CKO
11* N Dame
10* Minn
10* Wisc
10* Buffalo
Rocketman Sports
MIAMI OH +14.5
Larry Ness
20* Non-Conference GOY (1st GOY play TY / 7-1 start to CFB '08)-Sat
My 20* play is on Penn State at 3:30 ET. Oregon State opened the '08 season with a conference road game at Stanford, losing 36-28. The Beavers had a chance late but fumbled the ball away at the Stanford goal line, with just under 50 seconds remaining. QB Lyle Moevao impressed with 404 yards passing and three TDs but he also threw two INTs (one returned for a TD) and also botched a swing pass which resulted in a Cardinal safety. WR Sammie Stroughter missed of most of LY with an injury but looked great in his first game of '08, with 12 catches for 157 yards and two TDs. Fellow WR Shane Morales, who had just 16 catches in '07, almost matched that total in his first game of '08, with 13 receptions for 151 yards. However, OSU's running game, which last year featured Yvenson Bernard (1,214 yards / 13 TDs), gained just 86 yards on 28 carries. Things hardly get easier for OSU this week, as the Beavers must travel to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. By the way, it should be noted that Oregon State is the only BCS school which is being asked to open the '08 season with back-to-back road games. Penn State opened its '08 season with a 66-10 win over Coastal Carolina. While it's impossible to make too much of that win, it should be noted that the 66 points were the most scored in an opener by a Penn State team since 1926! I was NEVER a fan of QB Anthony Morelli and senior QB Daryll Clark was a solid 11-of-14 with 146 yards (one TD / no INTs) in the team's opener. He's made even better by a trio of WRs in Butler, Norwood and Williams, who are now all seniors. PSU rushed 43 times for 334 yards in the easy win, as four players ran for 60 yards or more, led by redshirt freshman Stephon Green's 89 yards with two TDs. The Penn State defense owns a veteran DL and 2ndy and should have little trouble with the OSU running game (sans Bernard) and will be fore-warned about Moevao, after his 404-yard effort vs Stanford. OSU's defense allowed Stanford only 301 total yards but 210 of those came on the ground. I guess that should come as no surprise, as while OSU led the nation in rushing yards allowed in '07 (71 YPG / 2.1 YPC), the team returns just THREE defensive starters in '08, including NONE of the team's front-seven! Let's note that OSU traveled to Cincy last year and lost 34-3, traveled to Boise St in '06 and lost 42-14 and visited Louisville in '05, losing 63-27. That's three non-conference road losses by an average margin of 31.7 PPG. That margin sounds about right to me here, as well. Non-Conference GOY 20* Penn State.
Jeff Bonds
Triple-Dime Bet
Air Force +3.0 vs Wyoming
This Mountain West Conference matchup has been dominated by the road team of late and that's perfectly fine for the Air Force Falcons.
Air Force has won the last two games of the series and has compiled an IMPRESSIVE 8-1 all-time mark in conference openers since 1999.
The Falcons continued their offensive roll from 2007 in its openers - rolling along for 433 rushing yards against Southern Utah. That led for Air Force to continue its scoring ways, as they've scored over 30 points in six straight games - the best such streak in the conference and third-best in the nation. They've actually averaged 39 points over that span.
Wyoming's 21-20 win over Ohio simply wasn't very impressive and the Cowboys are 4-5 in MWC openers. The Cowboys are 2-2 when opening the conference season against the Falcons, but they've managed to win those games by just four points total.
In a close game - Air Force has a tremendous kicking game that may be the BIG DIFFERENCE in this contest if needed - with Ryan Harrison.
The Cowboys are 3-18-1 ATS in their last 22 conference games and the Falcons are 9-1 ATS after rushing for more than 200 yards. That works when the Cowboys have LOST OUTRIGHT in their last nine games when being outrushed.
Take the points - You will not need them though!
Special K Sports
20* Arizona State (Game of Week)
20* Florida Atlantic
20* Bowling Green
20* Central Michigan
20* Notre Dame
Brandon Lang
20 Dime East Carolina
5 Dime Syracuse
FREE - Mississippi
Jim Feist
Wipeout Winner
Fla Gators
Scott Spreitzer
Mismatch GOM
Kansas
Matty Baiungo
So Mississippi vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn -17 ½)
In his write-up against Southern Miss last week, Kevin hit on a lot of negatives facing them this season. Unfortunately though, those shortcomings did not come to light last week in their 51-21 win over UL Lafayette. But Southern Miss will get exposed this week in their visit to SEC country and Auburn. It was easy for the Golden Eagles to put-up impressive numbers facing Sun Belt talent, but reality will set in and things will not be easy in game two.
After lighting-up opposing defenses in 2004 and 2005, Auburn’s offense fell off by 8 points per game in both 2006 and 2007. For all the praise offensive Al Borges got in the good years, he quickly became the scapegoat for the bad and he’s now out of town. Head coach Tommy Tuberville brought in Tony Franklin to revamp the offense. Franklin was last leading the Troy offense to 34 points per game, and that’s the exact number the Tigers scored Saturday against Louisiana Monroe. They ran for 321 yards while gaining a whopping 7 yards per rush. And they’ll once again do plenty of that in this game against the very young and inexperienced defensive line of Southern Miss. Knowing that UL Lafayette rushed for 263 yards on over 6 yards per carry, there’s no way Southern Miss can stop Auburn’s ground game. The rushing success will allow Franklin to open-up the passing game too, something he didn’t do in the opener. Bottom line is this; Auburn will move the ball at will in this game, whether it is on the ground or through the air.
And don’t expect the Southern Miss offense to be anywhere close to their production of last week. New head coach Larry Fedora has been around, and he definitely knows how to call an offense, but the Auburn defense has way too much speed and talent for his team. Quarterback Austin Davis will be making his first collegiate road start, and going against that is a long term angle that works well. The Tigers pitched a shutout last week while holding Monroe to just 220 total yards, and they are quite capable of doing it in back-to-back weeks. And much better Southern Miss teams have been crushed at SEC sites over the last two years, losing by a combined score of 73-26. This looks like another romp for the Tigers. Go With Auburn.
Steve Merril
Oregon State vs. Penn State
Play: Over 46
Oregon State returns just 3 starters on defense this season and it appears they are much weaker as they allowed Stanford to rush for 210 yards last week and score 36 points. Penn State is a much stronger offensive team than Stanford and the Nittany Lions should have plenty of offensive success today, especially after scoring 66 points and gaining 594 total yards (8.6 yppl) in their season opener last week. Oregon State is also a solid offensive squad as they scored 28 points and gained 490 total yards (6.0 yppl) last week. The Beavers were especially strong through the air as threw for 404 yards (7.5 yppl). Look for continues aerial success today as Penn State’s weakness is a mediocre pass defense. The Nittany Lions will also be without their best pass rusher DE Maurice Evans who has been suspended and led the team with 12.5 sacks last season.
Karl Garrett
Connecticut at TEMPLE +7
Early action today in the City of Brotherly Love, and I am backing Temple plus the points to take it to Connecticut this afternoon.
Last season the Owls went up to UConn as the +30-point underdog, and nearly won the game outright before falling 22-17. Temple is on a 5-3 straight up run their last 8 games, and Al Golden's team is 10-4 against the spread as the home underdog their last 14 in that role.
The Owls have also covered the last 4 meetings with the Huskies dating back to the 2001 season, and the Huskies do have a huge revenge game to look ahead to next week with Virginia.
This is just a dicey spot any way you slice it for UConn, as Temple is brimming with confidence after their 35-7 rout at Army last week, and the serious revenge angle in their corner after last season's bitter loss to the Huskies.
G-Man taking the points today in Philly.
3♦ TEMPLE
Drew Gordon
Mississippi +7½ at WAKE FOREST
Like most people, I was impressed by this Wake Forest squad in their Week 1 blowout win at Baylor. However before we start heaping praise on them, try and remember, it was just Baylor. Like many teams playing cream puffs in their first week, don't make the mistake of overestimating a good, but not great Demon Deacons squad. They'll get their first true test this afternoon, and while they'll most likely win, covering is a different story. Note, Wake Forest is 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite against a non-conference opponent!
Mississippi is no Baylor, they're strong in secondary on one side of the ball, and rely on a big and experienced O-line on the other side. New head coach Houston Nutt uses a balanced offense that saw Ole Miss rush for 216 yards and pass for 222 yards in their 41-24 win over Memphis last week. Its this balance, behind QB Snead and RB Bolden, that keeps the Rebels in this contest, coupled with a cohesive O-line playing in mid-season form right now.
Not much negative to say about QB Riley Skinner, who looked great against Baylor, and continues to make a name for himself. However, two things should worry Wake Forest-backers: A. The Mississippi secondary is a major step up from Baylor, featuring all upperclassmen. In other words, don't expect another easy 3 TD performance from Skinner in this one. And B. The Wake Forest run game looked like the weak link last week, rushing for 156 yards, but on 44 carries, for a meager 3.5 yards per rush average... Simply not good enough to keep the Rebels defense honest.
Bottom line, for as good as Wake Forest looked last week, do not make the mistake of thinking things will be just as easy this week against a much tougher, much more talented opponent in Mississippi. Coach Nutt has this Rebels team believing, and while they may lose today on the road, they will not go down without a fight, grabbing the cash in the process!
Take Mississippi plus the points over Wake Forest in afternoon college football action.
2♦ MISSISSIPPI
REAL ANIMAL
Pick title: 2* Miami of Ohio +14 1/2
After watching Vanderbilt take apart South Carolina in the 2nd half on Thursday, maybe it wasn’t so bad that Miami of Ohio was only out-gained by the Commodores by 20 yards last week. Also not bad considering Redhawk QB Daniel Raudabaugh threw three interceptions, Vanderbilt scored on a 91-yard punt return, and the visitor was only called for two penalties. Certainly Utah is a solid team. But how many MWC squads in the past 20 years come to the Big House and beat Michigan? The Wolverines had 11 first downs and it was apparent, until the 4th quarter, they were clueless under the new system put in by Coach Rodriguez. The spread offense produced 11 first downs and 36 yards rushing. Mike Hart normally had 36 yards in a quarter. Also don’t be misled by Michigan’s 4th quarter comeback. It was significantly aided by a Utah fumble, a blocked punt, and penalties called on the Utes (15-for-137). If Utah didn’t kick four field goals, the score would have been lopsided. Michigan is a very young team, especially on offense. They will have serious growing pains learning the Rodriguez approach. To make matters worse after losing their two stud receivers in Manningham and Breaston to graduation, last week their best active receiver, Greg Mathews, is doubtful this week because of an ankle injury sustained against Utah. Miami of Ohio is an experienced team with 17 starters back and that’s what you need to rebound from the Vanderbilt game. It’s always a big deal for a MAC team to travel into the Big 10. The RedHawks are 5-1 ATS as a visiting underdog recently after an upset loss as a favorite. Teams with 17 starters or more returning to a team are 25-9 ATS in game #2 if they lost the opener SU and ATS. This figures to be a low scoring game (total 40 ½) and two touchdowns with change looks very appealing. Michigan is 9-14-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 24 in Ann Arbor. They are 2-7 ATS recently when hosting non-Big 10 teams and 1-3 ATS versus MAC teams. Take away turnovers and special team mishaps and Miami of Ohio played Vanderbilt even. Normally that wouldn’t be a big deal but knowing Coach Spurrier is 0-2 SU the last two years against the Commodores has me believing Miami can stay competitive here. It certainly isn’t the first time a Michigan number is inflated.
Purelock
CFB Arizona State
MLB Yankees
John Fina
Selection: Pittsburgh -13.5
Reason: Put us down on Pittsburgh -13.5 for our Free MLB Selection on Sunday. Today Buffalo will be on the road as they take on Pittsburgh. We will lay the points with Pittsburgh! Even after the abysmal and painfully disappointing opening loss to Bowling Green, coach Dave Wannstedt was still backed by Pittsburgh’s Athletic Director Steve Penderson; typically a bad sign in any season. This game was the first one since last season’s unbelievable upset against West Virginia. That game left coach, team and fan alike with immense optimism for the Panthers this year. The Week #1 loss served to severely crush those hopes , obvious in the Pittsburg media’s grim reports. This creates a situation of ’inside-out‘ with some over reaction in the marketplace because the 2 teams fell o far from the pointspread. Even though the Bulls beat the final spread by 21.5 points in Week #1 and the Panthers were defeated by 24 points, there is no need to substantially adjust the lines. Despite the fact that we’ve seen a lot of improvement from Buffalo, the Miners 42-17 loss was a result of disinterest rather than inferiority. UTEP’s apathy was due to anticipation for a rare opportunity to play Austin at home this week. The Panthers, despite Pittsburgh’s dampened spirit, actually played quite well. They managed 27 first downs and 393 yards and Pittsburgh held a solid offense to only 15 first downs and 254 yards at a scant 3.6 per snap. There downfall was the result of two things. First the Panthers lost a lot of momentum after their 14-0 early lead due to the too conservative offensive coordinator, Matt Cavanaugh. Second, there was the 4-1 turnover differential. The fact is that the Panthers are actually a good team and played a good game isn’t shown in this line. Pittsburgh is the more talented team, not to mention that they are bigger and faster than the Bulls. They have a lot to make up for this week and are urgent to prove it. It isn’t uncommon for bad teams to be even worse than they seem for the simple reason that their competitors don’t bother putting in their best efforts. But this week calls for a very profitable situation since the favorite in this pointspread range is after more than just a win. The Panthers are looking for a blowout win. Teams like the Bull’s do not experience this level of determination very often. With an off week coming up, the Panther’s are full of motivation while the Bulls are focusing more on next week’s conference opener against Temple University. Coach Turner Gill is canny enough to reserve the Bull’s energy for that game which is in the long term, more important for Buffalo. We expect that they will fall behind making concerns about effort from the back door futile, since the win is unlikely. We also expect a greater degree of accuracy from the Pittsburgh’s passing attack and the depth of the fledgling Bulls’s Line Backer Corps to be degraded by Panther’s excellent Running Backs LeSean McCoy and LaRod Stephens-Howling. This game has Pittsburgh blowout written all over it! Lay the points! Take Pittsburgh -13.5