Advantage Plays
Utah +3.5 over Michigan
Don't think that Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham and his Utes haven't seen anything that Rich Rodriguez and the Wolverines can throw at them, since Michigan runs the offense that the Utes have been running for far longer and with a much deeper skill set to do so, as Rodriguez has been forced to fit square pegs in round holes with the remnants of Lloyd Carr's pro set offensive recruits. Experienced backup QB Ryan Mallett has transferred and Chad Henne, Jake Long, Mario Manningham, Arrington and Mike Hart are in the NFL, among other senior graduates that have thinned a team that also lost several transfers. Rodriguez suffered through a similar difficult first year at West Virginia before getting the recruits that could fit his system. He had fourteen returning starters from a bowl team the year prior and they dropped down to 3-8 while they implemented the new attack, also losing 5% of the offensive scoring output at the same time. This offensive attack is complex and it takes a while to relearn the blocking and quarterback reads, and he has none of the players suited for the scheme as we speak.
Meanwhile, Utah has it's best and deepest team in the years since Urban Meyer ran off to Florida, and this was the offense he designed. A 5th year senior at quarterback will be running the show and he was putting up more great numbers last year before going down with injury. He brings top level running backs in what is primarily a run-option based attack and four returning offensive linemen that carry in excess of 310 pounds per man, so they will not be getting pushed around in the trenches. Last year's Wolverine defense was scorched by the spread in games with Appalachian State, Florida and Oregon, and while they have another year under their belts they now have another new defense to learn. Utah returns fourteen starters from a season that had them reeling off seven straight wins once they got healthy again and ended only with a tough loss to BYU in the finale. Utah could be this year's Hawaii or Boise State, getting to a BCS bowl. Last year's injuries cost the Utes wins, but their two-deep roster gained great game experience while the freshmen and sophomores took extended playing time. I am not certain that this line isn't based on Rodriguez' recent success at WVU and the "Michigan Mystique" with a big name program facing a non-BCS school, but the on-field coaching, talent, depth and experience all lie with the visitor from the Mountain West.
Utah 23, Michigan 16
Big AL
At 7 pm (time change), our selection is on the Memphis Tigers plus the points over the Ole Miss Rebels.
This will be the fifth straight year that these two rivals have opened up their seasons against each other. Last year, Tommy West's Tigers lost by 2-points, 23-21, at home vs. Mississippi, and that game was representative of this series, which has seen the last four years' games all decided by seven points or less. There will be one change on the Mississippi sideline for this game, however, and that will be new coach Houston Nutt, who replaces Ed Orgeron, who compiled a 10-25 record for the Rebels. Last year, Mississippi's offense was dreadful, and ranked 104th in scoring, 107th in turnover margin, and 84th in rushing. Given its lackluster performance in 2007, this pointspread is too high, especially for the opening game of the season, and one that is against a foe that made a Bowl game last year. Memphis is a solid 22-10 ATS since 1980 as revenging road dogs of more than 3 points vs. non-conference opposition, and the Tigers also fall into a revenge system of mine that's 38-13 ATS since 1980. College Football Game of the Month on Memphis.
At 12:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Hawaii.
This will be a tough season for the Rainbows. Not only did star quarterback Colt Brennan graduate (he was drafted by the Washington Redskins), but head coach June Jones took his run-and-shoot offense, and bolted for SMU (perhaps Jones knew this would be a difficult year). So the Rainbows will be led by new head coach Greg McMackin and hand the quarterback duties over to sophomore Brent Rausch, who has no playing experience at Hawaii. The Rainbows last game was also against an SEC opponent -- Georgia in the Sugar Bowl -- and the Rainbows were completely outclassed in a 41-10 drubbing. And that was with Brennan and Jones! I don't think they'll be any better in "The Swamp" on Saturday afternoon. Florida has won 18 straight openers, and 38 of its last 39 openers at Florida Field. With reigning Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow at quarterback, the 5th-ranked Gators will no doubt be explosive on offense. Last season, Florida averaged 42.5 ppg (third best in NCAA), as Tebow threw for 3,286 yards and 32 touchdowns while running for 895 yards and 23 touchdowns! So coach Urban Meyer knows his offense will be there, but Florida will also be improved this season on defense, as it returns eight starters, including Brandon Spikes, a first-team All-SEC linebacker last year (2nd in SEC with 131 tackles). Finally, no coach is better against the spread vs. non-conference foes than Meyer. In his tenures at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida, Meyer's teams are 24-4 ATS vs. non-conference opposition, including 18-0 SU and 14-1, 93% ATS at home (with three non-lined games). And the only ATS loss was by just five points! Lay the wood with the Gators!
At 7:10pm our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves.
If the Nationals could play the entire season against the Braves, they might just win the NL East Division and be headed for the postseason. As bad as Washington is this season (50-85 and the worst team in the National League), with its victory in the first game of this series on Friday it is now 8-4 in 2008 against this Braves team. The Nats seem to have Atlanta's number this season, as does just about every team that plays them at home.Atlanta has a 23-44 record away from Turner Field after Friday's 7-3 pasting at the hands of this Washington squad. Although the Nats are not going anywhere this season, they are getting healthy and finally getting some decent offensive production from the likes of Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, and Ryan Zimmerman. Incredibly, the Nats have now won four straight games, including a three-game sweep at home over the NL West-contending Dodgers. A lot of people scratched their head when the Nats dealt Jon Rauch to the Diamondbacks for an unknown 2B prospect right before the All-Star Break, but that move does not seem to have hurt the Nats' bullpen one bit. 26-year-old Joel Hanrahan has moved right into the closer's position and has not missed a beat, and the rest of the Nationals' relief squad has performed much better than average. Atlanta is now 4-14 in their last 18 games. NL East Game of the Month on the Nationals.
BOB BALFE
Oklahoma State/Washington State Under 66
Oklahoma State has a good QB in Zac Robinson, but he will be without his best RB and WR from a year ago. Washington State starts this season with a new coach and a QB with minimal experience. The Huskies were horrible on defense last year, but have a solid LB core this season and should be much improved. This game is at a neutral site in Seattle. 66 points will be a lot to score in an opening game. Take the Under.
"Diamond in the ruff play"
Louisiana Tech +8 over Mississippi State
This is a huge game for Tech as it is a primetime ESPN Game hosting a SEC team for this first time. This team has a bigtime ability QB Taylor Bennett and coach Derek Dooley is determined to put this school on the map. Mississippi State has some injuries at O-Line and will be without first-team All-SEC free safety Derek Pegues. The State offense has never been that good so if Bennett can get on a roll this team has a chance at winning outright. This line opened at 9.5 and now is dropping even with the public betting heavy on Miss State. Take Tech with an option small play on the Moneyline.
Alabama +4.5 over Clemson
Alabama lost all of their games last year by a touchdown or less. Playing in close games builds a strong team and they will be more experienced this year. Clemson has two great RB's which some think will be the top duo in the nation. I have to disagree with that due to the fact last year their numbers decreased in productivity from 2006 and this season they will have a brand new offensive line. Alabama is going to put up points with a offense from last year still in tact and a good QB. Clemson has lost their top four linebackers from last year which should allow Bama to air it out on run the ball with ease. Take Alabama.
Memphis/Mississippi Over 54
Memphis should return a good squad this year with 16 returning starters. The Tigers would love nothing more than too beat Ole Miss as there are many seniors who are 0-3 against them in their careers. Memphis runs a spread offense which is pretty good and has a lot of work to do on defense as last year they were pretty bad. Ole Miss is excited about their new head coach Houston Nutt and excited about Texas transfer Jevan Snead at quarterback. This offense has experience and will play well this year. Mississippi has a few injuries on the D-Line which should allow Memphis to run the ball well. Both teams should move the ball at will today on offense. Look for this game to go Over the total.
Arizona/Idaho Over 62
Arizona returns ten offensive starters from a pass happy offense which played great last year. Their first test of the year is Idaho whom may be the worst defense I have ever seen. When Idaho is on offense they will have the luxury of returning all eleven starters against a AZ team with only three starters back and a brand new offensive line. Arizona is going to score at will, but I do think Idaho puts up a good number of points sending this way over the total. Take the Over.
Major League Baseball
Phillies +130 over Cubs
Myers/Lilly
THE BOOKIE PAYS YOU - ( warning, this could be hazardous to your bankroll ) 😮
========================================================
The Red Sox get it done easily last night give us a much needed win to carry
us into the first Saturday of COLLEGE FOOTBALL! I'm not going to elaborate
much on this release..... Take Wisconsin minus the 26.5pts. This Badger team
should have NO problem beating Akron by at least our touchdowns. Akron is
3-9 against the spread in their last twelve road games, and NONE of those
where against a foe as formidable as Wisconsin. While the Badgers are
STACKED... and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings with
MAC teams! Bottom Line... Wisconsin ALL THE WAY!!!**** Thanks, and
GOOD LUCK! By the way... Look for me on ESPN tonight, I'll be at the BIG
GAME! Georgia Dome... Clemson vs. Alabama.
========================================================
Scott Delaney
80 Dime Pick
Illinois / Missouri
Pick: Illinois +9
3Daily Winners
No Illinois vs. Minnesota U
Play: Point Spread: -7.5
Normally would love a team like Northern Illinois in this spot, 20 returning starters, against a team from BCS conference who figures to be near the cellar. However, the Huskies have new coach in Jerry Kill and we have have already seen what has happened to Baylor and SMU with their new leaders. NIU is usually pretty solid with 7-3 ATS record against the Big Ten, with one big difference, they are almost always catching 10 or more points. Minnesota was 1-11 last year, but have 15 starters back with more experience. The Golden Gophers are 12-1 and 9-3 ATS in first home game and 22-13 ATS in non-conference action. If Northern Ilinois was at original +10.5, might have been worth a look, at this number, the Gophers are Golden.
Charlies Sports
Va Tech / East Carolina Over 45 (500*)
Akron +27 (30*)
Northwestern -11½ (20*)
Florida -34½ (20*)
Ohio +13 (10*)
Bowling Green +14 (10*) free play
Cajun-Sports
CFB Executive Club
3 STAR SELECTION
East Carolina +9½ over Virginia Tech (@ CHARLOTTE, NC)
The Hokies are off a season in which they captured the ACC title and a BCS Bowl invite, and now open their 2008 season against a Pirates crew off an upset victory over Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl.
Frank Beamer's Va Tech team won 11 games last season, but ended with a sour note, falling to Kansas in the Orange Bowl. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz's were a pleasant surprise, winning eight games and finishing second in Conference USA's East Division. Now, off their bowl victory, there is plenty of reason for optimism in Greenville this season, as the Pirates are predicted to vie for the conference crown once again.
Tech has won the six straight in this series; however, it was a close 17-7 game in last year's season-opener, in which East Carolina covered the spread by 17+ points. Despite the loss, the Pirates were not intimidated by the Hokies, even in enemy territory, and certainly won’t be here in a neutral site.
Offensively, the Hokies were nothing special in 2007, and it may take them awhile to get on track in 2008. Senior Sean Glennon is back at the quarterback position, but he will be short on weapons. There is uncertainty in the receiving corps, where Tech must replace its top four pass catchers. Beamer is likely to give a few youngsters a crack at producing on the ground as well, with veteran Branden Ore being dismissed from the team in the spring.
The Hokie defense returns just four starters from a year ago, although Beamer usually gets the most out of this unit. It is in the front seven where Tech will need to fill the most holes, including the loss of standout LBs Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall and rush end Chris Ellis.
The Pirates will have senior Patrick Pinkney at QB, although we expect to see talented junior Rob Kass as well. Tailback Chris Johnson was sensational for the Pirates last season, combining for 2,960 all-purpose years, but has now taken his talents to the NFL. East Caroline will plug in Brandon Simmons and spread the ball around to a wide receiver corps that has a bevy of good athletes, highlighted by the return of Jamar Bryant.
The Pirates loved to plunder the opponents last season, leading the conference with 31 takeaways and with nine starters back in the fold, this unit figures to be among the best in the league yet again.
This game should be similar to last year, in which East Carolina made a game of it. Skip Holtz is proving himself to be a good college football coach, following in his dad’s footsteps. He always has his team ready to go, especially in the role of dog. His Pirates have not only covered the number the last 4 times in that role, but have won the games outright. ECU is also 7-0 ATS when playing with revenge for a SU loss & ATS win, and not an underdog of more than 24 points.
The win in Hawaii last year for the Pirates was a tremendous boost for this program and that should carry over here, as after winning a Bowl Game as a double-digit underdog, teams at the right price have started the following season with a strong showing. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:
In Game 1, play ON a team (not a favorite of more than 19 points) off a Bowl Game SU win as an underdog of 10+ points last season. Since at least 1982, these confident teams are a perfect 11-0 ATS, beating the spread by more than a dozen points a game.
We expect East Carolina to give the Hokies fits once again and see this game decided by a FG for a comfortable cover by the Pirates.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VIRGINIA TECH 27 EAST CAROLINA 24
4 STAR SELECTION
WYOMING -11 over Ohio
The Cowboys open the 2008 campaign with a home bout against the Bobcats in a non-conference tilt. Head coach Joe Glenn’s seat is getting a little warm in Wyoming after 4 seasons without a bowl game, so he’ll have his Cowboys ready to rope and ride on Saturday to get an easy “W”.
As for Ohio, they are off a 6-6 season, including a narrow 34-33 home loss to Wyoming.
Now, coach Frank Solich has a major issue on his hands as he sets out on another season of Ohio football, as Kalvin McRae who ended up with just under 4,400 yards for his career is gone. As recently as last week the coaches were still undecided on who would be the featured back in the offense, suffering through some injuries and lackluster play.
The offense for the Bobcats was rather mediocre last year as it was, while the defense wasn’t any better. Now, they have to deal with the loss of Todd Koenig, the team's top tackler.
Junior college transfer Dax Crum is the new top gun for Glenn at Wyoming. Crum is just a sophomore, but having been named an honorable mention All-American and one of the top offensive players in the NJCAA is certainly nothing to sneeze at. The running game should be solid again with running backs Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon who combined for 1500 yards last year, providing one of the most punishing one-two punches in the league.
Junior John Fletcher was a huge part of a run defense that ranked 27th in the nation last year with a mere 123 ypg allowed as he ranked among the league's top linemen in terms of tackles with 60. He returns for the Cowboys, as do 6 more starters on defense.
Some may think the Bobcats will have a “revenge” edge here as falling short at home to Wyoming last season; however, an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM shows just the opposite. It states:
In Game 1, play AGAINST an underdog of 4½-14½ points seeking revenge for a SU loss scoring 25+ points.
For 20 seasons, these teams have gone 0-13 SU & ATS, failing to cover by more than 15 ppg! The last 2 qualifying teams and 3 of the last 4 were MAC teams.
We also note that the Bobcats are little more than pussy cats when it comes to avenging a loss. Specifically, they are a pathetic 0-12 SU (-23.6 ppg) & 0-12 ATS (-10.4 ppg) as a road underdog seeking revenge for a home SU loss (not as a favorite of more than 5 points). Meanwhile, Wyoming is 6-0 ATS (+12.5 ppg) at home in non-conference games when not favored by more than 24 points.
We see plenty of value with the Cowboys and jump on their bandwagon here.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WYOMING 34 OHIO 13
5 STAR SELECTION
USC -19 over VIRGINIA
The mighty Trojans begin their quest for another national title this weekend, as they travel to take on the Cavaliers.
Pete Carroll's crew is once again the favorite to win the Pac-10 and contend for the national championship after going 11-2 overall in 2007 and capping the campaign with a 49-17 destruction of Illinois in the Rose Bowl.
The Cavaliers also had a highly successful 2007 campaign, winning nine games overall and placing second in the ACC's Coastal Division with a 6-2 mark; however, there are some dark clouds on the horizon for Al Groh and the program.
As usual, USC was an offensive juggernaut last season and although there are holes to fill in 2008, there is seemingly a revolving door of talent at the school and the cupboard is never bare. Taking over under center should be Mark Sanchez, despite coming off a dislocated his left kneecap during practice on August 8th. The Trojans are very deep in the backfield with the likes of Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight, and C.J. Gable. Patrick Turner is a huge target at and could emerge as a top receiving threat, while big things are also expected from junior Videl Hazelton and sophomore Damian Williams. The Trojans had a devastating defensive unit last season, and even bigger things are expected from the unit in 2008.
The Cavaliers were merely average in terms of offensive production in 2007 and gone is QB Jameel Sewell. True freshman Peter Lalich got a taste of action in 2007 and is the only returning signal-caller who got any snaps last season. He will battle senior Scott Deke and sophomore Marc Verica for the starting nod, and whoever goes here will be drowning in sea of Trojan red.
Virginia’s ground game should be a strength of the offense with the return of senior Cedric Peerman; however, he’s coming off an injury and is likely to be smothered by USC. Once the Trojans take a commanding lead, the Cavs will have to abandon the run and become sitting ducks. Virginia’s defense played well last year, allowing 20 ppp; however, gone is All-American Chris Long up front and he will be impossible to replace.
Last year, the Cavaliers had a lot of things go their way, winning a national record five games by two points or less. That doesn't seem likely this time around, as Coach Groh will have his hands full just being competitive week in and week out. His team is simply overmatched in this game and will be doing well just to score.
USC will be ready to come out strong here, as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+17.8 ppg) in first true road of the season under Pete Carroll.
Some may point to the Trojans next game, and figure they’ll be looking ahead to hosting Ohio State; however, they have a week off following the trip to Virginia, so they should be completely 100% focused on the task at hand. In fact, double-digit road favorites coming off a solid year and starting the season with extended rest following their first game have been tremendous as revealed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
In Game 1, play ON a Saturday road favorite of more than 10 points before 7+ days rest, home in its next game and off 5+ SU wins last season.
Since 1998 these teams are 10-0 SU & ATS, beating the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. The last qualifying team was none other than USC when the Trojans traveled to Hawaii and blew up the Warriors, 63-17, covering an enormous 36-point spread.
Another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM shows that the Trojans should continue their momentum from their Rose Bowl romp. It advises:
In Game 1, play ON a BCS Conference team off scoring 45+ points in its last game of the previous season vs. a BCS Conference opponent.
Just since 2003, these teams are 10-0 ATS, blistering the spread by more than 15 ppg on average. The Trojans are a bit under the radar, not being the preseason #1, so we look for them to make a statement here with a blowout win over the Cavaliers
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: USC 35 VIRGINIA 9
4 STAR SELECTION
Michigan State +4 ½ over CALIFORNIA
It’s the Big Ten vs. the Pac 10 Saturday night, in what should be a great game, as the Spartans travel to take on the Golden Bears.
Michigan State is coming off their first winning season since 2003, as last season they won their last two regular season games to earn a bowl bid.
As for California, they posted their sixth straight winning season last year due to a Bowl win over Air Force, finishing with a 7-6 ledger.
The Spartans used a two-headed running attack last season, and that led to nearly 200 rushing yards per contest. Javon Ringer returns for Michigan State, giving the Spartans their home run threat out of the backfield. Brian Hoyer will once again be under center for the Spartans, looking to improve on his numbers from last year.
For the Bears, QB Nate Longshore struggled at times and was eventually hurt, and his absence opened the door for Kevin Riley, who performed well while under center. After a long battle in the spring, Riley was given the nod to start, and will be under center in the opener. He will need plenty of help, as the top four receivers from a year ago are gone. Another issue will be the ground attack, which will have to replace Justin Forsett, who has moved on to the NFL.
This should be one of the more exciting games in the first week of the season, and we like Dantonio here to keep his team in this game and give them a chance to pull out a late win. Michigan State is a strong 6-0-1 ATS as an underdog since late 2006, including 5-0-1 ATS under Dantonio.
These teams met a few years ago, when the Bears upset the Spartans on the road, so Michigan State will have a little payback in mind. They are also 4-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) seeking revenge for a home SU loss, while Cal is an ugly 0-9 ATS (-15.8) in the Regular Season when not getting more than 7 points vs. an opponent playing with revenge.
An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM demonstrates that non-conference road teams have been solid when looking to start the season by avenging a loss as a big favorite. It states:
In Game 1, play on a non-conference road team (not an underdog of more than 17 points) seeking revenge for a SU loss as a favorite of more than 8 points in the last matchup vs. an opponent not played in opponent’s final contest of last year. This has been perfect situation for 2 decades, going 11-0 ATS, covering the spread by 12 ppg.
Following this contest, Cal has a game at Washington State, which might be where their focus is, as they are 0-5 ATS (-9.5 ppg) in non-conference home games before a conference game. The Bears are also active for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that reveals with a conference road game coming up, teams off a Bowl victory have not been motivated enough to cover the spread in their season opener. It advises:
In Game 1, play AGAINST a home team off a Bowl Game SU win in its last contest the previous season and before a conference road game vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 13+ points.
Since 1990, these teams are 0-11-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 11 ppg on average.
The Spartans are an under-rated team and should surprise the Bears with a fierce fight.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MICHIGAN STATE 28 CALIFORNIA 27
3 STAR SELECTION
Missouri -8 ½ over Illinois (@ ST, LOUIS, MO)
A couple of preseason Top 20 teams meet in St. Louis on Saturday, as the sixth-ranked Tigers of the Big 12 Conference battle the 20th-ranked Fighting Illini of the Big Ten. Both teams are coming off surprising seasons, as Ron Zook turned the Illinois around and took his team to the Rose Bowl, while Missouri won the Big 12 North Division title and went 12-2, with Oklahoma being the only team to defeat them on the season.
For Illinois, junior quarterback Juice Williams is the spark plug of the offense. He’s always been a great runner, and last year picked up his passing numbers. This year, Zook and his staff are hoping for further growth from their most dynamic player, but it won't be easy, as Williams will have to do so without the services of RB stud Rashard Mendenhall, who was scooped up in the first round of the NFL draft after garnering Big Ten MVP honors. The biggest question for the offense heading into this opener is who, if anyone, is capable of being even half the player that Mendenhall was for the Illini.
The Tigers finished last season ranked in the top-10 in three major offensive categories, as scored 40 ppg behind nearly 500 yards per game. The return of QB Chase Daniel, receivers Tommy Saunders and Jeremy Maclin along with three offensive linemen means there is likely more of the same on tap this fall.
Illinois was brought back to earth by USC in the Rose Bowl, and that’s likely to continue with too much weight on Juice Williams. Teams that got destroyed in a Bowl Game have done very poorly as a Game 1 underdog, as revealed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
In Game 1, play AGAINST an underdog of 2-21½ points off a Bowl Game SU loss of 28+ points last season vs. an opponent not off a Bowl Game SU loss of 14+ points in its last game.
Going all the way back to 1982, these teams are a horrible 0-13 SU & ATS.
We also note that Missouri has simply had the Illini’s number, especially when not having to play on the Illinois home field. The Illini are 0-7 SU & ATS vs. the Tigers away from home. Missouri figures to build on their tremendous season last year, and we look for them start this season where they left last year, with a resounding SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MISSOURI 34 ILLINOIS 17
Cajun-Sports
CFB Executive Club
5 STAR SELECTION
OREGON -13½ OVER Washington
Pac-10 rivals face off Saturday night when the Ducks host the Huskies. Since taking over at the helm for Washington, head coach Ty Willingham has not enjoyed much success, leading the team to a miserable 12-35 ledger. This year doesn’t look to hold much more promise, placing Ty squarely on the hot seat.
As for Oregon, it opened last season with eight wins in the first nine games, but the final three regular season contests resulted in defeat after QB Dennis Dixon went down. Despite the late collapse, the Ducks recovered their “mojo” at the Sun Bowl and crushed South Florida in that game by a 56-21 final. The Ducks did lose some significant talent from that club, but a high level of talent remains on the roster, accounting for their Top 25 ranking.
The Huskies' offense will revolve around their very talented and versatile quarterback Jake Locker, although he comes in here nursing a sore hamstring. He is still raw, as he only completed 47.5 percent of his throws and had just 14 pass TDs against 15 interceptions. He did also rush for nearly 1000 yards and 13 scores, making him a tremendous dual threat entering this season, but it remains to be seen how much he will be able to do on the ground due to his injury. He won’t have many familiar faces around, as the wide receiver corps was depleted, and RB Louis Rankin has to be replaced after becoming the first 1,000-yard rusher at Washington since 1997. Sophomore Brandon Johnson was expected to be the main back for the Huskies, but he is suffering from a calf injury that leaves his status for this opener questionable.
Over the past few seasons, the Huskies have been atrocious defensively, and while the addition of new defensive coordinator in Ed Donatell brings some hope, expectations should not be great, as it will take time to learn the new system.
The quarterback position is definitely the main issue for coach Oregon’s Bellotti as he enters the 2008 season. Nathan Costa figured to take over the starting job, but he will miss much, if not all, of the season with a knee injury. As a result, redshirt sophomore Justin Roper will lead the offense. He should be able to step in here and do the job, as he led the team to the crushing defeat of South Florida in the Sun Bowl. He played well in the team's final scrimmage last Friday and has been around the program long enough to get a strong command of the offense. Roper will have the luxury of throwing to Jaison Williams, one of the most dangerous wideouts in the Pac-10.
Seven starters return on the defensive side of the ball for Oregon, giving the Ducks a veteran unit that should improve on last year's numbers.
Laying nearly 2 TDs here in a conference rivalry game is reason for cause; however, we have a pile of numbers to support Oregon covering the spread. When they win, they usually win big, as they are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 SU victories. They have also dominated this series, going 4-0 SU & ATS vs. the Huskies since 2004. The Ducks have done well in these early conference clashes, going superb 4-0 SU (+21.8 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) in Game 1 conference home games since 1989.
Oregon also qualifies for some our NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS. Showing that teams can build off an explosive Bowl Game showing, we have a system that states:
In Game 1, play ON a BCS Conference team off scoring 45+ points in its last game of the previous season vs. a BCS Conference opponent. Just since 2003, these teams are 10-0 ATS, blistering the spread by more than 15 ppg on average.
Playing at home against a conference foe they have dominated of late has been a great way to start the season for favorite, as another POWER SYSTEMS reveals with:
In Game 1, play ON a non-Thursday conference home favorite of less than 35 points vs. an opponent seeking revenge for SU losses in the last 3 matchups. Since 1993, these teams are 8-0 SU & ATS, again covering by more than 15 points on average. We note that the last team to qualify for this spot was these same Ducks. To start the 2006 season, Oregon hosted Stanford, and simply covered the 11’-point spread by 26’ points with a 48-10 romp.
The Huskies did put some points on the board against Oregon last year, which may give them some false hope. As it turns out, conference road teams have not been up to the task of starting the season seeking to avenge a defeat in which they put a fair amount of points. We have yet another POWER SYSTEM that advises:
In Game 1, play AGAINST a conference road team (not an underdog of more than 16 points) seeking revenge for a SU loss, scoring 25+ points.
Going back 20+ seasons, this system is a perfect 9-0 SU & ATS. The “revenge” team have failed to cover the spread by more than 17 points a game on average! When one team dominates a conference foe, there is little revenge motivation in their favor. The edge goes to the team doing the dominating, and we look for the Ducks to put the hammer down here and whip the Huskies for a SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OREGON 38 WASHINGTON 17
BEN BURNS
I'm laying the points with CALIFORNIA. I successfully played against the Bears in their home opener two years ago. Listed as small favorites, they traveled to Tennessee and got crushed by the Volunteers. Last year, I successfully played ON the Bears in their opener. Once again, they faced the Vols. However, this time the game was played here in Berkeley and this time it was the revenge-minded Bears who won by double-digits. Note that while the Bears have played a top tier team in their opener each of the past two years, the Spartans have hosted the likes of UAB, Idaho and Kent State in their opener in each of the past three seasons, laying more than three touchdowns in each of those games. In other words, traveling to the West Coast to take on a solid Pac 10 program represents a major step up in class for a team used to easing its way into Big 10 play. Note that the Spartans weren't planning on flying out here until Friday and were planning on staying on Eastern Time, rather than going early and trying to adjust. Both teams have suffered quite a few losses from last year. The Spartans' losses are arguably bigger though, as they are now without WR Devin Thomas, RB Jehuu Caulcrick, TE Kellen Davis and DE Jonal Saint-Dic, all four of whom were integral parts of last year's squad. They do bring back QB Brian Hoyer and he should have another solid season. However, it may take some time to adjust to not having his favorite targets. He'll face an experienced Cal defense (8 starters) while dealing with a fired up Bears team looking to make amends after underachieving last year. The Bears are also inexperienced on offense and as a result, expectations aren't as high as they have been in recent seasons. However, they have more weapons than most people think and Coach Tedford has always gotten the most out of his teams, when flying under the radar. Additionally, although we could easily see some of both, I really like the decision to go with the more athletic Kevin Riley over the more experienced Nate Longshore, as the starting QB. The Bears are 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were favored by less than eight points. They're also 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the last four times that they faced a team from the Big-10. On the other hand, the Spartans are 0-5 ATS the last five times they faced a team from the Pac-10, including a 46-22 loss vs. the Bears when these teams last met in 2002. With the home crowd behind them, look for the Bears to get the season started with a important win and cover. *TV GOM
I'm laying the points with NORTHWESTERN. The Wildcats were bowl eligible with six wins last season but didn't make it to a bowl. This year's team is loaded with returning starters and should be Pat Fitzgerald's best group yet. Having missed out on the postseason last year, Fitzgerald and co. know the importance of getting off to a strong start this year and winning all their non-conference home games. Note that the Wildcats lost an early home game vs. Duke last year, which ultimately proved extremely costly. I expect them to have learned from that experience and for them to take care of their winnable games this year. Off another awful season, Syracuse certainly fits the bill. Note that the Wildcats are 3-1 SU/ATS their last four August games. During the same stretch, the Orange were 0-3 SU/ATS in their August games. The Orange return a decent number of starters and should be better this season. That's not really saying a whole lot though, as they were 2-10 last year and were terrible on both sides of the ball. The offense managed just 16.4 points per game on the strength of a mere 62.8 yards rushing. The defense was arguably even worse, allowing 34.8 points per game and 468.8 total yards per game. Given last year's record and his 3-year record of 7-28, it's somewhat surprising that the Orange haven't fired coach Greg Robinson. They havent though and even with a more experienced team, it figures to be another long year. The Wildcats have the offense to exploit the porous Orange defense. Quarterback C.J. Bacher returns. Bacher completed 61 percent of his passes for 3,656 yards and 19 touchdowns last year and he's got all his main weapons back. He's also got a new offensive coordinator in Mick McCall. Note that McCall was Bowling Green's offensive coordinator last year and the Falcons went from 19.5 points in 2006 to 30.2 in 2007. He also has given the Wildcats' offense a new no-huddle attack, which should prove particularly difficult to defend for a team playing it's first game. The Northwestern defense also has a new coordinator in Mike Hankwitz. The experienced Hankwitz has worked with several big name programs, inlcuding Wisconsin the past two seasons, and has instituted an "attack first style." Coach Fitgerald had this to say: "He brought an attitude that we're going to be a good defense. We've been improving since he's been aboard. We're going to attack people. We're going to dictate what we want to do." Asked on his team's goal for the season, Fitzgerald said: "What's in our control is to win a bowl game. I think that's a great expectation." Look for them to take the first step to achieving that goal, beginning the season with a double-digit victory.
HUGE UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH
I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. This is one of the more intriguing opening week matchups as it features a pair of ranked teams, both of which have lofty expectations. The Tigers were one of the best teams in the country and last season and they should be very good once again. That being said, the Illini are no slouches either! Illinois brings 13 starters back from last season's 9-win team, most importantly star quarterback Juice Williams. In his first year, Williams dazzled defenses with his feet. Last year, in addition to his 755 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, Williams also passed for another 1,743 yards and 13 scores, completing a healthy 57 percent of his attempts. He should be even better this season. However, it's the Illinois defensive line which everyone is raving about and which figures to be the Illini's best unit since the early 90s. Not only do the Illini have excellent talent at the defensive line position but they've also got plenty of depth. This will help to allow them to keep subbing in fresh pass rushers throughout the game. While Tigers' Chase Daniel is bound to have another monster season, I expect him to find the going tougher than he did here in St. Louis last season. The bottom line is that while I have a great deal of respect for what Missouri brings to the table, I also think Illinois is a very good team and feel that this line is too high. You may recall last year's game as turned out to be a thriller. The Tigers jumped off to a big early lead. Illinois fought all the way back from 24 points down with six minutes to go in the third quarter though and the Tigers needed an interception at the 1-yard-line with 51 seconds left in the game to preserve the victory. Williams and the Illini have learned a lot about themselves since that time, beating the likes of Penn State, Wisconsin and #1 Ohio State, on the road no less. The last two games in this rivalry, both played here at St. Louis, were both decided by a touchdown or less. While they failed to cover last year's meeting by a point, this year's line is a fair bit higher. Additionally, even including that pointspread loss AND their bowl loss to USC, the Illini are still a profitable 7-3 ATS the last 10 times they were listed as underdogs. I expect this one to come down to the wire once again and am grabbing the generous points. *Underdog GOM
Highprofitsports
5* game of the week Nebraska -14
3* Pitt -13
3* Cal -4.5
Power Play Wins (3-0 Friday)
Pitt -13
Wisconsin -26.5
Oklahoma St -7
Michigan -3
Ole Miss -7.5
Nebraska -14
Root
Millionaire - Alabama
Chairman - E. Carolina
No Limit - Utah
Money Maker - N. Mex
Northcoast College 900 POD (Marquee Play)
California (-5) over Michigan State
Greg Shaker
2 UNIT "Total of the Week"
Mississippi / Memphis Under 54.0
This will be the 5th consecutive season to bet the UNDER this this game. I am 3-1 in the previous 4 and the only one that went Over was the year before last, in a game that featured 17 points in the last 11 minutes and 53 total points. That makes 4 years straight that this game has gone UNDER this posted total. The Rebels D is going to be pretty good this year as they return a strong D line, led by pass rushing terror Greg Hardy. The entire defensive line is going to be very good this year. They do have some question marks at linebacker and the secondary as new faces will appear on the scene but summer practices have been very spirited and the work of the new guys have been good. Jeven Snead takes over at QB for Ole Miss and the home folks are very excited by his potential. But this team will have some offensive growing pains establishing their new offense. Memphis will have a new QB as well and even though he will have an experienced offensive line, and some very good recievers, he will have to go into Oxford to face an Ole Miss squad that is going to be very motivated to re-establish themselves as one of the better D's in the league. The Tigers have a brand new Defensive coodinator and Tim Walton has a lot to work with. His team does return 9 Defensive starters and they are going to be much improved. This contest is a Big Rivalry, more so for Memphis, and they will come to play. I have personally seen the way the ebb and flow in this series and the way things have gone and there is no doubt, that this line is set too high. It has been set this high due to what Memphis has been all about the last 2 seasons. It is set this high because the Rebels collapsed on D last year. It is business back to usual for this one and 55 points is going to be hard to obtain with these two programs that have a lot of players who played with each other in High School. This will be a hard hitting game as usual, and barring some D scores, it should fall UNDER this number. UNDER is 15-6 last 21 Rebel Games, and here comes another one