlantic, which unfortunately are the two other best teams in the division. As such, a loss tonight could mean that the Blue Raiders could start the season 0-3 in conference play. Compare that with Troy, who was the very best team in the league "last season" and who has a very difficult turnaround with Florida Atlantic on deck. By the time they play Florida Atlantic they will have been drubbed by Texas and will be eager to avenge that national embarrassment. So at a minimum we know the scheduling spot clearly favors the Blue Raiders.
Moving to the situational and fundamental side of this selection we have a virtual split. Middle Tennessee is playing this game with revenge after last seasons ending 45-7 embarrassment at Troy. That loss was coach Rick Stockstill's worst-ever conference loss with the Blue Raiders and he has had all season to prepare and erase that from his memory. If you go on the Blue Raiders website and read the Press conference, and read the practice reports you can see they mean business tonight. Fundamentally, MTSU should also be an improved team this year (they were solid last season), and are returning their senior quarterback in Joe Craddock who leads an offense that returns seven (7) starters and one that averaged a very respectable 29 points, 123 yards rushing, and 210 passing in conference play. According to the practice reports, Craddock has been airing it out in preseason camp much more than in the previous two years in the offensive system and might have some new wrinkles tonight. Meanwhile, Troy comes into tonight with incredibly high expectations for the season, but those expectations could be too high considering that Troy will be coming in without their top two rushers, top two receivers, and starting quarterback from last year. Moreover, Troy's offense lost their genius with offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, departing and taking his spread offense to Auburn. Despite the fact that Middle Tennessee also has some issues to deal with, there's enough talent on both sides of the ball to come up with a key home win to make a major statement in the Sun Belt title chase. I smell sweet revenge and the fact that we are getting virtually a full touchdown makes this play an absolute no-brainer.
Verdict: Troy 24, Middle Tennessee State 31
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +6.5
SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS
3% OREGON/WASHINGTON UNDER 63
2% IDAHO +27
2% LOUISIANA TECH +7.5
2% MEMPHIS +7.5
2% TEXAS -23.5
1% UL-LAFAYETTE +10.5
1% USC/VIRGINIA UNDER 43