Info Plays
3* on Wisconsin Badgers -26.5
The Wisconsin Badgers return 17 starters this season and are picked to finish second in the Big Ten conference because of it. Akron’s entire defensive backfield will have a new look, considering they lost four of five starters in the secondary from their 3-3-5 scheme last year. Reggie Corner and John Mackey combined for 10 interceptions last year, and both are gone from the Akron secondary this season. That means Wisconsin will be able to move the ball through the air whenever they decide to. Senior Allan Evridge, a Kansas State transfer, is expected to be taking the snaps under center. Evridge will be working behind an offensive line that returns four starters. These four horses up front have combined to make 85 starts between them. P.J. Hill is back at running back after rushing for 2,805 yards and 29 touchdowns in his first two seasons as the Badgers’ starter in the backfield. Now that’s a solid foundation to work with. Wisconsin is 53-34 ATS in their last 87 Saturday home games. The Badgers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games overall. Wisconsin is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Meanwhile, Akron is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road contests. Bet Wisconsin at home.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Florida Gators -35.5
Without Colt Brennan, an experienced wide receiver corps, and the coaching wisdom of June Jones, I expect Florida to put a hurt on the Warriors like they’ve never imagined. Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow leads an offense which averaged 42.5 ppg last season and racked up nearly 460 ypg. It’s not an offense you ever want to face, let alone on the road in your season opener. The Gators are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Head coach Urban Meyer is 52-29 ATS in all lined games in all games he has coached, 28-11 ATS in home lined games in all games he has coached, 24-4 ATS in all non-conference games he has coached, and 10-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season in all games he has coached. Lay the points.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Washington Nationals -113
After winning on the Washington Nationals last night on my premium cards as big underdogs, I’ll take this team Saturday as my free play. Why not? The Nationals have now won 4 games in a row, all coming at home. They’re playing a terrible Braves’ team that has lost 9 of their last 12 games heading into this contest. The Nationals have scored 25 runs in their last four games, putting the bat on the ball better than they have all season. They even had a guy hit for the cycle the other night. The Nationals are one team that will play for pride, playing at the nation’s capitol especially. Jo-Jo Reyes is 3-12 in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Reyes is 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA through his last three starts as well. Also, Reyes gave up 6 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings with his only start against Washington back on July 20th. Jason Bergman is 2-0 in his last two starts against the Braves, and he owns a 3.49 ERA lifetime against Atlanta while facing them seven times throughout his career. Cash in with the Nationals as the favorite as they continue to swing a hot bat.
Big Al McMordie
St Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
Play: St Louis Cardinals
At 7:05pm our complimentary selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Houston Astros. Veteran righthanded starter Braden Looper is a bit of a hard luck pitcher. Despite an excellent ERA of 3.94, and playing for a team that wins about 55% of the time, Looper has only won 12 of his 27 starts this season. Looper has had six quality starts in a row, but only three wins to show for it. Looper gets most of his wins on the road, where he is 7-3 with a 3.66 ERA this season, including a win against this Houston team in his second start of the year. Houston's Brian Moehler has pitched well enough this year (9-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 20 starts) that the Astros decided to offer him a contract extension through the 2009 season. Despite his team showing faith in him in this way, Moehler has been less-than-spectacular lately, only throwing 5 1/3 innings in each of his last three starts while compiling a 1-1 record and 5.06 ERA along with a 1.62 WHIP. The Cards have dominated their division rivals this season, and even with their 3-2 loss on Friday, St. Louis is 10-5 in its last 15 games against the 'Stros. Take the Cards.
Bobby Maxwell
Washington +13½ at OREGON
This is an early-season Pac-10 game for these two as Washington travels to Eugene to take on a Ducks team that was handed a huge dose of bad news just days ago.
Oregon will be without QB Nate Costa underwent knee surgery and they found a torn ACL that will keep him out all season. So getting the nod is Justin Roper who played in three games lasdt season and backing him up is Jeremiah Masoli who was playing in a California community college a season ago.
The Ducks will miss QB Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart and they've got just six starters back on offense.
Meanwhile Washington has the manchild Jake Locker back at AB after a stellar freshman season that saw him run for 986 yards and 13 TDs and throw for 2,062 yards and 14 TDs. The Huskies had a tough season last year but they got a lot of young players some vital experience that will come in handy in this hostile environment today.
Washington has been pointing to this game all offseason and if the Huskies don't turn the ball over, they will be in this one to the end. Remember we don't need them to win, just keep it respectable. Grab the points and play Washington.
2♦ WASHINGTON
N.Y. Mets at FLORIDA -105
Today on the diamond we love the Marlins at home over the Mets.
We're playing one of our favorites tonight in Florida pitcher Ricky Nolasco (13-7, 3.62 ERA) who has looked great this season and is searching for his third consecutive victory.
The Marlins have really struggled to beat the Mets in Florida, losing four of six this season including a wild one on Friday that saw a 2-1 Marlins' lead turn to a 6-2 deficit in the top of the ninth when Carlos Beltran belted a two-out grand slam and then their rally fell short for a 6-4 loss.
We like Nolasco's stuff and he's only allowed two earned runs in his last two starts and struck out 21 in 16.1 innings of work. He's 1-1 against the Mets this season and he knows his team needs him to get a win tonight. Florida is in a must-win situation trailing the Phillies by five games and the Mets by seven.
New York's Mike Pelfrey (13-8, 3.70) is on the mound after throwing two straight complete games, beating Houston and Atlanta. This youngster has been horrible against the Marlins this season, going 0-3 with a 10.66 ERA in three outings, failing to reach the fifth inning in any start.
Florida knows Pelfrey's stuff and they've torched him this season. Nolasco is in a must-win situation and he'll deliver. Play the Marlins in this one.
3♦ FLORIDA
Chris Jordan
TCU -7 at NEW MEXICO
The Horned Frogs are 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS the last three seasons versus New Mexico, dominating the Lobos by an average final of 38-16. And with eight starters back on offense, including quarterback Andy Dalton, this should be another offensive show by the Frogs. With a senior-laden offensive line, he’ll be well protected and should have plenty of time.
Rocky Long’s Lobos has some experience back, but there’s only a combined 10 starters back on both sides of the ball, and with a lack of time served by his offensive linemen, I see TCU spending just as much time in New Mexico’s backfield as the Lobos’ skill-position players.
We’re having to lay a price in this one, but let’s make sure to lay a solid -7 points in this one – don’t get caught by the hook.
3♦ TCU
Sports Gambling Hotline
Mississippi State -8 at LOUISIANA TECH
We are willing to lay the points with a Mississippi State team that is on the come.
Miss State went to a bowl game last season, a first under head coach Sylvester Croom, as they held Central Florida to just 3 points in a 10-3 Liberty Bowl win.
Much of last season's rock-ribbed stop unit returns for State, and that will be definite trouble for Georgia Tech transfer Taylor Bennett who was flustered many a time against quality defenses last year while under center with the Yellow Jackets.
Remember, this is a Miss State defense that was able to go into Lexington last season, and handcuff Andre Woodson and the Wildcats, 31-14.
The Bulldogs have been favored on the road just twice on the road under Croom, and both times ended up in wins, and covers.
Good times have finally returned for Mississippi State, and while their offense is still a bit suspect, it will be the defense that leads them to the win, and cover tonight.
2♦ MISSISSIPPI STATE
Karl Garrett
USC -19½ at VIRGINIA
The G-Man is going to grab the points with the Cavaliers today.
I know this Virginia team may not be able to keep up offensively with the Trojans, but USC does have a couple of negatives working against them, as they are making the cross-country trek with a QB that is not at 100%, and the Trojans do have a game with Ohio State on the 13th they may want to consider as well.
Throw in the fact the Cavs definitely have the defense to keep themselves within earshot, and the Trojans are just 5-11 against the spread when laying double-digits their last 16 games, and the Wahoos definitely have a chance at keeping this one respectable.
Oh, did I mention that Al Groh's team is 12-2 against the spread their last 14 when catching points at home?
Take Virginia to stay inside of this huge impost.
2♦ VIRGINIA
Stephen Nover
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have suffered two tough losses to the Cubs so far in this series. Look for the due factor to kick in here for Philadelphia.
At this huge of a 'dog price, I'm on a rejuvenated Brett Meyers against Ted Lilly.
Since returning from an embarrassing minor league stint, Meyers is 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA. Meyers has a strong history versus the Cubs, going 6-3 with a 2.63 ERA in eight career starts.
The Phillies are in a first place dogfight against the Mets. The Cubs, on the other hand, are on cruise control. The Phillies should be the more motivated club.
Philadelphia is 25-18 this season when facing a left-hander. The southpaw Lilly has a 5.19 career ERA versus the Phillies.
The Phillies have been hurt lately by shoddy bullpen work. But before their last three games, the Philies ranked No. 1 in the National League in bullpen ERA at 3.05.
Steve Janus
One of the most anticipated games in the opening week of College Football, the Clemson Tigers host the Alabama Crimson Tide in an early statement game for both squads. Clemson has a reputation for failing to meet expectations, a label that Tommy Bowden and his Tigers surely want to shake. Alabama has faced some up and down seasons in recent years. The Tide and their faithful are ready to bring Bama back to their glory-days as one of the most feared teams in football. They've started to put some of the pieces together, but I don't think they are ready to make an drastic improvements just yet.
The Clemson offense will be one to watch this year, they posted an impressive 403 yards per game of total offense last year and they have all of the major pieces back in place to have another impressive statistical season. Starting QB and ACC preseason player of the year, Cullen Harper is back for his senior year and looking to improve upon a 2007 season in which he threw for nearly 3,000 yeards and 27 TDs. The Tigers have very talented receivers and two running backs that could both be starters for almost any team in the nation. It will be fun to watch how Bowden utilizes all of his tools throughout this game and the season overall.
Seven starters return to a defense that, while overshadowed by a phenomenal offense, was rock-solid last year. The only real weakness on the defense could be the D-line, which has been hit with a few key injuries. The secondary, however, will compete to be one of the best in the entire nation with four excellent returning starters.
Alabama never really found a groove on offense last season, one of the big reasons why they managed just a 7-6 record. There aren't a lot of stars on this Alabama offense. Wide receiver Julio Jones has been touted as a future impact player, but he's still a year or two away from reaching that potential. Senior QB, John Parker Wilson is servicable, but is very inconsistent. He did throw for over 2,800 yards last year, but those numbers were inflated by the number of attempts he had to throw to reach that mark, shown by his unimpressive 55 percent completion rate in 2007.
The Tide's defense looks to improve on last season's performance, but may find it difficult with injuries to some of their better players. They do return 6 players on this side of the ball, which indicates that they could see some slight improvement over last year's numbers, but don't expect them to be significantly better this season.
There just isn't a match up in this game that works in Alabama's favor. Clemson has a great secondary, so the Tide will have trouble throwing the ball, but Clemson's offense is so much better than Alabama's defense that Alabama is going to be forced to throw the ball more than they might want to. It's a vicious circle and it's exactly what Clemson will be counting on all season long in their quest for a BCS birth.
Prediction: Clemson 47, Alabama 24
Tom Freese
Illinois at Missouri
Missouri is 7-0 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. The difference in this game is be Tiger QB Chase Daniel who completed an amazing 68% of his passes on his way to throwing for 33 touchdowns. The Tigers are making big money for their backers going 10-3 ATS last year and they are 17-8-1 ATS their last 25 lined games. Illinois is 2-4 straight up and 1-5 ATS their last 6 meetings with Missouri and they are 1-6 ATS their last 7 non-conference games. PLAY ON MISSOURI -
Matt Fargo
Northern Illinois at Minnesota Gophers
Prediction: Minnesota Gophers
Minnesota is coming off a miserable 1-11 season but things could have been better. Last season the Gophers had six losses by a touchdown or less, half of which came in the Big Ten and another two by a single point in overtime. Those losses help a team grow and Minnesota is better off for it this season. This will be the second season that the Gophers are familiar with head coach Tim Brewster's Spread Coast offense. A year of familiarity with that is pretty big.
Northern Illinois is coming off a miserable season as well, going 2-10, and has a new head coach in Jerry Kill. Northern Illinois took a big step back as it allowed 30.8 ppg, the most since that 1998 season. As is the case with most big dropoffs, injuries played a big part in the problems that arose last season. The rushing defense finished 111th last year and that will have to get much better for a drastic overall improvement. A lot of starters are back but that does not necessarily mean more wins are on the horizon.
Defensively, Minnesota was the Big Ten's worst, allowing over 100 ypg more than any other conference team at 518.7 ypg. Opponents scored 36.7 ppg against the Gophers while scoring over 40 points six times. To fix the defense, Brewster brought in Ted Roof, recently fired as Duke's head coach. Roof is known for his defensive success at Georgia Tech and should be able to help the unit right away. It can only get better and it really has no where else to go.
Although Minnesota runs the same offense from last year, little is known about the defense and what schemes the Gophers will use and Kill listed that as his major concern for Saturday. The Huskies bring back eight starters on offense and they have the ability to be very good but they averaged only 19.1 ppg which was 109th in the country. Facing a swiss cheese defense is one thing but this is a defense from the Big Ten and one that comes in with a brand new attack.
The Gophers have nine returning starters on offense, including quarterback Adam Weber, who led the offense in rushing and passing last year. Minnesota finished 48th in total offense which was outstanding considering it was the first year the new offense was in place. The Gophers scored 31 or more points six times and they should have no problem moving the ball against the Huskies. This number may seem big but after losing to a MAC team in the opener last year, Minnesota will come into to this one much more focused. Play Minnesota Golden Gophers 1.5 Units
Ross Benjamin
Northern Illinois @ Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota –8.5
I look for the Gophers to be much improved in 2008. The difference in this game will be the Gopher quarterback Adam Webber a poor man’s version of Tim Tebow. Webber started all 12 games as a frosh in 2007. He threw for close to 2900 yards, threw for 24 touchdowns, and rushed for over 700 yards. The experience factor for the Huskies has been damaged a bit as their projected starter Dan Nicholson is not 100% healthy creating a bit of instability at the position. Minnesota needs to win these types of games at home to get the program back on track after an embarrassing 2007 season. They will come up big in this one with a huge effort.
Any non-conference home favorite of 7.5 or more that is playing in their season opener, has won 5 or less of their last 22 games and won 5 or less games last season is 18-2-1 ATS since 1980. Play on Minnesota minus the points as my college football free selection of the day.
INDIANCOWBOY COMP
Utah +3
Gallsy, I know. But, I believe in my research and it says that Utah will win this game Outright. Note, I called Chicago Outright yesterday on the road at Washington and nothing is different here. I believe in teams that win outright and taking the points with teams that can win outright and given the research, the massive amount of starters returning, the most from the Mountain West and how young this Michigan team is, Rich Rodriguez's first game or not, it is not a good situation for these baby Wolverines imo. Utah for the Outright win.
Research that went with this play:
All I'm saying is watch out, this is a game that Utah could very well win outright similar to the Chicago Sky yesterday. Remember, this Utah team is returning the most amount of players from the Mountain West and should compete for the Mountain West title. This team returns 17 players, 8 on offense, 7 on defense and 2 on special teams. The spread in this ballgame opened up at 7 and has been brought down steadily down to -3. I know it is Rich Rodriguez's first game and all but I still believe Utah with as many seniors as they bring down for this game and with the experience they have, could very well win this game outright. Michigan is very, very young. This is a game that is likely to go Utah and the Over.
Jeff Benton
The last time we saw the Jayhawks, they were putting the finishing touches on a storybook 12-1 season with a 24-21 upset victory over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Not only did the Jayhawks win 12 of their 13 games, but they cashed in 11 of 12 lined contests; in fact, every game they won that had a line posted, they covered! That includes a 55-3 destruction of Florida International as a 35-point home favorite last September.
That’s not exactly news, of course, as no team has fattened up on cupcakes like Kansas in recent years. Over the last two seasons alone, in addition to the Florida International rout, the Jayhawks have notched the following blowout wins over inferior competition: 49-18 over Northwestern State (non-lined game), 52-7 over Central Michigan (7½-point favorite), 62-0 over Southeastern Louisiana (non-lined), 45-13 over Toledo (25½-point favorite).
Well, I can’t imagine that, with standout quarterback Todd Reesing (3,486 passing yards, 33 TDs, 7 TDs) back, the Jayhawk offense that put up 41 ppg last year won’t shred Florida International once again – the same Florida International that finished 1-11 last year while allowing 39 points per game (while scoring just 15).
Bottom line: Kansas is a notorious bully that pushes around inferior foes – seven of their wins last year were by 30 points or more – and I don’t see this veteran team showing any mercy this year, either.
4♦ KANSAS