PlusLineSports
Baltimore vs TBay
TBay -1.5
Ross Benjamin
15* GOW
USC @ Virginia
Play: USC –19.5 (15*)
The Trojans are loaded for bear once again and will be hungry to get back to the BCS Championship game in 2009. The quarterback situation has been up in the air because of the physical status of the incumbent starter Mark Sanchez. He is now listed as probable but just in case highly touted Mitch Mustain a transfer from Arkansas is not a bad second option. The Cavaliers were hit hard by graduation and the early departures for the NFL. They will be hard pressed to stay with this Trojan team for 60 minutes because of a huge gap in talent and depth. This will be statement game for USC to show the rest of the country they will once again be a force to be reckoned with nationally.
Any non-conference home underdog of 13.0 or more in their opening game of the season that has won 9 or more of their last 22 games is 1-15 ATS since 1980. If they are playing an opponent that won 9 or more games last season then this angle goes to 0-10 SU and ATS with favorite winning by an average of 32.1 points per game. Play on the USC Trojans minus the points as my College Football 15* Top Play Blowout of the Week.
EZWINNERS
NCAA FOOTBALL
5 STAR: (149) UTAH (+3) over Michigan
(Risking $550 to win $500)
3 STAR: (159) WESTERN MICHIGAN (+14) over Nebraska
(Risking $330 to win $300)
3 STAR: (183) MICHIGAN STATE (+5) over California
(Risking $330 to win $300)
2 STAR: (187) ALABAMA (+4) over Clemson
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (180) EAST CAROLINA (+8.5) over Virginia Tech
(Risking $220 to win $200)
MLB
1 STAR: (961) ATLANTA (+$101) over Washington
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $101)
MARC LAWRENCE
Tcu @ N Mexico
4* N MEXICO
RON RAYMOND
CFB WEEK 1 SHOCKER!!
Utah +3.0
Seabass
10* Philly, Mets, Seattle
100* Steam Play Col / San Deigo Under
Football
300* Florida
100*California
50* OK State
30* So Cal
20*Syracuse, New Mexico , UNLV
AAA
Total of the Week
MEMPHIS / MISSISSIPPI UNDER 54
This will be the 5th consecutive season to bet the UNDER this this game. I am 3-1 in the previous 4 and the only one that went Over was the year before last, in a game that featured 17 points in the last 11 minutes and 53 total points. That makes 4 years straight that this game has gone UNDER this posted total. The Rebels D is going to be pretty good this year as they return a strong D line, led by pass rushing terror Greg Hardy. The entire defensive line is going to be very good this year. They do have some question marks at linebacker and the secondary as new faces will appear on the scene but summer practices have been very spirited and the work of the new guys have been good. Jeven Snead takes over at QB for Ole Miss and the home folks are very excited by his potential. But this team will have some offensive growing pains establishing their new offense. Memphis will have a new QB as well and even though he will have an experienced offensive line, and some very good recievers, he will have to go into Oxford to face an Ole Miss squad that is going to be very motivated to re-establish themselves as one of the better D's in the league. The Tigers have a brand new Defensive coodinator and Tim Walton has a lot to work with. His team does return 9 Defensive starters and they are going to be much improved. This contest is a Big Rivalry, more so for Memphis, and they will come to play. I have personally seen the way the ebb and flow in this series and the way things have gone and there is no doubt, that this line is set too high. It has been set this high due to what Memphis has been all about the last 2 seasons. It is set this high because the Rebels collapsed on D last year. It is business back to usual for this one and 55 points is going to be hard to obtain with these two programs that have a lot of players who played with each other in High School. This will be a hard hitting game as usual, and barring some D scores, it should fall UNDER this number. UNDER is 15-6 last 21 Rebel Games, and here comes another one
KELSO
High Rollers Baseball
10 units - Angels -1.5
Best Bets Baseball
5 units - Arizona
3 units - Marlins
FOOTBALL
100 units Florida - 34
Best Bets Football
5 units - Clemson
4 units - Arizona
3 units - La Laf
Cokin
3* W Mich
3* U Lafayette
4* Under UNLV
Under The Hat E Carolina
Window UAB
System Lou Tech
Big Shot Memphis
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider-CFB (1st of '08!)-TV game
My Las Vegas Insider is on USC at 3:30 ET. Al Groh's Virginia team won nine games last year but SIX were by five points or less with FIVE coming by two points or less (an NCAA record). Let's see what USC has been up to lately. In the last six years, there have been at least a share of six consecutive Pac-10 titles, six straight BCS bowls, three Heisman Trophy winners and two national championps. Pete Carroll was hired in December 2000 and after a 2-5 start, has gone 74-9! He's coached 30 first-team All-Americans and 11 first-round draft choices (four in 2007 alone). He has the best winning percentage (.844) among active coaches with at least five years of experience and if USC wins at least 11 games this season, it will be the first school to ever accomplish that it six consecutive seasons. Let's not forget the school's 34-game winning streak (tied for sixth-longest ever) that started after a triple-overtime loss to Cal and ended with the BCS title game loss to Texas. That was in the 2006 Rose Bowl when Carroll came within 19 seconds of becoming the first coach to win three consecutive major-poll national championships. Not bad stuff! The Cavs were merely average offensively in 2007 and won't be much better (if at all) in '08. QB Jameel Sewell is gone, leaving Peter Lalich (a true frosh LY, who had 61 attempts), senior Scott Deke and sophomore Marc Verica vying for time. It will help greatly if WR Kevin Ogletree (who missed 2007 due to injury) can contribute as he did in '06. The RB situation should be decent with the return to health of Cedric Peerman (585 YR / 5.2 YPC) plus Mikell Simpson, who played well down the stretch and finished the year averaging 5.0 yards per carry (570 YR). However, the Trojans had a devastating defensive unit last season and despite some huge losses, big things are expected from USC's defense once again in 2008. QB Mark Sanchez dislocated his left kneecap during warm-ups on August 8th but he is listed as the starter for this game. Even if he doesn't play all that much, I'm not worried. The Trojans are very deep at RB and any one of a number of players could step up this year. Virginia's D will be physically overmatched and while Al Groh is 34-10 SU at home with the Cavs (including 14-4 as a home dog), I expect Pete Carroll to want to blow out more opponents out this year. That wasn't the case in '07 and it cost USC in the final BCS standings. The Ohio State showdown is still two weeks away (with an off week up next), so expect a very crisp effort by USC in this one. Las Vegas Insider on USC.
Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner (12-2 finish LY)-Early game
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Yes, the Gators have Miami up next but the 'Canes are hardly the rivals they once were. Hawaii was last year's non-BCS 'darlings,' going 12-0 in the regular season with Colt Brennan running Junes Jones' offense to perfection. However, Brennan is off to the NFL and Jones is now at SMU. Taking over on the sidelines for Hawaii is last year's DC, Greg McMackin, in his first head coaching job. Senior QB Tyler Graunke is still dealing with academic issues and Brent Rausch, a third-year sophomore from College of the Desert, was announced as the team's No. 1 quarterback two weeks ago. However, he has been bothered the past week with tenderness in the right forearm and biceps of his throwing arm and is now listed as questionable for this game. The team's top-four receivers are gone from last year (three had topped 1,000 yards) and Hawaii's running game, which ranked 116th of 119 team's in '08 with 77.6 YPG (3.4 YPC), cannot be expected to "carry the load." The Hawaii defense did a solid job last year but only four starters return in '08. The real strength of the defense is the linebacking corps but the secondary loses both CBs and a starting safety from last year. Hawaii must make this long trek to Florida and then deal with the weather (especially the humidity) in "The Swamp." Florida is the AP's No. 5-ranked team but many SEC observers feel as if the Gators and not preseason No. 1 Georgia, is the favorite to take CFB's toughest conference. Speaking of Georgia, last year's Hawaii team (the best in school history) was totally outclassed by the Bulldogs in last year's Sugar Bowl, losing 41-10. The game wasn't as close as the score, as Brennan had almost "no chance" against Georgia's blitzes. The Gator D was young last year but this year returns eight starters. It will be way too athletic and fast for the Rainbows and even the backups will be able to control the line of scrimmage in the latter stages of the game. Heisman-winner Tebow became the first sophomore to ever win that award last year, becoming the first player in NCAA history to pass for more than 20 TDs (32) and rush for more than 20 (23) in the same season. WR Percy Harvin is expected to miss but Florida has plenty of talent in its receiving corps. Meyer is happy with his RB depth (he claims it's four-deep) and the offense, which was third nationally with 42.5 PPG, will score easily against a severely overworked Warrior defense. Weekend Wipeout Winner of Florida.
Larry Ness
15* Team Mismatch of the Week (185-97 two-year run!)
My 15* play is on the Arz D'backs at 8:10 ET. The Dodgers were tied atop the NL West with the D'backs back on August 15 but have lost 11 of 13 since then, including the team's current 0-8 mark on their current 10-game road trip (includes three losses at Washington, which owns MLB's worst record ar 50-85). The D'backs easily dispatched the Dodgers last night 9-3, ending their four-game losing streak and moving them 4 1/2 games ahead of LA in the division. The D'backs have survived this year by dominating their NL West opponents, going 35-19 (.648) against divisions foes, as compared to just 34-46 (.425) against the rest of MLB. In comparison, the Dodgers have lost eight of the 13 head-to-head meetings with the D'backs and have gone just 24-25 overall, vs the NL West. The Dodgers have been outscored 54-15 during their current eight-game slide and although they'll send their best pitcher to the mound in Chad Billingsley (12-10, 3.15 ERA), he's gone just 1-1 over his last five starts with the team losing FOUR of the five games, despite him posting a respectable 3.60 ERA during that stretch. LA gets more bad news knowing that Billingsley has had absolutely NO success vs Arizona this year, as in three starts, he's allowed 18 hits and 12 ERs over 14 innings (7.71 ERA) while going 0-3. The D'backs will send Dan Haen to the mound and Haren has done exactly what they had hoped he would do when they traded with the A's for him in the off-season. Haren's been the perfect No.2 man to the team's ace, Brandon Webb. Haren enters this game with a 14-6 mark (3.10 ERA) and is 10-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 14 home starts (team is 10-4). Stick with the D'backs here, as the Dodgers' slide continues. Team Mismatch GOW 15* Arz D'backs.
Las Vegas Insider-MLB (44-26 w/MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Fla Marlins at 7:10 ET. Carlos Beltran hit a grand slam in the top of the 9th for the Mets last night, giving them a 5-2 lead. However, nothing comes easy for this team, which blew a seven-game lead last year with just 17 games remaining. Luis Ayala got the save last night for the Mets but not before he allowed four hits and two runs in the bottom of the 9th. The loss continued Florida's recent slide, as the Marlins have now lost 13 of their last 20 games and fallen seven games behind the Mets in the NL East. Tonight's pitching matchup features the teams' two-top winners and who would have believed that, at the start of this season. New York's Mike Pelfrey was 3-8 with a 5.57 ERA last year, while Ricky Nolasco, after going 11-11 in '06, was hurt almost all of '07, making just five appearances (four starts). However, entering this game, Pelfrey is 13-8 with a 3.70 ERA and Nolasco is 13-7 with a 3.62 ERA. Pelfrey is 11-2 with a 3.00 ERA over his last 17 starts (team is 14-3) and is off back-to-back complete games. Meanwhile, Nolasco has also won his last two starts (21 Ks and just 2 walks) and the Marlins are 17-9 (plus-$1,174) in his 26 starts this year, making him MLB's fourth-biggest "money-maker." So what do we do here? Take the Marlins and Nolasco and here's why. Pelfrey has a 2.67 ERA in 15 home starts this year but in 11 road starts, has allowed 81 hits in just 61.2 innings, while his ERA is more than DOUBLE (5.40 ERA) what it is at Shea. Even more importantly, Pelfrey has had HUGE problems with the Marlins. He faced them once last year (lost to Nolasco, 5-3) and has taken them on three times in '08. In just 12.2 innings of work this year vs the Marlins (has yet to make it out of the 5th!), Pelfrey has allowed 21 hits and 15 ERs for a 10.66 ERA in going 0-3. Nolasco has been the team's most consistent pitcher all season and the Marlins just LOVE facing Pelfrey. Las Vegas Insider on the Fla Marlins.
Oddsmaker's Error (3-0 CFB start / combined scores of 132-44!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Michigan at 3:30 ET. Rich Rodriquez left West Va after last year's regular season to take the job at Michigan. There are 18 Div I-A schools with new head coaches this year and Rodriguez arguably has the highest profile, as Michigan is the winningest program in NCAA history with 869 all-time wins. Add to that the fact that Michigan has produced 40 consecutive winning seasons and has made 33 straight bowl appearances (both streaks are the longest active ones in the NCAA) and that almost solidifies the fact. Rodriguez went just 3-8 in his first year at West Va but 57-18 the next six years, leading the Mountaineers to six bowls (he didn't coach in LY's Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma). It won't be easy at Michigan in his first year, as the Wolverines return just three offensive starters and not a single skill position player. Then again, since Rodriguez is installing a new system, that may not be all that bad. On the other hand, Michigan's defense is expected to be top-notch, especially its front-seven. Utah comes in with lots of confidence off a 9-4 season and its seventh straight bowl win. QB Brian Johnson is expected to be healthy this year but I'm not as sold on him as others (shoulder?). He's got two very good RBs in Mack (1,204 YR) and the now healthy Matt Asiata, four starters back on the OL, plus a number of quality WRs. Utah's defense allowed just 16.8 PPG last year (ranked 5th) and was No. 1 in pass efficiency defense with a rating of 96.5 a year ago. Installing an entirely new offense with players who need to have time to grow into the new schemes is not an easy task, yet coach Rodriguez insists on making it happen in Ann Arbor. He, like everyone else in the CFB world, remembers what happened to Michigan in last year's season opener. The Wolverines lost 34-32 to Appalachian State last year and the team never really covered. Although expectations are high in Salt Lake City this year, this is one tough opening-game venue for the Utes. Utah is just 3-8 SU on the road vs BCS schools this decade in the regular season and as this number keeps "coming down," the Utes virtually need to win this game in order to cover! Michigan is rebuilding but with last year's upset by App State "fresh in the minds" of the players and Michigan's new head coach, I expect the Wolverines to play an outstanding game. At this price, Michigan is a bargain. Oddsmaker's Error on Michigan.
WUNDERDOG
MLB
Game: Seattle at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -1.5 runs +110
The Indians are the hottest tem in baseball right now as they are now 16-4 over their last 20 games. The Mariners are a horrible team they have not won two in a row on the road since beating the Padres way back in late June, and haven't won two in a row over an American League team since mid April! Jared Washburn has been awful and has pitched to a 6.23 ERA over his last three starts - certainly not the recipe to stop a hot team. Anthony Reyes has been masterful for the Indians, especially of lately. Reyes has produced a 2.50 ERA over his last three starts and has not allowed more than two runs in his four starts. The Indians should make this an easy one, and we will back them on the runline.
NCAAF
Game: Akron at Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin -26.5
Coach Bielema has taken this Wisconsin team to January Bowl games his first two years. But this may in fact be his best team yet. The offensive line is one of the best in the country and they have several backs that can do damage running the ball. They return 17 starters from a 9-win team a year ago. The Zips finished 3-5 in the MAC last season and return only 13 starters which is tied for fewest in the conference. They were outgained by MAC opponents last year by 70+ yards per game, and have just five defensive players returning. The defensive line struggled against MAC opponents so how will they fare versus one of the top offensive lines in the country? You get the picture. This is a lot of points but we see a Wisconsin rout here, and will lay the heavy points.
The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
89% COLLEGE FOOTBALL POWER PLAY WINNER
Kansas St -27
91% HIGH ROLLER BASEBALL WINNER
Arizona Diamondbacks
Robert Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #171 Oklahoma St. (-7) over Washington St.
Here we have two teams that are at two completely different stages. Oklahoma State is a dark horse in the ultra-competitive Big 12 which, to me, is the No. 2 conference in the country. Washington State is breaking in a new coach, an entirely new offensive system, and a new quarterback to replace the school’s all-time leading passer. The Cougars are a second-tier team in a conference on the decline (at least for this year) and I think they are still finding themselves. Also, Wazzou players have been dinged up over the past couple weeks and I’ve read reports that Wulff has said that the number of injured players is “unacceptable”. We already know they will be starting a freshman left tackle and they just dismissed DT Andy Roof this week. Further, this game is being played in Seattle, which negates some of the WSU’s home-field edge and will only make the OSU speed that much more lethal. Oklahoma State is an experience team, with a veteran quarterback leading a sharp, athletic offense. The Cowboys know what they’re doing, and coach Mike “I’m a Man” Gundy said he learned a lot from last year’s opening-week beat down at Georgia. He will have his Cowboys in Seattle a day earlier and they will be more prepared for this contest. We’ll take the talent and the more advanced offense in this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #185 Southern California (-19.5) over Virginia
This is one of those games that I’ve looked at and I just don’t see how it could NOT be a blowout. And it’s not that I am so overwhelmed by USC. That’s not it. It’s that Virginia caught lightning in a bottle in 2007 and were – literally – about a half-dozen plays away from being a 4-9 or 5-8 team. They lost their heart and soul in Chris Long and have been gutted on both the offensive and defensive lines. They lost their quarterback, two of their top three wideouts, and seven of their nine starting linemen. Much like the South Carolina game, this is a situation that I just don’t think that UVA will score more than 10 points. The Trojans, on the other hand, will find ways to score with their plethora of skill position players. Also, I like it that they are going on the road to start the season. It gets them out of their comfort zone, gets them away from everyone at home telling them how good they are, and makes them focus on just what’s going on between the lines. The ACC has been dreadful against other BCS schools and is 36-56-3 ATS in nonconference games over the last two years.
2-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (+13.5) over Tulsa
I think this number is a little thick for a Tulsa team that is trying to replace seven defensive starters and All-World quarterback Paul Smith. The Golden Hurricanes rang up nearly 700 total yards against the Blazers last year at home, but won just 38-30. Now they open on the road, against a more experienced, improved, revenge-minded UAB club, without their quarterback as a two-touchdown favorite? UAB is 11-1 SU in home openers dating back to 1996 and they are 8-3-1 ATS as a home dog over the last eight years. Tulsa is not a great road program, traditionally, going just 17-32 SU over the last eight seasons. And UAB has a history of early-season surprises. Remember their seven-point loss AT Oklahoma in 2006? Or how about their seven-point loss AT Tennessee in 2005? I remember both clearly. And I think that they might actually get the upset this time around.
2-Unit Play. Take #165 TCU (-6.5) over New Mexico
I am looking for a steep drop-off from New Mexico, a team that had a nice W-L record (9-4) but a weak ATS mark (5-7) last year. Basically, despite a host of talent and one of the better offenses in the Mountain West, the Lobos overachieved and got a bit lucky. Not this year. And not in this game. TCU has been dominating in conference over the last several years (34-14 SU in L6 years, 15-7-2 ATS in L3) and they have owned the Lobos. They have won three straight in the series by an average score of 38-16, including last year’s 37-0 blowout. New Mexico brings back just 10 total starters from that game, including just one offensive lineman, zero linebackers, and zero DE’s. TCU welcomes back 15 starters from the team that rocked the Lobos, including eight defensive starters. The Frogs have a load of experience and a great coach. If this game was played later in the year at this line I might stay away. But I just think that TCU is much further along than NMU and that will negate any home-field edge.
(I WOULD WAIT TO PLAY THESE NEXT TWO PICKS BECAUSE I THINK THE LINES MAY REACH +28)
1.5-Unit Play. #195 Louisiana-Monroe (+26) over Auburn
It’s a similar theme to the weekend: Auburn has a new offense, two new quarterbacks, two new coordinators, and are just 3-3 SU in their last six home openers. Yet they are laying nearly four touchdowns. Curious. Louisiana-Monroe has been spry under Charlie Weatherbie. Last year they covered as 26-point underdogs at Clemson and won as 25-point dogs at Alabama. In 2006 they went 3-1 as an underdog of 20 or more points, nearly winning at both Kansas and Kentucky, while also covering at Arkansas. In 2005 they covered at Georgia early in the year also, and in 2004 they covered at both Auburn and Arkansas as underdogs of more than four touchdowns. This is a veteran Warhawks squad, with eight retuning defensive starters and six three-year starters on offense. ULM is 9-3 ATS in the last two years as a road underdog and 12-5 ATS over the L3 years. They are also 8-3 ATS over the last four years as an underdog of 20 or more points, with most of those covers (7-2) coming on the road against SEC opponents. Tony Franklin knows UL-M from his days at Troy, but the Warhawks held Troy to two of its lowest outputs (24 each) the L2 years. That means Monroe might be more familiar with Auburn’s offense than the Tigers are!
2-Unit Play. Take #189 Idaho (+27) over Arizona
The Wildcats are just 3-14 ATS as a home favorite over the last seven years and just 1-7 ATS in the last three years. Idaho has covered its first game of the year – a road game as a huge underdog against a marquee BCS foe – in each of the past three years. Last year they actually put up nearly 200 yards of offense at USC to easily cover a 47-point line, losing 38-10. In 2006 they lost by just 10 at Michigan State (as 29-point dogs) and in 2005 they lost by just 12 at Washington State (as 29-point dogs). Arizona can’t stop anyone and the Vandals, like Arizona, return 10 starters on offense. Arizona is without a key offensive weapon and I have little, if any, confidence in Mike Stoops. And Willie Tuitama, for that matter. The Stoops-Willie combo is a bit shaky, and Stoops is just 2-5-1 ATS in nonconference games in his tenure at U of A. And that doesn’t count three shaky wins over Northern Arizona in non-lined game (agv .win: 20 points). Arizona has also won seven straight home openers, but just by an average of 20 points. I think Idaho can score just enough to keep this one interesting and keep us in the back door.
Have you seen IndianCowboys 5* today? Thanks a bunch and Great Work.