Scott Ferrall
Cleveland -115 with Sowers over Verlander and the Tigers, who've completely melted down at the end of the yr--Leyland is suspended and not in the dugout, so jump on the Tribe
Halladay -135 and Jays over Lester and the Red Sox--Halladay has been unreal lately--almost unbeatable
Dodgers -240 over an Fran--LA is finishing off the D'Backs with the easy schedule at home this weekend--Take Kuroda here--he's been tough of late for Joe Torre's BLUE
Aaron Cook -135 and the Rockies over the D'Backs at Coors Field in the thin air
Nationals -105 and John Lannan over the Padres and Chris Young in DC
TAKE MILWAUKEE OVER CINCY (NO MATTER THE ODDS) WITH CC SABATHIA GOING FOR THE BREWERS AGAINST CUETO
BONUS SNAGS : A's over Mariners in Oakland because Carlos Silva BLOWS! (No early line)
YANKS OVER BALTIMORE--LOOK FOR THE SWEEP THIS WEEKEND AT THE BRONX IN THE FINAL GAMES EVER AT YANKEE STADIUM
NCAAF
Vandy +5.5 from Ole Miss
Mississippi St +8 from Georgia tech
Air Force +7.5 from Utah
Southern Miss -9.5 to Marshall
Houston -6 to Colorado St
Navy +5 from Rutgers
North Carolina -1.5 to Virginia Tech
Iowa +1.5 from Pitt
Florida St -4.5 to Wake Forest
Tulsa -10 to New Mexico
Army +7 from Akron
Maryland -21.5 to Eastern Michigan
Miami -3 to A&M
East Carolina -7.5 to NC ST
Texas -30.5 to RICE
Utah St -4.5 to Idaho
TCU -24 to SMU
Florida -7.5 to Tennessee
UNLV -3 to Iowa St
Stanford -9.5 to San Jose St
UTEP -6 to New Mexico St
UCLA +1 from Arizona
Middle Tenn +5 from Arkansas St
Minnesota -6.5 to FAU
Ted Sevransky
Army +10.0
Sometimes, there are very legitimate reasons to support some of the worst teams in college football. This is one of those times. Yes, Army is ranked #120 out of 120 teams in my latest college football power ratings. Yes, the Cadets have lost to Temple 35-7 and to New Hampshire 28-10 in their first two ballgames, both right here at West Point. But if Army is going to win one game this year, it’ll be this Saturday – quite simply, this is their spot.
Head coach Stan Brock flipped out following the ugly loss to New Hampshire: “I'm embarrassed. I'm ashamed -- not that we lost to the University of New Hampshire, because they are a good football team, but by the way we did it…. In the second half, when things started going bad, I think there's some guys [who] quit. ... I'm ashamed. I apologize to the United States Military, Corps of Cadets, anybody really who watched that game. That's not the way that these kids need to play this game.”
Army has had two weeks to prep for Akron, and their starting quarterback, Carson Williams, has been upgraded to ‘probable’, while the Zips are caught in an ugly sandwich spot between a 17 point home loss to Ball State that opened their MAC campaign, and an in-state rivalry game against Cincinnati next week. The Zips struggled against Army last year, eking out an eight point win at home. Their defensive front has been decimated with injuries, and frankly, I’m not expecting their best effort here to begin with. With the betting marketplace seemingly in love with Akron, betting them up all week, this is one spot where a play on the worst team in college football makes perfect sense.Take Army.
Nelly
Minnesota – over Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic beat Minnesota by three points 42-39 last season in Florida. In that game Minnesota had seven turnovers and still nearly rallied for the win. The Gophers may well be one of the worst 3-0 teams in the nation but it is huge progress from a year ago and this is a game that a more experienced Minnesota team will be able to win handily. The Gophers were actually a larger favorite last season on the road and Minnesota has been somewhat impressive this season with convincing wins the past two weeks following a narrow victory in the opener.
Florida Atlantic won the Sun Belt last season but they were not best team in the conference. This game falls in a brutal scheduling spot with the third road game in four weeks for the Owls were soundly defeated in bad weather last week at Michigan State. The FAU passing game will have some success against Minnesota but the Gophers will be able to move the ball as well as QB Weber and the running game are starting to come together in year two of Coach Brewster’s spread attack.
The Gophers have also done a much better job of taking care of the ball this season and given all the extra chances that the Owls had last season it should be a much different looking game this year. Take nothing away from Florida Atlantic as they have built a solid program that should be a Sun Belt contender but given this situation and having a much more important conference game next week the Owls will likely fail to hang close here. Minnesota will not overlook this game at all after last season and this is a win that the Gophers need to get.
The most intriguing game on the schedule Saturday morning involves a Big East vs. Big Ten match-up between Iowa and Pittsburgh. This is a very closely lined game and will be a critical match-up for both teams but we actually expect a lopsided win for one side. This is game we like on many levels and this is the perfect package to start off your day. Nelly’s has been on a strong run winning four of our last five packages and hitting 65 percent since late August on this site.
King Creole Sports
Florida Gators @ Tennessee Volunteers
Play: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS
Grab the points with the Home Dog VOLUNTEERS based on a couple of situational Systems. Florida is off BB non-conference BIG wins against Miami-Florida and Hawaii. Tennessee comes in off a big win versus Southern Miss... and a road favorite loss against UCLA.
0-7-1 ATS since 1986: GAME THREE conference road favorites of points each (Play AGAINST Florida).
5-0 ATS since 1980: GAME THREE underdogs playing off a SU home win of 21 > pts... and a SU road FAVORITE non-conference loss (Play ON Tennessee).
Stephen Nover
LSU @ Auburn
PICK: Auburn +3
Auburn is the right side here, but I would back that opinion up by making sure to get three points instead of 2 1/2.
Yes, Auburn's offense is struggling with its new spread attack. Offensive coordinator Tony Franklin probably isn't selling too many DVD's these days.
But oh that Auburn defense. It's holding foes to an average of 53 yards rushing and five points. Auburn's defense has more experience and depth than LSU's. So we're getting points at home with one of the strongest defenses in the country.
LSU has good running backs, but inexperience at quarterback. This is a brutal venue for LSU's quarterbacks Andrew Hatch and Jarrett Lee to make their road debuts. Auburn has won 30 of 37 at Jordan Hare Stadium during the past six years.
Don't be surprised if Auburn does better on offense than expected. Quarterback Chris Todd played for Franklin in high school and is well versed in this offense.
LSU will be without injured linebacker, Darry Beckwith. He's one of the best linebackers in the conference. The Tigers also are breaking in new cornerbacks. They could be vulnerable to play-action in their first road start.
While Auburn has played Louisiana Monroe, Southern Mississippi and Mississippi State on the road, LSU has just played two home games - Appalachian State and Troy. So Auburn has played the stiffer competition.
Hurricane Ike didn't do LSU any favors, disrupting and distracting its schedule.
LSU has failed to cover its past four games. The Bengal Tigers are 2-4-2 against the spread in SEC road play during the past two plus seasons.
The home team has won the past eight matches in this series. The last time Auburn has lost two straight in this series was 1995-96.
Auburn has played the tougher schedule, has a strong home-field edge and facing LSU quarterbacks playing in their first road contest. Auburn's offense is more potent than it has looked.
Craig Trapp
Buffalo U vs. Missouri
Play:Missouri
WOW is all that can be said for Missouri so far. They have ran the score up so far on all foes. Expect more of the same here can't imaging anyone will play them close until they play OKL. Enjoy this one it will be a track meet.
Jimmy Moore
Rutgers @ Navy
Pick:Rutgers -5.5
Take the Scarlet Knights to recover from their embarrassing loss to North Carolina against the banged up Midshipmen this Saturday afternoon.
Sean Higgs
Florida Atlantic vs. Minnesota U
Play:Minnesota U -6.5
Take the Golden Gophers early in a nice revenge spot at home,
Colin Cowherd 11-4-2 YTD
Auburn +3
17-14
Michigan State -9
33-20
Arizona State +7
27-23
Tennessee +7.5
24-23
Cajun-Sports
NCAA “Tech” Game of the Week:
2 STAR SELECTION
Kent State +2½ over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
The Ragin' Cajuns seek their first win of the season when they host the Golden Flashes in a MAC vs. Sun Belt Conference clash Saturday night. Akron did get their first win of the season last week over 1-AA Delaware, 24-3. They opened the 2008 season with back-to-back losses to Boston College and Iowa State. Meanwhile, Louisiana-Lafayette opened the 2008 campaign with an embarrassing, 51-21 setback to Southern Mississippi, and followed that game with a tough, 20-17 loss at Illinois.
The Cajuns have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage, as they lost 5 of 6 Cajun Field and will now try to stop a Kent State team coming off its best offensive effort of the year. The defense for ULL has been unable to stop the run, as the opposition is pounding the Cajuns for a whopping 300+ rushing ypg. Overall the defense is allowing 487 total ypg, and that has led to a whopping 35.5 ppg.
The opening line of this game certainly caught our eye, as we look to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.
Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright.
This certainly has not been a good price range for Louisiana-Lafayette, as they are 0-5-1 ATS (-13.1 ppg) with a line between -3 and +1. These inter-conference meetings have not been kind to the Cajun’s conference as well. Sun Belt teams are 0-7 SU (-13.4 ppg) & 0-6-1 ATS (-9 ppg) vs. the Mid-American Conference when not favored by 8+ points since 2004.
Actually, Sun Belt Conference teams have done very poorly since the league’s existence in games with very tight lines in all non-conference games. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a Sun Belt Conference team (not a favorite of more than 3 points or underdog of 3+ points) vs. a non-conference opponent.
The Sun Belt teams in this spot are 0-10 SU & ATS, losing outright and failing to cover by an average of 2 TDs per game on each count. Last year, it was Louisiana-Lafayette hosting Ohio of the MAC and lost 31-23 as a 1-point home dog. The Cajuns qualify again as the PLAY AGAINST team, so we’ll take all the points we can get back the over looked Golden Flashes.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KENT STATE 28 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 24
NCAA 70% Super Situations:
Play Under CFB team against the total after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, 25-2 Under since 1992 (92.6%)
PLAY:Mississippi State / Georgia Tech UNDER 36.5
Ross Benjamin
Troy @ Ohio St.
Play:Troy +21.0
This is a mentally fractured Ohio St. team after being drubbed last week in their big showdown with USC and being blown out in the last two BCS Championship games. Troy comes off a week of rest and has a very good group of first unit athletes. Ohio St. will most likely prevail but this one will be much closer than people may think. The Sun Belt Conference is the strongest it has ever been from top to bottom since its inception with Troy being one of the favorites to finish on top.
Any home favorite off a non-conference away underdog of 10.0 or more ATS loss in which they allowed 35 points or more, They failed to cover by 16.5 points or more, they were undefeated entering that game, and they have won 9 or more of their last 22 games overall is 0-10 ATS since 1980. If they are a favorite of 22.0 or less they are 0-7 ATS and lost 6 of those 7 outright. Play on Troy St. plus the points
Brad Diamond Sports
Rice at Texas
Pick:TEXAS
I actually came close to making the 'Horns a Wise Guys' Best Bet this Saturday, but line seemed high at the time (-30), however, because of the quarterbacking of Chase Clement the Rice Owls are gaining some attention on the Las Vegas Boulevard.
My first inclination seems a pure knee-jerk, knowing the Owls are 0-13 SU against BCS type programs, while forging a defense that can't stop anyone. How can a Big-12 power, underrated at that, be scratched from your card when they are 37-1 SU vs. Rice. Plus the margin of victory is huge with the 'Horns scoring 58, 52, and 51 the last three meetings. Texas has laid -40, -33 and -38 vs. Rice those encounters. Now the lines makers have, again, overreacted putting -28 1/2 up at his writing!
Recall, Texas had a bye week (Arkansas) because of the storm and should be ready to challenge LSU for the #6 spot in the polls, if the Tigers fall at Auburn. So, there is major incentive for Texas. By the way, at half-time UT will bring out some of the hero's of the recent storm along with the national guard.
Great Lakes Sports
Georgia at Arizona State
Play:Georgia Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs is coming off a tough conference game with South Carolina, and will be focus here in a non-conference encounter with the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Georgia Bulldogs is a very solid 9-3 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last three years, and they are 6-3 ATS when playing in September the last three years. The Georgia Bulldogs is also a very nice 6-2 ATS vs non-conference opponents the last three years, and they are 6-3 ATS off of a win vs a conference rival the last three years. We look for the Georgia Bulldogs to roll over the Arizona State Sun Devils in this non-conference showdown for the road ATS win & cover tonight.
Jim Feist
New Mexico @ Tulsa
Play New Mexico
New Mexico (1-2) is off a stunning victory, as RB Rodney Ferguson ran for 158 yards and two touchdowns and freshman James Aho tied a school record with five field goals to help New Mexico beat Arizona 36-28 on Saturday night. Ferguson also tossed a 25-yard trick play scoring pass to quarterback Donovan Porterie. The Lobos are as tested as any team in the country, playing TCU, Texas A&M, Arizona and now at Tulsa. Junior QB Donovan Porterie had a strong sophomore season, passing for 3,006 yards, 15 TDs, 9 picks, plus the balanced attack has power back senior RB Rodney Ferguson. New Mexico is 16-9 ATS as a dog. (2-0) Tulsa is just 4-9 ATS its last 13 games. An excellent spot for the tested visitors who have a veteran, balanced offense. Play New Mexico
K & B Sports
UCLA had a subpar performance, in a big way, in its previous game on both sides of the ball. This team lost that game 59-0. UCLA is 0-2 ATS following a game where it was shutout since 1999. Also, UCLA is 1-3 ATS following a game it allowed 52 points or more since 1999. Look for a subpar offensive and defensive performance from this team.
PLAY ARIZONA