Chip Chirimbes
Stanford vs. Washington U
Play: Washington U -3.5
The Huskies who come off a bye week and dominated Stanford in last season’s road contest with over 530 yards including 388 rushing. Washington has faced three top-25 teams to open the season with all three opponents featuring explosive offenses along with a pair of Heisman quarterback candidates. Now they face a mediocre signal caller in Stanford’s Tavita Prichard, who completed just 50% of his passes last season and is no better this year at 53% for 469 yards and 4 INT’s in four games. Washington spent the bye week focusing on its run defense and will likely force Prichard to beat them. I look for the Huskies to smell blood in the water and savior one of their few opportunities to score a big home win.
Tony George
Alabama vs. Georgia
Play:Alabama +6.5
I really have seen little from Georgia that impresses me yet, as hyped up as they were in the preseason polls. Even more confusing to me is all the hype over their QB Stafford, who is a good QB, but nothing like a Heisman candidate he was touted as. Looking at his numbers, if he was in the Big 12 conference, he would be the 8th rated QB on stats alone! Georgia is pulling out all the stops here, and wearing black jerseys for this game, and creating a great deal of buildup for this crucial SEC tilt. Bear in mind that under Head coach Nick Sabin, Alabama has not lost by more than 7 points under his leadership.
With both defense's quite good, I still lean towards the Tide defense here as the better run stoppers, and at days end the running game will create the most opportunities for the team that can establish it best. Alabama runs it for 5.9 yards per carry, which is impressive, and they are off the total destruction of Arkansas last week. Georgia had to travel to Tempe and they beat a so/so Arizona State team by 17, which once again was hyped by ESPN as a huge deal for Georgia. The Sun Devils had lost to UNLV the week before. The Bulldogs barely escaped South Carolina with a win, and that game included some miracles for them to walk away with a win. Alabama is far superior to South Carolina.
Alabama's Glenn Coffe at RB is a great pounder inside and has speed and QB Wilson is solid, but not quite as good as Stafford for Georgia. I do however respect and admire RB Moreno for the Dogs with 455 yards so far, but this will be his toughest test to date, facing a very good stop unit. I expect Georgia to pass it more than run it here, and if the Tide can rush the passer with success, it plays well into their plans of being a blue collar workhorse type unit in this game. In a low scoring SEC bragging rights battle, with a Tide team used to playing tight games with the better defense, this is a 3 or 4 point game one way or the other. An outright Alabama win would not shock me in this game folks, as this is the win that Nick Sabin has been waiting for since his arrival at Alabama, the one signature win he needs to raise the bar for the Tide faithful.
Alabama 17 Georgia 14
Scott Rickenbach
Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros
PICK: Under
The Reds and Astros have been two of the lowest scoring teams in the majors in recent weeks! Cincinnati is averaging less than four runs per game in their last 16 games. As for Houston, they’re averaging just 2.6 runs per game in their last 10 games. When you factor in both club’s struggles at the plate, along with the way the pitchers should dominate in tonight’s match-up, you have the perfect scenario for a pitchers duel. Johnny Cueto of the Reds has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six outings! The Cincinnati right-hander also has compiled a stellar 1.35 ERA in his last four road starts! The Astros continue to “squeeze the sticks” a little too tight as they’ve struggled at the plate recently while trying to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
The Astros won’t be the only team struggling at the plate tonight as Roy Oswalt gets the start for Houston. The big right-hander is an amazing 22-1 in his career against the Reds with a 2.51 ERA as he’s held Cincinnati to a .234 batting average! Oswalt is a perfect 11-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his home starts against the Reds and, keep in mind, this is a Cincy lineup that no longer has Ken Griffey, Jr. or Adam Dunn! Like Cueto, Oswalt also comes into this start in rock solid form as he’s 8-2 with a 1.67 ERA in his last ten starts! Even though the Astros could win and still be eliminated tonight, there is no doubt they are approaching this game as a tight, must-win affair and Oswalt can be expected to do his part. The key to the low score is going to be another fine start from Cueto as the Astros bats continue to labor at the plate! Play UNDER the total in Houston on Thursday night!
Bryan Leonard
Minnesota at Ohio State
Big step up in class for the Gophers who have played twice against the MAC and faced teams from the Big Sky and Sun Belt Conferences. Minnesota's offense has looked good but they have taken advantage of a whopping +11 turnover margin. After winning just a single game last year they have started the season 4-0. But that success looks to be short lived as they are without last year's leading rusher and they have battled major injuries along the offensive line. QB Adam Weber is a talent but we can't see him having any time to throw against this Ohio State front seven. Beanie Wells is expected back for Ohio State this week and his addition should be a major plus for this offense. Tyrelle Pryor opened up the Buckeye passing game last week and he should have big success against this weak Minnesota secondary. The Gophers finished last year 115th in the nation against the pass and they enter this game last in the Big 10 this season despite playing weak competition. Ohio State has cashed four of the last five meetings in this series and they have won their last three conference openers by an average of 33 points per game. After three poor offensive showings we expect the dual threat offense of Ohio State to come to life against a much weaker defensive squad. PLAY OHIO STATE
DAVE MALINSKY
Army / Texas A&M
PICK:4* ARMY
Games in this pointspread range have to be broken down differently from others, because of the obvious talent mismatch. These ATS outcomes are decided more based on the intensity of the teams, and it should not come as a surprise that we have landed here, because the service academy teams have been good to our pockets for a couple of decades when we could isolate the right spots. These are disciplined athletes that are going to play hard for the full 60 minutes regardless of how the scoreboard reads, which is exactly what you want in an underdog in this price range, while at the same team the superior team is also more inclined to back off early, and not embarrass a service academy. With Army this week we get even more.
The Black Knights are 5-0 ATS as underdogs in the state of Texas the past six seasons, and we have put many of those results into our portfolio. There is a prime reason for those showings – they annually get more players from this state than anywhere else, and this season is no different, with 27 Texans on the roster, including five starters. These trips mean something special to these athletes, and this one even more so because of Hurricane Ike. A lot of those Army players are from areas that were impacted, and we will let coach Stan Brock take it from there -
“It will be a big deal because this is the first time that these guys have seen their families since the hurricane went through there. Hopefully, some of the freshmen can step up in practice and make the road trip. We have six freshmen that we are hoping can travel so they can go home and see their family.”
The energy that those freshmen brought to the practices this week is something that will be infectious for the entire team, and veteran starting guard Brandon Cox, a Texan, echoes the sentiments - “Going home, seeing a bunch of family, having everyone come to the game, it’s going to be fun, going to be exciting. I’ve been to Kyle Field two or three times with my grandfather, he’s an alum there. I’ve been to a couple of games and the atmosphere is unbelievable.”
The key on the field is that the Black Knights also help to tactically get the game home as well. Brock has gone to an all-out option package on offense, looking to slow the game tempo down whenever possible. That has led to some stodgy offensive snap counts through the first three games, keyed by an Army offensive ratio of 161 running plays vs. only 39 passes. That will not change here – they will stay with the ground attack regardless of the game situation, and that will severely reduce the opportunities that the favored Aggies will have to get near this pointspread. Making it even more difficult is that A&M simply is not very good, particularly in the area of rush defense, which matters so much this week.
Texas A&M has already lost outright to Arkansas State on this field, and was not competitive in last week’s 41-23 loss to Miami, a game that was nowhere near what the scoreboard showed. The Aggies scored on the first snap from scrimmage, a 62-yard touchdown pass from Jerrod Johnson to Mike Goodson, and then were bullied by an embarrassing 41-3 fashion until the Hurricanes backed off late in the game. Note that in the only A&M win it was a +3 turnover advantage at New Mexico that did the trick (the Lobos led 370-236 in total offense), and that this defense is allowing 210 yards per game overland, at an alarming 5.7 yards per carry. That weakness enables Army to get some first downs and keep the clock ticking, which turns this pointspread into Mt. Everest. And even should the Aggies get a few big plays to get near the number, Mike Sherman is not the kind of coach to pile it on here, particularly with the Big 12 opener at Oklahoma State immediately on deck. He would be more than satisfied to get a win by far less than this spread, and to get his starters out of the game as early as possible.
Athlon Sports
Connecticut (+3.5) at Louisville
Louisville has bounced back from a dreadful performance in an opening-day loss to Kentucky to post consecutive wins over Tennessee Tech (51–10) and Kansas State (38–29). We don’t know quite yet how good (or bad) Kansas State is (the hunch is more bad than good), but the Cards played very well in the Thursday night win over the Wildcats. Victor Anderson posted his second straight 100-yard rushing game and Hunter Cantwell looked far more comfortable in the pocket. The challenge will be more difficult this week. UConn once again is winning games without much fanfare, doing so with a potent rushing attack and a very solid defense. Donald Brown leads the nation in rushing with 179.0 yards per game, but he is far from a one-man show. The Huskies boast several big-time running backs — some young, some old — to complement Tyler Lorenzen and the pedestrian passing game. In my opinion, the wrong team is favored in this game.
Connecticut 27, Louisville 21
Alabama (+6) at Georgia
We knew Georgia’s 2008 schedule was going to be brutal, but back in the summer we didn’t figure this early season date with the Crimson Tide would end up being such a big hurdle. Nick Saban’s club has been one of the nation’s biggest surprises, rolling out to a 4–0 record highlighted by dominating performances against Clemson in Week 1 and at Arkansas in the SEC opener. The strength of the team has been the rushing attack, with a host of talented ball-carriers operating behind a veteran offensive line. Georgia is a tough club to run on, however, so senior quarterback John Parker Wilson likely will be forced to make some plays down the field. Could this be Julio Jones’ coming out party? The freshman wideout has been solid when called upon, but the Tide haven’t really needed to open up the passing attack. Speaking of supremely talented freshman receivers, Georgia is getting a big (and much-needed) lift from A.J. Green, who has emerged as Matthew Stafford’s favorite target. In Stafford, Green and tailback Knowshon Moreno, Georgia boasts a trio of skill players that rival any in the SEC. Alabama is very good. Georgia is great.
Georgia 20, Alabama 17
Colorado (+6) at Florida State (Jacksonville)
One team is coming a thrilling overtime win over a (formerly) ranked opponent. The other team is coming off sobering 12–3 loss at home that featured some dreadful play on offense. Yet, Colorado (which beat West Virginia) finds itself as almost a touchdown underdog against Florida State, which managed only 220 total yards in a loss to Wake Forest. Yes, Florida State has the home field advantage, even though this game is being played in Jacksonville, but there isn’t much evidence (if any) to suggest that the Seminoles are the better team. They are still having major problems at the quarterback position. Against Wake, true freshmen Christian Ponder and D’Vontrey Richardson combined to complete only 33 percent of their passes and were intercepted a total of five times. The Noles’ defense played well, but this team needs to get better on offense to challenge for the Atlantic Division title. Colorado isn’t likely to challenge for a division crown in the Big 12 North, but the Buffaloes continue to makes strides under Dan Hawkins. They have a pair of talented true freshman tailbacks in Rodney Stewart and Darrell Scott, and quarterback Cody Hawkins has been steady in the first three games. Florida State will be by far the best defense CU has seen, but I think the Buffs will have enough to get it done on the road.
Colorado 21, Florida State 17
Tennessee (+6.5) at Auburn
These are not good times for Phil Fulmer. The man who delivered a national title at his alma mater in 1998 is under intense fire in the Volunteer State after a fourth straight loss to the hated Gators. It doesn’t figure to get much better in the near future, with trips to Auburn and Georgia looming. This team has talent, but the offense has struggled under new coordinator Dave Clawson, and the special teams have been poor. Auburn must rebound from an agonizing 26–21 loss at home to SEC West rival LSU. The Tigers have been outstanding on defense (as usual) but have been inconsistent on offense while adapting to Tony Frankin’s spread attack. Chris Todd showed some positive signs against LSU, throwing for 250 yards and a touchdown, but he was intercepted twice. Both teams are very good on defense and both teams are experiencing some growing pains on offense. Should be a typical SEC game.
Auburn 17, Tennessee 13
North Carolina (+7) at Miami
North Carolina’s hopes of reaching the ACC title game for the first time took a big hit when quarterback T.J. Yates injured his ankle in the third quarter of the Tar Heels’ 20–17 loss at home to Virginia Tech. Backup Mike Paulus, who completed 3-of-8 for 23 yards with three interceptions in relief, will make his first career start this weekend. Miami is coming off the biggest win of the Randy Shannon era, a surprisingly easy 41–23 victory at Texas A&M. Redshirt freshman Robert Marve looked very good at quarterback, completing 16-of-22 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns, and Graig Cooper rushed for 128 yards and two scores on only 16 attempts. We’ll know more about this team after Saturday, but the Hurricanes are looking like a legitimate contender in the Coastal Division.
Miami 24, North Carolina 14
Illinois (+14) at Penn State
The schedule hasn’t been overly taxing, but Penn State has been one of the most impressive teams so far this season. Thanks in large part to the emergence of senior Daryll Clark at quarterback, the offense is averaging over 50 points and 500 yards per game. And the defense has been impressive, too, giving up no more than 14 points in any single game. The Nittany Lion D figures to get its stiffest test from a potentially explosive Illinois attack. The Illini scored 42 in a season-opening loss to Missouri and 47 vs. FCS opponent Eastern Illinois but managed only 20 points (with only one offensive TD) in a sluggish 20–17 win vs. Louisiana-Lafayette. Over the last two games — against inferior competition — Juice Williams has thrown three interceptions and only two touchdowns. He will need to play mistake-free football to give his team a chance to win in Happy Valley.
Penn State 37, Illinois 24
Purdue (+2.5) at Notre Dame
Purdue, which lost in overtime in Week 2 to Oregon, is painfully close to being 3–0 on the season. But the Boilers, who escaped with a 32–25 win over Central Michigan last Saturday, could also be 1–2. Joe Tiller’s club is getting great production from tailback Kory Sheets (117.3 ypg), but senior quarterback Curtis Painter isn’t posting the type of numbers we are used to seeing. He hasn’t been bad, but he has yet to throw for 300 yards (after doing so six times last season) and has only tossed three TD passes. Purdue’s offensive balance should pose problems for Notre Dame. The Irish have struggled against the run and have had a tough time putting pressure on the quarterback, with only three sacks in three games. Jimmy Clausen has shown improvement at quarterback, but he isn’t getting much help from the running game. I’m not sure the ND offense is good enough to outscore Purdue, even at home.
Purdue 34, Notre Dame 24
Northwestern (+7.5) at Iowa
Northwestern is one of the undefeated teams that we still don’t know too much about. The Wildcats have defeated a bad Syracuse team, a decent Duke team (on the road), a FCS foe in South Illinois and a solid MAC team in Ohio. The offense hasn’t been quite as potent as we thought, but the defense has been better than expected. This week will present quite a challenge, however. The Cats will be facing the nation’s eighth leading rusher in Shonn Greene, who has rushed for at least 100 yards in each of the first four games. The Hawkeyes have been playing both Jake Christensen and Ricky Stanzi at quarterback this season. Stanzi, a sophomore, did not play in the second half of a one-point loss at Pittsburgh last week but is expected to get the start against Northwestern. Iowa has been terrific on defense, giving up a total of 29 points in four games; if the Hawkeyes are simply mediocre on defense, they should be in position to earn a spot in the top half of the Big Ten.
Iowa 20, Northwestern 14
Virginia Tech (+6.5) at Nebraska
It’s the first significant test of the Bo Pelini era. The Huskers have passed every test so far, but we haven’t learned too much about this team in wins over Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State. This is far from a vintage Virginia Tech team, but the Hokies are good enough to beat Nebraska in Lincoln. Statistically, Tech hasn’t been impressive, but Frank Beamer’s club has found a way to eek out 20–17 wins over Georgia Tech and North Carolina to open the ACC schedule with a 2–0 record. Nebraska hasn’t given up a lot of points (14.3 per game), but the Huskers have been a bit vulnerable against the pass, allowing 269.7 yards per game. However, don’t expect Virginia Tech to come into Lincoln and throw the ball all over the yard. Tyrod Taylor is winning games as the starting quarterback, but the Hokies are doing very little in the passing game. He has thrown for a total of 173 yards with no touchdowns and two INTs in two ACC games. If Virginia Tech can’t move the ball through the air, scoring points could be very difficult.
Nebraska 24, Virginia Tech 14
Wisconsin (-6.5) at Michigan
With Ohio State not dominating like we thought, the Big Ten race could get very interesting. Wisconsin, off to a 3–0 start, looks like a contender, but the Badgers are about to embark on a very difficult three-game stretch that features a road game at Michigan and home dates with Ohio State and Penn State. Wisconsin has been sharp in every phase of the game, most notably running the ball and stopping the run. If the Badgers can slow down Michigan’s ground game, led by freshman Sam McGuffie, they should be in good position to celebrate their first win in Ann Arbor since 1994.
Wisconsin 27, Michigan 18
Last week: 6–4 straight up (7–3 against the spread)
Season: 24–16 straight up (21–18–1 against the spread)
JB Sports
Oklahoma State -17.0
Under normal circumstances I would tend to look toward the big dog in this one. However, that's not the case this year, as Okla. St. will be highly motivated for this one. Okla St. went to Troy last year as a 10.5 point favorite and were embarrassed on national TV getting blown-out 41-23. They were off last week, therefore have had 2 weeks to prepare for the rematch and are catching Troy coming off a tough game last week at Ohio St. Look for Okla St. to roll in this one.