Sports Gambling Hotline
Miami-Florida at FLORIDA -22
We are calling for a blowout in the Swamp tonight, as Miami pays a visit on Florida.
The 'Canes and Gators last met in 2004, with Miami rolling to their 6th straight series win. That should be plenty enough motivation for the Gators tonight, and the fact Florida just whipped up on Hawaii last week at home, and has a bye due for next week should only have Florida that much more focused.
Miami is in a rebuilding mode with just 8 starters back from last year's team, and are just 12-24 against the spread since the 2005 season.
The Hurricanes are also winless ATS their last 5 playing non-conference teams away from home, while Florida sports a money-making 6-1 spread mark as the home chalk their last 7.
This one has the makings of a blood-bath, as Florida will want to show their in-state brother just who the boss is.
Lay the lumber as the Gators rip apart the 'Canes.
Play on Florida.
5♦ FLORIDA
Bobby Maxwell
Texas A&M -2½ at NEW MEXICO
Today we're on the college gridiron with a comp selection on the Aggies as they travel to New Mexico to take on the Lobos.
The Aggies were absolutely humiliated last week in a shocking home loss to Arkansas State. They've been ridiculed in the media and around campus and there is no way they are going to drop a game to New Mexico tonight. Go ahead and lay the chalk with Texas A&M.
The Aggies fell 18-14 at home as an 18-point underdog while New Mexico was at home falling to TCU 26-3 as a six-point underdog.
Texas A&M turned the ball over four times against Arkansas State and had trouble stopping the rush, giving up 5.7 yards a carry and 255 yards.
New Mexico turned the ball over three times and had just 175 total yards, including just 45 yards on 25 carries. The Lobos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last five after an ATS loss and 3-9 ATS at home against teams with a losing road mark.
The Aggies know how to bounce back after a loss, going 13-3-1 ATS following a straight-up loss and 7-2 ATS after an ATS loss.
We're looking for Texas A&M to have a big game on defense and might just pitch a shutout. Play the Aggies to get an easy victory.
4♦ TEXAS A&M
Stanford at ARIZONA STATE -14
Arizona State has dominated this rivalry lately,winning three of the last four games, including a 41-3 blowout win at Stanford a year ago easily cashing as 15-point favorites. Look for the Sun Devils to come out tonight and score too many points for Stanford to keep up with.
The winner in this series usually puts up the points with the winner not scoring less than 29 points in any of the last 10 clashes. Over the last two years Arizona State has outscored Stanford 79-6, and covered whopping spreads both years.
Arizona State crushed Northern Arizona last week 30-13 and senior QB Rudi Carpenter threw for 388 yards and a TD.
Stanford beat Oregon State 36-28 as a three-point home 'dog but got some breaks down the stretch that kept this game from going to OT. The Cardinal are in ATS slumps of 6-14 in Pac-10 play, 1-9 in September and 8-13 as an underdog.
The Sun Devils are 20-8-1 ATS in September games and 10-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
Play Arizona State big at home. This is a 25-point win for the Sun Devils.
4♦ ARIZONA STATE
Jim Feist
TEXAS
Another tough game for UTEP and Head Coach Mike Price, after a 42-17 loss at Buffalo last week (and a LONG road trip). Most worrisome is a defense that allowed 484 yards, including 263 yards rushing....and here comes Texas! Texas has junior QB Colt McCoy, who had a strong 2007 season (3,303 yards, 65% completions, 22 TDs and 18 picks) and ran for 492 yards. The defense brings in new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. Muschamp has been fiery, demanding a lot. "He just brings a lot more fire," linebacker Roddrick Muckelroy said. "He wants it done one way, so you if mess up, he's going to be right there with you." McCoy passed for three touchdowns, ran for another and the No. 11 Longhorns coasted to a 52-10 win over Florida Atlantic last week. Texas is 34-6 SU, 27-12 ATS the last three seasons. Play Texas.
Dave Cokin
TEXAS
I know this game is huge for UTEP. They're going to have a big crowd on hand in El Paso, and shocking the Longhorns would be the ultimate glory for the Miners. Only one problem. They're terrible, especially on defense. I can't see how UTEP will have even moderate success slowing down a Texas attack that looked really strong last week. I know Florida Atlantic was beat up physically going into that game, so the blowout was no shocker. But off UTEP's miserable showing at Buffalo, it's entirely possible the Miners are even worse than I projected, so I'll be expecting the blowout here. Texas minus the number.
Info Plays
MICHIGAN ST -21
After losing to the Cal Bears by 7 points last week in their opener, the Michigan State Spartans will bounce back with a dominant home win over Eastern Michigan Saturday. The Spartans are 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS against Eastern Michigan in four meetings since 1992. Michigan State last beat Eastern Michigan 52-20 at home in 2006. The Spartans have their best team in recent memory, and they put up 31 points and 402 yards of total offense against a solid Cal defense last week. Eastern Michigan is 0-8 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992. Eastern Michigan is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games. This game is a complete mismatch and at the end of the day, the scoreboard will reflect it. Bet Michigan State at home.
Northcoast Sports
Early Bird
ALABAMA -28½
Econo Play
TEXAS TECH -10
College Dog of the Week
DUKE +6
4* Power Play
AUBURN -20
Mountain West Play
NEW MEXICO
Big 12 Play
OKLAHOMA
Bobby Esposito
50,000 Dime
ARIZONA STATE
Eddie Roman
10,000 Dime
WAKE FOREST
Jack Burnet
25,000 Dime
SAN DIEGO STATE
Damon Roberts
7,500 Dime
MEMPHIS
Erin Rynning
20* Southern Miss / Auburn Over
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR SAT
LA DODGERS-120
KC-123
John Ryan
Miami-Florida / Florida
5* graded play on Florida - Ai Simulator shows an 81% probability that Florida will win this game by 22 or more points. AiS also shows a 90% probability that Florida will outgain Miami by a MINIMUM of 2.0 yards per play and also gain a MINIMUM of 450 total yard converting into a MINIMUM of 6.5 yards per play. Note that Florida is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. AiS further shows a 93% probability that Florida will score 28 or more points and a 75% probability that they score 42 or more points. Notet that Florida is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points since 1992. Miami is off a 52-7 blowout win over Charleston Southern. Miami is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Converseley, Florida is off a nice win fo their own defeating Hawaii 56-10 and covering a 36 point spread. Note that HC Myer is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992.
California / Washington State
5* graded play on Washington State - Ai Simulator shows a 78% probability that WSU will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. if you had my Thursday night shocking winner on Vanderbilt whereI also added a 1.5* money line amount at +350, this play shapes up in a near identical framework. If available I suggest adding another 1* amount and expect to get near +400 or even a little more for this wager. AiS also reveals an 85% probability that WSU will score 28 or more points. Note that Cal is just 23-52 ATS (-34.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Cal has been a losing investment in this role noting they are 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has hit 114-58 making 56.5 units for 66% over the past `10 seasons. Play against a road team versus the money line in conference games, returning 5 or less offensive starters facin an opponent returning 8+ defensive starters. WSU has a strong history of playing at full potential in home openers. The Cougars have won seven consecutive Martin Stadium openers, and 14 of their last 16. Since the formation of the Pacific-10 Conference in 1978, the Cougars have played their first Martin Stadium game of a particular season against a league foe nine times. WSU is an even 4-4-1 in those games. Take WSU.
UAB / Fla Atlantic
5* graded play on Florida Atlantic - Ai Simulator shows an 82 % probability that FA will win this game by 14 or more points. FA has hardly had any games where they have a solid chance to win bog adn also score a ton of point. HC Schnellenberger will make certain that his team is fully perpraed adn focused for this opportunity. AiS shows an 88% probability that FA will score 18 or more points. Note that FA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Interesting to note too is the betting pubic has been dead wrong most of the time when the moving the line in FA games. The public has a record of 29% ATS for a 9-22 mark ATS 1992 when moving FA lines. This line opened at 14.5 adn is currently offered at 12.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. Take Florida Atlantic.
#1 Sports
Oregon State (0-1) The Beavers opened a very tough schedule (face 8 bowl teams) with a 28-36 loss at Stanford despite out-gaining the Cardinal 490 yards to 301 with mistakes (3 turnovers and 100 penalties) the deciding factor. A real issue in the early going for Coach Mike Riley’s (47-39 in 8th season) team will be a defense that replaced its entire front 7 (combined 9 career starts) and was pushed around for 210 rush yards and 2 scores in their opener. Blazingly DEs 6’2” 238 senior Victor Butler (Hendricks Watch List) and 6’3” 245 senior Slade Norris give up anchor in favor of quickness leaving DTs 6’1” 302 senior Pernell Booth and 6’1” 293 sophomore Stephen Paea to hold the point in front of an undersized linebacker corps led by 6’1” 233 senior MLB Bryant Cornell (11 tackles vs. Stanford). Maybe this group will mature but for now the veteran backfield must lead. 6’1” 196 senior LCB Keenan Lewis (35 starts) is a big hitter that can support the run while 5’11” 178 senior RCB Brandon Hughes’s (32 starts) cover skills earn him a place on both the Thorpe and Lott Watch Lists. The return of 5’11” 212 junior FS Al Afalava (suspension, 25 starts) gives this unit a huge boost alongside of 5’10” 208 senior SS Greg Layborn. Offensively, Oregon State is much better positioned and will soon get even better. 6’3” 317 senior LT Andy Levitre (Outland, Lombardi, 26 starts) and 6’3” 286 senior LG Adam Speer (14 starts) have the blind side handled and may be joined this week by the 26 career starts of NFL prospect senior RG Jerry Perry (Outland, Lombardi) who missed Stanford with a knee injury and senior C Marcus Henderson who is recovering from mononucleosis. We’ll keep our eyes on the situation. At the trigger this season is 5’11” 220 junior QB Lyle Moevao (34 of 54 for 404 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT last week) who started and won the final four games in 2007 and has trimmed down considerably in the off-season. Targets are aplenty with returning starters 5’11” 179 sophomore WR Darrnell Catchings and 6’0” 186 senior WR Sammie Stroughter (12 for 157 and 2 TD last week) plus 6’1” 209 senior WR Shane Morales who lit the Cardinal up for 12 catches, 151 yards, and a score. Twin brothers 5’7” 193 freshman Jacquizz and 5’7” 180 sophomore James Rodgers are each threats to catch the ball out of the backfield, in the return game, and perfectly compliment the raw power of 6’1” 240 starting RB Ryan McCants. Posting another 9-4 season is out of the question and a new kicker (Kahut) and punter (Hekker) could cost the crew from Corvallis close games.
Penn State (1-0) The Nittany Lions pounded the Chanticleers of Coast Carolina 66-10 to open the season to earn Coach Joe Paterno’s 373rd win with 6 players scoring touchdowns and 15 red shirt freshmen getting playing time. Defense has been this school’s hallmark (top 15 points and yards allowed each of last 4 seasons) but this year they have the offense to match. 6’2” 235 senior QB Daryll Clark (11 of 14 for 146 yards and TD), who made his first career start last week, will need time under the tutelage of quarterbacks coach Jay Paterno but you couldn’t ask for a better line to learn behind. All five 2007 starters return including All-Big 10 first team 6’1” 300 senior C A.Q. Shipley (Lombardi, Outland, and Rimington Watch Lists) and All-Big 10 second team 6’2” 296 senior LG Rich Ohrnberger while 6’3” 294 sophomore Stefan Wisnewski (son of PSU standout DL Leo and nephew of PSU All-American OL and NFL Pro Bowler Steve) has beaten out Mike Lucien at right guard. The Lions have a deep stable of young backs led by the trio of 6’1” 211 sophomore Evan Royster, 5’10” 194 freshman Stephfon Green, and 6’2” 211 sophomore Brent Carter that combined for 27 carries and 226 yards with 5 scores in the opener and will carry the bulk of the load against the Beavers’ suspect front seven. As QB Clark settles in, the returning senior receiving triple threat (combined for 142 catches in 2007 and 85 career starts) of 5’10” Deon Bulter, 5’11” 171 Jordan Norwood, and 6’0” 199 Derrick Williams (3 career kick return TD including 89-year last week) will improve their current shared standing among the top 5 of Penn State all time reception leaders. Keep your eye on sophomore WR/TE Brett Brackett who is a tough match up at 6’6” and 234 pounds. Penn State’s defensive line will again be stout against the run at 284 pounds per man led by returning starter ends 6’2” 262 junior Maurice Evans (2007 first team All-Big 10 plus Bednardik, Nagurski, and Lombardi Watch Lists) and 6’1” 273 senior Josh Gaines. Throwing against the Lions will also be difficult with 4 seniors in the defensive backfield including physical returning starters 6’0” 197 FS Anthony Scirrotto, 5’10” 192 LCB Tony Davis, and 5’10” 190 RCB Lydell Sargent. Throw in returning senior K Kevin Kelly (59 of 84 career field goals) plus All-Big 10 first team P Jeremy Boone and Joe Pa’s squad has as good of shot as any to earn a BCS bowl come January.
SELECTION: Ok, so the Nittany Lions will certainly be the better team at Beaver Stadium on Saturday but 16½ points? An inexperienced Penn State quarterback, the possible return of key Beaver offensive linemen, the sure return of S Afalava, and a running clock indicate that number is too big. Take Oregon State +16½.
SPORTS MEMO
ED CASH
MIAMI (OH) +14.5 AT MICHIGAN
Recommendation: Miami
FAIRWAY JAY
EAST CAROLINA +9 AT WEST VIRGINIA
Recommendation: East Carolina
TIM TRUSHEL
EAST CAROLINA +9 AT WEST VIRGINIA
Recommendation: East Carolina
DONNIE BLACK
NORTHWESTERN AT DUKE +6
Recommendation: Duke
JARED KLEIN
MINNESOTA +4.5 AT BOWLING GREEN
Recommendation: Minnesota
BRENT CROW
SOUTHERN MISS AT AUBURN -18
Recommendation: Auburn
Ethan Law
MINNESOTA at BOWLING GREEN
One of the more interesting week 2 match-ups, is also one of the more obscure ones. Minnesota (1-0 SU & 0-1 ATS) plays its second consecutive game against a MAC opponent when it travels to Bowling Green (1-0 SU & 1-0 ATS) to play the Falcons. Bowling Green enters this game off their stunning 27-17 victory over #25 ranked Pittsburgh, which was fantastic news for us this weekend because that result alone added some significant value to this line and the sharp were quick to notice that with some early heavy betting on Minnesota when the line first came out. Despite the win over Pittsburgh, a close examination at the box score reveals (that despite getting the win) that the Falcons were actually dominated in that game, losing the yardage battle 393-254 and also first downs 27-15! So just how exactly did Bowling Green (a two touchdown underdog) win a game with just 254 yards of total offense Simply put, they just capitalized on the plethora of mistakes made by Pittsburgh who simply gave the game away with three fumbles and one interception in their 10-point victory. As many of you know, turnovers are the great unknown when handicapping football games, and thus are the ultimate equalizer that allows lesser teams to win games that would otherwise be lopsided mismatches. The win, surprised many of my competitors who believed that Pittsburgh would roll to the win, so the publics perception on this Bowling Green team is much higher than the actually quality of this team. Meanwhile, the public also noticed that Minnesota, (in the box score) barely got by at home against Northern Illinois 31-27 scare at home by scoring the deciding touchdown with just 22 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter. But again, the final score is not something I necessary look at because when you look inside the stats we often see the true story. Despite the final score, the real story in the game was Minnesota?s solid offensive and defensive play. Indeed, the Golden Gophers starting quarterback Adam Weber completed 64 percent of his passes for 298 yards and two touchdowns and even more perhaps (even more impressive) was the fact that he threw no interceptions and wasn?t forced to serve as the team's leading rusher. Running back Duane Bennett ran the ball 18 times for 92 yards and two touchdowns at an impressive 5.1 yards per carry, which could be problematic for a Bowling Green defense that gave up 130 rushing yards to it last weekend. Even more encouraging, has been and will be the improving defensive unit of this Minnesota team under new defensive coordinator Ted Roof. Despite allowing 27 points to Northern Illinois, this is still a defense that that held Northern Illinois to just 72 yards on the ground for an average of just 2.3 yards per carry, which is terrible news for this Bowling Green team that managed just 64 yards on the ground last weekend.
Getting back to my original hypothesis, the results from last weekend will not be lost in the minds of the casual bettor (the one that loses 92.6% of the time historically). Simply put, the public sees the impressive upset by Bowling Green on the road against a ranked team, but (in cases after case) they will inevitably fail to see is the that the Falcons were dominated in the box score and only won because of poor ball-handling by the Panthers. It is also significant that Bowling Green and Northern Illinois play in the same conference, since that allows the public to easily assume Bowling Green should win Saturday. The Gophers struggled mightily just to pull out a last second win at home against a Northern Illinois team that was just 2-10 last year, and are not expected to be appreciably better this season. Bowling Green on the other hand finished 2007 8-5 and went to a bowl, and have very legitimate MAC conference title hopes. Simply put, the logical assumption is to take the small home favorite that needs only win by a touchdown to cover the spread. Seriously, how can the Gophers stay within 7 points when they could barely beat lowly No Illinois at home Obviously the public is falling into this trap as over 75% of all bets taken to this point are on Bowling Green according to the most recent figures on betting tracking sites, yt the line has moved in the opposite direction away from the public, so its clear to see where the bookmakers are going with this one. They simply want more and more money on the home favorite coming in on this game for a larger payday this Saturday.
From the situational standpoint, Minnesota appears to have all the edges in this contest. The Gophers have revenge from last year's 32-31 loss in the Metrodome to these same Falcons. In that game, Minnesota fell behind 21-0 and rallied valiantly to just fall short in an overtime thriller. That loss is still fresh in the minds of these Gophers and certainly provides significant motivation for them on Saturday. Meanwhile Bowling Green is coming off their stunning week 1 upset (is probably still celebrating) which is an ideal spot for a letdown. Technical history suggests the the above mentioned prose is more than just a theory, as teams coming off SU upset wins as 7 plus point underdogs are just 6-19 ATS (24%) as non-conference home favorites in game number 2 of the season. Staying with the technicals it is also important to note Bowling Green is a terrible 0-6 ATS (-$660 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons. According to Pregame.coms resident trend guru Mark Lawrence, Bowling Green is also a money-burning 2-9 ATS in its previous 11 home games and game two non-conference favorites off a SU underdog win of 7 or more points have cashed in only 6 of 25 attempts. In start contrast, Minnesota is a very impressive 16-3 SU (84.2%) against MAC opponents. In addition, this match-up marks just the sixth occasion where a Big 10 team has taken the underdog roll to a MAC squad
Getting back to situational spot here, Bowling Green also hasa very difficult scheduling spot here as they have an upcoming game against Boise St (10-3 last year) next week, and you could certainly make a case for saying this is a flat spot in the Bowling Green schedule, and a classic sandwich situation for Bowling Green. Fundamentally, Minnesota should have edges on both sides of the ball as they young defense (one that will be ultimately vulnerable against some of the other Big team 10 teams) will not be pushed around by this undersized MAC team. Some critics of this pick will have concern over Minnesota's ability to stop the potentially dangerous passing attack of Bowling Green, but its important to note that last weeks game was the first action some of their young secondary players saw so they should be better prepared against this more vanilla Bowling Green offense. If you isolate last weeks game and take away the touchdown passes totaling 143 yards against Northern Illinois (that accounted for 42% of the total offense) the Minnesota defense gave up. If Minnesota can match (or even come close) to the play solid run defense again this week, they will make the Bowling Green offense more one dimensional than they would like to be, which in turn will allow the high powered Minnesota offense to score enough to not only cover this spread, but win this game outright by a comfortable margin. Anyone that watched the Bowl Green/Pitt game noticed how many times Pitt quarterback Bill Stull missed wide open receivers. Even with is inconsistent accuracy in that game, Pittsburgh still passed for 264 yards, though that number could very easily been over 400 if Stull had the talent to exploit the weak Bowling Green secondary. If the Gopher receivers are as open this week as Pitt's were last week, Weber will have a highlight reel type of game.
In summary, I expect the improved Minnesota defense to make adjustments in coverage to minimize the big pass plays. Bowling Green will get their points for sure, but I just cannot see their week secondary containing the very talented Adam Weber from Minnesota. Coming off a huge upset win, which cannot be overstated (one that added at least 3 points to this line), I expect Bowling Green to have a letdown this week. In what should be a very exciting high scoring game, we will take the points with the bigger, more talented Big-10 team in this spot. Rough Rough as this dog bites!
Verdict: Bowling Green 28, Minnesota 34
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON MINNESOTA +6
Toledo Rockets at Arizona Wildcats
Verdict: Toledo 21, Arizona 28
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON TOLEDO +23
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE NON CONFEREBCE GAME OF THE YEAR
Pittsburgh -13
Dr. Bob
2* Florida
2* Minnesota